Long Game 95: The Fire of Ado's Light

[|TJ| he/him]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

how the f do you think i feel bro -.-

okay either you are auto or someone else (not drake) has claimed auto to you. or drake claimed frost or something to you. okay. 

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, |TJ| said:

okay either you are auto or someone else (not drake) has claimed auto to you. or drake claimed frost or something to you. okay. 

Clearly I am Aut, playing exactly how I did in LG83 because I'm way too Village oriented and then just referring to Aut as though Aut were someone else and having solving goodtimes. This explains why Aut seems to be more chatty to me than basically anyone else, yes.

[|TJ| he/him]

Just now, Kasimir said:

Clearly I am Aut, playing exactly how I did in LG83 because I'm way too Village oriented and then just referring to Aut as though Aut were someone else and having solving goodtimes. This explains why Aut seems to be more chatty to me than basically anyone else, yes.

im already confused enough without having to deal with your sarcasm kaaaas. sigh >> okay assuming the aut who claimed to you is someone else, why would they lie? perhaps they are hoid. i wonder if drake/aut/hoid have deal with them or something. 

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, |TJ| said:

im already confused enough without having to deal with your sarcasm kaaaas. sigh >> okay assuming the aut who claimed to you is someone else, why would they lie? perhaps they are hoid. i wonder if drake/aut/hoid have deal with them or something. 

No comment.

I need a drink. And an aspirin. Do you want one too.

Edited to add:

There's a reason it's called sarkasm smh

Edited June 22, 2023 by Kasimir

[|TJ| he/him]

Just now, Kasimir said:

I need a drink. And an aspirin. Do you want one too.

just finished lunch break. back to the grind it is for me. sigh. 

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

44 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

A) Drake is not in fact Aut
B ) Drake is a cursed murderpuppy with impulse control problems
C) I'm not drunk enough for this drek smh
D) All of the above
E) wait some form of all of the above but 'I'm not playing twenty questions about who Aut is but also what the f seriously just happened'

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Anyway TJ

Keeping it there on sheer damn principle for now smdfh

Aut my arse.

[|TJ| he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Anyway TJ

Keeping it there on sheer damn principle for now smdfh

Aut my arse.

i have no idea whats going on in your head. 

anyways, which hoid would convert archer+fadran? 

turtle/tlf are bout to be yeeted. tbb,wiz,szeth. need to reread the cycle in which xino died to narrow this down. no clue what hoid!walin would do either.

my actions:
n0 - siphon
d1 - nothing
n1 - siphon
d2 - nothing
n2 - siphon
d3 - burn invention (had this from start)
n3 - siphon
d4 - burn x
n4 - siphon
d5 - burn x
n5 - endowment on stink

[Kasimir he/him]

11 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

i have no idea whats going on in your head. 

HOW AM I STILL AUT TO YOU EVEN CYCLES LATER OF VILLAGING AS HARD AS I EVER HAVE IN MY DAMN LIFE

SMDFH

Totally voting you for at least the first 24 hours out of Principle.

[The Unknown Ajah he/him]

Oh wow.

And Drake, you are a liar liar pants on fire. 

Come on Kas, I was looking forward to people being randomly hopped to me.

Edit: @Kasimir, @DrakeMarshall, what are your plans? Are you guys going to stay on Threnody, or move.

I'm probably heading to Roshar irregardless of what you do, but I miss the Rave. 

Edited June 22, 2023 by The Bald Brandon

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

4 hours ago, The Bald Brandon said:

And Drake, you are a liar liar pants on fire.

I am no lyre! And my pants definitely aren't on fire at alll!!!

I am murderpuppy, scourge of the cosmere, dual vessel of Autonomy and Odium, destroyer of threads!

I can prove it >:(

[The Unknown Ajah he/him]

Just now, DrakeMarshall said:

I am no lyre! And my pants definitely aren't on fire at alll!!!

I am murderpuppy, scourge of the cosmere, dual vessel of Autonomy and Odium, destroyer of threads!

I can prove it >:(

Give me Investiture, it won't go anywhere you wouldn't want it to go, trust me :D.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

1 hour ago, The Bald Brandon said:

Give me Investiture, it won't go anywhere you wouldn't want it to go, trust me :D.

Bold words from a Hoid convert >:).

[Kasimir he/him]

7 hours ago, The Bald Brandon said:

Oh wow.

And Drake, you are a liar liar pants on fire. 

Come on Kas, I was looking forward to people being randomly hopped to me.

Edit: @Kasimir, @DrakeMarshall, what are your plans? Are you guys going to stay on Threnody, or move.

I'm probably heading to Roshar irregardless of what you do, but I miss the Rave. 

To be quite honest I'm having a terrible amount of difficulty giving a damn about anything right now in light of TJ Bhai's terrible betrayal and in light of whatever the f Drake thinks he's doing.

[Kasimir he/him]

Christ on a pogo stick this thread is frakking dead.

I'm probably high on whatever Drake's huffing, must be the Threnody rave crem so:

@|TJ| I trust you. So you say you've been on the mark for everyone who ain't me? (Not letting this go yet, Christ, stop paranoiding on me already.)

TBB lesgo

• Szeth is Village. End of. My response to Araris stands. I'm either Autonomy or Village. If I'm Autonomy, I'm a pretty Village-sided Aut, so my defense of Szeth shouldn't be weird, and you can check out the logic for yourself on N5.
• TJ is Village. Search your GM PM, you know this to be true. I'm not entertaining paranoid worlds where you or DeTess bussed Archer, and whatever if you're still huffing Me = Aut crack, I'll stick with my V!read of you. performative lies whatever blah blah blah, I'm done. If you're doing this to scam me, you're doing this to scam me, I don't really give a damn anymore.
• IDK about Araris. Honestly he still looks sus af to me off Archer's C3 and his N5 Szeth push but suppose I want to give him a chance for now. We know I get this way about Araris. (There are also reasons for this I wanna get into in a bit.)
• V!lean on Wiz. Tone stuff, re-engaged him in PMs, was prepping him as a bit of an ace up the Village's sleeve against Aut, but let's be real, whatever. I'm not in a very rally the Village mood this game, sorry not sorry. Agree with DeTess's reasoning about E!Wiz performatively voting v. Archer. Don't feel strongly about this.
• Technically E!lean on Walin. Mostly to do with Archer missing some easy shots, but Archer does that, and honestly before Archer and Mat sussed Walin for it, I V-read Walin.. Also roleblocked him last Night. Sorry not sorry. Don't know if I want to keep on the E!Walin read.
• We are going to lose Fae and Turtle this cycle, one way or another. I think this is pretty clear: no PHs and they are not checking back in. Or it's very unlikely.
• Seriously how high do you have to be not to work out Drake is Aut? Like I can get rantier about this but I thought it was pretty obvious like yes I have a thing for adorable murderpuppies where I'll take them home and shelter them but also like, Drake man, y'all know I do kayana things for bros, and my read of Drake was the most inconsistent thing ever where I had to repeatedly insist I had a gut Evil read of him because I wasn't gonna lie and V!read him for the Village but also wasn't gonna say anything more, resulting in me having to theorise he was AC even though that was just stupid as all hell. Good freakin' God. And don't @ me Szeth I may not have outing him but I kept going, "Are you sure though I really have to say I have a negative read of him" when you wanted to use Drake. You E read me then, which I get, but I Tried.

My view of the Village's overall strategic situation:

• Archer + Fadran is a frakking weird conversion profile that needs more work.
• We are committed, no matter what, to giving JNV extra time. Sorry not sorry, will oppose any player who wants to speedrun the game against JNV.
• We could theoretically simply not vote today. I am ok with relaxing thread pressure for a cycle because we are having two flips this Turn. I am not confident that Hoid hasn't actually been converting among low activity players because Fadran is a Choice I have more thoughts about later on. FWIW I don't think Fadran is an Araris choice.
• I don't think not voting is a good choice (so don't @ me dead people.) Largely because we can't stop hammers so it's stupid to relax.

When all's said and done, I don't have a rock solid V read on TBB and agree with DeTess about the possibility of an Elim bus on Archer because we now know the voting situation was the way it is.

So my view: either we lynch TBB this cycle or TBB manages to wrangle a tie. I don't really give a damn either way as both outcomes are acceptable to me. You felt and Mat felt the Archer vote had distancing vibes, so let's go with this. I trust you, you are also my bro and you say your reads have been dead on this game except, apparently, for me. And you V!read Araris early on.

Edited to add:

Oh yeah the c/p error thing was my fault. I basically phished Drake by sending him a link. So it was all my fault which is why I'm refusing to out or act against him but he's on openwolfing mode so whatever, screw it. Which is apparently my mood for this game.

Edited June 23, 2023 by Kasimir

[The Unknown Ajah he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

When all's said and done, I don't have a rock solid V read on TBB and agree with DeTess about the possibility of an Elim bus on Archer because we now know the voting situation was the way it is.

OK, I can't argue this fully because I am pretty annoyed rn for unrelatereasons, but I'll do a little and delete anything that's problematic. 

How many cycles do I have to pre-establish a suspicion before you can accept that I would be on that train regardless? You can look at any cycle, that is the earliest I get on. I had clearly been sussing Archer for a while. He had sussed me and seriously attempted trains on me.

Call it distancing all you like, but there's a reason elims distance that way, and it's because that's something that often happens between not e/e people. 

You can't count d1 for a multitude of reasons. Aside from self pres being the leading reason, the only way me and Archer can be teamed there is if you assume I'm Hoid. You know my actions, you know that I haven't had the opportunity to be Hoid/convert. 

So your only real data point is the Archer exe and what immediately proceeds it. If you look a my post times, just about the earliest I've gotten on was the same time as that Archer vote. So the timing cannot be AI. I could not have voted sooner. As a Villager, when you log on to find a player that you pretty openly e!read is up for the exe, do you seriously not vote them?

I've also been pretty explicit in the past (notably the QF64? that you fear so much) that I don't like bussing, especially later on in the votes because it's just too obvious. Do you think that I wouldn't just take the easy path and not vote that day. I almost certainly wouldn't be e!read for it, so why would a decide to do a super obvious bus?

Alright. I'm going to cut myself off there. Do whatever you will, I might be back with some alternative votes, but probably not.

Edit: This whole thing bothers me so much. I don't know why v!Kas has this constant sus of me against all logic or reasoning. But there is no way Kas is e. He could somehow be Auto relaying through Drake, but I very much doubt it. His "I caught Drake frolicking doing elimonic rituals in the woods" vibes are too honest. Ugh.

@Kasimir, did you get this reading from a PM/did someone convince you of this? Please answer honestly. Something about this doesn't feel right.

Edited June 23, 2023 by The Bald Brandon

[Kasimir he/him]

@The Bald Brandon: I'm going to shorten this to one response: if you don't like it, tie the vote. I'm absolutely happy to have my name in the ring to be tied against you. I'm very cool with a no lynch, and at this point, I really do not give a damn about dying. If a no vote was a viable option, I'd go for it, but as it stands, having a completely empty vote slate allows the Elims to do whatever and that's worse.

As of my last count, there are 66 expletives in Threnody that begin with f, some of which need to be ctrl+f ed, and most of them have to do with this game.

---

The promised conversion profile thoughts:

• Fadran is a capital C Choice. He hasn't been active since C2. This means that it's unlikely he was converted any later than N2. But at the same time, Archer was also acting pretty Evil by D2. So this makes Archer and Fadran likely early converts. 
   
• Comment: Fadran doesn't really feel like an Araris choice. (I'm not really sure he feels like a TJ choice either, tbh.)
   
• Theory/hypothesis: Fadran feels like a low-lying profile choice. I'm more tempted to think Archer was N0 and potentially, Fadran was N1. But N2 is still possible considering Fadran went silent after that. It feels like a conversion choice that was a direct response to not having a kill. This might imply (also my hypothesis for now) that the conversions of the AC team skew quiet/low-lying - possibly to try to avoid getting hit by controlled NKs.)
   
• It's possible to theorise that Archer's claim that the vocal players were all likely Village was meant to shield teammates. It's hard to speculate off two divergent datapoints, but let's look at who's left. It sure as hell ain't me, it ain't gonna be Szeth, Drake and JNV are immune to conversion. I currently V!read TJ. If we run with that theory, it functionally has to be in <TBB, Araris, Wiz.> And Fadran is off the wall as a choice, which skews closer to TBB or Wiz, who are players just unorthodox enough to consider a move like that. The flip side IMO is that if we're going off a conversion profile, TBB is a bit more in the pool than Wiz, due to the events of D4.
   
• I do still have Turtle as a Hoid candidate. (I could see a Fadran conversion coming from Turtle as well.) I don't feel Fae is a realistic choice, but anyway, Fae and Turtle are both on death row. The fact that I think at least one of them could be converted or Hoid is sort of why I'm okay with slow-walking this exe: I feel like the flip here is going to be extremely informative in terms of telling us more decisively about the conversion profile.
   
• I don't think the Wiz meta read is rock solid, btw, which is why I found it E!indicative that both Elan and Mat backed down. It's not as strong as they acted it was. That being said, I do think it's decent reason to V!read Wiz.
   
• We don't have very many active/vocal players left, which is why I'd like a bit more information before acting. For pretty obvious reasons if you think about what it entails. I'm also fairly transparent about my motives in terms of wanting to buy JNV more time, so I am alright with not being exceptionally aggressive today.
   
• I will say that off the D3 voting data, Araris is not a bad push either. I just don't really know because he doesn't have too much of a record in this game and kind of want to give him a chance. I am also fine with a tie between TBB and Araris.
   
• I feel that most of TBB's defense amounts to claims about his play more than claims that emerge in his play. Something that stood out to me was I think an earlier cycle claim in Roshar about having offered more reads and I checked the thread and just couldn't find any point where he proactively offered reads past that one of me. Things like that: telling me you've done X =/= having done X.
   
• I guess this is more directed at the dead people: yeah I'll admit I'm kind of indifferent. Honestly I'm pretty done with this game so I don't particularly care about getting sent to Valhalla. 

Edited to add:

One way or another, like it or not, as much as you can argue my play and shielding the murderpuppy hasn't been particularly Village, I am Village. DeTess died Village. I'm not entertaining an E!Szeth world and JNV is now Ruin. This means that if you search your own GM PMs ( @|TJ| and @The Bald Brandon) and say you're both Village as well, we have to accept that the conversion choice is either in <Araris, Walin, Wiz>, or within <Fae, Turtle>.

CBA if I forgot someone, if I forgot them, they probably belong with Turtle.

I lean V! on Wiz, sort of vaguely willing to buy V!Walin, and am sentimental enough to give Araris a chance (that but also do feel that votes aside, some of Araris's behaviour e.g. hopping to Roshar) don't really seem to fit an E!Araris world that well.

Long story short: I'm humouring TJ's reads, but also pragmatically the fact we are losing two players and can't do anything about it is significant where the game timer is concerned. Even more so since the <Turtle, Fae> flip probably helps us nuke a possibility about where the ACs are. Fadran is throwing me off just enough to struggle with the conversion profile, because if Fadran was a N2 convert (if we take his silencing point as conversion), then we still have N1 to account for, which is where <Fae, Walin, Araris> re-enter the picture. To say nothing about Hoid.

Fae did the N1 vote (I think?) - either N1 or N2 - that got her sussed the next day by Mat, so it's entirely possible she was an early convert as well if Hoid went thoroughly low-lying. (But again, that's a strategic choice I feel is reflective of <TBB, Wiz, Walin> and I lean V on Wiz for now.)

Not the most coherent argument, I love meds, but there you go. That's sort of my mess of thoughts at the moment.

Edited to add 2:

I guess the thing about the Roshar hop is I could see it from TBB or Araris on a Hoid team that has realised Fadran is not coming back to life, or they don't have the numbers to Shard grab. In that light, a team that stays on Silverlight might be more odd.

Edited June 23, 2023 by Kasimir

[Walin he/him]

I'll join in on the game again tomorrow. Still very busy today.

--------------------

Trukal made a quick phone call. "Oh, and how is Lorn Haemtes? To shreds, you say. Well..."

The conversation continued after that point, but the first few moments were a good indicator of how it would go. Some condolences, some bafflement (silently kept in), and some overall disappointment that now would be a bad time to ask about that zincmind medallion he had lent the man. Well, as far as personal survival went, he would probably be alright just having wakefulness available.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, The Bald Brandon said:

@Kasimir, did you get this reading from a PM/did someone convince you of this? Please answer honestly. Something about this doesn't feel right.

I'm running off the likely conversion profiles here, and TJ's posts a couple cycles back. I am not working off any PM here or any doc shenanigans.

I will add asking me to answer honestly doesn't really change things because I don't really know how you'd know if I were lying. But as a policy, I try not to frick around with lying to the Village too hard if I can avoid it because it just confuses your own team more.

[The Unknown Ajah he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

@The Bald Brandon: I'm going to shorten this to one response: if you don't like it, tie the vote. I'm absolutely happy to have my name in the ring to be tied against you. I'm very cool with a no lynch, and at this point, I really do not give a damn about dying. If a no vote was a viable option, I'd go for it, but as it stands, having a completely empty vote slate allows the Elims to do whatever and that's worse.

But I don’t want a no vote. At this point, I would almost rather die, but I need to get to d8 before I start to lose purpose. And I don’t want to vote you, I don’t want to give the elims the opportunity to exe you.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

It's possible to theorise that Archer's claim that the vocal players were all likely Village was meant to shield teammates. It's hard to speculate off two divergent datapoints, but let's look at who's left. It sure as hell ain't me, it ain't gonna be Szeth, Drake and JNV are immune to conversion. I currently V!read TJ. If we run with that theory, it functionally has to be in <TBB, Araris, Wiz.> And Fadran is off the wall as a choice, which skews closer to TBB or Wiz, who are players just unorthodox enough to consider a move like that. The flip side IMO is that if we're going off a conversion profile, TBB is a bit more in the pool than Wiz, due to the events of D4.

I'm being completely honest here, though whether or not you believe me is up to you. I would not convert Fadran.

My first conversion would be Mat. That means thatI would know from d1 on that I want Mat dead. I'm not sure what I would do as Hoid in that situation. Probably ignore him and try to get him exed.

Then... probably Araris/Archer because e!Archer can also be a beast, and Araris is Araris. 

Then one of Drake/DeTess, which could end up with me knowing three out of four faction leaders by d3. 

If any of those fail, I'd probably go for TJ/Elan or maybe Fifth.

Inactives just aren't worth it. But, again, whether or not you believe me is up to you.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

I feel that most of TBB's defense amounts to claims about his play more than claims that emerge in his play. Something that stood out to me was I think an earlier cycle claim in Roshar about having offered more reads and I checked the thread and just couldn't find any point where he proactively offered reads past that one of me. Things like that: telling me you've done X =/= having done X

I did the mobile equivalent of ctrl+f and didn't find this specific mention. If you can quote it, that would be great. I vaguely remember it as well, but couldn't find it. I'm pretty sure it was in reference to an unasked for Mat v read (yeah, yeah, yeah). And I don't think I've claimed anything that wasn't true, but I'm a little biased in that regard.

I do think I have an alternative at least some people can get behind. Drake may be playing nice for now, but that is going to change very soon I think, so allow me to suggest: VOCALS

Edit: That makes me a little happier. I was saying that to try to get you to not think "Oh well I came to this conclusion mostly on my own, I only had a few nudges here and there from Drake." And I was at the edge of sanity there, due to personal things happening today.

Would you be willing to say why you trust Szeth and TJ again? I know you have in the past, but I would appreciate not having to search for them.

Edited June 23, 2023 by The Bald Brandon

[Kasimir he/him]

7 minutes ago, The Bald Brandon said:

I do think I have an alternative at least some people can get behind. Drake may be playing nice for now, but that is going to change very soon I think, so allow me to suggest: VOCALS

Somehow I feel like taking the first action to break a ceasefire is the direct way to incentivise the friendly neighbourhood SK to stop being friendly, but y'know, that's just me.

8 minutes ago, The Bald Brandon said:

I did the mobile equivalent of ctrl+f and didn't find this specific mention. If you can quote it, that would be great. I vaguely remember it as well, but couldn't find it. I'm pretty sure it was in reference to an unasked for Mat v read (yeah, yeah, yeah). And I don't think I've claimed anything that wasn't true, but I'm a little biased in that regard.

@Devotary of Spontaneity Am I allowed to quote from a doc? Does this violate the c/p rule?

[The Unknown Ajah he/him]

Just now, Kasimir said:

Somehow I feel like taking the first action to break a ceasefire is the direct way to incentivise the friendly neighbourhood SK to stop being friendly, but y'know, that's just me.

@Devotary of Spontaneity Am I allowed to quote from a doc? Does this violate the c/p rule?

 

Ah, forgot about that. I would appreciate a more accurate reference to its location if it's not allowed. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

30 minutes remain in the day to get in your votes and actions!

ED1T:

Disregard! I am dumb!

Edited June 23, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

8 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

30 minutes remain in the day to get in your votes and actions!

ED1T:

Disregard! I am dumb!

I

What

Is there a Shard that can make time go faster

What just happened

[Ashbringer he/him]

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I

What

Is there a Shard that can make time go faster

What just happened

Somehow, Rollovet Returned.