Long Game 94: The Call of the Forest of Hell

[The Unknown Order he/him]

47 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

?

I think this misses as well that this implies he's fine with potentially killing a vig of either alignment - Village or Elim. Remember the SE protect kills and especially in Village vig world, Archer has no way of knowing that the Village vig attacking him would have protection. (Sart did not, or so it is theorised.)

We don't know this for sure. It's our hypothesis, and it's the best existing one in my view that doesn't overcomplicate things. It doesn't entail the Elim kill was prevented again necessarily - it could also entail that Wrath was triggered because the counter resets everytime Wrath is triggered. (Actually it'd have to be triggered, one way or another.) However, since Sart would have failed to successfully kill Archer, Sart basically had to have triggered a Shade Expert's protect for him to have been killed by the Shades. 

I still have my protect. Meaning I did not trigger Wrath.

I also think it's worth noting that Archer doesn't disagree that he was attacked, i.e. that he lost his claimed SE protect ability. This means we do have to account for an attack on Archer, which is currently hypothesised to have been Sart using a Crossbow.

Sorry, confused this with QF3 (I know, embarrassing) where there was multiple blobs of Glowpaste  

One more note.

Glowpaste is a Day action. If we hypothesise the use of a Spellbook:

-We had a 20% chance of seeing someone go insane in the N2 write-up. This did not happen. To be sure, 20% isn't that big, but it won't explain Alv.
-The user would've had to have targeted TKN in the Day. That's not the most significant thing but it rules out Alv, who used VitC.
-That's really long-distance set-up and the ability to tell TKN had Glowpaste somehow. Spellbook's too nifty to waste randomly redirecting people in the hopes it'll pay off, and changing during the Day is risky because if you go insane the next Turn, this implies at Night, at which point it should be obvious it was you.

@The Known Novel - Had a PM with anyone? Any way someone could've guessed you had Glowpaste?

Pretty much implies that all V!Archer worlds require us to take seriously the fact that a protectless Shade Expert is significant enough that the Elims let TKN lie to get us to waste two exes on Archer, after which we kill TKN, but hey, it's totally worth it.

Nope. I did kinda hint at it n1, but it would be a wildshot.

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him]

14 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Ty. Passing is a Night action!

Don’t worry, I know

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, TheAlpha929 said:

Don’t worry, I know

Cheers, and I always worry

See: pages of 'omg what if Aman is actually Village and I just let my bro get murdered' to Elan last Day  

[Alvron he/him]

*cackles manically*
Tragedy means Goat Song
Yawning makes your brain cold
Hippopotomonstrosesquippedaliophobia is the fear of long words
The Black Sapote fruit tastes like chocolate and custard

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him]

7 minutes ago, Alvron said:

*cackles manically*
Tragedy means Goat Song
Yawning makes your brain cold
Hippopotomonstrosesquippedaliophobia is the fear of long words
The Black Sapote fruit tastes like chocolate and custard

Sigh

EDIT: writer, what ever you do, don’t set up a pm with me and alv 

Edited May 1, 2023 by TheAlpha929

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him]

well, that was obviously a conversation-stopper. Also @writer,  I'm not really in need of the pm w/kas 

if you want to get me a pm anyway that's fine too

[Ashbringer he/him]

Probably a bit dead because it seems unlikely the village goes after anyone besides Archer today. And I think Archer's the right shot for a few reasons. MR49 he went down in a similar way (as a V!Thug in a distro we knew had at least 2 Elim extra lives) and was more... idk, reacted differently.

Also MR49 was a wild ride. 

[DeTess she/her]

13 hours ago, Illwei said:

 

Detess theorized on a different scenario that would put at least one elim in Archer/Alv, but said it was only 5% likely? but wrath of shades was only at 5% so if Sart was killed by shades it was still a 5% chance. @DeTess?

That theory got debunked by Elandera clarifying the wrath has to kill to reset. The idea was that the elims killed sart, got wrathed but survived and had the attacker go insane. But basically all my scenarios pointed at those two as suspect.

Also, archeralvron. I trust Alvron has been properly chastised for his crimes now.

edit: running some analysis on the D1 votes and other stuff to see if I can figure out who the remainder would be in an Aman+Archer team.

Vote list courtesy of Alvron, purple annotations to mark Aman and Archer my own:

Spoiler

Alv secretly votes for Steel (reasons)
Mat votes for Sart (joke vote)
Alpha votes for Mat (for voting for Sart / joke)
TKN votes for Alpha (continuing the joke)
Kas votes for Archer (RP / poke)
Archer votes for Mat (minor elim!Mat tell) - (elim!Mat gets annoyed easily?)
TJ votes for Archer (gut based on Archer’s elim numbers post)
Aman votes for Alv (because Alv is too awesome / poke - welcome back vote)
Aman votes for Alpha/Aloha (unknown)
Kas votes for Alpha/Aloha (joke?)
TKN votes and unvotes Mat (unknown)
Archer votes for TKN (for unvoting Alpha)
Sart votes for DeTess (poke - welcome back vote) - (DeTess will always be Rand to me)
Araris votes for Archer (agrees with TJ’s reasoning)
DeTess votes for Mat (feels Mat is being defensive)
Archer revotes Mat (doubles down on elim!Mat tell)
Kas votes Steel (unknown / joke)
Kas votes Alpha (not feeling Steel vote?) - (Suggests to vote DeTess due to past game read)
Mat votes DeTess (Feels DeTess is acting the same way they did in another game when Elim)
Alpha votes Steel (best guess)
Aman loves the tie between Mat/Alpha/Archer and DeTess (No elims in group?) - (Claims joke a couple posts later)
Kas votes for Aman (Sick!Kas is sick - brain fried)
Aman votes for himself (FOR THE TIE!)
Aman votes for Mat (unknown / self pres?)
Archer votes TKN (suspicious TKN only seems to be talking about/to Mat)
Mat votes Archer (self pres) - (willing to vote DeTess or Ash)
Archer unvotes TKN (misread posts / read)
Ash votes DeTess (likes the arguments against them)
Fae votes for themself (New player nerves?)
Alpha votes DeTess (wants vote too mean something)
Devotary votes Mat (For a 3 way tie / make Mat choose self pres vote?)
Archer votes DeTess

Kas secretly votes for Mat at some stage during cycle.

Final Vote Tally: (As per Write-up)
DeTess (4) - Archer, Sart, TheAlpha929, Ashbringer
Matrim's Dice (4) - Amanuensis, DeTess, Devotary of Spontaneity
Archer (3) - Matrim's Dice, Araris Valerian, |TJ|
The Last Fae (1) - The Last Fae
Steeldancer (1) - 
Amanuensis (0) - Kasimir

So, I'm feeling fairly confident that Mat, Araris and TJ can't be part of a team with Aman and Archer. There's no good reason for Archer to be put up for the lynch in that situation, even if Archer was planning on hammering their way out of it. If Archer does survive todays exe that might change a little, but not much.

Based on what happened Cycle 2, Devotary can't be on a team with Aman, and based on what happened this cycle TKN can't be on a team with archer.

That leaves Kasimir, Illwei, the last fae, alpha, ash, JNV, Steel and Alvron. I'm just going to hard-read kas as village, because if he isn't we're all going to die anyway he has been making good village contributions and has apparently been almost killed twice now by the elims. The remainder can't really be removed from the possible team and would need to get looked at in detail individually. Based on my earlier readthroughs I'd say Ash is more likely to be on the team and Illwei is less likely. The rest is in-between in no particular order.

Edited May 2, 2023 by DeTess

[Kasimir he/him]

5 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Probably a bit dead because it seems unlikely the village goes after anyone besides Archer today. And I think Archer's the right shot for a few reasons. MR49 he went down in a similar way (as a V!Thug in a distro we knew had at least 2 Elim extra lives) and was more... idk, reacted differently.

Also MR49 was a wild ride. 

I'll take a look if I have the time/energy, anyway. I've consistently been asking myself what it would take for a V!Archer world here but it just doesn't really make sense. E!TKN lying is the sort of thing you do to close out a game, not open it. And Archer was probably going to be dead one way or another. You could suggest I suppose he was trying to buy some Village credit, but eh.

4 hours ago, DeTess said:

So, I'm feeling fairly confident that Mat, Araris and TJ can't be part of a team with Aman and Archer. There's no good reason for Archer to be put up for the lynch in that situation, even if Archer was planning on hammering their way out of it. If Archer does survive todays exe that might change a little, but not much.

Disagree. We've had numerous past games with at least one Elim being up for the lynch on D1 and one of the votes on them being their teammate. I don't think that both Araris and TJ are Evil, but I think it's possible one of them could be. Araris and TJ were just scarce enough that it's also possible they didn't really have the time to switch off - which would explain both Aman voting on the Mat CW, and Archer's own subsequent tiebreaker. (I think it does draw attention to the fact that Ash and Alpha both made votes on you near end D1 as well - possible one of them made a saving vote.)

There's a few reasons I think this specifically doesn't clear Araris/looks worse for Araris:

-The Glowpaste bait (I agree I mentioned in thread it's not conclusive, but I have to acknowledge an Elim team that would've taken a shot in me/Devo after having lost an Elim and having failed to make a successful kill is one that has a pretty high risk appetite, believes they have info they have to act on, or both.) I'd also note that if Araris did think I had it, I am aware E!Araris ruthlessly targets scans. So I'd've been a priority target then to stop the Glowpaste from leaving my inventory (I claimed to be passing it to a trusted player and implied I would be unprotected.)

-Why Archer took no action. TKN claimed this. As you pointed out, there's pretty much no reason to not have Archer put in the kill, since he's already being protected by the Shade Expert. This suggests to me that we should suspect they still have Silver Dust, which implicates Araris directly or indirectly - in the direct world, it's Araris who is the knife, in the indirect world, Araris is the Shade Expert, and claimed Silver Dust in place of a second teammate on the D2 Aman train.

(h/t @Devotary of Spontaneity for this line of reasoning)

Quote

Amanuensis (7) - The Known Novel, Matrim's Dice, Araris Valerian, |TJ|, DeTess, JNV, Devotary of Spontaneity 

We can un-green TJ - it's just that if we do, we accept two Elims stacked onto a teammate D1, which is...how the opening of the recent/Jan game AG9 played out as well, IIRC, and Araris was one of the Elims who did that in that game as well.

The alternative is we suppose the Elims were willing to risk Wrath without Silver Dust or the Shade Expert's protection, or that the Elims have a second Silver Dust, which makes less sense since they also have a Shade Expert anyway.

-Distro reasons. Don't want to say too much about it immediately.

Anyway I'll say a bit about the other greens: Devo is obvious. DeTess IMO looks very good as the CW to Archer. Can say something similar for Mat as well as Aman's willingness to vote on Mat. (TJ and Araris's votes landed early IMO and never really moved.) TKN looks good from today's claim, though I could see some ersatz world where TKN claims for Village credit but I don't feel it makes that much sense. Just wanted to say it anyway.

Agree with the assessment that the effective pool is: <Ash, Aloha, Fae, Illwei, Steel, Alv.>

Edited to add: Should note that I say this but also just flat-out believe that Araris is likely Evil at this stage, but am not sure.

I think there's an <Ash/Aloha> choice actually because:

D1:

Quote

DeTess (4) - Archer, Sart, TheAlpha929, Ashbringer
Matrim's Dice (4) - Amanuensis, DeTess, Devotary of Spontaneity, Kasimir
Archer (3) - Matrim's Dice, Araris Valerian, |TJ|
The Last Fae (1) - The Last Fae
Steeldancer (1) - Alvron
Amanuensis (0)
No Vote () - Steel, TKN, JNV, Illrao

I think it's worth keeping in mind Aloha and Ash were the two late voteswappers onto the DeTess train. I don't think they are both Evil (though they both could very well be.) Then Archer subsequently CWs onto DeTess.

Agreed that at most one of <Araris, TJ> is Evil. View is that it's Araris.

D2:

Quote

Amanuensis (7) - The Known Novel, Matrim's Dice, Araris Valerian, |TJ|, DeTess, JNV, Devotary of Spontaneity 
Ashbringer (2) - Illwei, TheAlpha 929
Araris (1) - Archer
Matrim's Dice (1) - Sart
Alvron (1) - Ashbringer
Devotary of Spontaneity (1) - Alvron
No Vote () - Steel, Fae

I point out that if I ungreen TJ, this is a high Village train. If we add the constraint that one of Araris and TJ is Evil, then 2/7 of this train is Evil, at most, if not 1/7. Explained now by the E!Shade Expert whom sorry not sorry I still think is OP no I am absolutely not salty that the E!Shade Expert is more useful than I am nope not at all

Steel is probably a flip we're going to get if he doesn't sign back on as I don't recall him posting in the Night and I believe this game has a two Turns activity filter @Elandera

But I also just think he's Village so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Edited May 2, 2023 by Kasimir

[Archer he/him]

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I'll take a look if I have the time/energy, anyway. I've consistently been asking myself what it would take for a V!Archer world here but it just doesn't really make sense. E!TKN lying is the sort of thing you do to close out a game, not open it. And Archer was probably going to be dead one way or another. You could suggest I suppose he was trying to buy some Village credit, but eh.

Steel is probably a flip we're going to get if he doesn't sign back on as I don't recall him posting in the Night and I believe this game has a two Turns activity filter @Elandera

 

Counterpoint: he can probably get away with the lie if he's clever. There's something to be said for thread fatigue. By the time I'm dead in four IRL days, maybe people would have forgotten about it. Or the people who might be a problem can be shot. TKN cannot be trusted. 

What do you think of all this, @Steeldancer? 

[Alvron he/him]

15 hours ago, DeTess said:

I trust Alvron has been properly chastised for his crimes now.

NEVER!!

11 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Agreed that at most one of <Araris, TJ> is Evil. View is that it's Araris.

I've known Araris was evil since Devotary was proven Village.  

[Ashbringer he/him]

7 hours ago, Archer said:

Counterpoint: he can probably get away with the lie if he's clever. There's something to be said for thread fatigue. By the time I'm dead in four IRL days, maybe people would have forgotten about it. Or the people who might be a problem can be shot. TKN cannot be trusted. 

There's something you (and perhaps we) keep missing.

Archer says he's a Shade Expert who used their action to self-protect. TKN says he used Glow Paste and saw Archer not using any action at all. These two are fundamentally opposing; there is no claim of interference. One is truth, one is lies.

But if TKN is telling the truth, and Archer lies, then E!Archer is most likely not a Shade Expert, no? And thus most likely does not have Silver Bones. Perhaps he could, but that would be four players with Silver Bones and two of which are Elim (unless E!Mat or E!Kas protected E!Archer).

But if Archer is telling the truth, then he is a Shade Expert and will survive this day.

So we wouldn't need to spend two cycles. We could just spend one, and save the next for further thought. If Archer survives, then TKN's story becomes a lot more questionable, as there's evidence for Archer being the one who protected himself. 

But Archer isn't seeing that. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

It would still be very strange for Archer to self-protect even if he does survive, but chances are he'll die. Nobody's going to forget about TKN either.

[---]

Gotta be honest that I'm not a fan of the lack of resistance but that means if Archer is an Elim then his teammates are supporting and think he's dead, implying a weaker team. 

 

[Mat he/him]

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Gotta be honest that I'm not a fan of the lack of resistance but that means if Archer is an Elim then his teammates are supporting and think he's dead, implying a weaker team. 

 

In what world can any elim team overcome a 7 vote train?

[---]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

In what world can any elim team overcome a 7 vote train?

In what world do you see all of those voters being village

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him]

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

In what world do you see all of those voters being village

*raises hand*

[Mat he/him]

5 minutes ago, Illwei said:

In what world do you see all of those voters being village

Probably none, but I also don’t see one where only three of them are.

[Elandera she/her]

Turn is over. (PS, my fever has decided to make a comeback, so the rollover may be a little slow as I double check everything)

[Elandera she/her]

He grows louder with every drop of blood.

The call grows more urgent. I must finish this. I must find him.

He is waking.

---

Archer has been executed! He was a Cultist!

Vote Count:

Archer (10) - The Known Novel, Matrim's Dice, Araris Valerian, Kasimir, The Last Fae, TheAlpha929, Ashbringer, |TJ|, DeTess, Devotary of Spontaneity

Wrath of Shades Counter: 5%

This turn will end Wednesday, May 3 at 8:30 p.m. PDT / Thursday, May 4 at 1:30 p.m. AEST.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @The Known Novel - Crazy Hary
2. Archer - Cultist 
3. @Matrim's Dice - Enatnom
4. @Araris Valerian - Read My Role
5. Telrao / @Illwei - Ealmin
6. @Kasimir - Mordekai
7. @The Last Fæ
8. Amanuensis - Cultist with Iron Will
9. Sart - Homesteader Writer
10. @TheAlpha929 - Roosevelt
11. @Ashbringer - AraRaash
12. @|TJ|
13. @DeTess
14. @JNV - Jen
15. @Steeldancer - Lord Momo of the Momo Dynasty
16. @Alvron - Navor
17. @Devotary of Spontaneity - Surnia

Rule Clarifications:

Spoiler

1. Wrath of Shades can only kill the person who sent in the action that triggered it. If a Cultist and a Crossbow user both kill in the same night, they are both rolled at the same percentage and could both be killed.
2. If a Cultist and Crossbow user are the only ones alive at a night turn, both take action to kill the other, and no other actions are involved (such as the Pallid Mask), the game will end on a tie.
3. Pallid Mask and Elder Sign Pendant are both passive items.
4. You cannot use Voice in the Crowd to change a vote to a no vote.
5. Pallid masks do not stop such actions as opening PMs or passing items as they are not "actions taken against" a player, as in not aggressive actions.
6. Any form of protection or roleblock that stops an attack, no matter where in the OoA, will cause Broken Survivors unless specifically stated otherwise. 
7. You will always be informed if you lose an ability, role, or item. 
8. Iron Will prevents Broken Survivors as it is not their own action that caused it. I believe in this ruleset, the only form of insanity it does not protect against is using the spell book. Previous iterations had more actions with insanity consequences.
9. The chance of a Shade attack is never zero.
10. Pallid Masks do not stop from being voted on via Voice in the Crowd.
11. Those who kill another player have a 5% chance of their precautions failing, thus they will be attacked by the shades and killed. This does not include the execution. Every time a player kills another player the chances of enraging the Shades increases by 5%. Once someone dies to the Shades, the percentage resets.

@Steeldancer, this is your official inactivity warning. If you do not post this turn, you will either be removed or replaced.

Edited May 3, 2023 by Elandera

[Alvron he/him]

Ooh, we have a secret voter who isn't me.  Yay.  Mystery.

[Elandera she/her]

Just now, Alvron said:

Ooh, we have a secret voter who isn't me.  Yay.  Mystery.

We do?

[Ashbringer he/him]

The A Team certainly seems to be holding. Though that may not bode well for us, Alvron. (And Araris. (And maybe Alpha/Aloha.) )

10 Votes, 9 Names?

[Mat he/him]

3 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Archer (10) - The Known Novel, Matrim's Dice, Araris Valerian, Kasimir, TheAlpha929, Ashbringer, |TJ|, DeTess, Devotary of Spontaneity

9 names, 10 votes.

[Elandera she/her]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

9 names, 10 votes.

Ah, I skipped over a name. The count should now be correct. It's 10/10.