Kasimir he/him Posted May 5, 2023 Posted May 5, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, |TJ| said: If Ash is village, and you believe Alpha is village, then there was no attempt made to protect Archer in D1? I find that highly unlikely... I think it's possible that Village intervention eclipsed the need to protect Archer (this assumes they were beaten to the punch and preferred not to overtly act if they didn't have to) but between the two, would probably lean E!Alpha at this point. Keep in mind that the Mat train was already a CW to Archer, which Aman had stacked onto. So it's not as though there was no attempt to protect Archer: there was and it came right out the gate from Aman, who voted Mat after Rollovet. To refresh your memory, this gave us the votecount: Quote Mat (3): DeTess, Archer, Aman Archer (2): TJ, Araris DeTess (2): Sart, Mat Steel (1): Aloha Aman (1): Kas Ironically, Archer is the one who then pulls off the Mat train to vote TKN, which I feel is a train dilution move that backfired and he realised that wasn't likely to create a CW. Quote Mat (2): DeTess, Aman Archer (3): TJ, Araris, Mat DeTess (2): Sart, Ash Steel (1): Aloha Aman (1): Kas Only a few players make a vote move past this point: Devo (IMO, not willing to doubt Devo at this stage), Archer, Ash (onto DeTess), and Aloha (onto DeTess.) I've argued Alpha's move is probably the more dubious of the two because Ash could've gone Mat over DeTess but didn't. Alpha officially ties it by going on DeTess and it's worth noting that as DeTess wasn't going to be on, it was less likely to attract brawling than Mat as a CW ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I'm also the one who disagrees with Mat enough to believe that an inexperienced Elim like Alpha might very well think in terms of buying Village favour rather than in concrete terms of "what am I going to do after that." I don't fully believe Aman's posts point to E!Alpha, this is true, but I also think trying to read E!Aman is an exercise in dicing with disaster anyway so if push came to shove, I'd probably go E!Alpha over E!Ash. The thing with E!Alpha though is that IMO - well, you know. Again, I repeat: if you know you are Village, then Alv didn't make a kill. If Alv didn't make a kill, and it's not you, the only other world is that we're mistaken about Mat. If not, then the kill must have come from within the pool of four: <Illwei, JNV, Ash, Fae.> I really don't want to underscore the mech point less because I think the fact that we have good mech reason to believe it's one of those four is really important. Better for you than for basically anyone else, since everyone else has to note the E!TJ/E!Alv and E!Mat escape hatches. I don't feel like shooting outside the mech pool until we find the Elim that has to be in there because most mech-external shots either feel like a shot in the frickin' dark or require me to revise one or two layers of read-assumptions, and I'd rather not get completely excavatory until at least one more Elim is dead. Edited to add: @|TJ| Here's your counterpoint. Suppose the other two Elims were essentially low activity or barely present? The issue with hypothesising Fae IMO is we have to suggest E!Fae believed the situation was so under control that she could afford to self-vote rather than pad a vote on an alternative train to give Archer more breathing room. Edited to add 2: I guess what I'm trying to say is that it feels either way you are committed to explaining away some inadequacy. Either that complacent self-vote from Fae (lack of a saving vote cast!), or which of <Ash/Alpha> cast a saving vote (if at all) or why no wolf theatre despite a post that - ex hypothesi - would fundamentally have to be wolf theatre and so on. I don't think there's a smoking gun in this case but that's the point. Whatever the lynch finds will inevitably prove that there's some piece of evidence that's being misread. This isn't to say all incongruencies are the same, but it's that I think at the core of it, we are fundamentally committed to explaining away some seemingly-irrational things, and each time I try to explain Elim behaviour, I'm always stuck there. Edited May 5, 2023 by Kasimir
The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him Posted May 5, 2023 Posted May 5, 2023 Hey @DeTess how does it feel to be insane
Illwei Posted May 6, 2023 Posted May 6, 2023 Vague rambling thoughts made while at work from mobile based on d1 things Tkn vauge v based on reactions to Aman-not very but minorly defensive towards aman's comment on them, not more bc tkn wasn't in danger when Aman mentioned it. Archer vote on tkn not clearing either because the other supporter was aman. Stronger v read for his stances, how absolute they seem. "I'm not voting mat" is something I wouldn't see e!TKN saying like that at that state of the game. Tj strong v based on push on Archer d1 and confusion over mech earlier I wish I would have known how Archer would have reacted after Mat flipped- though I suppose we wouldn't know if he would or not. Archer push is going for him at the moment but the fact that he still could be the elim SE is countering that. Mat doesn't refute that it's an elim tell of his instead defending himself by saying he's not annoyed. Can't be a caught elim since Archer was an elim as well so really I'm having a little bit of a hard time analyzing that and end up with a v lean on Mat disregarding the option of him being the elim se. Would Archer and Aman both choose to bus him though? Aman tries to diminish the suspicion on detess theorizing teammates with sart and mat, would he throw Mat in there if teamed? Mat pushes Archer to three which is the point for a real wagon and mat is more likely v Ash votes detess not fully Saving Archer. Doesn't want wagons to become archer/mat, why? I'm also wondering about the vote onto detess from Armchair instead of voting Mat, when he had flip flopped between Mat and tkn for most of the cycle. Kas, tj, tkn, detess, devo Alpha still seems kinda e to me but not in ways I can elaborate on successfully right now Still want to kill Ash because unless you guys kill the elims for me before Ash dies I will probably have a harder time working around him. Impossible to get a read on steel rn Fae is kinda wtv to me atm since they're not doing much and what they do say is...I mean it can definitely come from a villager but not so much that I'm going to try and defend them.
The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him Posted May 6, 2023 Posted May 6, 2023 Crap I am pressed for time, sorry. Just realized I forgor to vote, so Fae See y'all at rollover ig
Elandera she/her Posted May 6, 2023 Author Posted May 6, 2023 (edited) Our power, our control, our will overtakes. The one in R'lyeh will reign. He stirs. The Last Fae has been executed! They were a Homesteader and a Thief! Vote Count: The Last Fae (5) - Matrim's Dice, Kasimir, TheAlpha929, |TJ| Illwei (1) - Araris Valerian, The Last Fae Ashbringer (1) - Illwei Araris Valerian (2) - Wrath of Shades Counter: 5% This turn will end Saturday, May 6 at 8:30 p.m. PDT / Sunday, May 7 at 1:30 p.m. AEST. Player List: Spoiler @The Known Novel - Crazy Hary Archer - Cultist @Matrim's Dice - Enatnom @Araris Valerian - Read My Role Telrao / @Illwei - Ealmin @Kasimir - Mordekai The Last Fae - Homesteader Thief Amanuensis - Cultist with Iron Will Sart - Homesteader Writer @TheAlpha929 - Roosevelt @Ashbringer - AraRaash @|TJ| @DeTess @JNV - Jen @Steeldancer - Lord Momo of the Momo Dynasty @Alvron - Navor @Devotary of Spontaneity - Surnia Rule Clarifications: Spoiler Wrath of Shades can only kill the person who sent in the action that triggered it. If a Cultist and a Crossbow user both kill in the same night, they are both rolled at the same percentage and could both be killed. If a Cultist and Crossbow user are the only ones alive at a night turn, both take action to kill the other, and no other actions are involved (such as the Pallid Mask), the game will end on a tie. Pallid Mask and Elder Sign Pendant are both passive items. You cannot use Voice in the Crowd to change a vote to a no vote. Pallid masks do not stop such actions as opening PMs or passing items as they are not "actions taken against" a player, as in not aggressive actions. Any form of protection or roleblock that stops an attack, no matter where in the OoA, will cause Broken Survivors unless specifically stated otherwise. You will always be informed if you lose an ability, role, or item. Iron Will prevents Broken Survivors as it is not their own action that caused it. I believe in this ruleset, the only form of insanity it does not protect against is using the spell book. Previous iterations had more actions with insanity consequences. The chance of a Shade attack is never zero. Pallid Masks do not stop from being voted on via Voice in the Crowd. Those who kill another player have a 5% chance of their precautions failing, thus they will be attacked by the shades and killed. This does not include the execution. Every time a player kills another player the chances of enraging the Shades increases by 5%. Once someone dies to the Shades, the percentage resets. Edited May 6, 2023 by Elandera 4
The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him Posted May 6, 2023 Posted May 6, 2023 ah dangit, should have voted elsewhere
Mat he/him Posted May 6, 2023 Posted May 6, 2023 9 minutes ago, TheAlpha929 said: ah dangit, should have voted elsewhere Not like it would have made a difference :P.
The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him Posted May 6, 2023 Posted May 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: Not like it would have made a difference :P. Quote but I wouldn't feel bad now also, unless I'm mistaken, that looks like two VitC
DeTess she/her Posted May 6, 2023 Posted May 6, 2023 @Alvronwere you the vote on araris or fae? @TheAlpha929, who else would you have voted?
Alvron Posted May 6, 2023 Posted May 6, 2023 25 minutes ago, DeTess said: @Alvronwere you the vote on araris or fae? Araris of course. Tbf, I did place that order before it was revealed he was roleblocked but likely still wouldn't have changed it.
Kasimir he/him Posted May 6, 2023 Posted May 6, 2023 34 minutes ago, Alvron said: Araris of course. Tbf, I did place that order before it was revealed he was roleblocked but likely still wouldn't have changed it. Are you trying to prove you could never use a Day spellbook? Hmm. Ok, this does increase my suspicion that it is actually a Writer team now.
The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted May 6, 2023 Posted May 6, 2023 I'll claim the Fae vote. Would of voted in thread but I figured it could make the elims more willing to try a different train.
Elandera she/her Posted May 6, 2023 Author Posted May 6, 2023 Correction: There has been a change to the vote count.
Kasimir he/him Posted May 6, 2023 Posted May 6, 2023 Second invisible vote on Araris? I'm going to take a nap and then look at this again.
DeTess she/her Posted May 6, 2023 Posted May 6, 2023 So absed ont eh claims so far the count would be something like this: The Last Fae (5) - Matrim's Dice, Kasimir, TheAlpha929, |TJ| , TKN Illwei (0) - Araris Valerian, The Last Fae Ashbringer (1) - Illwei Araris Valerian (2) - Alvron, ? Both Araris and Fae also used, VITC, but one vote went MIA, probably the one by Araris, as I suspect Fae voted for Araris. @Araris Valerianwho did you try to move your vote to?
The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him Posted May 6, 2023 Posted May 6, 2023 8 hours ago, DeTess said:@TheAlpha929, who else would you have voted? Probably Ash or Alv. Maybe Araris. So, looking at that, it seems like if you have an A username you instantly become more suspicious. So possibly myself
Araris Valerian he/him Posted May 6, 2023 Posted May 6, 2023 I was roleblocked, so I couldn’t have used Voice. Not sure what happened to my vote.
Kasimir he/him Posted May 6, 2023 Posted May 6, 2023 (edited) Thoughts: -Fae was a bit of a "most suspicious in the mech pool" shot. I'm still wary of the TJ and Mat escape hatches. -I don't know if I'll survive past this cycle as I have Exotic Lurching Decisions to be making I'll state here for good measure that I think that if there's a second futile shot in the mechpool, it's then worth relooking the Mat and TJ escape hatches. I think the valence for distancing is kind of wrong for Mat but I'm a bit disturbed by Mat's receding WiM, and wouldn't really take that sort of thing for granted. -I'm willing to revise Ash - in an <Ash/Alpha> pair-off, V!Ash still feels more likely, but honestly at this point I don't feel especially confident. I'd say depends as well on any information that we can get from Devo. -Side-thought to watch out for: Elims may exploit the no re-targeting rule to have a recently RBed member send in the kill as that player cannot be roleblocked again by Devo. @Devotary of Spontaneity, just be aware. -I am currently okay with Village reads on Devo, DeTess, and Steel. Steel is a special case as I feel fine with this meta read but also doubt he's been putting in the kill due to extreme inactivity. Properly, think of it like this: : Devo, DeTess, Steel -I would say that this category is / null+: TJ, Mat Honestly really tempted to revise TJ or Mat but am aware this isn't quite the time to do it. I'd say if there's further failure, consider looking back at them. Kind of don't believe I'll be alive to worry about it by then. I shall deliberately leave 'alive' vague as to whether I mean in this game or bloody COVID woes >> -/ Strictly null: Alv, Alpha, Araris -/ Null-: Ash, Illwei, JNV Theoretically I think Illwei should be higher but I've mostly left her here because of mechpool concerns, which should be especially important at EoD. I will say Ash's passivity especially in a game where mech analysis is possible is not necessarily encouraging, even with my view that Ash's post with Aman doesn't feel Evil. It's sort of at the stage where I guess I describe it as "I don't think killing Ash helps us win the game but I'm not really gonna stop people because eh." Nothing much to say for JNV, apart from the V!Alpha read. JNV's sort of disappeared from this game and theoretically that sort of disengagement is closer to V!JNV (which Stick and I had a whole Conversation about for MR63), but...Like seriously? How many times can this be true? 'Cause... Ok. Say I ignore the above. The above is sort of consistent so far. Let's look at a combination of stuff (e.g. mechpool) and what I feel. : Devo, DeTess, Steel, Illwei, JNV, Araris : Alv, Alpha, TJ, Mat, Ash There's probably a craptonne of mistakes in there somewhere but it's purely where I am in terms of vibes/feel. Prima facie even if there's every single Elim in Gizamon there's at least two people who don't belong there but CBA to figure out who. Edited to add: 5 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: I was roleblocked, so I couldn’t have used Voice. Not sure what happened to my vote. @Elandera? Is the vc right? Edited May 6, 2023 by Kasimir
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted May 6, 2023 Posted May 6, 2023 16 minutes ago, Kasimir said: -Side-thought to watch out for: Elims may exploit the no re-targeting rule to have a recently RBed member send in the kill as that player cannot be roleblocked again by Devo. @Devotary of Spontaneity, just be aware. Wait what? There's nothing like this in the rules doc. I can't target the same player twice in a row or I can only target any given player once or what?
Kasimir he/him Posted May 6, 2023 Posted May 6, 2023 (edited) 30 minutes ago, Illwei said: How do you find it to clear steel over Me? Or jnv? I've written an essay about Steel's V meta, as backed up by Fifth, which we both used to accurately read Steel in the recent AG, in C1 of the thread, which stands up to even TJ's arguments about it - TJ's counter-arguments are demonstrably wrong. I'll go back and check for it again if I have the time but it's there and this is a legit "go read it if you want to but I'm sticking with it right now." 1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: Wait what? There's nothing like this in the rules doc. I can't target the same player twice in a row or I can only target any given player once or what? @Elandera was mentioning the can't re-target twice in a row applies to everyone when I was clarifying some of the mechanics with her. I'll recheck my GM PM but I think this is worth reclarifying again if so. pupillary reflex Edited to add: Oh great we can't remove this ok please ignore this I was relooking up the Glasgow Coma Scale for reasons and I have this bloody thing c/ped and not the Steel stuff >> Anyway. My post on Steel: TJ's challenge: My response to his counterarguments: Nothing about Steel's subsequent posts deviate from this pattern of behaviour: in fact, they entrench it. Barely remembered to stay alive, isn't even here, nearly got filter-killed until Elan extended mercy after pleading from Walin. This ain't filter-dodging. This is just extremely disengaged dgaf. I'm willing to accept a 10% chance he recognises he behaves like this when Village and is deliberately milking this to avoid scrutiny, but this is where my point about filter-dodging normally cutting it way less close shows up, shaving the rest down to 10%. There's one game where he's Village and doesn't behave like this and that's LG86 but again, patterns of behaviour. Edited May 6, 2023 by Kasimir
Mat he/him Posted May 6, 2023 Posted May 6, 2023 1 hour ago, Kasimir said: Mat's receding WiM Can you translate this acronym?
Kasimir he/him Posted May 6, 2023 Posted May 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: Can you translate this acronym? Ask Aman :eyes:
Alvron Posted May 6, 2023 Posted May 6, 2023 3 hours ago, Kasimir said: Ask Aman :eyes: I'll summon the Necromancer. Can anyone spare some change for the call? And maybe cover the fee? Edit: Ooh, closer. Almost prefect. Glowpaste, Day spellbook, PM opening. I can't have done any of those. While I can't account for my Night actions, at very least my Day actions are clear.
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