Long Game 94: The Call of the Forest of Hell

[Illwei]

Tjs misunderstanding of the thief action and the discussion bits around that are a questionable reason due me to village read TJ but I'm going with it

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I think I'm looking at a POE of Illwei, Ash, Fae, and JNV, at least for the elim that sent in the kill last night. Mat and DeTess would be the next two to add in.

• Kas and Devo are reasonably clear from mech
• Alv (and I) couldn't have killed last night
• TJ voted Archer relatively early on both D1 and D3
• TKN helped to condemn Archer (although notably, if the elims had given up on Archer this would be an excellent bus opportunity)
• Steel was inactive
• Alpha passed a mask to Devo

I'm not sure about DeTess, on D3 she specifically voted Alv over Archer but made the case that one was almost certainly elim. Also Alvron wasn't a bad vote by any stretch. And like Kas points out, she's  the person Archer went for D1. Altogether leaning village but reluctantly.

Mat similarly looks good from the D1 voting, but his Silver Bones mean that he could be the e!SE. And I'm not sure how much this counts for, but he voted for both Archer and Aman, which elims would probably want to do for better odds of reclaiming items. So less village than DeTess, but don't really want to vote him today.

My gut is telling me to vote Illwei right now but I'm fine with any of the 4 above. I think Ash and Illwei have enough content to get a better read on them so I'll work on that.

[Tea Leaf]

Okay, I've had some nerves about this vote, but I think Illwei. 

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Fae: I might actually vote here before Ash somehow but it's just a few things, like the thief claim + reclaiming over and over to get the point in yet not having any evidence towards the claim whatsoever (plus even if true works with e!Aman fake claiming thief as he was dying) and then there have also been moments where their votes felt very intentionally placed before almost immediately being retracted with no explanation.

I feel over-credited for guessing people randomly with minimal guesswork based upon other votes and general view...

But in my defense it is a 33% chance that has yet to trigger over the two times (don't know if I should day because that is when I activate it or night which is when I think I receive it.) Why I have tried only two times including today: I didn't know about taking the action until later... I know this isn't a life saving action to say this, but I will probably give to DeTess or Mat when I get something.

[Alvron]

15 hours ago, |TJ| said:

Alv - Testing how VitC appears for future nefarious use? - Autumn Leaves Orange

Nope.  Not the reason.  Care to guess again?

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I don't like Alv just VitCing and then saying it was for some reason yet there being no outside benefit for the mechanic anywhere in the rules. It feels like an excuse to not participate in the exe.

Luck!Bro.  I need no excuse to not participate in the exe.  I have a very long habit of not voting. If I don't want to vote, I don't vote. Those that know me wouldn't find it suspicious at all.  The fact that I am voting is what's different and I'm a little disappointed that I haven't really caught much flax for that.

[Mat he/him]

22 minutes ago, The Last Fæ said:

Okay, I've had some nerves about this vote, but I think Illwei. 

How much of this vote is because Araris voted Illwei in the post immediately above yours?

[Tea Leaf]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

How much of this vote is because Araris voted Illwei in the post immediately above yours?

45%

[Ashbringer he/him]

38 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Alv (and I) couldn't have killed last night

Spoiler

Why not you?

TBH I’d rather get exed here so the village can get over talking about me all the time than a repeat of maybe-sort-of-suspecting me until the Elims have thread control.

 

[Tea Leaf]

16 hours ago, |TJ| said:

Fae - Suspicious self-vote, ending the sentence with "elims show yourselves" shows awareness that we need to catch elims which contradicts with the self-vote proving that the self-vote could be fake - Blood Red

I find the red of blood too insighting of the shades. There are better people to suspect, but I mean it is cool that you took the time to calculate my status, but before we remove me we should try trimming one of the other two elims. 

Did I just admit to being to an Elim? Well I did want the double meaning but I can't really say that I am an Elim.

Edited May 4, 2023 by The Last Fæ

[Illwei]

So what do we think of fae?

[Tea Leaf]

6 minutes ago, Illwei said:

So what do we think of fae?

Horrible? 

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him]

Idek

[Mat he/him]

Would vote tbh

[Tea Leaf]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

Would vote tbh

Ditto. But not on me.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

6 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Araris + Alv: Lumping them together because they aren't e/e unless it was a 5p team start, right? Due to the spellbook + RB combo. Or one of them had a mask I guess. But anyway, these two sorta feel like JNV to me. Like options that aren't especially pulling either way. I know Araris voted Archer early on but I don't remember how sticky that vote was.

TJ and I would know if they had a mask since we'd be told our actions failed. Araris's vote for Archer was permanent and would have left it as a tie had Archer not voted last minute or Kas VitC'd Mat.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

  Hide contents

Why not you?

TBH I’d rather get exed here so the village can get over talking about me all the time than a repeat of maybe-sort-of-suspecting me until the Elims have thread control.

 

Devotary blocked me during the night.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Ah. Right.

[Kasimir he/him]

3 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

  Reveal hidden contents

Why not you?

TBH I’d rather get exed here so the village can get over talking about me all the time than a repeat of maybe-sort-of-suspecting me until the Elims have thread control.

 

It's little posts like this that don't make sense to me as much as I feel Fae is the more promising exe today. 

Until the Elims have the frick what.

If a team that lost both Aman and Archer can have thread control with zero Village deaths apart from Sart, I don't know what the frick you are remotely fricking hypothesising as a team or a gamestate. If that team can get thread control without us remotely screwing the Pooh to a state the Pooh was not meant to be screwed, I don't know what to say. There's a significant chunk in there that just reads like scaremongering.

3 hours ago, Alvron said:

Nope.  Not the reason.  Care to guess again?

Luck!Bro.  I need no excuse to not participate in the exe.  I have a very long habit of not voting. If I don't want to vote, I don't vote. Those that know me wouldn't find it suspicious at all.  The fact that I am voting is what's different and I'm a little disappointed that I haven't really caught much flax for that.

And?

For me it's just that I feel...less strongly than Mat, I could see...Suppose the Elim team lost most thread confidence with Archer and Aman. I could see Alpha placating with a Mask to buy time and not realising it deepens the hole. But that's still besides the point because I think the real problem is that someone killed last Night and it can't be Alpha.

We could theoretically argue it's Mat but I still don't really feel the voting is quite right for that. There's a side world where it's Alv and TJ but they absolutely have to be a package deal and I don't have to read Alv if I can just read TJ. Again back to Illwei, JNV, Ash, Fae.

I have weak positive reasons to V read pretty much everyone except Fae. With Fae, it's derpclear reasons which not everyone is on board with, to the point I also DK what I feel when I reread her posts. But really it's also this cycle. The point isn't about being a Thief which is a perfectly believable claim. The point is about being Village and Fae keeps conveniently eliding the two.

[Ashbringer he/him]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

It's little posts like this that don't make sense to me as much as I feel Fae is the more promising exe today. 

Until the Elims have the frick what.

If a team that lost both Aman and Archer can have thread control with zero Village deaths apart from Sart, I don't know what the frick you are remotely fricking hypothesising as a team or a gamestate. If that team can get thread control without us remotely screwing the Pooh to a state the Pooh was not meant to be screwed, I don't know what to say. There's a significant chunk in there that just reads like scaremongering.

Because it really depends where I am in my ability to play.

Sometimes living on the edge of suspicion is great for me. It keeps the exe enough of a threat for me to stay engaged, and enough of a threat that the Elim kill stays off my back. It keeps me alive, unless there's a Coinshot who's feeling lucky. And that gives me time to try and build a case for why something is happening the way it is, or to set up to figure out a plan once the Elims chew through the people who can be trusted, or to do things in the background with whatever roles I end up having.

But if I can't build a case because I don't have the time or the brainpower or the not-having-a-headache, or if the Elims aren't chewing through trusts, or I don't have background things I can do, then I'm just here. Not trusted, not killed, just surviving. And you're right, it's not like last game, that was just the first. This game is all three. Great for the Village, not so good for me. 

So why don't you want to kill me?

It's not like we don't have the time. Two Elims are down compared to one Villager, exelo is pretty far away unless someone's saving a lot of crossbows to use on people who aren't me. And otherwise I'm just going to be there, nothing to trust, taking up a third of the conversations each cycle.

Unless I do have time? Unless I can find something in D1 that looks more promising? Unless you think that maybe the Elims tried to kill DeTess to prove her village-ness, thus implicating me more in saving Archer? Unless you agree that something doesn't make sense?

Because even I'm having trouble of thinking of something else.

 

... sorry that's a bit of a rant. Today was weird and I just don't have as much energy for this as I thought I would.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

Because it really depends where I am in my ability to play.

Sometimes living on the edge of suspicion is great for me. It keeps the exe enough of a threat for me to stay engaged, and enough of a threat that the Elim kill stays off my back. It keeps me alive, unless there's a Coinshot who's feeling lucky. And that gives me time to try and build a case for why something is happening the way it is, or to set up to figure out a plan once the Elims chew through the people who can be trusted, or to do things in the background with whatever roles I end up having.

But if I can't build a case because I don't have the time or the brainpower or the not-having-a-headache, or if the Elims aren't chewing through trusts, or I don't have background things I can do, then I'm just here. Not trusted, not killed, just surviving. And you're right, it's not like last game, that was just the first. This game is all three. Great for the Village, not so good for me. 

So why don't you want to kill me?

It's not like we don't have the time. Two Elims are down compared to one Villager, exelo is pretty far away unless someone's saving a lot of crossbows to use on people who aren't me. And otherwise I'm just going to be there, nothing to trust, taking up a third of the conversations each cycle.

Unless I do have time? Unless I can find something in D1 that looks more promising? Unless you think that maybe the Elims tried to kill DeTess to prove her village-ness, thus implicating me more in saving Archer? Unless you agree that something doesn't make sense?

Because even I'm having trouble of thinking of something else.

 

... sorry that's a bit of a rant. Today was weird and I just don't have as much energy for this as I thought I would.

Because my wincon is for killing Elims? I don't get what's so hard about this. You're giving me just enough QF63 Ash vibes I'd rather go for basically anyone else in PoE I have zero reason to think is Village.

It doesn't mean I can't be mistaken but it sure means I'm not interested in maximising bad decisions before going for lynches I am more convinced might actually fulfil my wincon.

Edited to add:

Quote

Ash (1): Illwei
Illwei (2): Araris, Fae
Fae (1): Kas
Alvron (1): Mat

 

Edited May 5, 2023 by Kasimir

[Mat he/him]

Alv Fae

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

5 hours ago, Illwei said:

So what do we think of fae?

Slightly more suspicious than you for the opposite reasons. Don't know if I'll vote them though.

[Kasimir he/him]

18 minutes ago, The Known Novel said:

Slightly more suspicious than you for the opposite reasons. Don't know if I'll vote them though.

Opposite reasons?

[DeTess she/her]

Getting back to the last two, starting with Illwei:

Illwei  seems to be trying to actively solve the game, which is always a good look. The mech portions seem to confuse them from time to time, but that also makes them look a bit ore village imho as as an elim they'd have a far better insight into what is actually going on making it easier to parse the mech. There are some things that look a bit off to me, such as them throwing some shade on the archer train, but overall read still leans village.

So, looking at Ash's more recent post, I'm starting to feel a bit better about them. There is still some shady stuff, but also attempts to solve the game. I also like them outright stating that they feel it's a bad idea to outright trust Kas. I think that's an argument coming form a paranoid villager mindset, while an elim would want to avoid attracting that kind of attention and would just go with the majority while attempting to off Kas on the side. I don't really like how fatalistic they are looking at things in their last couple of posts, but that stuff isn't really alignment indicative.

Can't vote because I am insane, but I'd say my order from least to most suspicious has now changed to Illwei -> JNV = Ash -> Fae, so if I could vote, I'd be voting Fae.

Edited May 5, 2023 by DeTess

[Kasimir he/him]

23 minutes ago, DeTess said:

So, looking at Ash's more recent post, I'm starting to feel a bit better about them. There is still some shady stuff, but also attempts to solve the game. I also like them outright stating that they feel it's a bad idea to outright trust Kas. I think that's an argument coming form a paranoid villager mindset, while an elim would want to avoid attracting that kind of attention and would just go with the majority while attempting to off Kas on the side. I don't really like how fatalistic they are looking at things in their last couple of posts, but that stuff isn't really alignment indicative.

This.

Also, for me, the other good point for Ash is the half-hearted highlight of Aman's potential E!slip when he was about to get lynched. IMO if it's wolf theatre, then E!Ash would be wanting to milk more from it and get those distancing points. Instead it's a half-hearted comment without much impact from Aman or Ash and the lynch goes on. 

Ash also later declines more Village credit for it:

Quote

Also for pointing Aman's slip... I think you do me too much credit. I noticed, and thought it could be a slip, but I'm also known myself to hedge statements that probably don't need hedging. I could see myself doing that by mistake, so it just added to a note of strange things. Between that and trying to write an essay (or putting off writing that essay) I didn't change much through rollover. Plus Alv basically said "I wouldn't do that" and that was it.

There's tonal + fatalistic weirdness in the later posts but it's enough for me to file this for now in 'Disagreements about how to Village' rather than wanting to go for an Ash train today. 

[|TJ| he/him]

If Ash is village, and you believe Alpha is village, then there was no attempt made to protect Archer in D1? I find that highly unlikely...

Leaning Alpha more than Ash at this point, but ugh, the counter to the point that elims would not give a Pallid Mask to a confirmed village White Fox is that it's important that they first volunteered to give it to Kas, but Kas requested it to be passed to Devo instead, and they cannot reject the request without seeming suspicious. I think plan could have been to give it to Kas hoping he'd then protect Devo and going for someone else entirely (like deTess). 

Edit: TLFae @Elandera

Edited May 5, 2023 by |TJ|