Long Game 94: The Call of the Forest of Hell

[Elandera]

44 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Just to get my understanding of the rules clear:

#2 implies that if I do not lose an ability, role, or item, e.g. as a regular, when I survive an attack due to external forces, I'm not told anything, correct?

Mat gets told because if he survives via Silver Bones, he loses SB so he's informed of the loss, not the survival.

(I'm highly confident this is the correct read since I was incredibly put out and flummoxed not to know why I went insane, or if I was attacked, but I'd like a direct clarification if my understanding is correct so we can stop going in circles about points that you've already previously clarified.)

Yes, this is correct.

[Amanuensis]

I thought I'd wake up less confused, not more >:(

[Mat]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

Why Ash? You wanted to kill them last Day too and I wasn't sure what the case was there

It's a disengagement/Dingo case, plus if the general leaning of v!DeTess/e!you is correct Ash would be a natural fit into that world. I'm interested in not repeating yesterday altogether so am starting here.

46 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I know my vote doesn't count but damnit let me exercise my civic duty >>

Could you explain the vote a bit more? I know you said a bit about engagement levels but as someone who has basically no concept of the differences in Devo's meta I'm wondering if you have any other way to articulate the read  

Edit: RIP Aman

Edited April 28, 2023 by Matrim's Dice

[Kasimir]

4 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I thought I'd wake up less confused, not more >:(

I know, I think the trauma of not knowing what happened drove me insane  

[Araris Valerian]

I think Kas’s analysis is sound; either the elims deliberately didn’t send a kill, or they got roleblocked. The other options require too many things to line up nicely.

Did we determine all the voting shenanigans last cycle? Because if not, I’d propose going after the non-voting D1 players as a combined CC and legitimate POE for who used Voice.

[Kasimir]

2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Did we determine all the voting shenanigans last cycle? Because if not, I’d propose going after the non-voting D1 players as a combined CC and legitimate POE for who used Voice.

Alv claimed the one on Steel, I claimed the one on Mat. Nothing left unaccounted for.

6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Could you explain the vote a bit more? I know you said a bit about engagement levels but as someone who has basically no concept of the differences in Devo's meta I'm wondering if you have any other way to articulate the read  

Preparing for rest now so I'll pull substantiation when I'm awake and less sick, but my reference games were MR61 (V!Devo), LG80 (E!Devo), QF64 (V!Devo), QF62 (V!Devo.) Long story short it's mode of engagement - V!Devo IMO engages more freely with the thread, mentions suspicions, demonstrates interest in solving. I feel like most of Devo's interactions so far have been mech-centric, which is something I see more from E!Devo. She just doesn't really kind of want to do her own thing and solve when Village?

I feel like most of her mention of suspicions came at prompting, rather than freely, and reactivity isn't a good look IMO when V!Devo is less reactive.

I will note TKN is also straddling the reactivity border and it's worth recalling that E!TKN only really volunteered info when pressed, then faded into the background again, cf. QF64. I want to go back through the past cycle to see how much came freely and how much came when he was prompted or under pressure. E!TKN IMO does the bare minimum and the moment the pressure is off, drops it.

Edited to add: Right sorry really should rest as mind is a bit muddled now - "She just doesn't really kind of want to do her own thing and solve when Village?" What I'm trying to convey here is that I see more interest in solving and free engagement but, importantly, engagement from V!Devo. I don't really feel that I'm seeing this here, and that brings to mind E!Devo instead.

And as much as I regret to say this: I'm watching Aman yet again because I am still feeling some degree of lack of engagement or reactivity and I'm not very sure how I feel about it. It does feel a bit like the issue with TKN: he put up enough to allay suspicions and then stopped. I agree my standards are a bit skewed because I'm a hyperposter and Aman and I both need to develop healthier relationships to SE so maybe pinch of salt. But I feel detachment for Aman is more likely to emerge from an Elim perspective because like me, he has a slight (well major in my case) preference for Village play.

Edited April 28, 2023 by Kasimir

[DeTess]

So, I'm feeling dumb now. I think I was entering a bit of a tunnel on Archer now as their vote looked really sketchy to me, but I completely missed them being part of the three-way tie, despite this having been mentioned several times

So yeah, that vote at least wasn't as sketchy as I thought it was, and with the rest of the situation there I think I'm going to back off from an Archer (or Mat) lynch until there's a bit more info floating around that could help resolve what happened D1.

I'm going to start going over all the players one by one to try to get some more solid reads. I'm pretty low in energy right now though, so I'm not sure I'll be able to get through the entire list before the end of the cycle.

Starting with Ashbringer, as they are getting some suspicion and I don't really have any sort of read on them right now.

They have a fair number of posts, but a lot of it is just aimless banter, though this seems to be improving a bit more recently. They provided some reads towards the end of D1, but didn't really provide much reasoning for why they felt certain ways about certain people. I think it's a little noteworthy that the vote they ended up settling on wasn't really supported by their own reasoning, but by just stating agreement with someone else's work.

Overall I don't have much of an opinion on them yet, but I think it's a little telling how few alignment indicative things they've said while clearly being engaged with the game to some degree at least. I haven't seen them play before so this might be normal to their playstyle, but I can't help but wonder if their posting style is a way of seeming engaged while hiding. Final read would be slight elim.

I've got time for one more, so moving on to the known novel.

... @The Known Novelcould you give some opinions on someone that is not Mat?

Seriously though, I think it's noteworthy how much TKN talked about Mat, but I'm not really seeing this being an elim trait? I think an elim wouldn't want to be so obviously focused on one person because it both looks odd and might invite retaliatory attention. I guess I'm leaning very slightly village because of this, but it's more gut than anything else, and I really hope to see TKN diversify their attention a little bit.

[Kasimir]

14 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I think Kas’s analysis is sound; either the elims deliberately didn’t send a kill, or they got roleblocked. The other options require too many things to line up nicely.

Oh yeah final thing before heading to bed:

I am not sure I agree that a protection scenario is farfetched in that I think the Elims would naturally select for a teammate with Silver Bones, or Silver Dust. And given Broken Survivors and the insanity penalty, I don't think it's too weird they'd also try to select for one with Iron Will. It does require a bit of juggling but given the selection incentive, I feel the real question is how plausible it is that the Elims started off with Shade protection and Iron Will? 

And yeah, I don't think that's too beyond the pale.

Edited to add: There's the Shade Expert world too which is not impossible...but feels a bit OP if I'm being honest.

Edited April 28, 2023 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis]

42 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

And as much as I regret to say this: I'm watching Aman yet again because I am still feeling some degree of lack of engagement or reactivity and I'm not very sure how I feel about it. It does feel a bit like the issue with TKN: he put up enough to allay suspicions and then stopped. I agree my standards are a bit skewed because I'm a hyperposter and Aman and I both need to develop healthier relationships to SE so maybe pinch of salt. But I feel detachment for Aman is more likely to emerge from an Elim perspective because like me, he has a slight (well major in my case) preference for Village play.

Fair probably worth saying I actively decided to take the night turn off due to the lack of a flip taking the wind out of my sails. And now it feels like it's D1 again

Also I still haven't grasped the rules tbh; all the percentages and complicated explanations for what could explain the lack of an NK are kinda melting my brain rn lol

Curse you Uncertainty >:(

Edited April 28, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Mat]

Can't say that I love Araris' return being an agreement with Kas mech thoughts and a suggestion to CC :P.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Probably the most straightforward world. I go insane because I'm incredibly unlucky, and the/a White Fox stops the kill.

Elandera said that roleblocks still result in broken survivors, so the only scenarios left are 1. you were attacked and either protected or the kill was roleblocked 2. Someone with silver bones was attacked and either lost their life and hasn't said so/was protected/kill was roleblocked and you went insane independently 3. No kill, you get horrored. Maybe this if the elims have no protections against shades but killing seems worthwhile if they do. Most likely that you got attacked and was most likely saved by a roleblock since nobody's claimed to have lost silver bones/pallid mask. Even a silver boned elim who was retaliated against by a shade expert could claim to have lost it and play it off as being attacked. I guess I can see where they wouldn't because that requires you to get horrored but it's not like that's implausible. And the odds of a shade expert deciding to protect you are probably higher than the odds of a white fox roleblocking the killer.

This is relatively high engagement for me. I've been having trouble caring about the results of recent games so am trying a little harder this one. Mech is always easier than looking at players.

48 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Did we determine all the voting shenanigans last cycle? Because if not, I’d propose going after the non-voting D1 players as a combined CC and legitimate POE for who used Voice.

Alvron and Kas claimed the two VitC. It seems that Alvron didn't care which of DeTess, Mat, or Archer died D1.

[|TJ|]

5 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Edited to add 5: Sorry, to clarify: TJ, I know you're short on time so this isn't an ask for analysis though that'd be great. This is a straight-up "can you please confirm if you were hit by a kill" question that doesn't require you to backread the entire thread.

Sorry, just been only glancing through things as I'm yet to catch up with EoD1. I haven't been informed of any sort of hit on me. 

Weekends should be more free and expect me to catch up before the end of the cycle. 

[Kasimir]

57 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Elandera said that roleblocks still result in broken survivors, so the only scenarios left are 1. you were attacked and either protected or the kill was roleblocked 2. Someone with silver bones was attacked and either lost their life and hasn't said so/was protected/kill was roleblocked and you went insane independently 3. No kill, you get horrored. Maybe this if the elims have no protections against shades but killing seems worthwhile if they do. Most likely that you got attacked and was most likely saved by a roleblock since nobody's claimed to have lost silver bones/pallid mask. Even a silver boned elim who was retaliated against by a shade expert could claim to have lost it and play it off as being attacked. I guess I can see where they wouldn't because that requires you to get horrored but it's not like that's implausible. And the odds of a shade expert deciding to protect you are probably higher than the odds of a white fox roleblocking the killer.

Fair and good catch. I feel like the Silver Bone case, they wouldn't claim. The Shade Expert involved would cc because they would know their protective ability was used up.

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Can't say that I love Araris' return being an agreement with Kas mech thoughts and a suggestion to CC :P.

Tbh part of me wondered because I've watched E!Araris do enough narrative shaping by now. But none applicable in this case.

Interesting if I really did get hit though. Classic noise/control kill. 

Edited to add: Reformatted this to confuse people less as I apparently cannot sleep for hacking my lungs out :/

44 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Sorry, just been only glancing through things as I'm yet to catch up with EoD1. I haven't been informed of any sort of hit on me. 

Weekends should be more free and expect me to catch up before the end of the cycle. 

- Sorry bad c/p am on mobile so don't want to redo this. Just no worries I get it, hence just asked to establish if you got hit.

What it says above. Understand life's busy and that's fair, hence asking to establish if you got hit.

Edited April 28, 2023 by Kasimir
Undoing mobile screw

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

24 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

The Shade Expert involved would cc because they would know their protective ability was used up.

There's still value in the shade expert keeping quiet since even without their protective abilities they can still survive an elim kill, so if that is what happened it's not worth it for them to claim in thread yet. Noted about an elim not claiming to have lost silver bones though. Do you think this is more likely than the roleblocked kill?

[Kasimir]

47 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

There's still value in the shade expert keeping quiet since even without their protective abilities they can still survive an elim kill, so if that is what happened it's not worth it for them to claim in thread yet. Noted about an elim not claiming to have lost silver bones though. Do you think this is more likely than the roleblocked kill?

Yes and no, honestly. Feels like a wash to me. I sort of feel it might be worth it even then (i.e. coming out to claim it before anything else), but only weakly so. But in the case of a fake Silver Bone attack claim, I think it's more compelling: you exchange your protect for a dead Elim, and you help the Village softclear a player as a result. There's no point in keeping an extra life if you don't do much with it, just to hope to kill soak? But I recognise this one isn't a slamdunk case unlike roleblock verse.

Some of it also boils down to how many Shade Experts you expect there to be in this game. I actually think that if there's an Evil Shade Expert, then Shade Expert abilities don't seem to do anything? So a lot of ??? there.

I have no idea. I will say there are players here I believe could successfully roleblock a kill, but at the same time, even if they did, I'm assuming we won't know until at least Rollovet, due to them trying to keep discussion alive. You probably remember a certain Tehlin, for one. I think the main reason I was willing to accept I might've gotten attacked is that I'm a notorious kill magnet and a convenient control kill, so I'm not especially surprised. I can't really judge the likelihood here. I won't disagree with your assessment that it's probably easier to pull off a Lurch than a roleblock though.

Edited to add:

Being known to have SB isn't the end of the world either; depending on the player, it can reduce the efficacy of Elim control kill plays, so eh.

Edited to add 2:

In roleblock world, things get a bit more complicated because as long as the target has Iron Will, we'll never know who got hit. But then this is resolved because the roleblocker knows who is Evil. Which is all that really matters for us.

Edited to add 3:

Tbh am less interested in trying to ID who exactly got hit - more the compulsive puzzle-solving part of my brain just wants to know what the heck went on.

Edited to add 4:

Reason why I think getting the picture matters, FWIW - consider kill denial world. Odds of the Elim team including experimenters like Devo, Alv, maybe Aman or DeTess shoots up. But Devo brought up another possibility which is that the Elims don't have kill protection. Which raises questions about Mat again, our known Silver Bone. I'd lean Village in that world because I think there's less incentive to lose their only protection to a slow-burn endgame train.

Edited to add 5:

Actually ignore my comments on Shade Experts, I forgot they have default Silver Bones.

Edited April 28, 2023 by Kasimir

[The Unknown Ajah]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

I think Kas’s analysis is sound; either the elims deliberately didn’t send a kill, or they got roleblocked. The other options require too many things to line up nicely.

Did we determine all the voting shenanigans last cycle? Because if not, I’d propose going after the non-voting D1 players as a combined CC and legitimate POE for who used Voice.

As someone else said, all are accounted for.

1 hour ago, DeTess said:

So, I'm feeling dumb now. I think I was entering a bit of a tunnel on Archer now as their vote looked really sketchy to me, but I completely missed them being part of the three-way tie, despite this having been mentioned several times

So yeah, that vote at least wasn't as sketchy as I thought it was, and with the rest of the situation there I think I'm going to back off from an Archer (or Mat) lynch until there's a bit more info floating around that could help resolve what happened D1.

I'm going to start going over all the players one by one to try to get some more solid reads. I'm pretty low in energy right now though, so I'm not sure I'll be able to get through the entire list before the end of the cycle.

Starting with Ashbringer, as they are getting some suspicion and I don't really have any sort of read on them right now.

They have a fair number of posts, but a lot of it is just aimless banter, though this seems to be improving a bit more recently. They provided some reads towards the end of D1, but didn't really provide much reasoning for why they felt certain ways about certain people. I think it's a little noteworthy that the vote they ended up settling on wasn't really supported by their own reasoning, but by just stating agreement with someone else's work.

Overall I don't have much of an opinion on them yet, but I think it's a little telling how few alignment indicative things they've said while clearly being engaged with the game to some degree at least. I haven't seen them play before so this might be normal to their playstyle, but I can't help but wonder if their posting style is a way of seeming engaged while hiding. Final read would be slight elim.

I've got time for one more, so moving on to the known novel.

... @The Known Novelcould you give some opinions on someone that is not Mat?

Seriously though, I think it's noteworthy how much TKN talked about Mat, but I'm not really seeing this being an elim trait? I think an elim wouldn't want to be so obviously focused on one person because it both looks odd and might invite retaliatory attention. I guess I'm leaning very slightly village because of this, but it's more gut than anything else, and I really hope to see TKN diversify their attention a little bit.

I'm getting mildly annoyed how much people think I'm fixating on Mat. I said a Mat opinion at a time when everyone else was doing so, Kas asked for clarification, I did, Archer said I was fixating, I responded, Kas asked for clarification again. I've just been responding to you guys, and the only thing you're talking to me about is Mat. And I already stated that I have a mild sus of Archer. I think Kas is in his v!meta right now, otherwise I don't have many opinions.

[Kasimir]

4 hours ago, Elandera said:

Any form of protection or roleblock that stops an attack, no matter where in the OoA, will cause Broken Survivors unless specifically stated otherwise. 

K I'm pretty sure the answer is 'lol no Kas u trippin' but I gotta get an answer to this because it's disturbing:

Redirecting a kill doesn't cause 2x Broken Survivors, one on OG target, and one on new target, assuming no Iron Will involved?

Edited to add:

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Fair probably worth saying I actively decided to take the night turn off due to the lack of a flip taking the wind out of my sails. And now it feels like it's D1 again

As Araris would say, Elan felt we don't vote enough D1, so wanted to give us more practice at it :eyes:

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Also I still haven't grasped the rules tbh; all the percentages and complicated explanations for what could explain the lack of an NK are kinda melting my brain rn lol

Tbf, doesn't really change our job of finding the Elims. I did get a bit carried away because puzzles and the idea that one player might have info that could lead to the exe of a near-confirmed Elim was exciting but that's no longer in our hands. Just gotta focus on putting one metaphorical foot in front of the other, I expect.

Someplace I've stalled is that most of my suspicions seem to have petered out in terms of 'player is just struggling rn' which to be fair, can be true alongside them also being Evil but I don't have enough SAN to compute right now.

Edited April 28, 2023 by Kasimir

[Steeldancer]

Dangit I didn't go insane. My terrible plans have been foiled! 

No deaths? I can't decide whether thats just hilarious or really bad. It's really hard to parse any information without anybody being dead. It basically ends up being the same issue that I have with day one, I have nothing to work with lol. 

I'll try and find some time in the next day or so to actually read thread. But fair warning I'm in the middle of starting a YouTube channel so I'm busy with that. 

[Kasimir]

On re-reading, Ash's assumption I got hit and it was Alv is interesting. We all definitely assumed I got hit at the start while grappling with the rules of the game, but I'm surprised the natural inference for Ash is Alv rather than Mat, who wrote a whole essay urging his team to N1 me in Araris's game.

Slight protective Mat vote, and this. 

Also potential distancing on Mat's end? IDK, throwing thoughts out.

I admit I'm giving most playstyle claims right now the benefit of the doubt until I have the SAN for it.

Edited to add:

1 minute ago, Steeldancer said:

Dangit I didn't go insane. My terrible plans have been foiled! 

Is there some reason you expected to go insane?

Edited April 28, 2023 by Kasimir

[---]

TJ
Kasimir
Sart
JNV

It's not a lot but it's all I can do right now. 

I keep passing out while trying to read or type or anything so im gonna post this empty post with no promise for a follow up

im washed

[Elandera]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Redirecting a kill doesn't cause 2x Broken Survivors, one on OG target, and one on new target, assuming no Iron Will involved?

It does not cause double Broken Survivors because the action still goes through, just on an unintended target.

[Steeldancer]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

On re-reading, Ash's assumption I got hit and it was Alv is interesting. We all definitely assumed I got hit at the start while grappling with the rules of the game, but I'm surprised the natural inference for Ash is Alv rather than Mat, who wrote a whole essay urging his team to N1 me in Araris's game.

Slight protective Mat vote, and this. 

Also potential distancing on Mat's end? IDK, throwing thoughts out.

I admit I'm giving most playstyle claims right now the benefit of the doubt until I have the SAN for it.

Edited to add:

Is there some reason you expected to go insane?

Expect? No. I just wanted to because I think it would be fun. 

[Mat]

4 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Expect? No. I just wanted to because I think it would be fun. 

Fun to not be able to do anything?

[Archer]

15 hours ago, Alvron said:

Working together is more important than keeping a former fellow elim alive.

seeing as I'm not a former evil teammate of yours *chuckles* I'm in danger

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Can't vote, can't take Day action, immune to insanity for two cycles thereafter unless I do something incredibly kayana like read a Spellbook. Warmmha says suffer not witches to- oh huh.

Smh. People need to appreciate PMs more.

I see. I misread what you said as you saying you weren't fully insane or something. But clearly you're fully insane if you're engaging in a witch hunt

By the way, my light assumption in the failed NK of you scenario was that your partner (and maybe the Writer) were village. 

4 hours ago, DeTess said:

I think I was entering a bit of a tunnel on Archer now as their vote looked really sketchy to me,

Oh no!

Quote

but I completely missed them being part of the three-way tie, despite this having been mentioned several times

Anyway. I was wondering what you were going on about. How do you feel about Devo trying to egg Mat into voting on you D1? 

4 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Curse you Uncertainty >:(

Is this an elim tell? 

4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Can't say that I love Araris' return being an agreement with Kas mech thoughts and a suggestion to CC :P.

This also didn't sit well with me. I also didn't like their vote on me D1

2 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

I'll try and find some time in the next day or so to actually read thread

Would genuinely be okay with people treating this like D1 and RNGing a vote before they go. We're a little lacking in the vote department so far. I'm also guilty of that, so Araris.

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

TJ
Kasimir
Sart
JNV

It ain't much, but it's honest work. But seriously, is that list top clears or trust to sus? Why is TJ so high? 

Just now, Steeldancer said:

Expect? No. I just wanted to because I think it would be fun. 

"I see this as an absolute win", you'll say when you go insane from submitting the NK. And we won't question it

[---]

Ashbringer

Ash and Archer have decent likelihood of being teamed based on how D1 played out.
While Mat pings are out the wazoo, He also is relatively unaligned with a few players theoretically and therefore isn't a priority kill.

Optimally resolving one of the D1 trains is the best thing to do so that they don't come back to haunt us later with all the "suspicious because of wagons" that might happen but also has no basis without flipped players involved.

Detess looks good based on their last post, specifically because we should be moving on from the mech discussion of vote manip and insanity. I wouldn't feel this way if they completely ignored that part of the day and posted random things instead, but they acknoledged it, moved on, and tagged people for comments.

EDIT:

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

TJ
Kasimir
Sart
JNV
Detess

In no particular order

EDIT EDIT:

@DeTess What do you think about the possiblity that as an Elim TKN is trying to focus on one person as to not have to focus on other villagers/other teammates and potentially out them should he flip?

Also in (edit: apparently not an) agreement with mat, I like the finality of Araris' comment. I don't think it's enough for me to call Araris village, since i usually feel a lot stronger about my opinion on Araris.

Edited April 28, 2023 by Illwei