Mid-Range Game 63: The Outcasts of Tyrian Falls

[DeTess she/her]

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Suggesting an idea without following through and not thinking about all of the nuances of the rules are both things that I read as a factor of them being new, not evil. That's why I asked about how you viewed their experience in regards to reading them-- for me, those points reenforce my village read, not take away from it. At least the second one of those. I'd actually be more surprised if v!Alpha had been aware of the tie thing, since I (and many other players, it would seem) completely forgot about it.

Right so, rereading their posts and I think the main thing that stuck out to me was their push on Aman because it felt so different compared with everything else. It felt like either a mask temporarily coming off, or maybe something they put together in communication with collaborators, but it left me feeling quite suspicious.

Anyway, I'll be off for the rest of the cycle in 2-3 hours, but I'll check in before then once, and if there is no interest in an Alpha execution I'll probably add my vote to the stick one instead.

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him]

I’m going camping today, but I get back tomorrow and should be able to post

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, TheAlpha929 said:

I’m going camping today, but I get back tomorrow and should be able to post

Have fun

ED1T:

On an unrelated note, I'm going to cry if TKN decided to exclude the Mobborn due to us starting with 9 players

Edited April 21, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Stick. she/her]

6 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Furthermore, Mobborn recruitment comes before execution, so if Alpha did indeed recruit Stick, she would have been tie immune and thus him choosing her despite the tie is explainable

That strategy's needlessly risky for Mobborn!Alpha given that they wouldn't have been able to predict how any vote manip might have affected the exe. So I could have just died right after getting converted. Also, if I did get converted it would have been really stupid of me to claim that PM with Alpha cuz the Tineye wont be able to see that PM and will call us out on the lie.

9 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Y'know, now that I think of it, the Mobborn can use their recruitment as a way to guarantee we find an elim. We put a couple players up for a tie again, the Mobborn recruits one of them, and if the kill redirects to the converting Mobborn, then we know they're a baddie. If the conversion is successful, we've got a surviving villager

Dunno if Mat's a coinshot tbh but if yes then yeah they can do that

[Mat he/him]

Stick, DeTess

• DeTess (2): _Stick_, Matrim's Dice
• Shining Silhouette (1): JNV
• Amanuensis (1): TheAlpha929
• _Stick_ (1): Amanuensis
• TheAlpha929 (1): DeTess

Edit: @_Stick_ what does me being a CS have to do with this? xD

 

Edited April 21, 2023 by Matrim's Dice
Fixing VC

[Stick. she/her]

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

what does me being a CS have to do with this? xD

@The Known Novel what happens when an elim is roleblocked and recruited at the same time? 

[Amanuensis he/him]

14 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

That strategy's needlessly risky for Mobborn!Alpha given that they wouldn't have been able to predict how any vote manip might have affected the exe. So I could have just died right after getting converted. Also, if I did get converted it would have been really stupid of me to claim that PM with Alpha cuz the Tineye wont be able to see that PM and will call us out on the lie.

Dunno if Mat's a coinshot tbh but if yes then yeah they can do that

The fact that you're not claiming Mobborn when it would save your life means it's neither of you then, huh? That would make this much simpler =\

13 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Stick, DeTess

• DeTess (2): _Stick_, Matrim's Dice
• Shining Silhouette (2): Amanuensis, JNV
• Amanuensis (1): TheAlpha929
• _Stick_ (1): Amanuensis
• TheAlpha929 (1): DeTess

You forgor to remove my vote from Silho

 

Informers win by reaching parity with both Skaa and Mobborn combined. This means...

(Worst case scenario, no Informer exes)

C2: 5 Skaa + Mobborn vs. 2 Informers
C3: 3 Skaa + Mobborn vs. 2 Informers
AM: 1 Skaa + Mobborn vs. 2 Informers (Informer Victory)

(Best case scenario, Informer exe today, Informer exe tomorrow)

C2: 5 Skaa + Mobborn vs. 2 Informers
C3: 4 Skaa + Mobborn vs. 1 Informers
AM: 3 Skaa + Mobborn vs. 0 Informer (Victory to Skaa or Mobborn depending purely on which side the Informers happen to kill more of)

(Middle ground scenario, Informer exe today, Village exe tomorrow)

C2: 5 Skaa + Mobborn vs. 2 Informers
C3: 4 Skaa + Mobborn vs. 1 Informers
C4: 2 Skaa + Mobborn vs. 1 Informer
AM: Victory depends on final execution

(AM stands for Aftermath)

IMO both factions need to work together eventually for either of them to have a solid chance at winning.

Edited April 21, 2023 by Amanuensis

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him]

9 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Have fun

ED1T:

On an unrelated note, I'm going to cry if TKN decided to exclude the Mobborn due to us starting with 9 players

I will!

 I hadn’t considered that possibility, but it makes sense that it could’ve happened. Also your point about me getting super excited about every time you mention the Mobborn makes sense as well, tho to be honest I think it’s just cause I’m in a game with an extra faction so I’m getting overly excited about it.

DeTess is starting to drop lower on my suspect list, because she is making some good arguments (even if they’re false which I have to say since it’s about me, even though I might be an Informer)

I’m a Coinshot 

[Amanuensis he/him]

On 4/20/2023 at 4:32 AM, DeTess said:

VC:
Stick(2): Mat, Aman, Archer
Aman(1): Alpha, Silho
Archer(2): Stick, Araris
Alpha(1): DeTess, Aman
Araris(2): Archer, Silho

Then Silho switched again, breaking the tie and putting archer in the lead.

VC:
Stick(2): Mat, Aman, Archer
Aman(1): Alpha, Silho
Archer(3): Stick, Araris, Silho
Alpha(1): DeTess, Aman
Araris(1): Archer, Silho

The last move was Archer moving back to stick

VC:
Stick(3): Mat, Aman, Archer, Archer
Aman(1): Alpha, Silho
Archer(3): Stick, Araris, Silho
Alpha(1): DeTess, Aman
Araris(0): Archer, Silho

Here's what I think is the root of my Stick/Silho pairing, and why nothing either of them says is particularly convincing for me:

Silho was the only player to break yesterday's tie, and a known villager, Archer, would have been guaranteed to die had Archer himself not voted Stick in an attempt to survive via RNG. Not only that, but Stick had votes on her for most of the cycle and Silho consistently voted for every other option that wasn't her while simultaneously never voting the same player as her until the very end, when her life was seriously in danger.

At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if Stick is an e!Seeker that placed an order on her partner in order to gather information. Like, for example, if Silho put in the kill and they were concerned about him being roleblocked, they'd be able to see who did it and kill them next, while also providing them a convenient alibi in any other scenario.

ED1T:

I also think this Archer post is worth resurfacing

Edited April 21, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Stick. she/her]

I mean this in the nicest way but this is getting a little ridiculous and I haven't seen a single valid case against me that doesn't just rely on a bunch of assumptions. If resolving my slot is what's gonna take for the village to snap into place then so be it, but I think we're making a big mistake by getting rid of the village power role and doing the elims a huge favour by rolling that and a misexe into one nice little package.

I know I'm not leading the exe rn but I have full confidence in both DeTess and JNV (or whoever the second elim is) to plop their votes on my wagon before rollover. So fine. Let's just lock that exe in and move the discussion forward instead of going around in circles because I think everybody has been saying the same thing for 4 pages now.

Edited April 21, 2023 by _Stick_
removed extra word

[DeTess she/her]

1 hour ago, TheAlpha929 said:

I’m a Coinshot 

That would make you the village's second coinshot, which is a lot of defensive power when the only source of kills is the elims, which makes me a little doubtful of this claim. If Aman hadn't claimed thug I might have been more inclined to believe it, but a thug and two coinshots seems overkill wrt defensive powers. Unless there is actually 3 elims, of course, but that would give the village only a single mislynch if the elims managed to get two kills in in the first two cycles anyway.

Anyway, final post of this cycle, maybe this game. As I said, since it doesn't seem like people are interested in an Alpha execution this cycle I'll follow Stick's suggestion:

On 4/20/2023 at 11:52 AM, _Stick_ said:

@DeTess why didn’t you vote for me? IMO it was clear that an Alpha train wouldn’t be viable since so many of us were village reading them, so why leave your vote there? 

Stick

Edited April 21, 2023 by DeTess

[Stick. she/her]

tbh I was gr but then I watched some Breaking Bad and now Im good so here have some memes

1.

Spoiler

 

Breaking Bad inspired

2.

Spoiler

 

SE-washed phone smh

3.

Spoiler

 

This one's obvs just speculation but it's funny

 

Edited April 21, 2023 by _Stick_
removed extra word

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

6 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Oh no. I was absolutely serious. In my honest opinion, the Mobborn not working with the Skaa (and vice versa) is most likely going to cost both sides a loss.

If we don't execute an Informer today, it doesn't matter if it's Mobborn or Skaa that dies to either kill. C3 it will be 2 Informers versus 3 whatevers, and treating the Mobborn like enemies will only hand victory over to the Informers.

It's part of the reason I volunteered to become a Mobborn in the first place; to encourage a truce. Since that didn't happen I have to ask someone else to take that leap of faith.

I for one have zero intention of voting Mobborn, ever, period. I don't mind which village faction wins in the end. It's going to come down to luck tbh. But I'd very much mind Informers winning.

ED1T:

@The Known Novel which team wins if the game ends with only 1 Skaa Survivor and 1 Mobborn alive? (Both wincon say outnumber, so neither or both?)

 

No-one wins, it is a mutual loss for all factions. 

[Mat he/him]

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

I know I'm not leading the exe rn but I have full confidence in both DeTess and JNV (or whoever the second elim is) to plop their votes on my wagon before rollover. So fine. Let's just lock that exe in and move the discussion forward instead of going around in circles because I think everybody has been saying the same thing for 4 pages now.

You can't just say this right after I turned around :|

[Amanuensis he/him]

I'm willing to execute Silho first, in case v!Seeker!Stick is really the reality.

I don't quite yet see how e!DeTess can work (teammate would need to be one of Mat, JNV, or Silho) + (Araris kill is confusing, given DeTess and JNV weren't here for EoD and I blocked Mat), but am open to arguments.

Edited April 21, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Mat he/him]

38 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I'm willing to execute Silho first, in case v!Seeker!Stick is really the reality.

I don't quite yet see how e!DeTess can work (teammate would need to be one of Mat, JNV, or Silho) + (Araris kill is confusing, given DeTess and JNV weren't here for EoD and I blocked Mat), but am open to arguments.

Why only those three? DeTess could have done the kill (as well as e!Tineye!Alpha/JNV, Stick, and Shining) so it isn't that which eliminates anyone. The weird thing about DeTess arguing that the Araris kill must have been submitted early or right at the end is that the former incriminates herself, but I don't know what the VC was when DeTess logged off. Honestly I can see a Shining/DeTess team so I'm okay with those trains.

[Stick. she/her]

I guess it could be silho…my gut still wants to village read him but perhaps I’m giving him credit where I shouldn’t because his Elim meta sample size isn’t the largest. 

Im a little surprised we only have two PM claims. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

33 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Why only those three? DeTess could have done the kill (as well as e!Tineye!Alpha/JNV, Stick, and Shining) so it isn't that which eliminates anyone. The weird thing about DeTess arguing that the Araris kill must have been submitted early or right at the end is that the former incriminates herself, but I don't know what the VC was when DeTess logged off. Honestly I can see a Shining/DeTess team so I'm okay with those trains.

DeTess has consistently voted Stick and Alpha, so that only leaves you, JNV, and Silho as potential partners.

e!Stick doesn't really work with v!Silho, given how much she's been fighting their pairing. Either they're both elims and she's trying to delay their deaths as long as possible or Stick is village and really believes Silho is village.

Silho, however, could be elim with someone other than Stick. I personally haven't been convinced of his innocence, nor of anyone else's guilt, so if I want to resolve Stick's slot without potentially killing a village Seeker, here's a way to do it.

Thankfully, if Silho does flip village, we can exe DeTess C3 and find their partner C4. We could also theoretically flip DeTess first, so I'm not wholly opposed to that route.

Possible I'm tunneling. But I also tunneled e!Biplet that one recent game when no one else agreed, so I'm wary of giving up on my convictions too easily.

[Stick. she/her]

It’s tied at 2/2 now? That sounds okay to me and the two will probably self pres onto each other bringing it to 3/3 leaving it up to Alpha to break the tie if they want to, and if the game’s got any vote manip at all I suspect we’ll see it in play this cycle. 

Edit:

that’s me for the cycle, probably 

Edited April 21, 2023 by _Stick_

[Amanuensis he/him]

2 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

It’s tied at 2/2 now? That sounds okay to me and the two will probably self pres onto each other bringing it to 3/3 leaving it up to Alpha to break the tie if they want to, and if the game’s got any vote manip at all I suspect we’ll see it in play this cycle. 

Edit:

that’s me for the cycle, probably 

 

• DeTess (2): _Stick_, Matrim's Dice
• Shining Silhouette (2): JNV, Amanuensis
• Amanuensis (1): TheAlpha929
• _Stick_ (1): DeTess

We still have another full day in the cycle, don't we?

Edited April 21, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Stick. she/her]

what ._. 

I don’t think so

The time posts on this thread are messing with my perception of time but I’m sure it was two days ago that I was preparing to die to the tie 

Edited April 21, 2023 by _Stick_

[Amanuensis he/him]

3 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

what ._. 

I don’t think so

The time posts on this thread are messing with my perception of time but I’m sure it was two days ago that I was preparing to die to the tie 

Ooo, it's because in my timezone, this thread was posted at 12:30 A.M. (so the OP says yesterday). Confusing

Edited April 21, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Stick. she/her]

It’s straight up wrong for me it says 8:30 am yesterday but it’s past 12 am now so it shouldn’t say yesterday anymore and it had my head spinning for a minute. Weird. 

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

It’s tied at 2/2 now?

ties are chill. but unfortunately we can't let them stay that way

schiyning chyilhowette

[Mat he/him]

stahp the self voting smh

Edit: Gtg to work so I probably won’t be back until next turn

Don't do anything stupid :D.

Edited April 22, 2023 by Matrim's Dice