Long Game 82: Secrets Written in Metal

[Araris Valerian]

Oh yeah, I should mention that my activity will be spotty on MWF this week, for entirely unrelated reasons each day.

[danex]

still haven't read anything
like literally anything
not even the writeups
like i don't even know who's dead rn

but the one post i did just read mentioned smthn about my vote on archer
so i'll go ahead and explain that
it was 100000% a joke
absolutely meant to change it
and then just didn't

and now i gotta go do a semesters worth of work in 2 different classes in 5 days so ya might not see me for a bit

if killing me would somehow give the village good info
you can do that i guess
i do really want to play this game, so ill try to sqeeze in a read of it sometime soon

[Sart]

vote count:
danex/ookla the quantificational (1): archer/ookla the paranormal, tani/ookla of anarchy and chaos
archer/ookla the paranormal (1): szeth/ookla the confused, mage
tani/ookla of anarchy and chaos (0): kasimir
sart/ookla the lowercase (1): araris/ookla the porched
araris/ookla the porched (1): szeth/ookla the confused, kasimir
mage (2): kasimir, archer/ookla the paranormal

sorry for going a bit inactive; this weekend was busy for me. i've been trying to browse on mobile, and now is the time to make a vote now that i'm back home. unfortunately, we're operating at an information deficit. to counteract that, i'm going to make some assumptions.

• assumption 1: all villagers have an extra life. i know i have one, and three people have survived death. it's clear we're dealing with a troll gm
• assumption 2: all elims have an extra life. if they didn't, once one of them died to a single hit, we could easily clear a wide swathe of players.
• assumption 3: all villagers have a one-shot kill. i have one, kas is claiming one, illwei knew about them, and szeth used his.
• assumption 4: the elims do not have one-shot kills. my reasoning is simple. if you check the rules that were posted, mat said, quote, " The Feruchemists have a doc to communicate, and a kill each Night." having both a standard night kill in addition to one-shot kills is simply too much firepower.
• assumption 5: the elims have other powers. even with extra lives, there's a lot of fire power being thrown around. to balance the game, they would need some extra minor power. perhaps a one-time vote manipulation or a one-time lurch? in addition, this game is flavored as feruchemy vs alchemy. it would be odd if the powers were exactly the same on both sides.

my conclusion is simple. szeth_pancakes is a feruchemist. they claimed a power other than a kill, hoping to blend in with a low-key claim. they made an incorrect assumption based on the information found in their doc. i've always preferred to use role analysis to guide my votes, and i think this is a sound deduction. szeth, do you have a rebuttal? what power are you claiming to have besides a kill?

[---]

ok lol

Sart

Edited December 6, 2021 by Ooklil' the Wei

[Kasimir]

12 hours ago, Ookla the Porched said:

You forget LG 20 (but I am assuming here that your village skills translate well into elim-that-can-talk-like-a-villager skills).

Eh, didn't really play and had to get subbed out so.

Here's the thing. There's something that Sart is missing that makes it unlikely for Szeth to be Elim. But this is tied to something Szeth did that was rulebreaking (copying and pasting PMs, you can check the edit receipt on Szeth's N1 post) and is likely guiding Illwei's reprisal vote on Sart. Sart may not have seen it, either. Not sure who else was online at that time. But since Szeth was not supposed to do that, I'm discarding that as a reason for any positive read I have for Szeth and just basing it on the extensive tunnel.

Anyway:

10 hours ago, Ookla the Porched said:

Yeah, we really need an ISO feature, that would boost the quality of life around here by a lot. I wonder how hard something like that would be to implement, and if it would be useful on other parts of the forum.

I do it by scanning the player's post history instead. Works better on those who aren't active on other parts of the forum unfortunately. Otherwise...huh. I wonder if it's possible to edit Straw/Orlok's post bot... Or even Drake's tallybot, just extract posts instead...

Unfortunately I don't have time to evaluate things so I'm going to leave my vote where it is with my apologies. I've just gotten a week's worth of work dumped on me and have been told it has to be solved and dispatched by midday tomorrow. As it is, I'm likely going to have to pull an all-nighter. I don't have bandwidth to do any serious thinking or processing right now. (As I've said before, I think blue text sets a bad precedent culturally but will be happy to do so if requested to.) I don't expect to return until at least mid-Night tomorrow, which should be fine; you all can discuss vig kill targets and I'll catch up on it. I think it's wise to simply pick a set of vig kill targets so anyone using the kill cannot be so easily predicted. But thanks for showing up, Danex, Mage.

See you guys on the other side of my mountain of requests.

[Quivil]

Danex.

I literally said Reva poked him.

I didn't see if he's responded yet, but it's getting close to the end of the round and I'm not hitting him with a sword just cause he didnt talk.

Life really enjoys happening.

[Archer]

7 hours ago, ookla the quantificational said:

like i don't even know who's dead rn

You are, mate. I shot you very aggressively. Starting to regret that though. 

7 hours ago, ookla the lowercase said:

my conclusion is simple. szeth_pancakes is a feruchemist. they claimed a power other than a kill, hoping to blend in with a low-key claim. they made an incorrect assumption based on the information found in their doc. i've always preferred to use role analysis to guide my votes, and i think this is a sound deduction. szeth, do you have a rebuttal? what power are you claiming to have besides a kill?

Danex was shot by me, not Szeth. Szeth has claimed an unknown other ability. Could it be that every villager has a kill and the elims all have something else? Yes, and I like the train of thought. But it was me, not them, so you might want to reconsider.

Speaking of claims, we're going to have trouble separating the coinshots from the NK tommorow, perhaps by design. I encourage everyone to be forthcoming with what they do.

I'm getting mild village reads on Danex, Szeth AND Illwei, which is everyone who voted for me, so that points to Sart, who hoped off. Unless it really was just all villagers. On that note, I'm reminded of Mage's analysis where they suggested the leading train was all village. It was a weird assumption. I wonder if that was an elim slip. Coupled with them not suspecting me-Araris and instead coming up with me-Illwei, I'm leaning back towards an Araris/Mage team, and would support a wagon on one of them today. 

[Mat]

About 45 minutes left!

• Sart (2): Araris Valerian, Illwei
• Araris Valerian (1): Szeth_Pancakes
• Mage (2): Kasimir, Archer
• Archer (1): Mage
• Szeth_Pancakes (1): Sart

[Mat]

Time!

[Mat]

lg82: night two: mr lowercase

of all the inconspicuous characters in luthadel, none were more so than mr lowercase. appearing in town only recently (at least as far as anyone could remember), mr lowercase tended to hang about, trading boxings and never speaking his first name no matter how much he was asked it. his opinions were strong, and noir music followed his every move.

the townsfolk seemed to know something was up with him, though. luthadel was primarily a home of allomancers, and while ordinary terrismen were nice enough the aggressive feruchemist interlopers were on everyone's mind. it didn't take long to realize mr lowercase's long sleeve shirt was bunchy around the forearms, more so than was typical of a shirt. he disregarded the initial comments and questions about it, but soon had to start blaming his launderer and make other such excuses. but the interest didn't stop.

finally, it was too much. mr lowercase rolled up his sleeves and showed the world why his sleeves were so bunchy.

arm bracers. the feruchemy kind.

he tried to explain that he was the nice kind of terrisman, but it didn't take a genius to know that a nice terrisman wouldn't have hidden that he was, in fact, a terrisman.

and just like that, mr lowercase was no more.

---

sart has been executed! he was a feruchemist!

vote count:

• sart (2): araris valerian, illwei
• araris valerian (1): szeth_pancakes
• mage (2): kasimir, archer
• archer (1): mage
• szeth_pancakes (1): sart

night two has begun, and will conclude in about 24 hours, on tuesday, december 7th, at 10am pst.

• don't forget any actions!
• pms are closed.

player list:

Spoiler

1. @Ookla the Porched (Araris Valerian) - Lord Hadrian Penrod
2. @Ooklil' the Wei (Illwei)
3. @Ookla of Anarchy and Chaos (Tani) - Reva
4. @ookla the quantificational (Danex)
5. @Ookla the Confused (Szeth_Pancakes)
6. @Mage
7. ookla the lowercase (Sart) - Feruchemist
8. @Ookla the Paranormal (Archer) - Brawnze
9. @Ookla the Wyrmslayer (Kasimir) - Kiril Jerzy

Edited December 6, 2021 by Ookla the Pianist
initially had 'died' instead of 'been executed'

[Szeth_Pancakes]

wait what

[Araris Valerian]

Hmm, not all the elims have an extra life. Also, Sart could have self-preservation voted (on Mage, or on Archer/myself for a 3-way tie), but didn't. I'm still busy, so I'll decide what that means later.

[Archer]

XD. This game is funny sometimes. If I had a nickel for every game where an elim was a viable candidate D1 and I refused to believe we'd get that lucky... I'd have at least 20 cents. 

-Sart voted Szeth, so they're village. 

-Illwei and Araris voted Sart, so they're village. 

-Sart didn't have an extra life, so the elim team is probably three people. Edit: or no elims have extra lives and there's four

-I don't look great off of this flip because Kas and I made up the CW, and I (a Thug) inserted myself into exe contention D1 when he was in danger. In my defense, I'd argue that Sart could have kept his vote on D1 for distancing reasons, but I understand if it makes strategic sense to the get the question mark I represent out of the way now so you can focus on the actual elims. 

-My kill order right now from first to last is Mage, Kas, Tani, Danex. Peeling back some extra lives will help make the exe more threatening, so if you've got a gun, I say you take your shot. I haven't done a reread yet though, so take that with a grain of salt. That's an if I live to tommorow problem. 

Edited December 6, 2021 by Ookla the Paranormal

[Kasimir]

Ugh. It's 6AM, I haven't slept yet, and I'm about 1.5 years into cleaning 4 years of data for that frickin' last minute rubbish request.

At this rate, I don't know if I'll be back substantively before rollover or much of a presence in Day Two because I'll need sleep after the request is done, and my work inbox is still heating up, so if anyone wants to take a couple shots at me tonight and tomorrow, you're welcome. I likely won't be doing more than warm body voting duty for the immediate future because this bloody work request is setting me back on the schedule that was supposed to let me play this game and study for my exams at the same time.

My immediate thought is that I have a stronger Village read on Illwei now, still one on Szeth, and one on Araris.

I don't know about Danex - I can see the Village toneread from late Danex and Sart was quick to mention Danex as a sus, but Danex's pile-on made the Archer train outcompete the Sart train (remember, it was 2-3), which should be especially noteworthy since Sart didn't have an extra life. Granted, it was early in the cycle and what happened could be closer to TUO in Lotus's MR where Village action made this unnecessary.

Formally, the set of people I am willing to shoot tonight will boil down to <Archer, Danex, Tani, Mage>, not in any particular order.

I'm going to make my judgement call, RNGesus for it, and send in the order now in case I forget or can't make it on in time for any changes.

 

[Quivil]

6 hours ago, Ookla the Pianist said:

sart has been executed! he was a feruchemist!

vote count:

• sart (2): araris valerian, illwei
• araris valerian (1): szeth_pancakes
• mage (2): kasimir, archer
• archer (1): mage
• szeth_pancakes (1): sart

You know, I think this is the first time ever that I've been actually glad an edit or post of mine went poof. It's an... interesting experience.

In the edit I was saying some stuff, including that I thought maybe I trusted sart and was voting Szeth.

Apologies, Szeth.

 

I was also roleclaiming, which I'm still gonna do. I'm a thug with a Coinshot kill, currently unused.

 

 

Kas, go to sleep. Edit: Once you can.

Edited December 7, 2021 by Ookla of Anarchy and Chaos

[---]

7 hours ago, Ookla the Porched said:

Hmm, not all the elims have an extra life. Also, Sart could have self-preservation voted (on Mage, or on Archer/myself for a 3-way tie), but didn't. I'm still busy, so I'll decide what that means later.

First of all "not all" ? you know another elim, Araris?

I am wondering if they can absorb people's lives somehow, but. idk yknow.

Anyways

we're at a good place rn with 6 v. 1 or 5 v. 2

Illwei
Araris
Szeth

Mage

Tani
Kasimir
Archer

A Mage/Sart team has very little reason to target me N1. Kas/Archer/Araris feel like people who would. Tani might but a Tani/Sart team also doesn't feel like it would go for me. 

mage is only up so high in the case of a 2 person team, and honestly that isn't seeming like it's going to be the case

Edited December 7, 2021 by Ooklil' the Wei

[Araris Valerian]

11 minutes ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

we're at a good place rn with 6 v. 1 or 5 v. 2

Illwei
Araris
Szeth

Mage

Tani
Kasimir
Archer

You're missing Danex. Which is even better, puts us at 7-1 or 6-2. I'll also point out that Archer and Danex have both survived a kill (you have as well). That's worth considering given that Sart didn't have an extra life.

[---]

7 hours ago, Ookla the Porched said:

You're missing Danex. Which is even better, puts us at 7-1 or 6-2. I'll also point out that Archer and Danex have both survived a kill (you have as well). That's worth considering given that Sart didn't have an extra life.

wait there were 9 people lmfao ok

uh

eh

EDIT: 

I realized that mage isn't teamed with Archer or Kas. Either the team was mage/tani/sart, which i find unlikely, or Mage is just a villager. 

Bussing is possible but i don't see the benefit rn. 

Illwei
Araris
Szeth
Mage

Danex
Tani
Kasimir
Archer

Edited December 7, 2021 by Ooklil' the Wei

[Mat]

Night's over.

[Mat]

LG82: Day Three: Murder Thrice Mirrored

It was normal, for circumstances such as this (two separate parties unhappy with one another) to attempt to solve the problem by way of calm discussion during daylight hours. All across the cosmere, throughout its history and many iterations, groups have done just that. More often than not, however, the calm discussion turned into murder. Every time! It happened almost every time. The success rate of the strategy wasn't as high as it could be, but since it was much higher than not doing anything at all, there was no reason to start doing anything different now.

These Scadrians, these silly Scadrians, were so close to correctly following the pattern. They all got together, sure, but there was one crucial difference in their method.

They gathered in the courtyard when the moon was high and the sun was low.

It had taken some convincing to get a few of them out when the mist was looming in the alleyways, but since everyone here aligned with a Metallic Art they weren't as scared as common skaa would have been. (Danex in particular was thrilled). They circled up to discuss the death of the Feruchemist known only as mr lowercase, and what his past mannerisms could mean. They theorized the abilities of the people standing next to them.

For some reason, they didn't demand everyone roll up their sleeves. That would have solved the problem much, much quicker. Perhaps they would have, if not for the rude interruption of three attacks. They came independent of each other, but the last happened only seconds after the first.

The first came via spear, hefted from five feet away. It caught Illwei in the side and she crumpled instantly. The assailant fled before anyone even knew they were there.

The second was in the form of an arrow, shot from a nearby rooftop. It flew true, striking Brawnze in the back. He hardly made a sound as he joined the leatherworker. The archer on the roof stayed only long enough to assure his target was dead.

The third attack was the jab of a knife, aimed at Reva's neck. The glint of steel caught in the moonlight just before the swing was made, and several gasps echoed one another. At the sound of them, Reva turned, and the knife flew past her nose, nicking the tip of it. Reva touched the wound, raising a hand to brush her face, and her finger came back a little red.

Quickly, Reva swept the feet out from under the attacker, not intending to let a third get away. He collapsed on the ground and she pulled him into the light cast by the moon. 

He was no one Reva had ever seen. She understood what had happened, now. As Reva looked around the circle, she knew that three of them, anticipating the meeting, had hired assassins to do the dirty work they couldn't. Skaa nobodies who would kill for a few boxings.

Two had succeeded, and now two of them were dead.

---

Illwei has died! She was an Allomancer!

Archer has died! He was an Allomancer!

Tani was attacked, but survived!

Day Three has begun, and will last for about 48 hours, ending on Thursday, December 9th, at 10am PST.

• There will be an execution today, with a 1 vote minimum. Ties will result in RNG deciding between the tied parties.
• PMs are closed.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @Ookla the Porched (Araris Valerian) - Lord Hadrian Penrod
2. Ooklil' the Wei (Illwei) - Allomancer
3. @Ookla of Anarchy and Chaos (Tani) - Reva
4. @ookla the quantificational (Danex)
5. @Ookla the Confused (Szeth_Pancakes)
6. @Mage
7. ookla the lowercase (Sart) - Feruchemist
8. Ookla the Paranormal (Archer) - Brawnze - Allomancer
9. @Kasimir - Kiril Jerzy

 

[Szeth_Pancakes]

I’m just going to operate under the assumption now that Feruchemists don’t have extra lives, but Allomancers do.

[Araris Valerian]

1 hour ago, Ookla the Confused said:

I’m just going to operate under the assumption now that Feruchemists don’t have extra lives, but Allomancers do.

So you think Kas/Mage are the remaining elims? That's pretty much your only option.

[Szeth_Pancakes]

8 minutes ago, Ookla the Porched said:

So you think Kas/Mage are the remaining elims? That's pretty much your only option.

What about Tani and Danex?

[Araris Valerian]

Just now, Ookla the Confused said:

What about Tani and Danex?

They both had an extra life. Feruchemists are all eliminators.

[Kasimir]

I'm claiming the attack on Tani. As I mentioned last Night, I had excluded Illwei and Araris for the vote on Sart, and Szeth for the previously-mentioned reasons. This left me with an <Archer, Danex, Tani, Mage> pool. I didn't have enough time to think things through but I ruled out Danex after further thought - I didn't like how Sart had seized on Danex after Danex seemed genuinely in danger. Then I RNGed among <Archer, Tani, and Mage>. RNGesus picked Tani so I just rolled with it. Since there was a decent chance I might go low activity, I figured I should put the order in while I still could.

14 minutes ago, Ookla the Confused said:

I’m just going to operate under the assumption now that Feruchemists don’t have extra lives, but Allomancers do.

I'm working with that assumption for the moment too. I think it makes sense in light of the fact that this is blackout, and we don't know the roles of the slain. That being said, I think if the Elims have cottoned on to this, they will have incentive to start claiming extra lives. And as Maili pointed out before, the nice thing about claiming Thug is that the only way it's proven you're not a Thug is the situation in which you're too dead to care. I think kills also tend to be easy to claim, since there's no functional distinction between Elim kills and Village kills, but if everyone Village-side (or almost everyone Village-side is a Thug, then kills are functionally Seeks.)

Here's a quick look at the votes since I have a pocket of time:

Day One

Spoiler

This is the first notable part of the game. It's under five hours from game start, and already, Sart is drastically leading the votes.

Sart (3): Kas<1>, Araris<1>, Archer<1>
Mage (1): Ilwei<1>

We now know that Archer and Illwei are Village, but I think Araris looks a bit okay from this. It's very early on so it's not impossible Evil Araris could've stuck a distancing vote on Sart, but I feel like he had no reason to be the second voter on Sart, and he just had better targets anyway.

Szeth starts another train. From the perspective of pure vote analysis, we want to take note of this, because the Archer train eventually became the competitor train to the Sart train. 

Sart (3): Kas<1>, Araris<1>, Archer<1>
Mage (1): Ilwei<1>
Archer (2): Szeth, Sart<1>

This one is an interesting move. Sart has a chance to throw onto the Mage train: the trains are exactly identical in size at this point in time, but he chooses the Archer countertrain. Unlikely to band with a fellow Elim, I think, not this early, and not when looking for a countertrain. Might be worth looking at Mage.

Illwei swaps to the Archer train, tying it against Sart. We now know that this was Village-on-Village action, so likely there was little other Elim action on the main train. (Note that if I were Elim, it'd be easy for me to have swapped off Sart and onto someone else without causing too much suspicion - especially since Illwei's move does reduce pressure on Sart by creating another viable main train.) Recall that Sart did not have an extra life.

Sart (3): Kas<1>, Araris<1>, Archer<1>
Mage (0): Ilwei<1>
Archer (3): Szeth, Sart<1>, Ilwei<2>

Archer pushes back against Szeth, while Danex piles on.

Sart (2): Kas<1>, Araris<1>, Archer<1>
Mage (0): Ilwei<1>
Szeth (1): Archer<2>
Archer (4): Szeth, Sart<1>, Ilwei<2>, Danex

This puts Archer 4-2 in the lead, just as Danex adds an additional vote. I still don't like that vote. I know Danex said it was a joke and he forgot, but situationally, things were tight for Sart (though a tie is not as bad as being the lead train.) Archer removes his vote from Sart and seven minutes later, Danex stacks a vote onto Archer. While the vote is somewhat protective of Sart, I feel that it's such a blatant vote that if an Elim had seen Sart was no longer in active danger due to Archer's swap, they are not as likely to have exposed themselves. There was no more pressure there.

Then, Araris swaps to Illwei:

Sart (0): Kas<1>, Araris<1>, Archer<1>
Mage (1): Ilwei<1>, Sart<2>
Szeth (1): Archer<2>
Archer (3): Szeth, Sart<1>, Ilwei<2>, Danex
Illwei (1): Araris<2>
Danex (1): Kas<2>

Meanwhile, Sart realises he does not actually want to get caught on a bad train and backs off and jumps onto Mage. I decide I don't like Danex's vote and go after Danex instead. Here's my problem at this stage: as of this point, our main vote movements are from Archer, Araris, Illwei, and Sart. Szeth's vote is relatively stable, as is Danex's, and moreover, Archer and Illwei are now known to be Village, Araris and Szeth are suspected to be Village, as is Danex. I certainly know I'm a Thug, and note that I was the one to prod Illwei and Archer about it N1 and D2 - I could be lying but that would require knowledge of the secondary power combination.

Granting me that assumption: who are the Elims? Where are the Elims hiding? Why do we only see movement from Sart at this juncture? One plausible reason is that only Sart was really under threat anyway, and at that point in time, the Village had more or less self-resolved the situation. The fact Sart immediately wanted to get off Archer and Szeth and Danex stayed put does make me think better of them.

Finally, Mage comes under fire for a bit:

Sart (0): Kas<1>, Araris<1>, Archer<1>
Mage (2): Ilwei<1>, Sart<2>, Archer<3>
Szeth (0): Archer<2>
Archer (3): Szeth, Sart<1>, Ilwei<2>, Danex
Illwei (1): Araris<2>
Danex (1): Kas<2>

Archer swaps off Szeth onto Mage, and later tries to swap back onto Illwei to see if he can coax me to switch. In an act of supreme apathy, I don't take it.

Sart (0): Kas<1>, Araris<1>, Archer<1>
Mage (1): Ilwei<1>, Sart<2>, Archer<3>
Szeth (0): Archer<2>
Archer (3): Szeth, Sart<1>, Ilwei<2>, Danex
Illwei (2): Araris<2>, Archer<4>
Danex (1): Kas<2>

Archer gets executed.

My main conclusion for D1 is that just going off the votes, it strikes me that of all our active votes, we have four main unknowns: Szeth, Araris, myself, Danex. I'll come back to this again later. The point is that Archer's and Illwei's flips are actually pretty helpful in clearing up our D1 picture.

Day Two

Spoiler

Archer immediately claims the Danex strike and goes for Danex. Tani follows suit. It's couched as a poke vote but it's a fast follow-up, almost opportunistic as well.

D2 votes tend to be even slower and more stagnant, though.

Danex (2): Archer<1>, Tani<1>
Archer (1): Szeth

Szeth immediately goes for Archer. Meanwhile, I decide to stack some pressure on Tani. Araris pushes the first vote on Sart.

Danex (2): Archer<1>, Tani<1>
Archer (0): Szeth<1>
Tani (1): Kas<1>
Sart (1): Araris<1>
Araris (1): Szeth<2>

Szeth goes off Archer and onto Araris, possibly in response to Araris's post. I think the context is unclear, in retrospect. I complain about there being no real vote investment beyond Szeth, and worry that this means something is off about the Danex train, and then swap to Araris for a few hot minutes. After which I get unnerved by seeing Mage read the thread but say nothing and decide to vote Mage instead.

Mage does show up (thank you) and votes Archer. Archer votes Mage.

Danex (1): Archer<1>, Tani<1>
Archer (1): Szeth<1>, Mage
Tani (0): Kas<1>
Sart (1): Araris<1>
Araris (1): Szeth<2>, Kas<2>
Mage (2): Kas<3>, Archer<2>

Note that at this point, Mage is the lead train.

Sart comes in and votes on Szeth. This is a big self-pwn, in my view, because Szeth was a consensus Village read, and in fact, it was so kayana I took one look at that read and said "This is so nuts it can't be an Elim, no Elim would be this kayana." (Telling people that you don't think the consensus Village read is Village and that they should be lynched is pretty nuts. Doing it on the basis of pure role-based reasoning is even more nuts.) It's also what got Illwei on the Sart train. So let's take stock:

Was this a train dilution strategy? Here's a reason to think it's not: Szeth was the consensus Village read. It seems unlikely that anyone with their finger on the pulse of the game might have failed to notice players repeatedly say they read Szeth as Village and would thus be unlikely or unwilling to vote for Szeth. In that light, this would suggest that Sart didn't care and was just looking for a safe place to stash his vote. 

But more on this later as I'm kind of tired of getting ninjaed by thread posts.

Danex (1): Archer<1>, Tani<1>
Archer (1): Szeth<1>, Mage
Tani (0): Kas<1>
Sart (2): Araris<1>, Illwei
Araris (1): Szeth<2>, Kas<2>
Mage (2): Kas<3>, Archer<2>

Tani hops off the Danex train. It's interesting because it does nothing: she has the opportunity to interfere with the state of affairs but chooses not to. This could be because it would be too much of a risk, or because both Mage and Sart were Elims. Still.

And that's it:

Danex (0): Archer<1>, Tani<1>
Archer (1): Szeth<1>, Mage
Tani (0): Kas<1>
Sart (2): Araris<1>, Illwei
Araris (1): Szeth<2>, Kas<2>
Mage (2): Kas<3>, Archer<2>

How this affects the state of my reads for the moment:

Likely Village:

• Araris - has overtaken Szeth because voting behaviour through both cycles suggests a Villager searching to secure consensus lynches and who has played a role in lynching an Elim. 
• Szeth - tunnel on Archer makes no sense strategically for an Elim, voting behaviour sending more mixed signals than Araris.

???:

• Danex
• Tani

Both have survived one hit, so are Thugs. Feruchemists may very well have Thug-like abilities as this game only reveals alignment rather than role. So I take that as weak, defeasible reason to think they're Village. Tani's seeming apathy towards the Sart-Mage tie is a weak suggestion she might be Village. Ditto for Danex's apathy to being on the Archer train.

Just by dint of whoever's left, this points me to Mage.

I feel like my reads have to be wrong somewhere because this is an awfully dismal pool but there you go.