Long Game 82: Secrets Written in Metal

[Quivil]

VC: @ookla the quantificational

Mage(2): Szeth, Danex

Danex(4): Kas, Tani, Mage, Araris

[Mat]

51 minutes ago, Ookla of Anarchy and Chaos said:

@Ookla the Pianist Does the NK go first or does the coinshot go first or are they simultaneus? Do we get to know?

All kills happen simultaneously.

45 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Ookla the Pianist - What happens if the last Villager standing has a one-shot vig kill, it's night, and there's one Elim remaining? Assume for the same of this case that both of them are down to one life.

I’m PAFOing this.

28 minutes ago, ookla the quantificational said:

@Ookla the Pianist can i get a VC?

Tani is correct.

[Kasimir]

4 minutes ago, Ookla the Pianist said:

All kills happen simultaneously.

I’m PAFOing this.

Tani is correct.

Is this the first time you've had to deliver a clarification on the rules this game. Should we make your life harder  

[Quivil]

Just now, Kasimir said:

Is this the first time you've had to deliver a clarification on the rules this game. Should we make your life harder  

Why would you want to give Matrim more trolling opportunities?

[Kasimir]

2 minutes ago, Ookla of Anarchy and Chaos said:

Why would you want to give Matrim more trolling opportunities?

We have to let the GM have some fun.

He hasn't even had to deal with any last minute vote shenanigans or players changing orders nearly five times in the last two minutes of the cycle! (I remember you, Bridgeboy >>) Are we really allowing him to have the true fun of GMing if we don't at least let him troll?

[Quivil]

11 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

We have to let the GM have some fun.

Do we, really?

11 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

He hasn't even had to deal with any last minute vote shenanigans or players changing orders nearly five times in the last two minutes of the cycle! (I remember you, Bridgeboy >>) Are we really allowing him to have the true fun of GMing if we don't at least let him troll?

... that sounds more like STRESS than FUN

Edited December 8, 2021 by Ookla of Anarchy and Chaos

[Kasimir]

Just now, Ookla of Anarchy and Chaos said:

Do we, really?

@Ookla the Pianist, what's your view on this issue?

[Quivil]

21 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Ookla the Pianist, what's your view on this issue?

Oh, what mayhem has been wrought this day.

Edited December 8, 2021 by Ookla of Anarchy and Chaos

[Mat]

15 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Ookla the Pianist, what's your view on this issue?

I think that the GM ought to have some fun when running the game, or else they may never do it again.

In this case watching the game suffices for me  But if you have actual questions I’d be happy to answer them.

[Kasimir]

36 minutes ago, Ookla the Pianist said:

I think that the GM ought to have some fun when running the game, or else they may never do it again.

In this case watching the game suffices for me  But if you have actual questions I’d be happy to answer them.

Thank u for helping to keep the thread alive Mr GM Sir.

Have a Wormmon for your hard work.

Spoiler

 

[danex]

hmmm well

i seem to be in a bit of a bind

i propose we go back to the idea of "all village thugs, all elims not"

cuz then im conf-vil

alternate proposal

i have a kill i havent used 

dont kill me, and ill use on whomever the majority decides on

[Szeth_Pancakes]

38 minutes ago, ookla the quantificational said:

i propose we go back to the idea of "all village thugs, all elims not"

I thought we were still there (at least, I was)

[danex]

Just now, Ookla the Confused said:

I thought we were still there (at least, I was)

well, we are

but judging by the VC the majority of everyone else seems to disagree 

 

[Kasimir]

21 minutes ago, ookla the quantificational said:

hmmm well

i seem to be in a bit of a bind

i propose we go back to the idea of "all village thugs, all elims not"

cuz then im conf-vil

alternate proposal

i have a kill i havent used 

dont kill me, and ill use on whomever the majority decides on

Here's the problem.

Archer claimed a kill. I had one. Tani claims one. Illwei seems to have used one. You are claiming a kill as well.

Szeth claims not to have a kill. I don't recall Mage or Araris making a claim. Sart claimed one but we have no idea about what's going on with Sart.

Minimally, this commits us to five out of nine players having kills, assuming you and Tani are telling the truth. I certainly am insofar as that there is no counterclaim for the Tani kill/attack. The more I think about it, the more I don't buy that we have at least five kills floating around and the Elims have no extra lives or protections at all. The GM has to balance for potentially swingy situations.

Suppose we all got trigger-happy N1. If all the Elims were like Sart, with only one life, we could have ended up with an Elim team wipe or near-extinction D1. This is exacerbated by the presence of protective Village Thug lives (everyone's claimed one, though to be fair, the Elims would do so too, as we saw Sart lied.) If Szeth, Mage, and Araris actually do have kills, this makes the situation even worse and practically demands at least one Elim Thug for the purposes of balancing.

I don't really buy that idea. It doesn't work.

I am a bit more willing to buy that only Villagers have kills but at the same time, we can't really prove a particular kill was the vig kill and not the Elim kill. And even that assumption is a bit of a stretch IMO, as much as I toy with it since it could potentially help us clear others.

We haven't seen signs of vote manip so far but I do worry we're poised for a hammer. But I'm paranoid I guess.

It's an interesting offer. If we're 3-2 and everyone else is a Thug, and you're Evil, and you really have that spare kill, then letting you use that kill tonight loses us the game, because we have Tani who is on one life (and unlikely to be Evil), the Elim kill, and your kill. Unless we lynch one of the Elims today (whether by knocking off a spare life or otherwise), we go into the Night with two Villagers on one life each. Easy targets for a kill to go through. (Again, unless someone has a protect. Which, you know, if you've been saving it, maybe consider whipping it out...)

Of course, if you're Village, then it's really important we don't lynch you today. But we're kind of nearing the end of the line where it comes to having space to FAFO. But this means that for me in evaluating this, I have to go back to my priors. As my priors stand, it's at least one (if not both) of <you, Mage>. I could re-evaluate them, but re-evaluating them leads me into even more confusion because I have to postulate weird stuff like Araris being on a busing spree and not being able to swap off Sart because the only other real options for him were Mage and himself and he couldn't very well stack on Szeth or Archer after what he said about them.

I'd like to hear everyone else's thoughts on this offer, especially because I've spent most of today questioning my reads again and again even though I'm trying not to go back and retread old circles of thought.

@Ookla the Pianist Are protects and Thug lives written up the same way? I will not take your response as confirmation protects exist in this game.

[Mat]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Ookla the Pianist Are protects and Thug lives written up the same way? I will not take your response as confirmation protects exist in this game.

I would write any form of survival in the same way, yes. A roleblock wouldn't show up at all though (which is normal, but I've felt the need to clarify this ever since I messed this up when I ran my first game :P)

This is not a confirmation that protects, roleblocks, or any role or ability at all is in the game, etc, etc, blah blah blah. Thanks.

[Araris Valerian]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

I'd like to hear everyone else's thoughts on this offer, especially because I've spent most of today questioning my reads again and again even though I'm trying not to go back and retread old circles of thought.

So if Danex is elim, and Mage is elim, then this works out well, we just shift over to Mage, and we should be able to determine that the only elim kill was the faction kill, which will lead us to vote out Danex. Village win.

If Danex is elim, and Mage is village, and we vote off Mage, then there are a lot of ifs. We don't know whether Tani and Danex are telling the truth about having an extra kill, or if Szeth is being honest about not having one. During the night we'd be 3-2, and could lose if the elims have double-kill potential. 

If Danex is village, and Mage is elim, then this works out well, since we vote out Mage, and then Danex can either kill Tani or knock an extra life off of our next suspect.

If both Danex and Mage are village, and we vote off Mage, then we still get to have the Danex kill, but will probably go into the next day at 2-2.

So the outcomes here are actually less dependent on Danex's alignment then they are on Mage's (and only because I put Mage as the default other option). We could replace Mage with Tani, and that would make option 2 a bit less risky I think, but things would overall look the same. If we voted for Szeth or Kas, and that person has an extra life, then we'd still be up 4-2 during the night, but our odds of winning would also still depend on whether the elims have double-kill potential.

So, basically it's risky. And because I'm more suspicious of Danex than I am of Mage (and I don't think they are e/e), I'm opposed to taking up the offer. Maybe someone can work though all the possible truth claims and convince me otherwise. But I doubt it.

[Quivil]

2 hours ago, ookla the quantificational said:

alternate proposal

i have a kill i havent used 

dont kill me, and ill use on whomever the majority decides on

And what if you don't use it on whomever we decide?

What if it's you we want you to kill?

What guarantee do we have that you'll actually do it?

Why is this a good option for the village?

 

I tried something like this once. It didn't work out.

[Szeth_Pancakes]

@ookla the quantificational you should use your kill on Mage, if you get exed.

it fits with our thug theory

[danex]

57 minutes ago, Ookla the Confused said:

@ookla the quantificational you should use your kill on Mage, if you get exed.

it fits with our thug theory

if i get exed

then im dead

soooooooooo not sure what youre thinking here

[Szeth_Pancakes]

Just now, ookla the quantificational said:

if i get exed

then im dead

soooooooooo not sure what youre thinking here

All kills happen simultaneously. If you use your kill on Mage if you know you’re going to be exed, then both of you will die.

[danex]

3 minutes ago, Ookla the Confused said:

All kills happen simultaneously. If you use your kill on Mage if you know you’re going to be exed, then both of you will die.

ooh

thungs can only use their kill on a night turn

of at least thats what my gm pm says

so either you forgot

or youre not a thug

which means youre likely an elim

hmmmmmm

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Edited December 8, 2021 by ookla the quantificational

[Szeth_Pancakes]

42 minutes ago, ookla the quantificational said:

ooh

thungs can only use their kill on a night turn

of at least thats what my gm pm says

so either you forgot

or youre not a thug

which means youre likely an elim

hmmmmmm

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Oh I forgot

whoops

please don’t exe me

[Quivil]

Szeth

 

 

edit:

jk

I'm moving to Mage. Danex looks slightly less elim to me now

Edited December 9, 2021 by Ookla of Anarchy and Chaos

[Szeth_Pancakes]

2 hours ago, Ookla of Anarchy and Chaos said:

Szeth

 

 

edit:

jk

I'm moving to Mage. Danex looks slightly less elim to me now

bruh

[Kasimir]

11 hours ago, Ookla the Confused said:

Oh I forgot

whoops

please don’t exe me

Didn't you say your secondary power is not a kill? So how can you forget if you shouldn't have known anyway?