Long Game 43: Under the Banner of Adonalsium

[The Young Pyromancer]

Seonid said at some point it is 3.

[DeTess]

51 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Wait, we know how many charges need to be taken from a Shard to release it? Since when? 

32 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

Seonid said at some point it is 3.

 

[The Young Pyromancer]

Thanks.

[Steeldancer]

I can only be on for a few minutes, but I do want to mention something that's really really been irking me. I've said literally nothing useful, and because of that I'm not on anyone's radar. And that is the absolute anithesis of my usual playstyle. I keep looking at your reads and not seeing my name and being strangely offended it's my own fault becuase I'm focusing more on RP this game. But to assauge my conscience, I'll try and do some actual analysis tomorrow. Also, the only person who I'm even slightly suspicious of is Pyromancer , but I don't particularly want him lynched as he's a first time player. But I don't really have anything else at the moment. 

[Arinian]

Voting for No lynch.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

3 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Given our proud tradition of not lynching new players on turn 1, and to give me more time to watch Pyromancer's playstyle, I'm going to switch my vote back to Magestar. Although an admittedly superficial analysis, he's voting on Fifth for focusing on Odium whilst having more posts mentioning Odium himself, and indeed the most posts mentioning Odium of any player in the game. 

To add to this, Fifth now has nine posts in which he references Odium, with nine referencing Hoid and/or Khriss, and eight referencing other Shards. Mage, on the other hand, has nine posts in which Odium is mentioned, with two mentioning Hoid and/or Khriss, and four mentioning other Shards. Given the above, Mage's vote on Fifth for focusing on Odium seems deeply hypocritical. With the general tone I found from his earlier posts, I'm quite happy to keep my vote on Mage.

[Magestar]

7 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

@Magestar, pointing out the IKYK seems like casting unnecessary suspicion on Fifth. Were he really Odium, pointing all this out because Odium wouldn't really spend so much time on Odium, it would remain counterproductive. Regardless of how we judge it, he's brought a significantly increased level of attention on himself.

How?  I always try to point out IKYK's when I find them.  Knowing how far a play will go into an IKYK is an important part of getting a read on them.  However, I totally agree that Fifth has brought a bit of attention onto himself.

5 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

@MagestarYeah, the issue with my defense is that it unfortunately goes deep into IKYK. But honestly, how else am I supposed to defend myself? I can’t plead innocence, since I’ve already told the thread that I tried to take a charge of Odium’s Investiture. On the count that I seem to be focusing a lot on Odium, this is true, but a lot of it was just some heavy initial commentary that came from my mind being on the failed theft of Investiture, and then people started grilling me for questions about him, so I began to talk more. 

No, I get it.  You should just know that it's not exactly a great defense.  I personally am not sure that you're Odium, but what happens happens.  If you are, I do suggest you either pass it before you convert or put it back.  Although putting it back feels like it has a slightly higher possibility of the wrong people getting it then giving it to someone you trust.  This is for whoever has Odium, honestly.

4 hours ago, Young Bard said:

I'm making a mental note to look over a couple of Mage's posts - they felt weird but I can't place why (sorry Mage, I hate when someone says that about my posts - ping me to elaborate on this when I have fresh eyes if I've forgotten.)

Take your time.   I'm fairly confident that you'll find they look fairly normal for me, but I'm always being told my posts look odd.  I've been kinda busy lately, while trying to stay active, so a lot of these posts have been thrown together on the fly, or in pieces over a bit of time.  That might explain some of the oddness, but IDK.

3 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Given our proud tradition of not lynching new players on turn 1, and to give me more time to watch Pyromancer's playstyle, I'm going to switch my vote back to Magestar. Although an admittedly superficial analysis, he's voting on Fifth for focusing on Odium whilst having more posts mentioning Odium himself, and indeed the most posts mentioning Odium of any player in the game. 

Er.  No...  I haven't voted on Fifth.  Vote tally from LL:

3 hours ago, livinglegend said:

Devotary (1): Elbereth

Pyromancer (1): Orlock

Scholar (1): Pyromancer

Bard (1): Scholar

Drought (1): Bard

And while I may have a lot of posts revolving around Odium, they're all basically saying the same thing;  Odium isn't necessarily our biggest problem.  I've said that across both threads, and it echoes my thoughts from the previous Shard game.  People just can't seem to remember that Odium isn't necessarily anti-village, as annoying as he might be.

3 hours ago, randuir said:

Hey Guys, I'm back! I'm also very tired, and this is quite a bit of thread to go through. There's a couple of posts I want to comment on right now, but I don't have enough time to form solid enough reads to start voting this cycle.

Why? and why? I've seen two people admit to taking from Odium, so there only has to be one more for Odium to be released, so there's no indication of a massed rush on Odium. And why would Khriss be more likely to take from Ruin in particular instead of Odium?

I wasn't aware Odium's win-con was already known. Though it's reasonable to assume that Odium could be some kind of serial-killer, he could also just have orders to shatter all Shards, which is a win-con that is compatible with any of the other factions.

Now, people have also talked about Odium shattering cultivation, and Ruin breaking Silverlight as if these where bad outcomes. First of all, the village is the only faction with a sudden-death win-con that can be completed while any or all shards are shattered. Secondly, forcing everyone out of Silverlight will actually improve communication, as it means the world-docs will all start seeing use. It will also become easier to determine who might have taken a Shard, though that's a very double-edge sword.

The down-side to these two actions is that the shard-holder risk getting taken over by their win-con, which might be bad for the village.

OH MY GOSH.  IT'S A WELL THOUGHT OUT POST I DON'T HAVE ANY PROBLEMS WITH!  WONDERFUL!

Seriously though, I agree with absolutely everything Rand is saying here.

8 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

To add to this, Fifth now has nine posts in which he references Odium, with nine referencing Hoid and/or Khriss, and eight referencing other Shards. Mage, on the other hand, has nine posts in which Odium is mentioned, with two mentioning Hoid and/or Khriss, and four mentioning other Shards. Given the above, Mage's vote on Fifth for focusing on Odium seems deeply hypocritical. With the general tone I found from his earlier posts, I'm quite happy to keep my vote on Mage.

Still didn't vote on Fifth.  At least, if I did, not only did I not intend to, I've apparently forgotten, and I can't find where I did.

[Elbereth]

9 hours ago, Magestar said:

Elbereth seems to be acting differently, but it seems pretty NAI.  Her posts seem more aggressive, as far as discussion goes, and pushing responses and discussion more than an Elim would, but that gets into IKYKs.  Other than that I'm not really reading her as Elim, just as a villager who's trying to push people in order to get reads on them.

I definitely have been more aggressive this game than I remember being. That said, the last time I played, didn’t go inactive, and wasn’t neutral, was arguably QF22, a year ago. Even if you go by most recent game, I’ve grown a lot since LG39. So I’m not surprised my playstyle’s changed, and I’m happy with the change thus far. 

2 hours ago, randuir said:

Hey Guys, I'm back! I'm also very tired, and this is quite a bit of thread to go through. There's a couple of posts I want to comment on right now, but I don't have enough time to form solid enough reads to start voting this cycle.

Why? and why? I've seen two people admit to taking from Odium, so there only has to be one more for Odium to be released, so there's no indication of a massed rush on Odium. And why would Khriss be more likely to take from Ruin in particular instead of Odium?

I wasn't aware Odium's win-con was already known. Though it's reasonable to assume that Odium could be some kind of serial-killer, he could also just have orders to shatter all Shards, which is a win-con that is compatible with any of the other factions.

Now, people have also talked about Odium shattering cultivation, and Ruin breaking Silverlight as if these where bad outcomes. First of all, the village is the only faction with a sudden-death win-con that can be completed while any or all shards are shattered. Secondly, forcing everyone out of Silverlight will actually improve communication, as it means the world-docs will all start seeing use. It will also become easier to determine who might have taken a Shard, though that's a very double-edge sword.

The down-side to these two actions is that the shard-holder risk getting taken over by their win-con, which might be bad for the village.

I’m just going to point at this post because it’s says a lot of useful things I hadn’t thought about. Had I not entirely missed them myself, I’d be suspicious of people saying that Odium is a problem. It honestly makes far more sense that their win condition would be to shatter all Shards, since that’s far easier than a SK win condition. It’s also an excellent point that shattering Shards doesn’t directly harm the 17th Shard. 

2 hours ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

I didn't intend that.  It is just that Hoid and Khriss have no kill roles, Hoid can't kill, and killing in this game without a contained Odium is hard.  However, Odium can kill.

I am specifically trying to be hard to read.  Also, I am sick and trapped at home, so I am bored out of my mind.

See above.

This. 

 

Why are you trying to be hard to read? Who does that benefit?

Would like to say more, but I’m about to fly home, so Ilol be back either tonight or tomorrow morning. 

[Straw]

Hmm. I think that Magestar and Pyromancer are both suspicious, but I’d rather not lynch a new player on D1. Magestar for now.

[Magestar]

8 minutes ago, Straw said:

Hmm. I think that Magestar and Pyromancer are both suspicious, but I’d rather not lynch a new player on D1. Magestar for now.

But why do you think I'm suspicious?  Could you explain that to me?

edit;

24 minutes ago, Arinian said:

Voting for No lynch.

Ooo.  Is this a thing we can do, @Seonid?  I'd rather do this than lynch Pyro, although I could maybe see a Drought lynch.  Slightly suspicious of Drought, mostly gut.

Edited March 18, 2018 by Magestar

[Fifth Scholar]

Ah, thank you, Randuir. For some reason I missed that. That’s rather important info. Okay. 

In other news, I am much more comfortable about Bard after his most recent post. However, I’m curious about him on two counts, which he can respond to whenever (as judging from the timing of his post he’s likely asleep):

1) Why did you want to keep Shards in containment? Other than our sudden death win con, it serves little benefit, and spreading out village Investiture grabs would essentially let Hoid and Khriss decide which Shards got released, which I don’t see as a good thing. Were you just hopeful we could get our sudden death win con? Or did you have other motives?

2) I understand you’re trying to be vague about it, but the whole section of “I won’t confirm or deny rumors about me having a Shard” is... well, vague and IKYK-y, which doesn’t really help the village and kind of just feeds the rumors that you have a Shard. I understand if you don’t want to be more specific, but I would appreciate it  . 

However, I agree with most of your other points, specifically Elbereth being village. It seemed kind of weird that people were trying to lynch her for a simple mistake, in my opinion, so I’ll be looking more closely at those who were voting for her. 

But for your suspicion of Drought, I looked back, and you’re right, he hasn’t said much. Hmm. I’m not sure it merits a vote, but he should definitely contribute more, as you’re correct about him blending into the shadows a bit. 

I’m with Mage on this one, Straw. Why are you voting on him for basically no reason?

Orlok, I don’t try to bring attention onto myself. I think it just happens because I can’t help myself, and post a lot. 

[Orlok Tsubodai]

10 hours ago, Magestar said:

Oddly, I'm suspicious of both 5th and Pyro.  I'm unsure why 5th is so fascinated with Odium, and Pyro is just all over the place.  Honestly having difficulty reading Pyro.

Hmmm.  Why though? 

Also, @Fifth Scholar, if you can't quote across tabs, there are actually unkeyed quote boxes that you can just add to your posts.  You can paste into them, and it means you don't have to just color everything.

I think you can do that on mobile too?  I'm not sure.

Elbereth seems to be acting differently, but it seems pretty NAI.  Her posts seem more aggressive, as far as discussion goes, and pushing responses and discussion more than an Elim would, but that gets into IKYKs.  Other than that I'm not really reading her as Elim, just as a villager who's trying to push people in order to get reads on them.

Speaking of IKYKs, though:

Wow.  IKYK alert.

I actually agree with most of this.  It does, to me, seem statistically more likely to me that Odium is in village hands, and honestly I'm not super worried about Odium either.  5th's posts seem a bit off, and I'm really not suspicious Bard at all (I was more suspicious of them last game, actually, although that doesn't really mean anything.) but I'm equally suspicious of Pyro, mostly on gut.  And all of the points 5th makes here seem pretty solid.  I'm sure I had more to say but I'm forgetting what it was now...  I might get back to this later.

I don't think Philepe De Pedro Von Leiderhuch Johnson III has said anything so I'm going to take my vote off of Philepe De Pedro Von Leiderhuch Johnson III.  Instead I'll @shanerockes in the hopes that they take a look at the thread.

Other than that I'd like to say I'm pretty happy with the level of discussion, given the fact that people could definitely have felt like the wind was taken out of their sails from the cycle rebooting.  Also I'm really tired and looking over this post it doesn't seem super cohesive so... forgive me for rambling a bit.  

@Magestar, my apologies. I'd apparently read this post earlier, and misremembered a post going along with it. Despite the lack of a vote, my point stands to a lesser degree, I believe. You cast suspicion on Fifth when you'd had a greater number of posts, and significantly greater percentage of posts mentioning Odium than he had.

[Arinian]

10 minutes ago, Magestar said:

Ooo.  Is this a thing we can do, @Seonid?  I'd rather do this than lynch Pyro, although I could maybe see a Drought lynch.  Slightly suspicious of Drought, mostly gut.

Yes if I understand right:

17 hours ago, Seonid said:

Ties will result in a no-lynch. 2-vote minimum. If a plurality votes no-lynch, no lynch will occur.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

On reflection, without the vote, I don’t think my analysis of the disparity between Magestar’s suspicion of Fifth and his own actions warrants a vote, and much less his being lynched. As such, Magestar.

More generally, the other main point my analysis turned up is how little discussion there’s been on Hoid and Khriss this cycle. My analysis measures the number of posts in which Hoid, Khriss, and/or Shards are mentioned, with one count per entity per post (so multiple mentions of Hoid in a post add only one to the tally), but mentions of different entities in a post adding one to each entity.

This turns up that only 36% of mentions as of right now are of Hoid and Khriss. Odium has more posts in which it is mentioned, at 59, than Hoid and Khriss combined (at 20 and 37 respectively). Illustrated well by Rand’s excellent post, we should be much more worried about Hoid and Khriss at the moment than about the Shards, yet out focus appears to be in completely the wrong place.

[Seonid]

27 minutes ago, Magestar said:

Ooo.  Is this a thing we can do, @Seonid?  I'd rather do this than lynch Pyro, although I could maybe see a Drought lynch.  Slightly suspicious of Drought, mostly gut.

Voting for no lynch is definitely a thing you can do

[Straw]

@Magestar I voted on you because I think you’re Odium, however, if you’ll tell me what Shard you took investiture from, I’ll be happy to take my vote off you.

[Megasif]

Phew finally all caught and haven't seen my name mentioned anywhere so far 

Thoughts on lynch discussion that I missed:

We can't just say there's such and such a chancs of lynching an elim because, although having more elims increases the chance of lynching them, our voting is not random or isn't supposed to be random. We're trying to figure who it is we should lynch so the the chance doesn't really apply in the raw sense.

Lynch is the main weapon of the village. There's other mechanics, especially this game, but the lynch gives us the most public information which is beneficial to the village overall. We can try to see vote changes and agendas in voting and pushing certain people.

 

As for the lynch itself, I don't really have good idea on whom to vote but I didn't like (alignment-wise btw) Orlok giving Mage heat for his suspicions on fifth. It's an easy method to become suspicious of someone without much backlash. As it seemingly aplears to defend someone and naturally puts the other party in a bad light. Now Mage could totally be an elim here and Orlok could be village being genuine. But I doubt Orlok wpuld use the 'no. of times odium is mentioned' read for his push. Either way, not fond of the reason for votes on mage atm.

-----------------

Just seen Orlok's retraction.

----------------

To carry on, the only thing that pinged me, kinda sorta, was livinglegend's post. It's easing into the thread un-noticed almost and appears to contribute to the health of the village. LivingLegend.

@livinglegend In case LL comes on and I can't retract then hopefully we have anothet lynch going guys.

[The Young Pyromancer]

Ok, then Fifth Scholar.  Wait.  Are we just going with a no lynch?  Isn't that bad?

Magestar, I read somewhere that it is a good idea to be hard to read when you are good and when you are evil.  That way you purposely making it hard to read you isn't a giveaway that you are evil.  I am going to PM someone, probably using RNG, and trust them.  Then, I am going to ask them for advice.  That is literally my plan.  I am under suspicion day 1, and apparently my theory of being hard-to-read isn't working.  I just need a cycle or two to PM someone and ask their advice.  Question my playstyle all you want then.

[Megasif]

Still around for another 2 hours btw.

In regards to hoid and khriss, I can't recall it being mentioned anywhere that they are indeed enemies to one another as well. So they will be actively trying to get rid of the other one at 'most' chances they get. But this will probably be later as they are helping each other dwindle the village at the moment. When the number are a bit lower, they will probably go all out on each other. Hmm.

(Also damnation phonesposting)

Edited March 18, 2018 by Megasif
Missing words and wrong letters

[DrakeMarshall]

52 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

nine posts in which he references Odium

Nine is Odium’s number!  Coincidence?

(I’ll probably have a more intelligent response to all this in a few, bit busy at the moment)

47 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

It honestly makes far more sense that their win condition would be to shatter all Shards, since that’s far easier than a SK win condition. It’s also an excellent point that shattering Shards doesn’t directly harm the 17th Shard.

Agreed, for the most part. But it occurs to me that shattering all the shards might harm the village if meeting this condition ended the game. ( @Seonid can corrupted vessels result in new end-of-game conditions?)

[Seonid]

3 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

Agreed, for the most part. But it occurs to me that shattering all the shards might harm the village if meeting this condition ended the game. ( @Seonid can corrupted vessels result in new end-of-game conditions?)

It is possible for a shard's win condition to cause new end of game conditions

[Orlok Tsubodai]

7 minutes ago, Megasif said:

As for the lynch itself, I don't really have good idea on whom to vote but I didn't like (alignment-wise btw) Orlok giving Mage heat for his suspicions on fifth. It's an easy method to become suspicious of someone without much backlash. As it seemingly aplears to defend someone and naturally puts the other party in a bad light. Now Mage could totally be an elim here and Orlok could be village being genuine. But I doubt Orlok wpuld use the 'no. of times odium is mentioned' read for his push. Either way, not fond of the reason for votes on mage atm.

To be clear, I wasn’t trying to defend Fifth, who may well be suspicious in his own right. My point was to highlight that Mage had drawn suspicion to Fifth on grounds of his focus on Odium, whilst having a significantly greater focus himself. I was asserting that the hypocrisy was suspicious, as opposed to the attack on Fifth in and of itself.

[The Young Pyromancer]

The problem is, if we support Odium, we make enemies of every other shard.  This could turn the game into vanillas + Odium VS Hoid, Khriss, their converts, and every single other shard.  We would drastically increase the size of the elim team.  Sure, they wouldn't have a doc, but they would have Cultivation.

[Megasif]

1 minute ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

To be clear, I wasn’t trying to defend Fifth, who may well be suspicious in his own right. My point was to highlight that Mage had drawn suspicion to Fifth on grounds of his focus on Odium, whilst having a significantly greater focus himself. I was asserting that the hypocrisy was suspicious, as opposed to the attack on Fifth in and of itself.

I see. Thanks for the clarification. Your previous post did already allay most of my concerns regarding you but I omitted it from the post somehow. I think I just wanted the post finished.

I would like thoughts on LL from others. I will most likely leave the vote there though.

[The Young Pyromancer]

Last post continued

If we eliminate Odium and free nice shards, we are able to have any and all nice/neutral shards reveal themselves, and we can support their win cons in exchange for them helping us find the elims.  Also, Odium, if you blow up Cultivation I will hunt you down.  5th Scholar already promised the same.  Go after other shards first, pass Odium, or return it please.

Edited March 18, 2018 by TheYoungPyromancer