Long Game 12: Shadows of Elantris

[Kipper]

@Hero

I know, I know...

@Wilson

So you're saying that from your perspective right now, as a villager, picking you as the Odiv would be an excellent idea?

[Herowannabe]

And I know that someone is going to post this, so it might as well be me:

[little wilson]

You thought you'd die before Round 4. You're 3 days past your expiry date.

 

I would've died Night 2 3 if Orlok hadn't given me his pendant. So my prediction for getting hit was accurate. I simply survived it. But I'm not surviving another hit. Not unless a Warrior's got my back (unlikely), and I'm going to take another hit. It's only a matter of time. I'm not sure what direction the hit's going to come from, but I'll die.

 

So you're saying that from your perspective right now, as a villager, picking you as the Odiv would be an excellent idea? 

 

I'm saying that I can see why the Gyorn would think that I would be an excellent choice. In his position, I would be very likely to choose myself as Odiv. But he'll regret that if he does it. It's a miracle I've survived this long. But my luck is going to run out. It always does. I'm not the strategic choice for Odiv, regardless of my now-triple vote.

 

And I know that someone is going to post this, so it might as well be me:

 

Take all my upvotes. All of them. I can't believe you beat me to it.

 

 

EDIT: fixed my horrendous memory of when I got hit. Night 3. Not Night 2....Shameful.

Edited June 13, 2015 by little wilson

[Lightsworn Panda]

All hail Wilson, King AND Queen of Arelon!

Meta, time to scan me. You'll find out why I held on to my Pendant.

I didn't want the Eliminators to find out what my role was. Keep it that way. I haven't chosen a Hostage yet, but I didn't want to waste it.

[Metacognition]

As usual, I'll take suggestions for my scans. There's a good case to be made to have Wilson scanned again after all, especially after this and there are plenty of other people that are worthy scanning choices. So, if anyone wants to try to convince me to switch my scan to someone other than Jain, I'm all ears. 

[Seonid]

Jain seems like a good choice to scan. Since he's been accused of being the Gyorn, we can confirm that and either lynch or redirect targets tomorrow.

[Kasimir]

...Well, chull. Can I be someone else? Anyone else other than Kas? Especially drunk!Kas? >> Uh, sorry about that guys. At least I had the sense to realise I shouldn't have been voting, much less saying anything game-relevant...?
 
So,  uh, mods, am I allowed to hide that post? >> (Rule 1 of Sanderson Elimination: do not post when you're drunk, Kas.) I'm never really gonna live this down, am I? >>
 
Also, to clarify that rather garbled message: Wyrm dropped me a message on my mobile, saying that his Internet has gone down. He's currently trying to do all sorts of arcane rituals to save it but it looks like he can't do that. He has some limited solution he's implemented (hence the mobile message) but for now, unless the situation miraculously improves, don't expect to see him being online anytime soon.
 
...Now, I'm going to go and find myself a Panadol for this headache and try to figure out what I missed, if you'll excuse me.
 
Edit: I have one question, Almighty GM. Why is Bort still among the living on the player list? Is there something we've missed?
 
Edit 2: Second question for the Almighty GMs. Here on Night 6, the vote tally brackets Bort as having voted on Wilson. Why is that the case when it was Kipper who placed the original direct vote and then used his Keeper abilities to vote Claincy? What is this supposed to indicate?

 

I've looked through the votes one more time. As far as I can see, there's only evidence of one surviving, active Keeper: Kipper. (Now, it could very well be the case that there are other Keepers who haven't been using their secret vote, for similar reasons to pre-switch Mek. But I just thought I'd note that now, on Night 3, we know that it was just Karlin's double vote on Wonko, rather than a simultaneous Keeper-and-Prince teamup on Wonko. For that reason, I suspect this may weaken the initial argument that the Cultists were clearly 'gunning for' Wonko. It's less cooperative enemy action and more serendipity.

Edited June 13, 2015 by Kasimir

[Araris Valerian]

Well, in the interests of personal survival, I would like to be scanned, but Jain is a good choice as well. There might be something to be said for you deciding on your own between a couple people so that the cultists or the Gyorn can't for certain hit somebody that you just confirmed, although that doesn't seem like a super likely scenario.

[Kasimir]

TBH, my current suggestion is for Meta to focus on scanning Gyorn candidates. My reasoning is as follows: if the Gyorn keeps up the ongoing trend of converting the scanned, we're going to have some difficulty making headway in singling out likely Gyorn suspects. There are at least four more people who have been scanned by both Priests, and if the Gyorn keeps going after them, then we're not going to be able to have extra information. We do get more Odiv suspects, but this doesn't help us in narrowing down on the Gyorn.
 
One possible route is to just assume the Gyorn is concealing themselves in low activity, but that to me seems to basically boil down to a shot in the dark, given who remains. Our current existing Gyorn suspect pool is: <M’Hael, Jain, Clanky, Dow, Araris, Claincy, Wonko/Sart> There's a decent reason to scan M'Hael as well, I would feel, especially since his name has been brought up as being a suspected Cultist. If he can be cleared of being the Gyorn and/or a Cultist, it would allow us to make progress on two fronts, rather than just one.
 
Anyway, I think my bottom line is that it is more helpful for Meta to scan putative Gyorns, because that helps us more in terms of resource allocation. I feel that discussion is much more helpful in allowing us to locate Cultists. After all, that's pretty much what we've been doing for what, how many games by now? Having a Priest is great and all, but I feel they're better employed against a conversion foe. They're handy but not absolutely necessary in pinning down Cultists. And this is despite Meta's having scanned 2 Cultists already, as-is!
 
I'm 50-50 about Jain. I know there's a push for him and I still suspect he is the Gyorn. But at the same time, he's not a very strong Cultist suspect, IMO, and so scanning him wouldn't help advance our efforts on that front. But ultimately, guess we'll find out what Meta's choice is! Stay tuned tomorrow, folks!
 
Also, do we know who got hit last night? I understand if no one wants to reveal that, but it'd be helpful to continue looking at victimology. My current read is that Seonid and Phat, at least, were attempted strategic hits. I have no idea what to make of Orlok still or Wilson.

 

Edit: Please note that Odivs will only be informed of their status by the end of the Night on which they've been sworn in. (I checked with Hreo on this.) So if it looks like someone hasn't been made an Odiv in the day-posts, anything they post at Night is similarly unaffected, until the new Day Turn begins.

Edited June 13, 2015 by Kasimir

[Haelbarde]

Welcome back to the land of the comprehensible, Kas!

#kaswashere #wasntevendrunkthistime

 

I would welcome being scanned, as I'd love to not have to worry about having Gyorn/Cultist suspicions (of course, you then get odiv suspicions, but oh well). It's just sorta annoying, 'cos I know Meta's scan could be better spent elsewhere, but no one can be sure until he's used it :/ If you wanted another suggestion, there's always Claincy. I had sorta expected one of Kas, Ren, Wilson, Claincy, Meta, Wyrm/Aonar, and maybe Wonko, to be a cultist. Of that list, only Claincy and Wonko haven't been cleared to some degree, I think. Dunno.

 

A heads up - not really going to be able to be around before turn over. Got another hour before I go to bed, then I'm out for 3-4 hours after getting up tomorrow. I'll have a brief window after waking up to anything directed my way in the next 8 hours, but otherwise, it'll have to wait till Day 8.

 

EDIT: Might as well clarify my thoughts re: scanning target. Obviously I'm biased (I know who I am, obviously). From Lightsworn's response to being scanned by Meta, I'm inclined to trust him for the time being. Don't have any thoughts really about Araris or Clanky, and at least before the last round, my impression of Dow was that he was probably fine. That would be why my personal suspicions for Gyorn would be on Wonko/Sart or Claincy.

Edited June 13, 2015 by Haelbarde

[Herowannabe]

Edit: I have one question, Almighty GM. Why is Bort still among the living on the player list? Is there something we've missed?

Edit 2: Second question for the Almighty GMs. Here on Night 6, the vote tally brackets Bort as having voted on Wilson. Why is that the case when it was Kipper who placed the original direct vote and then used his Keeper abilities to vote Claincy? What is this supposed to indicate?

Both of those are GM errors. Bort is definitely dead, and it was Kipper who voted for Wilson, not Bort. I have mentioned these to Tulir but it looks like he hasn't fixed them yet.

[Tulir]

Both of the issues are now fixed, thanks for bringing them up.

 

And Now, an Announcement:

Due to both Hero and I not being available tonight, this cycle's deadline has been extended 24 hours, ending on Sunday, about 47 hours from when the writeup was posted.

 

Thank You.

[Tulir]

This cycle is now over.  Writeup is on the way

[Tulir]

Day Eight: Another Defense

“I know it has been a busy day, but don’t let your guard down tonight.  I don’t want any of the failures of the previous nights to happen again.  Now, get to work.”  Captain Teaan snapped.  Araeo and his fellow guardsmen nodded, and started patrolling.

 

Araeo knew that Teaan had a right to be angry.  There had been two successful assassinations in the last week, and the other attempts hadn’t been stopped by them.  They best they had done was just scare off the cultists, they hadn’t actually saved anyone yet!

 

He was in the middle of trying to figure out what more they could do when he noticed a piece of paper lying on the ground in front of him.  Araeo glanced around to spot any traps, then swiftly bent down and grabbed the paper.  It had a single line written:  “Please stay quiet, don’t call out”

 

Before he could warn the others of the obvious trap, a dark figure dropped down in front of Araeo.  “I beg you, trust me.  King Karlin wanted me here, and I need your help.”

 

Araeo was about to summon help and attack, but he recognized the voice.  “I… remember you.  What do you need my help for?”

 

“There is another assassination about to happen.  I know what route they will take, so if you summon more guards, we can cut them off.  Please, stay quiet and hurry.”  The warrior whispered before Araeo started moving to get help.

 

--

 

When he returned, the cloaked figure gestured quickly for them to follow.  The guards stayed followed silently, with Araeo in the front, watching for the cultists and on the look out for any traps set for them.  It was an uneventful trip until the figure paused, cocking their head to listen.

 

“I am not ready to confront them again, so I will not fight with you.  They are right around the next corner, and you outnumber them currently.  Go,” the figure whispered, before turning around and leaving.

 

Araeo led the guards forward, and they burst around the corner right in front of a surprised mass of cultists.  Well, looks like we can stop them, he thought, before diving into their midst.  The initial charge injured many of the cultists, but they slowly disengaged, backing away, before turning around, sprinting and closing a door behind them.  Araeo tried to open it, then break it down, but it was firmly shut.

 

No one was killed!  The Jindo Warrior defended them successfully!

Day Eight has now begun and will end in around 47 hours!

Updated Player List:

1. Edrab Leah (Haelbarde)

2. Jain (Lightsworn Panda)

3. Mainem (Mckeedee123)

4. Gerald Hobbes (Burnt Spaghetti)

5. Clankii (Clanky)

6. Dow (dowanx)

7. Arfear Quinn (Araris Valerian)

8. Duke Pifferdan (Emerald 101)

9. Clancy (lord Claincy Ffnord)

10. Kaian (Kasimir)

11. Redodaa Tialehe (Silverblade5)

12. Kiireon (little wilson)

13. Nathanael (Wyrmhero)

14. Sheon Idris (Seonid)

15. Tehen (twelfthrootoftwo)

16. Won LenReen (A Smart Guy)

17. Liala (Luckat)

18. MenE (Metacognition)

 

Elantrians

1. Neo (neodymium)

2. Riingar (Renegade)

3. Edaan (Alvron)

The Deceased

1. Fernarnia (Feligon) Keeper of the Secret Tunnels

2. King Walin (spencer12347) Debtor

3. Locke (OrlokTsubodai) Citizen

4. Maisao (Mailliw73) Citizen

5. Kae (Winter Cloud) Jeskeri Cultist

6. Sienene (phattemer) Korathi Priest, Elantrian

7. Hene Bata (The Honey Badger) Pirate

8. Diren (Zas678)-Hoed Jeskeri Cultist, Elantrian

9. Karlin (Surgebound Rainspren) King of Arelon

10. Borter Clams (Bort) Jeskeri Prince

 

Pinch Hitters

1. Wyrmhero

2. A Smart Guy

3. Emerald 101

4. Silverblade5

5. Burnt Spaghetti

Edited June 15, 2015 by Tulir

[Kasimir]

Your latest news from the reluctant converts of Shu-Dereth (yeah, finally got the memo): Kipper/Burnt has finally joined the ranks of the people who pay lip service to Shu-Dereth, but not their taxes Clearly, whoever takes our taxes takes our loyalty.
 
And excellent job, Jindo Warrior(s)! This streak is extremely good, and to be honest, I'm kind of jealous (Failed Lurcher here...)
 
I'm back talking to Elantris and will convey Ren's words as soon as he has anything to say. At least he's not complaining about the food right now

 

Edit: Odiv suspect pool: Luckat, Wilson, Kas, Twei, Kipper/Burnt.

 

Gyorn suspect pool: M'Hael, Dow, Jain, Clanky, Claincy, Araris, Wonko/Sart.

Edited June 15, 2015 by Kasimir

[Haelbarde]

---

Game Quicklinks

• Signups
• Day 1 - Fel/Mek Lynched.
• Night 1 - Orlok Killed, Zas converted.
• Day 2 - Spencer Lynched.
• Night 2 - Cultist and Gyorn targets protected by pendants. Phattemer allegedly Cultist target.
• Day 3 - Mailliw73 Lynched.
• Night 3 - Bort was poisoned, someone else saved from Cultists.
• Day 4 - Winter discovered to be a Cultist and Lynched. Wyrmhero and Emerald join the game.
• Night 4 - Phattemer killed, Meta probably poisoned.
• Day 5 - Honey Badger, a Citizen Pirate, was lynched. His hostage, Zas (a Cultist), died with him.
• Night 5 - Jindo Warrior prevents the Cultist killing, Alvron taken by Shaod, Bort returns from Elantris.
• Day 6 - Bort, the Cultist Prince, was lynched.
• Night 6 - Cultists get thwarted again

• Day 7 - Surgebound, Citizen King, lynched. The Brightness Ascendant becomes more powerful than you could possibly imagine. Burnt Spag joins the game.
• Night 7 - Jindo protects Twelfth from Cultist attack
• Day 8 - Currently Active.

---

 

Will through this here now, and add comments/thoughts later.

Edited June 15, 2015 by Haelbarde

[Kasimir]

Okay. This is getting vaguely ridiculous.
 
1. Do we know who have been attacked? I get it that this playing it close to the chest thing is real cute, so I'm going to simplify the question in a way that hopefully is less compromising. Has anyone been attacked twice? We can probably rule that person out as a Cultist. In fact, at this stage, I'd (defeasibly/prima facie/pro tanto) rule out any attacked person as a Cultist. They've been foiled enough that I don't see them wasting more time trying to play a Wounded Princess Gambit. [=named after a player in LG2, Eliminator attacks fellow Eliminator to make themselves appear on Team Village.]
 
2. I hope we'll know the results eventually, but until then, the show must go on. So. I'm going to red Claincy, for what I admit might not be the best of reasons. I'd really like to see something somewhat more substantial, especially since you've been going through the main thread itself. What've you got for us?
 
3. I'd also like to flag Luckat, though that might just be my personal irritation at getting numerous apologies speaking. (I mean, an apology for inactivity is fine but why bother if you're not gonna change anytime soon?) I'd appreciate hearing more from Clanky, from Araris, from Burnt, from Silver, Emerald and Sart. Especially Burnt, Emerald, Sart and Silver: guys, most of you replaced inactives. Please don't join them, because this is not helping us at all.
 
4. At this stage, I find myself at a loss for strong suspicions on the Cultist side. I'll go through the thread again and think about it. At this point, what I do have are people I'm more inclined to think are not Cultists. I'm more inclined to believe Dowanx is not a Cultist, and I am tentatively going to suggest Seonid, since their Jindo contact hasn't died yet. I am not sure if Kipper/Burnt's questions have been adequately addressed, so I'm not going to put them on my 'inclined to think they're on Team Arelon' list yet. So this is who I got:
 
Cleared by Priest: Wilson, Ren, Kas, Neo, Twei, Mek, Alv [remember that this doesn't mean people can't be Odivs. But it does mean that not only can they not be Cultists, they can't be Gyorns.]
 
Kas's 'Tentatively Less Suspected' List: Dowanx, Seonid, Jain, Sart/Wonko, Wyrm/Aonar.
 
That leaves me with the M'Hael, Clanky, Araris, Em, Claincy, Silver, Luckat, Kipper/Burnt as existing suspicions, though at various degrees. I'm going to need to think harder on the issue, but I figured I'd kickstart discussion somewhere.
 
5. I'm not a big fan of the 'Gyorn-ssi must have a Seon' school of thought. That being said, I understand all but one existing Seon-holder (of those who began the game with a Seon) have been cleared. So I'm 50-50 about pursuing that line of reasoning. I don't want another Karlin or spanreed incident [Gyorn deliberately hiding their Seon], but at the same time, it does seem like something that might be worth a glance at. All the same, my Gyorn suspects strongly map onto the list of existing hiding places for the Gyorn: <M'Hael, Clanky, Dow, Sart/Wonko, Jain, Araris, Claincy.> At this point, I don't have anything strongly in favour of anyone. I'm still not sure about Jain, but his willingness to be scanned does make him a little less suspicious in my estimation. Again, I'll need to go back through the thread to be able to make a definite statement about where my suspicions lie, but I figure it's worth highlighting the people I generally suspect, even if I'm not yet ready to zoom in on definite targets.
 
6. Discuss, guys! We will discuss all the things! We must.

[Wyrmhero]

Ah, glorious internet...

 

So, commenting on the previous lynch, it does indeed appear that Karlin was just being completely inactive and unhelpful, rather than being deliberately malicious. I am however very concerned by the bandwagon on him. We had no proof of anything save what Jain said, so why in the world did we end up lynching him by a good half a dozen vote lead?

 

I want to know what Meta discovered, but we don't have that info yet, so I won't hold back just because of that. I would also agree with Kas, that it's important we get to know just who is being attacked here, not just in case it allows us to cross someone off (which I doubt, to be honest), but because it tells us what the Eliminators are afraid of at the moment. If it was Meta, for example (which my money would be on), that suggests that he has some of them still in his sights, and they want to kill him before he can scan them.

 

I still think Jain is suspicious, and if he is, then my second guess would be to look at Claincy, for placing the 'deciding' vote on him and tipping the balance away from Jain. It seems way too defensive for me, and could possibly hint at him trying to save his only other teammate. If you found him just 'suspicious', Claincy, why did you vote to kill? You barely even acknowledged Karlin's supposed guilt.

Edited June 15, 2015 by Wyrmhero

[Kasimir]

Ah, glorious internet...

The King has Returned!

...No, I'm not ashamed of this. Why do you ask?

[twelfthrootoftwo]

Not much time, but:

 

I was the one attacked this cycle. (Thank you, Warrior!) I don't know who was targeted in the previous cycles though.

 

I'm going to put my not-quite-a-poke vote back on Luckat, with a more specific question: what do you think of our Gyorn candidates?

[Claincy]

2. I hope we'll know the results eventually, but until then, the show must go on. So. I'm going to red Claincy, for what I admit might not be the best of reasons. I'd really like to see something somewhat more substantial, especially since you've been going through the main thread itself. What've you got for us?

 

Fair enough. My inactivity has, unfortunately, been unavoidable between sickness and Uni. I wasn't counting on being sick when I decided I had time to play, though given my track record so far this semester I suppose I should have. *shrug* too late now.

 

I had a major project due today that has been a sinkhole for my time over the past few days. Fortunately that is over so I only need to worry about my remaining exam, and (hopefully) my deferred exam. (I was too sick to complete it). So hopefully I'll be able to be more active now, assuming I'm still alive to be so.

 

I've tried to do some searching through the main thread to try to work stuff out, though the people I was most suspicious of have been confirmed or killed by now. The other reason you would have seen me reading it was me catching up on the events of days and nights after they had ended as I mostly read the thread in large chunks when I had the time.

 

My primary suspects recently were Ostrich and Karlin as I felt that their virtual inactivity without being replaced by a pinch hitter was highly suspicious. Then Ostrich was replaced, which doesn't clear him, but it does largely negate my reasons for suspecting him. That left Karlin as my primary suspect, hence my vote for him.

 

I still think Jain is suspicious, and if he is, then my second guess would be to look at Claincy, for placing the 'deciding' vote on him and tipping the balance away from Jain. It seems way too defensive for me, and could possibly hint at him trying to save his only other teammate. If you found him just 'suspicious', Claincy, why did you vote to kill? You barely even acknowledged Karlin's supposed guilt.

 

I'd stated my suspicions on both of them a while back and the reasons Karlin was being voted for last cycle were the same, with the addition of his seon. I didn't have the time or energy for it to be worth reiterating what I and others had already said so I didn't.

 

It wasn't a matter of Jain being unsuspicious, he was, and is. But I was more suspicious of Karlin, hence the vote. 

 

At this point I'm trying to work out who I think is most suspicious. Jain hasn't got any less or more suspicious since yesterday in my opinion which means he's still fairly suspicious. Him asking Meta to scan him doesn't change much from my perspective as he was very likely to be scanned (or lynched today) as it was. If you're a cultist and you think you're going to be scanned you may as well ask for it in the hopes that that makes the priest suspect you less. Of course if he is a citizen then he probably would have said the same thing anyway so it doesn't make me suspect him more. Just not less either.

 

I'll try to do more, make some notes, see what I can come up with tomorrow. It's too late at night and I am too tired to do it now :/

[Haelbarde]

So I went and had a look at the past lynch votes. Looking at the raw results (so the results pre vote manipulation), and removing people verified (Wilson, Phattemer, Mailliw, Spencer, Kasimir, Twelfth, Meta, Honey, Wyrm(treating hims as mostly verified - Dula, while technically not a Safe Role, feels like it probably would be)), Dow stands out as being the only player to have been part of the majority lynch every cycle (except Day 5, which was messy and indecisive). To be fair, since I started voting (I didn't vote for the three days) I have also been in the all the winning lynch votes, again barring the Day 5 one. Wilson also also close (missing Day 2 in addition to Day 5), but she has the advantage of being verified. Another potentially interesting thing would be that Emerald voted for both Winter and Bort, voting Bort before we got the details of Meta's scan. But then, Emerald only joined Day 4 (Winter's vote) and then hasn't posted since the 10th (has been active elsewhere on the site over the last week though).

I plan to dig further into the past votes, to see if there's anything else interesting, but it's late, so that'll have to wait for another time.

[Burnt Spaghetti]

One thing I've noticed about Dow is that he was accused quite heavily by Bort a while back. He wasn't really defended by anyone during this, so either it was a failed attempt on Borts side to throw a fellow cultist under the bus to gain villagers trust, or Dow was just a villager the cultists were trying to put suspicion on.

I have not yet decided for myself which I feel is more likely as I am still trying to work out what I think of most of the players. I'll reinvestigate the matter later when I'm not so tired.

[Emerald101]

At this point, I honestly lack any cultist suspicions that go beyond gut feelings. The one player who seems truly suspicious to me is Jain, mostly because of his responses to the accusations of Day 7, which seemed overly defensive.

[Wyrmhero]

Okay Claincy, thank you.

 

I want to know whether or not Meta scanned Jain. If he did, then we know either way with regards to Jain. If he did not, then my vote will be going on Jain, because I really want to know why he was so eager to fight back. If he did check, and it turns out that Jain is innocent, then I will vote elsewhere.