Anniversary Game: In the Re-Wake of the Koloss

[Mckeedee123]

Well, I'll admit that nothing short of a seeker checking someone is real proof, but this is the sort of thing I've been waiting for all game. I hate circumstantial evidence because it's practically random, but serious vote manipulation is real and analyze-able. That's why I wrote a big post and everything.

 

I guess I trust that Wilson has more info than me, though. I'm kind of out of the loop, PM-wise. I'd be interested in know why she trusts Hero, and I'd definitely defer to her judgment if that reason was good. That doesn't mean I can't try to figure things out for myself in the meantime.

[Herowannabe]

First, though, let me explain something. We have a Soothing and two Riotings. I'm 90% certain now that the Spiked have two vote manipulators. A Soother and a Rioter. The Soothing on Wyrm is the Spiked trying to implicate him. That makes sense. The Riotings though. I'm working on those. At first, I thought that Sarc's Riot was the Spiked one. Because that was the attempt to save Ostrich. But I'm actually not sure they were really trying to save him. I think they were trying to implicate as many people as they could so when he died and was discovered as Spiked, the fingers would start pointing at Wyrm and some others. Maybe Maill. Maybe Hero. Depends on which the Spiked Riot was and which the Village Riot was.

 

I'm actually not convinced that this was all some sort of master plan by the Spiked. It could be, as has been suggested by other players. But looking at results, it seems like there wasn't any real coordination between the soother/rioters. It's definitely possible that at least two of the soother/rioters/mistborn were villagers, acting on their own. I could easily see a scenario where a spiked rioter moved Sarco's vote from Ostrich to me, and then the other villager rioter moved my vote to Maill, and the village soother (Maill perhaps? though that seems to obvious) soothed Wyrm.

 

I don't know, now that I lay it out like that it doesn't seem very likely, but crazier things have happened. Wilson's suggestion could be the case too, but if so then I don't see why the Spiked wouldn't just double up their vote manipulations to get me lynched instead of the tie vote.

[Metacognition]

Day 4: Shattered Wishes

 

Most people didn’t know it, but Eoladdin’s lamp was just an empty prop by now. He had already gotten his wish out of it and it had been fulfilled years ago, but he kept it around anyways. After all, it was also a convenient place to keep his metals.

 

He hadn’t been much older than twelve when it had happened. The event that had answered his prayers had also shattered his mind, but he couldn’t complain… literally, because he had no recollection of it.

 

He had been a simple plantation skaa, living with his mother and father and toiling in the fields every day under the harsh threat of the whip. It was far from a good life, but it was a life all the same and he and his family hadn’t known any different. They were as content as they knew how to be.

 

But there had been reports of a skaa rebellion nearby and rumors that the skaa of the surrounding areas were helping hide them. The Lord Ruler had sent the Garrison out to put down this rebellion and punish any who helped them.

 

Eoladdin and his family, all of the skaa on his plantation in fact, hadn’t helped the rebels at all. They had never even seen any of the rebels, but that didn’t stop the Garrison from making an example of them. He remembered hearing the guardsmen talking with the lord of his plantation and assuring him that he would be paid for any skaa that were “unable” to work after they were done, but that a display of force would help keep the rest of them in line.

 

They had been marched out of their hovels and the guards selected 10 people. They would be reminders of what happened to any skaa who aided the rebels. His mother and father had been picked.

 

Eoladdin didn’t know what to do as his only family was carted away towards the lord’s manor. Something broke inside of him, as if his spirit had been broken and he turned and ran. He ran past the hovels and through the fields and he just kept running. He ran, trying to flee the thoughts in his head. If he ran fast enough, maybe the truth wouldn’t be able to catch up with him.

 

He neared the edge of the plantation’s property and continued running. Up and down the hills, through the sparse trees. It wasn’t working. His lungs burned and his body ached, but he couldn’t stop seeing his parents being taken away.

 

His foot banged against a rock or something and he went tumbling. He rolled multiple times before coming to a stop. He was battered and bruised and he just could conjure the strength to get up again. He would die right here and that was just fine with him. The Mistwraiths could have him for all he cared.

 

That’s when he saw a glimmer off of the object he had tripped over and though he was exhausted and depressed, eventually curiosity caused him to crawl over to find out what it was.

 

It was a lamp, just like out of the stories. If he rubbed it, a genie would grant him a single wish. It was a children’s story, but he wasn’t more than a child himself and he knew exactly what he would wish for; to be strong enough to save his parents. He dug the lamp the rest of the way out of the ground and rubbed and rubbed, but nothing happened. He was about to throw the lamp away in disgust when he heard something rattling within. He opened the top and found a single vial, with various metal shavings in it.

 

Was it a potion of some form? Maybe it would give him superpowers? Could it be? Was his prayer answered?

 

He downed the vial and waited for something to happen.

 

Nothing.

 

For the third time today, his hopes had been dashed. He curled into a ball and awaited death.

 

It was night before he next awoke. A twig or something snapped off in the distance and frightened him awake. He leaped up from his slumber, his survival instinct kicking in to save him where his will would not.

 

It was a search party of the Garrison, hunting for him. That’s when he noticed how bright the light of the torches were and how quick and strong he felt. There was a comfortable burning in his stomach. He was burning Tin and Pewter.

 

The Genie really had answered his wish! He could go save his parents!

 

He crept away from the search party and rushed back to the plantation as fast as possible, still clutching the lamp, but he was already too late… far too late.

 

The bodies had been mutilated and stacked near the skaa hovels, where they would stay as a reminder and something inside Eoladdin finally snapped. It was just too much and his brain couldn’t handle the stress- so it didn’t. It blocked it all out. He didn’t have parents. He never had a childhood. He had sprung from the lamp, whole as he was now.

 

He walked away from the desecrated bodies with a single word.

 

Sometimes, on nights like the one he was having tonight, he could almost remember something about his life before the lamp. He would spend hours staring off into space, just rubbing the lamp and trying to pull it forth. It looked like it could be a face, a motherly face.

 

He was so wrapped up in his thoughts that he didn’t notice the figure behind him, even when they sliced his throat.

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Even though most people had forgotten about wanting to storm Lord Ostrich’s shop after the explosion, one person didn’t….

 

Lord Ostrich was downstairs in his actual shop, double checking his wares after the explosion had shaken through the town.

 

He had both praised and cursed that explosion. On the bright side, it had kept the villagers from leveling his shop. On the down side, it had destroyed a few pristine pieces.

 

His shop was a menagerie of color and objects. Stained glass hung from the ceiling, suspended to catch the light and his various sculptures and glasses and bowls and a hundred other glass items sat beneath them. Everything was set just so, so that it would catch the light as it flowed through the open windows during the day.

 

He was about to head back upstairs after finishing cleaning everything up when his world came crashing down around him. Multiple coin smashed through his front windows, but they were aimed far too high to hit him. They did hit the glass pieces dangling from the ceiling though, turning them in guillotine blades as they fell. Ostrich covered his head and tried to run, but every step he took was into the path of a falling pane of glass.

 

More coins shot through the store and more behind them until the store was a hazardous mess of raining glass shards. One sliced open his forearm. Another stabbed through his foot.

 

Lord Ostrich cired out and tried to jump away from the pain in his foot, but the glass shard had stuck him to the floor and it threw him off balance.

 

He toppled backwards, landing on on of his displays. A thousand tiny cuts blossomed in his back as he crashed through the glass and to the floor.

 

Before he could get up, another coin sailed through the window and clipped a sheet of glass hanging right above him. It cracked and swung in the air as if deciding if it would fall or not.

 

Gravity won out in the end and the sheet fell, slicing him in two….

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

The Tineyes were running out of places to display their messages, since the town was in so much chaos, no one took the time to clean up the older ones. That was how Wilson found herself with a letter to carry. She was a messenger after all. If she didn’t get the message to the entire town, then they might have to do something that they truly hated… cleaning up their own messages so they could write more.

 

The message read:

 

For You:

 

Killing with no thought is no good.

Lynching just because you do.

Every single one of you

Running through the streets of blood.

 

Why must you hunger for death?

Most just want to take a breath.

Not you.

All this screaming, yelling, you do.

 

Evil is here!

Liar! I see it there!

You're evil too, with no doubt.

A fool I'd be if I trust you.

 

So worried about the Spiked

Is it worth all the death?

How much better than they

Are you?

 

Three deaths of innocents

Were your fault alone

Three others were

The Spiked in our home.

 

All you bloodthirsty creatures

In this town.

You can't get enough of it,

Can you?

 

The worst part is

I'm one of you.

-

But if you want real clues, here's my hint to you:

Wyrm, dowanx, Peng, Macen, Ostrich (But dead men tell no tales), Ash

 

________________________________________________________________________

 

Day 4 begins and will last 48 hours!

 

Eoladdin was a Village Mistborn!

Lord Ostrich was a Regular Villager!

Updated Player List

[Sarcomere]

...Sorry for suspecting you so much, Ostrich. Rest in peace.
 
Losing the Mistborn is bad. Unless we have another one somewhere, which I doubt.
 
It looks like a Tineye listed some people--suspects? I'm going to assume that the Tineye is in league with the Coinshot, because of the mention that "dead men tell no tales." Since any Coinshot is likely a Villager since the Spiked probably would have been using their coinshot EVERY night if they had one, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that I believe this Tineye is a Villager too, and should therefore be accorded some measure of trust. This list of people is probably a good place as any to start, then.

 

Wyrm. I find all the vote manipulation last cycle suspicious, especially the mainpulations that didn't seem to do so much... I remember that your vote got Soothed, to apparently zero overall effect. I feel like this could be a Spiked strategy- to make it seem like their own people are victims.

[Unodus]

That last line.... "I'm one of you"...

Does that mean the Tineye is one of the suspects the poem is indicating?

[Wyrmhero]

Hmm.. So if Ostrich was a Villager, what does that mean for the vote manipulations last round? I could see the Spiked attempting to mess with the vote, but if there was only one of them then it doesn't make sense that they would attempt it (unless their Rioter was away early in the Cycle). My Rioter-friend has claimed he was away for most of the Cycle, and decided to change Hreo's vote to Mailliw early on. This could explain the lack of organisation. I am attempting to get a reason from him, but may just throw things out into the thread if needs be.

The other unexplained one is the Soothing on me. I still don't get it unless someone was trying to either set me up as Mistborn or prove their powers. Wilson and others in the know, can you confirm that it was not Eoladdin showing you that he had Brass for that Cycle? And for that matter, did he ever draw Bronze?

 

Edit: I would be quite interested in the player who Soothed me PMing to discuss some things, since they can't answer here without giving themselves away.

Edited January 12, 2015 by Wyrmhero

[Mckeedee123]

Nevermind. I'm not voting for Hero after all (especially if Wilson thinks otherwise). If Ostrich wasn't an eliminator, then pretty much all of my conclusions fall apart. I now suspect that the vote change from Ostrich to Maill was the one done by a random villager, and so wasn't done deliberately.

 

 -Wyrm soothed: Other than the obvious-but-probably-incorrect conclusions here (him being Mistborn), this could have been either a villager action used somewhat randomly or a clumsy spiked action to try and make Wyrm look like a Mistborn.

 

 -Vote change from Ostrich to Hero: I'm still pretty convinced that this was done by the eliminators, though for the life of me I wouldn't know why. There is really no point in trying to save a villager. Unless it was supposed to make the villagers waste a lynch.

 

 -Vote change from Hero to Maill: It could have been done to tie everything up, which would mean that there was no lynch. Since it was in the eliminators' best interest to get Ostrich lynched, though, I'd say that this was just random interference from someone else.

[Wyrmhero]

 -Vote change from Hero to Maill: It could have been done to tie everything up, which would mean that there was no lynch. Since it was in the eliminators' best interest to get Ostrich lynched, though, I'd say that this was just random interference from someone else.

 

Actually, it may not have been in their best interests to get Ostrich lynched. By saving him, they made it look more like Ostrich was an Eliminator, and so the idea would be to make us waste another lynch on him and draw the wrong conclusions for another Cycle. They probably didn't expect him to be taken out by Coinshot rather than lynch. I think this has happened before, with Kal Dell back in QF2 (though that was also to let them kill someone that Cycle too, either Kas or myself, can't remember). That was Hreo and Renegade as Eliminators, incidentally. So I wouldn't say it was entirely random interference.

[Seonid]

There is something rotten in Tyrian Falls.

 

Now seems like a good time to break out some good old Brandon Sanderson swearing. This is a storming, Colors-cursed situation. (Sorry, I'm not especially creative in that area.) So, we're down a Seeker and our Mistborn. And Ostrich was innocent. How do they know to target these people? Are people just being careless with role reveals in PMs? Or are the Spiked just getting lucky? I'm not even sure how to process this. 

 

But I'll try. Since other people have been analyzing the vote shenanigans from the last Day Cycle, and since I don't have anything new to add to that discussion, I will take a brief analysis of the night kills. The Coinshot kill seems obvious - our Villager (likely the same one who targeted Rent last Day cycle) taking the most suspicious target. I won't spend any more time on that.

 

It's Eol's death that concerns me. I have two thoughts. One, if he carelessly (or even carefully, but wrongly - as it turns out) revealed his role in PM with someone that was Spiked (or who revealed it, in turn, to a Spiked). That's the easy explanation for his death, but I wasn't in any PM's where his role was bandied about, and I don't feel comfortable making assumptions without evidence. If anybody was in a PM where that happened, I think that that is extremely important and pertinent information.

 

In the absence of such information, though, I will examine the possibility that Eol wasn't targeted because he was a Mistborn, and that his role was a lucky break for the Spiked.

 

With Eol's innocence proven, it seems clear that the rampant suspicion of him in-thread was at the least aided and abetted by the Spiked. He was a candidate for lynch death through much of the first cycle and again during the second cycle (when he was saved by vote manipulation). That manipulation now certainly seems like an attempt to cast suspicion on him by the Spiked (and maybe Wyrm as well - see my analysis post).

 

It is possible (especially without any evidence of a role reveal) that the Spiked were just getting rid of him because we didn't fall into the trap of lynching him for them. In this scenario, he was a tool that had outlived its usefulness. In fact, it looks like (according to the thread, at least, I don't know what all y'all have been talking about in PM's) the Village was coming to trust him, which could conceivably make him a dangerous figure to the Spiked.

 

Now, maybe my inexperience is showing through in this analysis, so feel free to correct me (or to offer more information that would require that I revise my analysis). Especially if there is evidence of a role reveal in one of the PM's. That, of course, would change the analysis quite a bit.

 

[EDIT]: Color!

Edited January 12, 2015 by Seonid

[little wilson]

Well, I can honestly say that I am shocked that Ostrich is a villager. I apologize for sending the Coinshot after you. I will take full responsibility for that. Should've sent them after Ash instead.

 

I mentioned toward the end of my megapost a gambit that Maill and I tried on Ash. We thought that he was a Spiked Soother, so we said our Seeker contact seeked him and saw him as a Spiked Soother. In the course of this gambit, both Maill and I were talking to Ash simultaneously, and he was responding to both of us quick enough that he couldn't have also been consulting a doc. I thought this indicated strongly towards his innocence. However, then I realized that he told me Maill accused him of being a Spiked Rioter. Maill did not.

 

The funny thing is, when Ash said this in that PM, I didn't read Rioter as Rioter. I read it as Soother, since that's what I was expecting to see. I have a feeling that Ash did the same thing. We both saw "vote manipulation role" and interpreted it how our brains wanted to. For Ash, that was Rioter. For me, that was Soother. Interestingly, Ash claimed to be a Regular Villager. He also offered multiple times to be sacrificed for more information. This reminds me of LG6, when he was darkfriend and magnanimously suggested the villagers kill him (but he didn't say what he was).

 

My vote is going on Ash.

 

Wilson and others in the know, can you confirm that it was not Eoladdin showing you that he had Brass for that Cycle? And for that matter, did he ever draw Bronze?

 

He was a Thug that cycle. He drew Tin, Zinc (I think; maybe it was Brass), Pewter, and finally, Iron. Yes. He was a Lurcher the night he died. I'm rather peeved about that, because I should've known he would be the target. I said during Cycle 3 that I was pretty sure the Spiked had seeked him Night 2. They had a more important target Night 3, but that, logically, leaves him for Night 4. And instead I had him lurch the Tineye who I'm not even sure that the Spiked know at this point. Well. Actually. They might now. Which means we'll probably lose PMs tomorrow. That or I'll be killed.

 

Right now, I've only been contacted by one Lurcher, and that person has moved between lurching me and the Tineye. Unless I win the I Know You Know me and Spiked are going to play, either I or the Tineye will be dead (unless the Spiked hate I Know You Knows just as much as me and decide not to play by going after someone else). Fortunately, the information gleaned from my PMs (including who others have PMs with) has been delivered into other's capable hands, in the event of my death.

 

 

Now seems like a good time to break out some good old Brandon Sanderson swearing. This is a storming, Colors-cursed situation. (Sorry, I'm not especially creative in that area.) So, we're down a Seeker and our Mistborn. And Ostrich was innocent. How do they know to target these people? Are people just being careless with role reveals in PMs? Or are the Spiked just getting lucky? I'm not even sure how to process this. 

 

It's Eol's death that concerns me. I have two thoughts. One, if he carelessly (or even carefully, but wrongly - as it turns out) revealed his role in PM with someone that was Spiked (or who revealed it, in turn, to a Spiked). That's the easy explanation for his death, but I wasn't in any PM's where his role was bandied about, and I don't feel comfortable making assumptions without evidence. If anybody was in a PM where that happened, I think that that is extremely important and pertinent information.

 

In the absence of such information, though, I will examine the possibility that Eol wasn't targeted because he was a Mistborn, and that his role was a lucky break for the Spiked.

 

With Eol's innocence proven, it seems clear that the rampant suspicion of him in-thread was at the least aided and abetted by the Spiked. He was a candidate for lynch death through much of the first cycle and again during the second cycle (when he was saved by vote manipulation). That manipulation now certainly seems like an attempt to cast suspicion on him by the Spiked (and maybe Wyrm as well - see my analysis post).

 

It is possible (especially without any evidence of a role reveal) that the Spiked were just getting rid of him because we didn't fall into the trap of lynching him for them. In this scenario, he was a tool that had outlived its usefulness. In fact, it looks like (according to the thread, at least, I don't know what all y'all have been talking about in PM's) the Village was coming to trust him, which could conceivably make him a dangerous figure to the Spiked.

 

Now, maybe my inexperience is showing through in this analysis, so feel free to correct me (or to offer more information that would require that I revise my analysis). Especially if there is evidence of a role reveal in one of the PM's. That, of course, would change the analysis quite a bit.

 

Eol was the Mistborn I was referring to--at least, I'm pretty sure I said here in the thread that I'd been contacted by a Mistborn. I told two others his identity, but I highly doubt those two are Spiked. I've had my doubts about them, but have again and again been reaffirmed of their innocence--mostly due to the circumstances surrounding my trusting them. They don't make sense at all for a spiked, either because there are simpler means to do what they were doing or because it is way too convoluted for the Spiked.

 

As I said above, I believe he was Seeked by the Spiked Seeker on Night 2. They tried to lynch him Day 2, and when that failed, he became a target. However, he wasn't the primary target on Night 3 because of Araris. So they targeted him Night 4. Also, about Araris--we had no idea he was a Seeker, so that's not information the Spiked got through me or Claincy.

 

I actually like your analyses. They're good. 

[WeiryWriter]

I'm interested by the list of suspects in the Tineye message.  It would appear that the tineye was privy to the fact that Ostrich was getting coinshot, otherwise that dead men tell no tales line was a really good guess.

 

I'm also curious about the inclusion of Macen, who hasn't been active at all (or at least I don't recall him posting anything).  All the others have been at least somewhat active but Macen is an anomaly.  So Macen, if you read this do you have any idea why you were targeted thusly?

 

Also Wyrm, I don't believe you have responded to my questioning of your push for the coinshot-ing of the inactive buffer.  If you have, I apologize, but I still wonder why you advocated such a stance.

[Seonid]

Well, I can honestly say that I am shocked that Ostrich is a villager. I apologize for sending the Coinshot after you. I will take full responsibility for that. Should've sent them after Ash instead.

 

I mentioned toward the end of my megapost a gambit that Maill and I tried on Ash. We thought that he was a Spiked Soother, so we said our Seeker contact seeked him and saw him as a Spiked Soother. In the course of this gambit, both Maill and I were talking to Ash simultaneously, and he was responding to both of us quick enough that he couldn't have also been consulting a doc. I thought this indicated strongly towards his innocence. However, then I realized that he told me Maill accused him of being a Spiked Rioter. Maill did not.

 

The funny thing is, when Ash said this in that PM, I didn't read Rioter as Rioter. I read it as Soother, since that's what I was expecting to see. I have a feeling that Ash did the same thing. We both saw "vote manipulation role" and interpreted it how our brains wanted to. For Ash, that was Rioter. For me, that was Soother. Interestingly, Ash claimed to be a Regular Villager. He also offered multiple times to be sacrificed for more information. This reminds me of LG6, when he was darkfriend and magnanimously suggested the villagers kill him (but he didn't say what he was).

 

My vote is going on Ash.

 

 

He was a Thug that cycle. He drew Tin, Zinc (I think; maybe it was Brass), Pewter, and finally, Iron. Yes. He was a Lurcher the night he died. I'm rather peeved about that, because I should've known he would be the target. I said during Cycle 3 that I was pretty sure the Spiked had seeked him Night 2. They had a more important target Night 3, but that, logically, leaves him for Night 4. And instead I had him lurch the Tineye who I'm not even sure that the Spiked know at this point. Well. Actually. They might now. Which means we'll probably lose PMs tomorrow. That or I'll be killed.

 

Right now, I've only been contacted by one Lurcher, and that person has moved between lurching me and the Tineye. Unless I win the I Know You Know me and Spiked are going to play, either I or the Tineye will be dead (unless the Spiked hate I Know You Knows just as much as me and decide not to play by going after someone else). Fortunately, the information gleaned from my PMs (including who others have PMs with) has been delivered into other's capable hands, in the event of my death.

 

 

 

Eol was the Mistborn I was referring to--at least, I'm pretty sure I said here in the thread that I'd been contacted by a Mistborn. I told two others his identity, but I highly doubt those two are Spiked. I've had my doubts about them, but have again and again been reaffirmed of their innocence--mostly due to the circumstances surrounding my trusting them. They don't make sense at all for a spiked, either because there are simpler means to do what they were doing or because it is way too convoluted for the Spiked.

 

As I said above, I believe he was Seeked by the Spiked Seeker on Night 2. They tried to lynch him Day 2, and when that failed, he became a target. However, he wasn't the primary target on Night 3 because of Araris. So they targeted him Night 4. Also, about Araris--we had no idea he was a Seeker, so that's not information the Spiked got through me or Claincy.

 

I actually like your analyses. They're good. 

 

Thanks, Wilson. That means a lot coming from such an experienced player.

 

I'm still formulating who I want to vote for right now, so I might not post that until later in the cycle (like tomorrow...)

[A Joe in the Bush]

I'm actually less and less certain about Wilson. Her Shock at Ostrich has the same vibes of her apology to me after she killed me in Alvron's Epic Game. And seeing as she was one of the few who knew Eol's Role, wouldn't it be logical that she would be the betrayer?

[Wyrmhero]

Also Wyrm, I don't believe you have responded to my questioning of your push for the coinshot-ing of the inactive buffer.  If you have, I apologize, but I still wonder why you advocated such a stance.

 

I don't think I did answer it, so I'll do that now for you. My reasoning is pretty simple - We don't want to waste lynches on inactives who won't be defending themselves or generating a discussion and we can't generate intel on. Therefore, it is by far better to kill them during the Night. If they are a Villager, then it doesn't matter because as an inactive they wouldn't be helping us, and if they are an Eliminator, then it's one less for us to have to find. In addition to that, they could be Eliminators pretending to be inactive. We shouldn't be taking them out instead of our actual suspicions if we have people to kill first, but if we have nothing else to do, then we might as well. I was also wondering if anyone would come out of inactivity in response to that to prevent themselves from possibly being targeted, but that didn't seem to happen, sadly.

[Ashiok]

Well, I'm sorry that I took Mail saying that Araris was mad that I CHANGED his vote to mean rioting. Wilson. you have the village in the palm of your hand, yet we haven't accomplished anything yet. I'm getting tired of your oscillating suspicion of me, and I know that you could easily be using me as a distraction. You know almost eveything now, put it all together, you should find a spiked. The fact that you haven't implies that you're spiked.

[little wilson]

Well, I'm sorry that I took Mail saying that Araris was mad that I CHANGED his vote to mean rioting. Wilson. you have the village in the palm of your hand, yet we haven't accomplished anything yet. I'm getting tired of your oscillating suspicion of me, and I know that you could easily be using me as a distraction. You know almost eveything now, put it all together, you should find a spiked. The fact that you haven't implies that you're spiked.

 

I have the village in the palm of my hand? I think not. I've been contacted by a number of players, yes, but only a very few of whom I trust. I'm slowly working on narrowing the field on who's Spiked.

 

My "oscillating suspicion" of you should come as no surprise. I've been oscillating suspicion on most of the players who I'm in regular contact with, but that's just a part of this game. Manipulation is such a huge aspect that I know I'm being manipulated. I just don't know where it's coming from. So yes. I've oscillated suspicion toward you. Would you like to know who else I've been swaying back and forth with? Wyrm. Claincy. Maill. Hero. Winter. Joe.....Pretty much everybody I'm in contact with right now. But in the last 48 hours, I've realized that the majority of that previously named group are good. And the ones I'm not quite certain about, I think are good, but I'm still sort of debating. Using a person's seesawing suspicion as evidence of their guilt is faulty at best.

 

You say I "know almost everything now." Actually, I don't. I know 4 players roles, for certain. That's including my own. There are 4 other players who have claimed roles, and I believe they're telling the truth, but I don't have evidence to support it. One player is wavering between two roles, but I'm becoming more and more convinced I know which role they have. And one player claimed a role, but I'm certain they were lying, either about both their alignment and their role or just their alignment.

 

 

 

The fact that you haven't implies that you're spiked.

 

To this, I defer you to LG6. That game should be familiar to you. You were evil in that one as well. Only 25 players in that game, and we didn't kill the first darkfriend until Cycle 5. This game had 28 to start with, and we're only on Cycle 4. So please, tell me where I'm going wrong? Why is this so different from any of the past games? Just because we didn't luck-hit a Spiked in the first 2 rounds? That rarely happens. Perhaps it would've if people would talk more, but out of the 21 players left in this game, 3 are inactive, 4-5 are quasi-inactive, and another 7 are around, but not talking much. If people would talk more, we'd be actually getting somewhere.

 

One final thought. In all three games I've been evil, can you tell me when I've given you the impression that I would kill someone who trusted me completely? I like my mindgames, and if someone trusts me, there's nothing on the green earth that would make me kill them. I'm going to screw with their minds. You know this. Maill knows this. Joe knows this. Wyrm knows this. Every experienced player in this game knows this. So doesn't that mean that I wouldn't kill Eol? Or Kas? They're among the last players I'd kill--particularly Kas (sorry, Kas. But messing with you would be hilarious.... ).

 

Try again, Ash. You wanted me to find a Spiked? I just did. It's you. Congratulations.

[Ashiok]

I refer you to the barrow barons game, Mitosis, and my death. Admittedly, that was a slightly different case, I had an item of importance, but Aonar probably told you what it did, so you might have been able to manipulate me into ignoring the results. Also, LG 6 took so long partially because you got distracted by the talking horse and shiv's manipulation up top... You say you know little, but you know my role, Mail's, and I'm pretty sure you knew Eol and Ren, if not 'Raris too, before they died.

Sure, accuse me on something from last day cycle. Totally don't do it then. You said that your little impromptu interrogation cleared me, now one word from it misinterpreted, and I'm spiked.

I don't even know why I'm still here...

[Peng the Just]

I'm going to bend to Wilson's manipulation and cast my vote toward ash. If he ends up being innocent, I'm Turning on you Wilson.

[little wilson]

I refer you to the barrow barons game, Mitosis, and my death. Admittedly, that was a slightly different case, I had an item of importance, but Aonar probably told you what it did, so you might have been able to manipulate me into ignoring the results. 

 

Much different case. I decided very early into that game that I was going to target Aonar and Gamma with my manipulation. The only reason you came to trust me at all was because you were the messenger between Aonar and me. Aonar never told me what you were doing and you didn't either. And you notice that I didn't kill Aonar or Gamma. Because I knew they trusted me, and I wanted to mess with them as much as I possibly could. And I did. And it was great.

 

Also, LG 6 took so long partially because you got distracted by the talking horse and shiv's manipulation up top.

 

We almost killed you Cycle 4. And then you PMed me, playing a distraught villager, saying something along the lines of "I just came from MR1 and that game was BLOODY! Can you blame me for not trusting people? That game taught me not to, because it was like everyone was a sharder! Trust no one!" What you're doing now reminds me of that--acting distraught and telling us to just kill you. It's slightly different, and sounds a little more authentic, but it's close enough that it tells me something could be up here.

 

You say you know little, but you know my role, Mail's, and I'm pretty sure you knew Eol and Ren, if not 'Raris too, before they died.

 

I do know Maill's, yes. And I did now Eol's. Yours I'm not so sure about. I know what you claimed. I don't believe you though. I think you're lying. I did not know Ren's role. I think you might have. You were in a one-on-one PM with him. But Ren isn't a factor here, because he was killed by the Coinshot, and there's no way the Coinshot is Spiked. And I've already said that I didn't know Araris' role.

 

 

Sure, accuse me on something from last day cycle. Totally don't do it then. You said that your little impromptu interrogation cleared me, now one word from it misinterpreted, and I'm spiked.

I don't even know why I'm still here...

 

I'm not just voting for you based on one thing. I gave you my suspicions of you days ago. It wasn't much then, but it's grown. There have been multiple instances where you have done something suspicious. Not even circumstantial--you did something. I've never totally cleared your name. Each time, I've added more to my notes. This is just the latest point. If you want, I can list off every single thing you've done that has got my eye on you. It's a bit of a list though.

 

One word from it. Yes. One word has brought down countries, if it's the wrong word. You're trying to make it seem like a changed vote can only be Rioter. That's not the case. Vote manipulation roles, by very definition, change votes. Soother changes it from one person to nothing. Rioter changes it from one person to someone else. It was you who defined it as Rioter. But still, I'm not saying you're Spiked just from this. Again, it's been a compilation of things, and now it's to the point where I can't ignore it any longer. The evidence is too high.

 

Joe didn't vote for me because he actually distrusts me. He voted for me to see who was going to take the opportunity to jump on it. I was actually hoping you would, because the last time suspicion landed on me, you did it. Night 2, right after Hero accused me (wrongly) of casting the last vote. You made up evidence against me and when Kas called you out on it, you had to apologize because you realized you had nothing. And now when Joe votes for me, you jumped on it less than an hour later. If that's not being an opportunist, I don't know what is.

 

Also, I want to come back to oscillating suspicions comment from earlier. True villagers are used to being hesitant to trust and having others trust them. Knowing that someone is oscillating between trusting them and not trusting them shouldn't come as a surprise. It might be a minor cause for frustration but it's certainly not grounds for "This person is evil, kill them!" Team Evil is much more likely to get frustrated with oscillating suspicions, because they just want the villagers to trust them, and when someone keeps going back and forth from trusting them to not, it makes them go "That's it, this person isn't worth keeping alive, because they're not actually giving us useful information!"  And believe, my oscillating trust toward you hasn't been nearly as bad as it's been for Wyrm. He and I got into a semi-heated argument/discussion about it in the PM with Ren, just before Ren died. He knows all about that. And he's still working with me. Even when he knew I didn't entirely trust him, he still worked with me, because he knew that was the best way to help the village. That is a true villager. One who stays because they know they need to. Not one who sticks the leader up on the chopping block because they don't trust them.

 

I'm going to bend to Wilson's manipulation and cast my vote toward ash. If he ends up being innocent, I'm Turning on you Wilson.

 

Three things here:

 

1. The last time I checked, stating facts bluntly didn't count as "controlling by artful, unfair, or insidious means" or "using information in a skillful way." Or maybe the definition of manipulation has changed since the last time I looked. But I don't think it has....

 

2. Don't vote for someone just because someone else does, especially if you don't think they're guilty. The last part of your post indicates that. If you really don't think he's Spiked, but you vote for him anyway, what does that say about you? You're taking the coward's way out, and that's all you've been doing this entire game, Peng. You're a better player than that. I know you are. So stop voting for wimpy reasons, and say something of substance for once.

 

3. By this reasoning, we should've killed you in LG2 after Shiv died. Or Aonar in LG4 after he killed innocent after innocent. Or Wes and I in LG6 for the same reason. Or.....I could go on, but ultimately, there's no point. Mislynches happen. That's part of the game. When they happen this late in the game, though, the reasons for the votes need to be looked. Who here has a reason for voting for Ash and has laid their reasons out?....me. Who here tacked a vote on for a wimpy reason? ....you. And you're saying I'm the suspicious one? Interesting. Your definition of suspicious is certainly convenient.

[Mailliw73]

That last line.... "I'm one of you"...

Does that mean the Tineye is one of the suspects the poem is indicating?

It doesn't sound like it to me. That line dividing that line from the list seems that the list is a separate part of the message.

 

I'm interested by the list of suspects in the Tineye message.  It would appear that the tineye was privy to the fact that Ostrich was getting coinshot, otherwise that dead men tell no tales line was a really good guess.

I agree that the list is likely a list of suspects. And, as you said, they are likely connected to the Coinshot since they knew about Ostrich's death. But, since Ostrich is clean, the Tineye obviously isn't 100% on their suspects. I would bet that at least two, if not three or four, of the Spiked are on that list though. 

 

Also, if you take the italicized, red, bold, and large word, it says, "No blood for you". I highly doubt anything secret was hidden in that though. The list is obvious enough.

 

Well, I'm sorry that I took Mail saying that Araris was mad that I CHANGED his vote to mean rioting. Wilson. you have the village in the palm of your hand, yet we haven't accomplished anything yet. I'm getting tired of your oscillating suspicion of me, and I know that you could easily be using me as a distraction. You know almost eveything now, put it all together, you should find a spiked. The fact that you haven't implies that you're spiked.

Actually, I specifically said that Araris probably didn't like his vote being soothed, not changed as you said. I used the word Soothed. While this obviously isn't concrete proof, my suspicions have been pointing to you all game. Ash.

[Lord Pifferdoo]

I am going to vote for Ash.

 

I might explain later but right now I have to go to play practice.

 

Just know that everyone who throws up these analyses gets bonus points, and when they are all put side by side in a lot of tabs, some patterns start to emerge.

[Ashiok]

Alright. At this point, I've probably made so much of a hash of things, from both misreading and miscommunicating that I don't even know where to start fixing. Therefore, I'll list suspicions, vote for myself, and call it a day. Wilson, Ash

 

Downax. He disappeared after being accused and sorta clearing up the accusation.
Peng. Wimpy bandwagoning is a good way to stay in the shadows
Wyrm. NO SAFE ROLES, and that riot from eol to him could easily have been a spiked gambit, Wounded Gazelle, I believe.

Keep an eye on Mail for me.

 

"So, it seems that the only way out of this dump is by death. Come to me, eternal night! I welcome my last breath." Ashette whispered.

[Peng the Just]

Why I haven't posted much information or analysis: firstly, I haven't been on very much. There was only one day so far where I've really had time to analyze everything. Secondly, when I've been on, I've mostly been on a tablet. My typing speed on a tablet is like thirty minutes per word instead of thirty words per minute (alright, that's an exaggeration. But still) I have about twenty minutes right now to look at things, but if I don't find anything better in that time I'm going to leave my vote on ash. I'm not voting for him arbitrarily, I think you presented some decent reasoning for it.

[the winter system]

What if the tineye is Spiked? What if he/she's messing with us? The Tineye refers to villagers as "you." The "bloodthirsty creatures" could mean spiked and he/she says he/she is one of the bloodthirsty creatures. 

[Peng the Just]

It would shock me very much if a spiked tin eye intentionally admitted to being one in a message, particularly one that has a list of suspects attached. However, Even though I don't think the tineye is admitting to being spiked, we should keep the possibility in mind.

Edit: I feel this last tineye is most likely good. What's most interesting here is that the shot on ostrich was called out by the tineye, meaning, in theory, ostrich's killer and this tineye are in league with each other. There isn't a spiked coin shot, or else there probably would have been more deaths, as I don't see any reason a spiked coinshot would have held off two cycles, and if a good coinshot had revealed himself to the spiked, he'd probably be dead by now. I feel we can trust this tineye, which means we can lend some credence to his suspect list. As for my vote, I might move it! but now I really have to go to work

Edited January 12, 2015 by jasonpenguin