Anniversary Game: In the Re-Wake of the Koloss

[Herowannabe]

Votes

(3) Lord Ostrich- Wilson, Cleo, Clancy

(3) Herwynbe- Senn, Lord Ostrich, Reeco

(1) Maill- Herwynbe

(1) Wyra- Lord Piffertiff

(1) Clancy- Peng

 

(13) No Votes- Joe, Maill, Dom, Melend, Eoladdin, Jain, Ashette, Newan, Ament, Damon, Odustren, Riew, Wyra, Larry

 

 

 

Mail(1): Wyrm 

Claincy(1): Peng 

Ostrich(5): Hero, Claincy, Wilson, Sarcomere, Wintercloud

Wyrm(1): Seonid, Pifferdoo

Hero(2): Ostrich, Seonid

 

 

Forgive the double-post, this was easier. 

 

So looking over the list, I see that:

 

Hero's vote was Rioted to Maill

Reecos vote was Rioted to Hero

 

Note that both of those were changed votes, and nobody's vote was cancelled. That means that we have two rioters and/or Mistborn who drew Zinc for today.

 

EDIT: And that those Rioters/Mistborn have a vested interest in keeping Ostrich alive, and/or wanting me or Maill dead. Very interesting. To the lab for analysis!

 

EDIT2: Whoops, missed one. Thanks to Seonid below for catching it.

Edited January 11, 2015 by Herowannabe

[Lord Pifferdoo]

Looks like someone sure wants Ostritch alive. Or they want us to think they want him alive.

[Seonid]

Wow...so a lot of people got messed with today...

 

Wyrm's vote went from Mail to nothing.

Hero's vote went from Ostrich to Mail.

Sarcomere's vote went from Ostrich to Hero.

 

Couple of possibilities here. This could either have been the work of two Emotional Allomancers or three.

 

Scenario 1 - Wyrm Rioted somebody's vote. [This requires Wyrm to be a Mistborn, as he already had Pewter earlier] Somebody else Rioted the other vote. Because of Wyrm Rioting, his vote wasn't counted and went to the 'no' pile.

 

Scenario 2 - Wyrm was Soothed. Hero and Sarcomere were Rioted. There were 3 Rioters/Soothers/Mistborn interfering tonight.

 

Now, of course, there could have been even more Rioters/Soothers/Mistborn working last night, but some hit Smoked targets, but I really don't think that a scenario involving more than 3 is plausible. Just based on probable role distributions. (Now, I guess Meta could be trolling us, and have everybody be a Rioter/Soother, but in the absence of proof to the contrary, I'm going to go with the simpler explanation.)

 

Now, Occam's Razor would suggest Scenario 1, except that it would be a stupid thing for Wyrm to do. If he were a Rioter, he wouldn't have voted for someone knowing that his vote would drop off visibly, and we could catch him in the act. So, I think I'm going to suspect option 2 for now.

 

[EDIT] - Hero, you missed that Wyrm's vote was cancelled...

 

[EDIT2] - I'm going to be off until Monday morning (my time) which is after the end of the cycle. Good luck, and hope you all make it through the night!

Edited January 11, 2015 by Seonid

[Herowannabe]

 

[EDIT] - Hero, you missed that Wyrm's vote was cancelled...

Yeah I saw that. Thanks for correcting me. The reason why is when I quoted myself it didn't put the first line (Wyrm's vote for Maill) in OOC blue, so I didn't catch it when doing comparisons. It's fixed now.

 

 

Scenario 2 - Wyrm was Soothed. Hero and Sarcomere were Rioted. There were 3 Rioters/Soothers/Mistborn interfering tonight.

 

Just want to point out that more specifically, if this scenario 2 is the case, there were 2 Rioters (or Mistborn with Zinc) and 1 Soother (or Mistborn with Brass).

 

 

What say you Wyrm, any comments/confessions you'd like to make? (Note that I'm not accusing you of anything, I'm just curious what you have to say)

Edited January 11, 2015 by Herowannabe

[Eolhondras]

A rioted vote requires the rioters vote to be cancelled, so how can we have two changes and only one cancellation?

[Seonid]

A rioted vote requires the rioters vote to be cancelled, so how can we have two changes and only one cancellation?

 

If the Rioters didn't vote, then we would see them stay in the "No Vote" category.

 

[EDIT:] I'm really off for good this time!

Edited January 11, 2015 by Seonid

[Herowannabe]

A rioted vote requires the rioters vote to be cancelled, so how can we have two changes and only one cancellation?

 

At least one of the Rioters were one of the people who didn't cast any votes. Thus, their vote went from "no vote" to "no vote"

 

EDIT: Ninja'd...   

Edited January 11, 2015 by Herowannabe

[Eolhondras]

Ah sorry, I had it in my head that you needed to have an active vote in play in order to riot someone else's.

[Unodus]

If there's been some Emotimancy going on, can we be absolutely sure it was a spiked that organized it? I mean, someone organized it so that nobody gets lynched- that kind of sounds counterproductive from Team Spikes perspective. Considering that getting a tie in votes is something the Team evil doesn't want to do- shouldn't we assume that at least one of these rioters are on our side?

Edited January 11, 2015 by Unodus

[Wyrmhero]

If I'm a Mistborn, Then it's news to me

There are only two reasons I can think of as to why my vote was Soothed: Someone was proving their ability, or they're trying to make me look like a Mistborn. The latter only makes sense if they want to pin me as Spiked when we try this again, which. certainly suggests that Ostrich is an Eliminator. It's not like Mailliw was in danger or anything.

That is a lot of manipulation there though. Thing is, I don't see why you didn't die there, Hreo. If they were a Spiked Rioter and a Mistborn, why didn't the votes double up so as to kill you, instead of just making the vote a tie? Very, very odd.

Also of import to note - since no-one else appears Soothed, then our Rioters must have not voted. So we must look around the no votes for this. This has raised my suspicions of someone, and I will be asking questions. This, incidentally, is the best reason as to why it can't have been me who Rioted - If I were a Spiked Mistborn, I would not have voted and Rioted, as that just gives my abilities away.

 

Edit: Also, looking back over the previous whole Cycle... Why did I vote for Mailliw (though I was hoping to remove that vote after he posted anyway)? He posted his reasoning the Night before. Hrm. Glad nothing came of that after all of it.

Edited January 11, 2015 by Wyrmhero

[Eolhondras]

If there's been some Emotimancy going on, can we be absolutely sure it was a spiked that organized it? I mean, someone organized it so that nobody gets lynched- that kind of sounds counterproductive from Team Spikes perspective. Considering that getting a tie in votes is something the Team evil doesn't want to do- shouldn't we assume that at least one of these rioters are on our side?

 

You're absolutely right, IF Ostrich is a Villager. If not the move makes complete sense, as the village has to waste another day lynching Ostrich while they still get their night kill. Therefore, overall the spiked come out a kill ahead then if they had done nothing.

 

In relation to the vote manipulation, of the 14 people that didn't vote, only Joe, Dom, Jasnah and Macen have been inactive, (I'm including Joe because of what he said about his homepage situation.) leaving 10. The reason I counted was because I expected a lot more people to be inactive due to their silence in the thread, and was hoping to narrow this list down significantly. All I have got out of it is frustration really, at the five or six who have been silent for 3-4 cycles. 

[Wyrmhero]

All I have got out of it is frustration really, at the five or six who have been silent for 3-4 cycles. 

 

I'm thinking it might be time for our Coinshot(s) to start taking out inactives. At the very least, Dom, Jasnah and Macen haven't posted since the start of the game, so no great loss if they die and turn out to be Villagers. It's just important that we don't waste lynches on them.

[Mckeedee123]

If there's been some Emotimancy going on, can we be absolutely sure it was a spiked that organized it? I mean, someone organized it so that nobody gets lynched- that kind of sounds counterproductive from Team Spikes perspective. Considering that getting a tie in votes is something the Team evil doesn't want to do- shouldn't we assume that at least one of these rioters are on our side?

 

Well, from this info, I would "Venture" to guess that there were two rioters and a soother involved in last night's hoopla (That or two rioters, one of which is Wyrm). If I'm not mistaken, there was a soother involved in the Day 3 result as well, however.

 

If Meta chose his eliminator roles, then 3 vote manipulators is way overpowered. As such, it's logical that the voting result was affected by the actions of one or two villagers. However:

 

 -Wyrm's vote soothed: This is just weird. It affected basically nothing. There is no rational reason why this single vote on Maill would be randomly changed. We shouldn't throw away the possibility that Wyrm is a Mistborn (spiked), because of this. It would just be so obtuse for Wyrm to riot after voting that it would be immediately discounted. I will assume however, (though I recognize I've been flip-flopping on this) that Wyrm just got soothed for some reason.

 

 -Sarcomere's vote changed from Ostrich to Hero: This was very important to the vote as a whole. The ratio from most-voted to second-most went from 5-2 to 4-3. Only one vote away from a tie or one rioter manipulation away from Hero's death.

 

 -Hero's vote changed from Ostrich to Maill: And here is that rioter manipulation. Rioting it from Ostrich to Hero himself would have been preferable if Hero was a villager, I would assume. This tie saved both Hero and Ostrich, in a way.

 

Conclusion: This vote was deliberately tied between Hero and Ostrich. This denotes 3 situations:

 

 -Wyrm is Mistborn and drew rioter, another eliminator is a rioter. Moderately likely. We have one Eliminator rioter in the No Vote section but one of them is Wyrm.

 

-Wyrm was soothed by an eliminator and there were two Eliminator rioters: This is unlikely so long as we assume that Meta didn't provide the eliminators with 3 vote manipulation roles. Or at least two and a Mistborn. We have two unkown Eliminator rioters in the No Vote section.

 

-Wyrm was soothed for some ineffable reason by a villager, and there are two Eliminator rioters/Mistborn. We have two unknown Eliminator rioters in the No Vote section.

 

(And yes, I know that I, myself, am in the No Vote section. I honestly didn't care who got lynched last round.)

 

I'd just like to say that our suspicion has been burning out a little too quickly this game. As soon as a lynch fails, (Yesterday) we just sort of move on. I'd say that this round casts extreme suspicion on both Hero and Ostrich, since they were both saved. Sure, this could just be an Eliminator double-bluff, but there's an easy way to find out if one of them is guilty. I'll be voting Hero this next round, and I hope that the voting is lopsided enough this time that rioter shenanigans can't save him again.

Edited January 11, 2015 by mckeedee123

[WeiryWriter]

I'm thinking it might be time for our Coinshot(s) to start taking out inactives. At the very least, Dom, Jasnah and Macen haven't posted since the start of the game, so no great loss if they die and turn out to be Villagers. It's just important that we don't waste lynches on them.

 

Wouldn't that only benefit the Spiked though?  At this point it is almost certain* that the inactives are Villagers, right now they are serving as an additional buffer between the Spiked and victory.  If we just kill them, aren't we just helping the Spiked get that much closer to victory?  I could see using them as targets for a coinshot proving their ability though, is that what you meant?

 

*I'm not willing to discount one of the inactives being a sleeper-Spiked who is active in the doc but not on the forums.  Probably not likely but who would expect it?

[the winter system]

It could be that both Hero and Ostrich are Eliminators. Then the spiked would want a tie between them. Voting Ostrich from the same reasons as last cycle.

[Herowannabe]

 

I'd just like to say that our suspicion has been burning out a little too quickly this game. As soon as a lynch fails, (Yesterday) we just sort of move on. I'd say that this round casts extreme suspicion on both Hero and Ostrich, since they were both saved. Sure, this could just be an Eliminator double-bluff, but there's an easy way to find out if one of them is guilty. I'll be voting Hero this next round, and I hope that the voting is lopsided enough this time that rioter shenanigans can't save him again.

 

There is a little bit of faulty logic in this. Before the vote manipulation I only had 2 votes on me, one of which was a retaliatory vote from Ostrich himself. Ostrich had 5. I wasn't in any real danger of being lynched, so therefore, the vote manipulations didn't save me, they only served to put me closer to being lynched. Ostrich was the only one who was saved.

 

 

 

It could be that both Hero and Ostrich are Eliminators. Then the spiked would want a tie between them. Voting Ostrich from the same reasons as last cycle.

This is the only way that this scenario makes sense. However, it doesn't make much sense as far as Ostrich and my votes go. We voted for each other- why would we do that if we were both eliminators? Moreover, I was the first one to vote for Ostrich, and he was the first one to vote for me, so neither of us was bandwagoning. And lastly, with at least 2 vote manipulators, if we were both spiked, why would the spiked waste a whole cycle drawing attention to their own team members, when they easily could have had anyone they wanted lynched, thanks to the large number of no-votes? Doing that may have drawn a little bit of suspicion to a few of their team members, but not as much as the Ostrich/Hero both spiked scenario. It doesn't make sense.

 

Plus, as I've said before, I know that I'm not a sp... Okay okay, I'll stop beating that drum.

 

Anyway, like Mckeedee said, I think it's highly unlikely that all of the vote manipulation was done by the Spikeds. It's more likely that one or two of the vote manipulators were villagers. Most likely 2 village manipulators and 1 spiked manipulator (or 1 and 1, if Wyrm is a mistborn who drew Zinc), because of the lack of coordination between the manipulations. 

 

I have more analysis to add, but don't have time now.

[the winter system]

Maybe the villager Emotionmancers tried to get you lynched? This makes no sense. I was just throwing out options. Last cycle was strange. One of the emotionmancers might have been a person going for a no-lynch?

[Mailliw73]

Sorry, guys, I've been sick these past couple days and havent really been able to get into this game. I'll be active again from here on out.

[Metacognition]

Okay guys, I'm getting tired of having to repeat myself, so time for a Rule Clarification! 

 

You are not allowed, in any shape or form, to copy and paste conversations from one PM to another! This is a violation of the Fair Play Rules, as you are giving outside evidence in an attempt to confirm yourself. Some players have distinct writing styles and/or specific wording that they use that can be used by other people to confirm that the message is legitimate or not or to figure out who sent you said message. It also confirms that you're being truthful about what the person said. 

 

You are allowed to paraphrase and summarize in your own words all you like, but no more copying and pasting, okay? Thanks

[A Joe in the Bush]

In relation to the vote manipulation, of the 14 people that didn't vote, only Joe, Dom, Jasnah and Macen have been inactive, (I'm including Joe because of what he said about his homepage situation.) leaving 10. The reason I counted was because I expected a lot more people to be inactive due to their silence in the thread, and was hoping to narrow this list down significantly. All I have got out of it is frustration really, at the five or six who have been silent for 3-4 cycles. 

I'm back BTW. I spent yesterday skimming the game and catching up on Oregon, but I should be able to be helpful again tomorrow.

[Mckeedee123]

There is a little bit of faulty logic in this. Before the vote manipulation I only had 2 votes on me, one of which was a retaliatory vote from Ostrich himself. Ostrich had 5. I wasn't in any real danger of being lynched, so therefore, the vote manipulations didn't save me, they only served to put me closer to being lynched. Ostrich was the only one who was saved.

 

Very well. I officially change my wording to "spared" (instead of "saved"). You were spared when you probably wouldn't have been if either you hadn't been an eliminator or the "Hero-to-Maill" riot wasn't done by a villager. It's not bulletproof reasoning, I suppose, but it's decent. More importantly, it's the only really good lead we've had since the start of the game.

Edited January 11, 2015 by mckeedee123

[little wilson]

I'd be careful, Mek. You're walking on eggshells right now with your reasoning and logic. The only "real lead" we have right now is actually Ostrich. The fact that you're tacitly defending him won't speak well of you when we lynch him tomorrow and he's spiked. I happen to trust Hero a bit. You though? The fact that you've latched onto him so much is actually kind of fascinating. Care to explain yourself more? Maybe dig your grave a little deeper?

First, though, let me explain something. We have a Soothing and two Riotings. I'm 90% certain now that the Spiked have two vote manipulators. A Soother and a Rioter. The Soothing on Wyrm is the Spiked trying to implicate him. That makes sense. The Riotings though. I'm working on those. At first, I thought that Sarc's Riot was the Spiked one. Because that was the attempt to save Ostrich. But I'm actually not sure they were really trying to save him. I think they were trying to implicate as many people as they could so when he died and was discovered as Spiked, the fingers would start pointing at Wyrm and some others. Maybe Maill. Maybe Hero. Depends on which the Spiked Riot was and which the Village Riot was.

The point is anyone who even seems like they're defending Ostrich at this point will have my eye on them as well as others' eyes. So just be careful.

[Ashiok]

Wait. Why don't we just have the coinshot zap him? Why wait for the lynch?

[little wilson]

Wait. Why don't we just have the coinshot zap him? Why wait for the lynch?

There are a few targets possible. I've got a list. I actually think I've pegged a couple spiked, but you'll see. However going after Ostrich is far too easy. The Spiked will just lurch him. Going after someone else keeps the Spiked on their toes. The Coinshot got the list. Who they picked will be revealed in a few hours.

[Ashiok]

Alrighty then. Yes, I know, I should've been active/voted yesterday, but I was too drained to pay what was going on the attention it deserved...