Orlok Tsubodai Posted February 23, 2022 Posted February 23, 2022 @Illwei, @Araris Valerian @Devotary of Spontaneity Further thoughts. Getting a pretty village read from Araris about not wanting to lose to an inactive - I feel strongly the same way. If Devotary doesn’t kill tonight, the game can run another cycle, and we functionally have a third clearance. Spitballing, but wondering whether there’s a way to do this mechanically - e.g. lynch Szeth today, and have @The Unknown Aon lurch me tonight. I can action scan one of Illwei or Araris. If I die, then TUA didn’t protect me (contingent on their activity - we’d need confirmation from them for this to work) and so made the kill. Those of you who survive (Devotary, Araris, Illwei) lynch them next cycle, Devo kills, and village + Devo win. If Szeth is the eliminator, he kills tonight, but is lynched. Issue here is Devotary doesn’t end up in the final three players without making a kill. Will keep writing my train of thought, rather than deleting the above. Consequence of Devotary needing to kill tonight is that unless we hit the eliminator with one of the lynch or Devotary’s kill, we’re going to end up tomorrow with a v/e/n lynch, giving Devotary control of who wins. Objectively, this isn’t a bad route - if I assign a 25% chance to each of Illwei, Araris, TUA and Szeth being evil, then we have a 50% chance of winning outright today, and a further 50% chance of winning tomorrow, assuming Devotary 1) doesn’t prefer the eliminators winning to the village winning, 2) chooses not to end the game with neither side winning, and 3) has no greater reason to suspect one of the two who remain over the other. Further breaking this train of thought because I’ve recalled that the interaction of Araris and my roles make action scanning two players possible. Frustratingly, this mechanically solves the game (predicated on an acceptance of v!Orlok) if Devotary didn’t need to kill today: We lynch Szeth or Illwei, have Araris swap places with the other of them, I scan Araris, and TUA protects me. If I die, it would mean TUA killed rather than protected me, and so is evil. If Araris is evil, I’ll see him making the kill. If whoever doesn’t die to the lynch is evil, I’ll see them make the kill. Had thought this worked if Devotary doesn’t kill, and we don’t lynch anyone today (now don’t think it does) - we would go into next cycle with four players, meeting Devo’s win condition, and all of the above still works, without requiring trust in me: TUA’s action is accounted for by needing to protect me. Araris’ action through swapping places, mine through scanning Araris, one of Illwei/Szeth through my scan hitting whoever Araris targets, and the other through elimination. Thinking this through, this doesn’t distinguish TUA killing someone else from protecting me, so breaks down. I think the same applies above - e!TUA could kill Araris, meaning my scan hits no one, and I then can’t distinguish mechanically TUA from whichever of Illwei/Szeth we don’t lynch. Not sure this actually is mechanically solvable - will come back to it tomorrow, but tomorrow will focus primarily on reading players.
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said: Had thought this worked if Devotary doesn’t kill, and we don’t lynch anyone today (now don’t think it does) - we would go into next cycle with four players, meeting Devo’s win condition, and all of the above still works, without requiring trust in me: To be clear, "need 3 or fewer players including me left alive" and "winnowing down the player list to two other people" means that I win when there's three or fewer players total left alive, so me + 2 villagers, me + 2 elims, or me + 1 villager + 1 elim, with the village or elims also winning in correspondence to their win cons. If I don't kill and it ends up 2-1-1 tomorrow that's an extra cycle for me compared to killing someone this cycle. Not the worst but I'd prefer not to.
Orlok Tsubodai Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: To be clear, "need 3 or fewer players including me left alive" and "winnowing down the player list to two other people" means that I win when there's three or fewer players total left alive, so me + 2 villagers, me + 2 elims, or me + 1 villager + 1 elim, with the village or elims also winning in correspondence to their win cons. If I don't kill and it ends up 2-1-1 tomorrow that's an extra cycle for me compared to killing someone this cycle. Not the worst but I'd prefer not to. I think this is a situation where it’s best to be completely transparent, and hope you show the village goodwill in response if it comes to it tomorrow - I think that’s the path most likely to lead to village victory (and with decent odds anyway with lynch+kill+tomorrow’s lynch if you do help us), rather than relying on you missing something. I’ve been assuming you would kill, as a lynch if an eliminator today, where you don’t kill, means we 3-0-1 if the lynch is before the kill in the OOA, and I didn’t think you’d risk that. The lynch cannot be after the kill, as we haven’t been missing the votes of the players who died, although I suppose they could very well be simultaneous. If you’re prepared not to kill, and we commit to not lynching, there may be a mechanical route through this. I’ll think on it tomorrow.
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said: If you’re prepared not to kill, and we commit to not lynching, there may be a mechanical route through this. I’ll think on it tomorrow. There are no vote minimums so somebody random would die to the exe, which isn't good.
Illwei Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 IIm here for killing Araris and then Devo kills szeth. TUA isn't dying. I don't get why no one else is voting. Orlok not voting for Araris furthers the Araris/Orlok team.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, Illwei said: IIm here for killing Araris and then Devo kills szeth. TUA isn't dying. I don't get why no one else is voting. Orlok not voting for Araris furthers the Araris/Orlok team. There's no Araris/Orlok team. There's no way there are still 2 elims left. And yeah, I'm decently okay with this. I'd prefer to vote you out, but a guy can't have everything.
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: And yeah, I'm decently okay with this. I'd prefer to vote you out, but a guy can't have everything. If you're okay with this plan then I'll vote for you Araris. I would appreciate it if you didn't switch with anyone so that I don't accidentally hit you with a kill.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: If you're okay with this plan then I'll vote for you Araris. I would appreciate it if you didn't switch with anyone so that I don't accidentally hit you with a kill. Yeah, I'll avoid doing that. Edit: This is surprisingly similar to how Spark died the last time I played him. A sacrifice for the sake of the village. Perhaps things will turn out better this time. Edited February 24, 2022 by Araris Valerian
Illwei Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 32 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: There's no Araris/Orlok team. There's no way there are still 2 elims left. And yeah, I'm decently okay with this. I'd prefer to vote you out, but a guy can't have everything. Why me?
Araris Valerian he/him Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 23 minutes ago, Illwei said: Why me? Because you could be elim. And I know I’m not.
Illwei Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said: Because you could be elim. And I know I’m not. And why not Orlok ? Why not Szeth ? Why not TUA ?
Araris Valerian he/him Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 22 minutes ago, Illwei said: And why not Orlok ? Why not Szeth ? Why not TUA ? I read Orlok as village, Szeth is getting NKed, and TUA is a regular.
Orlok Tsubodai Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 6 hours ago, Illwei said: IIm here for killing Araris and then Devo kills szeth. TUA isn't dying. I don't get why no one else is voting. Orlok not voting for Araris furthers the Araris/Orlok team. I’m not voting for anyone yet because I’m trying to work this out for myself at LyLo. I’m also increasingly village reading Araris this cycle, although I’m not committed to v!Araris. I’m struggling with how much you’re pushing e!Orlok, however. I suspect this is v-v-v at this point between Araris, you and I, but will vote on Illwei for now - Araris this cycle has been willing to accept his own death at LyLo, has expressed the very same sentiment re inactives I feel, and isn’t pushing e!Orlok, which I’m genuinely confused by from Illwei.
Illwei Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 (edited) @The Unknown Aon @Szeth_Pancakes Can you guys come comment on anything here? @Orlok Tsubodai I don't see where you aren't getting my suspicion on you, and I don't get why i'm your vote here because of it. Even specifically that post you just posted. You think everyone is village here? but you'll vote on me? How am i supposed to think that a villager says that? And Araris is a villager for accepting his death at lylo? Lol. That just. that's not a villagery thing to do. I don't even know how to elaborate more on this for you. Like all your posts this cycle just come from an insane perspective in my opinion. You don't vote on anyone until now, and you end up on me when it makes no sense. It's like you're forgetting that I was nightkilled. it's like you're forgetting how I pushed Stick D1. it's like...you're idk. You just called us all village and then voted me. How am I supposed to village read that? EDIT: Quote Matrim's Dice (5): Experience, Ashbringer, Karnatheon, Archer, _Stick_, JNV, Thaidakar the Ghostblood Karnatheon (2): Kasimir, Araris Valerian, Tani, Amanuensis _Stick_ (5): >>Illwei<<, Matrim's Dice, StrikerEZ, Devotary of Spontaneity Here's the D1 VC for you I'm voting Araris because I acknowledge that no one will vote for you. Heck, no one is even voting for Araris. No one is here. Edited February 24, 2022 by Illwei
Orlok Tsubodai Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Illwei said: @The Unknown Aon @Szeth_Pancakes Can you guys come comment on anything here? @Orlok Tsubodai I don't see where you aren't getting my suspicion on you, and I don't get why i'm your vote here because of it. Even specifically that post you just posted. You think everyone is village here? but you'll vote on me? How am i supposed to think that a villager says that? And Araris is a villager for accepting his death at lylo? Lol. That just. that's not a villagery thing to do. I don't even know how to elaborate more on this for you. Like all your posts this cycle just come from an insane perspective in my opinion. You don't vote on anyone until now, and you end up on me when it makes no sense. It's like you're forgetting that I was nightkilled. it's like you're forgetting how I pushed Stick D1. it's like...you're idk. You just called us all village and then voted me. How am I supposed to village read that? EDIT: Here's the D1 VC for you I'm voting Araris because I acknowledge that no one will vote for you. Heck, no one is even voting for Araris. No one is here. I’m voting on you because I know that Szeth is being killed tonight. If I v!read TUA, and Szeth is being killed, I then need to make a judgement on which of Araris and yourself is more suspicious - it doesn’t matter that Szeth is more suspicious than either of you - they’re not a factor, as they’ll be dead either way. If they’re the eliminator, the game is won regardless. Consequently, I can think this is v-v-v (with TUA v and Szeth e), and still vote for one of Araris or yourself, provided I think more strongly that TUA is v than one of the two of you. This isn’t a normal Lylo, because of Devo’s kill, and so think Araris’ accepting his death is consistent with being a villager, if he believes Szeth to be the eliminator. I think e!Araris would be fighting tooth and nail to stay alive - as if they survive this lynch, and Devo kills v!Szeth, then with the eliminator kill, they’re at 1-1-1 next cycle. I don’t feel strongly either way between Araris and yourself. I had forgotten that you pushed Stick D1, although I don’t think you being attacked is enough to clear you. I’ll reread your interactions with Stick D1. I also need to look again at STINK’s defence of Araris last cycle. @The Unknown Aon, could you protect whichever of Illwei, Araris or myself you think is most likely to be attacked tonight? If you genuinely believe I’m the eliminator, Illwei, please reread C3, and my interactions with Archer. I maintain that I believe they ought to convince you otherwise. My perspective this cycle comes from having made a monumental screw up with STINK last cycle, having put more effort into trying to solve the game than is healthy.
|TJ| he/him Posted February 24, 2022 Author Posted February 24, 2022 VC: Araris Valerian (2): Illwei, Devotary of Spontaneity Illwei (1): Orlok Tsubodai Szeth_Pancakes (1): Araris Valerian
The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 (edited) I think I want to vote on Araris, since I'm vil, Szeth is going to be vig killed, and Orlok seems very villagery, if kinda tunneling on Illwei. Edited February 24, 2022 by The Unknown Aon Color
Araris Valerian he/him Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 Guess I’ll switch from Szeth to Illwei. A tie here can’t hurt me.
Orlok Tsubodai Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 14 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: Guess I’ll switch from Szeth to Illwei. A tie here can’t hurt me. I don’t think there is a tie, unless you’re claiming vote manipulation?
Orlok Tsubodai Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 Going to cement this regardless. Araris.
|TJ| he/him Posted February 24, 2022 Author Posted February 24, 2022 Cycle Eight - The Epic Wears Prada The Diary of a WiMP-y Kid Entry - Last And then it was over. I understood, of course. The extreme sense of pride in giving up your life to save your friends. But it didn't make it any less scary. I knew I had to go and I didn't hesitate. I was lucky, I was supposed to be gone quite a while ago, but was too late to sacrifice myself to save Mordred. This time, it'll have to do. Goodbye, cruel little world. I hope Alexis brings a tiny bit of peace into it. Goodbye... Spark O'toole Araris Valerian was eliminated! He was the Reckoner Ally Epic - Walk in My Pradas [WiMP]! The Unknown Aon was killed! He was the Regular Converted Corrupted Epic - Ironwall! Vote Count: Araris Valerian (5): Illwei, The Unknown Aon, Devotary of Spontaneity, Orlok Tsubodai Illwei (1): Araris Valerian Quote Walk in My Pradas (WiMP): You know what they say, right? “You've gotta walk a thousand miles in my shoes to see what it’s like to be me”? Well you can do exactly that. Switch places with a player. All actions targeting you affect them and vice versa. Quote Protect: You can protect a player you choose, but you cannot self-protect. You cannot protect the same player in consecutive cycles. Note: This is the only conversion in the game. There are no more Converted Epics, nor is there a possibility of any more conversions to occur. Cycle 8 has begun and will end on February 26, at 22:30 IST [GMT + 05:30]. Please try to bold your votes, and give retractions in green. @Szeth_Pancakes gets warned for inactivity. Player List: Spoiler @Illwei Matrim's Dice - Orion Knighthawk Scientist Experience - Emfatic Reckoner Ally Epic - D-Coy Kasimir - Mordred Kasjek Reckoner Ally Epic - Cobb StrikerEZ - Nathaniel Walker Reckoner Ally Epic - Prestige The Unknown Aon - Apocalypse Regular Converted Corrupted Epic - Ironwall Araris Valerian - Spark O'toole Reckoner Ally Epic - Walk in My Pradas [WiMP] Ashbringer Reckoner Ally Epic - Santa Klaus Tani - Ricochet Reckoner Ally Epic - Robbin' Hood Karnatheon - Pendulum @Devotary of Spontaneity - Sonia Biven Archer - Skmurph Corrupted Epic - Incinerator STINK Corrupted Epic - Shadowtrap _Stick_ Corrupted Epic - Annihilation @Szeth_Pancakes MintSilverTea - Zehpyr Regular Reckoner Ally JNV - Eiro Regular Reckoner Ally Amanuensis - Blink Regular Reckoner Ally Thaidakar the Ghostblood - Endrik Reckoner Ally Epic - Bullseye @Orlok Tsubodai - Locke Dannnex - Joe Reckoner Ally Epic - Big Bully BroncoBuster 5
Illwei Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 Well that was the other option I remember voicing a few cycles back Devotary
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 TUA was around to kill someone but didn't. No elim kill at all in fact so I'll go with Szeth because he was inactive.
Illwei Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 Devo can you explain your role again and Wincon?
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