Araris Valerian

Honestly, this is tempting, and I even thought of offering it to you when writing my previous post. I guess I’m curious what other folks think. And honestly, I’d like to hear more comprehensive thoughts from @CoderDrag0n8, @RoyalBeeMage, @The Unknown Hammerer, and @STINK. If I’m wrong about Hoid, it’s going to be one of you that convinces me, not Joe. And if I’m wrong, you need to convince me, or we lose. Unless you think I’m evil of course, but I don’t think anyone actually has an elim read on me right now. Do we know TwinStorm hit Hoid, or is that your guess? Because I’m not giving any credit to CD for getting wounded. Honestly, I’d be interested in a scenario where e!Hoid got wounded by a teammate, but I don’t see a WGG on CD as likely. To the folks talking about Crimson Pots, you can intentionally wound yourself by crafting the lowest level, given my reading of the rules. You don’t make a pot or target anyone, you just hurt yourself.

STINK and RBM are likely your teammates, though I’ll consider a world where #3 is TUH instead of RBM. In the e!Hoid world you proposed, I find it odd that all 3 elims voted on TOW during D2, when Hoid only had 2 votes. That seems at least as weird as you and STINK both voting on Hoid during the same day. I’m not convinced that TwinStorm would have been pocketed by that result. Maybe I’m just too prone to bussing as an elim, but IMO a competent elim team should occasionally vote for itself to distance. And the healing doesn’t really say much. I wanted to heal Hoid regardless of his alignment. I’ll grant that if Hoid is elim, these are probably his teammates. That still leaves me wondering who chucked a pot at him, and why they never claimed. And why a second pot got chucked at CD of all people. From my perspective, any pot attack against a villager today needs all villagers to support the healing. Prior to today, I was advocating to exe CD, so the attack on him looks like it aimed to use my lack of support to end the game in favor of the elims. I can see the Doc kill coming from a Hoid team. But I’m not so sure about the Penguin kill, or the Belandrius one. Edit: Really what this is coming down to is that I have a very strong village read on Hoid. His engagement with me despite my initial antagonism, his unwillingness to let a train sit unopposed, and an apparent lack of strategy are all pointing at him as a villager. I’ll do some rereading (focused on Hoid’s potential teammates), but that’s where I’m at now. Edit 2: Now might be a good time to claim our actions. I know Joe advocated for that early on in the game, but at ExLo it can’t really hurt us. The only notable night action I took was attempting and failing to sprout a novice sunlight pot on Belandrius during N2. I forgot my N3 action. I have lots of sunlight things, so I’m either going to see what happens when you incur the failure, or reveal someone’s alignment on D5. The former being 15 times more likely .

Maybe a cleaner win for the elims, and a "clean" death for the village, but I don't really give much weight to either of those. What is your evidence that Hoid is elim? Can you provide an explanation for why e!Hoid would have switched off of TwinStorm and onto me, the player advocating for his village alignment the most, at the end of D3? Really the only argument I'm getting for Hoid being elim is that he was up for the exe D2. Which is pretty sad given all that's happened in the meantime. Given the low amount of evidence pointing toward e!Hoid, why should we have given up 48 hours of discussion time to risk losing if he's village? Also, why hasn't the "villager" that wounded Hoid claimed? If someone gives me a convincing argument, I could probably be persuaded to vote for Hoid. Yeah, I'd need a fair bit to be persuaded. But nobody really seems to be engaging with the points I'm bringing up. Edit: And if anyone thinks I'm a villager, you need to convince me to vote with you, or the village vote will be split and the elims win.

The elims would know that if they got off a mis-exe on D3 then they'd only need one more. At that point, trust is the most valuable commodity, and I trusted (and still trust) Hoid. It's a losing play for the e!Hoid to make that switch, especially because if his move caused me to flip village instead, he'd essentially guarantee being on the chopping block D4.

Can you explain to me why, after I’ve championed Hoid as my strongest village read, e!Hoid moves to execute me on D3? Because it totally fits with a paranoid villager. That, along with the PM we had, is the starting point for my analysis. Also, if Hoid is elim, why didn’t the villager that targeted him claim? Why did a villager use a Crimson pot in the first place when it would make us lose our ExLo day turn on a misfire? I understand that for you to be a villager, Hoid has to be elim. But I think my stance should be pretty obvious. I also think the attack on CD was meant to appeal to me, since I’ve spent most of the game advocating for his death.

I’m pretty sure the elims are the ones using the crimson pots. A villager would claim to have done it. Not gonna lie, I was about to reconsider Belandrius for the exe, so I can’t really complain about his death. Let’s start off by assuming Hoid is village. Given that, the elims would win if Hoid died to the pot. Pretty sure the kill on Belandrius was because he didn’t have the sort of thread presence to warrant using Roseite on him. So the elims would obviously have an incentive to argue to not save him. But they also wouldn’t want to out themselves by being the only people to not vote to save him. With that in mind, I propose that exactly 1 of the 5 people that voted to save Hoid is elim. If it were 2, they could have removed their votes and killed him to win the game. Not counting myself, that means exactly 1 of (RBM, CD, TUH) is elim. The other two elims are Joe and STINK. So probably not TUH unless the elims just all voted for Hoid D2. RBM voted to save Hoid after he was already saved, which isn’t a good look. So we should save CD. Or Hoid is elim. So basically we should exe Joe, STINK, or Hoid today, and any other votes don’t make much sense. I’m honestly pretty confident Joe is elim at this point. From my perspective, e!Hoid had me pocketed and wouldn’t have switched the D3 votes onto me, so anyone who wants to convince me to vote on him needs to explain that to me. @Hoid Slayer Thoughts on my analysis/can you explain your TUH vote?

These don't work on the NK, which doesn't require the elim to leave their cabin.

Maybe Hoid, CD, and I are the elims (this would be a fun team, wish it were so).

Hoid. As much as it pains me to save someone that has tried to kill me twice, I’d rather not have him die to a pot. Not only do I have a village read on him (why does e!Hoid try to exe me when I have him as my strongest village read?), but there are plenty of folks that could be on the elim team together. With TwinStorm flipping village, the elims have more incentive to spread their D2 votes. I think that puts Belandrius back on the table, so the team could be anything you’d get by picking 1 from each set: (TUH, STINK, Joe), (RBM, CD), Belandrius, or maybe 2 elims voted for TwinStorm. Not to mention that if we save Hoid, the worst case is we get an extra 48 hours of discussion and an extra village flip. Also, why was I an exe candidate last cycle? Isn’t CD at least 2 orders of magnitude more suspicious than I am? It would be nice if the user of the Crimson pot could claim (unless they did and I missed it). That would be another data point to consider.

None of this is new btw, it’s what I said in my analysis post earlier in the day.

I’ve got you, CD, and STINK as my top 3 elim candidates. Joe and Hoid are village based on their contributions. RBM is uncertain but slightly village. Belandrius is slight village based on the Penguin kill. TUH would be a possible swap for STINK as 3rd elim.

Given that from my perspective, I’ve given my thoughts on everything notable that has happened up to this point (both NKs, the D2 vote, and the comments since), could you elaborate? What specific events would you like me to analyze? I have (admittedly weak) reads on everyone in the game. I mean, it’s easy as an elim to fake concern about accidentally exeing a villager, and moving your vote around a bunch as a result. And in a v/v/v world, the village doesn’t really gain anything from votes moving between the targets.

Just because the answer is obvious doesn’t mean it’s wrong. Between TwinStorm and Hoid I’d definitely prefer TwinStorm. And I’d much rather vote CD than Hoid. Not quite sure why TwinStorm and Hoid have to be v/e though. I proposed the possibility of a v/v/v situation occurring D2, and haven’t seen a solid argument against it. @TwinStorm why are you so convinced that Hoid is elim, and what are your thoughts on CD?

You should pay more attention. This happens literally every game and is part of my village strategy. Also, you might have better luck listing the folks you think suspect me and asking them if they would be willing to join your vote. Edit: I feel like there is a non-zero chance the dead doc would be more engaging than the thread has been today.

That’s because the player list has character names, rather than usernames. You’d see some familiar names if you scrolled down a bit.

Basically the action economy doesn't lend itself to a small elim team (which most games run into if the NK uses an action slot)

I meant MR 74. I'm getting those two mixed up in my head. This. 2-person elim teams are really hard to balance in any game, and are very swingy (one of them dies and the other has to kill just about everyone else on their own) so my recommendation would be to assume 3 unless you have good reason to do otherwise. Simply put, villagers earn trust by solving. Elims can only do that so much before having to fake it or bus a teammate. Therefore, any mechanical ways to earn trust inherently lend themselves to the elim team.

So TUH probably belongs in the "experienced" list in the sense that he's a threat in his own right. And STINK is certainly experienced, even if he hasn't played much recently. Honestly, the Penguin kill is giving me MR 74 vibes. I feel like that especially implicates CD as someone who would be concerned about Penguin's threat as a villager. Neither xino nor KSauce are playing this game, and TOW already flipped village, so he's the only one left in that pool. And of course myself, TUH, Hoid, and Twinstorm also played that game, so that could fit with Twinstorm being a CD teammate. I'm a little surprised to see you espousing your theory of unnatural survival after LG 107 . There were several heavy-hitting villagers that game that the elims took their sweet time getting to.

Things I'm noticing during my reread: TOW mentioned (jokingly) that he had a goal of voting out Doc this game. Probably should have taken that into consideration during the D2 vote RBM suggested that I should hop on the Twinstorm train. That suggests RBM isn't teamed with Twinstorm I like Joe's vote on CD Not really a fan of how Twinstorm pushes back against Joe or v!reads CD Rereading Penguin's interactions with Twinstorm doesn't really make Twinstorm look that good CD also defends Twinstorm against TOW I'm feeling like a CD/Twinstorm elim pair is plaubile after that reread. The claim of passing a zephyr spore seems a bit weird if they are e/e though. Taking that into account, it would seem more likely that CD is the elim than Twinstorm (from my perspective, elims stand to gain more from passing spores, at least early on). At this point I'm not really considering a RBM/Twinstorm e/e pair. I will say that for all the pushback against poke votes that TwinStorm did D2, he didn't really do much to guide the discussion in a different direction. I feel like if I were in that position as a villager, I'd point out specific things people should be focusing on (the Doc kill, for example), rather than vaguely gesturing that they exist. Like Penguin said, it reads overly defensive. I'm getting generally positive vibes from Joe and TUH, and while those are weak reads, they suggest that STINK is the most likely elim on the Hoid Slayer train. In summary: Given my village read of Hoid and the large number of votes that ended on TOW, TwinStorm is worth considering as an elim Twinstorm had negative interactions with Penguin, who was NK'd, and I agree with Penguin's perspective in those posts The Twinstorm/CD interactions are positive/reinforcing, which suggests they could be elim together, though the claim of zephyr passing doesn't really fit this RBM doesn't make a lot of sense as a TwinStorm teammate STINK seems least village of the Hoid voters TS/CD/STINK is my current proposed elim team

(5) ThatOneWorldhopper: Hoid Slayer, Araris Valerian, CoderDrag0n8, TwinStorm, RoyalBeeMage, (3) Hoid Slayer: STINK, A Jo in the Bush, The Unknown Hammerer (2) TwinStorm: IcedOutPenguin, Belandrius Ohhmar That's the D2 vote count with flips in green. I've italicized myself, and also Hoid because either he's doing an excellent job pocketing me in our PM or he's actually just village. Alright, for now I'm going to drop Belandrius from the POE, since the NK left him as the only unflipped player voting for TS. I doubt all 3 elims voted together, since I read Hoid as village and he was the second-largest train. From there, things diverge a bit, but not a ton, based on whether TS is village. If TS is elim, then likely one of CD/RBM is as well. If not, then it's kind of hard to say, and we might even want to go back and reconsider Belandrius. Also, Joe looks slightly better in the e!TS world, since he's pushing for either Hoid or TS to die today. I'll drop a vote on CD for now, since I think it's reasonable to count 2 elim out of the 5 players voting for TOW, and I'm not committed to a TS exe today. My next analysis will be looking back at TS, RBM, and CD's posts from D1 and (mostly) D2.

Back in his cabin, Armiel surveys the collection of foodstuffs he was able to get from the market. A small sack of oranges, suitable for flavoring a morning’s porridge. A rather large selection of smoked salmon, apparently a specialty of Erik Island. There was an empty milk jug, since it wouldn’t have kept fresh for more than a day in these conditions. And a small, sealed jar that had been an especially good bargain. He’d have to figure out the best use for that particular ingredient.

I was using “pot” in the cooking sense, not in the “spore pot” sense. In other words, grow the Roseite in the shape of a cook pot. I doubt it would help, but Armiel has no idea what he’s doing and is willing to experiment a bit for better results (and flavors).

Armiel is interested in the thermal properties of Roseite (notably, whether using a Roseite pot would make it harder to burn food).

Armiel was surprised to hear complaints about the coffee. Not only was he acting on the quartermaster's orders, but the drink (nasty as it tasted to him) was something of a luxury. And it wasn't like he was forcing food down anyone's throat. A fellow could probably dump their portion over the ship's railing with nobody the wiser.

Armiel carried a tray with mugs of weak coffee to the deckhands on duty. Normally coffee would be a luxury reserved for the officers, but Fort was distributing it a bit more liberally, explaining that given the current crisis, it would be in everyone's best interest to be alert. He'd tried a sip himself, but the drink was so bitter he'd spit it out. Fort had helpfully informed him that for once the bad taste was not a result of overcooking, but just how coffee normally tasted.