Araris Valerian

Like I said in my last post, Biplet claimed Smoker to me. This is pretty much exactly where I am with TJ. Honestly TUO is probably the last of the Thug claims that I'd vote out. I'm also not a huge fan of this thread participation but I generally have a village read on him from our PM.

Okay, I don’t really know about TJ, but I’m currently doing some rethinking. I’m trying to avoid outing people’s roles as much as possible, but I’d like outside opinions on this one. Biplet claimed Smoker to me in response to me claiming to have Seeked her as a regular. My initial reaction was to think an elim Smoker would just claim vanilla, hence my strong village read on Bip. But I don’t really see why the village needs a Smoker when it also has a Soother and a Seeker, and the elims seem lacking in similar roles. On a side note, I’ve obtained roleclaims from everyone, and (perhaps obviously) nobody has claimed vote manip. I would guess that at least one Thug is lying about their role, but I’m not sure if Walin/TUO/KSauce being a Soother/Rioter makes this distro any more sensible. Alternatively, at least one Thug is probably evil, since Thugs have an open action slot for the NK. Well, I don’t trust myself.

@|TJ| what are your thoughts on the Thugs? Do you think the elims would have a Thug? I'm kinda working with a 3-person elim team right now. Mistborn/Soother/Thug or Mistborn/Soother/Lurcher both seem reasonable with a village Coinshot. I just don't really see a way in which a village Seeker, village Lurcher, and village Coinshot/Mistborn can coexist with 2-3 village Thugs. Which means the elims probably have a Mistborn that pulled Steel (or a CS that held off to confuse us). That frees up the last slot to be a Smoker, though I'm not 100% sure the elims would have one of those. Honestly wish whoever took the shot last night would claim, that would make sorting through this a lot easier. @Sart I'd really like to hear your thoughts/tunes as well, since you're a bit of an unknown quantity for me right now.

I was assuming both were elim kills, honestly. Also, it seems like the Thugs have all been pretty liberal with their claims, so it could be the case that the elims already had a bunch of people they didn't want to attack. Doc makes sense as a kill because he was active in PMs with every other player. That's a lot of potential information for the village.

@StrikerEZ, are Coinshot/Spiked kills distinguished in these rules? Nope. This might be hard without an actual roleclaim from Bip, which I'm not going to do on her behalf. I'm also not going to say my take here is infallible, it's just better than what I have for other players. Mentioning a connection then just looks like solving without actually contributing anything. IMO the comment could come from either perspective, and works for e!Sart particularly if the two of you are on a team (of course, I'm a bit skeptical of that since you voted together D1).

As my actual role. Could you elaborate? I can see an elim making a statement like that, especially if you two are on a team together. TOW flips village and then he gets to ignore you. I really don’t like this. KSauce was attacked, Biplet claimed to me in response to my Seeker gambit, and then there’s me. I have strong reason to village read every single person you are suspicious of.

Well, from the various folks that have claimed to me there are at least 3 thugs this game. So a gambit isn’t completely off the table.

Oof. Well, Doc scanned me N1. If anyone wants to contest that claim feel free. Everyone probably realizes now that I’m not a Seeker. My current list of suspicions from most to least: TJ Sart Walin TUO Twinstorm Biplet KSauce If we assume the elims were involved in the D1 exe, then it’s pretty likely Sart or TJ is elim. I’m honestly not sure which I’m more suspicious of. Sart noted in his D2 post Doc’s activity level, which could be tied to the NK on Doc. KSauce is at the bottom for getting attacked, and Biplet for the same PM reasons I mentioned previously. If I had to guess I’d say the elims have a Mistborn that pulled Steel, but it could be a village Mistborn or a Coinshot that didn’t shoot N1. I don’t really see why a village Coinshot would attack KSauce though. I have roleclaims from Biplet, TwinStorm, KSauce, and Walin (some of these were passed on to me via Doc). It would be nice if the remaining folks could PM me their roles; having a clearer picture of the distro can’t hurt right now.

Well, time to rethink our assumptions. I'm a bit surprised that there is a village Oracle, I would have thought that would be more of an elim-leaning role (mostly for retaliation against Seekers).

We are just about halfway through the turn, does anyone have a reason we shouldn't exe Worldhopper? Edit: I'd like to hear from Worldhopper himself, who his greatest suspects are, and if he has a thought on why someone would try to save him from the exe last turn.

Alright, KSauce. I think that Worldhopper was saved by an elim Soother or maybe a rioter that accidentally canceled out Aeoryi's Soothe. For example, if Aeoryi soothed myself or Bip, and an elim non-voter (KSauce/TUO/Walin) Rioted one of Aeoryi/Doc/Kidpen onto Twinstorm, that would give us a matching VC. Similar thing could have happened with the votes on Kidpen instead. If we assume that Aeoryi would have Soothed to kill Worldhopper and the elims would have Rioted to save him, there's a 50/50 chance that the end result looks like a single soothe. Of course, Rioter is pretty strong for the elims, so maybe Aeoryi just didn't soothe and the elims do have a Soother. I wish I had access to Aeoryi's reasoning, and confirmed good =/= confirmed right, but that's another data point to take into consideration. If Worldhopper is elim, I'd guess at either TJ or Sart as a second elim, with a slight lean toward Sart. There may be reason to think we have 3 of them, if there are enough village power roles floating around. In that case I'd place my money on Walin as the third. Currently via PMs I have village reads on Doc (decent), Biplet (decent), and TUO (limited).

I'm going to drop a placeholder vote on Kaladin (let me know if you have a preferred nickname), later I'll summarize my thoughts on the day/night.

Please join my vote on TwinStorm. Their opportunistic vote on Walin still stands out as the most suspicious behavior of anyone this turn. If it makes you feel better, I could retract my vote, you could recreate the tie, and then I could be the tiebreaker instead of you .

I’m not comfortable exeing TwinStorm if the only person voting with me is Kidpen.

I’ll probably hop over to Kidpen if nobody joins me on TwinStorm, but I would prefer an exe on TwinStorm of the two.

Join me on TwinStorm? Just under 2 hours until rollover btw.

To clarify my stance on this; I’m opposed to bandwagoning as such on D1. The main problems with it are that it can stifle discussion, since one player dramatically leading in votes means nobody else has to worry about dying, and that placing a vote explicitly to bandwagon frequently has the effect of causing the earlier voters to retract. In fact, this behavior is so common I used it as an elim to defuse a train on a teammate (Sart, if I recall correctly). My comments about vote manip really were intended for how the votes should look at the end of the day. As TwinStorm said, we should spread out for a bit to draw as many folks into discussion as possible, but some consolidation in the last hour or two is still worthwhile. TJ. Somewhat ironically, I’m currently most suspicious of TwinStorm now. The vote on Walin seems to me like grabbing low-hanging fruit, so to speak. I’m curious what folks think of Kidpen’s vote on TJ. On one hand, it could be an elim trying to secure an exe on a villager. On the other hand, the reasoning given suggests a player that didn’t go back and read the motivation behind the initial votes, which could be a village tell.

It's either a ploy, an exaggeration, or she picked up on tell I don't know about. Or overconfidence, since I've played a few games where players expressed similar opinions without much reasoning given (even later on). I'm of the opinion that you can almost never find elims D1 except by accident, though those accidents do happen, and we have to force the elims to engage or we'll never make any progress.

Aralis holds up his walking stick warningly. The polished wood is quite sturdy, and to anyone paying attention, it's clear he doesn't need it to stay on his feet. "That was not a intended as a slight toward you, though you might know better than I do. No, I was referring to both of the folks I have proposed we remove so we can get this foolishness about the supposed Spiked out of the way as soon as possible."

Aralis surprisingly is not annoyed by the accompaniment, and would prefer not to kill folks with some character over others.

Twinstorm. I’ll vote on TJ.

I’m very skeptical that we have a Coinshot on either side of this game, because as you say it would make things go a lot faster. I thinking there could well be more than one vanilla player, it just depends on how a striker was feeling when he cooked up the distribution. The main thing roles-wise to be concerned about right now is eliminator vote manipulation. It would be best to aim for a 2-vote margin to deny the elims the ability to disrupt things (and I’d suggest village Soothers/Rioters use their abilities to support the current execution target).

Welcome back! I'm sure we played some games together back then. I haven't really gotten to play for most of the last year, so I'm also not completely up to speed on the current trends. I would like to get to know the newer folks, so feel free too shoot me a PM. I may get around to sending a few of my own, but I'll have more time for that during the week than over the weekend. Aralis says hi back, and whacked said soldier with his staff. Didn't seem prudent to go much further given the current circumstances. This whole crisis is probably a noble scam to get out from under Elend's rule and oppress the skaa again. I'm going to start off by voting on Twinstorm for not having a character name.

I'll play as Aralis, who still doesn't believe in the existence of Spiked.

@Experience, you are next on the LG list. If you don't want the slot, Striker will take the next game.