Araris Valerian

@ThatOneWorldhopper @IcedOutPenguin Are y’all content to sit on side trains and not participate in the exe in any relevant way? If not, I’d ask you to change your votes to either BBB or CD. Or engage with Hoid if you really don’t like me, I guess. Edit: If v!BBB exes himself and that leads to a misexe on me tomorrow I’m gonna be kinda miffed because this game is super winnable. Edit 2: I could knock a vote off of BBB but it would require voting alongside Hoid…

And I’d prefer KSauce of these two, though that probably isn’t going to change the mind of anyone relevant.

To clarify, Penguin is in my village category right now, along with you and TOW. I could be wrong, and Aman made some valid points in regards to him, but for now I am going to stand by my read of suboptimal village play. But it's blatantly false that I haven't been making accusations. I accused Doc and BBB at the start of the day, fired back at Aman, and am currently actively involved in a train on CD. I went after Penguin C1 and C2. I tried to get KSauce killed last cycle. You and TOW are practically the only people I haven't accused at this point. I'm happy exeing any of CD, BBB, KSauce, and Doc today. Probably in roughly that order. My only concern with the current state of the votes is that CD, BBB, and KSauce are all voting on BBB. But if the team is BBB/KSauce/CD then I don't really think they have a choice here other than bussing given the rather complete lack of village reads on them. I'm not quite sure what you mean by "slip up" here. Villagers generally can't "slip up", because they aren't hiding or scheming. They are just throwing around random votes and seeing what sticks, then looking for patterns. Was in the middle of writing this when Aman posted, but I basically agree with his post and think we are in e!CD world, not entirely sure about BBB.

You’ll find that I am pretty good at avoiding NKs. But more importantly: Why are we even asking these questions right now? There are 3 elims, so even if one of myself/Aman is elim, we’d have 2 teammates to find as well. If you don’t think CD or BBB are our partners, then who are the other elims? I will say that if I had to redo my suspicions post I’d probably swap Doc into the neutral category and KSauce into the exe category. Which makes me more confident in voting CD over BBB, though they could be e/e still, and just bussing.

Coder, BBB, and KSauce are all low seniority, so right now CD is getting exed.

If it gives you a better read of me, I got Bondsmith’s breath, and my current order is to move Truthwatcher (alignment scan) to the top of the list. Of course, we have to catch an elim for that to kick in before the game ends, but I think we can pull it off.

CD is the most senior Windrunner priest, so BBB is getting exed at the moment

Hey, I specifically didn’t vote you this cycle or try and focus discussion around you while you were gone. My suspicion of you came mostly from looking at the vote counts. If I’m village, then either all the elims that voted C2 voted on TwinStorm (which says something about KSauce and BBB), or you are an elim. Which I suppose is consistent with your vote on KSauce.

This seems a bit melodramatic given that only 2 people were voting on you (I think, not actually sure what the VC is right now). This also seems to be overstated. We’ve had 2 exes so far, and they were both basically random candidates from C1. Notably, Hoid, Aman, and myself haven’t reached a consensus on who to exe. We’re talking things out, because we all want to solve the game (or are at least making a good effort at looking like we do). I will say, if Aman and I are elims together than y’all are toast.

This math doesn’t quite work from your perspective, but presumably all the other villagers trust both you and themselves. That leaves 9-2=7 players of unknown alignment for all of us. KSauce presumably has 2 teammates. Thoughts on who they might be?

Let's do some napkin math. Suppose everyone agrees that Hoid is village. Counting themselves, that leaves 7 players of unknown alignment, of which 3 are elims. So if we vote totally at random on folks, we have almost a 50% chance of catching an elim. And we're not voting at random. We have 2 vote counts and 2 NKs to look at, plus a bunch of posts everyone has made. I'd say we have a 60-70% chance of hitting an elim this cycle. And even if we miss, the odds get way better next cycle. How does that add up to your conclusion? (I'll note in the improbable 4 elim world then that just boosts our odds of hitting one of them this cycle) Curious what folks' thoughts on the following interaction between CD and BBB are: It looks kinda performative to me for end of cycle voting. The initial vote on BBB sounds sincere and not like a poke. Then CD realizes that BBB already has a vote on him, so he backs off and "clarifies". And then after BBB gives justification, CD switches to TwinStorm.

Please elaborate, or otherwise I'll assume you mean that everyone Aman, Hoid, and myself have named as a potential elim is actually a villager.

Hmm, I can’t speak to Aman, but my read of him improved when he brought up the Gaia kill. I think both of us would be unlikely to make that choice but either of us would have been happy to take out Polly last cycle. See, I disagree (and I think Aman would too). We both respect each other’s abilities enough to hold off on a final judgement, but we aren’t going to derail the thread over our suspicions. Between the three of us, we could pick basically anyone and get them exed. I don’t see that as a winning scenario for the elims.

Just for the record, I don't think I've ever actually pulled a late game fear train (feel free to correct me if I have). I'm going to switch from BBB to CD. Mostly because I don't think anyone has actually voted on CD today but I've really been rubbed wrong by his posts.

But this is just because Doc wouldn't respond to votes this cycle. I think there are 2 possible approaches to the exe today. Either you and I brawl (fits with your doc distro proposal and the C1 votes on TUH), or we exe in BBB/Doc/CD. I challenge anyone to say that the latter group of 3 is clean.

Given the way the thread is playing out right now, do you think it's a winning move for the elims to sit back as inactives? I'm pretty sure I don't kill Gaia C1 either. It's bad precedent if the mods kill returning players C1. Though I will admit to being brutal regardless of alignment.

I'm slightly injured that you thought you could pull something like that on me My Doc read comes from his votes. It's basically a guaranteed that at least one C1 vote on TwinStorm was elim, just by the numbers. During C2, I would assume elims would want to avoid a TwinStorm exe if possible, or at least to distance themselves from it. Doc is the only person (other than myself) that fits in that category. Also, I'm now thinking that if you are village then one of Penguin, TOW, or Hoid is elim.

Well, I just went through a minor panic attack related to CD being an elim and getting Windrunner's Breath, so I think my focus on the rules is justified. Honestly, I'm not sure. If it wasn't RNG, then I would have taken seniority into account, such that elims had seniority in 1 doc, and maybe 2 members in another doc where they were lower seniority, so that if they voted together they'd have the option to control that returned vote as well. I just think there are a lot of valid ways to set this up and I'm not confident in my ability to get in Joe's head to guess. Not to mention that I don't really want to brawl you right now, and I feel like your methodology makes that inevitable. My skeptical brain is telling me that your posts today are an effort to wrest thread control away from Hoid and myself (but mostly away from me, because I think Hoid dies tonight in most worlds)

You said it, not me. But I actually think your methodology is flawed. How does spreading the elims evenly assist the game balance? Docs only last a cycle, and shuffle around quite a bit. Also, who breaths go to is determined by seniority unless two priests vote together, which seems unlikely in most circumstances. Similar with the returned votes.

This would make me an elim, since TwinStorm and TUH were my fellow priests.

Yeah, well, it’s hard to get a good read on quiet folks. And being honest, most of what he’s done this game that I’ve objected to fits better as (what I consider to be) suboptimal village play as opposed to nefarious elim plots Hoid Slayer I can see, but where are these other two reads coming from?

Would exe in a heartbeat: CD, Doc, BBB Would not exe: TOW, Hoid, Penguin Would exe in 2 heartbeats: Aman, KSauce

Coming from you, I lean village on this post. Could you elaborate though? If you’re just going off your gut that’s fine, but are there any posts either of those players have made that stuck out to you? I’m really not a fan of advocating for another info exe, especially when it is again unclear how illuminating a village flip will be. I certainly would be inclined to exe you on a v!BBB flip based on this post. Not to mention your over-concern with clearing yourself when you haven’t really garnered significant suspicion all game. Kinda tempted to vote you now. Also, there are probably 3 elims, so I’m extremely troubled that you are unable to conceive of any others. Even e!BBB would have 2 teammates! Couldn’t one of them be a better exe than BBB? So I start with the Polly kill. Usually elims don’t kill as much in their own activity bracket, since it makes hiding harder. Polly’s activity was low enough that we didn’t get any specific info from her death. Anyway, that makes me think that 2-3 of the elims voted both cycles (I’m fairly confident in a 3-elim team). I have light village reads on TOW and Penguin both for their posts and because, as low actives, they don’t fit the NK profile quite as well. From last cycle’s votes that suggests 1-3 elims in Doc, BBB, KSauce, CD, and you. I’m granting you a temporary reprieve because you’re pulling a lot of weight right now. If KSauce and BBB are both elim, then of course BBB would flip red. If only one of them is, it’s more likely to be BBB, since both BBB voters have flipped village. If neither of them are elim, then the elims wouldn’t have cared too much about exeing TwinStorm, so e!Doc fits nicely into that world. And I checked last night that nothing in the D1 votes was inconsistent with any of this. Of course, CD’s posts today make me fairly suspicious of him. If BBB is village, we could have a CD/Doc team. Again, I would have voted Doc but he’s not going to be giving us much to work with moving forward, so I figure it’s better to interrogate folks that will talk back.

Mostly from VC analysis and an assumption that the elims have been voting. That assumption is based on the Polly kill, which I would guess comes from someone who is upset with the activity levels.

Aman, TOW, and Penguin are alive and didn't vote last cycle. I adjusted the numbers in the doc; I didn't account for myself. Penguin didn't vote deliberately, it's hard to say for the other two. If I had to exe one of them it would be in the order Aman, Peng, TOW. As promised, BBB. I find your voting patterns suspicious given the flips we've had, at least if we assume that the elims have been voting each cycle. I'm actually a bit more suspicious of Doc but he's going to be away for a while and if I'm right the two of you are on a team together anyway.