Araris Valerian

I'm tinfoiling TJ as an elim. Mostly so I can say "I told y'all so" if he's actually evil, since I don't think I'm convincing anyone of this. To elaborate, he's the one that pushed most vocally against exeing in Burnt/Mist. A TJ/Mist/Burnt team could get v!coco exed, save Burnt with the Mask, and then it wouldn't be too hard to get another misexe in the remaining 2 turns, especially since Burnt going invincible would "clear" Mist. Again, this is rather convoluted, but it's worth some consideration IMO. If TJ is village then I'm a little concerned about Archer due to his link with coco, but I'm pretty strongly in agreement with Drake here and Archer seems to be as well. At least for now, I'm in favor of "exe Burnt and try to get an elim candidate in second place" as a strategy. We really need to resolve whether Burnt has the Stone Mask today so we aren't guessing going into D3.

I’m pretty sure the elims are on top of their game sufficiently to make a claim like that. It’s not even that tricky, just have a different elim claim each mask than the one that actually got it.

This is kinda how I'm thinking. Honestly a TJ/Burnt team is the thing that crossed my mind.

Something to point out here: If we assume e!Burnt, then we don’t actually know which elim had the Mask of Scents.

@Archer @coco.pudding out of curiosity, do either of you feel like the other has been behaving in a way to deliberately make the two of you seem to be on a team? Or are you both reasonably convinced the other is village?

So we know that one/both of Burnt/Mist are elim. I'm kinda inclined to think that Burnt is the elim, mostly because I don't want to believe that we are so incompetent we never managed to have an elim as a leading train. The question is whether this is an e/e ploy. I think if Mist was elim and Burnt was village then Mist would be counterclaiming rather than just kind of dodging.

This is kinda going off vibes and also based on the Divergent exe (again, to win the loop we need to assume either Divergent or TJ is elim, and the Divergent exe had more activity so it seems more plausible). But that implicates you, and Stick, and Mistfallen I think. Stick's been kinda quiet this game, so it might be a good time to get a clue into her alignment.

Yep. I'm ready to burn. Also, sorry for my lack of contribution today. I'm feeling tired/sick and don't really have much analysis in me. I'm happy to respond to specific questions from folks. Main thing is that I'm kinda against a coco exe (which is somewhat ironic given the overwhelming opinion of the dead folks and my persistence against her this game).

That’s only sort of true. There’s a bit of uncertainty with the Blast Mask if the elims don’t have both hats with a targeted action. I think we should proceed today as if one of the dead players is elim (otherwise we’d need to exe an elim today and block the NK tonight to win the loop). It makes the most sense to pick TJ/Divergent as the elim, since I have a bit of a hard time believing that the elims NK’d themselves so far this loop. It’s not impossible, but we probably don’t need to worry about it unless we end up winning the loop.

I think this post means coco is village. The elims, knowing I am village, would assume TUM’s claim was fake, meant to stop them from killing him. It could be a thought-out reaction, but it doesn’t really read like that.

I'm gonna stick to my claim. The owner of the Bremen Mask should target me sometime before the loop ends (probably after tonight, so as to have a chance of stopping the NK).

Yeah, within about 15 minutes of making the claim I realized it was a bad idea. In my defense, it's not entirely obvious that claiming mostly helps the elims, and if it stopped me from getting exed that would outweigh some of the downside.

There are 2 Arentas now! Everyone owes double the rent!

Ah. So the only way to mass-explode would be for a player to have both at the same time. Also, I’m realizing that there are only 2 abilities that can target me (or 3 if someone splurged on Keaton Mask). And those abilities both have useful applications for the village (a roleblock and a track).

It helps by letting us exe someone else if the consensus is that I should die, since someone can kill me during the night turn. Also, my understanding was the PMs targeted both the postman and the recipient. I can’t recall where Aman clarified but whatever. It’s moot at this point anyway.

Well, I think you and Archer could be on a team together, and I find your voting patterns suspicious. Nobody else seems to find Archer suspicious, so the odds of that exe going through are low. I believe I have the most votes, so between me getting exed and a slightly weaker one of my elim reads getting exed, the latter is clearly preferable. Also, at this point I’m never getting NK’d, so I’ll go ahead and mention that I have the Blast Mask. If y’all want to kill me, just target me with something (tonight or N3). If Wonko hadn’t died I was gonna suggest that everyone PM me except the cleared villagers, since that would have locked in the cycle as a win for us, but I didn’t think of the plan until D2. And it’s not really a plan that can work once we’ve lost 2 loops.

I feel like this day has done nothing but muddle my reads even further. Drake has a good explanation for his e!read on TJ, but I agree with a lot of what TJ said. My main points of disagreement would be less confidence in Mistfallen as village and less willingness to exe Burnt. Since we’re closing toward the end of the day, I’ll switch from Archer to coco. I find both suspicious, but I still think Archer fits the elim profile a bit better. Still, I think they could be teamed and ultimately am happy exeing either. Edit: For folks voting me, could I get some concrete examples of how I’ve been “too safe” or whatever? I’d rather not get misexed on misplaced vibes, so please just double-check that you actually think what I posted is suspicious.

My take on why it vanished is that nobody really had a strong reason to be voting there in the first place. That might be partly related to the flipless nature of the game. Regardless, if you think Burnt is elim, then presumably some of the folks that originally voted for her would be as well, for the train vanishing to be a relevant data point. Which of the Burnt voters are you most suspicious of?

Looking at votes, you, Burnt, and Hael would not qualify (Ash too but he's village). Archer, Wonko, Mistfallen, Doc, Divergent, and coco are all pretty prolific posters during D1a and D2a, which is the time frame during which the elims would have needed to decide that they were going for the win. Wonko is likely village for drawing the NK. Now, if Hoid, Archer, and Mistfallen (the side trains from D2a with 2 votes) are all village then the elims wouldn't really have needed to be active then to avoid getting exed. I'm not sure anyone here is convinced that is the case, though. Can you explain your reasoning for Burnt? I think the lack of flips means that just exeing the counter-train isn't a great strategy, at least without further reasoning.

Thanks! This all checks out to me. I’m not entirely sure about the last two bullets, but you’ve convinced me in principle, and made me more interested in hearing TJ’s thoughts on where to go from here. My gut still is trying to ignore him for whatever reason. What are your thoughts on Archer/coco? Also, I’m mildly concerned that everyone you list as being implicated by Wonko’s list is in the low-medium activity zone. My take is that the elims would need a decent amount of activity to reasonably aim for the L1 win, which conflicts with that list. Do you (and others) think that’s a baseless assumption? I suppose I can see Stick leading a quieter elim team in that direction.

Anyone mind summarizing their thoughts on TJ? He’s kinda slipped under my radar, and since I’ve been focusing on the more active players that’s lead me to assume he’s likely village.

I admittedly do slot in to all the places I've been casting suspicion with my vote analysis, though my initial suspicion of Archer is more related to his and Wonko's D1a posts. Hopefully I can put something together to convince the rest of y'all that I'm the good one and Archer and coco are rotten tenants that owe me all of their rupees.

Well, I'm going to open with a vote on Archer. I was thinking either him or Wonko was elim (or both), so this is a good opportunity to get both of them with a single execution. I'll plan to reread at least his and coco's posts in more detail.

I certainly have mixed feelings about how much traction my vote on Divergent ended up gaining. I didn’t feel like I’d made much of a compelling case and I kinda brushed off Divergent’s response to my vote. In the case of e!Divergent I’d expect someone to point that out. There was a dynamic of the Mistfallen train collapsing which can explain some of the movement, but not all of it. I’m also pretty wary of both coco and Archer. If Divergent was actually village, then we don’t really learn much about Burnt’s alignment, but it does suggest 1-2 elims voting on Divergent. If Divergent and Burnt are both village, that would suggest a team of Doc/Wonko/Archer/coco. Hael could swap in for either of the latter two but I’m still thinking that the elims are much more on the active side of things. I’m a little wary of saying both Wonko and Archer are elims because of their D1a interactions though. Archer could definitely pull that off as an elim but idk if he would bother. I guess we should consider if we think the elims split their votes 3/1, 2/2, or 2/1/1. I’ve been kinda assuming the 2/2 split but maybe someone has an argument for something else. Technically 1/1/1/1 is possible but that requires a Stick/Mist/Burnt team. And of course Hoid and Drake could be elims.

That was my point. We presumably don't want the holder of the Blast Mask to claim if they are a likely NK target. Consequently, we should avoid sending PMs or otherwise using abilities on any confirmed villagers.