Araris Valerian

Hmm. I definitely didn’t come into this cycle thinking I’d be an exe candidate. Well, maybe there are just 2 elims so that I can 1) not feel too bad about dying and 2) laugh at y’all from the dead doc.

iOS yo have a bunch of observations about my play, and I’m assuming you think all of these things are elim indicative. But are they? I’ve said my low engagement early on was due to the nature of the game. Take that or leave it I suppose. Have you observed e!me spiking in activity after prompting from a villager in the past? I’m doing the best I can without any red flips. That means, to some extent, re-evaluating people. I’m not going crazy like a certain bro, but I have reread the thread a couple times (probably more than anyone else except you and maybe Aeoryi). I discussed the complaint thing with you in our PM. Unless you are 100% confident we are exeing an elim, the math checks out in favor of the village. And I wouldn’t mind you going exactly what you didn’t like about my earlier posts (which conclusions don’t fit the data, etc.). Might get some other folks to read them and give their thoughts. The only way that was “forced” was in the “hey, it’s ExLo, I’d better figure out what’s going on” way.

Honestly, not sure. He had a point about DeTess passing investiture that I liked, but upon further review, I could get behind an exe on him. I think whoever we exe today should be someone that voted on Archer, since Archer is a threatening player and I think the elims would jump at a chance to vote him out. I will say that the post immediately above mine doesn’t seem to come from an elim mindset. Also, Mat, have you laid out a case against me? Anything other than “he was inactive C1-C2”?

We are getting the exe right now. It's D3 and we are on our third exe, so nothing has been lost. On the flip side, it's D3 and there has only been a single elim kill, which is one less than we'd expect. If the complaint thingy is the sole mechanic responsible for this (which I somewhat doubt), then we should 100% be taking advantage of it.

That’s extremely good if that’s what it does. We get a free exe where the elims don’t get to kill anyone.

I’ve got a complaint on Frustration, anyone who wants can feel free to join me.

Whatever happened with the complaint, it apparently overrode the elim kill. That seems like a good thing to me.

I think if Mat is elim then there would only be a 2-person team. Otherwise he wouldn't be pushing to get me exed right now. Mark seems very much to be interested in solving the game. So yeah, I like them both. Maybe we can complain out Frustration.

I played that game, and won, and we didn't exe the GM. And yeah, there's always a first, but if you want to speculate on all the "first" things that could be happening this game, be my guest. If that's the game we're playing then I give up now. Also, if Szeth is elim, the TKN is definitely an elim as well, because by definition Szeth knows his role, and the elims wouldn't leave a kill role floating around.

I have a stronger v!read on the GM than on any player, by virtue of the fact that the GM has literally never been an eliminator in the 100+ games I've played.

Aeoryi, TKN

I’ve been assuming 3 elims, which means we’re at 5-3 right now. If we misexe and the elim kill goes through, that’s game over. Complaints don’t factor in. If we think DeTess was removed via complaints that strongly supports the 3 elim team. Not sure what happened to the NK from N2 in that case though.

Sorry man, I have too much respect for your elim play to discount the option entirely. Though if you are elim, you’ve done an excellent job and probably deserve to win. Honestly I just want some input from folks that aren’t you/Aeoryi. The three of us talking in circles can only accomplish so much, and I think I’m nearing the limit of the fruitful analysis I can do.

None of that “if I flip green” stuff matters. If you flip green the village loses. I also don’t like how you have me as elim in all possible worlds. I’m okay at mafia but I definitely make mistakes, which is why I’m specifically asking for input from other players. In terms of the voting stuff, it’s just a trend I’ve observed. Also, in the case you are a villager, have you considered the world where Mat is an elim that’s pocketing you? Something very similar happened in my game on MU last year; there was a villager playing erratically and one of the elims was fiercely defending them. I’m somewhat disconcerted by how confidently Mat is v!reading you.

Sorry, that’s not what I meant. I was bringing up Aeoryi’s voting as an additional point of discussion for the extra time we have today. If we all just revoted TKN then we’d probably end up wasting most of the day. All the reasons folks had for voting him last cycle are still valid and, like I said, I’m still fine with exeing him. I think you’re being too dismissive of Aeoryi’s voting, and I’d like to hear what other people think about it. In other words, do folks expect the elims to have some presence on the leading trains, and if so, how does that impact your read on Aeoryi, given the flips we have so far?

Yeah, for all we know this could be like Fifth's Alice game, where the rules just change randomly. But if it was a role, then knowing would help. Seems like a village-sided role, in the sense that we get all the info of an exe (minus the flip) without losing anyone. Not sure why the elims would want to trigger something like that if they had the ability to. Also, knowing DeTess's alignment is useful. I had slowly backed off of her last cycle but wasn't really sure. Here's some updated VC stuff (removing all my reads): @Matrim's Dice, what's the deal with your last minute vote-swap? It was pretty obviously pointless. Also, we are back at ExLo. And I'm back at Aeoryi. I feel pretty decent about Mark and that leaves Aeoryi as the only possible elim on both the D1 and D3 leading trains. I could exe TKN again as well but feel like we should use the extra 48 hours since we have them. Edit: I think one of Aeoryi/Mat is elim or the voting in this game is just really whacko

We lose a cycle of voting. We don't even know if it will have an effect. I have too much respect for the folks that approved these rules to believe that Szeth is on the elim team. Edit: Would definitely be great if someone could claim the role that caused that.

So we don't get a VC?

That was not really an attack on you. It was a criticism of TKN.

This seems quite odd, because the protect role only works at Night. You haven’t really done much to persuade us of a better option. In a blackout, a claim is pretty flimsy. And STINK is just generic low active player #3 or something. There’s a bunch of us actively trying to influence the exe this cycle, do you think we’re all village?

Elim vote manip is really strong. You only need to be able to do it twice in a game; once to hammer and then again during ExLo. As an elim in a game this size, I’d rather have your claimed role than TKN’s.

What's to stop that person from saying something similar?

I have games where I do both. It's one of those things that makes people always suspicious of me. Last MR I unapologetically defended my teammate Wiz even after he did something pretty obviously evil. And there was a LG where I got the most powerful role on my team voted out. At the start of the cycle I would have been pretty tempted to swap to DeTess, but the way things have played out made me rethink.

I decided against it. I’m sticking with TKN this cycle; feel good about him.

Why do you say TKN/me? I basically opened the day by pushing for TKN, when there previously hadn't been any pressure on him. I'll also echo that self-voting isn't great. I'd even prefer Aeoryi to vote on me rather than herself, since that at least gives everyone else some info. You can save yourself if you're still near to being exed at EOD. Now is the time to convince people to vote somewhere.