Long Game 77: A Political Trap

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I also killed Lotus, and nobody can counterclaim that, so yeah, I am a Coinshot.

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

I also killed Lotus, and nobody can counterclaim that, so yeah, I am a Coinshot.

Oh yeah, fair xD

Araris

Unless anyone wants to counterclaim that?  

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I do think this gives me a decent village read on Books. I would expect a villager to be more likely to action scan me (seems to be a recurring thing these days) over an elim.

I would also appreciate someone at least considering protecting me this turn. I think I just got put on the top of the elim hit list.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

9 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

If the elims not including Ventyl killed Azmine, they would be able to mark Illwei as a probable Kandra, which I can't see as being helpful for her on the absence of PMs, or a villager telling a lie without provocation. If Ventyl was an elim who killed Azmine, then whoever killed Jondesu would know that Illwei is evil unless weird redirections happened without anyone's knowledge. The former isn't quite as damaging for Illwei, but I don't see why any of these scenarios are good for them.

Hm, that..

That's a very good point.

Okay cool so I'm convinced that Illwei is probably a villager now.

9 hours ago, manukos said:

hmmmm i was hoping to keep it to myself until tomorrow but.... i guess ill come out and say it in case i am killed

i burnt gold during the morning and found out that a player targeted me last night
no clue with what tho but by process of elimination he is (lurcher , seeker , smoker, slider, pulser, nocoburst)
Should i tell y'all who it was ?
cos i might be outing the role of a villager and putting a target on their back

Interesting. Do you suppose this is what got manukos killed? And if so, why?

I, uh, think they would probably definitely know if they had been nicrobursted or pulsed, so I'm not completely sure I follow the roles analysis here, but yeah.

2 hours ago, Flyingbooks said:

I'm a windwhisper and I scanned Araris with 2 charges of tin tongiht. He targeted Manukos, so there is a high probability that he was an elim & killed them.

Seems legit.

I was already sort of planning on joining an Araris wagon if we had one.

Also, I trust books more or less, and we shouldn't be at LyLo just yet, so there isn't much reason to hold off.

2 hours ago, Illwei said:

I think it's telling that this team isn't scared or worried or guilty about killing returning players. Personally I don't...really...know what this implies.

In fairness, Manukos specifically requested not to be treated as a returning player.

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

I also killed Lotus, and nobody can counterclaim that, so yeah, I am a Coinshot.

I stand corrected. Araris.

I had entertained the possibility of you being a hemalurgist or something that killed Lotus, mainly because it is easy to rule out a lot of other players from doing something like that on N1, but for some reason I had discarded the possibility. Whoops.

Well, at least that means the discussion today will be more interesting than just "everyone vote Araris." That woulda probably made for a lousy discussion.

I have some ideas for who I would vote for next, but I will explain them in a new post.

[Archer he/him]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

I also killed Lotus, and nobody can counterclaim that, so yeah, I am a Coinshot.

I want to know after the game why you picked Lotus. For now, I trust you're watching the exlo math and being smart with your choices. 

Didn't Illwei claim the Lotus kill when she took over. Probably misremembering. 

Hey Drake, are you a Thief?

Edited June 4, 2021 by Archer

[Mat he/him]

9 minutes ago, Archer said:

Didn't Illwei claim the Lotus kill when she took over. Probably misremembering. 

Illwei claimed the Azmine kill.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

So first of all, Matrim's Dice (@Matrim's Dice) I don't suppose I could ask you nicely to claim a role?

I believe I have a decently good reason for asking. I might yet be wrong about that, but also, know that I'm not asking you to do something I'm not prepared to do myself. I believe in making fair exchanges for information, quid pro quo and all that, so if you're willing to reveal your role, I guess I'll reveal mine too.

[Mat he/him]

18 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

So first of all, Matrim's Dice (@Matrim's Dice) I don't suppose I could ask you nicely to claim a role?

I believe I have a decently good reason for asking. I might yet be wrong about that, but also, know that I'm not asking you to do something I'm not prepared to do myself. I believe in making fair exchanges for information, quid pro quo and all that, so if you're willing to reveal your role, I guess I'll reveal mine too.

Is the vote just pressure to claim?

I haven’t ever targeted you, if that’s what you’re implying.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Hm, that..

That's a very good point.

Okay cool so I'm convinced that Illwei is probably a villager now.

Illwei isn't guaranteed villager, but between that and Araris claiming the coinshot kills, the main alternative is Kandra and not elim. Since the LG66 Kandra basically couldn't win without dying, it's not really worth it to go after potential Kandras.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Is the vote just pressure to claim?

I haven’t ever targeted you, if that’s what you’re implying.

Okay fair enough I'll be clearer about what I'm getting at.

I think there is a pretty high chance that you are the Kandra.

Part of this is based on a combination of mild suspicion while also thinking you probably aren't on an eliminator team. Part of this is based on role analysis. And while role analysis is generally not a great way to catch eliminators, it is a significantly better way to catch a particular role, and I would be very very surprised if the Kandra were not a particular role.

 

I figure you probably aren't Ferring. If you were a Ferring, you would interact regularly with the fact that storing metals comes with various drawbacks, and I think you probably wouldn't have forgotten that having your vote cancelled can be caused by feruchemy as well as by soothing. Especially because you had one of those roles in the last run of this game.

I figure you probably aren't something that has run into certain barriers of the action economy in this game. You asked me why a second theft in one cycle would imply the existence of two thieves. I am pretty sure that if you only had one action you could take that was allowed on either day or night turns, you would have quickly run into the fact that you can't actually use it in both day and night turns, due to this snippet from the rules: "You have two actions per cycle, which must be distinct actions." This rules out most of the types of pure mistings that can act on either day or night.

I figure you probably aren't a hazekiller. You remarked that you had to check back in the rules doc to see what that role even did when Azmine died.

I figure you probably aren't a vig killing role. Initially this was because you strongly implied on N1 that you would have claimed if you were one of the killing roles, but now it is because Illwei and Araris have both claimed.

I figure you probably aren't an Investigator or Lurcher, mainly because these are both very powerful roles and I would be fairly surprised if a second one existed.

I figure you probably aren't a Rioter, because I think we would have seen evidence of rioting by now if you were one. Also because one of those already died.

If my reasoning is sound this leaves the following possibilities: Soother, Thief, Thug, Kandra.

 

If you're a Soother (which by the way you said you aren't ), that should be easy to confirm since I imagine you have used it at some point.

If you're a Thief, then again that should be easy to confirm. In which case, I want to know if you stole from me  Also if there really are two thieves I'd be a little surprised if both are villagers, but we can cross that bridge when we get to it.

If you're a Thug then at least you could survive being exed, although also if you had made this claim I might have just retracted.

If you are the Kandra, which to be honest is the vibe that I've been getting, then you have a Serial Killer wincon and my vote is well placed.

 

I could probably be persuaded to try to vote for an eliminator instead of who I suspect to be the Kandra, but regardless, I didn't think it would be a good idea for me to just sit on this, hence the vote, the request for a claim, and this elaboration. That is all.

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I could probably be persuaded to try to vote for an eliminator instead of who I suspect to be the Kandra, but regardless, I didn't think it would be a good idea for me to just sit on this, hence the vote, the request for a claim, and this elaboration. That is all.

Ahh ok xD

Yeah I'm not the kandra, but your analysis wasn't wrong. I'm a thief (just a thief :P) but I didn't steal from you. I stole from Szeth D1 and Archer D2, and I tried to steal boxings from Archer N2 but was informed that I couldn't (that question I asked about the thief was distancing from my own role, shattered by this claim smh) and since I doubt anyone started with items and no one could have purchased anything yet, my nights were uneventful.

I was gonna steal from you next, but you were stolen from (supposedly, I'm laughing thinking about you possibly faking it out, yourself being the second thief) so currently it's on someone else. Basically I've been going with the mindset of who-has-the-most-boxings-GO and not really taking my reads into account except for when I stole from Szeth and I was waiting on you to like steal a massive amount at once right before the cap on earning boxings went up. Like, the only person I know the boxings are safe with is me so might as well take out the big fish, right?

I believe you said something about roleclaiming if I did? Mostly I just want to know if you're thief no. 2 xD

On that front, I don't immediately think thief no. 2 is elim, mostly because of what Archer said earlier about that being a bit OP for the elims as far as boxings go when they already have the income from the elim kill every turn, but I'd have to see who it is first :P.

The bright side of this claim is I can openly be thief!Philico in my RPs >:)

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

32 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I stole from Szeth D1

I can confirm

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Ahh ok xD

Yeah I'm not the kandra, but your analysis wasn't wrong. I'm a thief (just a thief :P) but I didn't steal from you. I stole from Szeth D1 and Archer D2, and I tried to steal boxings from Archer N2 but was informed that I couldn't (that question I asked about the thief was distancing from my own role, shattered by this claim smh) and since I doubt anyone started with items and no one could have purchased anything yet, my nights were uneventful.

I was gonna steal from you next, but you were stolen from (supposedly, I'm laughing thinking about you possibly faking it out, yourself being the second thief) so currently it's on someone else. Basically I've been going with the mindset of who-has-the-most-boxings-GO and not really taking my reads into account except for when I stole from Szeth and I was waiting on you to like steal a massive amount at once right before the cap on earning boxings went up. Like, the only person I know the boxings are safe with is me so might as well take out the big fish, right?

I believe you said something about roleclaiming if I did? Mostly I just want to know if you're thief no. 2 xD

On that front, I don't immediately think thief no. 2 is elim, mostly because of what Archer said earlier about that being a bit OP for the elims as far as boxings go when they already have the income from the elim kill every turn, but I'd have to see who it is first :P.

The bright side of this claim is I can openly be thief!Philico in my RPs >:)

Oh, huh. Interesting.

Fair's fair, I am an Archivist.

This is a big part of why I have been doing role analysis as a thing this game. Between my ability giving me random tidbits, the claims I've gotten, and extrapolation based on hints like the ones you gave, I've been steadily trying to fill in my chart for everybody's roles.

After having received clarification on how Archivist works, I am also pretty sure I am the one Manukos saw targeting them on N1, during which I learned they were a Connector. I was a little conflicted about not sharing the existence of such a potentially dangerous role, but it also would have been bad to disclose such a powerful role to the elims if Manukos was village, so I held off on saying anything.

Matrim for now.

I am still a bit suspicious of you, but I don't think you could be the Kandra.

Just one question though, why would you steal from Archer? Haven't you been reading them as village? Because after scratching my head over it for a while trying to understand it, I'm pretty sure that's why Archer asked me if I was a thief. I'm one of the only people who vocally does not especially trust Archer.

Speaking of which:

3 hours ago, Archer said:

Hey Drake, are you a Thief?

I believe my conversation with Matrim should now answer that to your satisfaction.

Are you a Thief?

[Mat he/him]

3 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Just one question though, why would you steal from Archer? Haven't you been reading them as village? Because after scratching my head over it for a while trying to understand it, I'm pretty sure that's why Archer asked me if I was a thief. I'm one of the only people who vocally does not especially trust Archer.

Like I said, I’m worrying less about my reads when I steal and more about who has the most boxings

Plus, if Archer’s the other thief, he’s gotten some of his money back :P. I was stolen from one of the turns, exact one I don’t remember.

[---]

Hmmmmm Whatever happened to me? :P.
In reality, what made you want to kill Manu? Personally I think because of the thread control that one of Drake/Araris should be evil.

Again we see Drake's fixation on the 3p (kandra) which isn't a good look in my opinion when there's the Elims which I think are more of a threat. Especially with this all being out in the open, and roleclaims don't help the village any more than the Elims, especially when roles don't confirm a villager, and so the Elims gain more than we do, especially at this stage.

 - Szeth popped up out of nowhere, adressed something about him, and then left. nothing else. Not a great look.

 - Drake claiming the target on Manu is a huge IKYK.

Oh look

Matrim just posted.

Yeah. Look, still not sure how the thief works, but stealing from whoever you think has the most boxings shouldn't be what a villager is doing in my opinion.
I think that you should be targeting the players you think most likely to be an Elim, instead of the players you think have the most money.  
This also reinforces my earlier elim read on Matrim.

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

4 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I am also pretty sure I am the one Manukos saw targeting them on N1, during which I learned they were a Connector. I was a little conflicted about not sharing the existence of such a potentially dangerous role, but it also would have been bad to disclose such a powerful role to the elims if Manukos was village, so I held off on saying anything.

What did you do with your other action I gave you on that turn?

Also, after reading through the thread, I think Araris. I think it’s a pretty safe bet that he’s elim, since if I didn’t miss anything too drastic during my inactivity, I can’t imagine why vil!Araris would want to kill manukos of all people. Plus, if I recall correctly, Lotus was spiked, not Coinshot killed. I could be wrong, but I’ll have to go read through the thread to make sure. Anyway, in the event Araris flips vil, I can imagine this giving us a substantial amount of information. So, yeah.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

5 minutes ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

What did you do with your other action I gave you on that turn?

Also, after reading through the thread, I think Araris. I think it’s a pretty safe bet that he’s elim, since if I didn’t miss anything too drastic during my inactivity, I can’t imagine why vil!Araris would want to kill manukos of all people. Plus, if I recall correctly, Lotus was spiked, not Coinshot killed. I could be wrong, but I’ll have to go read through the thread to make sure. Anyway, in the event Araris flips vil, I can imagine this giving us a substantial amount of information. So, yeah.

The write up doesn’t reflect the manner of kill. All 3 deaths from N1 were RPed as from spikes. And besides, if someone else did kill Lotus with a spike, they’d have counter claimed me. I can kill you next to prove my role, if that helps .

Also, apologies that I’ve just been reacting and not really helping this turn. I’ll try and post something a bit more substantial later this evening.

[Mat he/him]

4 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Yeah. Look, still not sure how the thief works, but stealing from whoever you think has the most boxings shouldn't be what a villager is doing in my opinion.
I think that you should be targeting the players you think most likely to be an Elim, instead of the players you think have the most money.  

That’s not how my thought process went though :P. Don’t judge it. Maybe it’s true, but then why did the other thief steal from me and Drake? I mean I guess I’m not really vil read but afaik Drake is. But what both of us do have us large quantities of boxings. Szeth was one of my elim reads D1, and I picked him out of everyone else who had the same amount of content as he did. Archer was lower tier in my village reads than TJ or Drake, and none of my elim reads I thought would have a huge amount of boxings and if I was gonna risk giving my identity to the elims I’d want it to be worth the risk. I was forced to claim today which wasn’t ideal but what do you do.

Oh look there’s Szeth with a fun take on how to get rid of the village kill role.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Hmmmmm Whatever happened to me? :P.
In reality, what made you want to kill Manu? Personally I think because of the thread control that one of Drake/Araris should be evil.

Again we see Drake's fixation on the 3p (kandra) which isn't a good look in my opinion when there's the Elims which I think are more of a threat. Especially with this all being out in the open, and roleclaims don't help the village any more than the Elims, especially when roles don't confirm a villager, and so the Elims gain more than we do, especially at this stage.

 - Szeth popped up out of nowhere, adressed something about him, and then left. nothing else. Not a great look.

 - Drake claiming the target on Manu is a huge IKYK.

Oh look

Matrim just posted.

Yeah. Look, still not sure how the thief works, but stealing from whoever you think has the most boxings shouldn't be what a villager is doing in my opinion.
I think that you should be targeting the players you think most likely to be an Elim, instead of the players you think have the most money.  
This also reinforces my earlier elim read on Matrim.

When before have I fixated on the Kandra?? I am confused, since before this turn I maybe mentioned the kandra once in a single post. My general stance has been that both kandra and elims need to die, and I will favor killing elims, but if there is strong enough reason to believe somebody is a kandra that is still definitely a good execution.

Matrim is possibly still a good vote for reasons other than Kandra shenanigans, and when I finish analyzing certain other things I might join you on that.

8 minutes ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

What did you do with your other action I gave you on that turn?

Also, after reading through the thread, I think Araris. I think it’s a pretty safe bet that he’s elim, since if I didn’t miss anything too drastic during my inactivity, I can’t imagine why vil!Araris would want to kill manukos of all people. Plus, if I recall correctly, Lotus was spiked, not Coinshot killed. I could be wrong, but I’ll have to go read through the thread to make sure. Anyway, in the event Araris flips vil, I can imagine this giving us a substantial amount of information. So, yeah.

The extra action is how I was able to use Archivist twice in one cycle.

Again, although you get 2 actions in a cycle, they are normally required to be distinct. So 1 of those 2 actions is always going to be wasted for any of us that only have 1 role.

However, the extra actions granted by nicrobursting and the like can ignore this restriction.

As for the vote on Araris... The writeup does not officially distinguish spikes from coinshots from elim kills from other things. IIRC everyone who died in that writeup was "spiked" so I would take this with a grain of salt. However, there are also reasons I will get into later for why I still probably wouldn't trust Araris just this yet.

[---]

13 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

That’s not how my thought process went though :P. Don’t judge it. Maybe it’s true, but then why did the other thief steal from me and Drake? I mean I guess I’m not really vil read but afaik Drake is. But what both of us do have us large quantities of boxings. Szeth was one of my elim reads D1, and I picked him out of everyone else who had the same amount of content as he did. Archer was lower tier in my village reads than TJ or Drake, and none of my elim reads I thought would have a huge amount of boxings and if I was gonna risk giving my identity to the elims I’d want it to be worth the risk. I was forced to claim today which wasn’t ideal but what do you do.

Oh look there’s Szeth with a fun take on how to get rid of the village kill role.

The Idea that you felt "forced" to claim today is strange, because you weren't. You had one person, Drake, asking you, with a vote. The fact that you felt "forced" to claim there doesn't help my read on you really, because it implies you felt pressure that wasn't there. Elims are more likely to feel the pressure of votes.

Basically
 - Mat/Drake not E/E
 
Which... isn't anything new from my conclusions on ...D1? so yeah. but that's reinforced.

Mat could still be e/e with Araris, based on how quickly he got off after that claim. Even I'm a bit skeptical, tbh, even though he's claiming the kill on Lotus as well. for mat to just accept that is just a tad hmm to me.

Honestly I don't know what- can the Kandra have roles? because with Drake's such emphasis on finding the Kandra, I'm almost convinced that the Kandra is him lmao.

Again, if the Kandra can have roles, then claiming roles doesn't help you find the Kandra.

To be honest here, I am more inclined to trust Araris than not because of how much people talk about scanning him. Unless Araris/Books is E/E, then I think Araris isn't evil here. He would have had anyone else assign the kill because of what's happened recently imo.

[Mat he/him]

20 minutes ago, Illwei said:

The Idea that you felt "forced" to claim today is strange, because you weren't. You had one person, Drake, asking you, with a vote. The fact that you felt "forced" to claim there doesn't help my read on you really, because it implies you felt pressure that wasn't there. Elims are more likely to feel the pressure of votes.

Illwei, it was a word. I could have said ‘was asked’, ‘was told’, ‘need to or else people will think I’m the kandra’ and they all would have meant the same thing. I would say there was pressure, Deake voted on me saying he thought I was the kandra.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

4 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Again, if the Kandra can have roles, then claiming roles doesn't help you find the Kandra.

I'm sure it is possible in the abstract for the Kandra to have roles, but it would be fairly surprising, I think. Like if the Kandra is just randomly also a Misting, I have a hard time picturing that. It would make more sense to just give them whatever powers you wanted them to have as part of a special role. Yeah, I'm making a bet about how I think secret mechanics work, but how else do we deal with secret mechanics?

Again, I don't think it's wrong to pursue the Kandra, if you think you have a reasonable chance at succeeding. I've seen games where the thread was largely consumed by discussion about some serial killer role or another, and this is not that. I'm usually the one who complains when people do this  But I very much disagree with the notion that ever bringing up the Kandra is inherently bad.

But tbh this is not really a useful direction of conversation. The best way to show that I'm still in the business of catching eliminators this cycle is to actually start doing some of that. So for starter's here's the reads list I've been working on.

Color Key

Strong Village Read
Village Read
Slight Village Read
Neutral / No Read
Slight Elim Read
Elim Read
Strong Elim Read

Player List

Ashbringer
Biplet
Szeth_Pancakes
Matrim's Dice
Araris Valerian
The Unknown Order
DrakeMarshall
Archer
Illwei (formerly Ventyl)
Devotary of Spontaneity
Dannex
Flyingbooks

I don't really have any strong suspicions, sadly, but even just the process of elimination yields pretty decent odds for hitting an evil player, I think. Pending a more in-detail analysis of some of these players it is likely that I will vote for one of the orange names.

[Biplet she/her]

Y'know I know this is a game about sussing people and whatnot but every time someone susses me I feel like that cat miette in that one viral tweet y'all know what I'm talking about right

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

I looked it up and still not sure if I really get it but

I realize we're already a decent amount into the cycle so for now imma get a vote out there and suggest Devotary and see what happens. Here is your complementary voting tally:

Vote Tally
Araris Valerian (2): Flyingbooks, Szeth_Pancakes
Devotary of Spontaneity (1): DrakeMarshall
Matrim's Dice (1): Illwei
Szeth_Pancakes (1): Matrim's Dice

@Flyingbooks I feel that information you would find relevant has come to light since you made your vote.

[Archer he/him]

No, I'm not a thief and yes that's why I asked about it. Drake's feeling guilty for being smart but

4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

... I doubt anyone started with items and no one could have purchased anything yet, my nights were uneventful.

Basically I've been going with the mindset of who-has-the-most-boxings-GO and not really taking my reads into account except for when I stole from Szeth 

On that front, I don't immediately think thief no. 2 is elim, mostly because of what Archer said earlier about that being a bit OP for the elims as far as boxings go when they already have the income from the elim kill every turn, but I'd have to see who it is first :P.

so much of this reads as suspicious to me (quote snipped). I see no reason why v!Mat would steal from me, given their village read of me. It's actively hurting who he still says he thinks is a teammate. Also, he just revealed I have no items. :/ Even if he's just going for the most boxings, I shouldn't be the top target. Araris has more, for example. I've been on both exe wagons, but I got like two boxings from each of those. (Am I complaining because I'm broke? Yup :P) 

My v!thief assumption was based on there being only one thief. I can definitely see there being one of each alignment. I hesitate to exe based on role alone, but use of a role is certainly fair game. And I can conveniently recoup my losses by voting for a Thief. Matrim

Flyingbooks and Araris are likely village, based on how they've used their roles. Illwei killed a villager, so that's meh, and I can see Ventyl wanting to use their power before leaving. But strategically, the elims would have wanted to save it. So I'll agree they are villagey. 

I'm curious who the kandra is, but Araris can take them out if they're so inclined. I'd rather exe elims. I'll see about doing some proper analysis tomorrow (woo, weekend), but I wanted to jump on the Mat stealing from me thing while it was fresh