Quick Fix 52: Dancing in the Mists

[danex]

4 hours ago, Illwei said:

*raises hand*

mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

interesting

[---]

1 hour ago, Quintessential said:

:/// wait are you saying he's acting like in a game where he was elim, or acting like in a game where he was village? *confusion*

Uhhh village lmao. Village at the same time as he was elim in another game, which is a different scenario because you theorrtically have the guilty conciousness from the other game running. So idk. Mostly its the v!mat going like "would an elim *really* do this guys? :)" kinda stuff

[Quintessential]

Alright, so less than an hour until rollover, and our current VC is:

Matrim (2): Illwei, Xino
Kings (4): Quinn, Matrim, Bridge, Gears
Tani (1): Archer

7/12 is technically better than 7/14 (edit: oh wait that's right TUO voted too so 8/14) I guess, but there are still five players who haven't voted yet, @Kings_way, @Jondesu, @Dannex, @Tani, and @PizzaPower55. So uh... please vote if you're on : P or at least say something about your suspicions. 

Votes placed so far along with their stated reasoning (all votes placed so far have remained where they were placed, so I won't bother with bolding):

• Illwei votes Matrim: no reasoning stated.
• Quinn votes Kings: for having voted Bridge last cycle.
• Matrim votes Kings: same reason as Quinn basically.
• Archer votes Tani: because it concerns him that he doesn't have a village read on her yet.
• Bridge votes Kings: same reason as Quinn and Matrim.
• Gears votes Kings: to get info on Matrim and Dannex.
• Xino votes Matrim: tinfoil about e!Mat voting his NK.

5 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Uhhh village lmao. Village at the same time as he was elim in another game, which is a different scenario because you theorrtically have the guilty conciousness from the other game running. So idk. Mostly its the v!mat going like "would an elim *really* do this guys? :)" kinda stuff

Ah okay that's what I thought, since you said you thought Mat was vil, but I was confused by the phrasing  

Edited April 17, 2021 by Quintessential

[---]

31 minutes ago, Dannex said:

mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

interesting

Im conftown now, Archer says so.

[Mat]

@Illwei I was elim in LG70 but village in the MR running alongside it. That was the one I made... questionable village decisions.

I won’t be in again before rollover, mowing my lawn. And have been for the past two hours. The grass is long. Keeping vote half self pres and half because I think Kings is elim.

Gut against xino but take that with the grain of salt that he voted on me in that post for something I didn’t do :P.

[Ashbringer]

Time!

Rollover should actually be short this time! It's a wonder what actually doing things in advance can do for someone.

[Ashbringer]

QF52 Cycle 3: First Come, Last Served

"Welcome, everyone!" Lord Hasting rasped. Then he took a small bow. "I had plans for a grander speech, but it appears that I've developed a rather irritated throat. So, the main course is now available, and you will be served shortly."

The hubbub of the room immediately quieted down - save for Table Four, which rose into excited chatter. Hasting shook his head. Those poor boys... they were hungry, but that would go remembered for a long time. He directed his attention to the Terrismen bringing out plates of roast pork and steamed potatoes, watching them listen carefully to the dietary requests of the - 

"DON'T EAT THAT!" a voice exclaimed, over the sickening crash of shattered porcelain.

Hasting reflexively covered his ears, then looked. Table Six. Tesse Mourn was standing with a wicked glare at Varien Lithel, while what used to be the meal and plate of Kiel lay scattered on the floor. Blast, those had been antiques... but Mourn had enough poise to know that. This was important.

 

"What did you put on that dish, Lithel!" she exclaimed. "I saw you sprinkle something on! What is it!"

Varien looked agast. "It was just some salt, milady, mine tasted too sweet and I-"

"Salt? Salt? What was it really, Varien? Pewter to get Kiel ejected by the Seekers? Poison to just kill them here and now? Tell the truth!"

Hasting waved his cane. A guardsman stood straight, then slowly shook his head. So, no change in the room. Tesse Mourn wasn't burning brass, and no Thugs or Coinshots were getting ready to cause a scene. Interesting. And yet, Lithel looked terrified all the same.

"Lord Hasting, I must request that this individual be removed from my presence at once," Mourn stated finally. Kiel nodded, as did others. Hasting gave the order, and a shocked Varien Lithel was dragged from the keep, stammering still about salt.

 

"Have one of our skaa test that plate," Hasting said. "As for the rest of you, I assure you that-"

His words died in his ragged throat as a shriek echoed across the hall. Dannex had fallen out of his chair, arms limp, wine glass spilled over his coat. Blood was leaking out of his mouth as he stared at the ceiling.

It appeared that they hadn't found the right poisoner after all.

Bother.

---

 

Kings_way was uninvited! They were a member of the Hasting Hosts!

Dannex was killed! They were a member of the Hasting Hosts!

 

Vote Count:

• Kings_way (4): Matrim's Dice, Quintessential, Gears, Bridge-Four
• Matrim's Dice (2): Illwei, xinoehp512
• Tani (1): Archer

 

@PizzaPower55 did not post last cycle, so you are being warned for inactivity! If you do not post during this next cycle, then you will be replaced.

 

The cycle will end at 1:00 PM PST on April 18th. Get your votes and actions in by then!

Hopefully I'm not forgetting anything too important.

 

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @Matrim's Dice - Philico
2. Liranil - Hasting Host
3. @Quintessential - Tesse Mourn
4. @Gears - Roko the Basilisk [ASPECT: VIN]
5. @Tani - Zilla
6. The Unknown Order - High Prelan Troll(ten) - Hasting Host
7. @Archer - Sisar
8. @Jondesu - Remart
9. Dannex - Hasting Host 
10. @Illwei - Illona
11. @xinoehp512
12. @Bridge-Four - Kiel
13. Kings Way - Varian Lithel - Hasting Host
14. @PizzaPower55

 

[Quintessential]

The actual VC matches the stated VC exactly. 

Why did they kill Dannex? He was like... actually under some suspicion, I thought? Or, well, he was under suspicion if Kings was elim. Which Kings wasn't, and the elims knew that. Okay, nevermind I guess that makes sense.

[Mat]

I had a PM with Dannex. He created it.

...Something about the kills doesn’t seem right. I need to think about this. I feel like I should know what’s going on more than I do.

[Archer]

The exe on TUO was too easy. And Dannex has a similar profile to Liranil; active, but not widely village read. Both of those concern me.

I received a PM from Kingsway that they never used. I also received PMs from Quinn, Mat and Illwei, and sent one to BridgeFour. (This disproves Illwei’s statement that they sent a PM to Liranil, by the way.)

I assume the elims coordinated their PM choices and decided to each message a different person. I assume I have not yet been elim killed so they can maximize their PM with me, and to disguise the active player(s) on their team. It may be that four villagers decided to PM me though, so let’s assume there’s zero to one elims in the group of Mat, Illwei, and Quinn. That means there’s two to three elims in the group of Gears, Tani, Jondesu, Xino, BridgeFour, and PizzaPower.

[Mat]

Illwei, why’d you claim to try to PM Liranil?

Yeah, I have a PM with Archer. I started that one.

In the larger group, I’d say xino or Jondesu. Smaller group I’d say... Illwei, though I trust the smaller group okay. So maybe it’s you/xino/Jon :P.

Why’d you vote Tani though?

[Quintessential]

20 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I had a PM with Dannex. He created it.

...Something about the kills doesn’t seem right. I need to think about this. I feel like I should know what’s going on more than I do.

Did Dannex say whether anyone else created PMs with him? And yeah, I think you might be right about the kills. It's like... they're not the kills I would have chosen. Either of them. Which... probably means I'm looking at everything totally wrong : P

18 minutes ago, Archer said:

I assume the elims coordinated their PM choices and decided to each message a different person. I assume I have not yet been elim killed so they can maximize their PM with me, and to disguise the active player(s) on their team. It may be that four villagers decided to PM me though, so let’s assume there’s zero to one elims in the group of Mat, Illwei, and Quinn. That means there’s two to three elims in the group of Gears, Tani, Jondesu, Xino, BridgeFour, and PizzaPower.

Okay, this makes sense assuming that Archer is village. Which tbh I kind of have been up until now.

But... like Mat said, the kills feel wrong, which makes me think I'm missing something. So... for the sake of argument, here's what it means if Archer is elim:

Myself, Illwei, Mat, and Bridge are more or less cleared. There are almost certainly only three elims, so it wouldn't make sense for them to waste PMs by PMing each other. That means two elims in the group of Gears, Jondesu, Xino, Pizza (leaving out Archer 'cause the assumption is that he's elim, and Tani because he seems serious enough in trying to get her exed). We don't know who any of those people PMd.

Now, that's not to say that that is the reality. If Archer is village then he's right and we have a much larger pool we have to sort through : P I just wanted to put this out there so that his take isn't the only one available to reference off of.

Hmmm @Illwei and Matrim, how have your PM conversations with Archer gone, roughly?

In general, though, here's a list of who's PM'd whom that I know of so far:

Matrim PM'd Archer; Matrim/Archer probably not e/e
Quinn PM'd Archer; Quinn/Archer probably not e/e (I mean, I know we're not but I'll include it for common reference : P)
Tani PM'd Quinn; Tani/Quinn probably not e/e
Archer PM'd Bridge; Archer/Bridge probably not e/e
Illwei PM'd Archer; Illwei/Archer probably not e/e

I still don't know who Gears, Jondesu, Xino, and Pizza PM'd, so if any of you feel like sharing... that could be useful. 

Edit: @Matrim's Dice pretty sure Illwei's thing was just a joke lol

Edited April 17, 2021 by Quintessential

[Mat]

5 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Did Dannex say whether anyone else created PMs with him?

He said I was his only PM. Since he flipped village I’m inclined to believe that.

5 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Hmmm @Illwei and Matrim, how have your PM conversations with Archer gone, roughly?

Commented about how I haven’t sussed him yet (changed now xD), I mentioned I wouldn’t mind Archer being elim because it might semi-clear me and he agreed... I think he posted one of his posts in the PM before the thread and asked me what I thought of it. The one about other people’s PMs I think.

Edit: Oh yeah and asked me to switch off Kings

Edited April 17, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Quintessential]

39 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Commented about how I haven’t sussed him yet (changed now xD), I mentioned I wouldn’t mind Archer being elim because it might semi-clear me and he agreed... I think he posted one of his posts in the PM before the thread and asked me what I thought of it. The one about other people’s PMs I think.

In my PM with Archer, he ran that same post by me, told me he'd PM'd Bridge, said he was going to message Bridge with important info in case he died (Bridge specifically because Bridge is in a timezone where they wouldn't be on for rollover)... that was basically all that was important. There was also me forgetting I hadn't told him I had a PM with Tani, and referencing it casually, and he was like "oh good to know" xD but I doubt that matters. He didn't ask me to switch off Kings or anything. 

[---]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

This disproves Illwei’s statement that they sent a PM to Liranil, by the way.

And here i thought we could scheme together :pensive:

[Quivil]

@Archer I'm confused. Please could you explain exactly why you want me dead so bad?

Last cycle you were like "Imma vote Tani because I read everyone else as vil" (or thats my interpretation) and this cycle you have a list of people that has 2 elims in it and you pick me to vote (also my interpretation). Is this... confbias? Gut? No reason? Am I secretly evil and just don't know it? Please explain what it actually is if my interpretations are wrong. Also please include all the bits that make me sus. all the reasons you think I'm elim.

 

Also I'm not gonna be on on Sunday so please respond before then if you can.

Edited April 17, 2021 by Tani

[Mat]

Reads list with no reasoning because I'm tired. Not that I don't have it, just that I don't feel like writing it out right now :P. Ask me later for specifics. The + and - in the Null section are Leaning village for + and leaning elim for -

In a spoiler box just because it's tall

Spoiler

Village:

• (Me)
• Quinn
• Tani

Slight Village:

• Illwei
• Bridge

Null:

• Gears (+)
• Pizza
• Jondesu (-)

Slight Elim:

• Archer
• xino

@Quintessential, if you have the vcs for C1/C2 handy, could you c/p them so I can have them?  Thanks.

Orrr I guess just C1 cause C2s is right there.

Edited April 17, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Quintessential]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Orrr I guess just C1 cause C2s is right there.

TUO (4): Illwei, Bridge, Archer, Liranil
Matrim (1): Quinn
Bridge (1): Kings
Liranil (1): Matrim

Plus TUO voted someone but... I forgot to write down who. Other than that it's accurate : P

[Mat]

Just checked, it was Dannex.

Here's whatever this thing is, then :P.

C1:

Spoiler

• TUO (4): Illwei, Bridge, Archer, Liranil
• Matrim (1): Quinn
• Bridge (1): Kings
• Liranil (1): Matrim
• Dannex (1): TUO

C2:

Spoiler

• Kings (4): Matrim, Quinn, Gears, Bridge
• Matrim (1): Illwei, xino
• Tani (1): Archer

I'm looking at Bridge being on both village trains, and the number of v/v votes that seemed to happen C1 (I'm reading Quinn village). Not much we can see for C2's, of course. Maybe Bridge should be demoted from slight village to Null (+) for me...

Edited April 17, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[PizzaPower55]

hello everyone

[Jondesu]

I have no intention of sharing who I’m PMing with, if anyone indeed. I don’t think the Elims knowing that helps us, and I’m suspicious of the suggestion that we share it. Sorry, @Quintessential, but I don’t like that at all. I’m not confirming I’ll vote for you yet, but it’s a possibility.

Also, sorry, I missed rollover was coming up so soon and didn’t figure out who to vote for in time. Probably would have been Kings, but I had some other suspicions forming too. I’ll share them in a bit, this cycle definitely.

[PizzaPower55]

i kinda forgot this game existed yesterday, sorry

[Quintessential]

1 minute ago, Jondesu said:

I have no intention of sharing who I’m PMing with, if anyone indeed. I don’t think the Elims knowing that helps us, and I’m suspicious of the suggestion that we share it. Sorry, @Quintessential, but I don’t like that at all. I’m not confirming I’ll vote for you yet, but it’s a possibility.

*rubs eyes* how many times do I have to explain this. I've already said all of this more than once, but:

First of all, the elims may know already. Like. If you PM'd an elim. Or if you PM'd someone who has a PM with an elim and who trusted that elim enough to tell them.

Second of all, give me one concrete example of a situation in which the knowledge that you have a PM with a specific person gives the elims a significant advantage, or any advantage.

And third of all, the knowledge of whom you have a PM with narrows the pool of potential elim teams, and helps us to solidify relationships between people who have otherwise been silent enough that we have no idea what to think of them. In other words, knowing whom you PM'd could help us find elims.

Also if you're going to vote for someone on the basis that they wanted everyone to claim who they PM'd, it should be Archer, not me. He was the first one to suggest it (see the bolded part of this post)

 

[Archer]

I started this post an hour ago, so the last four posts aren't considered. 

What’s pointing me towards Tani is my theorized elim profile is one of them is fairly active. I’m reading Quinn (their end of C1 posts seemed village), Mat (sussed me after I suggested they change votes from Kingsway, indicating they didn’t know their alignment), and Illwei as village (their attempt at becoming conftown was so ill conceived an elim wouldn’t have done it). After them, Tani is the most active player.

The alternatives:

-PizzaPower posted once to say ‘hi’. Unreadable.

Jondesu has made two posts. Their only non-RP statement so far has been:

Quote

I like the discussion surrounding distancing and whether Elims bussed anyone, I have a history of bussing teammates, so it intrigues me to figure out if the current team of Elims would do so as well. I do think that Matrim is less suspicious to me than Kings of the two top candidates right now, but I’m going to try to put more time into reading day 1 to see if anyone else stands out. I fully intend to make my allegiance able to be determined without having to say it definitively, but of course I know that will take more posting from me. I’ll try to make at least 2-3 posts per cycle so long as I survive, more if I can (and my next one will be RP).

Obviously it wasn’t bussing and Kings was innocent, so so far Jondesu has been completely wrong. But this isn’t enough to go on, and more importantly doesn’t match the profile I’m looking for.

-Xino has made one post:

Quote

 

My instincts tell me I should either not vote or join the bandwagon. But you know what? Forget that! Chances are I'll just fall inactive as the game progresses anyways. Might as well do something before then.

And so, I have a theory about Matrim's Dice! The theory: After submitting the kill on Liranil, the thought of her remained stuck in his mind. (Like when one is playing a game of Concentration and all one can think about is the word GREEN). He knew that if he voted on her, it could gain him village cred once she was killed. But! This was a fragile plan, and dependent on the whims of others. And so, quickly after rollover, he lampshaded his decision in order to reap the benefits!!

 

He himself says he’s sub-active. I disagree with the vote, but at least it hasn’t been disproved yet and it had some reasoning.

-Gears has two posts total. His first I already analyzed and found little of note.

Quote

 

This will likely be my only post of the cycle. I am currently at a math competition with limited access to the internet. About half of this post was written yesterday, so if it seems disjointed, that is the cause.

Liranil posted twice. The first of which was a statement of existence. The second was vague agreement but adding nothing. As such, Liranil was likely not killed for their own existence. The Matrim implication is a possibility. The low-info route is also one. My paranoia thinks that Matrim knowingly slaughtered the person they were implicating to make themself look better as obviously they wouldn't waste their implication efforts like that. 

 

Similar tinfoil to Xino, but it’s valid enough not to be suspicious.

Quote

As I was quickly skimming the thread to see what I missed, I noted this statement. Grouping people together based off of what one of them says is entirely reasonable [even if I'm not fond of it], and Danex attempts to cast doubt upon the method by saying that it is invalid, specifically using the point that they have no control over Kings. That has no relation to the point. Kings suspected Danex for no reason specifically over all the other people that they could have suspected without reason. This entails a link. If Danex had repudiated the statement via other means, such as pointing out the likely villager-ness of all involved, then they would be fine, but they attack the method of gathering information. This indicates to me that Danex has no rebuttal to the claim being made, and that Danex wants to refute the claim. The only reason why Danex would want to refute the claim is if they know that Kings is an elim and don't want to die after that. 

I think they’re the only person to really sus Dannex last cycle. Interesting Dannex has now died. But I’m inclined to think an elim wouldn’t kill someone who’d make their analysis look bad in retrospect.

Quote

 

Then there is this post. Their previous post was about how given elim!Kings, we should kill Danex. Now they mention being suspicious when no such thing was mentioned. Combined with my paranoia, Mateo is solidly Noted. In the world of e!Mat, I suspect V!Kings and Dannex since my main suspicion of Danex depends on Kings being an elim, and I don't think Mateo would try for the bus so early. 

I think killing Kings is optimal at this point since them flipping elim will semi-clear Mateo and implicate Danex, and them flipping vil will semi-clear Danex. If I fail to vote, it's because the struggling internet here died right before I succeeded in doing so.

 

Didn’t they swear off info kills last game? That’s an interesting inconsistency, but once again the e!self-inflicted contradiction would not be ideal.

After all those players are eliminated, we’re left with BridgeFour and Tani, who both have a dozen or so posts. My guess is that BridgeFour as a rookie wouldn’t think of the strategy the elims are using. If they are an elim, they’d make fear kills and probably not be worried about being the last talkative person standing. So process of elimination brings me to Tani as my top suspect.

[Mat]

10 minutes ago, Archer said:

So process of elimination brings me to Tani as my top suspect.

All that’s about what others haven’t done...

But what has Tani done?