Quick Fix 52: Dancing in the Mists

[Quivil]

25 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Oh, hey, @Matrim's Dice can you look back and see when roughly you voted for Liranil originally? Day + time of day? Just so I can put it in chronological order with the other votes. I'm a perfectionist  

20 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Pretty much the second after Liranil’s first post :P. So whatever that timestamp is.

Mat voted Liranil twice. At least.

[Quintessential she/her]

1 minute ago, Gneorndin said:

Mat voted Liranil twice. At least.

Right, I have the second time because he announced it in-thread. I was asking about the first time : P

[dannnex male]

2 hours ago, Gneorndin said:

So technically it's far more likely that Mat isn't Elim this game because someone who he voted for was NKd.

I am also kinda reading mat vil, but it’s worth pointing out that this is something ridiculously easy for an Elim to pull off for some cheap Vil cred.

[Quivil]

Hey guys! I'm Tani again! (happidance)(thanks Chaos!)

[dannnex male]

We gotta get some discussion going here people, Elims aren’t gonna exe themselves. I see two possible ways to move forwards, analyzing the votes on TUO, and analyzing who would want to kill Liranil. I think the second would be more fruitful as the first might yield nothing.

So, who would want to kill Liranil? 

Oh, also, quick question, did anyone actually request a PM with Liranil? 

[Quivil]

9 minutes ago, Dannex said:

Elims aren’t gonna exe themselves.

What would you do if they did?

[dannnex male]

2 minutes ago, Tani said:

What would you do if they did?

This:

Spoiler

Edit: unless they just exed one of themselves which would just be a bus and that’s normal

Edited April 17, 2021 by Dannex

[Bridge-Four he/him]

12 minutes ago, Dannex said:

Edit: unless they just exed one of themselves which would just be a bus and that’s normal

What is a bus?

[Quivil]

12 hours ago, Bridge-Four said:

What is a bus?

They drive around and take people where they want to go.

 

Oh, you mean in SE?

That's when lots of people vote on one person to try to get others to vote on that person to get that person killed dead.

Edit: Oops nevermind that's a bandwagon (I think) (but is not a bus)

Edited April 17, 2021 by Tani

[Bridge-Four he/him]

1 minute ago, Tani said:

That's when lots of people vote on one person to try to get others to vote on that person to get that person killed dead.

Thanks.

[Quintessential she/her]

10 minutes ago, Dannex said:

We gotta get some discussion going here people, Elims aren’t gonna exe themselves. I see two possible ways to move forwards, analyzing the votes on TUO, and analyzing who would want to kill Liranil. I think the second would be more fruitful as the first might yield nothing.

I don't know how much we can get out of the votes on TUO at this point... I could conf-bias any of them being elim, but I could also easily see any of them being village (given when and how they were placed), so I doubt my confbiasing is actually gonna help any. 

I'm not sure what to think of Mat's late switch. I've vil gut-switched before, so I understand that, and it wouldn't really make sense for e!Mat to switch to voting someone that the team was probably planning to NK at that point anyway (I'm assuming they decided before the end of the cycle : P). Then again, maybe it would? Because e!Mat could switch from the main exe target (who was about to flip village) to someone who he knew would be NKd (switching close enough to the end of the cycle and with little enough reasoning that it was unlikely a train would build up on her) to gain vil credit? Okay yeah no this is also just confbias. I could see it either way, especially since he didn't switch until after I pointed out no one was trying to save TUO--making it unlikely it was some plan to gain vil-credit, maybe? Aghhh idk. 10:30pm!me shouldn't be trying to do serious analysis  

In case it helps anyone, here is (once again) a complete list of all votes placed last cycle, along with the reasoning for them:

Spoiler

• Quinn votes Liranil: poke vote.
• Mat votes Jondesu: poke vote.
• Dannex votes Archer: for suggesting we not bother organizing PMs.
• Dannex unvotes Archer: upon realizing Archer's post was pre-written.
• Illwei votes Quinn, unvotes Quinn, votes TUO: Quinn for early-village-reading Dannex, TUO for suggesting we organize PMs but saying they may not announce their votes.
• Bridge votes TUO: gut read.
• Quinn unvotes Liranil, votes Mat: because Mat is the only person in this game so far that I don't have an objection to voting, basically.
• Kings votes one of [Bridge, Dannex, Mat]: D1 gut reads.
• Archer votes TUO: Illwei voted them with reasoning (this in line with Archer's first post), also TUO's statements about how they intend to vote have been weird.
• Mat unvotes Jondesu, votes Liranil: this didn't actually happen here but this was when it was announced so I'm putting it here. No reasoning stated.
• Mat unvotes Liranil, votes TUO: TUO feels off this game, Mat concurs with Archer's analysis.
• Liranil votes TUO: security against a tie.
• Mat unvotes TUO, votes Liranil: gut on Liranil, plus didn't like that no one was trying to save TUO

Also the (stated) VC is currently 

Matrim (1): Illwei

Doing great there guys : P

Actually, here's a thing I can do: process of elimination! kind of. I don't know what to think about Mat but for the moment I'm leaning village on him tbh. Thinking otherwise feels IKYK-y and that's... never very helpful. Tani I read village for reasons I've stated previously; same with Dannex. Archer I'm now reading village for reasons that could currently be classified as PM reasons ig (I made my PM with him) but will soon be public thread knowledge (he ran a planned post by me to see what I thought; it read village to me. hence my read on him). So that leaves Gears, Jondesu, Illwei, Books, Bridge, Kings, and Pizza. Of those, Bridge is new and Jondesu is returning, so since they haven't given me any reasons to actively suspect them, I'm going to leave them be for the moment. My attacking Illwei is literal torture and turns into a thunderdome without fail, so I'm not gonna do that without good reason either. Pizza is relatively new and iirc didn't really know what they were doing last game either (not that I blame them; that game was even weirder than this one xD) so I don't think their lack of contribution is AI... Kings. There was something about Kings. Why the heck did Kings vote Bridge? @Kings_way why'd you vote Bridge? The reason stated for the [Bridge, Dannex, Mat] vote pool was "95% gut" iirc. What was the other 5%? Were there any specific posts that gut came from? 

Okay sorry this is tired!me's attempt at contribution  I'll come back tomorrow morning and fix all the grammar/spelling mistakes that have inevitably found themselves into this post and then reevaluate everything I said and probably regret most of it but oh well.

1 minute ago, Bridge-Four said:

What is a bus?

Not quite what Tani said, actually : P

A bus, or "bussing", is when an elim votes another elim in order to look less suspicious themself. Or, sometimes, when the elim team intentionally votes off one of their own (usually because that person was under a ton of suspicion anyway)

[Bridge-Four he/him]

10 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

A bus, or "bussing", is when an elim votes another elim in order to look less suspicious themself. Or, sometimes, when the elim team intentionally votes off one of their own (usually because that person was under a ton of suspicion anyway)

I see, thanks again.

[dannnex male]

5 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Because e!Mat could switch from the main exe target (who was about to flip village) to someone who he knew would be NKd (switching close enough to the end of the cycle and with little enough reasoning that it was unlikely a train would build up on her) to gain vil credit? Okay yeah no this is also just confbias.

I wouldn’t call that Confibias, just considering all the possibilities. I think confibias is a bit more extreme than that. More of a reach. This scenario is fairly possible, it would be trivially easy for an Elim to try this. 

13 minutes ago, Bridge-Four said:

What is a bus?

9 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

bus, or "bussing", is when an elim votes another elim in order to look less suspicious themself. Or, sometimes, when the elim team intentionally votes off one of their own (usually because that person was under a ton of suspicion anyway)

Yeah, it’s when the Elim team exes one of their own in order to make them seem more village. Comes from the expression “throw them under the bus”.

A similar term you should know is a WGG, Wounded Gazelle Gambit. It’s like the inverse of a bus. The Elim team attacks one of their own members during the night, someone who has some sort of protection. So that person survives the attack, and then they have pretty massive Vil cred for being attacked. 

[Illwei]

Hello

If e!kings then 1 of [mat, danex] elim

Discuss

[Mat he/him]

12 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Hello

If e!kings then 1 of [mat, danex] elim

Discuss

Kill Kings, if evil then kill Dannex :P.

Actually I don’t like reasoning things like that, but I do still kind of suspect Kings.

[dannnex male]

31 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Hello

If e!kings then 1 of [mat, danex] elim

Discuss

Erm, no? 

I have no control over what Kings says, it’s not reasonable to group two people together based entirely off of what one of them says. 

Edited April 17, 2021 by Dannex

[Illwei]

Intresting, Interesting...

[Mat he/him]

Kings

Lol I can totally see how someone could suspect me for my last post 
 

[Archer he/him]

2 hours ago, Tani said:

Hey guys! I'm Tani again! (happidance)(thanks Chaos!)

Huzzah! Shame you had to become his demon in exchange. Also, Tani, because I haven't village read you yet, whereas I've managed to temporarily clear pretty much everyone else who has posted a similar amount in my head. It's a process of elimination vote, and one to start a new wagon.I really hate how flimsy my reasons have been so far this game. It's all been meta. 

2 hours ago, Quintessential said:

10:30pm!me shouldn't be trying to do serious analysis  

Not to worry, 1am Archer is here to sort things out. (Also, can confirm Quinn PMed me.)

First of all, I apologize for exing you, TUO. I misread your posts and expected more vote movement. You seemed to be having fun, so your being village is painful.

Second, until Jondesu, PizzaPower, and Xino make meaningful posts, I’ll be ignoring them entirely. That helpfully reduces my suspect list to ten. Initial thoughts:

-Why was Liranil selected as the elim kill target? Rereading their posts, they made no controversial statements and would have been fairly hard for the village to read, but they voted TUO, which increased their likelihood of being mis-exed as they were wrong. Personally, if I wanted to make a low info kill, I’d have targeted someone like PizzaPower. Liranil was probably identified as more likely to vote, and therefore more likely to potentially exe an elim, but with so many people being village read (Quinn, myself, Dannex etc), I expected someone with village cred to be hit instead. I’m guessing that means someone fairly trusted is actually an elim, and they can’t kill off the most villagey people because when that person isn’t attacked within the first few cycles, people will take notice.

-I don’t think e!Mat is afraid of Liranil. So they didn’t try to get them exed, and then upon failing that, resort to using the elim kill. I can see e!Mat trying to make an IKYK situation, but I can just as easily argue that it’s unlikely the elims would risk exing someone they have publicly argued should be killed. I’m leaning towards the latter explanation.

-Free village points to anyone who tried to PM Liranil. I'll conf-town you even. Any takers?

-Why did so few people vote last cycle? 8/14 isn’t bad, but our ideal game plan is to make the elims have to pad the margins on one wagon to reduce the risk of another one secretly overtaking it and exing an elim. And we need to force their hand soon if we are to win. After seeing TUO’s wagon wasn’t being meaningfully opposed, we should have tried to bring some other options into the mix. Quinn said as much late in C1, so I’m reading them as village for it. Village points to Mat too for agreeing with them. And Dannex for saying this round that communication is good. But elims can say those kinds of things when they aren’t in any danger, so those aren’t confirmed reads.

-Ignoring my reads for a second, the flow of the exe appears to be directed towards traditionally less active players. I attribute that partially to the lack of thunderdoming and certain meta discussions happening in the community right now, but I still find it odd. We've got four days to find an elim. My gut says we're not on the right track. 

-Pre-game, I brainstormed what I think the elim profile would be under these circumstances. That led me to feign nonchalance about PM distribution because I was hoping to see how people would act if given a free choice. I’m guessing that elims were likely ambivalent about the whole thing, or sought to structure the distribution to their advantage. I doubt they were eager to be confrontational about it and draw suspicion, so village points to everyone who said something to the effect of ‘eh, I’ll just PM who I want to.’ By that logic, mild sus on Dannex and Tani (but they parroted their pre-game opinions) and kudos to Kingsway and Gears, but really, no one really came out hard against vote organization. I was going to give village points to anyone who did.

-I believe that the optimal elim PM making strategy is to have exclusively made PMs with villagers. This increases their influence. If we all announce who we sent a PM to (and who we received one(s) from, to check for consistency), when we get an elim flip, we can village clear whoever they sent a PM to. I’d also guess that each elim will target a different villager, so if we find someone who has received multiple PMs, and one of the people that sent a PM to them later flips elim, we can clear both the receiver and the other people who messaged the receiver. 

-This would give the elims a decent amount of information and allow them to systematically sever our lines of communication with their kills. However, I do not see this as a big loss. Players often hesitate to kill their PM buddies, which can look similar to elim team shielding. If we know who all is connected to who, that becomes irrelevant while giving us some valuable information from elim flips.

I also know that the first to volunteer information will probably be villagers, so I suggest we all agree to do it, then actually do it, if we're going to do it. Thoughts?

[Bridge-Four he/him]

 

39 minutes ago, Archer said:

This would give the elims a decent amount of information and allow them to systematically sever our lines of communication with their kills. However, I do not see this as a big loss. Players often hesitate to kill their PM buddies, which can look similar to elim team shielding. If we know who all is connected to who, that becomes irrelevant while giving us some valuable information from elim flips.

I also know that the first to volunteer information will probably be villagers, so I suggest we all agree to do it, then actually do it, if we're going to do it. Thoughts?

I am fine with giving my PM info, but my only objection(Not a big one though) is, why give any extra info to elims that we can save and/or hide?

I am fine with sharing the PMs but I think we should ask for consent from our PM-pair, if they don't want to give that info then we should respect that. 

[Quintessential she/her]

9 hours ago, Dannex said:

I wouldn’t call that Confibias, just considering all the possibilities. I think confibias is a bit more extreme than that. More of a reach. This scenario is fairly possible, it would be trivially easy for an Elim to try this. 

What I meant is, if I tried to argue that Mat was probably elim because of it, it would have been confbias. 

8 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Actually I don’t like reasoning things like that, but I do still kind of suspect Kings.

Why?

8 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Kings

Lol I can totally see how someone could suspect me for my last post 

Again, why? To both of those things. I didn't find your last post overly suspicious, so I'm curious why you thought people would. Especially since no one actually said they did : P

6 hours ago, Bridge-Four said:

I am fine with giving my PM info, but my only objection(Not a big one though) is, why give any extra info to elims that we can save and/or hide?

Well, first of all, they probably have a fair amount of that info anyway. Currently they have created 3 of the PMs in this game (of which there are a max of 12 rn, and possibly fewer). Beyond that, they can ask who their PM partners created PMs with, they can see anyone who created a PM with them, and they can ask if anyone else created a PM with their PM partner. So, chances are the elims, since they're collaborating, already know a fair amount about the distribution of PMs.

Beyond that, it's not like the elims can actually do much with that info. So they know me and Archer have a PM--so what? If they kill one of us solely for that, it means they're ignoring other, more important reasons to kill other people (which is a suboptimal strategy for them and therefore good for the village), and if they kill one of us for that and something else, then they likely woulda done it anyway because of the something else. Apart from that, there's not much harm that their knowing about PMs can do.

Current stated VC:

Matrim (1): Illwei
Kings (2): Quinn, Matrim
Tani (1): Archer

[Bridge-Four he/him]

38 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Well, first of all, they probably have a fair amount of that info anyway. Currently they have created 3 of the PMs in this game (of which there are a max of 12 rn, and possibly fewer). Beyond that, they can ask who their PM partners created PMs with, they can see anyone who created a PM with them, and they can ask if anyone else created a PM with their PM partner. So, chances are the elims, since they're collaborating, already know a fair amount about the distribution of PMs.

Beyond that, it's not like the elims can actually do much with that info. So they know me and Archer have a PM--so what? If they kill one of us solely for that, it means they're ignoring other, more important reasons to kill other people (which is a suboptimal strategy for them and therefore good for the village), and if they kill one of us for that and something else, then they likely woulda done it anyway because of the something else. Apart from that, there's not much harm that their knowing about PMs can do.

Okay but I still stand by the opinion that we should ask for their consent.

If someone doesn't give their consent or is rather hesitant, then we would have someone to add to the suspect list.

[Bridge-Four he/him]

(Double posting rn, sorry I guess?)

Me and Archer are PM-paired and that was the only PM I had, so I guess it is your turn to speak up.

 

 

[Quintessential she/her]

Just now, Bridge-Four said:

Me and Archer are PM-paired and that was the only PM I had, so I guess it is your turn to speak up.

Did you create the PM or did he?

[Bridge-Four he/him]

2 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Did you create the PM or did he?

...Neither of us, the GM did

But well he chose me, I didn't choose anyone as I did not know anything about anyone so I asked Ashbringer about it in something along the same lines of it. They told me that if I don't choose anyone then I would get a random one and I got interested in that.