Quick Fix 52: Dancing in the Mists

[Mat]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

*Proceeds to tinfoil Archer/Bridge/Illwei team*

 

11 minutes ago, Bridge-Four said:

Hey just so you guys know, I am taking my vote for Archer back because of something they said in the PM.

And am voting Mat for he is my lead suspect now.

*Proceeds to tinfoil it even more*

Mind saying exactly what that was?

Uhhh this is almost contradictory but @Illwei wanna switch to Bridge with me? :P.

[Quintessential]

So I have no idea what to do here. I'm reading Tani village, and Archer's attacks on her are pretty sus, but on the other hand they're so sus that I have a hard time imagining e!Archer using them. Like, the thing about being elim is that if you're gonna hard-tunnel on someone, you usually choose someone who was already under suspicion (which Tani really wasn't) and who has said or done stuff that's actually sus (which Tani hasn't), or at least someone around whom the circumstances are suspicious. That way, your efforts probably pay off and you still have plausible deniability when your target flips vil because there was something specific and concrete there that you can say made you suspicious of them.

Like, in QF50 I chose to focus my e!tunneling efforts on Dannex, who kept surviving exes because countertrains appeared last-minute and who had a scanning role that the village thought the elims would have (we didn't). He'd also tried to get vanillas (if there were any--there weren't) to claim, and once he was saved by vote-manip, which the village also thought the elims had (we didn't). It would have been nonsensical, on the other hand, for me to try to attack Mat or Illwei in that game simply because they hadn't been killed yet. 

So basically, the fact that Archer is attacking Tani specifically, instead of, say, Mat (Mat's who I would pick to tunnel on if I were elim and felt like doing that), seems more to me like villager-with-gut-read than elim-trying-to-get-villager-exed.

Of course, now there's this sudden idea of switching onto Bridge... Mat please keep in mind that e!Bridge only makes sense if A. the elims are deliberately playing suboptimally with their PMs or B. Bridge is lying about having not PM'd anyone (which is... ah, a risky thing for an elim to do, since it's like the only mechanic we have to work off of and it's getting a ton of attention).

Edited April 18, 2021 by Quintessential

[Mat]

1 minute ago, Quintessential said:

Of course, now there's this sudden idea of switching onto Bridge... Mat please keep in mind that e!Bridge only makes sense if A. the elims are deliberately playing suboptimally with their PMs or B. Bridge is lying about having not PM'd anyone (which is... ah, a risky thing for an elim to do, since it's like the only mechanic we have to work off of and it's getting a ton of attention).

Fair. Yeah. The rest of the post too.

But like- then who???

[Bridge-Four]

13 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Mind saying exactly what that was?

To be completely honest, I am unsure. I really can't make my mind up which one of you I suspect more.

I can give you a blurry idea, cuz if I read the game rules right I can't outright tell you everything said in the PM 

Firstly there was the message he sent me near the end of the last cycle where he suspected he was going to be NK'd, I was asleep then, so I saw it this cycle[Cycle 3] but well, if he was elim why would he ask me to forward the message if he died? [I don't think the elim can NK another elim.]

Then the Tani vote came through and tbh I still can't see any solid reason behind it. [M main reson to suspect Archer as elim]

But well as Archer PM'd me 'There is so less substance that you have to take the smallest leads to make anything of it' [Paraphrased]

But yeah, I am still unsure.

7 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

or B. Bridge is lying about having not PM'd anyone (which is... ah, a risky thing for an elim to do, since it's like the only mechanic we have to work off of and it's getting a ton of attention).

A) If I could prove it to you that I have no other PM then I would have. Or there is a way to, then tell me.

B ) If I am an elim, why would I really PM another elim? I would have gotten the elim doc anyways right?

C) Had I lied on the PM thing, the person I would have PM'd would have immediately told that I was lying. (If you think I would have PM-paired with an elim, please read  B ) again)

Edited April 18, 2021 by Bridge-Four
Clarified some parts

[Quintessential]

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

But like- then who???

Yeah that's what I'm trying to figure out. Vote analysis is essentially useless right now because there haven't been any sudden last-minute switches, near ties, or situations where anything is really AI. Besides which, in both C1 and C2 only just over half of living players voted. So by looking at votes I'd be missing a lot. 

PMs could be useful if we know who everyone had PM'd, but some people have refused to say, and there's also the possibility that the elims have decided to play suboptimally in order to throw us off. I'm mostly considering that possibility for the case where Archer actually is elim, because he's been heavily emphasizing PMs as a way of solving. 

My best guess is Jondesu at this point. Their post this cycle felt really off to me, and I'd been giving them the benefit of the doubt because I figured maybe they just hadn't been reading carefully? but I'm running out of ideas so I'm voting them for now.

1 minute ago, Bridge-Four said:

A) If I could prove it to you that I have no other PM then I would have.

B ) If I am an elim, why would I really PM another elim? I would have gotten the elim doc anyways right?

C) Had I lied on the PM thing, the person I would have PM'd would have immediately told that I was lying. (If you think I would have PM-paired with an elim, please read  B ) again)

I know, I know, that was my point lol I'm saying I think it's unlikely you're elim. I worked out the casework in wayyyy more detail at one point; the only plausible way I can think of for you to be elim is if you PM'd Archer, and when he told you that he PM'd you, you decided to play it off like you hadn't PM'd anyone in order to gain village credit. And that doesn't seem all that likely either. 

[Mat]

I’d say the only way Bridge is evil is if he’s teammates with Archer, when Archer had the elim team PM themselves and then emphasized PMs as a solving tool. Which makes sense, but it’s a theory that has no basis which is why I want to kill one of Bridge or Archer. The other elim in there would be Illwei or xino I think; Jondesu doesn’t fit with that team I feel like.

[Quintessential]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Jondesu doesn’t fit with that team I feel like.

Why not? 

[Mat]

3 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Why not? 

Didn’t he jump at you for asking people to share their PMs?

[Gears]

I exist, I'm alive, I did terrible at the math competition, and now I'm sad. 

The two main targets this cycle appear to be Archer and Taniel, with auxiliary suspicion on Bridge. [Update from Future!Gears: Wow, Bridge is so much more suspicious now that they've demonstrated their opinions. Why couldn't you have waited for about an hour?]

An important question from Future!Gears: Should we try for the tie? Since the goal is parity, it won't actually change when we lose. I know that anon voting makes that more difficult, but we can just X anyone who lies about their vote, since they are almost certainly an elim. We can tie Bridge and Archer, possibly. The Mat and Tani votes might make that difficult, but if we're bold, we can try to tie all of them [Do not do that. The mass tie was a joke. Do not do that.]

Sidenote: I am so glad that the threads aren't locked and merged. It makes isoing so much easier.

Archer iso.

Spoiler

C1

Spoiler

On 4/15/2021 at 3:54 PM, Archer said:

Sisar absent-mindedly rubbed the spike in their forearm. The cloth of their tailored suit was rubbing against it. It was a different kind of spike than the usual ones a creature like them bore. An upgrade of sorts, they decided.

They strolled along the edge of the dance floor. Their walking stick tapped lightly on the marble floor with every step they took, just out of sync with the beat of the song the band was playing. It was comforting to have it in their possession. They always felt more honest when wielding it. True to themselves even. And right then, they felt a deep desire to join the dancing.

With a cane, the arcane kandra can candidly can can. And so they did.

*

I’m here and excited to play! But I’m currently working on an essay due tomorrow, so I don’t expect to be very active until Saturday.

-I'm guessing a three-person elim team, as the win con is parity. But I'm terrible at these kinds of predictions, so don't put too much faith in that please. 

-I plan to sheep the most reasonable of Illwei’s votes this cycle. They have a knack for voting elims D1. I’ll make an effort to argue why I chose the option I do, but that’s my intention going in.

-I have someone in mind I plan to PM. I don’t think a chain system will remain intact or reliable for very long. I would prefer everyone just made a free choice, but am largely ambivalent on that front.

-I support using the coloured votes system to keep track of intentions. I foresee maybe 75% of those being accurate, then about a quarter of people are going to claim to have switched last minute or that they wanted to mis-lead the elim team. The elims benefit more from doing that than the villagers do, so if we can avoid normalizing that, I’d appreciate it.

-If you don’t want to commit to a public vote, I suggest you give us your top three suspicions and commit to voting one of the people on the list. Communication is important. Your goal should be to get village read so we can avoid mis-exing you. You need to give us some thoughts to analyze so we can do that. Thank you in advance.

Standard Archer long post. They notably say that their vote is based solely on Illwei, thus foisting the blame for any consequences upon the Wei.

On 4/15/2021 at 6:03 PM, Archer said:

Actually it's spelled Gneordien 

I'm really struggling to figure out why you're gut reading me as an elim. If it's any help, that post was a pre-write. I'll go against the grain and say ah ha! Your suspicions are performative! Gottem. 

As I alluded to earlier, I believe that the elims benefit more from limited accountability than the village does. At least if the exe is decided in public, we can debate its merits. Otherwise, it'll be a moot point, a bunch of people discussing their reasons for exing someone who has already flipped. 

Enter my request that people at least post their top suspicions. Name three people you might exe, make a public record of your reasons. That way the elims have to at least come up with reasonable excuses to exe their target. Otherwise they can just say afterwards that so and so was sus and I switched to them at last minute, my bad. 

I'm undecided whether we should declare who we plan to PM or not. We'd benefit by maximizing our PMs, but odds are there will be little overlap anyway. I'd like to be able to spot who is e-e versus who is a PM buddy with someone, so having information would be good. But I don't think it's vital information to have right now, as it isn't likely to be relevant very soon. 

But hey, I just found out I'll have a PM buddy, so yay

 

Good observation. 

Accounting for the X is a good idea for both elims and village since it allows them to be certain about the consequences of the X so they can determine whether or not they need to spend effort on ensuring that their members are safe. Paranoia dictates that e!Archer was trying to get knowledge for the elim team while getting village points by implying that an elim would do no such thing. PM planning is not a partisan issue, so that means nothing. 

On 4/16/2021 at 9:04 AM, Archer said:

Sisar read the OP and realized magic was discouraged at this party. They groaned. Not even a little spell? Where’s the fun in that?

They began exiting the dance floor, stopping to snag a slice of melon from the buffet on the way, before making their way up a spiral staircase to the first balcony. It was dark, so they procured a wax light from an alcove in the wall. It was frivolously shaped like a bird. Some people have too much money.

They made their way to the outside portion, which had a large cloth awning. There was a nice seat there, so they sat for a moment to rest their legs.

It was quiet. Too quiet. They began to think about the deadly disease they were afflicted with. Darn.

And so the kandra who can’t cast cantrips carried a capitalist canary candle and cantaloupe cross-section to the canopy covered chair and contemplated their cancer.

*

I think I’ll put a vote on TUO. Illwei voted for them, and they have good instincts D1. They also give me Flyingbooks in the LG vibes; they have upped their game. It’s unfortunate if it is an elim tell because I’d rather reward that than penalize it. I am also conscious of the fact that they were the first NK in the LG. But while my vote will make a three-person wagon on them, I’m expecting high vote turnout and plenty of late action which I won’t be around for. So this isn’t a killing blow in any sense. [A way to get a mix early without flak for their vote. De-emphasises the "killing blow" nature of their vote, which it certainly was. Seems like trying to act without consequences. I can see V!Archer doing this though.]

I know that’s all meta. My elim gut read on them is based on meta. To be fair to TUO, I’ll ISO them and highlight their most suspicious content.

 I'll be voting every round, and it will likely have a pun attached. So beware. -TUO

Regularly voting is the default, so by making an effort to declare it, perhaps they know in advance they will make controversial accusations. I like puns though. [Wrong. A good number of people don't vote every cycle. Order doesn't usually vote every cycle. Here, Archer is making a highstorm out of a gale.]

You, Archer, a little bit Tani, and Dannex, you and Tani are gut reads and Archer and Dannex feel village mostly because of their ideas, I see them as wrong, but village. 

I’m curious why you don’t trust Mat. It smells like recency bias.  

That is probably my weakest point, the reason I would prefer to not say who I'm voting is because, if I actually for some reason need to change last minute, I'll get instant sussed. All of my votes this game are going to be random due to my character. I also rarely get suspicions in the early cycles, so saying my vote in thread when I don't normally vote wouldn't make sense. Unfortunately, my vote this round is going on someone I trust, but that's what happens. 

If you’re randomly voting, your vote will rarely matter. There’s a two-vote threshold for exes. I’m generally not a fan of random voting, especially if you have reads like you said you have already, but this feels like you know it’s going to go poorly and are doing damage control early. [I also dislike random voting, but some people are Dedicated to the Cause. They do know it's going to go poorly since they have been forced to vote a trust, apparently. Again, highstorms from gales.]

Okay, let’s look at Gears. They often get ignored because of the structure of their posts, so this game I’m trying to keep a closer eye on them. [Thank you.]

Lumi: Useless poke vote [what's the point?]

Poke votes have less teeth, but only if people realize that. [I am fairly certain that almost everyone knows the value, or lack thereof, of a poke vote]

Lumi: Vil!Danex [really? I don't concur]

The Dannex is village argument has merit. Knowing they’re wrong, had they successfully exed me, it would have looked bad for them. I don’t think an elim would take that risk. [I mean, it would have been a good way to build a case against you gradually, citing a bad gut read and then confbias-ing their way through any counters. They did flip vil though. The reasoning here is strange enough that paranoia screams pocketing.]

Taniel: IKYK! [This statement, as well as Taniel's post wherein they agree, seems dramatically overstated, though Tani does have a very dramatic personality.

I agree, in retrospect. Same with everything Illwei has said so far. I’m leaning towards it just be personality, but I know Gneo/Tani’s got off-site experience, so they should know to be careful. They relented pretty quickly. If Quinn was an elim Tani just handed them what they thought was valuable information with little convincing. I’ll go ahead and guess Gneofromthematrix and Quinn are not e-e based on this though. It felt genuine.  [Archer later uses this as reasoning for why Tani is suspicious. Note the change in opinion. ArcherSuspicion++;]

 [Order's opinions have been consistently strange]

Order: Doesn't like getting suspicion [OrderSuspicion++; Who cares if you get suspected? What matters is what helps the village, not what helps you.]

I’m getting the sense that Gears plans to vote for TUO.  [Nope. They were strange in a way that seemed like a villager that wasn't trying to help the village, not an elim.]

Illwei: Will suspect them, 3 elims, PMs don't matter [true]

Generally a lot of agreement with Illwei in this summary, so that’s noted. I don’t think it’s overly suspicious though, because in their conclusion they mention it and call it strange.

Everything I didn’t quote from their post I agree with, so Gears is looking fairly clean at the moment. [Thank you.]

Good lad. Now why is everyone voting Mat? Did I miss something they said? (That's entirely possible) And are you sussing Dannex for the voting me then retracting it thing, or something else? 

Welp, I was village reading you for having the confidence to vote early, but I probably need to walk that back a bit. 

Early on is relative, I'll note. With no elim kills, this game finishes at the end of Day 4. That reminds me, elim kills will be weird in this game. They have to avoid hitting people who might be exed. [This statement is very confusing. That's how it always is.]

Commentary in bold because this post is long.

Conclusion as of C1: They seem to actively be trying to dispel any consequences as a result of their actions and [as you'll see in the C3 section] they change their mind on a bit of Tani stuff without reasoning on the alteration. Noted. Significantly.

C2

Spoiler

On 4/17/2021 at 0:03 AM, Archer said:

Huzzah! Shame you had to become his demon in exchange. Also, Tani, because I haven't village read you yet, whereas I've managed to temporarily clear pretty much everyone else who has posted a similar amount in my head. It's a process of elimination vote, and one to start a new wagon.I really hate how flimsy my reasons have been so far this game. It's all been meta. [Why vote if you don't have reasons to be suspicious of someone? I think this is a playstyle difference, but still. My paranoia acknowledges that it's easier to build a case against someone if you already have laid out a suspicion on them, regardless of whether or not that suspicion is well-founded.]

Not to worry, 1am Archer is here to sort things out. (Also, can confirm Quinn PMed me.)

First of all, I apologize for exing you, TUO. I misread your posts and expected more vote movement. You seemed to be having fun, so your being village is painful.

Second, until Jondesu, PizzaPower, and Xino make meaningful posts, I’ll be ignoring them entirely. That helpfully reduces my suspect list to ten. Initial thoughts:

-Why was Liranil selected as the elim kill target? Rereading their posts, they made no controversial statements and would have been fairly hard for the village to read, but they voted TUO, which increased their likelihood of being mis-exed as they were wrong. Personally, if I wanted to make a low info kill, I’d have targeted someone like PizzaPower. Liranil was probably identified as more likely to vote, and therefore more likely to potentially exe an elim, but with so many people being village read (Quinn, myself, Dannex etc), I expected someone with village cred to be hit instead. I’m guessing that means someone fairly trusted is actually an elim, and they can’t kill off the most villagey people because when that person isn’t attacked within the first few cycles, people will take notice. [Note that Danex is a prevalent village read here. They will soon lump Dannex into the "low-active not-trusted" demographic in order to promote their objective of implicating the trusted actives, particularly pushing Tani.]

-I don’t think e!Mat is afraid of Liranil. So they didn’t try to get them exed, and then upon failing that, resort to using the elim kill. I can see e!Mat trying to make an IKYK situation, but I can just as easily argue that it’s unlikely the elims would risk exing someone they have publicly argued should be killed. I’m leaning towards the latter explanation.

-Free village points to anyone who tried to PM Liranil. I'll conf-town you even. Any takers?

-Why did so few people vote last cycle? 8/14 isn’t bad, but our ideal game plan is to make the elims have to pad the margins on one wagon to reduce the risk of another one secretly overtaking it and exing an elim. And we need to force their hand soon if we are to win. After seeing TUO’s wagon wasn’t being meaningfully opposed, we should have tried to bring some other options into the mix. Quinn said as much late in C1, so I’m reading them as village for it. Village points to Mat too for agreeing with them. And Dannex for saying this round that communication is good. But elims can say those kinds of things when they aren’t in any danger, so those aren’t confirmed reads. 

-Ignoring my reads for a second, the flow of the exe appears to be directed towards traditionally less active players. I attribute that partially to the lack of thunderdoming and certain meta discussions happening in the community right now, but I still find it odd. We've got four days to find an elim. My gut says we're not on the right track. 

-Pre-game, I brainstormed what I think the elim profile would be under these circumstances. That led me to feign nonchalance about PM distribution because I was hoping to see how people would act if given a free choice. I’m guessing that elims were likely ambivalent about the whole thing, or sought to structure the distribution to their advantage. I doubt they were eager to be confrontational about it and draw suspicion, so village points to everyone who said something to the effect of ‘eh, I’ll just PM who I want to.’ By that logic, mild sus on Dannex and Tani (but they parroted their pre-game opinions) and kudos to Kingsway and Gears, but really, no one really came out hard against vote organization. I was going to give village points to anyone who did. [You were apathetic and ambivalent about the whole thing.]

-I believe that the optimal elim PM making strategy is to have exclusively made PMs with villagers. This increases their influence. If we all announce who we sent a PM to (and who we received one(s) from, to check for consistency), when we get an elim flip, we can village clear whoever they sent a PM to. I’d also guess that each elim will target a different villager, so if we find someone who has received multiple PMs, and one of the people that sent a PM to them later flips elim, we can clear both the receiver and the other people who messaged the receiver. 

-This would give the elims a decent amount of information and allow them to systematically sever our lines of communication with their kills. However, I do not see this as a big loss. Players often hesitate to kill their PM buddies, which can look similar to elim team shielding. If we know who all is connected to who, that becomes irrelevant while giving us some valuable information from elim flips. [Killing PM buddies can allow elims to lie about their PM buddy and be confirmed not E/E with someone.]

I also know that the first to volunteer information will probably be villagers, so I suggest we all agree to do it, then actually do it, if we're going to do it. Thoughts?

Commentary in bold [please note that the "if we all... ...the receiver" is not me. That was already in that formatting.]

On 4/17/2021 at 8:52 AM, Archer said:

Can confirm, I asked to have a PM with BridgeFour. 

Also, everyone please vote! Even if y'all just randomly pick someone, at least it'll scare the elims into action. 

My paranoia ponders the fact that perhaps e!Archer killed or X-ed their PM partner so they could be "confirmed" not E/E with Bridge.

Conclusion as of C2: Noted. Extremely. There are a great many changes in opinion.

C3

Spoiler

20 hours ago, Archer said:

The exe on TUO was too easy. And Dannex has a similar profile to Liranil; active, but not widely village read. Both of those concern me.

I received a PM from Kingsway that they never used. I also received PMs from Quinn, Mat and Illwei, and sent one to BridgeFour. (This disproves Illwei’s statement that they sent a PM to Liranil, by the way.)

I assume the elims coordinated their PM choices and decided to each message a different person. I assume I have not yet been elim killed so they can maximize their PM with me, and to disguise the active player(s) on their team. It may be that four villagers decided to PM me though, so let’s assume there’s zero to one elims in the group of Mat, Illwei, and Quinn. That means there’s two to three elims in the group of Gears, Tani, Jondesu, Xino, BridgeFour, and PizzaPower.

Note the change in opinion. Earlier, they said "Liranil was probably identified as more likely to vote, and therefore more likely to potentially exe an elim, but with so many people being village read (Quinn, myself, Dannex etc), I expected someone with village cred to be hit instead." indicating that Dannex is indeed widely read as village. They completely disregard the prior Dannex read, choosing to focus solely on profiling Danex into a beneficial category that implies elim!Tani based on strange reasoning.

15 hours ago, Archer said:

I started this post an hour ago, so the last four posts aren't considered. 

What’s pointing me towards Tani is my theorized elim profile is one of them is fairly active. I’m reading Quinn (their end of C1 posts seemed village), Mat (sussed me after I suggested they change votes from Kingsway, indicating they didn’t know their alignment), and Illwei as village (their attempt at becoming conftown was so ill conceived an elim wouldn’t have done it). After them, Tani is the most active player. [This is genuinely ridiculous reasoning. Firstly, empirical evidence shows that killing inactives doesn't mean that the team is active. Secondly, these "clears" are terrible. Anyone can "seem" village with posts. Mat's suspicion could just be falsified. Illwei was joking. These people aren't clear in the slightest [though I do read some of them as village], and Archer's complete disregard of them is absurd.]

The alternatives:

-PizzaPower posted once to say ‘hi’. Unreadable.

Jondesu has made two posts. Their only non-RP statement so far has been:

Obviously it wasn’t bussing and Kings was innocent, so so far Jondesu has been completely wrong. But this isn’t enough to go on, and more importantly doesn’t match the profile I’m looking for. [The profile thing is unreasonable. Assuming that the elims possess a certain demographic based on the kills leads into IKYK territory. I don't care if Tani is actually an elim at this point, I just don't think that this reasoning should be what kills them.]

-Xino has made one post:

He himself says he’s sub-active. I disagree with the vote, but at least it hasn’t been disproved yet and it had some reasoning.

-Gears has two posts total. His first I already analyzed and found little of note.

Similar tinfoil to Xino, but it’s valid enough not to be suspicious.

I think they’re the only person to really sus Dannex last cycle. Interesting Dannex has now died. But I’m inclined to think an elim wouldn’t kill someone who’d make their analysis look bad in retrospect.

Didn’t they swear off info kills last game? That’s an interesting inconsistency, but once again the e!self-inflicted contradiction would not be ideal. [I don't actually remember this. Not that this didn't happen, but my memory is trash. My opinion in the moment is the only one I have, regardless of opinions I've held in the past. Think 1984 and the speech scene. My terrible memory recalls only a dislike of killing people solely based off of the actions of other people.]

After all those players are eliminated, we’re left with BridgeFour and Tani, who both have a dozen or so posts. My guess is that BridgeFour as a rookie wouldn’t think of the strategy the elims are using. If they are an elim, they’d make fear kills and probably not be worried about being the last talkative person standing. So process of elimination brings me to Tani as my top suspect. [Archer completely disregards the elim doc. I know they've been an elim [because QF49], and I know they, as a rookie elim, strategised elim kills with other elims, so they should know that Bridge's opinions wouldn't drastically alter the course of the elim kill.]

Bold.

14 hours ago, Archer said:

Fair question. I wanted to explain my reason for voting Tani tonight so they’d have a chance to respond to it, then was going to ISO them tomorrow, but I’ll do it now. This post is going to be confbias because I’m trying to shade them here, but as I believe they’re an elim, it’s worth doing.

They’ve wanted to coordinate PM distribution throughout, and have shown interest in who received them from who. Could be innocent, could be an elim fishing. [I know you said you were shading, but wow, is this shade. Villagers had this opinion too. In fact, no confirmed elim has had this opinion [this is a joke].]

They said they were worried about giving away a good strategy, but relented as soon as Quinn said hey, you might as well say. In contrast, I, a villager, had thoughts about how we could catch elims based on kills and PMs, but I kept them to myself until they were relevant to avoid the IKYK. ["I, a villager". Hmm. Remember, Tani already wanted to share. Quinn assuaged her concerns, so she did as she wanted.]

This post didn’t actually make sense to me.

Once again, they did the call and response thing. I don’t understand why they didn’t just say elims distance! Or not! And here’s the implications! They’re asking for pre-validation of their points, which is just odd. [Not really? That seems like normal Tani.]

Relatable content. I like that they said who they have a PM with, because that’s helpful information, but otherwise, this doesn’t help much. Maybe it’s just their playstyle, but for the amount they’ve posted, I would have expected a little more substance. They had a lot of short, banter posts that I didn’t quote. But in a game where we’re struggling to cause controversy, so far Tani has been fairly neutral. [Tani doesn't post substance posts. Not many hyperactives post substance posts. They post quips.]

***

1. It's that you're active and the elims haven't been killing active players and because of the PMs I've recieved. [The kills thus far: Liranil, a C1 hard to read kill, and Dannex, a person who would have been mostly cleared if they had lived. I think the C1 thing can be attributed to the recent conversations we've had about inactives and murder. These kills don't seem like an elim team trying to avoid killing actives. It just seems like an elim team who kills randomly C1 and kills a soon-to-be-clear person C2.]

2. If myself, Quinn, Illwei, Mat, and you are village, one of us should have been elim killed by now. [Why? Certainty is a lie.]

That's the suspicious Mat I've come to know and love!  

-Illwei is my weakest read of the people I've got PMs with. But joking about something like that still feels overly bold for an elim. They seemed to actually want me to play along. [They joke like that all the time.]

-If there's no active elim, who is your top suspect? The rest of the pool has two or less posts in the last two cycles. 

-Tani has off-site experience, and is more familiar with the group than BridgeFour is. [...so? Remember QF49!Archer? You deferred the kill thoughts a lot.]

-If I sus Gears, I'll get zero response due to his IRL situation. It'd be a repeat of last cycle, when y'all sussed Kingsway and he didn't reply. [My apologies for my absence]

-I'm explaining why I'm voting for them. I could frame it as being based on the content of their posts, but that'd be misleading. See above though for the best red flags I could find. 

-We have two more kills before we lose. I'm narrowing my focus to what I see as our best chance of success. If there's no active elim, we're finished anyway. And the thread has been gravitating away from the top activity players, which I see as unusual, so there's no harm putting the spotlight back on them. I'm happy to take some heat if it means getting some voting action. [Your narrowing completely disregards all of the active players that aren't Tani. If you are village, you should really work on your PoE skills. Most of these "clears" are perfectly capable on being elim.]

The tone on this post was weirdly hostile. 

Bold.

13 hours ago, Archer said:

These are fair responses. My personal response to the situation of 2 would have been different. 4 still seems odd. And right now, they amount to better leads than I have on anyone else until I ISO some other high posters tommorow. 

Hm. Perhaps Dannex is the one I need to ISO instead. I've been going by multi game average contribution profiles, because that's what Elim me would use too. If Dannex regressed to their mean they'd be less threatening than if Illwei regressed to their mean. 

Bridge Four, your list is helpful, but without reasons attached, it's unconvincing. 

They attempt to put Danex in a box without even considering what actually happened.

Conclusion as of C3: So noted. So very, very noted.

Tani.

Spoiler

C1

Spoiler

On 4/15/2021 at 4:55 PM, Tani said:

I agree with Dannex. We should coordinate our PMs somehow. Not the Hub way, that breaks down waaaaay too easily.

Also I fixed the typos. (regarding, efficient)

Who, me? :innocent_blinky_face:

Imma do this too. Issa good idea. I'll put my votes in-thread like I'm accustomed to doing and put the last vote I make in my GM PM around rollover. (Hey Quinn, when's rollover in your time?)

Me too. We should totally always say when we're sus of someone.

Unless Quinn's Elim

 

So ya I exist. Do you exist?

rp may come eventually. maybe.

Nothing much to note.

On 4/15/2021 at 5:07 PM, Tani said:

How dare you.

Banter

On 4/15/2021 at 5:23 PM, Tani said:

AUGH! I want to say something but don't want to cause an IKYK! This has happened to me in (at least almost) every game I've played so far!

This feels exaggerated, but people have said that Tani is dramatic.

On 4/15/2021 at 5:26 PM, Tani said:

Aright then.

If we commit to this the Elims will make sure not to NK people "next to" them and we might be able to find them that way. By looking at who should have died according to the pattern the Elims set but hasn't.

Archer, do note that it was in the hypothetical scenario of the chain rule happening.

On 4/15/2021 at 6:12 PM, Tani said:

GNEORNDIN! It's GNEORNDIN!

That's actually what I thought too when I saw "wregueuardwing."

Banter

On 4/16/2021 at 6:41 AM, Tani said:

Please explain. (Please come hunt me down! I need a Sharder friend who I can talk to in person!)

This was in response to someone saying we should X near deads in the chain to help maintain the PMs.

Tani's always strange.

Banter.

On 4/16/2021 at 9:00 AM, Tani said:

Ok so are we sharing who we're PMing or not?

Questions.

Conclusion as of C1: Nothing, except for exaggeration that I've been told is standard personality.

C2

Spoiler

On 4/16/2021 at 3:49 PM, Tani said:

Would players be allowed to pinch-hit if they died?

Nothing

On 4/16/2021 at 4:18 PM, Tani said:

Steak is usually dead... whether or not you spend any time in thread...

Banter

On 4/16/2021 at 5:29 PM, Tani said:

How common is it for elims to distance?

A question, likely due to their relative inexperience. 

On 4/16/2021 at 6:30 PM, Tani said:

So technically it's far more likely that Mat isn't Elim this game because someone who he voted for was NKd.

I don't see how this is related to "distancing", but this is a valid conclusion [even though paranoia is screaming].

On 4/16/2021 at 7:33 PM, Tani said:

Mat voted Liranil twice. At least.

Banter

On 4/16/2021 at 9:08 PM, Tani said:

Hey guys! I'm Tani again! (happidance)(thanks Chaos!)

Banter

On 4/16/2021 at 9:22 PM, Tani said:

What would you do if they did?

Banter

On 4/16/2021 at 9:39 PM, Tani said:

They drive around and take people where they want to go.

 

Oh, you mean in SE?

That's when lots of people vote on one person to try to get others to vote on that person to get that person killed dead.

Edit: Oops nevermind that's a bandwagon (I think) (but is not a bus)

Banter

On 4/17/2021 at 11:03 AM, Tani said:

Okayyyy...

I've a PM with Quinn.

Strong vil reads on Mat and Quinn. No elim reads so far.

Open with information. 

23 hours ago, Tani said:

Nope, you're obviously dead.

Stop posting, O dead one!

Banter

Conclusion as of C2: No change. They haven't said much.

C3

Spoiler

18 hours ago, Tani said:

@Archer I'm confused. Please could you explain exactly why you want me dead so bad?

Last cycle you were like "Imma vote Tani because I read everyone else as vil" (or thats my interpretation) and this cycle you have a list of people that has 2 elims in it and you pick me to vote (also my interpretation). Is this... confbias? Gut? No reason? Am I secretly evil and just don't know it? Please explain what it actually is if my interpretations are wrong. Also please include all the bits that make me sus. all the reasons you think I'm elim.

 

Also I'm not gonna be on on Sunday so please respond before then if you can.

They have a good point.

14 hours ago, Tani said:

(Bolds from Tani)

[1] I'm always about this active. Also, really? You're voting me because I'm active?

[2] There's more than one elim and there's an elim doc. Therefore the elim strategy doesn't neccesarily have to come from only one person.

Archer

 

@Bridge-Four Have you previously played any Mafia-like games, online or off?

I would like to note that agreement means nothing reads-wise. I just also think that Archer's reasoning is terrible to the point of incredulity

14 hours ago, Tani said:

[1] So did Dannex.

[2] The "good strategy" (just quoting, not mocking) was in response to a hypothetical situation that sprouted from a hypothetical situation.

[3] Illwei misspelled "streak" as "steak" and steak is meat from a cow (iirc) so I said steak is usually dead because by the time it's called steak, the cow is no longer living. Has nothing to do with how active someone is in-thread.

[3] TL;DR: It was a joke. One that apparently Archer didn't get.

[4] I do that a lot when I'm trying to prove a point. It means I don't have to work as hard to get evidence and also I'm less likely to be wrong.

[5] I didn't have much to say.

They have good responses.

13 hours ago, Tani said:

Confusion.

Please explain how this works?

Oh! Post counts! I thought this was vote counts! 

Nothing

C3: Good responses.

Bridge

Spoiler

C1

Spoiler

On 4/15/2021 at 9:16 PM, Bridge-Four said:

Kiel walked into the Hastings mansion. It looked good, but nothing could surpass the beauty of Urithiru for him.

He walked up to the bar and picked a glass of wine.

Life spoke up as he took the first sip. So, this is where Mraize wanted us? Kiel nodded

He had worldhopped all the way round to Scadrial only to save that Hastings, he wished he knew why he was so important to save, but Mraize seldom told anyone more than they needed to know.

Well then, He thought, let's hope I have enough stormlight if damnation breaks loose.

*

Hi! I live(for now at least.)

The rollover was rough for me 1:00 PM PST is around 1:30 AM for me, so expect me to be a bit late.

I too am in support of the three suspects voting thingy.

Also if anyone is yet to PM-pair feel free to add me, I am new.

Also don't kill me, or else Mraize will come to say hi. 

Exists.

On 4/15/2021 at 11:56 PM, Bridge-Four said:

Pure gut feeling, I think Order is an elim.

I don't like this, but that could just be my opposition to gut votes.

On 4/16/2021 at 8:46 AM, Bridge-Four said:

Haha, that is mainly because I have played Mafia 2-3 times before with friends. But that was about it.

 

I too agree that PMs will become useless very early on, for we don't even know if the one we are messaging to is an elim (I would be very careful to say anything in the PMs personally)

And yeah, I completely agree with Quinn on the three suspects voting. If it is going to be a game of intrigue, then might as well keep people guessing.

Noted, but not as elim since elims want to be able to trust the vote counts as much as the next person.

On 4/16/2021 at 9:04 AM, Bridge-Four said:

Well, you can. But it would make it very easy for elims to cut off the connections that they want.

Against sharing. 

Conclusion as of C1: Noted, but not strongly.

C2

Spoiler

On 4/16/2021 at 9:37 PM, Bridge-Four said:

What is a bus?

Nothing

On 4/16/2021 at 9:40 PM, Bridge-Four said:

Thanks.

 

On 4/16/2021 at 9:52 PM, Bridge-Four said:

I see, thanks again.

Nothing

On 4/17/2021 at 0:46 AM, Bridge-Four said:

 

I am fine with giving my PM info, but my only objection(Not a big one though) is, why give any extra info to elims that we can save and/or hide?

I am fine with sharing the PMs but I think we should ask for consent from our PM-pair, if they don't want to give that info then we should respect that. 

I concur.

On 4/17/2021 at 8:16 AM, Bridge-Four said:

Okay but I still stand by the opinion that we should ask for their consent.

If someone doesn't give their consent or is rather hesitant, then we would have someone to add to the suspect list.

Kind of contradicts the "respect that" point from earlier.

On 4/17/2021 at 8:34 AM, Bridge-Four said:

(Double posting rn, sorry I guess?)

Me and Archer are PM-paired and that was the only PM I had, so I guess it is your turn to speak up.

 

 

Honesty [paranoia screams]

On 4/17/2021 at 8:41 AM, Bridge-Four said:

...Neither of us, the GM did

But well he chose me, I didn't choose anyone as I did not know anything about anyone so I asked Ashbringer about it in something along the same lines of it. They told me that if I don't choose anyone then I would get a random one and I got interested in that.  

I asked Ash. The people who didn't choose anyone don't get a PM. Bridge is wrong or lying.

On 4/17/2021 at 8:58 AM, Bridge-Four said:

 

I am yet to make my mind up, but I will vote Matrim or Kings.

At least they offer reasoning later.

On 4/17/2021 at 10:16 AM, Bridge-Four said:

The main reason for it has been the late vote switch in the last cycle. And a bit of this -

Though it seems quite obvious, it could also be the other way around, maybe it was made to make it look obvious, so that we leave Mat from our sus list.  (Maybe I am overthinking it.)

And a bit of gut read (Even though it was wrong the last time, sorry TUO!)

But as I am thinking of it, I sus Mat a bit less now (But I still sus you  for now)

Anyways I voted for Kings this cycle.

Edit- Oops I forgot to reason out Kings voting, it really is from what you(Quinn) and Mat said.

Good on Mat, sheep on Kings. Noted. 

On 4/17/2021 at 11:22 AM, Bridge-Four said:

Good Night to you too!

I'm also dropping off, will see you guys about 3-5 hours after the rollover happens.

And remember, Mraize will like to meet you if you kill Kiel, it won't be pleasant 

Banter

Conclusion: Noted for wrong/lying.

C3

Spoiler

14 hours ago, Bridge-Four said:

Yeah, I played it twice as far as I can remember. Once I was village and won. The second time I was elim and was caught in the first round : P

Nothing

13 hours ago, Bridge-Four said:

My list of who I think is aligned to which side

  Hide contents

1. Mat - Suspects (Gut, late vote change and the chance that Lin was killed to bring Mat village points)
2. Quinn - Village (Almost sure) 
3. Gears - Not Sure (Slightly towards village, but very slightly) (Mostly has been unbiased and I can't read anything between the lines.)
4. Tani - Village (Not completely sure) (I don't see anything suspicious and she has been helpful)
5. Archer - Suspects [The whole Tani voting has thrown me off guard, I had village read you first but now I really don't, many others have put you up in the elims list (Not my reason, but it is still worth mentioning), just look at the number of PM's you have, I would have killed you down in the last cycle if I were elim to cut down so many contacts at the same time.]
6. Jondesu - Not Sure 
7. Illwei - Not Sure (But seems more elim than village) (Mostly gut)
8. xino - Not enough messages to think of anything
9. Pizza - Not Sure

Interesting reads. Note the switch from Archer to Matrim.

13 hours ago, Bridge-Four said:

I have been elim reading you from the last turn and some of my suspicions still stay.

As for Archer I think I have stated my reasons above. If I am not wrong, you and Archer have a PM too, you might as well be bussing Archer. 

Their reasoning here is terrible.

2 hours ago, Bridge-Four said:

Well, I am voting Archer this cycle. But I still sus you Mat.

Alright then.

58 minutes ago, Bridge-Four said:

Hey just so you guys know, I am taking my vote for Archer back because of something they said in the PM.

And am voting Mat for he is my lead suspect now.

This. Noted.

33 minutes ago, Bridge-Four said:

To be completely honest, I am unsure. I really can't make my mind up which one of you I suspect more.

I can give you a blurry idea, cuz if I read the game rules right I can't outright tell you everything said in the PM 

Firstly there was the message he sent me near the end of the last cycle where he suspected he was going to be NK'd, I was asleep then, so I saw it this cycle[Cycle 3] but well, if he was elim why would he ask me to forward the message if he died? [I don't think the elim can NK another elim.]

Then the Tani vote came through and tbh I still can't see any solid reason behind it. [M main reson to suspect Archer as elim]

But well as Archer PM'd me 'There is so less substance that you have to take the smallest leads to make anything of it' [Paraphrased]

But yeah, I am still unsure.

A) If I could prove it to you that I have no other PM then I would have. Or there is a way to, then tell me.

B ) If I am an elim, why would I really PM another elim? I would have gotten the elim doc anyways right?

C) Had I lied on the PM thing, the person I would have PM'd would have immediately told that I was lying. (If you think I would have PM-paired with an elim, please read  B ) again)

The thing is this: I think the two of you are lying about having a PM. Maybe you forgot to submit a PM or something, but Archer's real PM buddy got brutally murdered and then they lied about having a PM with you. Paranoia.

Conclusion: I really don't like their votes.

I can see Archer and Bridge as elims lying about having a PM together by murdering their PM buddies.

29 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

I know, I know, that was my point lol I'm saying I think it's unlikely you're elim. I worked out the casework in wayyyy more detail at one point; the only plausible way I can think of for you to be elim is if you PM'd Archer, and when he told you that he PM'd you, you decided to play it off like you hadn't PM'd anyone in order to gain village credit. And that doesn't seem all that likely either. 

6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I’d say the only way Bridge is evil is if he’s teammates with Archer, when Archer had the elim team PM themselves and then emphasized PMs as a solving tool. Which makes sense, but it’s a theory that has no basis which is why I want to kill one of Bridge or Archer. The other elim in there would be Illwei or xino I think; Jondesu doesn’t fit with that team I feel like.

You assume they were honest. That is a fallacy. I like the murdering PM buddies theory. 

Does the general populace want to try and tie them? If we're wrong, we lose nothing [since it wouldn't change time to parity], and if we're right, we give ourselves an additional mix before XLo. If someone tampers with the vote or lies about their vote, we can execute them.

Could I have a "vote count" so I can see where we stand? I'm a bit behind the times.

[Quintessential]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Didn’t he jump at you for asking people to share their PMs?

He jumped at me for it, while totally ignoring that Archer had done the same. I linked to the post where Archer suggested it originally, but Jondesu appears not to have seen that yet, or if they have, they haven't acknowledged it.

2 minutes ago, Gears said:

Could I have a "vote count" so I can see where we stand? I'm a bit behind the times.

Tani (2): Archer, Illwei
Archer (2): Matrim, Tani
Matrim (1): Bridge
Jondesu (1): Quinn

[Mat]

4 minutes ago, Gears said:

Does the general populace want to try and tie them?

I think since evil!Bridge makes sense mainly just with evil!Archer, tying them wouldn’t do a whole lot. I don’t know which one of them would be a smarter kill, though. An evil Bridge flip leads to evil Archer, but a village Bridge flip doesn’t lead much and Archer still could be evil. It’s similar for Archer, an evil Archer flip suggests evil Bridge but village Archer doesn’t much of anything. So I don’t know. But I’m feeling good about either of those as far as the amount of resistance they’re getting.

Edited April 18, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Quintessential]

@Gears @Matrim's Dice I don't think we should try to intentionally tie it. To do so when there otherwise wouldn't be a tie would be to coerce people into voting for an option that they otherwise might not have chosen. If one of you has the opportunity to tie it, then go for it (it won't actually effect when parity is reached; the beauty of having an odd number of elims), but don't try to convince the rest of us to do the same. 

[Mat]

1 minute ago, Quintessential said:

@Gears @Matrim's Dice I don't think we should try to intentionally tie it. To do so when there otherwise wouldn't be a tie would be to coerce people into voting for an option that they otherwise might not have chosen. If one of you has the opportunity to tie it, then go for it (it won't actually effect when parity is reached; the beauty of having an odd number of elims), but don't try to convince the rest of us to do the same. 

Yeah, I don’t think we should tie either, just kill one of the two  

[Gears]

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I think since evil!Bridge makes sense mainly just with evil!Archer, tying them wouldn’t do a whole lot. I don’t know which one of them would be a smarter kill, though. An evil Bridge flip leads to evil Archer, but a village Bridge flip doesn’t lead much and Archer still could be evil. It’s similar for Archer, an evil Archer flip suggests evil Bridge but village Archer doesn’t much of anything. So I don’t know. But I’m feeling good about either of those as far as the amount of resistance they’re getting.

The point is as follows: If we're wrong, we lose nothing. Parity still happens at the same time. If we're right, we give ourselves an extra mix before we're doomed [since we kill 2 elims in a cycle]. If just one of them is an elim, then we also lose nothing compared to if we correctly X-ed the elim, and since either could possibly be an elim independent of the other, we'd save ourselves the suspicion. But alas, the general populace seems to disagree.

I hereby swear to have my vote on one of Bridge or Archer by the end of the cycle. I suspect Archer more, but I want to encourage the tie between the two. If Bridge remains an auxiliary option, I will likely switch to Archer as I think their suspicion on Tani is entirely unfounded and defended with flimsy, twisted evidence. Basically, if it's not tied near rollover, I'll switch. I may not have time to post about it because I will be busy until right before rollover.

And now for some long overdue RP.

It had been a long time since Roko Vin had attended a ball, and it she still didn't know how to dance properly. The only dance she knew was that of steel and iron, zinc and brass, Pushing and Pulling. But alas, the dancing had not lasted long, for a great many people had offended the hosts and were tossed out of windows, and another great many had been defenestrated without the hosts' permission. Considering that Vin was in fact here to throw people out of windows, she probably didn't have much room to criticise, but she truly felt that defenestration was a bit tacky. Altogether too much screaming, and such a mess at the end. She preferred coins and the glinting shine of steel and the quiet gasps of a dying man. But no, she had been hired to throw people out of windows. Truly unfortunate. All the coins in the world couldn't compensate for the fact that her ears would suffer for the next week. And the mess... No, she would never take a job of this sort again.

[---]

Heyo

I legit have not posted one post from my computer this game. Danex, i dont know how you do it. I want to kill myself its so frustrating.

Aaaaaaanyways-

Right. Archer-mat connection to me is that in mine and archers pm he told me he village read quinn for suspecting liranil the day before she died. I never even seen this, this was while mat was talking about how he wouldnt do that as an elim. Or something like that. It felt like archer was trying to get me to comment on Mats innocence instead of outright doing it himself, by trying to convince me that quinn was innocent through the same logic. 

This either leads to me thinking that e!mat or e!quinn means e!archer. The fact that Quinn cleared herself and Mat from a e!archer makes me wonder about the implications there, and im wondering about a specific post, that im on mobile so i aint quoting it rn, where Quinn basically pre-flips e!archer by saying that bridge cant be an elim because that implies something about the elim team. This either is a preflip of her or archer or Mat, or somehow operating with TMI on the elims. 

Basically assuming bridge cant be an elim because it wouldnt make sense for the elim team doesnt make sense in this scenario where we dont know any other elims. 

 

[PizzaPower55]

Bridge

Edit: firstly i didnt know that putting a colon and then an end parentheses would do an emote, i did not intend that. secondly i have decided that i was an idiot 1 minute ago and Bridge Archer

Edit 2: i find it ironic that my reputation thing is bridgeman lol

Edit 3: i unbolded everything except the votes because yes

Edited April 18, 2021 by PizzaPower55
yes

[Jondesu]

15 hours ago, Archer said:

The tone on this post was weirdly hostile. 

Sorry about that. It was meant to be mildly hostile, not weirdly hostile.

Basically, I have little to go on, and strategy suggestions have often gone wrong in games I’ve played before. I prefer keeping my cards close to my chest. 
I did indeed miss that Archer suggested that first, which does shift my suspicions somewhat, though I remain suspicious of you to a degree (then again, I remain suspicious of just about everyone in these games, as everyone should, with only slightly less suspicion of some people after a while). I’m gonna get on my computer at some point here and try to work through this better than I can on mobile, but due to the strategy discussion I feel most confident voting for Archer at this point. I’ll put that in via my GM PM now too, btw.

[Archer]

Because of all the copy-pasting I did, this post will be a formatting nightmare under the spoiler tags. You've been warned. 

Mat ISO:

Day One

Spoiler

 

I mean, this is the kind of thing you don't announce if you are planning on doing it  elim!Illwei in this situation can just... not vote a teammate now that they know. And of course village!Illwei isn't guaranteed to hit one anyway so killing them later for not doing so is a bad idea (Yes, I know you didn't suggest this, just wanted to say that before anyone does :P)

      Someone had to say this. It was a bad plan, so I expect either alignment would have made that criticism.

Also seconded [that we should just choose whoever we want to PM]. I don't have a person yet, but I'll decide later and PM them.

      Takes an independent stance, which I wouldn’t expect an elim to do.

I'm going to be coloring my votes in thread parallel to my final votes in my PM so that everyone can see. Though if I vote in thread on someone I know it won't stay on (Ex: C1 poke vote, like so: Jondesu) I won't put that in my PM to save Ash some time.

So yes, that vote is more meaningless than any other C1 vote I've ever done. Welcome back, Jondesu!  Excited to play with you.

      That gives the poke zero teeth, so they’re trying to avoid retaliation?

      [Sidenote: I’d forgotten Dannex stab voted me. A little delayed for a ML set-up though]

Was going to say how it probably was a prewrite, Archer already did though.

You can coordinate whatever, but I’m gonna PM who I want to PM  And I’m not saying who I did either :P. At least not right away.

      Once again, I’d have thought the elims would just sheep the group consensus, but maybe it was his plan to butter me up and PM me!

[Illwei votes for Mat] Well dang, what am I supposed to put here then...? I'll just point out the 'yet' and say I'm waiting

      Pretty chill response.

[Illwei susses for sussing me for sheeping Illwei] Yeah there's nothing I can really say about this. I was trying to reply to every one of Archer's points, I think, though I definitely would have said that anyway and still would. I don't find it suspicious though, it's just not something I would have said.

      I believe them, but the way they disengage from the issue is interesting.

Also agree on watching Quinn-Dannex... don't remember why exactly though.

Dunno how to feel about Order's vote patterns. Random votes are about as helpful as not voting at all but it's also NAI and I'm null reading that specific thing. Idk.

      Very vague suspicions here. (Note: they appear to have been added on to a late night post shortly before bedtime)

[To King’s suspicions of Bridge, Mat, and Dannex] Gut against this. I think maybe because of their suspicions? There is literally no reason for that (or this:) but I think if Kings is an elim Bridge or Dannex is also

Bold team prediction right here: Kings/Dannex/Quinn Yeah no I'm not going with that. Full team predictions are a bad idea right now

      Tinfoil: they eventually killed Dannex to discredit their elim team guess. It’s an easy post to poke holes in because I agree, they were weird guesses.

Yeah I didn't because it wasn't going to stick :P. TUO

      Once again, they are using poke votes weakly in this game.

I could agree with that (as in the first sentence. lack of opposition is kind of odd) and I'd personally switch back to Liranil. I have no clue why I voted her originally, it was... something in the first post, not the part about being busy, but rereading it the post seems fine, so I'm not sure. But Liranil's recent post does have things I don't like... a lot of stating the obvious to me, and jumping on TUO. I get that ties kill both, but if there's a day to do it it's D1.

Y'know what the vote margin is large enough. Going with my gut. Liranil.

And keep up the light sus on me too  Maybe this way I can dodge the NK and survive a village game other than the AG

      TUO was apparently too far gone by then, so his vote means nothing. If you want to tinfoil this, it’s a brilliant move to get off a villager wagon and by NKing the person he attacks at the end, he diverts suspicion from himself because that’d be too obvious.

      Theoretically supporting a D1 tie is a red flag for me.

And it would be nice to survive another village game...

      Maybe the kills are hitting weird targets because the elims feel guilty for hitting the usual targets?

 

Day Two

Spoiler

 

...Here's where I tinfoil that Liranil was killed to make me look bad :P.

                Right out the gate with it, huh.

So technically it's far more likely that Mat isn't Elim this game because someone who he voted for was NKd. -Tani

            Gets support from Tani. HMMM.

I trust Archer. For now.

            Smart lad.

[Illwei: If e!kings then 1 of [mat, danex] elim. Discuss] Kill Kings, if evil then kill Dannex :P.

Actually I don’t like reasoning things like that, but I do still kind of suspect Kings.

            Convenient Kings got killed, huh. Blows this theory out of the water.

Kings-Archer-Dannex is way to obvious to actually be the team, right? Or are the elims just not distancing this game?

I would like the exe today to be on one of them, but I guess I don't need it to be. I'd like it not to be on me because I know exactly how well that will turn out and so far I have seen literally no reasoning against me so that's cool.

Bridge Four is probably village, in my opinion.

             We’re tired of social distancing all the time, okay. I’m glad Kings died! Blows that theory out of the water!

            To be fair, I don’t think the reasons to vote them were well articulated either.

[B4: Voted Mat for late switch] If you're sus of late switches, you'll love the EoD sometimes xD Late switches are normal, to say the least.

But seriously, I unvoted a villager because I didn't like the train, and then voted the person that was killed. It's more likely that Liranil was their kill before I voted them, not after, also. (Could we look into that? Probably not.)

If TUO had flipped elim, sussing me for my switch would be fair. But they didn't

            They are normal… usually. This has been a weird game.

[I think killing Kings is optimal at this point since them flipping elim will semi-clear Mateo and implicate Danex, and them flipping vil will semi-clear Danex. If I fail to vote, it's because the struggling internet here died right before I succeeded in doing so. -Gears

Possible teammate? I don’t know why he’d info kill otherwise]

Keeping vote half self pres and half because I think Kings is elim.

Gut against xino but take that with the grain of salt that he voted on me in that post for something I didn’t do :P.

            Mat is a sussing machine, but they never seem to go very far.

 

Day Three

Spoiler

 

I had a PM with Dannex. He created it.

...Something about the kills doesn’t seem right. I need to think about this. I feel like I should know what’s going on more than I do.

            Huh. Waste of your PM network, especially considering that info hadn’t come out yet.

In the larger group, I’d say xino or Jondesu. Smaller group I’d say... Illwei, though I trust the smaller group okay. So maybe it’s you/xino/Jon :P.

            Bold guesses for people who hadn’t posted much.

Commented about how I haven’t sussed him yet (changed now xD), I mentioned I wouldn’t mind Archer being elim because it might semi-clear me and he agreed... I think he posted one of his posts in the PM before the thread and asked me what I thought of it. The one about other people’s PMs I think. Edit: Oh yeah and asked me to switch off Kings

            Accurate.

Reads List:

Village:

• (Me)
• Quinn
• Tani

Slight Village:

• Illwei
• Bridge

Null:

• Gears (+)
• Pizza
• Jondesu (-)

Slight Elim:

• Archer
• xino

Disagree with elim reads. Having two wrong people down there to mix is enough in a four cycle game. Xino should be more null.

All that’s about what others haven’t done...But what has Tani done?

            Fair question, although it ignores my entire theory.

Hmm I’ve seen enough... Archer…. So I’m... hesitant, and that was why the vote didn’t come sooner. But Quinn’s post convinced me.

            Rood. But at least they foreshadowed it with the reads list.

How are people elim reading me and Archer at the same time? I don’t understand that.

            Valid question because he made a PM with me.

If Archer flips vil Bridge is sus

            I can see the reasoning, although it’s implied reasoning, so only half marks.

*Proceeds to tinfoil Archer/Bridge/Illwei team*

             But… the PMs…. (This is why I wanted PM connections to be known, so we could tell the difference between elim groups and PM buddies.)

I’d say the only way Bridge is evil is if he’s teammates with Archer, when Archer had the elim team PM themselves and then emphasized PMs as a solving tool. Which makes sense, but it’s a theory that has no basis which is why I want to kill one of Bridge or Archer. The other elim in there would be Illwei or xino I think; Jondesu doesn’t fit with that team I feel like.

I think since evil!Bridge makes sense mainly just with evil!Archer, tying them wouldn’t do a whole lot. I don’t know which one of them would be a smarter kill, though. An evil Bridge flip leads to evil Archer, but a village Bridge flip doesn’t lead much and Archer still could be evil. It’s similar for Archer, an evil Archer flip suggests evil Bridge but village Archer doesn’t much of anything. So I don’t know. But I’m feeling good about either of those as far as the amount of resistance they’re getting.

           What happened to “If Archer flips vil Bridge is sus”? Is Bridge sus either way now?

 

Hi, Gears! Sorry you lost. Right now it’s 7v:3e. If we exe one and NK one, it becomes 5:3 (Exlo). If we mix two, and NK one, it’s 4:3 (Exlo). I understand the logic.

Responses to ISO:

Spoiler

 

Standard Archer long post. They notably say that their vote is based solely on Illwei, thus foisting the blame for any consequences upon the Wei.

Fair. It’s a gimmick as much as RNG is. Bad strat, unless it works.

Accounting for the X is a good idea for both elims and village since it allows them to be certain about the consequences of the X so they can determine whether or not they need to spend effort on ensuring that their members are safe. Paranoia dictates that e!Archer was trying to get knowledge for the elim team while getting village points by implying that an elim would do no such thing. PM planning is not a partisan issue, so that means nothing. 

Fruitful discussion is the only way we win this game.

[A way to get a mix early without flak for their vote. De-emphasises the "killing blow" nature of their vote, which it certainly was. Seems like trying to act without consequences. I can see V!Archer doing this though.]

True, although why would e!me need to cast it if non one on my team was in danger? I thought there would be some movement, but I didn’t feel pressured then.

 [Archer later uses this as reasoning for why Tani is suspicious. Note the change in opinion. ArcherSuspicion++;]

            The case for Tani is weak, but better than voting a village read.  

[This statement is very confusing. That's how it always is.]

I was expecting more multi-wagon close-to-ties, so they’d be forced to go for people with zero votes on them because of vote shifts and hidden votes. Usually if it’s a close wagon of two people and one flipping elim means the other is certainly village, you can NK the one you know will flip village. In this case, trying to do stuff like that risks wasting an NK because secret votes might move the wagons a lot.

[Note that Danex is a prevalent village read here. They will soon lump Dannex into the "low-active not-trusted" demographic in order to promote their objective of implicating the trusted actives, particularly pushing Tani.]

I remembered Dannex saying they were village read but not actually why or them saying much.

[You were apathetic and ambivalent about the whole thing.]

            I had a scheme!

 [Killing PM buddies can allow elims to lie about their PM buddy and be confirmed not E/E with someone.]

            Only if people die with their buddies’ identity, which I’ve been trying to avoid.  

My paranoia ponders the fact that perhaps e!Archer killed or X-ed their PM partner so they could be "confirmed" not E/E with Bridge.

They are still alive. You means Kings? You’ll note I didn’t vote for them AND tried to get Mat to switch off of them.

Note the change in opinion. Earlier, they said "Liranil was probably identified as more likely to vote, and therefore more likely to potentially exe an elim, but with so many people being village read (Quinn, myself, Dannex etc), I expected someone with village cred to be hit instead." indicating that Dannex is indeed widely read as village. They completely disregard the prior Dannex read, choosing to focus solely on profiling Danex into a beneficial category that implies elim!Tani based on strange reasoning.

            I didn’t read Dannex as village, so that’s where that came from.

[This is genuinely ridiculous reasoning. Firstly, empirical evidence shows that killing inactives doesn't mean that the team is active. Secondly, these "clears" are terrible. Anyone can "seem" village with posts. Mat's suspicion could just be falsified. Illwei was joking. These people aren't clear in the slightest [though I do read some of them as village], and Archer's complete disregard of them is absurd.]

I took it as a given that they were village read and added those as reasons for my gut reads. Also, by the PM logic, two of them are guaranteed village to me, so I might as well ignore the third, who may or may not be an elim.

 [The profile thing is unreasonable. Assuming that the elims possess a certain demographic based on the kills leads into IKYK territory. I don't care if Tani is actually an elim at this point, I just don't think that this reasoning should be what kills them.]

            I’m trying to get value kills because I haven’t liked the last two.

[Archer completely disregards the elim doc. I know they've been an elim [because QF49], and I know they, as a rookie elim, strategised elim kills with other elims, so they should know that Bridge's opinions wouldn't drastically alter the course of the elim kill.]

The better logical fallacy here is that I ignored the fact that the reason for the active kills may have been one of my PM buddies necessitating it, so the ones in the other pool could be sub-actives.

["I, a villager". Hmm. Remember, Tani already wanted to share. Quinn assuaged her concerns, so she did as she wanted.]

            It still felt performative.

[Tani doesn't post substance posts. Not many hyperactives post substance posts. They post quips.]

This has actually been throwing me off all game. Liranil probably posted more words than them C1, but I remember Tani more.

[Your narrowing completely disregards all of the active players that aren't Tani. If you are village, you should really work on your PoE skills. Most of these "clears" are perfectly capable on being elim.]  

More data helps. This has been useful for reading you at least. Most of Gears’ points have been critical, but valid. The timing could have been better, but that’s life.

 

Quote

Jondesu: Sorry about that. It was meant to be mildly hostile, not weirdly hostile.

I actually skimmed it when I first read it. The second time I read it seemed less aggressive, so apologies for that. 

****

So where does that leave me? Between Quinn and Gears' points, I've abandoned my theory on the elim kill choices. Realistically, Tani isn't in danger right now and I'm not sure my voting them accomplishes much today. In my discussion with B4, they said their top reason for voting Mat was their late vote switch, and I don't see that the same way. I'm not ready to vote them. Tani Whoever I think of in the next two hours

[+Lotus]

This was meant to be a hour warning but I got distracted... so err 50 minutes until rollover!

[Quintessential]

VC:

Tani (2): Archer, Illwei
Archer (4): Matrim, Tani, Pizza, Jondesu
Matrim (1): Bridge
Jondesu (1): Quinn
Bridge (1): Gears

Other things...

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

Right. Archer-mat connection to me is that in mine and archers pm he told me he village read quinn for suspecting liranil the day before she died. I never even seen this, this was while mat was talking about how he wouldnt do that as an elim. Or something like that. It felt like archer was trying to get me to comment on Mats innocence instead of outright doing it himself, by trying to convince me that quinn was innocent through the same logic. 

So, Archer told you that Mat vil-read me for suspecting Liranil? Okay, I have no idea what this means because I never did suspect Liranil. Archer village-read me because I pointed out that there was no opposition to the TUO train, and therefore TUO was probably village. Or at least that's what he told me. 

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

This either leads to me thinking that e!mat or e!quinn means e!archer. The fact that Quinn cleared herself and Mat from a e!archer makes me wonder about the implications there, and im wondering about a specific post, that im on mobile so i aint quoting it rn, where Quinn basically pre-flips e!archer by saying that bridge cant be an elim because that implies something about the elim team. This either is a preflip of her or archer or Mat, or somehow operating with TMI on the elims. 

I cleared myself and Mat (and you) if Archer is elim because all three of us PM'd him. In retrospect, I'm realizing that if Archer's elim it probably does mean that at least one elim PM'd another elim, given how much he's emphasizing that that shouldn't be the case, but at the time my thinking was that each elim would PM a different villager.

I cleared Bridge for reasons that have nothing to do with Archer: Bridge didn't PM anyone (that we know of). Nobody has contradicted that claim yet, and at the time he made it, the only two people who were dead were TUO and Liranil (whom he wouldn't have PM'd anyway because it was obvious they were going to die). I don't think it makes sense for an elim to have chosen not to PM anyone, or at least not unless the team is really fond of IKYKs, so I'm not so worried about Bridge being elim for the moment. That's all.

*rubs eyes* sorry @Archer I don't think I have time to read your ISOs right now... I have a bunch of other stuff to write and we've only got 40 minutes left in the cycle. I promise I'll go back and read them later, but in the meantime I'd appreciate it if you'd summarize the main points/most important things you found.

Okayyyy so, let's do this. People who have at various points seemed to want Archer dead:

• Matrim
• Tani
• Bridge
• Gears
• Pizza
• Jondesu

People who have kind of not wanted Archer dead

• Myself (I like having people to PM)
• Illwei
• Archer (duh)

People who haven't been on to express their opinions on Archer:

• Xino

Uhhh so yeah. I suppose there you have it. If Archer's elim, your most likely teams following that are Archer/Illwei/Xino, and for those of you who don't know I'm village, Archer/Illwei/Quinn and Archer/Xino/Quinn. If Archer's really elim, that makes things pretty simple, doesn't it? 

Hmmmm

@xinoehp512 please vote. Pretty please. I wanna have a cycle where everyone votes  I don't care who you vote for--vote for me if you want! But the more solid opinions everyone expresses, the more information we have going forward.

Oh, yeah, and Matrim (Jondesu). Purely because I found your reaction to my Jondesu vote... rather odd. You and I were discussing the possible options other than Tani and Archer. You weren't sure where to go once I'd pointed out the flaws in the cases for both of them, and you asked me--in an indirect manner--who it could be, if not Tani or Archer. I suggested Jondesu as a starting point. There was some stuff against them, they'd done basically nothing village-indicative, and if we voted them we might have been able to get more information on them, either based on how they responded or how other people responded. 

Interestingly enough, Mat decided that instead of joining me, he would revert to the theoretical in which Bridge is elim (saying it only really made sense if Archer is too), and ignoring Jondesu except to say that they don't make sense on this hypothetical team. Even though the sentence before, he'd admitted there was no evidence for said hypothetical team. 

So, now I'm voting him! Mat, what do you have to say for yourself?

New VC:

Tani (2): Archer, Illwei
Archer (4): Matrim, Tani, Pizza, Jondesu
Matrim (2): Bridge, Quinn
Bridge (1): Gears

[Mat]

9 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

So, Archer told you that Mat vil-read me for suspecting Liranil?

I definitely didn't do this  I do village read you though.

10 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Interestingly enough, Mat decided that instead of joining me, he would revert to the theoretical in which Bridge is elim (saying it only really made sense if Archer is too), and ignoring Jondesu except to say that they don't make sense on this hypothetical team. Even though the sentence before, he'd admitted there was no evidence for said hypothetical team. 

So, now I'm voting him! Mat, what do you have to say for yourself?

Er, fair :P. Didn't connect that fact that I had agreed neither of the cases made sense before arguing for them. But: I agree with the basis of the Jondesu vote but I want to at least pursue this first- you know how locked I can get on something. It'd be better I think if we could get Archer or Bridge's flips; it would clear out my reads one way or another. I think even if there isn't that much evidence- and there is other things, you pointed them out yourself- that there is other things beyond the PM theory. Which is very possible.

At this point my vote is akin to my vote last cycle, half self-pres, half that I think Archer is elim, or at least that his flip will clear a few things for me. Jondesu... is a returning player who hasn't posted that much. There was a discussion LG74 about the different meta now, idk if that can be in play. For me, Jondesu is noted but not vote-worthy at this point.

[Ashbringer]

That's time!

Didn't write stuff in advance this time. Oops.

[+Lotus]

Annnnd thats time!

[Ashbringer]

[Ashbringer]

QF52 Cycle 4: Loud Whispers, Silent Scream

Hasting sighed. Word was spreading quickly through the court. The skaa food-testers had all safetly tested the meal, and the one that Varian had evidently seasoned was clean, but Dannex's wine glass had definitely been poisioned. To make matters worse, it had been checked before serving. That meant the poisoner was not among Hasting's staff or cooks, who could otherwise be safetly executed; but among his guests. People began shouting. That Dannex was a well-respected Hasting and his death made no sense, that they were certainly innocent as they'd drunk wine as well - that Hasting could hear was true - or that they had some suspicions of their own.

Eventually one voice enunciated more than the rest. "Sisar's been passing notes around to people. Doing hand signals and the like," said Philico in his clicking tone. "He could easily be the ringleader of all of this." A few people started nodding along - they'd gotten notes from him before. But Sisar stood up almost immediately. "So? That's half the purpose of these balls. To gather information. We just don't talk about it. And from what I've seen you're just as eager to hear what I have to say, outsider."

Hasting looked on as the room seemed to divide itself in two. Half the people seemed to be yelling for Sisar to be ejected for espionage, the other half wanted Philico, a relatively new face in the noble ranks, thrown out of the building for... probably for accusing someone of what half of the room was doing a better job hiding. At first Sisar seemed to be losing ground, but his network seemed to have his back as suddenly Philico's group lost volume.

Suddenly the guardsman on the wall slammed his spear down and saluted. Someone was flaring steel, someone else pewter. Not good.

"SILENCE!" Hasting shouted. To say the room immediately obeyed his command would be an understatement, but eventually everyone turned to look at him. The guardsman slammed his spear again, but no salute. Steel was gone, but a Thug was still antsy. It would have to do.

"Both of you are accused by near equal numbers, there's nothing to distinguish the accusations, and you obviously can't manage to coexist for a nice meal. Both of you leave. Now."

The pair glared at each other, before turning toward the door. The crowd parted...

Revealing Tesse Mourn lying on the ground, a pair of bloody coins dropped next to her.

Hasting cursed, calling for a medic - but Sisar had already bounded forward with the grace only pewter could give. Well... not only pewter. But it fit the facts. Sisar helped move her to a sitting position, and Philico produced a string of rags. They were the only ones to help before the Terris got there with a stretcher and carried Mourn out of the room. Would it be enough? Hasting doubted it. But... perhaps.

Sisar and Philico glanced back at Hasting, who simply nodded.

Then they turned and walked out of the keep.

---

Archer was uninvited! They were a Hasting Host!

Matrim's Dice was uninvited! They were a Hasting Host!

Quintessential was killed! They were a Hasting Host!

 

Vote Count:

• Archer (4): Matrim's Dice, Tani, Jondesu, PizzaPower55
• Matrim's Dice (4): Quintessential, Archer, Illwei, Bridge-Four
• Bridge-Four (1): Gears

 

@xinoehp512 did not post last cycle, so you are being warned for inactivity! If you do not post during this next cycle, then you will be replaced.

 

The cycle will end at 1:00 PM PST on April 19th. Get your votes and actions in by then!

 

Player List:

Spoiler

1. Matrim's Dice - Philico - Hasting Host
2. Liranil - Hasting Host
3. Quintessential - Tesse Mourn - Hasting Host
4. @Gears - Roko the Basilisk [ASPECT: VIN]
5. @Tani - Zilla
6. The Unknown Order - High Prelan Troll(ten) - Hasting Host
7. Archer - Sisar - Hasting Host
8. @Jondesu - Remart
9. Dannex - Hasting Host 
10. @Illwei - Illona
11. @xinoehp512
12. @Bridge-Four - Kiel
13. Kings Way - Varian Lithel - Hasting Host
14. @PizzaPower55