Quick Fix 52: Dancing in the Mists

[Quintessential]

Okay @Archer couple of things:

• Illwei's thing about having PMd Liranil was a joke. She said it in response to you (and you already knew she hadn't PMd Liranil), and she didn't actually say it, she just "raised her hand". Joke. Not serious. Therefore not AI. Illwei makes jokes like that all the time as both alignments. 
• You're saying you think one of the elims is super active. Which is. Exactly what I did in LG75. For the exact same reason that you're doing it here. And it turned out to be wrong.
• The NKs don't necessarily mean (in my opinion) that one of the elims is super active. All they mean is that one of the elims knows what they're doing. Tani has never played a real elim game before (MR49 doesn't count) so she wouldn't know what she's doing. Ergo, she actually doesn't make sense for these kills.
• Especially since new elims (speaking from personal experience) tend to target high-profile, active villagers who are trusted and seem like threats to the elim team. So basically, you, me, and Mat. I'm pretty sure one of us would be dead by now if Tani were elim : P
• You're narrowing your focus, ignoring things that could actually be considered suspicious, like Gears info-killing after saying he didn't want to do that again in a previous game, or Xino voting Mat on tinfoil. 
• You don't have any real reason to suspect Tani. If you could point to any one thing she's done that's actually elimmy, then you might have ground to stand on. But since you haven't done that already I'm assuming you don't have anything to point to.

Basically, maybe reevaluate. If Tani's elim, you can always come back to her later when there's more evidence against her. In the meantime, there are at least two other elims out there (probably three) whose names aren't "Tani", and you'd be doing the village at least as much good looking for them as tunneling on her when you don't have enough to convince the rest of us to vote her off.

Edited April 18, 2021 by Quintessential

[Mat]

Hmm I’ve seen enough... Archer

[Quivil]

50 minutes ago, Archer said:

I started this post an hour ago, so the last four posts aren't considered. 

What’s pointing me towards Tani is my theorized elim profile is one of them is fairly active. I’m reading Quinn (their end of C1 posts seemed village), Mat (sussed me after I suggested they change votes from Kingsway, indicating they didn’t know their alignment), and Illwei as village (their attempt at becoming conftown was so ill conceived an elim wouldn’t have done it). After them, [1] Tani is the most active player.

(alternatives removed for sake of shortness. If you want to look at them scroll up to Archer's post. - Tani)

After all those players are eliminated, we’re left with BridgeFour and Tani, who both have a dozen or so posts. [2] My guess is that BridgeFour as a rookie wouldn’t think of the strategy the elims are using. If they are an elim, they’d make fear kills and probably not be worried about being the last talkative person standing. So process of elimination brings me to Tani as my top suspect.

(Bolds from Tani)

[1] I'm always about this active. Also, really? You're voting me because I'm active?

[2] There's more than one elim and there's an elim doc. Therefore the elim strategy doesn't neccesarily have to come from only one person.

Archer

 

@Bridge-Four Have you previously played any Mafia-like games, online or off?

Edited April 18, 2021 by Tani

[Quintessential]

14 minutes ago, Tani said:

@Bridge-Four Have you previously played any Mafia-like games, online or off?

They have a little bit, see here. But it sounds like they're not as experienced as you were when you joined.

Edited April 18, 2021 by Quintessential

[Archer]

58 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

All that’s about what others haven’t done... But what has Tani done?

Fair question. I wanted to explain my reason for voting Tani tonight so they’d have a chance to respond to it, then was going to ISO them tomorrow, but I’ll do it now. This post is going to be confbias because I’m trying to shade them here, but as I believe they’re an elim, it’s worth doing.

Quote

 

I agree with Dannex. We should coordinate our PMs somehow. Not the Hub way, that breaks down waaaaay too easily.

Imma do this too. Issa good idea. I'll put my votes in-thread like I'm accustomed to doing and put the last vote I make in my GM PM around rollover. (Hey Quinn, when's rollover in your time?)

Me too. We should totally always say when we're sus of someone.

 

They’ve wanted to coordinate PM distribution throughout, and have shown interest in who received them from who. Could be innocent, could be an elim fishing.

Quote

 

AUGH! I want to say something but don't want to cause an IKYK! This has happened to me in (at least almost) every game I've played so far!

If we commit to this the Elims will make sure not to NK people "next to" them and we might be able to find them that way. By looking at who should have died according to the pattern the Elims set but hasn't.

 

They said they were worried about giving away a good strategy, but relented as soon as Quinn said hey, you might as well say. In contrast, I, a villager, had thoughts about how we could catch elims based on kills and PMs, but I kept them to myself until they were relevant to avoid the IKYK.

Quote

Steak is usually dead... whether or not you spend any time in thread...

This post didn’t actually make sense to me.

Quote

How common is it for elims to distance?

*quotes subsequent replies*

So technically it's far more likely that Mat isn't Elim this game because someone who he voted for was NKd.

Once again, they did the call and response thing. I don’t understand why they didn’t just say elims distance! Or not! And here’s the implications! They’re asking for pre-validation of their points, which is just odd.

Quote

Okayyyy...I've a PM with Quinn. Strong vil reads on Mat and Quinn. No elim reads so far.

Relatable content. I like that they said who they have a PM with, because that’s helpful information, but otherwise, this doesn’t help much. Maybe it’s just their playstyle, but for the amount they’ve posted, I would have expected a little more substance. They had a lot of short, banter posts that I didn’t quote. But in a game where we’re struggling to cause controversy, so far Tani has been fairly neutral.

***

26 minutes ago, Tani said:

(Bolds from Tani)

[1] I'm always about this active. Also, really? You're voting me because I'm active?

[2] There's more than one elim and there's an elim doc. Therefore the elim strategy doesn't neccesarily have to come from only one person.

Archer

1. It's that you're active and the elims haven't been killing active players and because of the PMs I've recieved.

2. If myself, Quinn, Illwei, Mat, and you are village, one of us should have been elim killed by now. 

28 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Hmm I’ve seen enough... Archer

That's the suspicious Mat I've come to know and love!  

33 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Okay @Archer couple of things:

• Illwei's thing about having PMd Liranil was a joke. She said it in response to you (and you already knew she hadn't PMd Liranil), and she didn't actually say it, she just "raised her hand". Joke. Not serious. Therefore not AI. Illwei makes jokes like that all the time as both alignments. 
• You're saying you think one of the elims is super active. Which is. Exactly what I did in LG75. For the exact same reason that you're doing it here. And it turned out to be wrong.
• The NKs don't necessarily mean (in my opinion) that one of the elims is super active. All they mean is that one of the elims knows what they're doing. Tani has never played a real elim game before (MR49 doesn't count) so she wouldn't know what she's doing. Ergo, she actually doesn't make sense for these kills.
• Especially since new elims (speaking from personal experience) tend to target high-profile, active villagers who are trusted and seem like threats to the elim team. So basically, you, me, and Mat. I'm pretty sure one of us would be dead by now if Tani were elim : P
• You're narrowing your focus, ignoring things that could actually be considered suspicious, like Gears info-killing after saying he didn't want to do that again in a previous game, or Xino voting Mat on tinfoil. 
• You don't have any real reason to suspect Tani. If you could point to any one thing she's done that's actually elimmy, then you might have ground to stand on. But since you haven't done that already I'm assuming you don't have anything to point to.

Basically, maybe reevaluate. If Tani's elim, you can always come back to her later when there's more evidence against her. In the meantime, there are at least two other elims out there (probably three) whose names aren't "Tani", and you'd be doing the village at least as much good looking for them as tunneling on her when you don't have enough to convince the rest of us to vote her off.

-Illwei is my weakest read of the people I've got PMs with. But joking about something like that still feels overly bold for an elim. They seemed to actually want me to play along. 

-If there's no active elim, who is your top suspect? The rest of the pool has two or less posts in the last two cycles. 

-Tani has off-site experience, and is more familiar with the group than BridgeFour is.

-If I sus Gears, I'll get zero response due to his IRL situation. It'd be a repeat of last cycle, when y'all sussed Kingsway and he didn't reply.

-I'm explaining why I'm voting for them. I could frame it as being based on the content of their posts, but that'd be misleading. See above though for the best red flags I could find. 

-We have two more kills before we lose. I'm narrowing my focus to what I see as our best chance of success. If there's no active elim, we're finished anyway. And the thread has been gravitating away from the top activity players, which I see as unusual, so there's no harm putting the spotlight back on them. I'm happy to take some heat if it means getting some voting action. 

1 hour ago, Jondesu said:

I have no intention of sharing who I’m PMing with, if anyone indeed. I don’t think the Elims knowing that helps us, and I’m suspicious of the suggestion that we share it. Sorry, @Quintessential, but I don’t like that at all. I’m not confirming I’ll vote for you yet, but it’s a possibility.

The tone on this post was weirdly hostile. 

[Mat]

1 minute ago, Archer said:

That's the suspicious Mat I've come to know and love!  

Yeahhhhh I think I’ve voted on you at some point in every single game we’ve both played, except the AG which doesn’t count (disregarding the fact that I would have voted Iguana had I not known you were Honor) And you’ve only been elim in the one I spectated. So I’m... hesitant, and that was why the vote didn’t come sooner. But Quinn’s post convinced me.

[Quivil]

9 minutes ago, Archer said:

Fair question. I wanted to explain my reason for voting Tani tonight so they’d have a chance to respond to it, then was going to ISO them tomorrow, but I’ll do it now. This post is going to be confbias because I’m trying to shade them here, but as I believe they’re an elim, it’s worth doing.

[1]They’ve wanted to coordinate PM distribution throughout, and have shown interest in who received them from who. Could be innocent, could be an elim fishing.

[2]They said they were worried about giving away a good strategy, but relented as soon as Quinn said hey, you might as well say. In contrast, I, a villager, had thoughts about how we could catch elims based on kills and PMs, but I kept them to myself until they were relevant to avoid the IKYK.

[3]This post didn’t actually make sense to me.

[4]Once again, they did the call and response thing. I don’t understand why they didn’t just say elims distance! Or not! And here’s the implications! They’re asking for pre-validation of their points, which is just odd.

[5]Relatable content. I like that they said who they have a PM with, because that’s helpful information, but otherwise, this doesn’t help much. Maybe it’s just their playstyle, but for the amount they’ve posted, I would have expected a little more substance. They had a lot of short, banter posts that I didn’t quote. But in a game where we’re struggling to cause controversy, so far Tani has been fairly neutral.

[1] So did Dannex.

[2] The "good strategy" (just quoting, not mocking) was in response to a hypothetical situation that sprouted from a hypothetical situation.

[3] Illwei misspelled "streak" as "steak" and steak is meat from a cow (iirc) so I said steak is usually dead because by the time it's called steak, the cow is no longer living. Has nothing to do with how active someone is in-thread.

[3] TL;DR: It was a joke. One that apparently Archer didn't get.

[4] I do that a lot when I'm trying to prove a point. It means I don't have to work as hard to get evidence and also I'm less likely to be wrong.

[5] I didn't have much to say.

[---]

44 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Illwei's thing about having PMd Liranil was a joke. She said it in response to you (and you already knew she hadn't PMd Liranil), and she didn't actually say it, she just "raised her hand". Joke. Not serious. Therefore not AI. Illwei makes jokes like that all the time as both alignments. 

I know I'm biased, but I'd also see something like that as v indicative. I mean, that's a stupid thing to say, because the whole reason I would say that is either because I'm village, so it's v!indicative, or because I'm an elim who is trying to convince people I'm a villager (which, imo, it would be a poor way of trying :P).

46 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

All they mean is that one of the elims knows what they're doing.

What makes you say this? these NKs imply that there is at least 1 elim in the village read people, because that's who the elims *aren't* killing. if there are elims in the people who are inactive-r and whatnot, then that doesn't imply they know what they're doing.

These NKs also imply not only that, but that the Elims are happy with the thread, and where people are pushing. because otherwise I feel like we'd see them strike an active. Either They're leading the conversation, or they're not getting any pressure.

12 minutes ago, Archer said:

-Illwei is my weakest read of the people I've got PMs with. But joking about something like that still feels overly bold for an elim. They seemed to actually want me to play along. 

I did, and I had a theory about what you going either way meant- I don't remember right now.

Still getting off vibes from Quinn. I've flp-floppd on both archer and mat so much. Getting village vibes from Quinn but it's not strong enough for me to solidify that ig.

14 minutes ago, Archer said:

And the thread has been gravitating away from the top activity players, which I see as unusual,

this.

I'm voting mat again. Potentially Archer, who knows. Hopefully I will :P.

I had in my mind for a large post that I was writing in my head on my way home from work, but then I did some family things because it's my birthday. it was going to cover uhhhhhh. something. Votes. I was gonna look at NK analysis. do some fun groupings. alas. time to play minecraft :p. 

[Bridge-Four]

51 minutes ago, Tani said:

@Bridge-Four Have you previously played any Mafia-like games, online or off?

Yeah, I played it twice as far as I can remember. Once I was village and won. The second time I was elim and was caught in the first round : P

[Quintessential]

@Archer @Illwei You guys seem to be missing something pretty important here : P

Dannex was an active, village-read player, and he was killed. When he died, he only had three fewer posts than Tani did at the time, and they'd contained more substance, so in this case I'd put him slightly above her in terms of activity. The most active players this game have been, up to this point: myself, Mat, Archer, and Dannex, with Tani slightly behind. Illwei has been busy and she doesn't even make the list here, so Archer idk why you're still acting like she does.

[PizzaPower55]

5 hours ago, Quintessential said:

I still don't know who Gears, Jondesu, Xino, and Pizza PM'd

i forgot to

[Bridge-Four]

My list of who I think is aligned to which side

Spoiler

1. Mat - Suspects (Gut, late vote change and the chance that Lin was killed to bring Mat village points)
2. Quinn - Village (Almost sure) 
3. Gears - Not Sure (Slightly towards village, but very slightly) (Mostly has been unbiased and I can't read anything between the lines.)
4. Tani - Village (Not completely sure) (I don't see anything suspicious and she has been helpful)
5. Archer - Suspects [The whole Tani voting has thrown me off guard, I had village read you first but now I really don't, many others have put you up in the elims list (Not my reason, but it is still worth mentioning), just look at the number of PM's you have, I would have killed you down in the last cycle if I were elim to cut down so many contacts at the same time.]
6. Jondesu - Not Sure 
7. Illwei - Not Sure (But seems more elim than village) (Mostly gut)
8. xino - Not enough messages to think of anything
9. Pizza - Not Sure

 

Edited April 18, 2021 by Bridge-Four
Given reasons for everybody's allignment

[Archer]

19 minutes ago, Tani said:

[1] So did Dannex.

[2] The "good strategy" (just quoting, not mocking) was in response to a hypothetical situation that sprouted from a hypothetical situation.

[3] Illwei misspelled "streak" as "steak" and steak is meat from a cow (iirc) so I said steak is usually dead because by the time it's called steak, the cow is no longer living. Has nothing to do with how active someone is in-thread.

[3] TL;DR: It was a joke. One that apparently Archer didn't get.

[4] I do that a lot when I'm trying to prove a point. It means I don't have to work as hard to get evidence and also I'm less likely to be wrong.

[5] I didn't have much to say.

These are fair responses. My personal response to the situation of 2 would have been different. 4 still seems odd. And right now, they amount to better leads than I have on anyone else until I ISO some other high posters tommorow. 

12 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

@Archer @Illwei You guys seem to be missing something pretty important here : P

Dannex was an active, village-read player, and he was killed. When he died, he only had three fewer posts than Tani did at the time, and they'd contained more substance, so in this case I'd put him slightly above her in terms of activity. The most active players this game have been, up to this point: myself, Mat, Archer, and Dannex, with Tani slightly behind. Illwei has been busy and she doesn't even make the list here, so Archer idk why you're still acting like she does.

Hm. Perhaps Dannex is the one I need to ISO instead. I've been going by multi game average contribution profiles, because that's what Elim me would use too. If Dannex regressed to their mean they'd be less threatening than if Illwei regressed to their mean. 

Bridge Four, your list is helpful, but without reasons attached, it's unconvincing. 

[Quintessential]

So I went back and did post counts for C1 and C2... and it turns out I was sort of right and sort of wrong. See for yourself.

C1:

Spoiler

16 -- Quinn
9 -- TUO
8 -- Matrim, Dannex
7 -- Tani
4 -- Illwei, Bridge
3 -- Archer
2 -- Liranil, Kings
1 -- Gears, Pizza
0 -- Jondesu, Books/Xino

C2:

Spoiler

20 -- Quinn
11 -- Matrim, Illwei
10 -- Tani, Bridge
6 -- Dannex
2 -- Jondesu, Archer
1 -- Gears, Books/Xino
0 -- Pizza, Kings

 

[Quivil]

Just now, Quintessential said:

So I went back and did post counts for C1 and C2... and it turns out I was sort of right and sort of wrong. See for yourself.

C1:

  Hide contents

16 -- Quinn
9 -- TUO
8 -- Matrim, Dannex
7 -- Tani
4 -- Illwei, Bridge
3 -- Archer
2 -- Liranil, Kings
1 -- Gears, Pizza
0 -- Jondesu, Books/Xino

C2:

  Hide contents

20 -- Quinn
11 -- Matrim, Illwei
10 -- Tani, Bridge
6 -- Dannex
2 -- Jondesu, Archer
1 -- Gears, Books/Xino
0 -- Pizza, Kings

 

Confusion.

Please explain how this works?

Oh! Post counts! I thought this was vote counts! 

[Mat]

How are people elim reading me and Archer at the same time? I don’t understand that.

[Bridge-Four]

10 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

How are people elim reading me and Archer at the same time? I don’t understand that.

I have been elim reading you from the last turn and some of my suspicions still stay.

As for Archer I think I have stated my reasons above. If I am not wrong, you and Archer have a PM too, you might as well be bussing Archer. 

Edited April 18, 2021 by Bridge-Four

[Mat]

11 minutes ago, Bridge-Four said:

I have been elim reading you from the last turn and some of my suspicions still stay.

As for Archer I think I have stated my reasons above. If I am not wrong, you and Archer have a PM too, you might as well be bussing Archer. 

I understand both reasonings, I just don’t see how they go together.  I do have a PM with Archer, why would we both be evil? And at this point in the game it’s be a bad idea to bus straightaway, though if a teammate is up it’s possible they would.

[Bridge-Four]

Well, I am voting Archer this cycle. But I still sus you Mat.

[---]

Tani has been ringing all sorts of bells

Consider this a vote on tani

Of sorts

[Mat]

If Archer flips vil Bridge is sus

[---]

13 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

If Archer flips vil Bridge is sus

I thini bridge is sus regardless

Is archer in the lead with votes right now? The lack of opposition if thats the case is concerning

Edit: also, bridge four classified Gears as more village than me, which confuses me, and had two elim reads- mat and archer. Theyre consensus opinions, so im not sure how to feel about that.

Edited April 18, 2021 by Illwei

[Quintessential]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

Is archer in the lead with votes right now? The lack of opposition if thats the case is concerning

Archer has 3 votes (Mat, Tani, and Bridge) and Tani has two (you and Archer). So he's in the lead by 1. I wouldn't call that lack of opposition, though.

[Mat]

*Proceeds to tinfoil Archer/Bridge/Illwei team*

[Bridge-Four]

Hey just so you guys know, I am taking my vote for Archer back because of something they said in the PM.

And am voting Mat for he is my lead suspect now.