Quick Fix 52: Dancing in the Mists

[---]

Aaaaaand now Im left, with all the quiet people. 

...

...

...

[PizzaPower55]

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

Aaaaaand now Im left, with all the quiet people. 

yup, oof

[Jondesu]

Well, that didn't work out.  Why was a tie left in place? Who caused the tie? (reads) Based on the thread, Quinn, though I can't tell what order the votes are placed in in the official write up (it may be intentionally not in order).  That's unfortunate, since they're cleared by being dead. Doesn't help us figure out much.

Gears, Tani, me, Illwei, xino, Bridge, and Pizza, and probably 3 Elims within that group, this doesn't look good.  And I know some people might be suspicious of me still after some of the talk I saw last cycle (can't really blame you, but I assure it's only been mistakes of truly trying to solve this, not intentionally sabotaging the game).

The fact that active players were killed first is notable, suggesting the Elims targeted them intentionally, a bad play from a meta-standpoint (simply because it leads to less fun games) but often a productive one, especially if the Elims like being less active themselves for various reasons. Unfortunately, there's also less to go on because those players haven't been talking as much. Gears has posted some, Tani is probably the most active of those with Illwei a little behind, and Bridge and Pizza are both fairly quiet so far despite Bridge having suspicion on them (unless I'm misremembering, which is entirely possible, I didn't reread to come up with that list, just off the top of my head).

I'll have to check back, but I'm worried about Tani and Illwei being probably the most active left, and of course about those whom I haven't been able to read much from at all.  I realize that same reason may make you suspicious of me, but we can't afford any more mistakes as we're at the breaking point.  Without catching an Elim this cycle, we have lost, unless there's only 2, which is unlikely.

Gears, why did you keep your vote on Bridge?  I thought the reasoning that they were likely village seemed solid, but you never changed your vote. Bridge murdering their PM buddy doesn't make a ton of sense since it would deprive them of that connection, but more importantly, it would have helped avoid a tie vote since yours was the only one that didn't go to one of the top suspicions.

[Gears]

Upon seeing the vote count, I know with complete certainty that Illwei lied. The public vote count was as follows:

Tani (1): Illwei
Archer (4): Matrim, Tani, Pizza, Jondesu
Matrim (2): Bridge, Quinn
Bridge (1): Gears

The alterations are as follows: Archer voted Matrim, and Illwei voted Matrim. Illwei, I don't particularly suspect you for this action as Archer flipped vil and the tie doesn't actually make the end happen sooner, but it is quite noted.

The problem: We have no suspects

The players: 

1. Gears
   1. C'est moi. 
2. Tani
   1. I know Archer was accusing them, but I genuinely do not see what they've done as suspicious thus far.
3. Jondesu
   1. Strong opinions about revealing PMs, but not much there.
4. Illwei
   1. I don't remember them at all. This is concerning.
5. xino
   1. An odd Matrim vote that went nowhere, but not much there.
6. Bridge
   1. Their actions have been conspicuously Not Village, but I don't really see how they'd help elim!Bridge, especially given v!Archer. 
7. Pizza
   1. Too quiet to tell.

Given that there was a kill C1, the team can't be Pizza/xino/Jondesu. I know that Pizza technically existed C1, but based on the fact that they claim to have forgotten to even submit a PM, I dare say they likely were not active enough to submit a kill. I know this is a dangerous assumption, but I think narrowing the pool is at least somewhat helpful here, particularly since I have no read on the relative inactives at the moment.

The pool of Possible Evil [extracting myself and the chronic inactives because there must be at least one person outside that pool]: Tani, Illwei, Bridge. 

I see no reason for voting Tani. Archer's suspicion of them seemed quite unfounded. However, I see very little reason to trust them, so if someone scrounges up a case against them, I'd be willing to vote them [particularly since with 3 elims, we have to be unanimous]. Illwei lied. I can understand why they would do so, but still noted. Bridge suspicion somewhat depended on Archer suspicion, but I have noted them for reasons I don't quite remember. I'm leaning towards Illwei on principle, but I do understand that the switch likely comes from a villager since the tie wouldn't help the elims at all. I would be willing to kill any of these, which is concerning. Let me go look at my Bridge iso and see if I come up with new conclusions.

I looked at my Bridge iso, and I determined some suspicion because they were either wrong or lying about what happens when you don't pick a PM pal C1. They said as follows: "They told me that if I don't choose anyone then I would get a random one and I got interested in that." This information is incorrect. I asked Ash, and Ash told me that the PM would go to waste. I don't think the GM would give a different response to two different players. I don't know why they would say this since it seems more advantageous to just say they forgot, but it was noted. I would be willing to vote Bridge or Illwei for lying, particularly since I have literally no evidence on anyone, which is quite concerning. I can see a village reason why Illwei would lie, but I can't see any reason for Bridge to do so as village. If anyone can muster a case against anyone, I would be happy to hear it.

25 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

The fact that active players were killed first is notable, suggesting the Elims targeted them intentionally, a bad play from a meta-standpoint (simply because it leads to less fun games) but often a productive one, especially if the Elims like being less active themselves for various reasons. Unfortunately, there's also less to go on because those players haven't been talking as much. Gears has posted some, Tani is probably the most active of those with Illwei a little behind, and Bridge and Pizza are both fairly quiet so far despite Bridge having suspicion on them (unless I'm misremembering, which is entirely possible, I didn't reread to come up with that list, just off the top of my head).

I will note that the active players weren't killed first, with Quinn being the first "active" kill out of the standard active pool of Archer, Matrim, Illwei, Quinn, Tani. The village killed more actives than the elims. In fact, this seemingly intentional lack of murdering actives incentivised Archer's unfounded suspicion of Tani for no other reason then the fact that she was active. The kill of an active person now makes me ever so slightly concerned about Tani since they may be trying to invalidate the only reason for suspicion on them, but my paranoia says that it's someone framing Tani. 

3 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

Gears, why did you keep your vote on Bridge?  I thought the reasoning that they were likely village seemed solid, but you never changed your vote. Bridge murdering their PM buddy doesn't make a ton of sense since it would deprive them of that connection, but more importantly, it would have helped avoid a tie vote since yours was the only one that didn't go to one of the top suspicions.

Reasoning for remaining on Bridge: I was busy from right after I submitted my vote all the way until past rollover. Reasoning for voting Bridge: I wanted to encourage a tie between Bridge and Archer as it wouldn't hasten defeat if the E/E Bridge/Archer theory was wrong and it would increase mixes to XLo if it was right. I was planning on switching to Archer, but I didn't have the time. Sidenote: I don't remember why they were read as village.

[Bridge-Four]

See? I told you guys Archer was not likely elim in the last post or maybe the second last post.

But is seems we have blundered quite badly, we are 4 Hastings vs 3 elims.

At the moment, I don't suspect anyone highly.

Mild suspicions on Illwei and Gears. But that is about it.

[Quivil]

@Gears! You need to post stuff about Rvoikno! I want to read it!

[Bridge-Four]

11 hours ago, Gears said:

I looked at my Bridge iso, and I determined some suspicion because they were either wrong or lying about what happens when you don't pick a PM pal C1. They said as follows: "They told me that if I don't choose anyone then I would get a random one and I got interested in that." This information is incorrect. I asked Ash, and Ash told me that the PM would go to waste. I don't think the GM would give a different response to two different players.

Hey, this is what Ashbringer told me ->

'Hmm. If you don't submit a request for a PM by the end of this cycle, you won't end up with a PM of your choice. So no, it's not necessary. However, people can still decide they want to make their one PM with you. '

You see the 'you won't end up with a PM of your choice' part? I interpreted it as, if I am not getting a PM of my choice then it must be random. And that is why I stated that in the thread.

So yeah I did not lie. If anything was done it was unintentional.

Edited April 19, 2021 by Bridge-Four

[---]

Heyo lets go

so it's ELo, fun times. 

I voted on Mat because I trusted Archer more, and I PMd archer and told him I was switching. I was hoping that by not alerting the thread the people might move around but uh I failed to realize that ties kill everyone. 

Theoretically it doesn't matter, it's ELo either way, but here we go. 

 

Elims don't need to do much this round. not that they've had to do much the previous rounds, with us killing all these villagers for them. it doesn't matter what they say in thread really, because all they have to do is make sure that at least one villager is not voting on an elim, even if the rest of us are, and they win. even if we tie it between village and elim they win, because it would go down to 3/2 and then they'd NK one and it'd be parity. 

There isn't much in terms of NKs. 

Liranil: probably a meta-kill
Danex: was being village read? 
Quinn: both solving the game, and would look better on Archer's flip. 

I was going to go through posts but I'm slowly losing my mind. I'll come back to Quinn. 

Now let's see. votes. Basically everything this game was between villagers, so let's see where that gets us. 

D1: 

D1 was between all villagers. 

Quote

The Unknown Order (4): Liranil, Archer, Illwei, Bridge-Four
Liranil (1): Matrim's Dice
Matrim's Dice (1): Quintessential
Dannex (1): The Unknown Order
Bridge-Four (1): Kings_Way

with bridge 4 being the only one left alive from that, I'm inclined to think he's an Elim. Well, that combined with other things. but we'll come back to that later. moving on. 

Quote

Kings_way (4): Matrim's Dice, Quintessential, Gears, Bridge-Four
Matrim's Dice (2): Illwei, xinoehp512
Tani (1): Archer

We got some different people voting here, but still v/v wagons. and then we have Tani. note Tani, I'll be back for her later. 

Quote

Archer (4): Matrim's Dice, Tani, Jondesu, PizzaPower55
Matrim's Dice (4): Quintessential, Archer, Illwei, Bridge-Four
Bridge-Four (1): Gears

I want to note that the only confirmed villager on Archer is Matrim, who was only voting in self-pres iirc. 

Now back to the people

Basically the Elims didn't have to do much this game. They didn't. TUO was village led- Kings was village led- and at least Matrim was village-led. 

as I'm rereading, I hate to think that the safest kill here might be Xino. 

In C3, Tani's vote on Archer reads like a self-pres, or that she's voting him just because he's voting her. 

okay. gah. I'm running out of brain. 

 

Tani, Jon, Bridge, Xino, Pizza. 

My first thought was that villagers this game might still be talking, but that the Elims wouldn't need to. Gears posted something. something long. so did Jon. 

Tani has said nothing. Tani has felt off to me all game, tbh. I can't really pinpoint it, but they killed Quinn when she was basically sheilding Tani, but also Quinn might have found a different Elim if she was alive /shrug. 

Bridge isn't really leaning one way or the other. Basically I find his overall game to be strange and a bit suspicious, but I'm not confident enough on that with him getting votes right away. The thing is, he's the only person from D1 who I don't know the alignment of still, who voted. Idk what that means. it's not solid enough for me to vote based on that. the "we have blundered quite badly" at the start of this cycle feels performative. 

Jondesu has also felt off, again, great descriptions Illwei. 

Pizza hasn't been joking around, but-  there's litterally nothing to go off of here. so. yeah. 

Jon posted this cycle not even actually accusing gears, just voting. this with Gear's post, Im more inclined to think gears is village. 

But I just keep coming back to the people who hopped on Archer after both me and Archer pressured Tani. 

Tani

Reminder to the good people here- The elims don't need to vote in thread. There's going to be 3 votes out here that probably mean absolutely nothing, or there might be three votes that just straight up don't exist here. they don't need to, they just need to be sure that we aren't all voting together. Which I feel is a lost cause at this point. 

[Quivil]

Spoiler

22 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Heyo lets go

so it's ELo, fun times. 

I voted on Mat because I trusted Archer more, and I PMd archer and told him I was switching. I was hoping that by not alerting the thread the people might move around but uh I failed to realize that ties kill everyone. 

Theoretically it doesn't matter, it's ELo either way, but here we go. 

 

Elims don't need to do much this round. not that they've had to do much the previous rounds, with us killing all these villagers for them. it doesn't matter what they say in thread really, because all they have to do is make sure that at least one villager is not voting on an elim, even if the rest of us are, and they win. even if we tie it between village and elim they win, because it would go down to 3/2 and then they'd NK one and it'd be parity. 

There isn't much in terms of NKs. 

Liranil: probably a meta-kill
Danex: was being village read? 
Quinn: both solving the game, and would look better on Archer's flip. 

I was going to go through posts but I'm slowly losing my mind. I'll come back to Quinn. 

Now let's see. votes. Basically everything this game was between villagers, so let's see where that gets us. 

D1: 

D1 was between all villagers. 

with bridge 4 being the only one left alive from that, I'm inclined to think he's an Elim. Well, that combined with other things. but we'll come back to that later. moving on. 

We got some different people voting here, but still v/v wagons. and then we have Tani. note Tani, I'll be back for her later. 

I want to note that the only confirmed villager on Archer is Matrim, who was only voting in self-pres iirc. 

Now back to the people

Basically the Elims didn't have to do much this game. They didn't. TUO was village led- Kings was village led- and at least Matrim was village-led. 

as I'm rereading, I hate to think that the safest kill here might be Xino. 

In C3, Tani's vote on Archer reads like a self-pres, or that she's voting him just because he's voting her. 

okay. gah. I'm running out of brain. 

 

Tani, Jon, Bridge, Xino, Pizza. 

My first thought was that villagers this game might still be talking, but that the Elims wouldn't need to. Gears posted something. something long. so did Jon. 

Tani has said nothing. Tani has felt off to me all game, tbh. I can't really pinpoint it, but they killed Quinn when she was basically sheilding Tani, but also Quinn might have found a different Elim if she was alive /shrug. 

Bridge isn't really leaning one way or the other. Basically I find his overall game to be strange and a bit suspicious, but I'm not confident enough on that with him getting votes right away. The thing is, he's the only person from D1 who I don't know the alignment of still, who voted. Idk what that means. it's not solid enough for me to vote based on that. the "we have blundered quite badly" at the start of this cycle feels performative. 

Jondesu has also felt off, again, great descriptions Illwei. 

Pizza hasn't been joking around, but-  there's litterally nothing to go off of here. so. yeah. 

Jon posted this cycle not even actually accusing gears, just voting. this with Gear's post, Im more inclined to think gears is village. 

But I just keep coming back to the people who hopped on Archer after both me and Archer pressured Tani. 

Tani

Reminder to the good people here- The elims don't need to vote in thread. There's going to be 3 votes out here that probably mean absolutely nothing, or there might be three votes that just straight up don't exist here. they don't need to, they just need to be sure that we aren't all voting together. Which I feel is a lost cause at this point. 

 

(Illwei quote spoilered for length)

I didn't get on over Sunday.

At the time I voted, it was a self-pres vot.

 

And there's not really anything for me to say. When I come up with something worthwhile, I'll say it. What would you rather I did instead?

Edited April 19, 2021 by Tani

[Bridge-Four]

@Illwei Just curious, why do you think Gears is village?

[Gears]

1 hour ago, Bridge-Four said:

Hey, this is what Ashbringer told me ->

'Hmm. If you don't submit a request for a PM by the end of this cycle, you won't end up with a PM of your choice. So no, it's not necessary. However, people can still decide they want to make their one PM with you. '

You see the 'you won't end up with a PM of your choice' part? I interpreted it as, if I am not getting a PM of my choice then it must be random. And that is why I stated that in the thread.

So yeah I did not lie. If anything was done it was unintentional.

Bridge, you're not allowed to copy/paste PMs into other places. That is expressly forbidden in the SE rules. While this does reduce my suspicion due to the nature of comprehension, it is against the rules. I will, however, retract my vote on Bridge for the time being as this is quite convincing. You are still incredibly noted for other statements, but that might be playstyle differences. Concerning Illwei's switch: Paranoia thinks that Illwei intentionally tied it so we couldn't orchestrate a tie to save our skins now, but that's probably wrong. I want to think that the Wei is village, but I find myself unable. Wei, you are trusted slightly, and in the event that manage to scrounge up a reason against Tani that amounts to more than their vote on Archer [at a time when it would have been self-pres], I'd follow you. If you get a case against Bridge that amounts to more than their D1 existence, I'd follow you. But if someone that I somewhat trust makes a case against you that amounts to anything of substance, I'd follow them. The village must be unified, or we die. I'm leaning towards Tani out of the Wei/Tani/Bridge group, but I'd still be willing to kill any and all of these people. Wei, I trust you slightly more than I trust the others here, but that doesn't amount to much. By cycle end, I will likely be voting Tani or Bridge, but I don't see much of a reason to suspect Tani. The only reason I'd do so is to try and ensure the village unity thing so we can actually catch an elim. 

Bridge: Who will you be voting? All villagers must vote as a bloc on one elim to win, so we need to come to an accord. For that matter, @Jondesu, @Tani, @PizzaPower55, @xinoehp512, who will you be voting? I know Jondesu is already voting, but that vote is basically useless while it sits on me because you can't get the village majority since I won't self-vote and if you're an elim, then you don't have the majority with all votes on me unless a villager votes on me [if you're a villager, you keep your vote on me, and all 3 elims capitalise on that and vote me off to win, then it's useful, but that's only useful for the other team]. 

2 hours ago, Tani said:

@Gears! You need to post stuff about Rvoikno! I want to read it!

Just for you, Taniel. Just for you.

---

I am not you, you are not me.

I am not you, you are not me.

I am not you, you are not me.

I am not you, you are not me.

I am not you, you are not me.

I am not you, you are not me.

I am not you, you are not me.

[Bridge-Four]

26 minutes ago, Gears said:

Bridge, you're not allowed to copy/paste PMs into other places.

I am seriously sorry I forgot. I won't repeat and will remember that as a warning

26 minutes ago, Gears said:

Bridge: Who will you be voting?

Well I am quite confused in voting between you (Gears) and Illwei. I still don't see anything that Tani did that made it seem suspicious. Xino is another one I am quite willing to vote for if someone can reason it out, or in that case, I will vote on anyone if I see a legitimate cause and case behind it. Just give it to me in 1.5 hours because then I have to go sleep : P

Also, I haven't voted for anyone at the moment. If I have to go to sleep early I will vote on Illwei(Posts seem fishy, but I can't put my finger on it.) or Xino(Hasn't said anything). 

Edited April 19, 2021 by Bridge-Four

[xinoehp512]

Ahhh so much is happening

I'm alive, but super busy. I'll try to get on later to sus out a vote somehow, I guess...

[Quivil]

Earlier someone mentioned framing and now I'm sorta tinfoiling on elim!Illwei.

[---]

the sus on tani is not for her vote, but for Jon and Pizza hopping on Archer once Archer and I voted Tani. 

I find gears village becauce haha effort, and the fact that two people voted on him right away

[Bridge-Four]

Well, I am dropping for the night (in my country at least).  

Just so you guys know, I have voted Illwei as I don't see anything new.

Hope everything goes well and Hasting win. 

[---]

welp there goes two votes on me, and if tani or bridge are village then we've lost. 

jondesu

[Ashbringer]

4 hours ago, Bridge-Four said:

Hey, this is what Ashbringer told me ->

'Hmm. If you don't submit a request for a PM by the end of this cycle, you won't end up with a PM of your choice. So no, it's not necessary. However, people can still decide they want to make their one PM with you. '

You see the 'you won't end up with a PM of your choice' part? I interpreted it as, if I am not getting a PM of my choice then it must be random. And that is why I stated that in the thread.

So yeah I did not lie. If anything was done it was unintentional.

Uh...

I can confirm that players who did not submit PM requests would not receive a random PM, however if someone else decides to make a PM with that player they would still be included in that PM. I probably could have been clearer on that. I.e. if Striker didn't submit any PM requests and no one else PM'd him, he'd get no PMs, but if Striker didn't submit any requests and Devotary requested a PM with Striker, then there would be a Devotary-Striker PM.

 

However, generally speaking we're not allowed to copy-paste details from out-of-thread communications - whether GM / voting PMs, player-player PMs, or Google Docs - into the thread. A large part of SE is lying to people, and copy-pasting quotes from other people makes that much more personal (especially if you're lying about them saying the alleged quote).

Plus sometimes it can be a relatively unfun way of proving alignment if from the GM PM; ie if I hypothetically told every Villager they were "a member of the illustrious House Hasting" then the Elims wouldn't know that the word "illustrious" appeared in every Villager's GM PM. So if someone asked someone to prove they knew what the adjective used to describe House Hasting was... that could be a way to catch an Elim, but it's not really fun for anyone.

Not really an issue here because it's just a game mechanics response (that I would probably have answered in-thread had you asked there). You can certainly paraphrase the occurrences within any of these, but in the future try not to use exact copy-paste quotes 

[---]

tb to lg68 lmao

[Jondesu]

Ugh, I hate making difficult choices on voting. Can someone make up a current vote count, or did I miss one? Illwei is garnering votes, Gears thinks we can’t get enough votes to get them, and I’m not sure who else (Tani has a vote, right?). I’m on mobile and working and can’t put this together right now.

In some situations, I’d say sure, vote me out and use the information, but this is do or die, and I’m a Hastings Host, so I don’t want to let that happen (though I think I only have one vote currently anyways). I’ll probably add to the Illwei vote I guess, but I don’t have strong enough suspicions to be sure. Not committing to a vote just yet, but I will change my vote if not enough people are considering Gears, as we certainly can’t risk another tie.

[Quivil]

15 minutes ago, Illwei said:

tb to lg68 lmao

What does this even mean? (I get the lmao but what's everything else???)

[Ashbringer]

37 minutes ago, Tani said:

What does this even mean? (I get the lmao but what's everything else???)

Something similar to my "illustrious" example happened in Long Game 68, iirc. Someone asked a suspicion on a specific word that had shown up in their PM and turned into a fairly strong debate, but I don't think anything came from it.

... dead doc wants me to state that tb means "throwback" 

Edited April 19, 2021 by Ashbringer

[Quivil]

20 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Something similar to my "illustrious" example happened in Long Game 68, iirc. Someone asked a suspicion on a specific word that had shown up in their PM and turned into a fairly strong debate, but I don't think anything came from it.

... dead doc wants me to state that tb means "throwback" 

Thanks dead doc! I didn't understand the tb part. 

[Gears]

48 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

Ugh, I hate making difficult choices on voting. Can someone make up a current vote count, or did I miss one? Illwei is garnering votes, Gears thinks we can’t get enough votes to get them, and I’m not sure who else (Tani has a vote, right?). I’m on mobile and working and can’t put this together right now.

Illwei (2): Tani, Bridge
Gears (1): Jondesu
Jondesu (1): Illwei

Illwei, your vote on Jondesu increases my suspicion of you. Your vote on Tani seemed reasonable. Your thoughts about people voting Archer after Tani ceased existence were acceptable. Your points about activity had merit. But Jondesu? Your comments about Jondesu amounted to the following:

5 hours ago, Illwei said:

My first thought was that villagers this game might still be talking, but that the Elims wouldn't need to. Gears posted something. something long. so did Jon. 

This implies that you think Jondesu is village because of their existence.

5 hours ago, Illwei said:

Jondesu has also felt off, again, great descriptions Illwei. 

This gives no reasoning in the slightest for the "off" feelings. 

I would have been amenable to the Taniel X, but given all the options of the current era, I have to vote Illwei. The Jondesu vote feels wrong in the worst ways. A switch from a reasonable option to a different one for no reason. This also makes me vaguely suspect the Illwei/Tani distancing team, but to a lesser extent. 

[---]

7 minutes ago, Gears said:

This implies that you think Jondesu is village because of their existence.

5 hours ago, Illwei said:

their post didn't do much, it was a long excuse-type like, "sorry I haven't been here" and then he goes on to emphasize his lack of suspicions. compared to yours, which seemed more effort. Yeah, effort != village but I'm grasping at straws here pretty much because I can't imagine pizza-tani-bridge-(books)xino teams without you or Jon. I just can't. so either you or Jon are on the team, or both of you are, or /shrug. 

Basically there's 0 chance of us winning this, especially with everyone seemingly voting on me :P. (gears, you missed Jon saying he would probably vote on me) that's 4 people, and since I'm village (well, of course, yall don't know that lmao, that's why you're voting me :P) there's at least one villager voting on me.