Long Game 75: Alethi Politics

[Ashbringer]

17 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Hey how come Araris only gave me as an answer? >> 

Striker and I agreed except for each other... both Araris and Striker have argued for TJ's death at one point or another, could be distancing or not, who knows... TJ is sus of both of them, according to this. TJ and Connie have the exact same reads... Elan had said she was sus of me and Striker (great : P), and Tani's only suspicion was Ash... who also appeared as a suspicion for TJ and Connie. Forge listed Elan as her only suspicion even though she was voting Araris for most of the cycle. 

K so I was hoping I'd think of something substantive to add to this but I didn't. : P

Uh... you're reading it backwards. Bold is who got 'voted' on, list is who voted for them.

(Also Araris and Striker listed four which is why they got split in half because otherwise it breaks things.)

[Quintessential]

I had a thought. We should all have like... 8 spheres right now, right? Or at least, we should all be able to afford Slips of Paper. So. What if we all agreed to buy Slips of Paper tonight, if we catch an elim today? (if not our only hope would be the Knife... which no one can afford yet... or a Legal Document or Armor in the right hands). You need to use your action in order to purchase things, which means that if the elims want to submit the kill, one of them will have to forgo the purchase of a slip of paper. Then, we have everyone say in-thread who they're gonna vote without actually voting that person, and use the slip of paper to vote instead. We require that every villager at least place a default vote, so that we can verify who does and doesn't have a Slip of Paper. That way, the elims have to forgo the kill or out one of their own (unless one of them happens to have a Slip of Paper on hand already, in which case no harm done, it's just a normal cycle). We compare any discrepencies in the final tally to what should have been there based on who each person said they'd vote, and that helps us narrow down who the elims are.

Or at least, that's the idea. Probably wouldn't work... but I figured I'd suggest it.

Just now, Ashbringer said:

Uh... you're reading it backwards. Bold is who got 'voted' on, list is who voted for them.

Ohhh xD okay. Just that... most people had three people on them.... 

[Ashbringer]

It could work. Depends on one thing though: @Matrim's Dice, how do the Slips interact with Dalinar's ability to move a vote?

I feel like I'd rather depend on Dalinar being able to move a vote than on everyone buying Slips (Slipped Notes? Why is my brain calling them that?)

[Araris Valerian]

26 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

I had a thought. We should all have like... 8 spheres right now, right? Or at least, we should all be able to afford Slips of Paper. So. What if we all agreed to buy Slips of Paper tonight, if we catch an elim today? (if not our only hope would be the Knife... which no one can afford yet... or a Legal Document or Armor in the right hands). You need to use your action in order to purchase things, which means that if the elims want to submit the kill, one of them will have to forgo the purchase of a slip of paper. Then, we have everyone say in-thread who they're gonna vote without actually voting that person, and use the slip of paper to vote instead. We require that every villager at least place a default vote, so that we can verify who does and doesn't have a Slip of Paper. That way, the elims have to forgo the kill or out one of their own (unless one of them happens to have a Slip of Paper on hand already, in which case no harm done, it's just a normal cycle). We compare any discrepencies in the final tally to what should have been there based on who each person said they'd vote, and that helps us narrow down who the elims are.

Or at least, that's the idea. Probably wouldn't work... but I figured I'd suggest it.

Ohhh xD okay. Just that... most people had three people on them.... 

Why not just have everyone buy Armor?

[StrikerEZ]

3 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

@StrikerEZ, I'm not asking you to assume that everyone who voted Whysper C3 was village (although I currently think that). I was pointing out that if we assume an elim voted on Whysper, we still have much better odds of finding an elim that voted on myself or Books.

My counter argument would be that, assuming an elim voted on Whysper at some point in the game (meaning final votes), Books fits that criteria twice throughout the game. And if “voted on Whysper” is the only criteria we’re going off of, then Books makes the most sense. 

[Araris Valerian]

16 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

My counter argument would be that, assuming an elim voted on Whysper at some point in the game (meaning final votes), Books fits that criteria twice throughout the game. And if “voted on Whysper” is the only criteria we’re going off of, then Books makes the most sense. 

I don’t follow you. I think it is clear that C3 should bear far more weight than C2 with regards to who voted where. And I by no means think “voted on Whysper” has any positive correlation to being elim. Why would being the only player to vote on an elim twice make Books elim? I was allowing that if, for some reason, an elim did vote on Whysper on C3, then we still are less likely to find that elim than we are to find an elim among the players who voted for myself and Books. And that argument doesn’t take into account any of the other points I’ve brought up in favor of Books being village, like the fact that he was in danger C2 because of Whysper in the first place. Or the comment about my self vote being an elim claim. Or that there isn’t a reasonable elim team of 3 remaining players that includes Books on it and fits with C3.

Edited April 7, 2021 by Araris Valerian

[Mat]

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

It could work. Depends on one thing though: @Matrim's Dice, how do the Slips interact with Dalinar's ability to move a vote?

He would override them, moving their anon vote. For instance:

If Illwei was voting on Tani, but Illwei used a slipped note to vote for Elandera, and let’s say Archer is already voting on TUO, the count would look like:

• Tani (0): Illwei
• Elandera (1):
• TUO (1): Archer

But then if Dalinar moved Illwei’s vote to TUO the count would look like

• Tani (0): Illwei
• TUO (2): Archer

[StrikerEZ]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

I don’t follow you. I think it is clear that C3 should bear far more weight than C2 with regards to who voted where. And I by no means think “voted on Whysper” has any positive correlation to being elim. Why would being the only player to vote on an elim twice make Books elim? I was allowing that if, for some reason, an elim did vote on Whysper on C3, then we still are less likely to find that elim than we are to find an elim among the players who voted for myself and Books. And that argument doesn’t take into account any of the other points I’ve brought up in favor of Books being village, like the fact that he was in danger C2 because of Whysper in the first place. Or the comment about my self vote being an elim claim. Or that there isn’t a reasonable elim team of 3 remaining players that includes Books on it and fits with C3.

Okay, I think we're missing each other's points. I've been assuming that at least one elim probably voted on Whysper C3. And that at least one voted on Whysper C2 as well, because the village cred from doing that would help if either of them ended up dying. Now, obviously the assumption about C2 is a lot shakier than the already pretty shaky assumption about C3. But I think these assumptions, plus the odd things about Books I saw when I reread the thread on D4 (see that post with the spoiler with all my thoughts in regards to past Books stuff), plus the fact that Books is still alive at this point at all, considering the types of kills the elim team has been making so far, makes Books not look very good. 

[|TJ|]

Work kept me busy yesterday, so sorry about that. Kinda getting burned out if I'm being honest, but I apologize for the lack of activity nonetheless. I'm genuinely confused at this point, so I went back to a place where something could deduced. Gears' ISO on Whysper here.

Important points:

• Waaaay too much shade on Books to be e/e -> Books village
• Too strong of a first vote on Striker to be e/e -> Striker likely village
• Does not exactly defends Ash, but does take everyone's village read on Ash and settles with it. Says elims are less likely to be involved in voting or ties when someone brings up Ash might be elim -> Ash sus
• No mentions of Araris or Quinn (other than thanking her couple of times). Just activity mention about RandBy.
• Forge has a village read in there too, I think

On 4/6/2021 at 7:27 AM, Quintessential said:

I'm not sure I want to given how my last post like that was received

You weren't suspected because you posted vote analysis? As far as I can recall?

On 4/6/2021 at 7:27 AM, Quintessential said:

I will say, though, that tbh I'm leaning towards Books, almost. It's incredibly tinfoily, but... just. I was predicting they'd be the NK unless I was. And yet neither of us were. And I don't get it. Also, their Whysper vote C2 does in hindsight look a bit like a distancing vote, since at the time Dannex had seven votes to Whysper's 2, which was probably a wide enough margin for a single elim to feel comfortable adding their vote... yeah. And then if Books was an elim role, perhaps even Sadeas, then the same argument goes for them bussing Whysper C3 that I'd had for Araris, but perhaps a bit stronger since Books wasn't pulling the shift out of thin air, Whysper had Araris's vote already and Araris specifically tried to convince Books to switch. Where that leaves everyone else, idk, but--wait. That makes Connie look sus because when there was a tie between Araris and Books (3-3, during C3), Randby chose to vote Araris... Could also see either one of Forge and Ash being elim, and following Books to bus their teammate. Would lean towards Ash because I also have a hard time understanding why the elim team didn't NK him, in the scenario where they didn't want to kill off newbie!Forge and had some other objection to Books (like, for example, if Books is on the team ).

I was thinking the same thing, particularly Books sorta had to be forced to vote for Whysper by Araris and their first response to Araris' request was "I'm not voting on Whysper unless some more people do as I want to survive" and only after someone shifted to Whysper, they voted for her. BUT, after looking at Whysper ISO, she was also constantly shading and trying to get Books voted out, so I wouldn't make sense for Sadeas!Books. 

11 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

C3 vote, in which TJ wanted me dead

I- did? I don't remember? Is this about my discussion with Elandera? That would be in C4, and that was me saying we shouldn't hard clear you because of your vote on Books. Not that I wanted you dead?

Okay so basically: e!Books bussing Whysper? Possible and suspicious. But Whysper has also been sussing Books back in return which makes no sense because she has always mentioned suspicion on Books in conjunction with Tani (always Books and Tani together), so if it was distancing, why vote on Books instead of Tani? Hence, Books is village imo.

Village reading Striker because of the extremely strong vote by Whysper and it's just... too weird to be e/e. 

Mainly village for Araris. Elim point here is not bussing but staying on me and then saying "Voting on Whysper would not provide anything" when Whysper was up for vote in C2.

Ashbringer evil points are all mainly due to mentions by Whysper, and the illegal vote on Whysper.

If there is an elim voting on Whysper, I think it might be Forge. 

Quinn - *sigh* I really don't know but if Books is village (which I think they are), it feels like she's trying to ML them. 

Current team guess - 3 of Ashbringer/Quinn/Forge/RandBy

Bit busy rn, I'll go back and read D3 to see the reasons and timing of vote on Whysper (and then vote). But Araris was the one who forced the vote, Ash was basically forced to vote due to the illegal vote in the previous cycle. Books followed (again forced by Araris' questioning) but reading them village, Forge did not give any reason specifically for the vote? My vote will not go on Striker or Books (unless someone makes a case for the weird confrontation argument between Whysper and Striker as e/e).

I'm not for the slip plan. Feels like a waste on money AND waste of Democracy! cycle tbh (reduces 3 to only 2). As long as Dalinar is alive, even if we lose the majority, we have vote manipulation, so in that case, a knife is, indeed important as it helps us to stay in the game, if only by an inch. 

[StrikerEZ]

48 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Okay so basically: e!Books bussing Whysper? Possible and suspicious. But Whysper has also been sussing Books back in return which makes no sense because she has always mentioned suspicion on Books in conjunction with Tani (always Books and Tani together), so if it was distancing, why vote on Books instead of Tani? Hence, Books is village imo.

I mean, distancing doesn't have to involve actually voting on a player. And, when she was constantly voicing suspicion of Tani and Books, is it not telling that, of the two, she only ever voted on Tani? She obviously had a preference for which of the two of them died.

[|TJ|]

Just now, StrikerEZ said:

I mean, distancing doesn't have to involve actually voting on a player. And, when she was constantly voicing suspicion of Tani and Books, is it not telling that, of the two, she only ever voted on Tani? She obviously had a preference for which of the two of them died.

No? She voted for Books. I don't recall her voting for Tani. Looooook at Gears' iso smhh

[Araris Valerian]

9 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Okay, I think we're missing each other's points. I've been assuming that at least one elim probably voted on Whysper C3. And that at least one voted on Whysper C2 as well, because the village cred from doing that would help if either of them ended up dying. Now, obviously the assumption about C2 is a lot shakier than the already pretty shaky assumption about C3. But I think these assumptions, plus the odd things about Books I saw when I reread the thread on D4 (see that post with the spoiler with all my thoughts in regards to past Books stuff), plus the fact that Books is still alive at this point at all, considering the types of kills the elim team has been making so far, makes Books not look very good. 

Assuming that an elim voted for Whysper C2 is the exact same as assuming that Books is elim. So any argument I’ve made for Books being village also applies to this assumption as well. I also think you’re making the common mistake, whether intentionally or not, or looking at a group of players and saying that since all but one are confirmed village, the last must be elim.

I’m willing to grant your assumption for C3 for the sake of argument, which I have mentioned multiple times already.

Um. You conclude said post with a village read on Books. You also only list 2 things that I saw, and neither of them make any more sense for elim!Books than village!Books.

Isn't the IKYK factor reason enough to not kill Books? I mean, you and Quinn jumped on him pretty fast for it, which means that the elim team clearly would have legitimate reason to not kill village!Books. Not killing anyone who voted Whysper C3 leads nicely into the “Why didn’t the elims kill anyone who voted on Whysper C3?” argument for killing off a player that helped vote off an elim. If we are arguing that the elims are taking the time to think out their kills carefully, then I think we need to give weight to the above two possibilities.

Also, @Quintessential, what happened to your reads from last cycle? You’ve done a total about-face from suspecting Striker and maybe one of TJ/Connie, with a solid village read on, guess who, all the non-me players that voted Whysper C3, to an extreme push for the death of Books. This is giving me really bad vibes. Brings to mind LG72 (that super bus game), where I put my entire team in an elim reads list, voted for the one villager in the list, and then trivialized said list for the rest of the game. Not quite the same here, since I (a second villager) was in your list, but it stinks to me all the same.

Edited April 7, 2021 by Araris Valerian

[Quintessential]

29 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Also, @Quintessential, what happened to your reads from last cycle? You’ve done a total about-face from suspecting Striker and maybe one of TJ/Connie, with a solid village read on, guess who, all the non-me players that voted Whysper C3, to an extreme push for the death of Books. This is giving me really bad vibes. Brings to mind LG72 (that super bus game), where I put my entire team in an elim reads list, voted for the one villager in the list, and then trivialized said list for the rest of the game. Not quite the same here, since I (a second villager) was in your list, but it stinks to me all the same.

To be blunt: because pursuing my two main reads turned out to be too frustrating and emotionally taxing to be worth pursuing without more serious evidence, and my weaker reads weren't so much independent as in conjunction with you and Striker. Also, those weaker reads were TJ and Elan, not TJ and Connie, and Elan turned out to be village, which is making me rethink TJ as well.

Also, I still have the nagging feeling that if I was right about the three people I suspected who haven't been proven village, or right about all of the people I cleared for interactions w/ Whysper, then I'd be dead by now, or one of the cleared people would be dead by now.

However, I did want to say in response to TJ: Whysper doesn't play so much on here, but she is an experienced player on other sites, ones that focus far more on the social deduction aspect of the game than on the mechanics (as I believe she said at some point already this game). So chances are, if anyone in this game is good at in-thread distancing, it's Whysper. I worry that it might be dangerous for us to assume that Striker and Books are cleared because of Whysper's interactions with them, and what she said about them. Especially because I'd expect her to have said she was suspicious of at least one teammate, and Tani flipped vil so that leaves Striker and/or Books, yeah? Unless there were others that I'm missing, having not gone back and reread the whole thread : P

Edited April 7, 2021 by Quintessential

[StrikerEZ]

3 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

No? She voted for Books. I don't recall her voting for Tani. Looooook at Gears' iso smhh

Oh she voted for Books? I thought you said she voted for Tani in the post I quoted. I was working off of that assumption with that argument. I definitely read your post wrong. Anyway, with this in mind, my point honestly works better: why wouldn't she vote on Books for distancing?

34 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Um. You conclude said post with a village read on Books. You also only list 2 things that I saw, and neither of them make any more sense for elim!Books than village!Books.

I mean, I think they make sense as elim things for Books, even if I said I was village reading them in C4. Which was mostly because I was reading all their posts with the thought of "oh, but they voted out Whysper," which at this point isn't something we can give guarantee village cred for, unless we want to say that only one of the non-Whysper voters on D3 was village. Which I just don't think is super likely.

[Araris Valerian]

8 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Also, those weaker reads were TJ and Elan, not TJ and Connie, and Elan turned out to be village, which is making me rethink TJ as well.

Whoops, my bad. And I get that there could be totally legitimate reasoning for what you did. That's why I did it in LG72; I could pass it off as something village!me would do. You did include Randby in your PoE, but then dismissed them for interactions with Whysper. Which, come to think of it, doesn't really line up with your current train of thought on Books.

8 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Also, I still have the nagging feeling that if I was right about the three people I suspected who haven't been proven village, or right about all of the people I cleared for interactions w/ Whysper, then I'd be dead by now, or one of the cleared people would be dead by now.

On the topic of the NK: I think people are giving this too much weight. Grant me that at least one of myself/Quinn/Striker is elim. I think most people would accept this to be true, and it's important because we've been largely responsible for the direction the votes have been going. If that is the case, that elim could easily choose their NK such that it cast suspicion on some villager that wasn't killed. Getting a free misgrinch seems a bit more valuable to me than removing a semi-confirmed villager, given how close we are to parity at this stage of things.

1 minute ago, StrikerEZ said:

I mean, I think they make sense as elim things for Books, even if I said I was village reading them in C4.

I don't want to bother finding the exact post Books made about Anarchy, but elims are very much disincentivized to suggest weird and/or risky plans to the thread. Attention is a real killer, especially in the early cycles. The thing with me claiming Ruthar is very easily answered by anyone who has been paying attention in the elim doc (although maybe not, since you didn't pick up on it ). Hence elim!Books would likely not ask that question. 

I also think that Books's comment about my self-vote being an elim claim is in a similar category to the above things. I'm pretty sure that comes out of a villager mindset, and my apologies to Books if I'm wrong, but I wouldn't expect elim!Books to say something like that as a ploy.

As sort of a general comment, I think I sort of understand how Quinn felt C4, although personally I'm rather enjoying myself right now. Just hope that I've managed to convince some of the villagers out there. I would like to hear from @Flyingbooks, @Ashbringer, and @Condensation with regards to where you are likely to vote this cycle. I made a post earlier where I listed potential elim teams, which is probably the easiest place to start if you don't want to read through all the walls of text this cycle.

[Quintessential]

13 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

You did include Randby in your PoE, but then dismissed them for interactions with Whysper. Which, come to think of it, doesn't really line up with your current train of thought on Books.

Yes well my train of thought on Books in C4 doesn't really line up with my current train of thought on Books. Like at all. So this shouldn't surprise you, maybe? I mean, if you're gonna call me out on inconsistencies you might as well use the big ones.

13 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

On the topic of the NK: I think people are giving this too much weight. Grant me that at least one of myself/Quinn/Striker is elim. I think most people would accept this to be true, and it's important because we've been largely responsible for the direction the votes have been going. If that is the case, that elim could easily choose their NK such that it cast suspicion on some villager that wasn't killed. Getting a free misgrinch seems a bit more valuable to me than removing a semi-confirmed villager, given how close we are to parity at this stage of things.

Right, that's fair enough on the surface, but in order for that you'd need one of the elims to be someone who likes to play with IKYKs and think about them a lot... and the only person I can think of in this game who fits that description is you. Unless you've got any specific ideas for someone else? And we've already established that given your interactions with Whysper, e!you only makes sense if Books is also elim. So if I'm thinking the NK isn't meant to be an IKYK, then I'm sus of Books, but if I'm thinking it is meant to be an IKYK, then I'm... still sus of Books. 

Edit: and rereading that, I realize that isn't exactly what you were saying  but as for the general nagging feeling, it doesn't mean I'm right but it's enough to get me to look outside my previous suspicions. If that makes sense.

13 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

As sort of a general comment, I think I sort of understand how Quinn felt C4, although personally I'm rather enjoying myself right now.

Yes and if your two biggest suspicions decided to band up and vote on you, and the thread turned into a thunderdome with you and the two of them, and literally no one else was talking, would you still be enjoying yourself? : P

Edited April 7, 2021 by Quintessential

[Araris Valerian]

13 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Yes and if your two biggest suspicions decided to band up and vote on you, and the thread turned into a thunderdome with you and the two of them, and literally no one else was talking, would you still be enjoying yourself? : P

Yeah, I agree it's not quite the same, since I'm sort of defending myself at a distance by defending Books. But there is definitely a thunderdome happening right now, with rather little input from the non-Striker/Quinn folks. I consider a Books grinch to be essentially game-over for myself, so I have the same incentive to argue to the fullest. But I have the benefit of not having to deal directly with attacks against myself.

I'm feeling like you're not going to retract from Books today. Not really any reason for you to. But, for the sake of discussion, how would you rank the elim teams I proposed in order of likelihood? (I won't take it personally if you disregard the option with both you and Striker as elims ) @StrikerEZ, @TJ Shade, I'd be interested in the same from the two of you.

[|TJ|]

1 hour ago, StrikerEZ said:

why wouldn't she vote on Books for distancing?

What's the point? There was no pressure on Books at the point, right? I'd assume the elim would mention a teammate and village - and end up voting for the villager?

15 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

• [A] Myself, Books, and either TJ/Connie. This is for the SE player that is really paranoid about bussing.
• (B) Quinn, Striker, and either TJ/Connie. My personal view, based on extensive agreement between Quinn and Striker. TJ is elim over Connie at this point.
• [C] One of Striker/Quinn, and both TJ and Connie. This one is for Striker and Quinn if they decide they don't like the first option.
• [D] 2 out of Striker/Quinn/TJ/Connie, plus either Forge or Ash. I haven't really put a lot of thought into this one, but it's possible.

This one? A doesn't make sense from a neutral perspective because I've been suspicious on Books the entire game till I went through Whysper ISO.
C doesn't make sense again from a neutral perspective since I've been suspicious on Connie the entire game.
D is very much possible, and I'd put it over B at the moment (again because B has Striker and refer to my thoughts on Striker-Whysper confrontation. In fact, I'd like to know your thoughts on this part). Also, can you recap the extensive agreement between Quinn and Striker. Striker was voting to kill her last cycle, no?

So: D > B > A = C

Edited April 7, 2021 by TJ Shade
Okay what the hecc happened? It was the storming [B] which bolded everything

[Quintessential]

20 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm feeling like you're not going to retract from Books today. Not really any reason for you to.

On the contrary, I've been on the verge of unvoting them this whole time. I just... don't know who to vote if I do unvote them, and not voting isn't an option with so few people left.

14 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

• [1] Myself, Books, and either TJ/Connie. This is for the SE player that is really paranoid about bussing.
• Quinn, Striker, and either TJ/Connie. My personal view, based on extensive agreement between Quinn and Striker. TJ is elim over Connie at this point.
• [2] One of Striker/Quinn, and both TJ and Connie. This one is for Striker and Quinn if they decide they don't like the first option.
• [3] 2 out of Striker/Quinn/TJ/Connie, plus either Forge or Ash. I haven't really put a lot of thought into this one, but it's possible.

I mean... idk how to rank these based on probability, per se, so I guess gut feeling is how I'm going here.

Most likely

[1] Araris, Books, one of TJ/Connie 

[3] 2 of Striker/TJ/Connie plus one of Forge/Ash

[2] Striker/TJ/Connie.

Least likely

(the numbers reference the list in the original post, not the order I'm ranking them in : P). Would add that I still think that Araris, Books, and one of Forge/Ash is a very small possibility, which, realistically, I'd put just below [2]. Another possibility that I'd thought of was Books, Connie, and one of [Ash, Forge, maybe TJ???], which I'd put around where [1] is, but that's not a particularly specific team suggestion so idk how helpful that is.

[Araris Valerian]

42 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

(again because B has Striker and refer to my thoughts on Striker-Whysper confrontation. In fact, I'd like to know your thoughts on this part)

I think the Striker/Whysper interactions were contrived, especially since neither of them really put serious pressure on the other, and they didn't attempt to bring other players into the argument. They wouldn't even need to be entirely contrived, but the progression of suspicions to village read happens rather quickly and doesn't really allow for a train to catch on other of them.

42 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Also, can you recap the extensive agreement between Quinn and Striker. Striker was voting to kill her last cycle, no?

This is something I brought up in C3, and is somewhere in my mess of a google doc. But during C2 and C3 Striker and Quinn voted together, and they are voting together again this cycle. During C4 they both were suspicious of Elandera as well. A major point I have here is that it doesn't make sense for Striker and Quinn to be happy voting together if they actually are as suspicious of each other as they say they are. Striker and Quinn both made brief pushes towards each other last cycle, but neither of them was particularly likely to actually die at any point. When Striker was pushing for Quinn to get grinched, it was really just him, me, and Quinn talking, and we all saw how far that discussion went. Then Quinn did the last-minute change, but even with both myself and Elandera that had no chance to get Striker killed.

So basically I take last cycle as distancing, since it was kind of obvious that I would be strongly pushing to kill one/both of them then and now. And yeah there is definitely some confirmation bias here. But I think it's very reasonable for me to start with the assumption that one of Striker/Quinn is elim. From there, their interactions C2/C3 lead me to put them on the same team. And there is a very reasonable explanation of C4 that fits with that interpretation of events.

Edit: Apparently I've written over 2500 words in the last 24 hours 

Edited April 7, 2021 by Araris Valerian

[Quintessential]

2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

This is something I brought up in C3, and is somewhere in my mess of a google doc. But during C2 and C3 Striker and Quinn voted together, and they are voting together again this cycle. During C4 they both were suspicious of Elandera as well. A major point I have here is that it doesn't make sense for Striker and Quinn to be happy voting together if they actually are as suspicious of each other as they say they are. Striker and Quinn both made brief pushes towards each other last cycle, but neither of them was particularly likely to actually die at any point. When Striker was pushing for Quinn to get grinched, it was really just him, me, and Quinn talking, and we all saw how far that discussion went. Then Quinn did the last-minute change, but even with both myself and Elandera that had no chance to get Striker killed.

: P yeahhhh it's even weirder on the inside. I have my suspicions, including Striker, and then Striker keeps voting on the people I'm suspicious of. Which makes me think that either I'm wrong about him or I'm wrong about literally everyone else, and I have no idea which. So I have no choice but to either vote him all the time or vote as if I wasn't worried that he agrees with me. 

It's not exactly confbiasy to assume that one of me/Striker is elim, just that it's not an assumption that anyone else is going to be making because you're within our high-activity group too. And I mean, as to the second part there must be something off there because I'm definitely village  but that could be any number of things--maybe you're elim, or maybe the three of us are all village and gotten tangled around unfortunate but incorrect assumptions, or maybe e!Striker's been deliberately tying himself to me. idk. 

[Araris Valerian]

3 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

: P yeahhhh it's even weirder on the inside. I have my suspicions, including Striker, and then Striker keeps voting on the people I'm suspicious of. Which makes me think that either I'm wrong about him or I'm wrong about literally everyone else, and I have no idea which. So I have no choice but to either vote him all the time or vote as if I wasn't worried that he agrees with me. 

It's not exactly confbiasy to assume that one of me/Striker is elim, just that it's not an assumption that anyone else is going to be making because you're within our high-activity group too. And I mean, as to the second part there must be something off there because I'm definitely village  but that could be any number of things--maybe you're elim, or maybe the three of us are all village and gotten tangled around unfortunate but incorrect assumptions, or maybe e!Striker's been deliberately tying himself to me. idk. 

I think I can see you being village as a possibility. Last cycle you felt a lot more village than Striker later on. I've found some things this cycle that have made me more suspicious, and if Striker flips elim this cycle I'll definitely consider you as an option next turn. Hopefully (if we find an elim this cycle) the elim kill will shed some light on things.

[StrikerEZ]

16 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

• [1] Myself, Books, and either TJ/Connie. This is for the SE player that is really paranoid about bussing.
• [2] Quinn, Striker, and either TJ/Connie. My personal view, based on extensive agreement between Quinn and Striker. TJ is elim over Connie at this point.
• [3] One of Striker/Quinn, and both TJ and Connie. This one is for Striker and Quinn if they decide they don't like the first option.
• [4] 2 out of Striker/Quinn/TJ/Connie, plus either Forge or Ash. I haven't really put a lot of thought into this one, but it's possible.

Of these options for possible teams I think 3 is the most likely, followed by 4, then 1, and obviously I believe 2 to be wrong. 

34 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I think the Striker/Whysper interactions were contrived, especially since neither of them really put serious pressure on the other, and they didn't attempt to bring other players into the argument. They wouldn't even need to be entirely contrived, but the progression of suspicions to village read happens rather quickly and doesn't really allow for a train to catch on other of them.

I mean, I can say that, on my end at least, I backed off mostly because I felt like Whysper was getting really riled up. I didn't want to make a whole big conflict between the two of us, so I gave her some credit for the points she was making and backed off. I still feel like Whysper went very very hard on me, and was very clearly trying to paint me as an elim, and only backed off when she saw that I wasn't going to fight her on it. I guess you can tinfoil that all you want, but I'd ask that others go back and reread that whole argument for themselves and come back and tell me they really think it was contrived and that I'm an elim because of it.

Anyway, I can't find the post where you talked about me and Quinn voting together so I'll comment on that here. I'm voting alongside Quinn because I have my own suspicions of Books, and I've been willing to set aside my suspicion of Quinn for a long time now. I still have some underlying suspicion there, but I feel like that's more from our big thunderdome C4 than anything else, honestly. And I'm really starting to get the sinking feeling that all 3 of us (me, Quinn, Araris) are just villagers who've been going at each other's throats for far too long. 

[Condensation]

Sorry, guys. Won't be on for a while because I'm going to the beach. Turning 16, too!

[Araris Valerian]

1 hour ago, StrikerEZ said:

And I'm really starting to get the sinking feeling that all 3 of us (me, Quinn, Araris) are just villagers who've been going at each other's throats for far too long. 

I think the only elim team I would buy in this case is TJ/Connie/Ash, since I stand by everything I've said in defense of Books this turn. And I guess I'd be willing to vote TJ as a very last resort, where there aren't 4 votes on you. Maybe we're all crazy, and don't know what we're doing. But I'm going to have a little faith in myself.

Something that hasn't really come up much, is how do people feel about the Elandera grinch last cycle? I took it as evidence of a Striker/TJ elim team, mostly since I was staunchly opposed to it all cycle, but I don't think other people have really said much on the topic.