Long Game 75: Alethi Politics

[Ashbringer he/him]

Quote

• [A] Myself, Books, and either TJ/Connie. This is for the SE player that is really paranoid about bussing.
• (B) Quinn, Striker, and either TJ/Connie. My personal view, based on extensive agreement between Quinn and Striker. TJ is elim over Connie at this point.
• [C] One of Striker/Quinn, and both TJ and Connie. This one is for Striker and Quinn if they decide they don't like the first option.
• [D] 2 out of Striker/Quinn/TJ/Connie, plus either Forge or Ash. I haven't really put a lot of thought into this one, but it's possible.

I would say I think C is most likely, then D, then A, then B. But I feel like the real team is something different... 

I don't think Forge is an Elim, though... she doesn't have ties to much. I'd be hesitant exe TJ or Connie here, because they seem to be the "wild cards" where either or both could be Elims and they're just too untied to tell without more info. That and besides TJ's spurt in activity I still haven't seen anything to tell the two apart. And I don't think Araris is Elim based on that D3 organization, unless Books is as well, so no real sense in voting out Araris now... That leaves Striker, Quinn, and Books. 

And blast it I don't have time. I don't want to vote out Quinn, not with them outing themselves as a Roleblocker (especially as a Roleblocker). So I'm good with these two... just... which one is it.

E!Books implies E!Araris. E!Striker implies V!Quinn to me, but I'd have to look more carefully (inverse applies to V!Striker and E!Quinn). And I think E!Striker could imply E!TJ as well - the early vote from Striker on TJ is ringing alarm bells for me. The thing is, I don't think E!Books can tell us much more.

So... Striker. 

On the Elandera exe... I'm intrigued by the fact Elandera moved her vote to TJ only for then a push on Striker to generate, which Elandera said she may join but never did. I don't know what that means, though, because it didn't involve any input from either of those two (aside from their early votes on Elandera) and there was no third vote for Elandera to tie it.

 

Spoiler

• E!Striker <-> E!TJ, V!Quinn
• E!Quinn <-> V!Striker
• E!Books <-> E!Araris
• Might fill this up more later

[StrikerEZ he/him]

18 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I think the only elim team I would buy in this case is TJ/Connie/Ash, since I stand by everything I've said in defense of Books this turn. And I guess I'd be willing to vote TJ as a very last resort, where there aren't 4 votes on you. Maybe we're all crazy, and don't know what we're doing. But I'm going to have a little faith in myself.

Something that hasn't really come up much, is how do people feel about the Elandera grinch last cycle? I took it as evidence of a Striker/TJ elim team, mostly since I was staunchly opposed to it all cycle, but I don't think other people have really said much on the topic.

I’d be down to vote for TJ

[Quintessential she/her]

@Ashbringer what's making you conclude that Striker and I aren't e/e? That's the wrong phrasing of that question but I couldn't think of a better way to put it. What I mean is, Araris seems to think that Striker and I are e/e, so what are you seeing that he's not, or how are you interpreting things differently?

I'd be okay voting Striker maybe? I just don't know what to think of him exactly... Oh, actually I had question for @StrikerEZ: were you on for the very end of C3? If you were, was there anything about the progression of votes on Whysper that seemed odd to you? 

[Ashbringer he/him]

6 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

@Ashbringer what's making you conclude that Striker and I aren't e/e? That's the wrong phrasing of that question but I couldn't think of a better way to put it. What I mean is, Araris seems to think that Striker and I are e/e, so what are you seeing that he's not, or how are you interpreting things differently?

I feel like it's just a gut feeling... you and Striker (and Araris, for that matter) have been having a bit of a wallpost battle to put it mildly, and I just... don't think that's something that you would fabricate. Not to this level.

That and it would have taken one more turnover vote for the exe on Elandera to flip over to tie with Striker (assuming Elandera would have self-presed if another person voted). Which if there's only one Elim not named Quinn or Striker, seems like quite a gambit.

I could be convinced to move to TJ if someone can differentiate TJ from voting Connie.

[Quintessential she/her]

5 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I could be convinced to move to TJ if someone can differentiate TJ from voting Connie.

Araris had a vote sitting on TJ for the entire duration of C2, while he argued during C4 that we shouldn't exe Connie (though he has apparently reversed that particular opinion of his in the interim). Also, Connie/Randby voted Araris in C3 while TJ voted Books.

it should probably disturb me that I didn't have to look at my notes to know that. I have a fair number of VCs memorized by now...

[Mat he/him]

The writeup has been edited in! And the title evolved  

[|TJ| he/him]

So I fell asleep, but I woke up thankfully. I went through D3. Forge was the second person to shift to Whysper and Ash was the third. If there are any elims among. Those who voted for Whysper, it'd have to be Ash. What I find strange is that Quinn seems to be nowhere around when all these events happen. I find this silence to be suspicious as someone mentions there were at least 40 mins till the end of cycle for voting for Whysper was brought up. 

Quinn

Would be willing to shift to anyone else other than Araris, Books and Striker tbh. But will shift to Striker if I have to create a gap between Striker and Books. I'll try to stay awake for as long as possible, but no guarantees, I may fall asleep. 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

26 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Araris had a vote sitting on TJ for the entire duration of C2, while he argued during C4 that we shouldn't exe Connie (though he has apparently reversed that particular opinion of his in the interim). Also, Connie/Randby voted Araris in C3 while TJ voted Books.

35 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I could be convinced to move to TJ if someone can differentiate TJ from voting Connie.

Connie's lack of participation recently, even though it's due to RL stuff, makes me think that she's less likely to be elim. She totally could be, but she just hasn't been engaging in events the same way that TJ has, and I personally find it a bit easier to let things slide when I'm elim. Also, I think that the elims would want to take an active role in the thread immediately after losing a teammate, rather than to sit back and watch things play out. This fails if the elims are something like Connie/Ash/Forge or thereabouts, but I'm having a hard time convincing myself of anything like that. Such a team requires 2 elims to have voted Whysper C3, and I don't consider that very plausible.

I think the only reason those two get grouped together to begin with is that they are the non-Quinn/Striker folks that didn't vote Whysper C3. That's the only link between them, really.

I guess I'll ping @Condensation again as a reminder for when she gets back. Also, Happy Birthday! You're now one year closer to becoming a grouchy old SE veteran like me!

Edit: 

1 minute ago, TJ Shade said:

If there are any elims among. Those who voted for Whysper, it'd have to be Ash.

I agree, in part because of the vote on Elandera last cycle.

Edited April 7, 2021 by Araris Valerian

[|TJ| he/him]

14 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Connie's lack of participation recently, even though it's due to RL stuff, makes me think that she's less likely to be elim. She totally could be, but she just hasn't been engaging in events the same way that TJ has, and I personally find it a bit easier to let things slide when I'm elim. Also, I think that the elims would want to take an active role in the thread immediately after losing a teammate, rather than to sit back and watch things play out.

Again, depends on the players and elim team composition. RandBy was almost completely inactive and didn't vote a single cycle when I was elim with her in QF51. Can't recall a game Connie has been an elim in, but the thing is they think any change in the activity level from their usual village game might be seen as suspicious so they try to keep low to match their village activity level, which is the opposing argument to yours. I don't think that I should be suspected because I'm trying to stay active and trying to engage as much as possible.

[Quintessential she/her]

23 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

So I fell asleep, but I woke up thankfully. I went through D3. Forge was the second person to shift to Whysper and Ash was the third. If there are any elims among. Those who voted for Whysper, it'd have to be Ash. What I find strange is that Quinn seems to be nowhere around when all these events happen. I find this silence to be suspicious as someone mentions there were at least 40 mins till the end of cycle for voting for Whysper was brought up. 

How does this make me suspicious? Either I wasn't on at the time, which would be totally NAI, or I was on and didn't see any reason to interfere with Whysper dying, which would be village indicative unless you think it was an elim ploy to bus her? As it happens, I was on up until the last minute (do you want that in blue text? : P), but I was perfectly happy with my vote on Araris and didn't see the need to say anything.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

1 hour ago, Quintessential said:

Oh, actually I had question for @StrikerEZ: were you on for the very end of C3? If you were, was there anything about the progression of votes on Whysper that seemed odd to you?

I was on for the end of that cycle, and did feel that the last minute shift onto Whysper was surprising and concerning, though obviously my misgivings about the shift were wrong.

As for who I'm willing to vote for, I'm willing to vote for any of Books, TJ, Araris, or Quinn (in order of my preference). I really doubt that Ash is an elim, I feel like Connie would be a bit more active if she'd got to pinch hit for an elim, and Forge doesn't feel like an elim to me.

[Flyingbooks]

 

On 4/5/2021 at 8:03 PM, TJ Shade said:

Books could have bussed Whysper, because they were sorta forced to vote for her by Araris. I still stand by my earlier elim read of them just by their posts. But they would not be the first person I would vote out. 

I wasn't forced to vote for her. Araris asked Randby whether she would be willing to vote on Whysper since she was suspicious of basically everyone at the moment. I had grown more suspicious of Whysper after our interactions that cycle, so I offered to switch off of Araris if enough other people were voting on her that it wouldn't be a death sentence.

16 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

1. Myself, Books, and either TJ/Connie. This is for the SE player that is really paranoid about bussing.
2. Quinn, Striker, and either TJ/Connie. My personal view, based on extensive agreement between Quinn and Striker. TJ is elim over Connie at this point.
3. One of Striker/Quinn, and both TJ and Connie. This one is for Striker and Quinn if they decide they don't like the first option.
4. 2 out of Striker/Quinn/TJ/Connie, plus either Forge or Ash. I haven't really put a lot of thought into this one, but it's possible.

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

how would you rank the elim teams I proposed in order of likelihood?

I personally think that 1 is the least possible, for obvious reasons. 4 is the next least likely to me because that would require Ash to have been willing to do some pretty extreme bussing and I'm not really reading Forge as suspicious. It's close, but I feel like 3 is a bit likelier than 2, with Striker as more likely to be elim than Quinn. In team 2, I feel like Connie is a bit more likely than TJ.

People who I could vote for this cycle: Connie, Ash, Quinn, Araris, FMN, Striker, TJ

I'm taking Ash out of the elim pool because he provided a deciding vote on Whysper twice (even though one time was a bit too late)

I'm putting FMN as low-priority (not completely out of my exe pool, but I'd only look at them again if the other possibilities have been exhausted)

That leaves 5 people. I am still suspicious of Araris, but now I'm starting to tinfoil that someone might be trying to frame him, so I'm not as confident in my suspicions of him anymore, so he's going a bit down on my list. That leaves just Striker, Quinn, TJ, and Connie at the top of the suspicion list at the moment, and of those 4 I think that Striker strikes me as the most likely elim.

Striker

[|TJ| he/him]

10 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

As it happens, I was on up until the last minute (do you want that in blue text? : P), but I was perfectly happy with my vote on Araris and didn't see the need to say anything.

Thing is, you always have something to say about things happening, so I feel v!Quinn would have said something about it, or at least some thing about the vote flipping towards Whysper. 

[Quintessential she/her]

1 minute ago, StrikerEZ said:

I was on for the end of that cycle, and did feel that the last minute shift onto Whysper was surprising and concerning, though obviously my misgivings about the shift were wrong.

Okay, that's what I was hoping I'd hear. See, if e!Striker was on at the end of the cycle, then he could have switched from Araris to Books in order to try to save Whysper. Since he didn't do that... well. That makes me feel much better about him. Especially since he and Books are now voting each other, making it seem less likely that e!Striker didn't try to save Whysper because doing so would have been voting off e!Books. 

Just now, TJ Shade said:

Thing is, you always have something to say about things happening, so I feel v!Quinn would have said something about it, or at least some thing about the vote flipping towards Whysper. 

and e!Quinn wouldn't have said something??? As it happens, part of why I didn't is because I was too busy going back and forth between the thread and my notes doc, writing stuff down and keeping the VC up to date, and because one time I did try to write something out but by the time I'd finished, the conversation had totally moved on and it wasn't relevant anymore, so I just gave up and went back to taking notes.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

16 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Again, depends on the players and elim team composition. RandBy was almost completely inactive and didn't vote a single cycle when I was elim with her in QF51. Can't recall a game Connie has been an elim in, but the thing is they think any change in the activity level from their usual village game might be seen as suspicious so they try to keep low to match their village activity level, which is the opposing argument to yours. I don't think that I should be suspected because I'm trying to stay active and trying to engage as much as possible.

Yeah, that’s a good point. I guess I’m just activityist. The point still holds that I’m really not a fan of the Elandera grinch, which you supported. 

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Striker (4): Araris, Forge, Ash, Books
Books (2): Quinn, Striker
Quinn (1): TJ

So, with 2.5 hours left in the Day, we're only missing one vote (@Condensation) and I might die today. So, in order to not die, I'd like propose that we vote on 1 of two people. Either Books or TJ. Connie, @TJ Shade @Ashbringer @forget me not Are any of you willing to move onto Books with me? I feel more strongly about Books being an elim than TJ, and would prefer the vote going on to Books. In addition, Quinn's latest post feels definitely like a village thing to do, to me. I am way too easy of a target to all of a sudden decide that I'm village, when an exe on me can easily distract from an exe on an elim. And I think it's telling that Books has been mostly inactive and is now hopping onto me as soon as there's a slight chance they could get exed again, as in C3. 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I guess I would ask anyone considering voting on Books to also consider that, taken at face value, his interactions with Whysper were very negative, and that in addition, he made several comments that I believe would be contrary to the goal of an elim to stay hidden.

Furthermore, I’ve been basically the only player defending Books this cycle. So if you actually think Books is elim, you probably think I am too. That means that the elim team deliberately put two of its own members in danger C3 just so they could bus a third elim for village credit. And this theoretical ploy has failed rather spectacularly, given that the suspicions of some of the most vocal players have been on Books/myself recently.

[|TJ| he/him]

14 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

and e!Quinn wouldn't have said something???

I don't think so, no. Anything you say you'd be in trouble later if Whysper flips elim. Defending Whysper was dangerous as it looked like she might get killed and bussing would be a risk (if all voters on Whysper are village) as the vote was close and there was a chance Whysper could have survived. So I can't think of something e!Quinn would say at this moment which would be beneficial to her. The best course of action for an elim was to stay silent. 

@StrikerEZ, I believe you're village but I believe Books is one too, as I've been saying the entire half cycle. 

[StrikerEZ he/him]

2 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

@StrikerEZ, I believe you're village but I believe Books is one too, as I've been saying the entire half cycle. 

Anyone else you'd be willing to vote for that isn't me, Quinn, or Books then? I'm leaning village on you right now, I think. And Ash. So, I guess I'd be fine with voting on anyone else. But...man, an Araris/Forge/Connie team just doesn't seem quite right to me, unless there's been something really funky happening this game. I still think it's possible that Books is an elim, but I'd be willing to vote on Araris or Connie. I don't think Forge is an elim.

[Quintessential she/her]

Shoot, I had a whole big post in response to @Araris Valerian and then lost it loading Striker's comment.

To summarize my points:

• Books may appear at face value to be cleared, but the thing is we can't really afford to take things at face value anymore. If we could, I'd be assuming the team was Striker/Connie/TJ and not questioning the fact that Striker has half the votes in the game and that TJ isn't doing anything to save him.
• You may be the only one openly defending Books, but Ash and Forge are both voting Striker rather than Books as well, and TJ (who voted when the VC was Striker-Books 3-2 I think?) is voting a Books voter. Also, Connie could easily be their teammate and not be doing anything because she's not on. So basically, there are plenty of candidates for Books teammates, and plenty of people either indirectly defending them or unable to do so.
• Actually, the exact argument you just tried to use for Books could be used much more effectively for Striker. Like I said, he has half the votes in the game. The only people defending him are... well, me. And TJ, but TJ's not doing anything to actually save him, so it wouldn't make sense to put him on a team with us, meaning that if you think Striker is elim at this point, you think the team is me/Striker/Connie. Period. No elim is gonna bus this cycle, and it's too late and the train on Striker is too long for us to think those votes are distancing.
• Also, has anyone else noticed that the same four people voting Striker were the ones voting Whysper in C3??? Seriously, how does that happen?

@TJ Shade I'm not gonna argue the point further with you, but I just didn't have much to say, and what I did have to say, I didn't have the time to actually type out before things changed and it became irrelevant. Far as I'm concerned, that's at least NAI. If you're gonna vote me, you could at least go find some Whysper interactions or something--I village-read her up until she died, so there's at least some stuff where you could read it as me defending her : P.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

4 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Also, has anyone else noticed that the same four people voting Striker were the ones voting Whysper in C3??? Seriously, how does that happen?

I did notice this, and it makes me more comfortable with how things are going, if anything. I’m also happy with that team, although I think an argument could still be made for TJ.

Maybe we can’t afford to take things at face value. But sometimes the most likely explanation is the right one, and I don’t think we have enough evidence to the contrary to make the opposite determination (I think the other evidence supports Books, in fact).

[|TJ| he/him]

21 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Anyone else you'd be willing to vote for that isn't me, Quinn, or Books then? I'm leaning village on you right now, I think. And Ash. So, I guess I'd be fine with voting on anyone else. But...man, an Araris/Forge/Connie team just doesn't seem quite right to me, unless there's been something really funky happening this game. I still think it's possible that Books is an elim, but I'd be willing to vote on Araris or Connie. I don't think Forge is an elim.

Connie

*sigh* It's 4am, and I think I'll head to bed.

[Quintessential she/her]

Just now, TJ Shade said:

Connie

*sigh* It's 4am, and I think I'll head to bed.

>> c'mon, there's gotta be someone you're willing to vote who's not inactive. that seems a little unfair to Connie  even if she is elim, there are still two others out there.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Connie (Books)

@Quintessential Are you willing to change your vote to Connie? I understand that you'd probably prefer to vote Books (as would I), but if you really do think I'm village, I think Connie is our best bet. And I know it's not the best option, but hey, I'll take what I can get.

Edited April 7, 2021 by StrikerEZ
No, I did not vote on Connie before changing my vote to Connie....

[Quintessential she/her]

Just now, StrikerEZ said:

@Quintessential Are you willing to change your vote to Connie? I understand that you'd probably prefer to vote Books (as would I), but if you really do think I'm village, I think Connie is our best bet. And I know it's not the best option, but hey, I'll take what I can get.

I think Connie is a better bet than you, so I'll do it for now. But I don't like this. Not at all. I may trust you somewhat but I don't trust TJ, who's the one who started it, and she can't be on to defend herself, and I'm pretty certain about (Books) at this point.

If we can get one of  @Ashbringer or @forget me not to switch to Books, would you vote them with me? That would be a tie, at least.