Mid-Range Game 49: Lode of Luthadel

[Mat he/him]

34 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I guess I'd understand if you used this logic to go for me instead, but I'd bring up the fact that Archer has been involved in a lot of stuff so far, and will probably give more info than my flip will.

I won't, because I still generally village read you :/ The fact that Archer is being logical isn't helping xD

4 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

More often than not, I die early and it turns out I was village, for the same reasons that people exed or killed me in the last games.

I mean strictly speaking of course you'll be village more often; it's more likely to roll village than elim.

[|TJ| he/him]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Only editing to tag @Whysper who @TJ Shade forgot to tag in the OP and instead tagged Ventyl, which I just noticed, and it'd be a real shame if she missed the entire cycle  

smh thanks >>

44 minutes ago, Dannex said:

Pssst

@TJ Shade

can I snag a spec doc

  Reveal hidden contents

I have so many reads I want to share but I can’t cause I’m not actually in this game agghhhhhh

 

Please just PM me next time :P.

[---]

1 hour ago, Quintessential said:

Also, note that because we don't know which team attacked each of you, we haven't even opened a door, so to speak. We know you can't be on the same team, but originally you could have been, and that probability transfers. The Monty Hall problem is just an example of that larger phenomenon. : P

Where the heck is Araris when you need him

And arent mathematical proofs dumb like can't you prove anything especially if it's to someone who doesn't know math

48 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

(side-note: apparently no one believes the future engineering major who once took an entire class devoted to probability on how the math around this actually works. Great. Cool. Good to know. >>)

You did mess up the math in lg74, just saying <3 

Well either that or Araris did but-

On mobile rn but I don't like Archer antagonizing the fact that Striker dies early? Pointing that out is completely NAI imo, and the times it's antagonized it's usually the elims trying to find something. I personally think it's because of strikers tone more that he dies early. Because other people say things too and don't get killed, but striker says things with a sorta tone that always feels forced/fake to me for some reason? Even though I know it's not. I also don't usually listen to that sorta thing though? Unlike mat, a had a really early village read on striker in the game he was village, so I'm obviously an expert on reading striker now as well :P.

[Quintessential she/her]

13 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

misdirection from the fact that we know we can't both be elims, and if one of us does flip elim, there are literally less options for them to be an elim, so therefore they are less likely to be one overall. 

: P you both can't be elims. That's... like, a major point of what I was--oh whatever. The sole point of that post is to clarify why I'm annoyed at the discussions around the "probability" of you vs. Archer being elim. I wasn't trying to misdirect or anything, I was just frustrated that people are throwing around statements that aren't actually true and then not listening when I said they weren't. 

Anyway, this discussion isn't actually getting us anywhere at this point. 

I notice that we've been focusing way more on the people who didn't flip last cycle than on the person who did. So, in the interests of hopefully having something more productive to talk about:

@Illwei @Liranil @StrikerEZ and @Biplet, since I'm too lazy to look back at C1 and I suspect I'm not the only one who is (or who doesn't have the time), would you mind briefly explaining why you voted for STINK?

Edit: @Illwei when did I mess up math in LG74?

Edited March 19, 2021 by Quintessential

[---]

3 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

: P you both can't be elims.

???? Yes they can totally be e/e2. It would definitely be hilarious, and it's definitely not a relationship that you can actually get anything out of but they d definitely can both be evil ???

EDIT : and striker what??? It doesn't matter what either of you flip elim. All well know is the team that tried to kill you, but it doesn't change the fact that you can't be on the team that killed you???

Edited March 19, 2021 by Illwei

[Quintessential she/her]

Just now, Illwei said:

???? Yes they can totally be e/e2. It would definitely be hilarious, and it's definitely not a relationship that you can actually get anything out of but they d definitely can both be evil ???

Wait wait wait oh you're right sorry I was copying Striker's phrasing without thinking about it XD I meant they can't both be the same kind of elims : P

[---]

@TJ Shade will you put the kills in the same order every day

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

@TJ Shade will you put the kills in the same order every day

Ooooh good question

He said they wouldn't be differentiated so I assume no? Though I also assume he won't tell us :P.

[Biplet she/her]

 

9 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

would you mind briefly explaining why you voted for STINK?

I voted for STINK because 

1. I didn’t have many suspicions, because this is only my second game and I’m still not sure HOW y’all manage to find stuff to vote on D1

2. I didn’t vote D1 in LG74, which was my first game. I’m pretty determined to participate more this game

3. As I mentioned in the last cycle, it felt like you (Quinn), STINK, and Archer were in the middle of something. I was hesitant to vote on you because you died early last game and I’d feel bad contributing to your C1 death

4. I quite honestly didn’t know what to do. I didn’t want to throw away my vote for no reason, but I didn’t want to contribute to a tie and leave the exe up to RNG. I’m going to be brutally honest, I don’t understand voting C1, I had no good reasons, and I voted for the sake of voting. 

[Random Bystander she/her]

1 minute ago, Biplet said:

I didn’t have many suspicions, because this is only my second game and I’m still not sure HOW y’all manage to find stuff to vote on D1

Yes. This is how I feel. Yes.

[|TJ| he/him]

5 minutes ago, Illwei said:

@TJ Shade will you put the kills in the same order every day

PAFO

[+Whysper she/her]

46 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Probability and actuality are two different things. Assuming 3-elim teams, the probability that any given player is elim is 6/18, or 1/3, because that's what it was when the alignments were actually set. After that, regardless of what we learn about players and their relationships to each other, the probabilities are fixed. The fact that we now know Striker and Archer can't be on the same elim team doesn't mean they couldn't have been--that was a possibility at the start, when roles and alignments were actually distributed. Our knowledge of a situation doesn't change the situation itself. Our knowledge of the actuality doesn't change the probability. 

I'm pretty sure you are misapplying the math. Using that scenario where 6 out of 18 players are Elim, suppose you were lucky and did flip all 6 Elims. That knowledge does affect the rest of the players. You can't tell me that the remaining 12 players still have a 1/3 chance of being Elim.  You are right that it doesn't change what their original probability was, but you certainly know that the rest have 0 chance of being Elim now.  

[---]

4 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

PAFO

@TJ ShadeShadeShadeShadShadeShadeShadeShadShadeShadeSh

Akay the more I press the delete button the more those show up I don't know why I don't know why but aaaaaaaaa

Anyways, back to the message I meant to send

>:(

[+Whysper she/her]

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Only editing to tag @Whysper who @TJ Shade forgot to tag in the OP and instead tagged Ventyl, which I just noticed, and it'd be a real shame if she missed the entire cycle  

BTW, thanks for tagging me. I did see the updated thread earlier today but didn't get a chance to read much or reply.

I'm going through and trying to understand where everyone is at with Archer and Striker now.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

34 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

: P you both can't be elims. That's... like, a major point of what I was--oh whatever.

 

31 minutes ago, Illwei said:

???? Yes they can totally be e/e2. It would definitely be hilarious, and it's definitely not a relationship that you can actually get anything out of but they d definitely can both be evil ???

EDIT : and striker what??? It doesn't matter what either of you flip elim. All well know is the team that tried to kill you, but it doesn't change the fact that you can't be on the team that killed you???

I definitely meant to say something along the lines of us not being able to be on the same team.  This is what I get for rushing that post right before I needed to leave to go get food.

36 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

@Illwei @Liranil @StrikerEZ and @Biplet, since I'm too lazy to look back at C1 and I suspect I'm not the only one who is (or who doesn't have the time), would you mind briefly explaining why you voted for STINK?

It was mostly due to how people were talking about him and how you and Archer had interacted. I felt like it was possible he was an elim for one of you being his mistborn, or he was the mistborn to one of y'all being the elim. Obviously, he flipped village, so that whole connection has been thrown out the window, but I still think Archer is independently suspicious. Maybe it would've been better to vote Archer out last cycle, but I thought maybe getting a hint at your alignment if Stink flipped elim was worth not going for Archer.

[Quintessential she/her]

4 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Maybe it would've been better to vote Archer out last cycle, but I thought maybe getting a hint at your alignment if Stink flipped elim was worth not going for Archer.

I mean you coulda voted me  

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Just now, Quintessential said:

I mean you coulda voted me  

Well, yes, but you were the one I was the least certain of at the time. I would've been more interested in voting you if Stink had flipped elim.

[Liranil she/her]

11 hours ago, Illwei said:

I'd also like to look at people who aren't Archer and Striker this cycle, because it seems that a number of people have latched onto them for some reason, when I agree here actually that going after them makes less sense, because they have 50% less chance of being an Elim than the other people. They technically are two people who we know for sure will die, but that doesn't feel like a good reason tbh :P.

I agree with this.

4 hours ago, Quintessential said:

Liranil for the same reasons/tinfoil as last cycle (plus I agree with whoever pointed it out that she's playing a bit more conservatively than usual).

Really? I'm playing more conservatively? I'm definitely posting less b/c I have a lot of homework that's due real soon. But if we're looking at meta (*cough*), how am I different than usual? (Also @ whoever mentioned it before because I missed that)

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I'm of the opinion of letting the elim teams kill Archer and Striker and finding a new target today that isn't Liranil :P.

Retweet.

1 hour ago, Quintessential said:

 

@Illwei @Liranil @StrikerEZ and @Biplet, since I'm too lazy to look back at C1 and I suspect I'm not the only one who is (or who doesn't have the time), would you mind briefly explaining why you voted for STINK?

Honestly, it was mostly random for me, it just seemed like there was more "against" them. I haven't played a ton of games, but I've played enough to become jaded towards C1 votes. I was honestly considering moving my vote to Archer at the end but didn't have time to submit. It was basically an "eh, why not" vote... which isn't the best reasoning, I know.

Okay. So. I have a tinfoilly Archer theory that doesn't contribute much so feel free to ignore it. BUT Archer voted on Striker, right? So if Archer's a Mistborn for one of the elim teams, then his fellow elims may have seen that as a signal and voted to NK Striker...

Idk guys. I've been reading too much Agatha Christie lately so my brain is seeing connections where there probably aren't any. I agree with Matrim that voting people because they weren't on at the end of the cycle last time isn't a good idea. 

Also, I forgot to quote it, but yeah, Archer, I forgot you had more votes early on. Oops.

So basically, I'm tinfoiling that at least one Mistborn voted on either Striker or Archer, I don't think voting on them does much good since they might be NK'd and the elims know for sure that they Archer or Striker are not on their team(s). 

Also, I'm not a Mistborn, not that that means anything coming from you. 

Anyway... Ventyl @Ventyl (This is a poke vote cuz I don't remember hearing much from them lately.)

Edited March 19, 2021 by Liranil

[Quintessential she/her]

5 minutes ago, Liranil said:

Anyway... Ventyl @Ventyl (This is a poke vote cuz I don't remember hearing much from them lately.)

(Ventyl replaced out--that slot is now taken by Whysper)

 

[+Whysper she/her]

5 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

10 minutes ago, Liranil said:

Anyway... Ventyl @Ventyl (This is a poke vote cuz I don't remember hearing much from them lately.)

(Ventyl replaced out--that slot is now taken by Whysper)

Thanks for pointing this out.  

12 minutes ago, Liranil said:

Okay. So. I have a tinfoilly Archer theory that doesn't contribute much so feel free to ignore it. BUT Archer voted on Striker, right? So if Archer's a Mistborn for one of the elim teams, then his fellow elims may have seen that as a signal and voted to NK Striker...

Actually that's not that bad of a theory.

[Liranil she/her]

9 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

(Ventyl replaced out--that slot is now taken by Whysper)

 

Oof, I forgot! Apologies to Ventyl for tagging you. I looked at the wrong player list. 

So... Ventyl. Uh... Experience got a warning and still hasn't said anything. @Experience, you staying in the game?

And, if someone wants to tell me who to vote for, I'm willing to prove that I'm willing to vote for anybody.  

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Liranil said:

So... Ventyl. Uh... Experience got a warning and still hasn't said anything. @Experience, you staying in the game?

Exp hasn't been online since the 11th, so I... doubt it :P.

[+Whysper she/her]

2 minutes ago, Liranil said:

And, if someone wants to tell me who to vote for, I'm willing to prove that I'm willing to vote for anybody.

Originally I wasn't sure I liked the reasoning people were using for a vote on Archer. But now with your additional theory about Archer's vote on Striker maybe being taken as a signal for the NK, it does make more sense. And since quite a few people are wondering about them, I think we probably should just resolve it.

Archer

[---]

1 hour ago, Quintessential said:

Edit: @Illwei when did I mess up math in LG74?

With the mistborn RNG stuffs.

1 hour ago, Liranil said:

Idk guys. I've been reading too much Agatha Christie lately so my brain is seeing connections where there probably aren't any. I agree with Matrim that voting people because they weren't on at the end of the cycle last time isn't a good idea. 

All we have is connections in this game, Imo. so, ya know :P. See something Say Something :P.

[Quintessential she/her]

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

With the mistborn RNG stuffs.

1 hour ago, Liranil said:

Did I mess that up? If I did it was 'cause I misunderstood how the metals were chosen, not 'cause I did the math wrong : P