Long Game 74: You Want It Darker

[Quintessential she/her]

26 minutes ago, Elandera said:

I'm going to point out Fallion's Four (great name @TJ Shade) seemed to have all been suspicious of each other D1, but still claimed within a few days of that suspicion? Definitely worried about some kind of elim plot cooked up by Maill to make their machinations look village....

I had mild and very brief bouts of paranoia about both Maill and Tani--but Maill it was because I thought he was sheeping my vote on Illwei to try to pocket me (when apparently he hadn't seen that I was voting her, or at least not why, and came to the conclusion independently) and Tani has continued to do her vote-hopping thing and it looks pretty vil to me.

Would note that both Tani and Maill approached me and asked to trade--or, I believe in Tani's case she just claimed lol. Then we realized we'd all claimed to each other, and Maill added us to a group PM with him and Stick, who was apparently his other strong village read? At that point, Tani claimed Mistborn and asked for advice on what to do with her steel, and I felt safe claiming in the group because I'm not a Mistborn or a Seeker or anything so I figured that at least I'd have some warning before I died if one of us was elim, in the form of Tani being killed. At that point I think I was pretty sure Tani herself was village, based on her actions in-thread and in PMs.

26 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Part of me feels the Mistborn claim could have been an attempt to ease that suspicion. I wouldn't expect that of a new player, but Tani herself pointed out she's played games like this before and anyone would be hesitant to act against someone who claimed village Mistborn and had some ability to at least prove the role.

I came into SE with the exact same kind of experience that Tani has, down to the same games, and claiming is essentially not a thing in Avalon and not really in Werewolf either, because of the way those games are set up. So the kind of experience she has wouldn't (I don't think) preclude her from claiming pretty frequently. I guess I read Tani village independently (and not just in conjunction with Matrim or Maill) because her actions so far feel exactly like my actions in MR46--I was brand new to being village, unsure what to do about claiming, and trying to figure out how to do stuff in PMs without everything exploding in my face. I ended up claiming to most or all of the people I talked to, going back and forth between them saying to each that I was paranoid of the others, and eventually ended up claiming to the thread (albeit with a less important role) once I realized I'd screwed up. 

15 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Hmm, I’m not really sure I agree with your methodology, @Quintessential. You have an underlying assumption that any significant vote train will have at least one elim in it. However, if all of the potential grinch targets up to now have been village, then there isn’t really much backing for that assumption, since the elims could just as easily sit back and let us kill each other. In fact, your methodology penalizes players who are active and are willing to contribute.

That methodology has yet to be wrong for any game that I've played, and until I see a time when it is I'm gonna keep using it. Every time I've been elim, my team and I haven't been able to just sit back and let the village kill each other because they inevitably turn against one of us eventually, either for what we say or the fact that we don't say anything. We almost had an entirely village train on Dannex in QF50 but then it began to slip and one of us had to vote on it to keep the village from shifting to Lotus, who was elim with us. From personal experience as both villager and elim I feel comfortable using this assumption most of the time, except if A. the exe target is elim or B. all of the possible trains had less than 4 people on them.

(Edit: Probably worth mentioning that part of the reason I trust that assumption is that it was what allowed me to guess the full elim team in the MR. I don't expect to be 100% right with it all the time, especially with so many unconfirmed people as of now, but I feel comfortable relying on it somewhat.

Also, I put those sets in but I actually never ended up using them for that last bit, where I talked about who I believed to be village and who I thought was elim. The only time I used them was just to verify that my working guess for the elim team fit with the assumptions I'd made earlier : P)

15 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

My approach (and several of the options I proposed in my post where I voted for you), is to clarify whether any elims have actually been in danger (via Reading, and to a lesser extent, Illwei) and/or grinch some inactives to see if the elims are hiding there. I think it makes more sense to do that than to kill off our voting population based on a flawed assumption. Of course, this is purely from a vote analysis perspective. 

Since we haven't exed any elims yet, we don't know whether any elims have been in danger yet  once we have a confirmed elim I fully intend to go back through and look for those, but not before then.

15 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I also think an elim might deliberately use your process to chain a whole bunch of misgrinches. Just say “X group has at least one elim”, and then proceed to find, 5 villagers later, that there aren’t actually any elims in that group. I also feel like if you actually believed your analysis, you’d be voting on me or Stick, since that is the smallest group you give that supposedly has at least one elim, and you even have us both in your proposed team. But instead your analysis lead you to retract from Stick.

You're wording that wrong : P My analysis didn't lead me to retract from Stick, it lead me to vote on Maill. If I could vote on both of them and you all at once I would, but I can't so I have to choose one. Of the three of you, Maill currently seems the most likely to actually be exed, will give the most information, and of everyone I'm suspicious of, you and him are tied for most suspicious. Therefore, right now the logical choice is to vote Maill. 

11 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

She told us what she rolled D1? I just went back to the PM and I can't find it?

Oh! Wait sorry no she didn't; I thought you were talking about the metal she rolled today for some reason. But yes, she told at least me what she rolled on D1 (it was Pewter--I doubt she'll mind my saying that. Of course, there's nothing whatsoever to prove that but I'm inclined to believe it for the moment. Unless she told you something else, I guess).

Edited March 6, 2021 by Quintessential

[Quivil]

3 hours ago, Elandera said:

Who am I to disagree? Kas

No killing the narrator!

[|TJ| he/him]

@Quintessential I partially agree with Araris. Vote analysis is a helpful tool, but it shouldn't be used only by itself. The thing is you're purely using only votes to determine your suspects while foregoing or forgetting the reasoning behind them. For example, my D1 vote was late only because of IRL reasoning, which have started multiple times before, but you think it's suspicious anyway. My vote on D2, was because no one wanted to join me on Gears, and Striker was feeling very villagery in his sudden jump on giving me strong elim read for me mentioning LG67 Ventyl stuff, exactly like village Striker in LG73, jumping to form you, Illwei, Matrim team. Pyro was an alternative at a possibility to save Striker and I took it, cause I had a strong village feeling about Striker and slight evil towards Pyro. 

I also disagree with your reasoning on Ashbringer, in fact I read him as elim for the exact same reasoning you gave. Not voting in self-preservation is a very good way of earning village cred, and I think there's a chance he's done this here. Why would a villager not self-preserve when they know only their alignment with 100% certainty? He claimed he read Striker as village, then why didn't he vote on Pyro to save him? You say he voted on his suspicion who was...TUO? And the vote looked more like a poke? Like "Hey TUO, what are your thoughts?" That's what I meant in the original post when as I said it was suspicious that he left the vote on TUO at EoD. Elims actually have a reason to not self-press if they know a teammate is going to save them, as they get village cred. 

Quote

it was Pewter--I doubt she'll mind my saying that. Of course, there's nothing whatsoever to prove that but I'm inclined to believe it for the moment. Unless she told you something else, I guess

Wait what? Isn't pewter use passive? I thought it was removed from RNG consideration for Mistborn? @Kasimir

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Since we haven't exed any elims yet, we don't know whether any elims have been in danger yet  once we have a confirmed elim I fully intend to go back through and look for those, but not before then.

I guess I'm trying to say that your assumption of elim participation is somewhat weakened if Reading flips village, since that means there has been little to no vote pressure on the elims so far. Similarly, if it turns out that multiple elims are lurking, your assumption is weakened further.

I also think that while your assumption could be right most of the time, your analysis assumes it is correct in each and every case, which seems far less likely to me. You have 6 groups of people that you think have an elim in them. The odds that all of those groups actually have an elim is rather low, I think.

1 hour ago, Quintessential said:

Araris is elim (started the vote on Reading, voted on Ash but then started the vote on Pyro as soon as the Ash train lost steam). 
Ash is village (I don't think Ash is elim with Araris, and aside from that he didn't self-pres on Striker when he had the chance; instead he voted on TUO, whom he suspected).
Reading is village (Araris started the train on him)

I'm personally offended that you think so little of my bussing capabilities .

More seriously, I have a slightly more personal reason to oppose your reasoning, being that it has allowed you to cast suspicion on me without actually saying anything suspicious that I've done. Like, I'm in your top three suspicions by virtue of... participating in the game, as best as I can tell. 

18 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

But yes, she told at least me what she rolled on D1 (it was Pewter--I doubt she'll mind my saying that. Of course, there's nothing whatsoever to prove that but I'm inclined to believe it for the moment. Unless she told you something else, I guess).

Yeah, revealing this might not have been a great idea, since like TJ said, you have significantly lower chances of rolling an ability a second time. I think there is a 4/10 chance to reroll, and then a 1/8 chance to get pewter. So only 1/20 chance that she gets it again, which if Tani is village, will make the elims more likely to target her. Also, in general, I would say not to reveal someone else's claim without their consent.

[Elandera she/her]

16 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Wait what? Isn't pewter use passive? I thought it was removed from RNG consideration for Mistborn?

From a prior clarification about something unrelated:

Quote

Obviously if it's during the Day, it can't be a Lurch, but I won't clear up if the player is definitely a Thug or a Mistborn who drew Pewter.

So yes, a Mistborn can get Pewter. That just means they don't have to take an action that turn.

Edit: @STINK Udon teriyaki noodles

Edited March 6, 2021 by Elandera

[Quivil]

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

Now, Fallion's Four (yes, I'm calling you that, it's the Shadesmar Eight of this game, deal with it :P), please give your reads on every other member of the group (not just like vote placement suspicions, but everything as a whole) [ @Mailliw73 @Quintessential @Tani @_Stick_ ]

Elim>Maill>Stick>Quinn>Villiage>me. . Yes I trust myself more than villagers. Also Maill is scary.

29 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

I came into SE with the exact same kind of experience that Tani has, down to the same games, and claiming is essentially not a thing in Avalon and not really in Werewolf either, because of the way those games are set up. So the kind of experience she has wouldn't (I don't think) preclude her from claiming pretty frequently. I guess I read Tani village independently (and not just in conjunction with Matrim or Maill) because her actions so far feel exactly like my actions in MR46--I was brand new to being village, unsure what to do about claiming, and trying to figure out how to do stuff in PMs without everything exploding in my face. I ended up claiming to most or all of the people I talked to, going back and forth between them saying to each that I was paranoid of the others, and eventually ended up claiming to the thread (albeit with a less important role) once I realized I'd screwed up. 

In Mafia games I've played, usually claiming starts around the second or third round. It works best when everyone knows exactly how many of each role there is. I thought it might work in this but then figured out it wouldn't bc I don't know how many of all the roles there are and I wouldn't be about to just throw every role at the feet of anyone I didn't trust.

29 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Oh! Wait sorry no she didn't; I thought you were talking about the metal she rolled today for some reason. But yes, she told at least me what she rolled on D1 (it was Pewter--I doubt she'll mind my saying that. Of course, there's nothing whatsoever to prove that but I'm inclined to believe it for the moment. Unless she told you something else, I guess).

Ya I drew Pewter first round. My current draw probly won't help y'all either.

[STINK he/him]

16 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Udon teriyaki noodles

Oh wow sounds real nice I'm glad I got dinner in like 20 mins now

[Stick. she/her]

33 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

I also disagree with your reasoning on Ashbringer, in fact I read him as elim for the exact same reasoning you gave. Not voting in self-preservation is a very good way of earning village cred, and I think there's a chance he's done this here. Why would a villager not self-preserve when they know only their alignment with 100% certainty? He claimed he read Striker as village, then why didn't he vote on Pyro to save him? You say he voted on his suspicion who was...TUO? And the vote looked more like a poke? Like "Hey TUO, what are your thoughts?" That's what I meant in the original post when as I said it was suspicious that he left the vote on TUO at EoD. Elims actually have a reason to not self-press if they know a teammate is going to save them, as they get village cred.

Yup - I think village!Ash probably would've voted for self-pres like both Striker and Pyro did, whereas elims!Ash can rely on their teammates to lead the exe away from them. Ash for now

Alright so I went and reread all of Gears' posts, and well like a number of people have pointed out, I see an interesting lack of actual participation and more of just describing the current situation of the game

From Day 1, their first post is RP + Role analysis, most of which written pre-game - NAI

The second post explains the confusion around first post, defends Striker, says they don’t really have a read on Striker, and expresses village reads on Books and myself - both Striker and Books are cleared villagers, and I know that I’m a villager, so to me this post is basically Gears expressing positive opinions on villagers. Kind of sus.

In the third post they vote for Books for the same reason everyone else did, Striker, Ventyl, Fifth, and I do not seem suspicious, TUO does seem suspicious, Maill and Tani are ‘noted’ - note that while Gears does provide plenty of reads here, none of them are supported by any kind of reasoning

The fourth post explains their vote on Books a little better and clears up some stuff for Striker regarding how the back-and-forth between illwei and Quinn was normal and basically NAI, and reassures Bip to vote the way she wants to. This post honestly just looks village to me. 

At this point I got lazy and stopped taking notes on every post, but instead just read through them and noted down things that stood out

This post from D2 is interesting because they say that they do not agree with the Striker exe, and do not necessarily agree with the Ash exe either. Says they’d probably abstain from voting because they have no suspicions. My problem with this post is that they are just stating what’s going on in-thread, not too proactive 

From the post from Night 2 Here, they still don’t have any suspicions, and ask people to provide reasoning for executing striker - they don’t really ever provide any reads of their own apart from those during D1

Now a combination of all of these things would normally be super suspicious to me, but I'm not voting on @Gears just yet because they've mentioned in several of these posts how they have RL commitments that have restricted them from spending too much time on the game - which is understandable. It does render most of these things NAI, though, which is sad.  

edit: I do not know why all the links are in different colours, im sorry lol it does look ugly

Edited March 6, 2021 by _Stick_

[Elandera she/her]

11 minutes ago, Tani said:

Yes I trust myself more than villagers.

So you don't count yourself among the village?

[Quivil]

4 minutes ago, Elandera said:

So you don't count yourself among the village?

I do. I mean I trust myself more than anyone else, whether or not they're proven village.

Clarification edit: I do count myself among the village.

Edited March 6, 2021 by Tani
clarification

[Illwei]

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

Note to self (or anyone ISOing Maill): Check if this has been mentioned in thread

Did I miss the post that said when the group was made? because....hm

Quote

I would be okay with looking at TJ, but we haven't had many interactions. Gears, I would put at mild vil/null, Quinn: mild-moderate vil, TUO null, Pyro medium elim(see below), Fifth would be more mild village, Experience mild elim, Araris null, and Bip mild village. I'd agree with the rest of his reads. Stick is one that feels village to me, but has had interesting votes, so depending on how the night goes, I want to maybe look into her more.

This and the vote post, which I don't have a link to, are his trusts. I believe this was N2 though?
--

49 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Matrim is elim (this is a bit more tentative, but... well, look. Matrim has voted exactly one person this entire game, and expressed strong suspicion of exactly one person this entire game, and that person flipped village. And then Mat didn't really... stop and reconsider, exactly? Like, if you're a villager and you're tunneling hard enough on someone that they're the only person you ever have a vote on for the first two cycles, then you're gonna need to do some pretty serious rethinking once they flip village, right? And I don't recall really seeing that from Mat. Last Night the only two suspicions he mentioned were on Tani and Maill.)

I'd point you to LG73- and maybe this is why Mat keeps getting stuck on Striker, because they think similarly? but look at Striker in LG73. He decided on a You/Me/Mat Elim team from basically D1. Maybe it's just that I usually read certain tunnels as more likely village.

23 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

all of the possible trains had less than 4 people on them.

Reminder that we have 28 people in this game (well, less now) and they're all pretty active. which is pretty pog. 4 people on a wagon is barely any of that :P.

1 hour ago, Quintessential said:

and aside from that he didn't self-pres on Striker when he had the chance

12 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Why would a villager not self-preserve when they know only their alignment with 100% certainty?

I also agree with this, my opinion is that you should always self pres, because you're the only person you know that you can trust. I know that some people don't feel that way: IE: Mat in LG73, but that was also a different scenario imo where he felt that he was going to die anyways. or...something.

cries in MR46

3 minutes ago, Tani said:

It works best when everyone knows exactly how many of each role there is. I thought it might work in this but then figured out it wouldn't bc I don't know how many of all the roles there are and I wouldn't be about to just throw every role at the feet of anyone I didn't trust.

Yeah, here the distribution is usually ...is bizzare the right word? unpredictable usually? enough? Sometimes people try speculating about the setup but...that just is usually...not helpful for the most part :P. For all we know the only roles in this game is Mistborn :P. Well, okay, with Bard's flip...and Experiences... that implies that's not the case- but still! :P.

[Quintessential she/her]

3 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

@Quintessential I partially agree with Araris. Vote analysis is a helpful tool, but it shouldn't be used only by itself. The thing is you're purely using only votes to determine your suspects while foregoing or forgetting the reasoning behind them. For example, my D1 vote was late only because of IRL reasoning, which have started multiple times before, but you think it's suspicious anyway. My vote on D2, was because no one wanted to join me on Gears, and Striker was feeling very villagery in his sudden jump on giving me strong elim read for me mentioning LG67 Ventyl stuff, exactly like village Striker in LG73, jumping to form you, Illwei, Matrim team. Pyro was an alternative at a possibility to save Striker and I took it, cause I had a strong village feeling about Striker and slight evil towards Pyro. 

There is a reason that I'm only leaning elim on you : P. Your late votes did need some context, and given that I'd already spent like... a good four hours on that post I didn't have the energy to go back and look for it. So thank you for providing it.

The reason I'm looking at votes only, and not reasoning, is that it's pretty easy for elims to come up with a reasonable explanation for a vote most of the time, if they're putting that effort in and the safety of a teammate isn't on the line. If I'm looking at the reasoning behind every vote, and not just the patterns of votes themselves, I either end up thinking every vote with explanation is reasonable or I tinfoil myself into thinking none of them are. Neither state is particularly productive, and I have no idea how to achieve a middle ground there, so this is my attempt to try to avoid that. (obviously IRL reasons for voting a certain way are different and not AI, so yeah--less suspicion on you knowing that that was the reason for your D1 late vote).

Just now, Araris Valerian said:

I guess I'm trying to say that your assumption of elim participation is somewhat weakened if Reading flips village, since that means there has been little to no vote pressure on the elims so far. Similarly, if it turns out that multiple elims are lurking, your assumption is weakened further.

I edited this into my previous post, but since you appear not to have seen it, I'll reiterate it here: I didn't actually end up using that assumption for any of the conclusions I came to, except for my working elim team guess (which is literally only there so that I can claim to have superpowers if I happened to be right). I listed the assumption because I thought I might need it, but right now not enough people have flipped for me to be able to use it to any degree of precision anyway. 

Also: last game I was tied with Brighteyes, and each of us had four votes. Brighteyes lost the tie, flipping village. I was also village. Turned out, there was one elim on Brighteyes and there were two on me. When there are two large trains, any elims that vote are going to spread out between those two trains to try to distance themselves. That's why the assumption works with v/v pairs. 

If multiple elims are lurking, everyone's assumptions and analyses are weakened further because we can't analyze people who don't do stuff. I'm not gonna go on a contribution crusade, especially when there is as yet no evidence that the majority of the team is lurking! This is just--gah, I'm actually frustrated that you think this is a valid criticism. Especially since I composed a list of every player who didn't vote in both previous cycles, so unless you think that the team includes the five people who didn't vote in either cycle (Elandera, TUO, Burnt, STINK, and Daisy), my analysis will at least consider most of the team.

12 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

More seriously, I have a slightly more personal reason to oppose your reasoning, being that it has allowed you to cast suspicion on me without actually saying anything suspicious that I've done. Like, I'm in your top three suspicions by virtue of... participating in the game, as best as I can tell. 

K, first of all please stop trying to tell me not to be suspicious of active people. I can't help who I'm suspicious of, and I can't help that it's impossible for me to formulate reads on people who don't say anything or don't vote much, and I can't help that the people who will give us the most information upon their deaths are the ones who talk the most.

Second of all, it's not that you're participating that I find suspicious, it's how. In my general (though somewhat limited) experience, villagers don't keep their poke-votes on someone else for the entire cycle, even after that train picks up, unless they were genuinely inactive (which you weren't). That was what happened with Reading. Also in my general experience, villagers will occasionally stop voting on a train they think isn't going anywhere, but when they do they move to a train that is, or don't immediately vote at all. Moving to someone with no votes on them and then staying there usually just means your vote isn't going to count for anything--which isn't something that villagers generally want, but I've definitely done that as elim and seen it done by other elims.

38 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

I also disagree with your reasoning on Ashbringer, in fact I read him as elim for the exact same reasoning you gave. Not voting in self-preservation is a very good way of earning village cred, and I think there's a chance he's done this here. Why would a villager not self-preserve when they know only their alignment with 100% certainty? He claimed he read Striker as village, then why didn't he vote on Pyro to save him? You say he voted on his suspicion who was...TUO? And the vote looked more like a poke? Like "Hey TUO, what are your thoughts?" That's what I meant in the original post when as I said it was suspicious that he left the vote on TUO at EoD. Elims actually have a reason to not self-press if they know a teammate is going to save them, as they get village cred. 

I've definitely done the not-self-pres thing as a villager before, and in the first couple of cycles even. I know it's not necessarily rational or reasonable (most of the time; there are exceptions where it is), but at the same time if you think the other person is also village then voting on them feels kinda pointless. Also, sometimes you just figure you'll die next cycle anyway, even if you survive this cycle, because the suspicion on you will linger. (and anyway, why would doing it get village cred if villagers never do it?)

Besides that, I can't see Ash/Araris being e/e and I'm pretty sure that Araris is elim at this point : P 

[Quivil]

5 hours ago, Elandera said:

 

@Tani: I'm suspicious. It might just be my general dislike of claiming important roles, but I really don't like how open they are about claiming Mistborn of all things after a single errant kill. This could easily be a villager thing, but it almost seemed they were worried that because several people knew about the kill, if they didn't claim, the'd be discovered anyways and exe'd for suspicion of being elim. I absolutely don't think we can trust Tani to be village just because she seemed a little guilty about killing a villager. However, I'm not quite willing yet to exe her just because of what I consider a bad claim. I wouldn't argue with some scans and such.

I partly claimed bc Quinn said there was an elim in our group so elim already knew my role.

I partly claimed bc I wanted to help everybody and I didn't want to be pocketed and I had a suspicion I was being pocketed

And I partly claimed for the storybit. That was fun.

 

Edit: Vote count please?

Edited March 6, 2021 by Tani
To avoid double-posting (ps the doublepost is hidden)

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Just now, Tani said:

I partly claimed bc Quinn said there was an elim in our group so elim already knew my role.

I partly claimed bc I wanted to help everybody and I didn't want to be pocketed and I had a suspicion I was being pocketed

And I partly claimed for the storybit. That was fun.

Quinn told you there was an elim (me I’m assuming) and you just believed her? And you’re worried that I’m pocketing you? 

On a different note, I’ll come back to the mountains that were posted this morning a bit later, but Quinn, obviously you can make assumptions and you kinda have to in this game. But saying things like “elims never do ____”  or “elims will ____” in a group like this is a faulty assumption already. There’s no single way elims will act in a given scenario because each plays a different way and knowing that the assumption will be there allows them to change what they will do. I have definitely seen elims almost entirely join a train on a villager with maybe only one member of the team not joining. I’ve seen elims spread out, I’ve seen about every voting pattern there could be. I don’t think there’s a way to predict it and in stating that there is, you give the elims free rein to do the opposite and not be suspected. 

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

Wait what? Isn't pewter use passive? I thought it was removed from RNG consideration for Mistborn? @Kasimir

Pewter use is passive, yes. And it's not really removed, just weighted against. Assuming a Mistborn has drawn Pewter previously, without running through all eight metals, if RNGesus gives me Pewter subsequently, I will reroll once. If they keep getting Pewter, I scold the dice and ask Wyrm to perform an exorcism because asking Wilson for help gets me repeat Steel rolls just shrug and assume Lady Fortuna has demanded it.

This clarification should be taken neither as confirmation that Tani's Mistborn claim is accurate, nor that the claim that a Mistborn drew Pewter C1 is true, nor as confirmation that I even gave you one or more Mistborn to begin with. This should cover all bases.

[Quivil]

Just now, Mailliw73 said:

Quinn told you there was an elim (me I’m assuming) and you just believed her? And you’re worried that I’m pocketing you? 

Hey, you agreed.

 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

3 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

villagers don't keep their poke-votes on someone else for the entire cycle

My vote wasn't a poke vote. It was a Stab(TM) Vote, intended to carry with it the extreme threat of lethality. And while normally I don't keep my first vote for the whole cycle, if in every game every player eventually changes their first vote, then what was the point of making that vote in the first place? Yeah, people might claim to be reacting to it, but if there wasn't any actual pressure, then the reaction could just as easily be fake (I often ignore C1 votes on myself for this reason). I did come back later in the cycle to mention that I had considered moving my vote, but felt it was in a good spot, since other people had joined me. Why change my vote when it's gaining momentum and the original reasoning is still valid?

I guess anther thing here is that I don't think you can make sweeping statements like this regardless. If "villagers don't do X thing" is true, and elims are trying to imitate villagers, then it follows that "elims also won't do X thing" is likely true as well. I would instead say something along the lines of "elims have less motivation to reconsider their positions mid-cycle". 

9 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

I didn't actually end up using that assumption for any of the conclusions I came to, except for my working elim team guess (which is literally only there so that I can claim to have superpowers if I happened to be right).

Okay, thanks for clarifying, since I don't think this really came through in your original post. Although I'm not quite sure how you settle on a suspicion of me without this.

13 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

K, first of all please stop trying to tell me not to be suspicious of active people. I can't help who I'm suspicious of, and I can't help that it's impossible for me to formulate reads on people who don't say anything or don't vote much, and I can't help that the people who will give us the most information upon their deaths are the ones who talk the most.

That's not what I was trying to do here. Rather, your original post that I disliked has like 2 sentences on me, and yet concludes with me in your top 3 list. You've explained your reasoning on me better now (see below, although I don't agree with it), but I originally just read you having me not be e/e with Ash and Reading, and didn't see how that led to the conclusion of me being elim.

16 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Second of all, it's not that you're participating that I find suspicious, it's how. In my general (though somewhat limited) experience, villagers don't keep their poke-votes on someone else for the entire cycle, even after that train picks up, unless they were genuinely inactive (which you weren't). That was what happened with Reading. Also in my general experience, villagers will occasionally stop voting on a train they think isn't going anywhere, but when they do they move to a train that is, or don't immediately vote at all. Moving to someone with no votes on them and then staying there usually just means your vote isn't going to count for anything--which isn't something that villagers generally want, but I've definitely done that as elim and seen it done by other elims.

I appreciate your clarification here. I'd again like to emphasize that I don't do poke votes, and that all of my votes have been part of significant trains. When I've placed my vote on or moved it to a player, it has been early enough in the cycle that regardless of the current state of things, there is enough time for other players to join me if they agree with my position. I'm generally in favor of spreading votes a bit earlier in a cycle to increase the chances of putting pressure on an elim. Later on is when you move, if necessary, to consolidate things.

I'm pretty sure we could continue to argue on the effectiveness of your methodology, but suffice it to say that I have reservations about it that you will not be able to dispel because I have seen too many games in which the elims deliberately act in a certain way because of common village assumptions.

[Stick. she/her]

11 minutes ago, Tani said:

Edit: Vote count please?

I would provide you with one but I don't trust my vote counts anymore  

[Ashbringer he/him]

3 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

Also, Ash, why in the world would we four be an elim team?? That makes no sense. 

3 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

There’s no way all four of us are elims  That would be wild

3 hours ago, Tani said:

Now there are three factions!

Spiked, Village, and Elim!Village

Hmm... so all three of you deny it... Quinn, care to make it unanimous? I'd love to force the entire Elim to agree in thread 

But seriously, I do not think you all are Elims. There's a decent chance one is, but as to who I'd have to look. I'm free tomorrow so I'll try to megapost. But I'm more logging my complaint that... it's risky. Better than ye olde "PM reasons", as as Mailliw pointed out there were posted reasons. It just feels... a lot like what goes on in a doc for who to kill. Shady.

I wrote half of this last night, so I'm gonna finish Derrick then get back to you all...

 

Spoiler

2 hours ago, Gears said:

Roko the Basilisk hated not knowing things. It was an entity of logic, of reason. How could it possibly act without knowledge? And yet, it was often excluded when groups gathered in shadowed corners, left out of knowing. So it buries itself in the mystery of the madness etched into stone and the mask that became the reality of 'Derrick' who once was [and still is?] Faleast and AraRaash. It stares at the scrawlings on the wall, letting its flesh scream in agony that it doesn't feel as it ignores the pain of existence. It just wants to know. It needs to know. That's all it wants.

The gamble, the game, the ploy. The orb of metal it had given Derrick. The one made of metals from beyond this time, this era. The one adorned with bloody intentions. It knew that. It knew what that would do. It had knowledge. It had everything it needed. It had enough knowledge to solve the small mysteries, the one that others wouldn't care to solve. It could do these small things and let the others take the reins on the large issues.

But of course, it wasn't satisfied with that. It would never be happy to stand by and do nothing as others acted without at least telling it why. It had its vices, its needs, and those had to be fulfilled. But for now, the writing on the walls was enough. For now, 'Derrick' was enough. But that wouldn't keep it busy forever, and soon, it would have to get involve. Its need to know would not allow anything else.

Derrick knew none of this, of course. He wasn't allowed to use the... the... what was the word. No, he wasn't supposed to use that word either.

What did Derrick know? Derrick knew who he was. Why he was. He even knew where he was, although that one was a bit fuzzier than most people expected. How he was... well, that was the problem, wasn't it. Or was it the solution? Perhaps it had been both. That's what the voice had said. When he was... that one was tricky. There were koloss about. Did that mean the Lord Ruler had died? The world hadn't ended yet, that was obvious enough. That gave him... blast. Two years? He'd been here about four months. Derrick had been here a bit longer, but that was the old Derrick. The one before the... accident, that had left him with a fairly severe brain injury and a healthy insurance payment.

They were far enough away from Luthadel that Derrick decided they must be before the release. That made the most sense, all things considered. Derrick didn't think it would make too much of a difference whether he was right, though. They weren't going to die to the Ascension - either one - anytime soon. And if the mists came earlier... well, most people here were nobles. At least in blood. That's what matters, doesn't it? Blood. Who cares about intellect, strength, senses, emotions. Blood is blood, and Derrick considered himself a good judge of blood. Derrick found that blood had two types. 

Most people did. Noble or skaa. Darkeyes or lighteyes. Fresh or dry. Red or silver. Positive or Negative. A or B... or O?

Derrick usually saw blood as "internal" or "external". He was good at judging which was which, and was also good at correcting any incorrect placement. It was more easy for some that others. He still hadn't made Philico bleed yet, he thought. Hadn't had a reason to for a long while. Almost on the Southern Wind... but then circumstances had gotten out of hand. Besides, they had been pirates together. He could hardly kill a fellow! But there hadn't been much blood around that was misplaced. All was in its proper place.

What was it with Derrick today? He hadn't any need to spill blood here. Not yet. He didn't plan on it, but planning for Derrick was difficult.

How long had it even been? What time was it? What had he been talking about?

Who. Check. Where. Check. When. Within acceptable levels. What. Irrelevant.

Why?

Derrick pulled out - in a way - the orb Roko had given him. It wasn't atium; he would recognize that. It also wasn't the other metal... lerasium? He was fairly certain he'd seen that somewhere before. But where he couldn't say... and either way, this thing was different. Its weight felt different, as if it was unbalanced. A... mechanism? But one unlike anything he'd ever seen. Certainly nothing from Scadrial, from this time period. Or even time line. But how to turn it on? Did Derrick even want to?

Yes. He couldn't trust Roko, but the Basilisk had his own objectives outside of this town. And if they proved troublesome... well, he had countermeasures.

Of course, he had no idea what to do with the thing. He rolled it around; it looked uniform enough. Perhaps an Allomantic trigger... no, Roko wasn't an Allomancer either, Derrick didn't think.

He heard someone talking in the distance. Perhaps it would be good to get with the group a little... start talking. Convince them all he wasn't spiked.

Well, he wasn't Spiked, at least.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

12 minutes ago, Tani said:

Hey, you agreed.

 

If I’m thinking of the same PM you are, then I don’t know if you’re intentionally misrepresenting what Quinn and I said or if it’s unintentional. Quinn said that if Illwei was a villager she’d begin to suspect that there was an elim in the PM group. I agreed and said that she’d be the first one I looked at and she said the opposite. That’s not the same thing as Quinn telling you that I’m an elim, you believing her, and claiming in the thread. 

[Quivil]

Just now, Ashbringer said:

Hmm... so all three of you deny it...

I only said that I know there's at least one villager in that group.

Elim!Village is just what I came up with for a group that's "[acting kinda like an Elim team]" (someone else's words, paraphrased) and that nobody knows what sides everyone in it is on.

[Quintessential she/her]

20 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Quinn told you there was an elim (me I’m assuming) and you just believed her? And you’re worried that I’m pocketing you? 

I never said there definitely was an elim, but I'm worried there might have been (though no, none of the conclusions I made were directly based off of that).

also.

Ah. To you and @Araris Valerian:

Your main objection to my analysis at this point seems to be that I assume certain behaviors to be elim indicative, even though you've seen villagers do those things too, right?

K, cool, I'd like each of you to name one thing that you've elim-read someone off of this game that you've never seen a villager do before. 

See my point?

It's not fair of you to say that my analysis of the votes is invalid because of this--the fact is, everyone reads people off of things that could easily be done by villagers this early in the game. I find that I'm more able to come up with concrete conclusions, and avoid an insane amount of tinfoil and indecision, when I use this kind of analysis rather than just reading people's posts and saying that I think <this thing that they said or did> is village and <this thing that this other person said/did> seems sus, like most other people are doing right now. And, btw, that style of analysis has the exact same problem that you seem to be finding with mine. So I guess my question is, if you don't like what I'm doing right now, what do you suggest I do instead that would minimize those problems?

I was ninja'd a couple times so I'll see what that was in a sec.

Edited March 6, 2021 by Quintessential

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Quinn, it’s mostly just the phrasing for me in absolutes. Elims will do XYZ or won’t do XYZ instead of something like you’ve seen it more often with one team. Idk it’s not that big of a deal I just have a gut reaction against those kinds of phrasing because I’ve specifically used that as an elim to do things that “elims won’t do”. 

[Mat he/him]

The thread seemed to grow exponentially while I was away snowshoeing this morning- fantastic. I’ll catch up later.

@TJ Shade- I preferred Exp over Illwei because I trusted Illwei more, regardless if roles. Knowing Exp was a Rioter didn’t affect that, as I’m assuming the elims have manip of some sort so Exp seemed as likely as any other manipper would be. The role changed nothing about my preferences, it was just about my reads.

[Quivil]

4 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

If I’m thinking of the same PM you are, then I don’t know if you’re intentionally misrepresenting what Quinn and I said or if it’s unintentional. Quinn said that if Illwei was a villager she’d begin to suspect that there was an elim in the PM group. I agreed and said that she’d be the first one I looked at and she said the opposite. That’s not the same thing as Quinn telling you that I’m an elim, you believing her, and claiming in the thread. 

Quinn said there was an elim in our group.

You agreed and said you'd be looking more closely at all of us.