Long Game 73: The Forgotten Coup

[Shard of Reading]

11 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

... somehow I forgot @Shard of Reading was even in this game.

That's not your fault.  I've been way too inactive. But I can't really fix that because my cousins are coming over this weekend. I will be more active after that. I promise.

I don't know what to think of Mist, but this defiantly isn't how they normally play. I don't know what to think of Arais, because it just seems like they are being sussed for their typical elim playstyle. But lynching elims shouldn't make someone suspicious. But how they voted on TUO was definitely weird.

[Kasimir]

LAST NIGHT

Duncan brushed chalk dust from his hands.

Time to become Iron Duncan again, he thought. The terror of the Rithmatic dueling circuit, back at the academy he'd attended. Duncan had never been the most versatile or sharp attacker, but time and time again, his defense had proven to be a hard wall that challengers had broken themselves on. And this time, he'd chosen his position carefully, even as he started to outline his defenses. He had the advantage of time: hours before nightfall, when the Forgotten among them would strike.

Duncan was many things, but in this, he was not a fool. Evan had claimed the gun instead, and Duncan had stocked up on chalk. He felt certain they would come for him. It was the reasonable thing to do. After all, they'd already come for TJ, and for Wei.

He wished Evan a keen eye and a steady aim, even as he continued with the beginnings of the Taylor Defense. His hands were shaking, and Duncan was forced to begin again and again. Concentrate, he told himself. He felt a prickle between his shoulder-blades, as though he was being watched. Just nerves, probably. He badly wanted a drink.

He'd promised Frederick. And that meant he had to stay alive. 

The Taylor Defense. Once, Duncan had been able to produce it swiftly and surely, working under pressure. Now, he scuffed it out and began again and again.

"A circle won't save you, you know," Wyatt said, leaning against the wall. "Defense alone never won a fight, soldier."

Duncan pressed his lips together in a tight line. "I know," he said, tersely. "But someone alive in the right place might." That was why Wyatt had done what he had, and so had Kessen and Tory, Duncan had worked that out later. On those many long nights when the guilt seeped in. They'd used him to silence the more vocal among their squad and the other squads, the ones who might've objected, the ones who might've said something, or stopped the Forgotten.

That was why Matt had died. Why Dig was buried. Why Rlint had been murdered. Why Chase had been executed.

So many names. So many fellow Rithmatists, all fallen on Nebrask. And now he was here once again, and the enemy was still among them.

He began to add chalklings to the bindpoints. 

"You could have saved TJ," Wyatt added, casually. "But you were too busy trying to protect yourself."

"I know," Duncan snapped. He would have to carry that guilt with him, too. More blood on his hands. Maybe one day, Nebrask would claim him too. And as much as Duncan had promised Frederick, he couldn't help but feel it would be what he deserved.

In the end, we all get just what we deserve, he thought, bitterly. Even if they came for him. Even if he held them off for this night.

"Your line is crooked."

Duncan glared at Wyatt, but thankfully, he could still fix it. The Line of Forbiddance went down, straight and clean.

Just like old times. Just like back when he'd thought they were on the same side. That Wyatt was simply a senior soldier, one of those who'd seen enough crap and knew how things worked. He'd learned from the squad. From Wyatt, from Kessen, who was too damned fast for his own good. From Tory, who showed him a few tricks with chalklings.

Duncan had wanted it to be real. But instead, he had been nothing more than their knife.

He would hold out the night. Or he would die trying. He'd promised Frederick, after all.

[OOC: Something came up at work and I'll probably not be present at all from now to rollover. Fair warning. Keep in mind we still have bribes in play, so be careful of votejacking. And please remember your orders + someone please get a Map. I've put mine in already.]

[Ashbringer]

Hmm.

Don’t really want to switch the vote around, but also don’t want to stay on Lotus.

Can we get more votes from... like, everyone?

[Araris Valerian]

We currently have 6 votes out of 12, which I agree isn't great. @Gears, @Lotus, @Burnt Spaghetti, @Random Bystander, @Shard of Reading, @Devotary of Spontaneity, y'all want to vote?

[Gears]

1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

We currently have 6 votes out of 12, which I agree isn't great. @Gears, @Lotus, @Burnt Spaghetti, @Random Bystander, @Shard of Reading, @Devotary of Spontaneity, y'all want to vote?

I vaguely suspect Reading, and I consider Araris a very slight trust and Mist a complete null, so I might as well hope audentes Fortuna iuvat and the tie breaks in favor of my suspect. Mist has just been RNG-ing, but they did break free of that habit, which I consider a tiny point in their favor. I can't remember what Reading's done, so reasoning boils down to what Kas has said. I know just following isn't a great aesthetic, but I have been remarkably disengaged this cycle [I blame the snow]. If I have time, I might do an iso of Reading, but odds are I won't be available for a while [prospective return in 2 hours, so...] Pax vobiscum.

[Ashbringer]

Eh. Team Read-Village-By-Kas, assemble!

Lotus Shard of Reading

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Reading (4): Kas, Gears, Ash, Devotary
Araris (2): Archer, Mist
Mist (2): Araris, Books

I've had a somewhat village read on Araris. Striker being village decreases that trust because an Araris/Striker/Order team makes less sense than v!Striker + e/e Araris/Order. If they were all evil Araris probably would have bussed Order over Striker. There's no reason v!Araris couldn't have voted for Striker over Order though. Araris passing the lantern to Kas seems a village thing to do since even if elim!Araris planned to kill Kas, that leaves a lantern in the supply for a villager to potentially take instead of in elim hands. If Araris was evil it's also more likely that he would have been more afraid of being killed by the gun. Archer definitely wasn't roleblocked and a LoF+passing the lantern to Kas puts a strain on the elim action economy. It's possible the elims just didn't submit a kill but if Araris was evil I don't think they would have prioritised giving away a lantern.

I remember essentially nothing about Mist. She was right about Ventyl and Striker D5. Was suspicious of Araris, but did not vote for him over Striker even when the vote was only 4-2. Is voting for Araris this cycle. If they were e/e then voting for each other doesn't seem like it would be a good strategy, especially if they're the only elims left. Vague, largely unaccountable action claims. Didn't want to pick between Gears and Striker back D4. Random voting, but she decided that before the game so NAI. Still has a bribe so far as I know. Doesn't really have connections to anyone else so isn't a priority exe target. Reexamine a cycle or two from now.

Reading and Lotus are somewhat connected by the D3 vote. I don't think they're e/e, since elim Reading could have gone after anyone else since Lotus only had one vote at the time and there weren't too many votes on Connie at the time. One vote is better than none, so it would make sense for an elim Reading to vote village Lotus to save Connie. Reading doesn't think this is how Mist normally plays. I don't think there's that much of a difference but I don't have time to look now. Voted Ventyl D5, Order D4, with a very confident village read on Striker/gears that he backed down on a little when questioned. Didn't want to connect Connie and Archer, which is a bit positive given they are different alignments.

Lotus supports Araris, despite being suspicious of everyone. Is largely unwilling to use items but did dump a bucket of acid D4. Supposedly supported the Connie exe but didn't actually vote for her. Voted for me D4 almost a day before rollover and didn't come back to say anything that turn. I largely ignored her vote but did say something in between the vote and cycle ending. Voted for Archer as a claimed NR instead of Mat or Illwei D2, though Archer wasn't really in danger at that point. General feeling of lack of commitment to votes.

This took way too long and now the cycle is almost over. I'll vote Reading over Araris or Mist this cycle.

[Kasimir]

25 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Eh. Team Read-Village-By-Kas, assemble!

Lotus Shard of Reading

[OOC: I DID NOT WAKEUP AT 6 AFTER 2.5 HOURS OF SLEEP AND TALN-MODING AT WORK FOR 2 PEOPLE TO COME BACK TO THIS 

PEOPLE FOLLOWING ME MAKES ME NERVOUS AAAAAAAAAAA

Edit: I'm referring to read Village by Kas please don't last minute vote or I will really lose the last of my sanity] 

Edited February 15, 2021 by Kasimir

[Sart]

That's time.

[Sart]

The camp was at a loss. Duncan, the most senior among them, suggested the quiet man reading as a suspect. Although other options were presented, the camp trusted Duncan, and decided to follow his lead. Unfortunately, his intuition proved incorrect. The suspect was innocent, although he was hoarding Chalk. One was colored very vibrantly, as if it was warding off the darkness. Could this help the camp fend off the growing Chalkling threat? Only time would tell.

Vote Count:
Shard of Reading (4): Gears, Ashbringer, Devotary of Spontaneity, Kasimir
Mist (2): Flyingbooks, Araris Valerian
Araris Valerian (2): Archer, Mist

Shard of Reading was court-marshaled. They were a Rithmatist.

Items Taken:

Spoiler

• Gears took a Piece of Chalk
• Burnt Spaghetti took a Piece of Chalk
• Devotary of Spontaneity took a Piece of Chalk
• Kasimir took a Piece of Chalk
• Ashbringer took a Map
• Archer took a Map
• Araris Valerian took a Map
• Mist took a Map

Camp Supply:

Spoiler

• 5 Pieces of Chalk
• 4 Buckets of Acid
• 2 Bribes
• 10 Spring-Powered Crabs
• 1 Lantern
• 1 Piece of Rainbow Chalk
• 1 Book of Warding

Player List:

  Hide contents

1. @Gears : Servant of the Mad God
2. Quinn0928 : Nicole Cooper Rithmatist
3. @Ashbringer : Faleast
4. @Lotus : Daughter of the Prime forest
5. @Flyingbooks
6. @Archer : Evan Wallace
7. @Burnt Spaghetti : Tia Vuur
8. Ventyl : Shimamura Sakura Rithmatist
9. The Unknown Order : Atreco Tel Forgotten
10. @Araris Valerian : Elysian
11. StrikerEZ : Frederick Kerr Rithmatist
12. Alvron : Blackbane Rithmatist
13. Shard of Reading Rithmatist
14. @Random Bystander
15. Illwei Rithmatist
16. TJ Shade Rithmatist
17. Condensation : Connie Forgotten
18. @Devotary of Spontaneity : Kaniae Moreau
19. @Kasimir : Duncan Kerr
20. Matrim's Dice: Joshua Rithmatist
21. STINK : Respected Madman Thief
22. @Mist : Tria Noche
23. Dannex Rithmatist

This Night will end on February 15th at 8 PM CST. The Strength of the Wild Chalklings is at 3.

[+Lotus]

Ugghhhhhh I was so focused on doing some stuff that I forgot to submit a action AGAIN

Maybe next time I should submit it like, as soon as the cycle opens.

Actually hang on yeah thats what I'm going to do.

[Ashbringer]

... Taln-Moding?

Also, glad to see we have our priorities in order 

Sorry Reading... I feel confident in saying there was no vote manip though. 

[Kasimir]

13 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

... Taln-Moding?

 

[OOC: 

Quote

The burdens of nine become mine. Why must I carry the madness of them all? Oh, Almighty, release me. 

Or what happens when your colleagues do not do work for three days and you have to cover for all of them :/ 

I'm most confident of my high-tier Village reads at the moment, so if I am to do re-evaluation, I'd look at everything below, I suppose.

Edited to add: Question for everyone. Would you want the clock to be used tonight or not? As I said, I'm in contact with the third party and they can also read the thread  If we have another mislynch tomorrow, we're going to be dealing with 4-strength WCs which isn't great. On the other hand, I don't know if people want to be freed up for actions tonight. Something to be said for that.]

Edited February 15, 2021 by Kasimir

[Ashbringer]

... okay that makes much more sense than my initial impression 

[+Lotus]

47 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Would you want the clock to be used tonight or not?

When does the clock take effect again then? Is it the turn it’s used or the turn after or idk I can’t remember 

[Araris Valerian]

The clock might be worth using, if only because the elims probably have a good idea of which villagers still have chalk, so they could make a more informed roleblock. With 4 maps, we should be able to grab enough chalk the next few cycles to keep up with the Horde and not be too obvious about who is doing a LoW.

[Kasimir]

[OOC: I have let the clock bearer know, and they promised to check their PMs before rollover so this should be fine. Villagers, you may want to go wild with the scanning tonight. The clock will be used.

Edited to add: I am, unfortunately, going to be doing what I must, which may or may not involve a Line of Forbiddance, as I've been hoarding chalk  ]

Edited February 15, 2021 by Kasimir

[Gears]

Alas, the great Kasimir has led us astray! A note about Mist: They have been doing nothing to make the village trust them, which makes me think that they are TWTBAW. People I have noted as somewhat suspicious: Random Bystander, Lotus [gut]. Vague trusts: Kas, Araris. Last-second voters: Myself, Ash, Devotary. I think the reasoning from all of these were sufficient, though I will note them all.

PSA: Someone with nothing better to do and Chalk to spare may want to drop a LoW in case the elims have the Shadowblaze. We just need 1 Line, so only do it if you genuinely have absolutely nothing beneficial to do otherwise. 

[Araris Valerian]

2 hours ago, Gears said:

PSA: Someone with nothing better to do and Chalk to spare may want to drop a LoW in case the elims have the Shadowblaze. We just need 1 Line, so only do it if you genuinely have absolutely nothing beneficial to do otherwise. 

That is a good point that I totally didn’t think of.

[Archer]

Apologies for not being on over the weekend. I don’t want to panic anyone, but after tonight, it could be 7 villagers:3 elims. With a mis-exe the next day, it’s 6:3. After the night, it could be 5:3. Plus a conversion, that’s 4:4. Luckily, they don’t win at parity, but at equal strength, the village is doomed. So if you’re saving anything for the endgame, I encourage you to consider using it soon. I believe the original elim team was only four, because with the thief and possibility of conversion, I think Sart would have rounded down, but we should not discount the possibility that we’re three rounds from what is essentially the end. (Assuming no guns, no blocked kills etc)

Interesting that the rainbow chalk is not distinguished in the Supply. Reading had told me they started with it. Has anyone picked up a piece of chalk from the Supply and had it turn out to be rainbow?

My gut is saying Random Bystander would have been told by their team that they can switch actions, but it’s not conclusive.

Kas mentioned not thinking that Lotus was evil based on their vote on Reading when another elim was up for exe. Reading’s village flip disproves that theory. On Day Three, only they, Araris, and now dead people voted for other candidates than Elim!Connie. The first flip is the one elims try to prevent the most, after that if the info trail leads to someone, they are wary of losing in one fell swoop. Another time, D2, I also found it odd when Lotus voted on me post claim. Araris called it a village slip. I’d usually believe that, except that the votes suggest their teammates, so now it looks elimy.

The Araris conundrum really is that they’ve been acting like a villager in everything except their votes. They’ve poured acid, been accountable, the whole bit. However, I’m going to stick to this wagon because those votes sure look sus. I might believe one of Lotus or Araris could be switched out for Devo, but we should assume the D3 plan was to protect, not bus, and hit those two first. If we’d had no elim flips, I’d support going after people with hard to read playstyles (RNGing, late voting etc) but we have data, so I think we should go off that first.

At this point, I am certain D3 was an unplanned exe for the elims and will continue harping on that so people don’t over-think their way out of the obvious exes.

Reading was on my elim team guess. That was incorrect, unfortunately. I think Kas asked about Lotus, and my thoughts there were Araris defended them once when they voted on me, saying it was a village slip. Now that we know Reading is village, it makes sense that they voted on them instead of Araris. Lotus did drop some acid at an opportune time, and had the chance to say they hadn’t and make us waste some chalk, but I think when they poured it, they didn’t realize it would be the only one needed, and when they did, they used the opportunity to get village points, which was more valuable than possibly wasting resources.

I’ve picked an education target and told Kas who it is. If they don’t reveal the name, they’re my elim buddy and you may exe us both. But secrecy is the best way I think of avoiding the target being NKed or blocked from receiving it to frame me. I know Kas will survive the night, so even if the person is targeted, Kas can back me up here. If anyone objects to this plan, I can say the name right before rollover or something. 

I’ll probably vote Lotus tomorrow because there’s more support for that than Araris.

[Ashbringer]

Here we go...

[Sart]

The night is over.

[Sart]

Faleast was puzzled by this place. He had come seeking power, but there were clear gaps of understanding among the populace. For starters, why was there this temple in the middle of Nebrask? He had found no such record of such a place, and yet there were several maps guiding them there. Why? He resolved to explore this sanctum further. Down into the depths, he found plenty of chalk, but still no answers. He was trying to examine a curious mural, when someone sprang up behind him. He swore, but was not fast enough. The keepers of this universe were dissatisfied, and he would be their next victim.

Ashbringer was killed. He was a Rithmatist.

Item Supply:

Spoiler

• 10 Pieces of Chalk
• 10 Buckets of Acid
• 8 Bribes
• 18 Spring-Powered Crabs
• 1 Map
• 1 Lantern
• 5 Pieces of Rainbow Chalk
• 1 Gun
• 1 Book of Vigor
• 2 Books of Silencing

Player List:

  Hide contents

1. @Gears : Servant of the Mad God
2. Quinn0928 : Nicole Cooper Rithmatist
3. Ashbringer : Faleast Rithmatist
4. @Lotus : Daughter of the Prime forest
5. @Flyingbooks
6. @Archer : Evan Wallace
7. @Burnt Spaghetti : Tia Vuur
8. Ventyl : Shimamura Sakura Rithmatist
9. The Unknown Order : Atreco Tel Forgotten
10. @Araris Valerian : Elysian
11. StrikerEZ : Frederick Kerr Rithmatist
12. Alvron : Blackbane Rithmatist
13. Shard of Reading Rithmatist
14. @Random Bystander
15. Illwei Rithmatist
16. TJ Shade Rithmatist
17. Condensation : Connie Forgotten
18. @Devotary of Spontaneity : Kaniae Moreau
19. @Kasimir : Duncan Kerr
20. Matrim's Dice: Joshua Rithmatist
21. STINK : Respected Madman Thief
22. @Mist : Tria Noche
23. Dannex Rithmatist

This Day will end on February 17th at 8 PM CST.

[Mist]

Yes, Sart, we need more

That's a lot of crabs. That's a lot of everything.

[Archer]

There's no Ashbringer here to say it, so it's up to me to say that there sure looks like there was some vote manipulation to make the crab count so high.

The elims seem like an honorable lot to me. I'd be willing to forgo an exe here if they pass on the NK and instead have everyone grab a crab today and tonight. Then we'll all have a great load of crabs to take home as souvenirs. Afterwards when our friends ask what we've got we'll say well, Alvron, I didn't get the gun, but I've got a pot of six spring powered crabs here I'll trade you for that Honorblade. 

On a less important "on topic" note, rumor has it Ashbringer had the Shadowblaze, so it was either stolen, which would have required someone to know he had it, or its gone now. Flyingbooks received my specialization lesson.