Random Bystander she/her Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Flyingbooks said: You can always cancel your action and decide to do a different one. You can? I didn't know that.
Mist she/her Posted February 13, 2021 Posted February 13, 2021 Yep. Just send in your new action in your GM PM.
Ookla-son-son-Ventyl Posted February 13, 2021 Posted February 13, 2021 3 hours ago, Flyingbooks said: Ventyl says that he's planning to take the Shadowblaze from me. Could somebody roleblock him so that I can give it to somebody who I actually trust? ?
Sart he/him Posted February 13, 2021 Author Posted February 13, 2021 (edited) Sakura was awoken by the sound of a wooden bowl being knocked over, the water inside of it splashing into the walls of her tent. Three years ago, such a thing would have never woken her up, she would have felt safe in the arms of her wife. Now, however, she’d grown more cautious and had learned to sleep with ears open. She stepped barefoot on to the floor of her room, quietly, so she wouldn’t alert whoever was there she’d woken up. Sakura crept toward the flaps of her tent, steeling herself for anything. Instead of the hungry face of a Forgotten, however, she only saw a man. "Oh, it's only you." She paused for a second at the sound of him cocking a rifle. “Ah, so it’s time to pay for my sins.” The man nodded and pulled the trigger. Her vision started to go black and Sakura whispered to no one but herself, I am sorry, my love—my dear Hougetsu—that I will not come home to you. Then, Sakura died. Her last sight was not the face of her wife, but the flash of a gun. The man exited the room, his dirty work completed. It was already starting morning, and this would certainly wake people up. When the men of the camp finally arrived at her tent, they found a letter resting unsealed on the dead woman’s desk. Ventyl was shot and killed. She was a Rithmatist. Camp Supply: Hide contents 6 Pieces of Chalk 4 Buckets of Acid 2 Bribes 10 Spring-Powered Crabs 4 Maps 1 Lantern 1 Book of Warding Player List: Hide contents @Gears : Servant of the Mad God Quinn0928 : Nicole Cooper Rithmatist @Ashbringer : Faleast @Lotus : Daughter of the Prime forest @Flyingbooks @Archer : Evan Wallace @Burnt Spaghetti : Tia Vuur Ventyl : Shimamura Sakura Rithmatist The Unknown Order : Atreco Tel Forgotten @Araris Valerian : Elysian StrikerEZ : Frederick Kerr Rithmatist Alvron : Blackbane Rithmatist @Shard of Reading @Random Bystander Illwei Rithmatist TJ Shade Rithmatist Condensation : Connie Forgotten @Devotary of Spontaneity : Kaniae Moreau @Kasimir : Duncan Kerr Matrim's Dice: Joshua Rithmatist STINK : Respected Madman Thief @Mist : Tria Noche Dannex Rithmatist This Day will end on February 14th, at 8 PM CST. Edited February 13, 2021 by Sart Minor RP change 7
Flyingbooks Posted February 13, 2021 Posted February 13, 2021 I was going to give the Shadowblaze away but it seems to have been stolen from me.
Ashbringer he/him Posted February 13, 2021 Posted February 13, 2021 Does "shot and killed" mean shot by the Gun? Did anyone roleblock anyone besides Ventyl?
Araris Valerian he/him Posted February 13, 2021 Posted February 13, 2021 Camp defense was 5 during the night.
Archer he/him Posted February 13, 2021 Posted February 13, 2021 (edited) Evan had a gun. People listened when you had a gun. Perhaps that was why no one had questioned his decision yet. They were all too afraid that they would be next. The boy was walking in circles now. His feet kept taking him back to the one place he didn't want to go - back to her tent. He pulled back the flap and looked inside. Nothing had changed. "Why is she still here? Hello? Guys? We have a person for this right? We don't, we don't just leave the bodies." He was shouting now. "Where's our grave digger? Anyone? Guys?" Eventually, someone gave him a shovel. He dug the pit inside of her tent, embarrassed to let anyone see what he was doing. When it was deep enough, he pushed the body in. He thought of finding flowers, but between the acid and the chalk, nothing beautiful grew here anymore. Instead, he added a few of Sakura's personal items. They had a nice watch he laid on their chest. And there was a letter on their desk... "Huh." Evan flipped it over, curious, despite himself. He looked at it for a while, not opening it, just turning it over and over in his hands. "You had someone worth writing to." He reached into his breast pocket and pulled out his photo of his father. After a moment's hesitation, he then slid it into the envelope and pocketed the whole package as he tiptoed out of the tent. Now he had two people to find. *** I was not passed the Shadowblaze last night. That is of course what evil me would say. I propose that no one trust me with anything important for now and we wait until tonight when I can prove my alignment by teaching someone a specialization. With three teammates and the occasional ‘woops, the person I taught was NKed! Oh noes,’ I’m fairly sure I could string the group along past exe-lo, so we need to devise a way of choosing my target that’s somewhat random or teaches who everyone agrees is for sure village. This seems like a good thing to discuss tomorrow night, so feel free to think on that so I can be genuinely cleared. Kas told me they were self-protecting tonight, so my guess is they were the target and the NK failed. Good work, Kas! Unfortunately, I chose a bad person to shoot. I am suspicious of Araris. However, I felt that we could successfully exe them today (which is unblockable), so the gun would be better used to target someone in that pool of 'kinda suspicious but they might be able to CW their way out of it' people. Ventyl fit the bill. Unfortunately, we now only have Flyingbooks to tell us what that conversation was about where they discussed stealing the Shadowblaze? And why’d you take it anyway in the first place? I’m giving village points to Burnt and Random for defending on what had to be a stressful night for the elims. Who else was in on that? I'll give you village points if you come forward. (We're getting to the point where we can tell who submitted NKs by process of elimination, so bear that in mind if you do something provable.) Time for whatever this is: (tunneling on Araris) Spoiler Vote Count: Dannex (6): Ashbringer, Burnt Spaghetti, Illwei, Matrim's Dice, Quinn0928, Ventyl Matrim's Dice (4): FlyingBooks, StrikerEZ, TJ Shade, Devotary of Spontaneity Gears (3): Araris Valerian, Kasimir, STINK Illwei (1): Archer Random Bystander (1): Mist Theory: The elims would not have started a CW. Therefore Ashbringer and Burnt are clear. Running sus list is therefore: Gears, Kas, Lotus, Flyingbooks, Araris, Reading, Random, Devo, and Mist. Day Two: Pre-Non-Reveal: Illwei (4): Ashbringer, Striker, Archer, Ventyl Archer (6): Matrim, Random Bystander, Kas, TJ, Araris, STINK, Quinn Flyingbooks (1): Mist Theory: the elims don't care who is exed here. NAI Vote Count Final: Matrim's Dice (6): Quinn0928, Flyingbooks, Araris Valerian, TJ Shade, Devotary of Spontaneity, Kasimir Illwei (6): Ashbringer, Ventyl, StrikerEZ, Random Bystander, Condensation, Matrim's Dice Archer (2): Lotus, STINK Flyingbooks (1): Mist Ventyl (1): Alvron Ventyl cancelled a vote on Matrim. TJ bribed mine to Mat. Illwei cancelled my vote. Lotus voted on me post-claim. Theory: this was an engineered tie with no elim up for exe. NAI Day Three: Vote Count: Condensation (6): Kasimir, TJ Shade, Illwei, Archer, Devotary of Spontaneity, StrikerEZ (correct order) Gears (2): Araris Valerian, STINK Illwei (1): Ventyl Lotus (1): Shard of Reading Theory: The elims want to protect their teammate. Kas is cleared for starting Connie wagon. Araris and Reading look bad for voting elsewhere. Devo is technically in bus position, but they could have made it 3/4/1/1, so at the very least it implies they aren't e/e with Reading because if they were, they'd have tied it. And not e/e with a non-voter, like Lotus. Running sus list is therefore: Gears, Lotus, Flyingbooks, Araris+, Reading+, Random, Devo-, and Mist. Day Four: Vote Count: The Unknown Order (8): Kasimir, TJ Shade, Ashbringer, VENTYL PUT ONE HERE, LATER PULLED, Araris Valerian, Gears, Shard of Reading, Flyingbooks, Devotary of Spontaneity (order is correct) Gears (3): Mist, The Unknown Order, StrikerEZ Devotary of Spontaneity (1): Lotus Ventyl (1): Archer StrikerEZ (1): Ventyl Theory: Gears was the CW, therefore they are village. When Araris voted, there were 4 villagers on TUO, so I can see them deciding to bus at that point. TJ even made a GIF about it because it was so sus. If they bussed, I believe it was an intentional decision, because otherwise they'd have supported TUO on the Gears CW. If it was planned, and they're e/e with Reading, that explains why Reading is also on the wagon, albeit later. Running sus list is therefore: Lotus, Flyingbooks, Araris+, Reading+, Random, Devo-, and Mist. Day Five: StrikerEZ (7): Gears, Ashbringer, Lotus, Burnt Spaghetti, Araris Valerian, Devotary of Spontaneity, Kasimir Araris Valerian (2): Flyingbooks, StrikerEZ Flyingbooks (1): Archer Ventyl (1): Shard of Reading The choice wasn't super defined, but it was kinda between Araris and Striker. Lotus therefore voted to protect Araris. I don't think anyone else on that list could be an elim. However, that's predicated on Araris being an elim, otherwise this was a NAI vote. Running sus list is therefore: Flyingbooks, Lotus+, Araris+, Reading+, Random, Devo-, and Mist. TL;DR I think the elim team is Araris, Lotus, and Reading. Lotus and Reading being on the team is predicated on Araris being on it. I think Araris is an elim because they have consistently voted for villagers except for when they voted for TUO, which was late enough that it could have been a bus. If Araris isn't an elim, I suggest looking at Flyingbooks, Mist, Random, and as a last resort, Devo. Just so it's out there, I gave Araris Line of Making specialization on D2 or something. Edit: Yeah, it was D2 Edited February 13, 2021 by Archer 3
Random Bystander she/her Posted February 13, 2021 Posted February 13, 2021 Grace felt numb. Only half of them were left, and she was freaking out. She walked through the camp, glaring at everyone. She would get home, or she would go out fighting. She walked to her tent, and went to her desk. She stared at her stationary for a moment, before sighing and starting to write. After a few minutes, she was finished. She addressed the letter she had written, and put it on her desk. With luck, it would never have to be sent... 3
Kasimir he/him Posted February 13, 2021 Posted February 13, 2021 (edited) [OOC: Here's some analysis of the Defense situation. We know that the Shadowblaze last Night will have been calculated on whether or not Books is a Rithmatist or a Forgotten. If Books is a Rithmatist, then our expected Defense is +1. If Books is a Forgotten, then our expected Defense is -1. So let's take a look at the basic claims on Defense that I have. I have anonymised the names except for Araris, since nothing much hinges on Araris so that it's unclear which of the two is our Specialist, as I think having the facts is important for analysis in this situation. Araris Bucket of Acid Day 5 +1 Andromeda Line of Warding+ Night 5 +2 Betelgeuse Line of Warding Night 5 +1 [Note that I annotate all specialisations as +.] Our expected Defense, at this point, assuming everyone else has been truthful, is 4. However, we have ended up with 5. @Burnt Spaghetti, could you confirm this, please? I am inclined to think everyone is truthful, because things get more complicated if they aren't, requiring potentially one or more Evil players to be also Warding and to have Warding+. I lied last Night when mentioning three Lines of Warding. (In retrospect, I should have just said two claims as it'd help us catch Evil out, depending. Oh well. Live and learn... Not my first d'oh moment this game....I'm sorry TJ ) Andromeda has claimed Warding+ to me. This is significant, because of the implications if Andromeda is lying. But more on that later. Here are the broad cases, before I begin to look at complications: [CASE #1] Books is a Rithmatist This, in my view, is the most straightforward scenario. Books is a Rithmatist, and so their holding the Shadowblaze has given us +1 to Defense. The implications are as follows: one of our Evil team likely went to use the Night Kill, presumably on me. I protected myself so it didn't get through. (Sorry guys, I promised Frederick I can't lie down and just die like that ) Another of our Evil team might have used a Removal+ Line (more on this later) to target Books - alternatively, a Villager did, because they distrusted Books. Possibly Ventyl, before Ventyl died, still holding the Shadowblaze. We don't know. I'll speculate more on this later. [CASE #2] Books is a Forgotten Here's where it gets complicated. If Books is a Forgotten, then we have an expected Defense of 3. For us to hit 5, we need 2 Lines of Warding to be added. But that gives us a problem: suppose there are three Forgotten left. (There may not be so many, this is simply a supposition - if there were two Forgotten, then one of them must have Warding+, and the other put in the kill, likely on me. This scenario entails that a Villager stole the Shadowblaze, or that Books is lying about it, or even gave it to Archer.) I think we can safely assume that one of our Forgotten put in a kill. If so, then the two other Forgotten would need to draw Lines of Warding to keep our Defense at the expected value - unless they have Warding+. This cannot be ruled out. If they do have Warding+, then just one Forgotten needs to draw the Lines, with the last free to do whatever they want. (One variant is where Books shoves the Shadowblaze to Archer, and another Forgotten draws the Lines, and yet another Forgotten makes the kill. This scenario also requires someone with Warding+ on the Evil team. Specifically, this is on top of the Warding+ Andromeda did.) Thoughts: Here I should note I don't think Andromeda is lying - if Andromeda is lying about doing a Line of Warding and Books is Forgotten, then the Forgotten need to add 4 Defense to the camp, in order for us to have numbers that match with what we're seeing. This almost necessarily entails they have two Warding specialists, or they wouldn't have enough actions. But then there's no reason for Andromeda to lie, really, in that scenario, since they're re-adding Defense anyway. If Books is a Rithmatist, and Andromeda is lying, then this might have been to try to cause alarm or frame Books for a misgrinch with one Defense than would be expected. I can't see what else Andromeda would have to gain from lying about Warding simpliciter, since this would entail Andromeda would need one to two other teammates to Ward (depending on if they had Warding+) and to also put in the kill, and potentially, steal from Books. If so, then clearly we have a rogue Warder who hasn't yet claimed, or Betelgeuse has Warding+. If you have Warded or Defended last night, please claim in thread or PM me. It would be good to sort this out. So I did a table of my thoughts, but it boils down to - whole lot of nothing, not much info, but if you want, you can check it out because I think I wargamed most of the possibilities but there's a bit too many for coherence. Spoiler Conditions Assumed Expected Defense Implications Assessment If Books is a Rithmatist 5 Either a Forgotten or a Villager stole from Books. Another Forgotten put in a kill. Another Forgotten probably claimed an item. MODERATELY POSSIBLE If Books is a Forgotten 4 Books may have passed the Shadowblaze to Archer and lied about it. A Villager may also have stolen from Books. Another Forgotten put in a kill. Another Forgotten probably Warded, to give us the Defense of 4. MODERATELY POSSIBLE If Books is a Rithmatist and Araris, Andromeda, and Betelgeuse all lied 1 Evil had to produce 4 Defense and also make a NK. Villager stole from Books, or Books lied. Not enough actions in a 3-person Evil team to collect Shadowblaze from Books. Only situation where Evil could produce 4 Defense and make a NK is if they had two Warding+, neither of which is Andromeda. But in this scenario, Araris, Andromeda, and Betelguese would have to all be Evil or roleblocked. Absurd in terms of motivations and action economy. HIGHLY UNLIKELY If Books is a Rithmatist, and Araris or Betelgeuse lied 4 Araris or Betelgeuse is likely Evil. Little expected gain for this, apart from mild trust for Araris/Betelgeuse, as a teammate would have had to Ward anyway to make the numbers match up. Possible that this was to implicate Books as a Forgotten. Requires that another player (currently unknown) Warded. If this is you, please let us know. 3-person Forgotten team can afford to send one person to snatch Shadowblaze from Books, one to kill, one to Ward. 2-person Forgotten team will struggle with actions economy: this scenario assumes they Warded, in which case they either failed to kill (unlikely) or a Villager must have stolen the Shadowblaze from Books. HIGHLY TO MODERATELY UNLIKELY If Books is a Rithmatist and Andromeda lied 3 Andromeda is likely Evil. Little expected gain from this, apart from mild trust for Andromeda, as a teammate with Warding+ or two teammates would have had to Ward anyway to make the numbers match up. Possible that Andromeda lied about having Warding+ - if so, possible that this was to implicate Books as a Forgotten. Requires that another player (currently unknown) Warded. If this is you, please let us know. If Andromeda has Warding+ and didn’t Ward at all, 3-person Forgotten team can afford to send one person to snatch Shadowblaze from Books, one to kill, one to Ward. But little expected gain since that would require a second Evil player with Warding+. 2-person Forgotten team will struggle with actions economy, so this wouldn’t work out. HIGHLY TO MODERATELY UNLIKELY If Books is a Rithmatist and Andromeda lied, and one of Araris/Betelgeuse lied 2 Andromeda and one of Araris/Betelgeuse lied. Likely Evil together. Little expected gain from this – mild trust for the Warding claims, perhaps, but would need to put down three Defense to make the numbers match up. (Two if they are planning to implicate Books as a Forgotten, but this requires yet another player Warding.) Given Andromeda also claimed Warding+, this just seems overly paranoid a scenario. Requires either two Forgotten Warding, or a Warding specialist. HIGHLY TO MODERATELY UNLIKELY If Books is a Forgotten and Araris, Andromeda, and Betelgeuse all lied 0 Forget it. This requires enough people we don’t know about Warded just to give us the right Defense numbers. Nonsense on stilts. EXTREMELY UNLIKELY If Books is a Forgotten and Araris or Betelgeuse lied 2 Likely Araris or Betelgeuse is Evil with Books. Little expected gain – attempted overrun, perhaps, but would be blatant. In this scenario, for us to get the Defense seen, Evil team or unknown players must add 3 Defense. Assuming a 3 person Evil team, ex hypothesi, Evil must have one Warder+ - otherwise, it’s difficult for the numbers to match up on the assumption Books gave Archer the Shadowblaze and a teammate put in a kill. 2-person team seems impossible here. HIGHLY TO MODERATELY UNLIKELY If Books is a Forgotten and Andromeda lied. 2 Likely Andromeda is Evil with Books. Little expected gain – attempted overrun, perhaps, but at cost of distrust. In this scenario, for us to get the Defense seen, Evil team or unknown players must add 3 Defense. Assuming a 3 person Evil team, ex hypothesi, Evil must have one Warder+ - otherwise, it’s difficult for the numbers to match up on the assumption Books gave Archer the Shadowblaze and a teammate put in a kill. But then that requires Evil team to have two Warder+s because of Andromeda. 2-person team seems impossible here. HIGHLY TO MODERATELY UNLIKELY If Books is a Forgotten and Andromeda lied, and one of Araris/Betelgeuse lied 0 Forget it. This requires enough people we don’t know about Warded just to give us the right Defense numbers. Nonsense on stilts. EXTREMELY UNLIKELY Note that my analysis changes if any of the Forgotten put down acid in the day - this would allow them to mess with our expected defenses and still retain the ability to act at Night. I'm going to vote on Reading for the moment. Issue is, if Reading and Lotus are Evil together, why is Reading tying Lotus with Connie D3 @Archer? This risks creating a double Evil train, which wouldn't be good for them. I'll post reads sometime. I need a break. Info Drop: Actions Taken C5 Spoiler Player Day 5 Night 5 Gears Pass Clock Ashbringer Lotus Get Chalk Flyingbooks Get Shadowblaze Pass Shadowblaze Archer Get Gun Kill Ventyl Burnt Spaghetti Get Lantern Line of Warding Ventyl Get Shadowblaze? Araris Valerian Use Acid Bucket Pass Lantern Shard of Reading Random Bystander Get Book of Revocation Line of Warding Devotary of Spontaneity Line of Vigor Kasimir Get Chalk Line of Forbiddance Mist Claimed actions are italicised. I can confirm Araris's claimed action as I now have the Lantern. We also know Burnt Warded last night so she cannot have passed me her Lantern. And there is still one Lantern in the Camp Supplies so there is none unaccounted for. Thanks to Devotary, we also know that as of N4, Ventyl had only a Bribe on him. Ventyl was not recorded as collecting Chalk D5 so I presume he made a try for the Shadowblaze. As such, it is not possible that Ventyl was able to Revoke the Shadowblaze and die with it. Camp Supplies have lost three pieces of chalk, which means that of our unclaimed action pool of six players: <Mist, Devo, Reading, Lotus, Ash, Gears>, three of them took Chalk, one of them put in a Night Kill, and - if Books isn't lying - one of them stole the Shadowblaze. Here's the thing. If we assume Books was truthful about the Shadowblaze vanishing, then there are only two possibilities for the Line of Removal+ - Revocation+ will steal the item, and Vigor+, as per a clarification from Sart, will vanish the passed item from the game. In other words, if Books did not pass the Shadowblaze, then only a player with Revocation+ or Vigor+ could have stolen or removed it. This is because the Shadowblaze is not in Camp Supplies. Players Known to Have Revocation+ or Vigor+ Spoiler Player Specialisation Possible? Kasimir Vigor+ Line of Forbiddance Ventyl Revocation+ Out of chalk Flyingbooks Vigor+ No, but may have passed it and claimed it was stolen Random Bystander Vigor+, Revocation+ Line of Warding (Could be cover for use of Revocation, while teammate covers with Line of Warding to keep numbers consistent. Would almost certainly have to be Evil if so.) Ashbringer Revocation+ Yes I stress this is largely publicly known information because of who took which Book. I claim to have used a Line of Forbiddance last night, so I couldn't have taken the Shadowblaze. Books can be ruled out, because they can't have wasted chalk on themselves. Rather, Books would've just lied about it going missing. Randby has both specialisations, but claimed to have used a Line of Warding - this might have been why they claimed publicly early on, to give themselves cover for use of Revocation. Another possibility is Ash, who does have Revocation, and has publicly stated a few times his desire to acquire the Shadowblaze. This list is of course incomplete, and part of this hinges on who within the action pool of six might also have Revocation+ or Vigor+. Finally, a reminder to all: please, please someone get a map, or if you already have one, use it tonight. As Alv says, we need a constant supply of chalk and acid flowing into the camp. Finding the Forgotten is important but if we don't continue to ensure we can Ward the camp, we lose anyway.] Edited February 13, 2021 by Kasimir 1
Gears Posted February 13, 2021 Posted February 13, 2021 The robotics tournament was postponed/canceled because of "bad weather". [For those wondering, I did fairly alright yesterday, my team won a few matches, lost a few matches] This means that I will be here for a bit! I do have a CS competition later though 29 minutes ago, Kasimir said: Note that my analysis changes if any of the Forgotten put down acid in the day - this would allow them to mess with our expected defenses and still retain the ability to act at Night. This would actually be my primary assumption if elim!Books. If Books acquired the Shadowblaze, they could keep quiet and use a Line to ensure that Books gets trust. If Books failed, they could just claim the Acid and earn a bit of credit. Frees up action economy, etc. I think this makes the elim!Books scenario more likely, particularly the 2 elim subpoint. They'd just need the one LoW in that case, not even Specialised. 38 minutes ago, Kasimir said: Camp Supplies have lost three pieces of chalk, which means that of our unclaimed action pool of six players: <Mist, Devo, Reading, Lotus, Ash, Gears>, three of them took Chalk C'est moi. Needed to make up for not taking Chalk during the Day. Others in pool of unclaimed actions: What did you do? Tangent: New nickname for Random Bystander: Ruby [RBy -> Ruby]. The Servant of the Mad God watched the gunman bury the corpse of the one he had killed, flipping Chalk in his hands as he pondered the nature of power and corruption. The ability to take a life was... dazzling. Smoke and fire and metal and blood contained within a fragile shell. The ability to irrevocably alter the world, to strike down that which does not please, to tear apart what was in favor of what shall be. Heady and addictive and so, so maddening. He knew that power intimately. He knew the guilt, or lack thereof, that came from being wrong [even if he never felt it]. He knew that "sane" people didn't usually take to it well. Some did not kill again. Some tore themselves apart. Some returned to a fallacy of normalcy. Evan Wallace seemed to fall in the third category. The eternal search, only expanded. Fascinating. He moved through the camp slowly yet surely, projecting an aura of casual confidence as he moved towards the tent of Shimamura Sakura. He had spoken to her a few times, bantering about idle nothings. She had seemed pleasant enough, and she'd trusted him somehow. Foolish. The grave was very rigid, at exact angles and measurements. As one would expect from a military encampment, but still, Sakura had managed to make each grave seem more individualised. He chuckled softly, watching the cold earth. With a soft sigh, he adopted the Doctrine of Brutality [Kindness is a weakness. To be kind is to be mad. Take and take and never stop]. Out of a weak fragment of "kindness", he spilled a small handful of his chalk dust onto the grave. The plants responded and grew despite all logic, all reason, all sanity dictating otherwise, what with the chalk and the acid staining the barren earth. Antirrhinum, lycoris, chrysanthemum, iberis. A morbid bouquet that would die within days. He left the grave, transitioning to a different Doctrine as he abandoned the corpse. There was work to be done. 1
Kasimir he/him Posted February 13, 2021 Posted February 13, 2021 18 minutes ago, Gears said: This would actually be my primary assumption if elim!Books. If Books acquired the Shadowblaze, they could keep quiet and use a Line to ensure that Books gets trust. If Books failed, they could just claim the Acid and earn a bit of credit. Frees up action economy, etc. I think this makes the elim!Books scenario more likely, particularly the 2 elim subpoint. They'd just need the one LoW in that case, not even Specialised. [OOC: Thought so, but I relooked my actions tracker. D1: 3 Buckets of Acid, only one claimed - by Araris (he used it the next Day, mind!) N1: 2 Buckets of Acid, only one claimed - by Alv (he also used it Day 2) D2: 1 Bucket of Acid, claimed by Lotus (she used it D4) N2: No Acid. D3: No Acid. N3: No Acid. D4: 2 Buckets of Acid, only one claimed - by Burnt (unused) N4: 1 Bucket of Acid, claimed by Araris (he used it D5) D5, N5, D6 - 4 Buckets of Acid. Not saying this can't be the case going forwards, but we have no Acid Buckets unaccounted for unless @Burnt Spaghetti gave away her Bucket to someone else to use D5, because D5, Burnt is logged as collecting a Lantern. I guess we could also have people surreptitiously passing to teammates during the Night, but then we'd need another Evil player on LoW at night to account for this then, I reckon. Not sure if the action economy checks out.]
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted February 13, 2021 Posted February 13, 2021 I ended up taking Archer's suggestion and used a LoM on Books to see who they passed the Shadowblaze to, but they didn't take an action that I could see. I've asked what I would see if Books tried to pass the Shadowblaze to someone but someone stole it before it could be given away. Books also could have just kept the Shadowblaze or lost it to a LoV+. Whatever the case, this should mean that Archer is still a villager unless Archer was actively trying to become an elim and me getting hit by a LoV+ would return that Books took no action regardless of what happened, but this seems highly unlikely. I do wonder what was going on with Books claiming that Ventyl threatened to steal the Shadowblaze since Ventyl couldn't have actually done so unless he was passed chalk for whatever reason.
Burnt Spaghetti she/her Posted February 13, 2021 Posted February 13, 2021 (edited) 4 hours ago, Kasimir said: [OOC: Thought so, but I relooked my actions tracker. D1: 3 Buckets of Acid, only one claimed - by Araris (he used it the next Day, mind!) N1: 2 Buckets of Acid, only one claimed - by Alv (he also used it Day 2) D2: 1 Bucket of Acid, claimed by Lotus (she used it D4) N2: No Acid. D3: No Acid. N3: No Acid. D4: 2 Buckets of Acid, only one claimed - by Burnt (unused) N4: 1 Bucket of Acid, claimed by Araris (he used it D5) D5, N5, D6 - 4 Buckets of Acid. Not saying this can't be the case going forwards, but we have no Acid Buckets unaccounted for unless @Burnt Spaghetti gave away her Bucket to someone else to use D5, because D5, Burnt is logged as collecting a Lantern. I guess we could also have people surreptitiously passing to teammates during the Night, but then we'd need another Evil player on LoW at night to account for this then, I reckon. Not sure if the action economy checks out.] Still got my bucket Edit: oh yeah and can confirm was 5 defense Edited February 13, 2021 by Burnt Spaghetti
Araris Valerian he/him Posted February 14, 2021 Posted February 14, 2021 (edited) I want to say more, but have been kinda busy. My vote is on Mist for 2-ish reasons: 1) She claimed to have tried to grab items every turn. No indication that she is trying to help defend the village, or just lying and doing elim things. 2) Last cycle, during what seemed that the time to be an important vote between myself and Striker, Mist claimed both to be suspicious of me and trusting of Striker, but didn't vote. That fits with an elim in a v/v vote between very active players. Edit: The other thing is that Mist has been active on the Shard. So she could have voted, but chose not to Edited February 14, 2021 by Araris Valerian
Ashbringer he/him Posted February 14, 2021 Posted February 14, 2021 I’ll throw a vote on Lotus. What have you been up to? You seem quieter than usual and I haven’t seen much, er, action impact. I’ll move to Mist if needed. My actions are also traceable although their results are... not what I was anticipating. (Well, traceable depends on your definition I suppose.) @Mist @Lotus
Flyingbooks Posted February 14, 2021 Posted February 14, 2021 20 hours ago, Archer said: And why’d you take it anyway in the first place? My plan was to keep it circulating among villagers. I know that I'm a villager but I don't know if other people who are trying to get the Shadowblaze are villagers, so since I got it, I can give it to a person who I trust. If people only ever pass the Shadowblaze to people at the top of their trust lists then at some point an elim could possibly get it, but that's less likely and would take more time than an elim getting it randomly from the supply. I will pu a vote on Mist. In addition to what Araris said, doing everything based on RNG makes her actions less easily analyzed and claiming to RNG would allow her to subtly protect teammates if she is an elim because she could always say that she voted on a villager instead of an elim in a close grinch because the dice told her to.
+Lotus she/her Posted February 14, 2021 Posted February 14, 2021 44 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: I’ll throw a vote on Lotus. What have you been up to? You seem quieter than usual and I haven’t seen much, er, action impact. I have a horrible tendency of not using items because "what if they could be more useful later?!!"
Mist she/her Posted February 14, 2021 Posted February 14, 2021 Y'know what, fine. Grinch me. I don't care. Okay I do kinda care. Also my actions haven't been RNG for a little while. And I decided not to vote Gears because I was thinking either I vote by RNG or I don't vote. Because I don't want to feel like I have to do analysis to figure out who to vote on, because then I have to analyze everyone (I know this maybe isn't true but whatever.) I'm happy to claim my actions so far. But honestly, I'm feeling a little done with this game. And with RPing. And with today. I'm slightly trusting of Books. Archer exists, I'm not sure how I want to feel about them. Because they could get converted. I'm village. I think I trust Kas. Other: Ash, Gears, Lotus. If I were going to pick a team, I'd probably say Araris (who knows maybe I'm tunneling if so sorry), Shard, Devotary, and Bystander probably. and you know what? I just threw this together. Not guaranteed, not necessarily correct, but you know what, it's what I've got. Araris and this isn't RNG
Ashbringer he/him Posted February 14, 2021 Posted February 14, 2021 My guess is the Elim team is 3 other people. 6 would be far too many for a 23-person game I know I almost did it myself don't quote me and Elandera shut it down for me she'd probably shut it down for Sart Also chance of conversion probably lowers the values. ... somehow I forgot @Shard of Reading was even in this game... you got anything? 12 people. Archer's confirmed for now, meaning in a group of 11 2-3 are elims. Yikes.
Mist she/her Posted February 14, 2021 Posted February 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: My guess is the Elim team is 3 other people. 6 would be far too many for a 23-person game I know I almost did it myself don't quote me and Elandera shut it down for me she'd probably shut it down for Sart Also chance of conversion probably lowers the values. Fair point. Yeah, thanks.
Kasimir he/him Posted February 14, 2021 Posted February 14, 2021 (edited) 9 hours ago, Ashbringer said: My guess is the Elim team is 3 other people. 6 would be far too many for a 23-person game I know I almost did it myself don't quote me and Elandera shut it down for me she'd probably shut it down for Sart Also chance of conversion probably lowers the values. ... somehow I forgot @Shard of Reading was even in this game... you got anything? 12 people. Archer's confirmed for now, meaning in a group of 11 2-3 are elims. Yikes. [OOC: I'll fix formatting later. Araris believes there's four in fact. He mentioned in a PM they had five the previous iteration and with the Shadowblaze, Sart felt it was too strong. Might have changed his mind since it's not a hidden rule now. No idea.] Edited February 14, 2021 by Kasimir bold and justification
Araris Valerian he/him Posted February 14, 2021 Posted February 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, Kasimir said: [OOC: I'll fix formatting later. Araris believes there's four in fact. He mentioned in a PM they had five the previous iteration and with the Shadowblaze, Sart felt it was too strong. Might have changed his mind since it's not a hidden rule now. No idea.] That's not exactly right, since I was unclear in our PM. LG57 had 13 players, and 3 elims, which is closer to 25% than 20%. And then when Sart told the elims about the Shadowblaze, he said it was probably broken. So my guess is he would have erred toward a smaller elim team this time around. But I could be wrong, and trying to guess what is going on in the mind of the almighty GM is always a dangerous game.
Kasimir he/him Posted February 14, 2021 Posted February 14, 2021 (edited) 9 hours ago, Araris Valerian said: That's not exactly right, since I was unclear in our PM. LG57 had 13 players, and 3 elims, which is closer to 25% than 20%. And then when Sart told the elims about the Shadowblaze, he said it was probably broken. So my guess is he would have erred toward a smaller elim team this time around. But I could be wrong, and trying to guess what is going on in the mind of the almighty GM is always a dangerous game. [OOC: Ah, my bad — thanks for the heads-up! My personal view is we plan as though there's three since that gives us more room for error than otherwise. If less, lucky accident, if three, we won't be taken by surprise. Edited to add: H'okay. So my current reads list: Rithmatist Squad, Assemble!: This tier is my highest level of trust reads at this point. I could be mistaken - I would categorise the interpretation of this tier as 'moderately likely Village.' TJ and Archer pre-Shadowblaze were in a stronger trust read tier for me, but those days are past now, and in the past they must remain. Spoiler Archer: Convincing Non-Rithmatist claim, and I received Vigor+ from him N4. In my view, I would still tentatively trust Archer, but this is based off a mild trust read of Books. I'm going to briefly talk about my Shadowblaze thoughts here: Books PMed me last Turn to say he was handing me the Shadowblaze - as Devo pointed out in a PM, if Books was going to pretend it was stolen/hand it off to Archer, they could've just kept quiet about it instead of PMing me, or announcing they were passing it on. We also have Devo's LoM scan on Books, which is consistent with Devo being hit by Vigor+ (why? IMO, more a Village-side action than Evil, so if no Villager claims this, then Devo was likely not LoVed), or consistent with Books being hit by Vigor+ (again, anyone gonna claim?), or simply Revoked. Possible Books was just hit by Vigor, but if so, they should've reported a roleblock. If Books was hit by Vigor+, the Shadowblaze is out of the game and not our problem right now, so Archer's Village. The one option that's a bit tricky is if Books didn't take an action at all, in which case being hit by Vigor+ wouldn't do anything, and Devo's scan wouldn't pick up anything. But it's not really clear why Books wouldn't take an action after saying they would, and they PMed me a bit before cycle close, so forgetting isn't likely. Even if the Removal+ person targeting Books was Evil, they need an extra Turn to pass it to Archer, so for the moment, Archer is still a moderate trust. Things will/may change after this Turn - we should definitely check Archer's NR teaching specialisation is intact, but in my view, once we've said it, Team Evil may try to Vigor+/Vigor Archer to confuse things. I actually don't think that's an awful situation and I welcome it if they want to waste chalk given their actions economy. Gears: I think whatever the prevailing theory is, it would've been highly unlikely that TUO would've slammed a third vote down on a teammate. Busing is one thing, distancing another thing, and it doesn't look like that kind of situation here. Too, I have confirmation from another player that Gears passed the clock to them, and in my view, Evil Gears could've just made the clock disappear. I won't be revealing the third party in the thread for opsec reasons. Ash: Second on the Danex counterwagon - I don't think Team Evil had much incentive to go there, because it was essentially swapping off one Villager to another anyway. Ash was also pressing TUO about map use, which IMO, unnecessarily exposed TUO to suspicion and flak if he was Evil. He was also third on the D4 TUO train, so I think I would give Ash the benefit of the doubt. These, among other reasons, lead me to think Ash is likely Village. (Hey I Just Met You, And This Is Crazy, Here's My Reads List) Rithmatists Maybe?: This tier contains/includes players I think are likely to be Village, with weak certainty. Spoiler Books: Voting patterns are still weird - at the same time, I feel like many of the situations in which the Defence was gamed are a bit too complicated for me to think them likely at this point. I also think that there was little reason for Books to PM me about the Shadowblaze if they'd intended to pass it off as stolen after all. Though maybe they were hoping to gain some trust from that? I don't know. Devo makes a good point that the altercation with Ventyl is doubly strange since Ventyl was killed by the Gun, meaning that if Books was trying to claim the Shadowblaze was stolen, Ventyl could easily have shown up in the thread the next day to refute that. And as soon as Ventyl was found to be a mislynch, then attention would go back to Books. I'm not sure that's a worthwhile calculus. Other thoughts on Books - I still feel like Books could have provided TUO with an alibi for not using the Map, which would have at least been consistent with TUO's position on Warding being more important than the Map. Books had no reason to claim the LoW to TJ, basically, which makes me think Books is less likely to be TUO's teammate. At the same time, I feel like claiming to be passing me the Shadowblaze could also be good cover for the NK on any LoM scan except for Making+, since there's a natural excuse for why the Shadowblaze 'disappeared', as well as for why they were scanned as targeting me. But then there was no need to provoke the Ventyl fracas at all. Araris: This is weird and this is where I differ from others, but Araris has been scanned twice by Gear's Making+. On N2, Araris was found drawing a Line of Warding. On N4, collecting Acid, which he laid down on D5. Araris makes a good point about how busing TUO early instead of going for Striker would be a better move for Evil Araris, which he didn't do. Defending especially at this stage, IMO, seems to be prima facie a Village indicator - though Striker has definitely mentioned Araris deceiving him about a LoW in the last version of this game. Araris also passed me his Lantern last night (please note Lantern comes before Giving in OoA, which is why he was able to declare the Defence level) - I asked him if he'd be willing to consider passing the Lantern on since he suggested himself as a candidate for Archer's Gun kill, and it would be pointless to waste time making Village claim Lanterns again. [It's not possible he handed it to me figuring I'd die and he'd get it back - Giving comes before the Kill on OoA, so I'd have just died with the Lantern. It is true Evil Araris might not be overly bothered by a Lantern loss though, which is why this is weak trust, since my death would precisely force people to get the Lantern instead of items that directly affect Defence.] As a result, I can confirm that Araris could not have put in a kill or Removal+ order last night. I'm inclined to a weak Village read, with the thought being that if Araris is Evil, then Team Evil must have been badly affected in terms of the action economy N5. Lotus: Weakest of my weak Village reads. This is largely due to Lotus laying down the Acid D4, which freed up everyone to do Night actions. To be fair, she could have done it to gain trust, but I feel as though it's more helpful to the Village, since it frees us up to collect items or actually use Crab and Making scans at night with less of an opportunity cost. I am also somewhat suspicious of Reading, and so I take the fact that Reading tried to vote on Lotus instead of Connie (at that point in time) to be very weak indication of Lotus's alignment - but I might have to re-evaluate if we get a flip on Reading. Whole Lotta Nuttin': This tier contains players I'm just not really sure about. Spoiler Devo: Having just come out of the AG, I feel like Devo tends to make helpful and sensible suggestions no matter which team she's on. Crab scan on Ventyl is consistent with both Village and Evil Devo, as Evil might have wanted to know where the clock ended up - yet I feel like Evil Devo has no reason to actually tell us the results of the scan, and could have sat on it. If Archer has the Gun, then no one else went for it. In my view, that means Evil likely went for the Shadowblaze or other items. Striker claimed he was going to pass me either his Map or his Lantern, before he died, as he doesn't want Village to waste actions getting them, and seeing as he's Village, I think this is weak confirmation that Devo did in fact LoV Striker. But then, I feel like Evil Devo had no reason to proactively suggest, and offer to LoV Striker, much less to actually do it. Finally, Devo LoMed Books last Night, but in my book ( ) that could be a Villager trying to see where the Shadowblaze ended up and/or if Books had put in a kill. Or it could be a Forgotten trying to play 'find the Shadowblaze.' Lean very very light Village. Burnt: I have a negative gut read of Burnt and I don't know why. At the same time, it appears she did Ward the camp last night, and I think Archer makes a decent point about Evil having an actions crunch, or the Warding book might've vanished by now to deny us Warding+. The 'why is Striker still alive' PM I received from her on D4 does make me a bit nervous. Overall, null read. Randby: Randby has been playing low profile, which could be an Evil player trying to stay under the radar, or just their playstyle. Or both! They have excellent taste in music so they're obviously Village. Oh, okay, I'll be serious Seems to have put down a Line of Warding last night - I agree with Archer again on actions crunch. At the same time, Randby used the Map N3 while TUO refused, and it seems strange to me because I'd expect teammates to be more synchronised in strategy, i.e. not using the Map. (If I were paranoid: TUO was meant to be bused anyway, but then this would point to TJ, me, or Ash, which I don't consider likely at all.) Lean very light Village but still just null. Welcome To The House of Paranoia!: Spoiler Reading: As I've said before, Reading going onto Lotus against Connie in the D3 voting sticks out to me, as does their vote by the point it's clear TUO is being bused, and their assertion that TUO is Evil and Striker-Gears are Villagers having an internal brawl. Reading did Ward on N2 though, and I find it strange that both Evil Reading and TUO would Ward on the same cycle. Low-profile. Mist: This is weird because my gut doesn't think Mist is Evil and I'm not sure whether to go with my gut or not. Araris makes a good point about Mist's suspicions versus her voting behaviour D5, though. Probably my suspicions list is borked somewhere, but I'm keeping my vote on Reading for the moment.] Edited February 14, 2021 by Kasimir Didn't want to doublepost. 3
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