Long Game 73: The Forgotten Coup

[Random Bystander she/her]

I warded. With the specialization, that added 2 to the defense.

Grace was mad. Duncan had been the only person she had had multiple long conversations with. Her eye twitched. "CURSE YOU FORGOTTEN!" She yelled at the top of her lungs. "CURSE YOU!!!" He had been a kind person, so she'd avenge his death. That would show more than a burial. It's what she would want.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

So two extra defense got added. Looks like Ruby is claiming that and they got the warding specialisation so entirely possible. Net of -1 bucket of acid, +1 lantern. Kas should have had 1 chalk, 1 rainbow chalk, a lantern, and possibly an acid bucket according to what I think his actions spreadsheet is saying. If Kas used up his rainbow chalk, this checks out since a chalk is added to the supply with his death and then Burnt took a piece of chalk to leave the same amount behind.

[Gears]

All hail Kasimir, the one who guided us to greatness. Ni su'cuyi, gar kyr'adyc, ni partayli, gar darasuum. Let us honor him for his actions, for his sacrifice, for all the good he did and failed to do.

Camp Supply disparity: -1 Acid, +1 Lantern. Kas had the Lantern, so that makes sense. Items could have been taken and cancelled with Kas adding. *ninja'd by Devotary* Thanks for the information. 

The pool of suspicion remains as follows: Bubbles, Devotary, Mist, Ruby in roughly that order. Speaking of Ruby: They used a LoW+ last night, so slightly improved opinion. I'd be willing to strike them from the X candidates. As Kas pointed out in the long ago times, Mist has not attempted to carry the favor of the village and they used a Map at a strange time, so I'd take them off as well. The X pool has narrowed to Bubbles and Devotary. I'll iso them later [I meant to do it in the night, but I procrastinated and the Shard ate it a few times.]

EDIT: @Archer, who did you teach? @Person who was taught, verify this.

---

The Servant of the Mad God stood before the still form of Duncan Kerr, the greatest Rithmatist that the Tower had seen in many a year. He was gone now, lost to the cause, but he left so much evidence behind. The runes drawn upon the earth were beautiful things, intricate and maddening, destruction and salvation dancing within their twisting coils. A last will and testament, of sorts, a masterpiece of chalk and blood, a worthy final act. 

Perhaps it was kindness, or perhaps mockery that drove him to take the slab of stone from the forest and lay it before the dead man's masterwork in a facsimile of a gravestone. Perhaps it was kindness, or perhaps mockery that drove him to carve words into the slab in a language that no one from this realm knew save for him. Perhaps it was kindness, or perhaps mockery that drove him to offer the man's legacy an epitaph. In any case, it was done, and all he could do was laugh at the taste of dust on the wind and blood on the floor and eyes gleaming in empty sockets.

Here lies Duncan Kerr, Rithmatist of Rithmatists:
Look upon his works, ye Mighty, and despair.

Edited February 19, 2021 by Gears

[Archer he/him]

Might as well just put this out in the open. Everyone who scanned, please report it publicly because between the soft clears and scans, I think we've got them. 

I used a Crab last night to scan Mist instead of doing a specialization lesson. They have eight items, so they're a bit of a hoarder, but having cross referenced with Kas' notes, everything checks out. They haven't used anything they haven't reported using, including chalk. 

More importantly, they now have a bucket of acid. Therefore they could not have submitted the NK.

Edit: Hang on, something's gone wrong. I'll retract this vote shortly 

 Burnt 

 

Edited February 19, 2021 by Archer

[Flyingbooks]

My LOM+ showed that Devotary LOM+ed Burnt.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

So, I took Chalk during the night, which means for the numbers to add up, Burnt can't have. I'm pretty sure that makes Burnt and Devotary our last two forgotten.

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

Noo Kas D:  rip buddy

-Camp defense 3

Wait no Araris I did grab chalk wat? Kas had some chalk so that would've been added back into the pile right?

[Archer he/him]

Gears LOMed Random

Flyingbooks LOM+ Devo

Archer deployed a crab

Burnt grabbed chalk

Devo did a LOM+ on Burnt 

Random LoW+

Mist grabbed acid

Araris grabbed chalk 

Devo has to be covering for Burnt if they're e/e. If it's a lone elim, it's Araris. (Burnt)

[Araris Valerian he/him]

6 minutes ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

Noo Kas D:  rip buddy

-Camp defense 3

Wait no Araris I did grab chalk wat? Kas had some chalk so that would've been added back into the pile right?

Yeah, Kas had a single Chalk at most. So for the amount of Chalk in the supply to remain constant, you must be lying, and hence responsible for the murder of Duncan.

[Flyingbooks]

I will vote for Burnt because the evidence points to her doing the NK.

[Gears]

There are two possibilities here: 1. Bubbles and Devotary are elims together, Devotary is lying about Bubbles taking Chalk, Bubbles submitted the NK. Questions from this possibility: Why actually submit a scan then? Why not just lie and save the Chalk? Fearing a scan? Perhaps... Uncertainty. 2. Araris is the last elim, submitted the kill, lying about taking Chalk to incriminate Bubbles and Devotary. Questions: Why do that really strange post about Striker? Genuinely pushing for the mis-X? 

Both seem possible. We must discuss this and consider. We could take the route of X-ing Bubbles and then if she's village X-ing Araris. The tides seem to be flowing that way regardless. Which do we think more likely? Bubbles and Devotary as elims, or Araris alone?

[Flyingbooks]

A Burnt and Devotary team seems like it'd be more likely than Araris as the last elim to me at this point, but I agree that if Burnt turns out not to be an elim we should execute Araris tomorrow.

[Archer he/him]

So right now I'm trying to figure out which is the more likely bluff: Araris going for the gun and having a 50/50 chance of dying, or Devo using their rainbow chalk to scan their teammate. Either of them is the product of a cunning mind and whichever of you pulled it off has my eternal respect.

Kas, Araris, Gears, Flyingbooks, and I coordinated our actions in a PM last round. Burnt and Devo should have been unaware of who would be targeted, save for the reasonable assumption that they both might be because they were in the suspect pool. My guess is they would forgo the NK in that position, or have Burnt submit it and Devo come out and say ah ha! for village cred. If you’re going to use your rainbow chalk on the off chance that you’re both scanned, why not use it better?

In the PM, Araris said they were out of chalk (which is true) and planning to restock. But they would have known who everyone’s targets were, including that Kas (the night kill) was going to scan Burnt. They would have also known that they would not themselves be scanned because why on Earth would they go for the gun if they were Lotus’ teammate?

My preference is to exe Araris because if they flip elim, they may have a teammate who we’ll need to track down. It'd be a small pool, but if they go full deep-wolf, they have a shot at it. If Devo and Burnt are teammates, if Araris flips village, we will know who the remaining Elims are with certainty and still have the numbers to lock in a win. (8:2 becomes 7:2 at the end of the day, then NK 6:2, exe 6;1, NK 5;1, exe 4;0).

Either way, it’s our choice of juicy info kills. Apologies if we get it wrong today, I promise we’ll get it right the next time if so.

[Random Bystander she/her]

I think we might want to look at some of the people Kasimir found suspicious. I don't know though. Logically, if someone found me suspicious and I was an elim, I'd probably go after them if I thought I could do it without looking too suspicious. I don't remember who he found suspicious, but I'm trying to contribute more, so those are my thoughts on it.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

I doubt Araris as the last elim would have gone for the gun and risked an immediate loss. Taking the 50% chance of death for trust is somewhat more likely if he had a teammate who could still win without him. It still seems drastic for elim!Araris to take that step when he wasn't in immediate danger of being exed.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 hours ago, Archer said:

In the PM, Araris said they were out of chalk (which is true) and planning to restock. But they would have known who everyone’s targets were, including that Kas (the night kill) was going to scan Burnt. They would have also known that they would not themselves be scanned because why on Earth would they go for the gun if they were Lotus’ teammate?

But when I said that, I had no idea of what Burnt was going to do. elim!me would have to hope that someone else was going to grab chalk (and regular chalk, rather than the rainbow stuff), in order to frame somebody.

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

I'm so confused

 

Edit:

So

Isn't me- I grabbed chalk

Isn't dev- they saw me grab chalk

Isn't Araris- why would they contest a buddy for the gun

Isn't Randoby- they line of wardinged

Isn't archer- pretty established and they crabbed

Isn't books- they lom'd Dev, though, given dev posted results first, that could easily be fudged

Isn't gears- lom'd randoby

Isn't mist- they grabbed acid

 

GUYS THIS IS HURTING MY HEAD

Edited February 19, 2021 by Burnt Spaghetti

[Araris Valerian he/him]

We're all idiots. Kas died with 2 Chalk. If you count his actions, it adds to 1 remaining, but he drew 2 lines after only taking Chalk once. Thus Kas started with Chalk, and died with 2. This means that Burnt didn't send in the kill, and Devotary is being honest. I think the only possibility here is Mist and Archer are elims. One of them sent the kill, and the other grabbed acid (probably Mist, to be consistent with their story). This works because Mist had the action available to steal the Shadowblaze from Ash.

Archer could sort of be an elim by himself, but there is no way that the elims started with just 3.

This also explains why Archer is going after me. Easy double misgrinch.

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

On the topic of the shadowblaze- if it's still in play, it's not. If it's held by a villager we've a passive +1 to defence, or evil a passive -1. Or if archer gets it it's consumed. All our defence is accounted for so. There's no shadowblaze in play. Right?

Edit: unless the person holding it dies then it poofs so that's possible too, idk if need to look back at stuff

 

Edited February 19, 2021 by Burnt Spaghetti

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I’m proposing that Archer got it sometime between the death of Ash and last night.

Edit: Except it seems like Mist used a Map on N6 when the Shadowblaze would have needed to have been stolen. Bother.

Edit2: So Books could have sent in the kill, or Archer could have, or Mist could have with Archer covering. I think everything else checks out.

Edited February 19, 2021 by Araris Valerian

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

21 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I’m proposing that Archer got it sometime between the death of Ash and last night.

Hm. Interesting.

Just trying to think, if it was stolen is the defence count done before or after? Would the defence score that turn be reflective of ash holding it or the one who stole it?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

The Shadowblaze effect stays regardless of if it were moved around. I think the only possible way for the Shadowblaze to have not died with Ash is for someone to have given it to Archer during D7. The only players that could have done that are Mist and Burnt.

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

In that case then I'd agree with voting Mist because their alignment is going to be reflective of Archers. I think it's worth us checking to see what's gone on with the shadowblaze.  

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Okay, so Mist probably isn’t elim. Or at least, Mist almost certainly couldn’t have converted Archer with the Shadowblaze. For Archer to be an elim, someone needed to steal the Shadowblaze on N6 when Ash died and then pass it to Archer during D7 so that it wouldn’t mess with defense last night. We have Mist as using a Map during N6, so unless we can figure out how an elim would have gotten an extra map (possible, but I judge unlikely), this couldn’t have happened.

It seems that Burnt could have done so, however. And the action economy works out if Burnt and Archer are elims. Burnt grabs Chalk, Archer sends in the kill and agrees with what Mist said.

Independent of all that, Books can only be an elim if Lotus had Warding+. All D5 actions are accounted for, so to counteract a -1 defense instead of a +1, the elims would need 2 extra defense. Then during N5 Lotus could add 2 defense and Books could send in the kill. I guess another scenario here is that Gears is elim (we don’t have a N5 action claim from him to my knowledge), and they just did 2 LoW and the NK. But I don’t really see Gears as being an elim. It’s just technically possible.

So, the possible teams seem to be:

Mist/Archer
Burnt/Archer
Books
Books/Gears

Of these, I think solo Books and Burnt/Archer are the two most probable, since Mist requires an extra Map, and Gears’s actions don’t seem to fit too strongly with him being elim.

[Random Bystander she/her]

6 hours ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

I'm so confused

Me: *nods in agreement* same here