Mid-Range Game 47: Conflict of Superiority

[Quintessential she/her]

1 hour ago, StrikerEZ said:

And I think it could be Quinn (who I suspect the most of being the Spy)

Well don't go giving me away! No, I'm not the Spy lol. Though I suppose the elims might not believe that... if they kill me over this, I'm blaming you, Striker.

Edit: 500 posts! 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Quinn0928

[Snipexe he/him]

Bleh, sorry for my inactivity. Been quite busy since Christmas, so I'm currently trying to get caught up. I've only skimmed through the thread, so this may be a gross generalization, but from what I can tell, the reason for the rather large vote train on Breaker is just because they've been strange all game, and generally bizarre voting patterns/suspicions. Is this correct?

[Straw he/him]

4 hours ago, Snipexe said:

Bleh, sorry for my inactivity. Been quite busy since Christmas, so I'm currently trying to get caught up. I've only skimmed through the thread, so this may be a gross generalization, but from what I can tell, the reason for the rather large vote train on Breaker is just because they've been strange all game, and generally bizarre voting patterns/suspicions. Is this correct?

The things that I've seen at least:

• Breaker has not really given reads
• Breaker's vote switching last cycle was confusing and seems like it might have been to cause a tie
• Breaker has had a generally odd tone (begging for elims to kill him, not really offering any defense today, etc)
• Breaker wouldn't give reasoning for his suspicion on Liranil

On that note, I don't think I actually remembered to vote for Breaker. Might as well do so, even if it won't make a difference.

[Elandera she/her]

Lost track of time. The cycle is closed! Standby to find out what happens next.

[Elandera she/her]

Kaviq held themselves back from gesturing in satisfaction. They were close to collapsing the DSI. Close enough they could taste it. Slowly but surely, they were turning on their own members.

“He needs to be removed. We are of primary intelligence, above this kind of behavior. His actions have only caused chaos within the hall.”

There were agreeing gestures and mutters across nearly all of the hall.

The one in question—a draft dione Kaviq didn’t recognize—remained quiet despite his outspoken nature the day before. It was rather unusual for a draft to be included in the assembly, but their parents had both been influential members of Starsight’s government. This particular draft wouldn’t likely be chosen by the family. Too chaotic for most dione expectations.

Kaviq, on the other hand, suspected they might have made a good member of the DPS. A little more forward thinking. A little more willing to take necessary risks for the benefit of the Superiority.

The High Minister’s assistant called for an official vote. Nearly unanimous.

Kaviq couldn’t suppress the gesture this time. One more out of their way, and another soon to follow.

***

Xino twitched its fingers, worried about the turn things have taken in the assembly. They were quickly losing support and its influence wasn’t enough to keep the DPS from overwhelming their request.

The bright blue dione strode from the hall after the session closed for the day. Still no progress. Still no closer to making a final ruling on Keras’s proposal. Yet so many of their ranks were gone.

Xino pursed their lips at the thought. What had been happening to their members? It was concerned about the ones who hadn’t returned. Some had simply disappeared.

The dione was lost in thought as it stepped into the streets of Starsight. It was busier than normal. It would be easy to get lost in the crowd.

Easy to be taken from the crowd.

Rough hands grabbed Xino’s arms.

“It’s time for you to take flight.” The voice was that of a varvax, mechanical and tinny. “Your friends in the nowhere await your arrival.”

A sharp pain split its head. And then there was nothing.

Nothing until it woke to see a spherical portal into true nothing. A blackness so deep that nothing had a chance to escape. Then a stretching as the molecules that made Xino were pulled bit by bit into that sphere.

---

Cycle Four

Breaker has been deposed! He was a member of the Department of Species Integration!
Xinoehp512 has been killed! He was a Dione Leader with the Department of Species Integration!

Vote Count:
Breaker (10) - TJ Shade, Quinn0928, Straw, Somebody from Sel, Liranil, Ghanderflaffle, StrikerEZ, xinoehp512
Liranil (2) - Dannex, Breaker

Player List

Spoiler

1. @TJ Shade
2. @Quinn0928
3. @Straw
4. @Somebody from Sel
5. Matrim’s Dice DSI Figment
6. @Dannex
7. Archer DSI
8. @Snipexe
9. @Liranil
10. Ventyl DSI
11. @Ghanderflaffle
12. Araris Valerian DSI Heklo
13. @StrikerEZ
14. Ashbringer DSI Heklo
15. Xinoehp512 DSI Dione Leader
16. Breaker DSI
17. BrightEyes2 DSI Tenasi Pilot

This turn will end on December 30 at 7:00 p.m. PST.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Elandera

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Well. That’s concerning. I guess I was wrong about the distribution and Breaker being an elim? I need to rethink my suspicions now. And there were two votes added to Breaker. I’m assuming one of them was village and the other elim. Maybe there are four elims and the only reason we’re still alive is because we have a Dione. I’m not sure what to think anymore.

[Guest Somebody from Scadrial]

It is now E/Lo my new form of lylo. Who is next up for the chopping block? I know I am sussed by quite a few people and could very likely be lynched here.

[|TJ| he/him]

If it's 4 elims, we're already a minority. There's evidence of 2 Cambrics and 1 Dione remaining. The Dione was the one who removed a vote off Breaker in C2, so they're probably village, or at the worst, the Spy. 1 of the Cambric added the vote causing Archer to be eliminated. So they're probably evil. Not sure why Cambric!Spy might have caused the elimination. The longer the game goes on, the higher their chance to win, so this Cambric is most certainly evil rather than Spy. And we do not know anything about the remaining Cambric. 

Reads:
Dannex - His retraction of Matrim in C2 looks better now that Breaker flipped village. He could have not retract and hoped Mat to include in the tie. Village read.
Liranil - Broke the tie to favor BrightEyes in C2. Village.
Quinn - Feels village but I don't know. Sort of paranoid. 4 of the 6 voters on Ventyl flipped village, and the remaining are Liranil and Quinn. If I'm reading Liranil as village, then that leaves Quinn. Surely not all 6 voters on Ventyl were village? Unsure. 
Straw - Fringe voting + elim kill pattern could be Straw trying to remove influential people early, then village reads later. Mild evil.
SfS - Don't think an elim would react in such a way, ie that aggressively defensive. But they did have a final vote on Breaker in C2, which is suspicious because without vote manipulation, it would have caused a triple-tie.
Snipexe - Could be a good guess for the Spy. Haven't spoken much.
Ghander - Again, haven't spoken much. 
Striker - General posts feel very village.

So I'd say my total elim + Spy pool would be Straw, Quinn, SfS, Snipexe and Ghander. Somebody from Sel.

[Liranil she/her]

Okay, so this leaves us with nine players. If we're still assuming four elims, then it's 4 elims, 4 villagers, and 1 spy. The rules specifically state that the elims need to reach a majority where vote manipulation no longer has any effect, and we know that there are at least two Cambrics and one Dione left in play (two added votes this round for the Cambrics, and last round two votes had been removed, and only one Dione has been killed), so we can assume that one or more of those are village; otherwise, we'd already be done for. Although I do very much hope that part of the reason we're still alive is that there have really only been 3 elims this whole time. That would be a pleasant surprise.

51 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

 And there were two votes added to Breaker. I’m assuming one of them was village and the other elim. 

I'm curious, why are you assuming this?

For roles, there are nine of us left, at least two Cambrics and one Dione, which leaves six. There was still one Heklo left last time, so there must still be at least one here (anyone feel comfortable sharing about being in a PM? Idk if that will help us or not). Striker said last round that they think they know who one of the Heklos is and that they believe that Heklo is trustworthy (and mentioned later that it was one of the three that they trusted, TJ, Snip, or Xino). Presumably, there's also at least one Varvax leader left (and if so, they haven't successfully saved anyone yet, unless I missed that in one of the write-ups). Those two would leave us at four left, and taking off the spy would leave three people without roles or with repeat roles. We're also not sure if the spy has picked up any abilities from their research, but last cycle they had a pretty good chance of gaining an ability (and that may have even been where that extra Cambric vote came from), and I'm guessing they don't have one of the other abilities to start with.

I'm not sure how helpful that is, I mostly wrote it out for my own benefit/clarity. For me, Quinn and TJ seem the most village, probably because they both have contributed a lot of really helpful information, and Striker seems more village to me, but I'm not sure why. My top picks for elims right now would be Somebody (due to some odd phrasing in a certain post--am I allowed to quote from the main thread and how would I do that if I am?), Straw (again because of their lack of reasoning on some of their reads posts), and a little of Dannex (more of a gut read). I'm not sure what to think about Snipexe not voting, and Ghander hasn't been on a lot, so I'm not sure about them.

I think I'm still alive for two reasons: I've been sussed so I might be a good distraction, and I'm a pretty bad detective apparently. I'd really like to be in a game where we actually get an elim out, but we'll see how this goes. For right now, I'm voting Somebody.

As a side note, I just finished reading Starsight and the write-ups make much more sense now!

Edit: Ninja'd by TJ

Edited December 29, 2020 by Liranil

[danex he/him]

I’m not sure about a SfS vote, they’re certainly suspicious, but seeing as how we’re almost certainly at exlo, I don’t think I’m certain enough to risk it all.
It’s definitely a possibility that SfS is an Elim, but right now I’m reading Liranil as Elim even more. The only thing we have against SfS is their defensiveness, but I think they just tend to be a naturally defensive player. As a naturally defensive player myself, I’m hesitant to vote for that reason alone. 
Considering how that situation was also mainly a misunderstanding, I don’t want to risk our last chance on it.

I’m just going to get through the last of my notifs and then go to bed, so don’t expect anything else from me for a while. 

[Quintessential she/her]

9 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Quinn - Feels village but I don't know. Sort of paranoid. 4 of the 6 voters on Ventyl flipped village, and the remaining are Liranil and Quinn. If I'm reading Liranil as village, then that leaves Quinn. Surely not all 6 voters on Ventyl were village? Unsure. 

Wait, four of the six Ventyl voters have died? Huh, hadn't realized that... Anyway, I agree that it seems unlikely that all the Ventyl voters were village, so that means it must be Liranil. I know I'm village.

[Straw he/him]

Hi, I’m the Detritus Spy! Now, you may be wondering why I’m claiming, and that’s a pretty good question. Well, I’ve realized that us humans really are a threat, and that the Department of Protective Services is right. That’s why I’ve decided to join them!

You might be thinking that the DPS will just kill me and grab a conversion, but that wouldn’t really help them. I have a Dione vote manip, so I can essentially create a +2 vote difference. If the DPS killed me, they’d grab a villager, gaining a +2 vote difference. Therefore, the DPS wouldn’t gain anything from my death. They would also be missing out on the chance to kill a villager, so it’d be a net loss for them. The DPS can also ensure my loyalty very easily. If I turn against them, then they can just kill me and I’d lose. I also don’t have any reason to betray them, since I don’t win with the village or anything.

@DPS let me know if/when we have enough combined votes/vote manip to win. I look forward to winning together. 

[Liranil she/her]

Okay, but is it that unreasonable that 6 villagers would have voted Ventyl? There were 17 of us at the beginning, and if there are 4 elims, then still, over 2/3 of the people first round were village. The elims could avoid suspicion by just sitting back and letting us vote Ventyl out, knowing they would turn up village. 

I mean, I know I'm village, and I also think Quinn is village, too. I really don't think it's that unlikely that all 6 voters would be village and the elims would just sit back and let us kill each other.

The reason I'm voting Somebody is because of this specific thing they said in cycle 2 (before the four-people death) which I noticed when I reread the thread: "I very much dislike a Matrim kill, as he is a very good village and I would rather have him helping us, rather than cursing us from the grave." (This is on page 12 of the main thread, 4th post down. Idk if this is the right way to quote, idk how to quote across threads)

This seems like a really weird statement to make because Somebody is assuming that Matrim is village, which we know was true, but they didn't really consider the fact that Matrim could have been an elim. If Somebody is an elim, they knew that Matrim was innocent (and I think that's where either the elims or the tenasi pilot killed Matrim). Idk, it just sets off alarm bells for me.

[Quintessential she/her]

53 minutes ago, Straw said:

You might be thinking that the DPS will just kill me and grab a conversion, but that wouldn’t really help them. I have a Dione vote manip, so I can essentially create a +2 vote difference. If the DPS killed me, they’d grab a villager, gaining a +2 vote difference. Therefore, the DPS wouldn’t gain anything from my death. They would also be missing out on the chance to kill a villager, so it’d be a net loss for them. The DPS can also ensure my loyalty very easily. If I turn against them, then they can just kill me and I’d lose. I also don’t have any reason to betray them, since I don’t win with the village or anything.

Okay... so then why wouldn't we just exe you? That way, we are guaranteed not to hit another villager. The elims lose a +2 vote difference in you, gain a +2 vote difference from the village, and lose the villager death from the exe (because I'd be very surprised if both Liranil and SfS are elim, and the elims have at least one vote-manip on their side, possibly more if they can somehow coordinate with DS!Straw). So it's a net loss for the elims if we exe Straw.

Also, how do you intend to communicate with the elims exactly? Do you have Heklo abilities in addition to Dione? 'cause somehow I doubt the elims are gonna be super eager to reveal their identities to you in-thread. 

[Straw he/him]

Just now, Quinn0928 said:

Okay... so then why wouldn't we just exe you? That way, we are guaranteed not to hit another villager. The elims lose a +2 vote difference in you, gain a +2 vote difference from the village, and lose the villager death from the exe (because I'd be very surprised if both Liranil and SfS are elim, and the elims have at least one vote-manip on their side, possibly more if they can somehow coordinate with DS!Straw). So it's a net loss for the elims if we exe Straw.

If the village votes me out, they lose. If it's 3 v 5 v 1 today, and the village votes me out:
-1 Spy from vote
-1 village from elim kill
-1 village from convert
+1 elim from convert
Which makes 4 v 3, so the elims have a majority and win.

[Quintessential she/her]

9 minutes ago, Straw said:

If the village votes me out, they lose. If it's 3 v 5 v 1 today, and the village votes me out:
-1 Spy from vote
-1 village from elim kill
-1 village from convert
+1 elim from convert
Which makes 4 v 3, so the elims have a majority and win.

Right, so basically we're doomed to fail now, huh? Unless we vote out an elim. 'cause if we vote out a villager we have

- 1 village from exe
- 1 village from elim-kill

which makes 3 v 3 v 1. Fair enough, we're not gonna exe you then. We'll just... exe an elim and hope that you have no way of contacting the elims for future rounds, I suppose.

Edit: though it's kinda tempting to vote you off anyway

Edit edit: Wait what if Straw is an elim Dione trying to trick us into never voting him off? But... well that wouldn't make much sense because Straw isn't being suspected by anyone. And the real DS could just counter-claim... actually, what if it's a ploy to get just that to happen? I mean, elim!Straw claims DS and "aligns elim" to explain why he's not being killed off by the elims, uses logic to avoid the village exe-ing him, and then sits back and watches everything fall apart. If the real DS counterclaims, the elims either kill them or convince them to "align elim" as Straw has said he will. If the real DS doesn't counterclaim, then the elims have more or less saved one of their number in case we do manage to exe an elim this round.

idk how likely that is but I don't see what the downside would be for the elims here... (I mean, except for "a villager somehow figuring out the plan"). Well, the downside would be "the villagers realize that Straw is elim" but by then it would likely be far too late.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Quinn0928

[Liranil she/her]

25 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Right, so basically we're doomed to fail now, huh? Unless we vote out an elim. 'cause if we vote out a villager we have

- 1 village from exe
- 1 village from elim-kill

which makes 3 v 3 v 1. Fair enough, we're not gonna exe you then. We'll just... exe an elim and hope that you have no way of contacting the elims for future rounds, I suppose.

Edit: though it's kinda tempting to vote you off anyway

Edit edit: Wait what if Straw is an elim Dione trying to trick us into never voting him off? But... well that wouldn't make much sense because Straw isn't being suspected by anyone. And the real DS could just counter-claim... actually, what if it's a ploy to get just that to happen? I mean, elim!Straw claims DS and "aligns elim" to explain why he's not being killed off by the elims, uses logic to avoid the village exe-ing him, and then sits back and watches everything fall apart. If the real DS counterclaims, the elims either kill them or convince them to "align elim" as Straw has said he will. If the real DS doesn't counterclaim, then the elims have more or less saved one of their number in case we do manage to exe an elim this round.

idk how likely that is but I don't see what the downside would be for the elims here... (I mean, except for "a villager somehow figuring out the plan")

See, I was thinking it was odd that they went automatically with the lower number of three elims, although that could just be them underestimating since 4 elims would just automatically mean we're done. 

No matter what, yeah, we have to vote out an elim this cycle.

[Quintessential she/her]

4 minutes ago, Liranil said:

See, I was thinking it was odd that they went automatically with the lower number of three elims, although that could just be them underestimating since 4 elims would just automatically mean we're done. 

No matter what, yeah, we have to vote out an elim this cycle.

Wait... you're right, they did. I hadn't even noticed that, though if they're wrong all it means is that we're even more doomed. 

[Liranil she/her]

17 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Wait... you're right, they did. I hadn't even noticed that, though if they're wrong all it means is that we're even more doomed. 

So the question is, were they trying to give us the best chance/odds, or did they just let insider information slip?

[Straw he/him]

37 minutes ago, Liranil said:

See, I was thinking it was odd that they went automatically with the lower number of three elims, although that could just be them underestimating since 4 elims would just automatically mean we're done. 

No matter what, yeah, we have to vote out an elim this cycle.

32 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Wait... you're right, they did. I hadn't even noticed that, though if they're wrong all it means is that we're even more doomed. 

14 minutes ago, Liranil said:

So the question is, were they trying to give us the best chance/odds, or did they just let insider information slip?

I'm assuming three elims because the village has pretty much lost if there are four, so there's little point discussing that. Also, it's not like this is a new thing. Literally my first post on cycle one was commenting that I think there's three elims:

 

[Quintessential she/her]

10 minutes ago, Straw said:

I'm assuming three elims because the village has pretty much lost if there are four, so there's little point discussing that. Also, it's not like this is a new thing. Literally my first post on cycle one was commenting that I think there's three elims:

Well, there are currently 8 non-Spy players. If there are 4 elims, then all the village has to do in order to not have lost yet is have one more vote-manipper than the elims. So long as that's the case, it's perfectly possible that there are 4 elims. At this point, the number of elims doesn't actually change anything, but still.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

I think Straw is bluffing. I think he's an elim (presumably their dione, though he could be faking for a teammate), and I think Quinn is the spy. I'm voting for Straw, but I could be persuaded to vote for Liranil instead, if no one is willing to switch to Straw.

[|TJ| he/him]

47 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I think Straw is bluffing. I think he's an elim (presumably their dione, though he could be faking for a teammate), and I think Quinn is the spy. I'm voting for Straw, but I could be persuaded to vote for Liranil instead, if no one is willing to switch to Straw.

I would be willing to switch, but I don't see any reason for elim!Straw to do this. What would be the motive? They seem to be close to a victory too.

[Liranil she/her]

5 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

I would be willing to switch, but I don't see any reason for elim!Straw to do this. What would be the motive? They seem to be close to a victory too.

Maybe they're trying to draw out the real spy, if they're faking? That's a little far-fetched though. They can win just by voting off an imposter, but they could also win by voting off the spy, and maybe they're trying to mix things up. I'm not super eager to vote Straw, though, since that's a long shot.

Also, does anyone have a reason for voting/sussing me other than the fact that I voted for Ventyl?

[Straw he/him]

12 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

I think Straw is bluffing. I think he's an elim (presumably their dione, though he could be faking for a teammate), and I think Quinn is the spy. I'm voting for Straw, but I could be persuaded to vote for Liranil instead, if no one is willing to switch to Straw.

I can offer up the fact that Liranil is a Dione as proof.