Long Game 72: The Secret of Shinovar

[Araris Valerian he/him]

25 minutes ago, Ookla's Dice said:

The elims... have been winning a lot lately. I've only played two village wins. And yes one of those I was an elim

I think this is because there have been a lot of players with lower activity, a reluctance to vote, and less of a penchant for doing analysis.

[dannnex male]

Belatedly adding a RP character: Dtham-son-Havam.

Dtham, like many others, had heard of the plan proposed by Radek-son-Jhoun. Switching the honorblades among them? A dangerous move. However, Dtham would accept this duty with dignity were it to come upon him.

Yay I’m here now. This game is gonna be fun!  I don’t have a ton to say, haven’t analyzed much yet, but I did notice this in the starting RP:

Quote

There were two other points: one where a guard had vanished, another where they'd simply been strangled. Multiple incursions, although only one was a large group.

I think this is Ash hinting at the 2 secret roles. We have three groups here, the “large group” is presumably the Elims, while the 2 other factions could represent the secret roles. 
I’ll be calling them The Strangler and the Vanisher, until we have a better idea of what they are. I think it’s safe to say that the 2 secret roles are against the village, as in the RP they are attacking the Shin. I think The Strangler might be some form of Awakener, (Awakened rope?) so maybe it’s worth looking at past games Ash has been in with an Awakener role? See what those abilities were? No idea about the Vanisher though. Surge of Transportation radiant? Jasnah? 
 

Obviously this is all assuming that this wasn’t just meaningless flavor text. It very well might be. 

[Quintessential she/her]

7 hours ago, Ookla's Dice said:

Caution doesn't hurt though. PM safety isn't an issue now, but that would be nice to try to improve from recent games  

Hehe... 

PMs likely will open at some point, probably soon, since according to Ash Honorblade Bearers start the game with two Stormlight. So it's likely PM safety will be a real issue. Also, @Ookla Fell From The Sky I don't remember who it was, but somebody said they thought that the Honorblades could start off in the hands of an elim. Is that the case?

[STINK he/him]

10 hours ago, Ookla the Shadowed said:

Just so you know gears claims elim every single game, so him doing that is pretty much NAI.

So, stuff. I really like the conversation already, there's a good amount of info. @STINK, just to be sure, was that a poke, were you voting for him claiming elim, or another reason?

The claim of elim that apparently wasn't a claim of elim me no understand that one, I always vote for people trying to get free village points with big posts explaining abilities when like cmon people just read the rules there shouldn't be anything new there, and also just giving advice to everyone? That's minus village points, so they're at a net negative there.

Also most of this D1 discussion is not on my vibe, maybe I RP later kinda busy but shall see

[Quintessential she/her]

Just now, STINK said:

The claim of elim that apparently wasn't a claim of elim me no understand that one, I always vote for people trying to get free village points with big posts explaining abilities when like cmon people just read the rules there shouldn't be anything new there, and also just giving advice to everyone? That's minus village points, so they're at a net negative there.

Also most of this D1 discussion is not on my vibe, maybe I RP later kinda busy but shall see

lol STINK have you ever played a game with Gears before? His whole thing is to create a long post analyzing the rules and giving advice to both the elims and the village, and somewhere in that post he always subtly claims elim (well, up until now). 

[STINK he/him]

Yeah so if they always do a thing I do not like, they will always receive a vote from me in very blunt terms I guess

[Quintessential she/her]

Just now, STINK said:

Yeah so if they always do a thing I do not like, they will always receive a vote from me in very blunt terms I guess

Okay, well I guess we know where things stand with you then. Anyway, do you have any thoughts at this point? I know you said you don't like this kind of D1 discussion but you're the only one who appears to be on at the moment so...

[STINK he/him]

I think we vote Gears off, ignore truthless it ain't ever worth contemplating. Other unique roles are whatever, hope they're having fun doing their thing. 

Otherwise, we can all just get some RP done, talk about our lives and just kinda chill for D1 we ain't got PMs yet

[Quintessential she/her]

1 hour ago, STINK said:

I think we vote Gears off, ignore truthless it ain't ever worth contemplating. Other unique roles are whatever, hope they're having fun doing their thing. 

Otherwise, we can all just get some RP done, talk about our lives and just kinda chill for D1 we ain't got PMs yet

I agree with most of that plan except for voting Gears off lol There isn't a reason to, and while obviously there's no reason not to (that we know of) that's equally true of everyone else (except for me, because obviously I'm not gonna vote myself off). 

[Mat he/him]

9 hours ago, Somebody from Sel said:

I will claim Elim *drops mike*

Spoiler

Reads:

• SfS, Books: Slight Village
• Quinn, STINK, Araris: Null Village
• Danex, Illwei, Alvron, Devotary, Gears, TJ: Null
• Connie, Experience: Null Elim

Edited December 5, 2020 by Ookla's Dice

[Ashbringer he/him]

3 hours ago, Quinn0928 said:

Hehe... 

PMs likely will open at some point, probably soon, since according to Ash Honorblade Bearers start the game with two Stormlight. So it's likely PM safety will be a real issue. Also, @Ookla Fell From The Sky I don't remember who it was, but somebody said they thought that the Honorblades could start off in the hands of an elim. Is that the case?

PAFO.

(Someone asked about it. That doesn’t mean I answered them .)

[Illwei]

3 hours ago, STINK said:

I think we vote Gears off, ignore truthless it ain't ever worth contemplating. Other unique roles are whatever, hope they're having fun doing their thing. 

Otherwise, we can all just get some RP done, talk about our lives and just kinda chill for D1 we ain't got PMs yet

I-

I agree about ignoring that unique roles to some extent, I'm not too worried about them.

2 hours ago, Quinn0928 said:

I agree with most of that plan except for voting Gears off lol There isn't a reason to

*flashbacks*

10 hours ago, Somebody from Sel said:

I will claim Elim *drops mike*

Is Mike okay though?

3 hours ago, Quinn0928 said:

PMs likely will open at some point, probably soon

I- I would hope so, but I wouldn't be so sure of that. I mean,, They probbaly will, but in LG67 I had the ability to open PMs or heal someone, and I only opened PMs once. Worst case scenario the Elims have Chan-Charana-Chararana- uh, that honorblade, the one with Division and Abrasion, and PMs might not get opened for quite a bit. 

Of course maybe whoever has the Honorblade really likes PMs and will open them right away. Who knows. but paired with Healing- I mean, Healing isn't really relevant N1, sometimes 2, but you can only make two actions within 3 turns.

[Quintessential she/her]

8 minutes ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

Of course maybe whoever has the Honorblade really likes PMs and will open them right away. Who knows. but paired with Healing- I mean, Healing isn't really relevant N1, sometimes 2, but you can only make two actions within 3 turns.

Hopefully if the elims do have that honorblade, they'll decide PMs are important for them as well... I mean, you can use them to gain info no matter what your alignment is.

Edit: It just occurred to me: imagine if the elims get ahold of one of the blades that has Tension... the person with that blade could use up their two Stormlight to grant 4 Stormlight to Szeth, at which point Szeth would have enough Light to Nightblood kill.... that would be bad

Edited December 5, 2020 by Quinn0928

[Condensation she/her]

3 hours ago, STINK said:

The claim of elim that apparently wasn't a claim of elim me no understand that one, I always vote for people trying to get free village points with big posts explaining abilities when like cmon people just read the rules there shouldn't be anything new there, and also just giving advice to everyone? That's minus village points, so they're at a net negative there.

Also most of this D1 discussion is not on my vibe, maybe I RP later kinda busy but shall see

Actually, whenever I've played with Gears it's really helpful to me since I'm a fairly new player. I enjoy seeing their thoughts about everything, even if sometimes I don't agree with them. I also think it's kind of unfair to vote someone because they were doing something they do every time and likely trying to help.

Reads(albeit mild because c'mon, this is only cycle one):
Everyone's kind of tunneling on Gears. While it is true that they could be elim, we don't have any good evidence that they are. I think part of this is because they did this giant post like they usually do, so everyone has things that they find suspicious. Gears totally could be an elim. I'm not saying that they are or aren't. All I'm saying is that we need to expand our horizons.
People are saying they didn't read the rules. This is kind of suspicious to me, why wouldn't you read the rules slowly and carefully if you know you'll be joining and playing? In my thinking, this seems like a valid excuse to them for not posting. So far, Gears has shown the (second) most knowledge about the rules/roles and Mat and Illwei have said that they need to reread the rules. These are also the only two people who replied to my "Be more cautious in voting" post, although the "in voting" was implied. Mat is reading Illwei as Null. This is just me shoving a bunch of random data together, in case you couldn't tell.

[|TJ| he/him]

6 minutes ago, Ookla Fell From The Sky said:

PAFO.

(Someone asked about it. That doesn’t mean I answered them .)

Ash definitely put both the PM Blades in the hands of elims.  

1 hour ago, Ookla's Dice said:

  Reveal hidden contents

Reads:

• SfS, Books: Slight Village
• Quinn, STINK, Araris: Null Village
• Danex, Illwei, Alvron, Devotary, Gears, TJ: Null
• Connie, Experience: Null Elim

Can you give reasoning for the village read on SfS? All they've done is claim elim. Why is it village indicative?

Village read on Devotary and Illwei. Also leaning village on Araris and Books.

3 hours ago, Quinn0928 said:

lol STINK have you ever played a game with Gears before? His whole thing is to create a long post analyzing the rules and giving advice to both the elims and the village, and somewhere in that post he always subtly claims elim (well, up until now). 

Actually STINK has played a game with Gears, and he did the exact same thing in that game too (MR44). You can find the relevant post here. And since STINK was a villager that game, I'm inclined to read him the same now too. Very mild village on Quinn.

Leaning not-village on Alvron, Connie, Gears, Danex

[Quintessential she/her]

1 minute ago, TJ Shade said:

Actually STINK has played a game with Gears, and he did the exact same thing in that game too (MR44). You can find the relevant post here. And since STINK was a villager that game, I'm inclined to read him the same now too. Very mild village on Quinn.

I hate being new... I never know these things lol

Anyway, yes, I'm inclined to read STINK as village as well, in that case. Or at least, not inclined to read him as elim. 

Also, reasoning on the SfS village read would be nice, Matrim... claiming elim is not really indicative of whether you are village or not at this point, since we've had enough villagers do it that elims can feel safe doing it as well. That being said, since SfS has said literally nothing else I don't have a read on them either.

[Condensation she/her]

1 minute ago, Quinn0928 said:

I hate being new... I never know these things lol

*sigh* Same.

@Ooklil' the Wei, can I get some reasoning for your vote on me?

[Eternum he/him]

I don't have much of value to add, I think, but having played with Gears I think that post is pretty NAI. As for the Truthless, I think leaving them alone is good. They're going to want to play with the village for the most part: the elims want to get rid of them, if only so they have a better chance of killing the Stone Shaman, and that doesn't fulfill the Truthless's win condition. Eventually we can lynch them, if we get to a point where a wasted lynch doesn't hurt us. I think Araris brought this up earlier, but I'm on mobile and will check after I post

Will post something more worthwhile when I get home. For now, I think Gears and Stink haven't said anything alignment indicative, but that doesn't mean the interaction isn't worth looking into. It's D1, after all, and Gears has yet to respond (I think? Maybe I missed it.)

I'm.. going to ignore SfS for now, that's not a very helpful claim on their part all things considered..

Edited December 5, 2020 by Eternum

[Mat he/him]

16 minutes ago, Ookla the Grammatical said:

Actually, whenever I've played with Gears it's really helpful to me since I'm a fairly new player. I enjoy seeing their thoughts about everything, even if sometimes I don't agree with them. I also think it's kind of unfair to vote someone because they were doing something they do every time and likely trying to help.

Reads(albeit mild because c'mon, this is only cycle one):
Everyone's kind of tunneling on Gears. While it is true that they could be elim, we don't have any good evidence that they are. I think part of this is because they did this giant post like they usually do, so everyone has things that they find suspicious. Gears totally could be an elim. I'm not saying that they are or aren't. All I'm saying is that we need to expand our horizons.
People are saying they didn't read the rules. This is kind of suspicious to me, why wouldn't you read the rules slowly and carefully if you know you'll be joining and playing? In my thinking, this seems like a valid excuse to them for not posting. So far, Gears has shown the (second) most knowledge about the rules/roles and Mat and Illwei have said that they need to reread the rules. These are also the only two people who replied to my "Be more cautious in voting" post, although the "in voting" was implied. Mat is reading Illwei as Null. This is just me shoving a bunch of random data together, in case you couldn't tell.

Hmmm... tentative vote on Connie. Could change based on later Connie/Illwei interaction, currently just a gut feeling.

15 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Can you give reasoning for the village read on SfS? All they've done is claim elim. Why is it village indicative?

 

12 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Also, reasoning on the SfS village read would be nice, Matrim... claiming elim is not really indicative of whether you are village or not at this point, since we've had enough villagers do it that elims can feel safe doing it as well. That being said, since SfS has said literally nothing else I don't have a read on them either.

*Shrugs* Gut instinct (and past observation) tells me that SfS is the kind of village player to do something like that. I agree the claim itself isn't alignment indicative, but I think the person claiming is. 

He also could be the Truthless, but either way I'd prefer to keep him alive.

[Quintessential she/her]

I don't know whether anyone else has looked into this or not, but I decided to try to get a fuller picture of what actions can be done during the Day vs. during the Night, and I also composed a list of what the special roles (Kaladin, Szeth, and the Honorblade Bearers) can do each turn. I don't know whether it's really worth typing out the whole list, but there are some things I noticed:

Each of the Honorblades has an action that can be performed either during the Day or during the Night; for five of them, the second surge is a Night surge, and for two of them it's a Day surge.

Additionally, the two blades with Abrasion on them, Chanarach's and Vedel's, are two of the ones with Night only actions. Since Abrasion is more powerful/useful at night, that means that those two blades and their Bearers are most powerful at night. 

Kaladin, by contrast, has a Day action and a Night action. So, in a given turn there's only one action Kaladin can perform. And Szeth has two Night actions: Gravitation (which he shares with Kaladin) and his Nightblood kill. I'm not entirely sure yet how useful Gravitation will be to the elims (or to anyone tbh) because it's kind of meta. I would guess that early on in the game, Szeth will save up their Stormlight (after three cycles, in the absence of Tension, they will have enough to Nightblood-kill). Kaladin will likely focus on using Adhesion, or will at least always keep a Stormlight on hand in case it's needed.

Anyway, I'm not sure how useful this analysis of stuff actually is, but... well... yeah, nobody directly said any of this before, so I figured I would put it out there.  

Edit: to add on slightly, I would note that Szeth doesn't have any actions that they can perform during the day, since elim-kills only occur at night. Furthermore, except during cycles when Szeth submits a Nightblood kill, they may end up being the one to submit the elim-kill, since they'll be saving up Stormlight and the other elims would theoretically, at some point, have Honorblades to use. Obviously all of this changes if Kaladin or Szeth also has an Honorblade, but still.

Edited December 5, 2020 by Quinn0928

[Illwei]

18 minutes ago, Ookla the Grammatical said:

in case you couldn't tell

I could tell, and it makes me feel better about my vote on you

21 minutes ago, Ookla the Grammatical said:

I enjoy seeing their thoughts about everything, even if sometimes I don't agree with them

I think my problem with Gears' posts is the giving advice bit, because even though I think it's interesting to see what Gears thinks, they phrase it in a way that is (telling) the village (er, and Elims) what they should do.

23 minutes ago, Ookla the Grammatical said:

Everyone's kind of tunneling on Gears. While it is true that they could be elim, we don't have any good evidence that they are. I think part of this is because they did this giant post like they usually do, so everyone has things that they find suspicious. Gears totally could be an elim. I'm not saying that they are or aren't. All I'm saying is that we need to expand our horizons.

I don't see people tunneling on gears tbh, I see Stink being Stink and people trying to tell him not to. 

I also think that looking for "good evidence" Day one just helps people find an excuse to not vote.

26 minutes ago, Ookla the Grammatical said:

People are saying they didn't read the rules. This is kind of suspicious to me, why wouldn't you read the rules slowly and carefully if you know you'll be joining and playing? In my thinking, this seems like a valid excuse to them for not posting.

People read them when they join, but then might not look over them before posting on the thread because they want to respond to the thread because it's finally up and people are talking and I can talk and I like talking :P. 

--

29 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

And since STINK was a villager that game, I'm inclined to read him the same now too

I think that- Okay, yeah, it's D1, so there's not much to go on, but- I think that's an easy thing to do, regardless of alignment, so voting on Gears shouldn't be AI unless you're assuming Stink is an Elim with Gears or not at all. 

--

As I side note, for the truthless:
Please don't try to get yourself killed early game. I mean- yeah, sure, it's your wincon, right? but who likes dying early? no one :P. 

[Quintessential she/her]

1 minute ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

I think that- Okay, yeah, it's D1, so there's not much to go on, but- I think that's an easy thing to do, regardless of alignment, so voting on Gears shouldn't be AI unless you're assuming Stink is an Elim with Gears or not at all. 

Right, I guess I phrased that poorly, sorry... I'm inclined to believe he's village because I like to think the best of people (*cough*Gears*cough*), but I have no solid reasoning for that, or even much of a hunch based on phrasing or tone of his posts. If that makes sense?

[Gears]

Sidenote: I'm currently still in the debate tournament, so expect inattentiveness, non-responsiveness, and maybe some lurking since I leave the tab open for hours while I'm not looking at it.

I was definitely wrong about the Stone Shaman claiming bit and the Truthless bit. I somewhat forgot that the Truthless needed to be lynched, not merely die, even though I was staring at the rules. Maybe it's because it technically doesn't fit with the flavor. I would like to make it known that my advice is not necessarily wise, good, or reasonable, and I shouldn't be listened to without cause. Though I make recommendations, you are free to play how you wish, and come up with your own strategies. 

The votes on me seem to be for 1. Posting role analysis [which is my modus operandi], and 2. Having shoddy analysis [which is fair, but I wasn't declaring a want. I was speculating on how the Shaman could build a trust circle with closed PMs and didn't really convey that well.]. While I will admit that there are points against me, I do not think that it constitutes my demise. However, it is D1, so I would expect shoddy reasoning in abundance. 

I'll do a deep dive of the thread later. My next round's about to start. Hopefully it won't gain excessive quantities of pages in my absence. 

[Illwei]

48 minutes ago, Ookla the Grammatical said:

These are also the only two people who replied to my "Be more cautious in voting" post, although the "in voting" was implied

Wait a second. This:

12 hours ago, Ookla the Grammatical said:

I say we be more careful than in my past games

Was meant to be "Be more careful in voting" ??

Okay so I have many more problems with that, because I say don't be careful with voting, vote as many and as much as the GM will allow. Being careful/reluctant to vote is what gets us in those situations where the Elims win, because they can control it more easily. Of course, don't throw out votes all willy-nilly, but don't not-vote because there isn't any hard evidence. There will almost never be hard evidence. If you want to vote on someone because they 

Also Connie, to answer your question about why the initial vote, it was just that sentence. I personally don't like it when people tell me what we should do, especially when 1) It is probably a pretty obvious thing, and 2)... Okay, just one point then? When it's either a pretty obvious thing or something that doesn't make sense. Performative. That's it. This feels performative. it's like going "Man, those Elims, which we all hate, we should really try and kill them this time, as I too, like you, want to kill the Elims" :P. 
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

9 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

but I have no solid reasoning for that, or even much of a hunch based on phrasing or tone of his post

No, yeah, I get that. kinda. I think...I just - hey. Wasn't I responding to TJ, not you? huh?

EDIT:
This was going to be an edit into my last post, but TWO WHOLE PEOPLE posted in between then and now. I swear. It's been like, five minutes, no?

Edited December 5, 2020 by Ooklil' the Wei

[Quintessential she/her]

9 minutes ago, Gears said:

I would like to make it known that my advice is not necessarily wise, good, or reasonable, and I shouldn't be listened to without cause. Though I make recommendations, you are free to play how you wish, and come up with your own strategies. 

Okay, for the record, I did think you had one excellent piece of advice: that whoever has Chanarach's Honorblade open PMs N1, and whoever has Vedel's open PMs N2, and then that they alternate from there, regardless of who has them. That way, we can always have PMs open, but both people are free to do other actions some of the time (well, once every six cycles, but still). 

Obviously we can't force the two of you to follow that plan, but it would probably benefit just about everyone for us to reliably have PMs, so... Yeah. Those are my two cents on that particular point.

Edit: No, @Ooklil' the Wei you were responding to me.

Edited December 5, 2020 by Quinn0928