Long Game 72: The Secret of Shinovar

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

1 minute ago, Ookla Fell From The Sky said:

Battar's blade was essentially in limbo last turn, waiting to see if TJ's killer would claim it. Now, one way or another, a player holds it again.

Ishar's blade (and all other blades, iirc) has been in "circulation" the whole time, so to speak.

Ah, I see.

[Mat he/him]

And, why not, I'll throw this out there. Placements in order of surety (Most sure---Least sure):

---

Good: Me, Eternum, Connie, Books, Vasher

Evil: Jester, SfS, Alvron, Lotus

Null+: Devotary, Fura, Ventyl

Null-: Araris, Stink, Gears

Inactive: Supreme, eltruT, Kings

---

You can ask for reasoning but I can't promise you'll get it.

[+Lotus she/her]

10 minutes ago, Ookla's Dice said:

il: Jester, SfS, Alvron, Lotus

Oooh you think I’m evil?! How fun!

[Mat he/him]

8 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Oooh you think I’m evil?! How fun!

Turning a 2-way tie into a 3-way tie doesn't look good :P.

[Alvron he/him]

6 minutes ago, Ookla's Dice said:

Turning a 2-way tie into a 3-way tie doesn't look good :P.

It does in my books.    But then you also have me down as evil so...

[+Lotus she/her]

15 minutes ago, Ookla's Dice said:

24 minutes ago, Lotus said:

 

Turning a 2-way tie into a 3-way tie doesn't look good :P.

Nah I’m just good friends with RNGesus

Also I thought it might help prevent vote shenanigans 

Edited December 13, 2020 by Lotus

[Guest Somebody from Scadrial]

39 minutes ago, Ookla's Dice said:

And, why not, I'll throw this out there. Placements in order of surety (Most sure---Least sure):

---

Good: Me, Eternum, Connie, Books, Vasher

Evil: Jester, SfS, Alvron, Lotus

Null+: Devotary, Fura, Ventyl

Null-: Araris, Stink, Gears

Inactive: Supreme, eltruT, Kings

---

You can ask for reasoning but I can't promise you'll get it.

Hey! What did I do other than confuse you?

[Mat he/him]

7 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Also I thought it might help prevent vote shenanigans 

You thought causing a huge tie last minute would prevent vote shenanigans?

2 minutes ago, Somebody from Sel said:

Hey! What did I do other than confuse you?

:P. I mean confusion is never good. I've also seen signs of Kaladin!You, and you changed your bandwagoning playstyle which could be an elim holding back. 

[Guest Somebody from Scadrial]

Just now, Ookla's Dice said:

You thought causing a huge tie last minute would prevent vote shenanigans?

:P. I mean confusion is never good. I've also seen signs of Kaladin!You, and you changed your bandwagoning playstyle which could be an elim holding back. 

I changed that last game as people yelled at me for it and thought I was an Elim.

[Mat he/him]

6 minutes ago, Somebody from Sel said:

I changed that last game as people yelled at me for it and thought I was an Elim.

But did you change it because you RNGd elim? Only time and analysis will tell.

[+Lotus she/her]

33 minutes ago, Ookla's Dice said:

You thought causing a huge tie last minute would prevent vote shenanigans?

Yeah. Cause if the elims had vote manip planned it would be based around the current vote standing. Tieing messed with that

[Furamirionind]

23 players left in this game. 19 alive. Maximum 6 possible elims. That leaves 11 village, 2 neutral, 6 elims. Going to go through every cycle and look at how close we are to losing. I will be assuming Chana kills most of the time.

6 elims

Spoiler

N3: 11-2-6 (on this night there is minus a player for the NK, and possibly Chana (-NK, -Chana))
D4: 9-2-6 (-lynch)
N4: 8-2-6 (-NK, -Nightblood, -Chana)
D5: 5-2-6 (Village loss)

With 1 Chana kill:
N3: 11-2-6 (-NK, -Chana)
D4: 9-2-6 (-lynch)
N4: 8-2-6 (-NK, -Nightblood)
D5: 6-2-6 (Village loss)

Without Chana kills:
N3: 11-2-6 (-NK)
D4: 10-2-6 (-lynch)
N4: 9-2-6 (-NK, -Nightblood)
D5: 7-2-6 (-Lynch)
N5: 6-2-6 (Village loss)

 

With 5 elims:

Spoiler

With 2 Chana kill:
N3: 12-2-5 (-NK, -Chana)
D4: 10-2-5 (-lynch)
N4: 9-2-5 (-NK, -Nightblood, -Chana)
D5: 6-2-5 (-lynch)
N5: 5-2-5 (Village Loss)

1 Chana kill is worse in every way than 2 Chana kills, so excluding it to save on effort

Without Chana kills:
N3: 12-2-5 (-NK)
D4: 11-2-5 (-lynch)
N4: 10-2-5 (-NK, -Nightblood)
D5: 8-2-5 (-lynch)
N5: 7-2-5 (-NK)
D6: 6-2-5 (-lynch)
N6: 5-2-5 (Village loss)

With 4 elims (cause their roles are powerful):

Spoiler

N3: 13-2-4 (-NK, -Chana)
D4: 11-2-4 (-lynch)
N4: 10-2-4 (-NK, -Nightblood, -Chana)
D5: 7-2-4   (-lynch)
N5: 6-2-4   (-NK, -Chana)
D6: 4-2-4   (Village loss)

With 2 Chana kill:
N3: 13-2-4 (-NK, -Chana)
D4: 11-2-4 (-lynch)
N4: 10-2-4 (-NK, -Nightblood)
D5: 8-2-4   (-lynch)
N5: 7-2-4   (-NK, -Chana)
D6: 5-2-4   (-lynch)
N6: 3-2-4   (Village loss)

1 Chana kill is worse in every way than 2 Chana kills, so excluding it to save on effort

Without Chana kills:
N3: 13-2-4 (-NK)
D4: 12-2-4 (-lynch)
N4: 11-2-4 (-NK, -Nightblood)
D5: 9-2-4   (-lynch)
N5: 8-2-4   (-NK)
D6: 7-2-4   (-lynch)
N6: 6-2-4   (-NK)
D7: 5-2-4   (-lynch)
N7: 4-2-4   (Village loss)

TLDR: I believe 5 elims to be the most likely. This means we have between 1-2 mis-lynches left depending on how much Chana chooses to kill.

With 6 elims we have 0 mislynches unless Chana doesn't kill anymore, and with 4 elims we have between 1-3. The more I think about this game the less likely 6 seems as it would be rather unbalanced with Nightblood and the radiant roles... So I don't want anyone freaking out. I feel fairly safe in that we have a mislynch left.

I don't know if I'll have time for a full player by player analysis tomorrow. Have a lot of homework to do. But I'll try to get it done by the day turn if Im still alive.

[Mat he/him]

4 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

TLDR: I believe 5 elims to be the most likely. This means we have between 1-2 mis-lynches left depending on how much Chana chooses to kill.

I'm fairly certain 4 elims is the most likely, because- as you said- Kaladin and Szeth are both very powerful. Also, with the original player count having 23, with the three neutrals taken out it's down to 20. 5 elims = 25% of those players, which is high. 20% that we get from 4 elims makes much more sense to me.

I remember in MR42, you were elim, which is the only other game I've played with you, so I don't actually know if you theorize about player count all the time, you also did something like this. I think that's kind of interesting but again I don't actually know.

(Also, having thought more about it, a Lotus-Fura team is a possibility because of Lotus' last minute vote on Jester.)

[STINK he/him]

12 hours ago, Ookla's Dice said:

You can ask for reasoning but I can't promise you'll get it.

then whats the point

[Mat he/him]

3 hours ago, STINK said:

then whats the point

I can’t promise you won’t get it either.

[Furamirionind]

4 hours ago, Ookla's Dice said:

I'm fairly certain 4 elims is the most likely, because- as you said- Kaladin and Szeth are both very powerful. Also, with the original player count having 23, with the three neutrals taken out it's down to 20. 5 elims = 25% of those players, which is high. 20% that we get from 4 elims makes much more sense to me.

I remember in MR42, you were elim, which is the only other game I've played with you, so I don't actually know if you theorize about player count all the time, you also did something like this. I think that's kind of interesting but again I don't actually know.

(Also, having thought more about it, a Lotus-Fura team is a possibility because of Lotus' last minute vote on Jester.)

Hmm... ok yeah...

Since neutrals don't count for parity, 4 would make the most sense and be most likely. I'll drop the idea there might be 6, but I'll still keep 5 as worst case scenario.

[STINK he/him]

47 minutes ago, Ookla's Dice said:

I can’t promise you won’t get it either.

I genuinely can't parse this

[Mat he/him]

Just now, STINK said:

I genuinely can't parse this

I have actual reasoning for some of my reads, but not all. So depending on which read you hypothetically ask for you’ll either get reasoning or you won’t. Can’t promise which cause I don’t know which till someone asks.

[Alvron he/him]

1 hour ago, Ookla's Dice said:

I have actual reasoning for some of my reads, but not all. So depending on which read you hypothetically ask for you’ll either get reasoning or you won’t. Can’t promise which cause I don’t know which till someone asks.

So, how about you tell us which ones you have actual reasoning for so we know which ones to ask about?

[Mat he/him]

5 minutes ago, Alvron said:

So, how about you tell us which ones you have actual reasoning for so we know which ones to ask about?

I mean, sure.

I have actual reasoning that I can remember at this moment beyond gut and PM secrets for:

Gears, SfS, Books, Lotus, Jester

There are more but those involve PM secrets.

So a lot of gut. But that's kinda my playstyle :P, I've learned. I'm not great at coming up with actual reasoning for what I think. 

[STINK he/him]

8 minutes ago, Ookla's Dice said:

There are more but those involve PM secrets.

*yawn*

[Furamirionind]

53 minutes ago, Ookla's Dice said:

I mean, sure.

I have actual reasoning that I can remember at this moment beyond gut and PM secrets for:

Gears, SfS, Books, Lotus, Jester

There are more but those involve PM secrets.

So a lot of gut. But that's kinda my playstyle :P, I've learned. I'm not great at coming up with actual reasoning for what I think. 

Cool so uh...

Why do you mildly suspect Gears?
Why do you suspect SfS?
Why do you think Books is village?
Why do you think Lotus is evil?
Why do you think Jester is evil?

Sorry for just prodding you like this, but this has basically been the discussion this cycle and I don't have the time to add something new. There's no way I'm getting my analysis done in 2 hours.

I would specifically like to hear reads lists from @Ookla the Grammatical, @Ookla the Sprinkle, and @Ookla the Larkin.

I also wouldn't mind some thoughts from @Eternum in case he dois tonight as well. He's on my short list for likely deaths tonight.

[Condensation she/her]

2 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I would specifically like to hear reads lists from @Ookla the Grammatical, @Ookla the Sprinkle, and @Ookla the Larkin.

All right, give me a mo while I compile it.

[Mat he/him]

11 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Sorry for just prodding you like this, but this has basically been the discussion this cycle and I don't have the time to add something new. There's no way I'm getting my analysis done in 2 hours.

I expected it, so it's fine  

11 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Why do you mildly suspect Gears?

...You know, that one's a bit PMy too. Oops.

11 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Why do you suspect SfS?

Change of playstyle + Kaladin suspect because he's (in the past) ask/commented on roles that he has been, and he's done that with Kaladin this game.

11 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Why do you think Books is village?

His first post was a Shaman strategy that is very bad for the elims. 

11 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Why do you think Lotus is evil?

General notsayinganythingness, plus creating three-way-tie. Elim!Lotus makes Elim!you likely.

11 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Why do you think Jester is evil?

Flying under radar + bandwagony votes.

Edited December 13, 2020 by Ookla's Dice
I definitely didn't just put 'you!Lotus' instead of 'Elim!you'

[Condensation she/her]

Okay, reads list:

Gears: mildly suspicious(PM reasons - sorry!). Null to Mild Elim.
Mat: I trust Mat. Enough said(PM reasons and also the ones in the main thread). Strong Village.
SfS: I'm not sure about SfS. They have changed, but that could just be regular change? Mild Village to Mild Elim.
Araris: Araris has seemed a little more gung-ho in the past, but like I said, could be regular change. Null to Mild Elim.
Ventyl: Vote manip suspicious, it could be an attempt at a mislynch, though. Null to Mild Elim.
Devotary: Trustworthy, in my opinion. PM reasons again. Moderate Village.
Books: Seems kind of suspicious, but I'm not sure. Null.
Lotus: Also rather suspicious. Mild Elim.
Vasher: Seems pretty cool. Mild Village.
eltruT: Hasn't posted much. Null.
Kings_Way: Same. Null.
Supreme: Same. Null.
STINK: We chatted, they seem interesting but I don't have past experience with them. Null to Mild Elim.
Jester: We chatted, same as with STINK, they seem receptive to new ideas. I can't tell much about the game from them, though. Null.
Alvron: Seems suspicious and really wants ties, but I hear that's natural for them? Null to Moderate Elim.
Eternum: They were suspicious of me earlier, but it's died down.(Have you played before? What games?) Null to Mild Village.
Fura: They honestly won't leave me alone, even if other people have spoken for me. Some of their other posts really read village, though. Mild Village to Moderate Elim.

This good enough for you guys?