Long Game 67: The Road to Urithiru

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Well, I don't have a lot to say. I trust Orlok, Araris, Elbereth and Sart, and would happily lynch Gears or [ Striker ]. I'm going with mr EZ because it seems like several others want to lynch him but don't think there will be enough votes to do it. I don't really know where to go from here. I don't think TJ is suspicious enough to lynch just yet. I also don't think we should lynch Ventyl.

Also, does anyone have a Votecount? @Straw

[|TJ| he/him]

19 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Well, I don't have a lot to say. I trust Orlok, Araris, Elbereth and Sart, and would happily lynch Gears or [ Striker ]. I'm going with mr EZ because it seems like several others want to lynch him but don't think there will be enough votes to do it. I don't really know where to go from here. I don't think TJ is suspicious enough to lynch just yet. I also don't think we should lynch Ventyl.

Also, does anyone have a Votecount? @Straw

TJ (5) - Magestar, Ventyl, Elbereth, Eternum, Araris
Gears (3) - Striker, Orlok, TJ
Striker (3) - Sart, Matrim, Joe

[theTruthshaper]

36 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Well, I don't have a lot to say. I trust Orlok, Araris, Elbereth and Sart, and would happily lynch Gears or [ Striker ]. I'm going with mr EZ because it seems like several others want to lynch him but don't think there will be enough votes to do it. I don't really know where to go from here. I don't think TJ is suspicious enough to lynch just yet. I also don't think we should lynch Ventyl.

Also, does anyone have a Votecount? @Straw

Hmm, can you tell us why you trust Orlok, Aranis, Sart, Elbereth? Why do you think we should not lynch Ventyl?

[Magestar he/him]

Geez, y'all are going absolutely crazy.   

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

• Magestar: I'm unsure of him. He said it doesn't feel like I was the same as I was in LG66, but yet he claims I'm behaving odd. He had claimed the same thing in LG66 too, that my tone and my posts are odd. Why would it indicate that I'm an elim this time, Mage? 

Because you were village last time and your tone now is different from when you were village?  IIRC, I had a pretty village read on you all game LG66, except for paranoia near the end.    

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

Magestar: Weird to say they feel compelled to vote because of a poke. I feel like a villager shouldn't need to be poked to play. I would like him to answer the question I previously posed. Null.

Response above.    And I was saying that's how I act regardless of the game I'm in.

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

This! Why did everyone brush it off? Am I the only one seeing it as an attempt to bait out a claim from Elbereth? Why no worries that elims might read and attempt to block? Even if they don't, everyone would know Elbereth's role or the lack of it after his attempt to Squire as it seems he intended to reveal if it was success or not. As for him asking to be alignment scanned, someone already deduced he might be an Edgedancer, so he could make himself untargetable and waste a charge of the alignment-scanner. 

We are allowing him to Squire, but if he's an elim KR like I suspect he is, we're allowing him to Squire another elim before dying. Why aren't we considering this?  

I think the problem, in my mind, is that Ventyl's actions seem so out of the park weird that I can't see an Elim team allowing them to do them.  I guess that was the case in LG67 as well... I don't know.   I could see Ventyl being an Elim; the problem is I'd assume that a decent elim team wouldn't let Ventyl continue to act like this. 

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

Ventyl:  The main problem I have with Ventyl is he's so adamant to prove his role, but not his alignment. He did the exact same thing in LG66, where he swore he was a Leecher and even wanted to waste his actions to prove that he was one, but the fact that he's telling the truth about his role does not translate to his claim as a villager. Here are a few warning signs I saw from his posts:

• Makes a claim despite being warned not to. Gives no good reason as to why he claimed. 
• Main question to Ventyl supporters: Why would he intentionally put himself in harms way from the elims by claiming? What could he possibly gain?
• His willingness to Squire someone to prove his role (again, role, not alignment) is suspicious. He seems to have no qualms of Squiring an elim by chance.

Ah.  See, this isn't wrong.  This is exactly what Ventyl did in LG67.  The question for me is whether it's how they act as an Elim, or just how they act.  I'll move my vote to Ventyl for now, just to stir things up and lower the lead on TJ.  I might move it back before the end of the cycle.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

36 minutes ago, The_Truthwatcher said:

Hmm, can you tell us why you trust Orlok, Aranis, Sart, Elbereth? Why do you think we should not lynch Ventyl?

Not really. I didn't actually take notes as I'm on a work computer. Just kinda wrote in the post box while I read through the thread. Ventyl I'm more sure about, simply because everything they've done sounds very villagey to me.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

feeling very tempted to throw in the towel and concede this challenge to wilson. v tough to engage as i normally would, and not enjoying this so much. that said, gut reads alone is that tj shade not elim but need to iso their posts and reread later. not too attached to gears lynch. based on game balance unsure re ventyl. key here for me is their assumption that most people are radiant. would imagine less than half are, based on recollection of lg13. as elim team lg13 we had two radiants and three vanillas, i think. if hes elim, would know this, and not make such a claim.

will reevaluate game later, possibly after drink or three. makes this torture slightly more bearable and less foreign and unnatural.

[Straw he/him]

9 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Edit: @Straw, could I have a vote count?

8 hours ago, The_Truthwatcher said:

@Straw can we get a vote count?

StrikerEZ (4): A Joe in the Bush, Gears, Matrim's Dice, Sart
TJ Shade (4): Araris Valerian, Elbereth, Eternum, Ventyl
Gears (3): Orlok Tsubodai, StrikerEZ, TJ Shade
Ventyl (1): Magestar

[theTruthshaper]

7 minutes ago, Straw said:

StrikerEZ (4): A Joe in the Bush, Gears, Matrim's Dice, Sart
TJ Shade (4): Araris Valerian, Elbereth, Eternum, Ventyl
Gears (3): Orlok Tsubodai, StrikerEZ, TJ Shade
Ventyl (1): Magestar

I don't think that Gears is voting on StrikerEZ.

[Straw he/him]

56 minutes ago, The_Truthwatcher said:

I don't think that Gears is voting on StrikerEZ.

I don't think Gears ever changed their vote from this post:

Edited July 3, 2020 by Straw

[Lahilt he/him]

I am kind of worried that TJ Shade is village and the Elims are trying  to get a mislynch on them to remove a heavy analysis player early from the game. Although I have a few ideas why they could be Elim... Unsure.

[|TJ| he/him]

Did not realize there was a vote on Striker by Gears. 

9 minutes ago, Lahilt said:

I am kind of worried that TJ Shade is village and the Elims are trying  to get a mislynch on them to remove a heavy analysis player early from the game.

Yes, all I'm asking is to give me a chance to prove myself. I've told this time and again I'm bad at D1 analysis. I ask you not to lynch me for my choices in the first cycle. I'll come through in the later cycles if I live for that long. 

[Gears]

3 hours remain. The vote is split between Striker and TJ. Does anyone have any last minute defenses? @StrikerEZ @TJ Shade

[|TJ| he/him]

18 minutes ago, Gears said:

3 hours remain. The vote is split between Striker and TJ. Does anyone have any last minute defenses? @StrikerEZ @TJ Shade

Striker has one more vote on him. Besides, are you seriously expecting things to remain the same after the frenetic cycle-end voting in the last game? I think I've said what I needed to say, unless some questions come my way. There are so many people left to vote anyway. 

[theTruthshaper]

Rust and ruin, the shard ate two of my posts.

I do think that we should not lynch TJ or Striker right now. Both of the lynch trains seem to be very flimsy. I mean even after  you all have told me that Aranis is perfectly in character I sill think it is more likely that they are an elim than either if TJ or Striker. This is most likely because their playstyle rubs me the wrong way.

I will try to post a lynch train analysis post. I really think that if there are no other options than TJ or Striker, we should kill Ventyl. 

 

 

[Gears]

Just now, TJ Shade said:

Striker has one more vote on him. Besides, are you seriously expecting things to remain the same after the frenetic cycle-end voting in the last game? I think I've said what I needed to say, unless some questions come my way. There are so many people left to vote anyway. 

Ah. I missed that somehow. You're right, of course, but it's better to say your piece earlier. You have indeed said enough, but Striker has not. I hope he gets on before rollover.

[Mat he/him]

I am continually astonished by the possibilities allowed by mobile data. As such, I am here from mobile, driving through the states.

I only skimmed the posts since last night, but it seems like TJ and Striker are pulling ahead. I don’t really got that strong of a read on either, I’ll reiterate I’d rather lynch Striker, but I suppose I’d be fine with a tie. Last night I probably wouldn’t have been, but I have really liked El’s posts and her playstyle/tone this game, and her posts on TJ have swayed me enough to see a tie as a viable option. It would be interesting to see what vote manip would be used and what info we could get from that. I’ll leave my vote on Striker.

Surprised and glad to be here 

[Straw he/him]

15 minutes ago, The_Truthwatcher said:

I will try to post a lynch train analysis post. I really think that if there are no other options than TJ or Striker, we should kill Ventyl. 

If this is a vote, please make it red.

[Magestar he/him]

Could someone explain the reasoning behind the Striker lynch to me?  I kinda get the TJ and Ventyl suspicions, but the Striker lynch I'm not really understanding.

edit:  And does anyone care about lynching Ventyl, or should I just move my vote.   

Edited July 3, 2020 by Magestar

[Mat he/him]

4 minutes ago, Magestar said:

Could someone explain the reasoning behind the Striker lynch to me?  I kinda get the TJ and Ventyl suspicions, but the Striker lynch I'm not really understanding.

It’s scary because I’m voting him and I don’t know exactly  I’ll try though. But @Sart probably could explain this better.

At the beginning of a cycle he voted on Gears, a fact that I find random. He also asked weirdly specific questions about complicated Radiant mechanics. Like I’ve said multiple times none of my elim reads are better than ‘mild’ but I think TJ is more likely to be good so my vote lands on Striker.

[|TJ| he/him]

9 minutes ago, Magestar said:

Could someone explain the reasoning behind the Striker lynch to me?  I kinda get the TJ and Ventyl suspicions, but the Striker lynch I'm not really understanding.

Sart voted on him thinking he was distracting us from lynch discussion by discussing whether Adhesion is better than Transportation. Matrim basically agreed with Sart's points. At this point there was a train between me, and Striker. Ventyl had one vote on him I think. So Gears preferred Striker over me. Joe's reason is also basically the same. Mine is I self-preservation. Yeah, I don't like it either, but a man's gotta live. I would move my vote to Ventyl but I'm in a precarious position. I'd like at least one more vote on him for me to move, as you've told you're likely to shift your vote back on me. 

Edit: Ninja'd by Mat

Edited July 3, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Lahilt he/him]

Ventyl I am going to put my vote on Ventyl I think there is enough reason to lynch them and we will probably have to do it at some point anyway.

[|TJ| he/him]

Brilliant. I did not know many players other than me felt the same about Ventyl. Striker

[Orlok Tsubodai]

will get to analysis in c. 30 mins. as said before, key to ventyl lynch is whether we think their assumption re most players being kr is genuine. cant understand how they would arrive at this conclusion @Ventyl (cant uncapitalise mentions ) as squiring mechanic demonstrates need for large number of non-kr in game.

[Magestar he/him]

Well, at least in my opinion, the stuff Ventyl has done is a lot weirder than focusing on specific game mechanics... which is all I'm seeing for suspicion of Striker.    

5 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

will get to analysis in c. 30 mins. as said before, key to ventyl lynch is whether we think their assumption re most players being kr is genuine. cant understand how they would arrive at this conclusion @Ventyl (cant uncapitalise mentions ) as squiring mechanic demonstrates need for large number of non-kr in game.

Well, if Ventyl is in fact an Elim, a large number of Elim KR could indicate larger numbers of KR in the game overall.  But that's purely speculation.  I'm also skeptical of the idea that there's a large number of KR in the game, for similar reasons.

Edited July 3, 2020 by Magestar

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

 

5 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Ventyl:  The main problem I have with Ventyl is he's so adamant to prove his role, but not his alignment. He did the exact same thing in LG66, where he swore he was a Leecher and even wanted to waste his actions to prove that he was one, but the fact that he's telling the truth about his role does not translate to his claim as a villager. Here are a few warning signs I saw from his posts:

• Makes a claim despite being warned not to. Gives no good reason as to why he claimed. 
• Main question to Ventyl supporters: Why would he intentionally put himself in harms way from the elims by claiming? What could he possibly gain?
• His willingness to Squire someone to prove his role (again, role, not alignment) is suspicious. He seems to have no qualms of Squiring an elim by chance.

This! Why did everyone brush it off? Am I the only one seeing it as an attempt to bait out a claim from Elbereth? Why no worries that elims might read and attempt to block? Even if they don't, everyone would know Elbereth's role or the lack of it after his attempt to Squire as it seems he intended to reveal if it was success or not. As for him asking to be alignment scanned, someone already deduced he might be an Edgedancer, so he could make himself untargetable and waste a charge of the alignment-scanner. 

We are allowing him to Squire, but if he's an elim KR like I suspect he is, we're allowing him to Squire another elim before dying. Why aren't we considering this?  

This point was mentioned two times in the very first page. Why do you feel the need to mention it again? Strong elim. Ventyl has 0 votes on him at the moment, so he's likely not getting lynched. But I'm asking y'all to consider all these points. Maybe you'll believe that this post is an honest opinion when I die and flip village. 

Your vote was the third on me. Mage and Ventyl voted had already voted before. But again, don't you see the problem? None of the other players have gained any votes. Ventyl train has completely fallen off. I'm now wholly the main lynch candidate here. I'd imagine some of my elim teammates would have dropped votes on either Striker or Gears at the moment as an alternate, if I was an elim. 

Alright, first off, I have stated a few times that I’m completely fine with somebody role scanning me, I’ll be Squiring during the night turn. So even if I had an ability that could let me avoid it, I won’t be able to. If the person I squire turns out to be a Radiant, then I will try again, but whoever scans me will be able to scan me this night turn, that is, if I live or not. 

Now, I’ll bullet my response in the same order as yours:

• Honestly, I could care less about being told not to roleclaim. My playstyle whenever I have had a role, and no matter what alignment I’ve been has always been me trying to get information about everybody. It’s usually what gets be killed though... Anyways, considering as PM’s weren’t opened yet I decided to not only try to get a role trade later on in the game, but also generate lots of discussion. Which I generally believe is good for the village, even if I’m not that great at doing it. Though in this case, I actually did make quite a lot, even if I’m guaranteed to die in the next few cycles, if not this one. Although I’d rather not die, considering I have a pretty good role, I think. I’m completely fine with dying as long as whoever I squire isn’t an elim and gets my more useful Surge.
• What could I gain? Information, depending on the people who have strongly pushed for my lynch, such as yourself, when I flip village we’ll have a clearer lynch target. Because, if the elims knew that there was a claimed Radiant, why wouldn’t they want to get a mislynch on them, and save their kill? I’m pretty sure at least one of the elims would vote for me, considering they wouldn’t want to risk having to use their kill on somebody who could possible have Abrasion. This is the main reason for my suspicions of you, and also as a few others have pointed out, you seem much different than in QF45.
• The reason I’m adamant about proving my role, is that it’s easier to do that than to prove my alignment. The only sure fire way to do that is to get alignment scanned. And also, I am worried about squiring an elim. Even though only one of my roles would actually be useful for them, I’m sure they already have it. Maybe not in the same order, but another order that has it. 

Now, in the last bit of your post, I get a strong village read. You say that if your were an elim, your teammates would drop votes on Striker or Gears. What’s funny is that after this post, people did drop more votes on Striker at least. This seems like an easy elim way to frame an already up for lynch villager. Because of this I’m no longer inclined to think of you so much as an elim. You still have my suspicions TJ Shade, but I’d much rather vote on some body who voted on Striker after you made the post above. Such as A Joe in the Bush, who is the first one to vote on Striker about an hour after your post. This leaves time for him to discuss the idea of framing you in the elim doc. 

In the post that he votes on Striker he also says that he’d be fine with voting on Gears too... Seems a little suspicious when you realize that TJ had said that the elims would probably vote on those two to save him? To be fair, I could be reading way to much into this, but I think this has some merit to it.