Long Game 65: Dancing through Life

[xinoehp512 he/him]

Classes were out for the day, and people were mingling and talking in the open area and pathways around the university. Maern stood with notepad in hand, watching and listening. Every so often he wrote something down that he found noteworthy, then moved on.

This is crazy, he thought to himself every once in a while. What in the world do I think I'm going to get out of this? But he didn't stop. Fruitless as his investigations might wind up being, they were all he could do. And with the imminent threat of the Fae hanging over his shoulder, he needed to feel like he was doing something. Anything.

As the minutes passed, people began to disperse, going back to their respective lodgings to work on schoolwork, eat, or take a nap. Maern sighed and sat down on a bench, leafing through the notes he'd taken. Like he'd expected, they weren't particularly helpful.

Stories make this sound so easy, he thought glumly. So far, he’d found… well, nothing, really. And why would he have? It was in the best interests of the skindancers to keep a low profile, to try and blend in as much as possible. Even if they did make mistakes, he was hardly experienced enough to catch them.

Hopefully I'll get better with time, he thought with a sigh, standing up and starting the journey back to the Windy Tower.

----

I need to remind myself to vote before I run out of time tomorrow... I haven't even started player analysis yet. To be honest, I think a player by player list would be a bit too much for me- I've only barely branched out into those recently, and this game has way more players and posts than I'm used to.

I still don't really see anything in thread for this turn that really compels a response from myself, so I guess I'll try and be helpful again.

Player Post count		1.1	1.2	2.1	Total
1. @Haelbarde(Edema Ruh)	Ruh	3	12	3	18
2. @Elandera (Noble)	Noble	8	2	2	12
3. @Burnt Spaghett(Commoner)	Commoner	7	6	5	18
4. @DeTess(Commoner)	Commoner	7	3	8	18
5. @Elkanah (Edema Ruh)	Ruh	12	5	5	22
6. @Straw(Commoner)	Commoner	10	4	13	27
7. @xinoehp512 (Commoner)	Commoner	8	5	5	18
8. @Lord_Silberfarben(Commoner)	Commoner	8	2	3	13
9. @Coda (Noble)	Noble	3	1	1	5
10. @Karnage (Noble)	Noble	6	3	5	14
11. @Hemalurgic Headshot (Noble)	Noble	2	Insane	Insane	2
12. @StrikerEZ (Edema Ruh)	Ruh	5	2	2	9
13. @Lumgol (Noble)	Noble	2	0	3	5
14. @Experience (Commoner)	Commoner	3	2	1	6
15. @Devotary of Spontaneity (Noble)	Noble	7	4	3	14
16. @CadCom (Edema Ruh)	Ruh	2	0	1	3
17. @Sart (Commoner)	Commoner	1	2	Insane	3
18. @Furamirionind (Edema Ruh)	Ruh	4	2	4	10
19. @Zillah (Commoner)	Commoner	4	3	1	8
20. @Araris Valerian (Noble)	Noble	2	1	4	7
21. @Rathmaskal(Commoner)	Commoner	1	0	1	2
22. @STINK (Commoner)	Commoner	1	2	2	5
23. @Kynedath (Edema Ruh)	Ruh	4	4	0	8
24. @Walin (Commoner)	Commoner	1	1	1	3
25. @GreenRover (Noble)	Noble	1	1	1	3
26. @Young Bard (Commoner)	Commoner	0	1	3	4
27. @TheMightyLopen (Noble)	Noble	6	3	3	12
	Total	118	71	80
	Average	4.37037037	2.730769231	3.2
	Nobles	37	15	22
	Average	4.111111111	1.875	2.75
	Commoners	51	31	43
	Average	4.25	2.583333333	3.909090909
	Edema Ruh	30	25	15
	Average	5	4.166666667	2.5

Cycle 1.2 was a bit of a slump, but things picked up a little in cycle 2.1. Was that because people are more worried about posting enough to cover tuition on the first post of the cycle, I wonder? Perhaps it was simply discussion dying out after all the easiest stuff was cleared out in the first turn. I know analysis has certainly gotten harder for me.  

I’m curious to see how the post count will shake up for this cycle, now that discussion has started to venture into player and alignment guesses. I guess it doesn’t particularly matter, though.

If I had to venture a guess with my current state of mind, I would put it in the sub-radar folks. It’s unlikely they’re all there, but more than likely a few of them are. I know that when I am an eliminator, I often hold back in the thread to avoid tripping up my more experienced partners.

Edited May 6, 2020 by xinoehp512

[Straw he/him]

@xinoehp512 I've also been keeping track of stats. Here's my sheet:

			Term One		Term Two
Player	Total Posts	Average Posts	Month One	Month Two	Month One	Month Two
Araris Valerian	7	1.75	2	1	4	0
Burnt Spaghetti	23	5.75	7	7	5	2
CadCom	4	1	2	0	1	1
Coda	6	1.5	3	1	1	1
DeTess	20	5	7	3	8	2
Devotary	15	3.75	7	4	3	1
Elandera	12	3	8	1	2	1
Elkanah	24	6	12	6	5	1
Experience	6	1.5	3	2	1	0
Furamirionind	14	3.5	4	2	4	4
GreenRover	3	0.75	1	1	1	0
Haelbarde	18	4.5	3	12	3	0
Headshot	2	2	2	0	0	0
Karnage	16	4	6	3	5	2
Kynedath	9	2.25	4	4	0	1
Lord_Silber	18	4.5	8	2	3	5
Lumgol	5	1.67	2	0	3	0
Rathmaskal	3	0.75	1	0	1	1
Sart	3	1.5	1	2	0	0
STINK	8	2	1	3	2	2
Straw	31	7.75	10	4	13	4
StrikerEZ	10	2.5	5	3	2	0
TheMighyLopen	13	3.25	6	3	3	1
Walin	3	0.75	1	1	1	0
xinoehp512	20	5	8	5	5	2
Young Bard	6	1.5	0	1	3	2
Zillah	10	2.5	4	3	1	2
GM Posts	30	7.5	8	9	10	3
Total	337	84.25	126	83	90	38

[STINK he/him]

I have not been keeping track of stats, below is my table:

[Karnage]

The boy looking a bit uncertain with himself stepped forward a bit saying, "Just give me all the valuables you have. I also want your jacket.". With each item that he listed that he wanted his makeshift knife wavered a bit.

"Okay, okay. Just calm down. I will give you what you asked for, but first tell me why you are in need of what I have. Can you not just give yourself to good and honest work? Why prey on the unarmed?" Lasko said as he slowly pulled the hat off his head.

"No, no, no! You don't get it. this is the only way that I could possibly earn money. Nobody is gonna give me any in exchange for work. Look at me! I look like a worthless street rat. Now get on with it,  need to go." His voice began almost as if he were about to cry then it gradually became firmer, he ended his statement by taking a step further again wagging his waving his knife threateningly.

Lasko quickly dropped his hat, and reached to take off his jacket. "Now, hold on a minute. You don't have to go down this route, why don't you let me help you."

---

Okay... thats interesting, Elandera seems like they just dropped off the map by the look at the post stats. Almost as if they wanted to be come unnoticed. Hmmm. @ElanderaElandera care to explain? Walin only one post per month(straws analysis). Would you care to use this months post to explain? @Walin

Edited May 7, 2020 by Karnage

[Elkanah he/him]

Well played Straw. You are in the lead for now, but I am coming for you. I am surprised that the GM's are beating me in post count, but I will attribute that to there being two of them contributing. Even so, they are almost winning in most posts and running a game at the same time. That is pretty impressive. They are also the most consistent from cycle to cycle. 

I suppose I have sufficiently poked Rathmaskal. But I am going to leave one vote for now until I have a better place to put it. 

6 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Haha, same. I know have 15 EP filed in the same field and I still haven't been elevated... And while I still don't know if my field is super contested or if I got unlucky, I really did think it was going to be less contested xD. Granted, if I can scramble up enough money to stay in the University, this does mean my progression will be a lot more efficient than others that did get elevated... So idk if it's a good thing or not.

What makes you say this? Each field gets significantly better if you try to specialize in it. I feel like people who feel like min/maxing this game might go into 2/3 fields, but other than those people, I feel like generally people would just go into one.

 

5 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Yes, but I really needed at least 1 elevation before I could stop going to the University. That way I could actually do stuff. As it is, I don't think I'm making it into the University next turn... 

I absolutely understand that feeling. At the very least, you have good odds of being elevated despite not going to the university. That's what ended up happening for me. It is a little rough not attending the university every turn. I will still have some trouble going next term and I am second. in number of posts this game. *grumble in straw's direction*

All I can recommend at this point is a lot of practice at the Eolian and living in the Grey Man so you can get the practice twice. I do not know how good your musical score is, but depending on what you got, it might be wise to practice a few times.

Oh, to answer your question: I am guessing that people going into multiple fields are being elevated at a faster pace because it is easier to get lucky in one of five fields than it is to get lucky in one of one field. Also, the linguistics field pairs really well with almost any other field so whoever is elevated there will probably look to fill out their suite with other neat abilities. I imagine it like choosing between being a mistborn or a twin born. A mistborn has a set of really cool powerful abilities that are well defined. A twin born has fewer abilities, but the combination creates something unique that can be leveraged in a way no one would see coming. I will see if I can come up with with an example from this rule set later. 

[xinoehp512 he/him]

2 hours ago, Straw said:

@xinoehp512 I've also been keeping track of stats. Here's my sheet:

 

			Term One		Term Two
Player	Total Posts	Average Posts	Month One	Month Two	Month One	Month Two
Araris Valerian	7	1.75	2	1	4	0
Burnt Spaghetti	23	5.75	7	7	5	2
CadCom	4	1	2	0	1	1
Coda	6	1.5	3	1	1	1
DeTess	20	5	7	3	8	2
Devotary	15	3.75	7	4	3	1
Elandera	12	3	8	1	2	1
Elkanah	24	6	12	6	5	1
Experience	6	1.5	3	2	1	0
Furamirionind	14	3.5	4	2	4	4
GreenRover	3	0.75	1	1	1	0
Haelbarde	18	4.5	3	12	3	0
Headshot	2	2	2	0	0	0
Karnage	16	4	6	3	5	2
Kynedath	9	2.25	4	4	0	1
Lord_Silber	18	4.5	8	2	3	5
Lumgol	5	1.67	2	0	3	0
Rathmaskal	3	0.75	1	0	1	1
Sart	3	1.5	1	2	0	0
STINK	8	2	1	3	2	2
Straw	31	7.75	10	4	13	4
StrikerEZ	10	2.5	5	3	2	0
TheMighyLopen	13	3.25	6	3	3	1
Walin	3	0.75	1	1	1	0
xinoehp512	20	5	8	5	5	2
Young Bard	6	1.5	0	1	3	2
Zillah	10	2.5	4	3	1	2
GM Posts	30	7.5	8	9	10	3
Total	337	84.25	126	83	90	38

Oh dear, I'm redundant.  Looks like I've probably made a few mistakes, too... guess I'll have to review the threads again.

*returns* Perhaps a bit of redundancy is a good thing. Since we have more or less the same totals for Term One, Month One and Term Two, Month One, I think it's safe to assume those totals are correct. But, while Burnt Spaghetti did have seven posts and not six in Term One, Month Two, and Striker had three and not two, I'm feeling quite certain that Elandera had two posts and not one, and Elkanah five and not six. Not that that changes a whole lot, of course, but at least we're that little bit much more accurate now.  

And now, I suppose, for votes. I've looked through the least active people, and the most suspicious (for this reason) (in my opinion) are Walin (edit:ninja'd with a vote), Young Bard, Experience, and STINK. I'm also suspicious of Lumgol, though somewhat less than the others because they are a Noble and therefore have that as a reason not to post as much. Green Rover and Coda are lower down on my suspicion list for the same reason, in addition to the fact that the former is a new player and the latter has been roleblocked for the past few turns. Cadcom... puzzles me. As an Edema Ruh, he shouldn't be able to post as little as he is and stay in school- unless he has the Talent Pipes. @CadCom, care to explain?

Edited May 7, 2020 by xinoehp512

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Before I continue with analysis, RP!

---

Leo cursed his luck. Things had started so well for him here, but the last few weeks had been some of the worst he could remember. More and more students were losing their minds, he'd lost a chunk of his stipend he was receiving each month at a gambling house, and when he'd gone to the Eolian to try to relax, he'd gotten booed off the stage almost immediately. Now it seemed some of his fellow students were pointing fingers at him, saying he might be a Skindancer of all things!

I mean, I know my singing is bad, but I'm not sure I've ever had someone accuse me of being inhuman for it! Well, hopefully my luck will change soon. Maybe I used all of my bad luck at that cursed gambling house.

He tried to focus on class, but found it increasingly difficult with everything that was going on. The teacher was saying something about "everything had a true Name" or whatever. Leo really didn't get it, so let his mind wander to other subjects. Fellow students, Skindancers, how to arrange his leftover coin to look like more than it was. The usual things.

Ah, maybe I should just go home early and count my money. That always puts me at ease, he thought with a look of satisfaction on his face. And tomorrow, I'll try to start fresh and not worry too much about those Skindancers. After all, I very much doubt I could do anything about creatures like that myself.

---

GM's could we get a vote count?

[Elandera she/her]

1 hour ago, Karnage said:

Elandera seems like they just dropped off the map by the look at the post stats. Almost as if they wanted to be come unnoticed. Hmmm. @ElanderaElandera care to explain?

That was not my intention. I have a lot of other stuff going on atm in life (trying to build a website that's giving me a ton of trouble, D&D campaigns, and work). I've been skimming, but don't have a ton of time for much more in-depth analysis or even RP. I'm DMing a campaign right now, but I'll jump on afterwards to share more of my thoughts.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Okay, sorry for the delay. I was studying for a final today and it was my little brother's birthday. (Happy birthday @Ventyl!)

Anyway, I really think it's time I start trying to figure out who I think are Skindancers. I don't know why, but something about Lopen has been setting alarm bells for me. The tone just feels off to me. If I had the time to dedicate to a full reread of everything I would try and go through and find out why. However, I don't really have that time right now, so I just have to rely on my gut. 

As for my second vote, I'm going to use it on Straw. I'm still not a huge fan of how much he was trying to keep us from spreading out our votes last turn. He's also been putting in a lot of work on something that isn't necessarily super helpful for the village. In my experience, players who put a lot of work in on something that isn't necessarily alignment indicative (such as post counts, mentions of other players in posts, etc.) tend to be elims. They're trying to show that they're putting effort into the game without necessarily doing something super helpful. (Also, Straw, don't take this personally in case you're actually a villager. This is how I caught an elim once in the AG, so I've started picking up on it in other games too. I do really appreciate your work despite all this! )

~

Ryykal was tapping his foot as he worked on an assignment for his arithmetic class. The numbers were blurring together in his head as he listened to a piece he was practicing in his head. He'd been spending a lot of time practicing at the Eolian. There was a big performance coming up soon, and he wanted to impress those at the Eolian with this performance. For a moment, he considered whether or not he should focus more on his studies. If I don't get the talent pipes, he thought to himself, I might not even get to go to the University anymore. So for now, he continued singing in his head while trying to do homework.

The time caught up to him eventually when he realized he was almost late for a class and made his way out of the house. On the way, he thought about how there was yet another student from the University who had gone insane. For a moment he thought he heard footsteps following him. It almost reminded him of the piece he'd been practicing...

He quickly turned around in the middle of the street, glancing around frantically. A few people passing by gave him weird looks and walked around him. I must've imagined it, he thought to himself. All the stress from school and students going insane is getting to me. That's all....

[Walin he/him]

Hmmmm. So it appears I haven't been good at being active. I'll be busy tomorrow, so I'll be trying to get all of my posts in right now. As far as analysis goes, I'll defer to the better judgement of other players; I don't have any good gut reads seeing as (uh oh) I haven't read the entirety of each turn, and for the posts that I read I just forget about who posted what, and eventually, what was posted at all. Looks like votes are still at very low number, which we'll need to increase. The likelihood that a Skindancer will fail on any of their sabotages is getting better, because more people have been elevated, and more nobles may have obtained protection. But that doesn't do any good if we don't do anything in return to retaliate against the Skindancers; abilities are a good way to do so, though we can add the lynch to all of that.

------------

Lin Wa sat down on a stool. He had been thinking about all of this stuff, but not very hard. Honestly, he needed to write everything down. However, he never really tried to. Being too distracted by his studies, or too tired to do so, or just lacking a writing utensil, he had never managed to record all he had learned about this Skindancer issue. And because of that, he started to forget about it. There were Skindancers, who were disguised as students. They were out to sabotage the University. Certain people...were suspicious (of others), and if you believed hearsay, other certain people...were suspicious (in their behavior). But despite hearing everyone's reasonings, and even agreeing with them, by the end of the day he forgot about whom, exactly, they were suspicious of being a Skindancer. It was time to just strap a notebook to his wrist and keep something to write with on him at all times.

Edited May 7, 2020 by Walin
I didn't change anything in the post; I just realized that it's ironic that I talked about lynch votes without voting.

[Coffeecat she/her]

Lord, once more in his cold and windy(Nonetheless comfortable) bedroom, pondered who deserved his attention this month.

Furamirionind was out of the question. The poor student had obviously been trying to make everyone’s work easier. If it personally affronted him was not important.

The Ruh would be really struggling, he thought, With poor families and not as much time to study while they won their money.

So he had written a letter to the master apologizing for his ‘misunderstanding’ and explaining that this Furamirionind did not actually deserve his complaints.

 

And so he had no one complain about this term. He would get no tuition lowering.

 

Now that he thought about it, it was very curious that the masters encouraged poor students to complain as much as they could.

No wonder it made them seem like they were looking for a fight. It added to every Noble's view on the plebeians as bickering and rebellious.

 

Why would the masters encourage that sort of division?

Perhaps it was to make students more competitive and willing to prove themselves better.

 

And then Lord realized he had fallen for the same tactic.

Had he not complained on Araris, and Furamirionind after?

Just because he wanted to lower his tuition.

None of their ‘offenses’ were enough to make them deserve a lashing or an expulsion.

 

 

Edited May 7, 2020 by Lord_Silberfarben

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Sorry again for my lack of activity this cycle. I have 200 exams to grade by midnight tomorrow, so this game is on my back burner until then.

I will try and come up with an informed vote at least before the cycle ends.

[CadCom he/him]

3 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

... Cadcom... puzzles me. As an Edema Ruh, he shouldn't be able to post as little as he is and stay in school- unless he has the Talent Pipes. @CadCom, care to explain?

Yes, absolutely. I have not been in school. I think we app started out in school, term 1 month 1 so I put in for some EP points at that time, and then I was in Imre. Then I didnt go to school for term 2. A bit of misunderstanding the rules partially accounted for that reason, but I'm once again in the Imre this month. Next semester I'm hoping to attend school if everything works out for me though. 

[Furamirionind]

6 hours ago, Lord_Silberfarben said:

“Oh look at you!”

“I am sorry,” said Lord, “I did not realize a simple complaint could have such effects.”

“Please accept my apologies, your pamphlet only…”

“I have been struggling with my studies, and now everyone seems to think I am some sort of super student.”

“I would thank you if in the future you would at least ask the participants before you release a pamphlet with their name.”

 

@Furamirionind

Thanks for telling me I was doing something dumb, I did not realize you were a Ruh.

Since it was only RP, I retire my vote on you.

 

Oh, you're cool. I have absolutely no problem with people voting on me from RP. I, of course, will attempt to respond with RP though to (de?)escalate the situation. : )

[Elandera she/her]

"Three Cs of sympathy... three Cs of sympathy...." Athdara sat in a secluded nook of the tombs and muttered that one line to herself over and over again, unable to actually remember what they were. "Three Cs of sympathy are.... conservation, cogna--"

She threw down her pencil in frustration after what felt like hours of running up against a brick wall in her mind.

Why can't I remember the three Cs? Athdara threw down her pencil, frustrated with her lack of progress in Sympathy. Two terms and I can't remember something so simple!

If she couldn't show some competence, she'd never get elevated. She may even get expelled! What if her tuition was raised to high because she was too inept? With her luck, that would be the Master Sympathist's question during her admissions interviews.

Giving up trying to remember, she pulled one of the books closer, careful to avoid bending any pages. The last the she needed was to anger the Master Archivist, too.

"The basic laws of sympathy," she read aloud, "are the Doctrine of Correspondence, the Principle of Consanguinity, and the Law of Conservation."

She took up a new mantra, trying to embed those words in her mind. "Correspondence, Consanguinity, Conservation. Correspondence, Consanguinity, Conservation. Correspondence, Consanguinity, Conservation."

Athdara shut the book and set it aside again, returning to her notes. 

"Correspondence... the more similar something is, the stronger the sympathetic link. Consanguinity... root of the word means descended from the same ancestor, so... the descendant. No. The... a descendant is a part of the ancestor. Piece! A piece of something represents the whole. And Conservation, energy just is. It can't be created or destroyed, or lost or found."

She signed in relief, sitting back in her chair. Now, if only she could retain all of that knowledge. 

---

As for my game thoughts, I think if anyone is able, they should probably start taking out hits on people. We need to learn some alignments if we are going to be able to connect the dots between players. If it's done through contract, it may also help some of the Ruh afford to keep going to the university. We need some people there to gain abilities that will draw out the Skindancers a little better.

I haven't been able to really read through the thread much to get reads, so I'll have to pass on doing any player analysis at the moment beyond basic gut reads. Karnage and Lord Sil both feel like honest villagers at the moment. And I don't have any elim reads. Everyone else is pretty neutral. 

So long as I stay out of the crockery, I'll try to take some time tomorrow to really read things and do some breakdowns. Again, I'm sorry I haven't been super involved so far.

[DeTess she/her]

8 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

Cadcom... puzzles me. As an Edema Ruh, he shouldn't be able to post as little as he is and stay in school- unless he has the Talent Pipes. @CadCom, care to explain?

Cadcom shouldn't have to answer this. He might very well have gone for very early talent pipes, but given that that's an item that can be stolen, he shouldn't be forced into revealing whether he has them or not. It makes me a bit suspicious of Xinoehp that he went fishing for this info.

I've found a bit of time to do stuff, so I'll do a quick analysis on our Edema Ruh

strikerEZ

There has been a pretty major shift in Striker's playstyle. Even after reading through his term 1 posts several times, I still don't really feel like lynching him, which is highly unusual.

There have been some low-key suspicious things, like trying to organize which social classes go in which fields, but I can see all that coming from a village standpoint as well. For the rest, I'm actually getting a reasonably good gut read on him right now. He seems to be trying to solve the game, even before Araris gave everyone a kick up the behind to start playing things seriously.

Kynedath

Kynedath is still in the same position they were in before, with a lot of RP, and barely any game-thoughts. I expect better from them, and it's making me suspicious as this could be an elim!kynedtah attempt to try and fly under the radar.

Cadcom

He's not had that much activity, but the early activity he did have felt very village to me. His statement of being lost felt genuine, and that should be far less of a problem if you have an elim team backing you up. I also liked that he brought up the importance of looking for skindancers over secondary concerns like elevations rather early, even fi he didn't force the issue around votes toom mucha t the time.

Haelbarde

So Hael has got a lot of posts, both RP and game-talk. And a lot of his game-talk made sense. But just about all of it is things along the lines of 'be careful about what info you share' and 'Edema Ruh life is hard life' and 'I oppose using that linguistics analysis feature in a way that involves majoring'. None of these are bad things to say, but it means that Haelbarde hasn't actually done as much to help solve the game as his post count might suggest, and this is making me a bit wary of him.

Elkanah

has Been talking a lot, far more thane ven Haelbarde. Unlike Hael, he's shared some basic reads and other stuff that could be alignment indicative in the long run, which makes me lean a bit more village on them.

Right now, in order from most likely village to most likely elim, I'd rank the Ruh as Cadcom, Striker, Elakanah, Haelbarde, Kynedath

Edited May 7, 2020 by DeTess

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Vote tally:

Lopen(2): DeTess, Striker
Devotary(1): Lopen
Green Rover(1): Lopen
Rathmaskal(1): Elkanah, Elkanah
Walin(2): Straw, Karnage
Elandera(1): Karnage
Bard(1): Xino
Experience(1): Xino
Straw(1): Striker

---

DeTess, you missed Fura. They're also Ruh.

I don't think I have it in me to do analysis on the other 17 players like I did for the Nobles, but here's my current thoughts on them at least.

I agree with DeTess on Striker. His posts have given me villager vibes. Granted, I feel like his vote on me was sorta bandwagon-ish, but it was a second vote on a player, meaning he's not too afraid of drawing attention to himself should he be wrong. Kynedath is another player I agree with DeTess on for the exact reasons he posted. Cadcom and Elkanah however, I don't have any kind of read yet. Haelbarde is another player I've never been able to read. From what I can remember he seems to be playing his normal game. Fura, I'm probably biased against because of their votes on me last Month and their subsequent silence about me this Month. Idk, I kinda thought they'd have something to say considering a few other people have spoken up about me at this point. Feels non-committal or something.

Commoners:

Burnt - Mm, hard for me to read. We've PM'd a bit back and forth, but I don't know if that's ever really helped me get an accurate read on her. I have absolutely been cagey in them because I feel like I usually give you way too much information and regret it later.  She claimed to have spread her EP around and that's why she was elevated twice. I guess I'd read that as more village-y since eliminators usually would have some sort of plan. But she's probably just doing that so we think that very thing! 
DeTess - I'm very conflicted about DeTess. I like the activity, but I feel a bit uneasy about her. Considering she's also been elevated twice, I think it's a good idea to keep a close eye on her.
Straw - I like the activity, and the graphs/stats. I'm not sure it's particularly indicative of alignment though. I've got a bad gut read on him, but I've mislynched Straw a couple times before, so idk.
Xino - I've had a village gut read on Xino since pretty early. I don't remember if it was from something specific or not. Just that their posts sounded village-y. Asking Cadcom that is a bit strange though I have to say.
Lord Silberfarben - No read
Experience - No read
Zillah - No read
Rathmaskal - No read
Stink - Not sure that I've ever had a read on Stink. >>
Walin - No read
Bard - Like Kynedath, is someone I'd expect to have seen more from. I don't remember much of what he's said so far, so I'll definitely want to go back and check his posts.
Sart - Insane

I believe that is everyone. Like I've said before, I'm finding it pretty difficult to get any solid reads. I will try and check out those players I don't have any sort of read on at some point.

[DeTess she/her]

.... I had the feeling I was one short.

furami

Furami has been pretty active in game discussion, and isn't afraid to put forward some suspicions and trusts, though I would like to know why they think I'm village ( @Furamirionind). Overall, I'd like to elan village, but I know they're good enough at being a sneaky wolf that their current actions and activity are not really all that alignment indicative.

 

[Straw he/him]

@Haelbarde hasn't posted so far. I'd be interested to hear what he has to say. Haelbarde. Walin has posted, so I'll retract my vote on him and move it to Coda, who has only posted once every turn except for T1M1.

Lopen(2): DeTess, Striker
Devotary(1): Lopen
Green Rover(1): Lopen
Rathmaskal(1): Elkanah,
Walin(1): Karnage
Elandera(1): Karnage
Bard(1): Xino
Experience(1): Xino
Straw(1): Striker
Haelbarde (1): Straw
Coda (1): Straw

Edited May 7, 2020 by Straw

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

Bryn arrived at the archives, ready to find some books in the area she apparently excelled at. 'Excelled at cheating in it more like' She thought with a smirk.  She stepped inside the unfortunately increasingly more familiar premises that was the Archives.
Smoke? 
That's odd. Not a smell you want there to be in a library. 

Her brow furrowed into a frown as her pace quickened as she went to find someone who worked here. She approached one of the keepers at the desks. "Um, excuse me sir, may I ask a question?"
The man looked up and blinked a few times. must've been pretty immersed in... she glanced at the book in front of him and had to withhold her grimace ugh. Arithmetic history.
"Ah, yes of course. What may I help you with?"

"Oh uh, I was just wondering about the smell..?" She asked

The mans expressions changed, "Ah yes. That.  Some careless students apparently found it fitting to perform volatile experiments in a place full of books. As least that's what we think. Its hard to tell but it was definitely something that was started, not naturally occurring."

"Oof. Any idea who started it, do you know?" With everything that was going on, maybe it was something bigger? It could be useful to know.

The man sighed and shook his head. "We don't know. We're looking into it though, asking anyone who's been around here for any information. Say, you came here recently, asking about 'practical joke' books did you not?" His eyes narrowed "Those wouldn't happen to contain anything about how to start mini fires would they?"

"Wh-wha? No? I mean. Maybe?  I, there... one of them had something about using lenses but there's not exactly sunlight inside, but I would never..?" she was a little caught off guard. Typically when caught doing something, she was expecting accusations and  had her story prepared. This wasn't her doing though... oh no... They're seriously going to believe its me aren't they... "Iiiii can't stay to answer questions though. I really need to uh, find a book on...." she looked around, searching for inspiration "...literacy for my essay thats due..soon.. like... later todaayy, may not have started iiit.... you know? Gotta go!" She began to hurry away from there. She immediately began cursing herself for this reaction. Now it just looked even more like she was the one who did that. 

 

[xinoehp512 he/him]

Back at his lodgings, Maern flipped through his pages of notes and observations. They weren’t particularly long- only a couple of pages- and they weren’t particularly good, either. But they were all he had for now.

Maern turned to his pack and began to pull things out, looking for one specific thing; a book he’d borrowed from the Stacks. He found it and pulled it out. Read Minds! proclaimed the title in large, visible lettering. Underneath it were the words Astound your friends! and Discover Secrets! along with a picture of a person reaching out as if to pluck something from a thought bubble. A shady-looking book, to be sure, but Maern had skimmed the first few pages and found things that seemed intriguing.

He opened the book up on the table near his notes sheets and began to read, referring back to the papers every few pages to check something or another. After an hour or so of this he sighed and closed the book.. I need more, he thought. More, and better. This just isn’t going to cut it anymore.

Luckily, the book had included several tips for how to effectively analyze situations. He’d have to practice those tomorrow, he supposed.

For now, all he could do was hope the skindancers wouldn’t get him in his sleep.

----

8 hours ago, CadCom said:

Yes, absolutely. I have not been in school. I think we app started out in school, term 1 month 1 so I put in for some EP points at that time, and then I was in Imre. Then I didnt go to school for term 2. A bit of misunderstanding the rules partially accounted for that reason, but I'm once again in the Imre this month. Next semester I'm hoping to attend school if everything works out for me though. 

Okay, that's pretty much what I expected. Sorry about your difficulties :\ I hope you manage to make it in next semester too.  (And sorry if that question came off as pushy- I meant for it to be more of an optional question, although I fear it didn't come out that way.)

1 hour ago, Straw said:

Lopen(2): DeTess, Striker
Devotary(1): Lopen
Green Rover(1): Lopen
Rathmaskal(1): Elkanah,
Walin(1): Karnage
Elandera(1): Karnage
Bard(1): Xino
Experience(1): Xino
Straw(1): Striker
Haelbarde (1): Straw
Coda (1): Straw

You know, this vote spread looks surprisingly familiar.  It seems that although people seem to be in agreement to vote based on suspicion, the votes are still winding up rather spread out. Of course, this is only the beginning of the cycle; I doubt that votes will be spread out quite as much as the turn progresses in comparison to previous ones, as people aren't trying to do it on purpose- we still have ten hours left in the cycle, after all, and experience has shown that many posts happen during that time- but we should be careful about failing to concentrate our votes enough, as spread-out votes are much less of a threat to the elims (especially if any are staying at the Golden Pony) which will mean we get less information from the vote. Hopefully most people are just waiting until later in the cycle to post.

Edited May 7, 2020 by xinoehp512

[Straw he/him]

Straw had been walking around the Archives when he began to smell some smoke. Eventually, he went to go ask about it, and found out that a fire had been set by some mischievous student. It sounded rather like something Bryn would know about, so he decided to go find her and ask about it. As he walked to the front of the Archives, Straw noticed that there were a lot of students who were desperately studying for admissions. He'd been doing much the same for the last few days. 

Eventually, Straw arrived at the front of the Archives, and saw that Bryn was already there. As he watched, she walked up to one of the librarians and started talking to him. Unfortunately for her, it looked like the librarian was angry at her for some reason. Eventually, Straw saw Bryn stammer an explanation or excuse and then run away. That was unusual. Usually, she always had some kind of excuse ready. Straw decided to follow her and ask if she knew anything about the fire. If she didn't, they could always study together like they had done a bit ago. He'd found a few books on pranks that she might enjoy, and had even pranked someone last month.

( @Burnt Spaghetti )

[xinoehp512 he/him]

Maern gave a sniff as he approached the Archives. Was that… smoke?

It had better not be in flames, he thought worriedly, quickening his pace. Books burned fast- even just a spark had the potential to burn a library to the ground. Especially in a place as big as the Archives, where a fire might not be caught until it was too late.

“Excuse me,” he said to one of the helpers at the front desk. “Is there a fire? Do you need assistance, or water, or anything?”

The helper shook his head. “It’s under control now,” he said. “It got caught before it could do any real damage.” His expression soured. “Who didn’t get caught was the person or people who set it.”
Maern gaped. “Someone set it?”
“That’s what we think,” said the library keeper. “Shocking, I know. At least it was probably an accident.”
Maern pushed away from the desk, stunned. Start a fire in the Archives? What student would even think about doing that?

Sabotage, he thought, suddenly feeling cold. Perhaps… the skindancers?

There were a couple of students that seemed to be discussing the fire nearby. Maern wandered over to listen in on their conversation- perhaps it would give a clue as to the identity of the saboteur.

----

I'm going to try and do a discussion of all the votes now, provide my perspective?

On 5/6/2020 at 3:55 AM, DeTess said:

Normally, this'd be the point in the game where I'd do a massive stack of reads on all people in the game. Unfortunately, these posts take time, especially in a large and active game like this, and I won't have time for that either today or tomorrow, so that'll be something I can start next cycle at the earliest.

For now I'm going to put a vote on Lopen. On a reread, I'm not quite as suspicious of them as I was late last turn based on gut (mostly because they pointed out that they have been fairly busy in the earlier cycles), but the amount of game comments and actually alignment indicative stuff coming from him is far lower than I'm used to when he's village, and Lopen is one of the people that I automatically distrust the moment it looks like they're flying under the radar.

20 hours ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

 

Myself, hm. Reads are hard. 
Lopen is on my radar currently, (sorry  ) but i haven't worked out if thats just past game paranoia or not. I see that last cycle fura brought up that the WGG possibility was strange,  which i suppose is a fair point which is maybe whats gotten me curious? Also mentioned lopen putting off voting and arguing for the vote spread.  Fura seemed to think that is more elim benifitting. I'm not sure.  Lopen is a noble so doesnt need the tuition reductions for votes, but if only the people needing the reductions vote, those tuition based votes could turn into serious consequences so I don't blame him for arguing for the spread, especially since his name was always quickly put into the mix from being noble.  Hm. I dunno. Maybe i'm just salty that he was cagey in pms  can't blame him for that though, he's learnt from past mistakes ;P
Even if i don't fully agree with that post of furas last cycle, i do appreciate the push towards game talk. Cause look! it prompted further discussion!
 

11 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Anyway, I really think it's time I start trying to figure out who I think are Skindancers. I don't know why, but something about Lopen has been setting alarm bells for me. The tone just feels off to me. If I had the time to dedicate to a full reread of everything I would try and go through and find out why. However, I don't really have that time right now, so I just have to rely on my gut. 

Three people have expressed suspicion for Lopen for having a unusual tone/playstyle. I don't know enough about Lopen's usual tone/playstyle to comment, but I found it at least intriguing. It might be that they're feeding off each other for suspicions, but still you have to wonder if it's more than just that. I'll hold off on voting on him for now, but I'm curious to see if any other players more experienced with Lopen and playstyle analysis think there's something up.

11 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

As for my second vote, I'm going to use it on Straw. I'm still not a huge fan of how much he was trying to keep us from spreading out our votes last turn. He's also been putting in a lot of work on something that isn't necessarily super helpful for the village. In my experience, players who put a lot of work in on something that isn't necessarily alignment indicative (such as post counts, mentions of other players in posts, etc.) tend to be elims. They're trying to show that they're putting effort into the game without necessarily doing something super helpful. (Also, Straw, don't take this personally in case you're actually a villager. This is how I caught an elim once in the AG, so I've started picking up on it in other games too. I do really appreciate your work despite all this! )

The thing is, Straw's been doing stuff I would consider useful as well (for example, the graphs/charts on turns one (and maybe two? I don't remember)). If it were just things like you describe, then that would be suspicious; as it stands, I think he's just trying to be generally helpful, which is a village trait. It might be me just overestimating his contributions, but I have a village read on him currently.

All the other votes besides these are either poke votes or votes for 'flying under the radar', which are similar. In that way, this cycle feels a lot like C1 of a normal game, which I find slightly concerning- we don't want to be playing catch-up with the elims. Admittedly I find it hard to comb through previous threads myself for analysis; I can understand why getting stuff out of the first couple of cycles is hard. I certainly don't think I could contribute much beyond what I've already contributed (although I hope to at least try).  'Flying under the radar' votes are better than pure poke votes in this respect, as they draw upon information available from past cycles, but preferably more in-depth analysis can be done.

[CadCom he/him]

Cadici finished counting as he reached campus. "One thousand nine hundred forty three" he loudly proclaimed. 

1943 steps from his lodging to campus, I case anyone wanted to know. And he even reached campus with about 5 minutes until his class started. He was doing great for the first day that he chose to attend of the new term. 

He got to class only 5 minutes late. Turns out class was on the other side of campus. Ehh no big deal. 

After sitting in the back of a rather large lecture hall, Cadici realized that he had fallen asleep and had no idea what the master was talking about. As soon as class ended he would head over to the archives and search for a mentor. Hopefully there was one that would be willing to mentor him for almost nothing as it was very difficult for him as a ruh to attend school I'm the first place. 

----

Upon arriving at the archives building, he noticed that many people were gathered outside and there was a faint smell of smoke. What had happened here, he wondered. 

He walked up to the nearest group and asked "Hey guys, what happened here? Why are people acting so weird?

@anyone doing the smoky archives RP

-------

I do see that the amount of people with votes is still very spread out. I haven't done a super close analysis so far, but I'll vote based on gut and suspicion, which I havent done yet, as that will help lower my tuition and also help people get reads on me. 

I'll limit my voting to the people who already have votes, but I will split them up. The first will go to Lopen, purely because they currently have the most, as per last count at least, even though I'm not a huge fan of that vote, and may change it if I have time to get on later and see other people have more votes. 

My second vote will go on Straw because Straw apparently last cycle was trying to keep from spreading out the votes, but this cycle is very much fine with it, as they placed votes on two different players who didnt have any votes. Feels weird to me. Though i disagree with strikers analysis that xino quoted above because i feel like that is something straw does a lot. 

Other people I could consider voting for would include Xino, due in part to the reason someone pointed out about him asking for info from me and also because I read his last post in defense of Straw as a bit manufactured. 

Other than that, I would need to do a deeper reread into the players to see if there is anyone I would like to vote on. These are just a few of the top gut feelings that came to me. I'll try to look more into players either later this turn or hopefully earlyish next turn though. 

[Straw he/him]

16 minutes ago, CadCom said:

My second vote will go on Straw because Straw apparently last cycle was trying to keep from spreading out the votes, but this cycle is very much fine with it, as they placed votes on two different players who didnt have any votes. Feels weird to me. Though i disagree with strikers analysis that xino quoted above because i feel like that is something straw does a lot. 

Um... I think you're mixing me up with someone else. I have always been arguing in favor of spreading out votes. Araris and DeTess were the ones arguing against spreading out votes last turn.