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Long Game 56: Discord in Elendel


StrikerEZ

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2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Well, the Kandra role might work like the Quicksilver role from Joe's Gunnerkrigg LG, where they abandon a body each cycle, which appears as dead, and inhabit a new one. Aman's coinshot dying during the night would heavily suggest that the Kandra works like that.

That was my original theory, but that would mean Xino was the Kandra, and started out knowing who all the elims were.

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Oh yeah. Hmm.

One other thing that's bothering me a little is why did Sart claim lurcher? I'm not sure why it would make sense for an elim to do that, unless Drake is also an elim. In that case, Drake could have claimed to self-protect without implicating a teammate.

Edit: Ninja'd

Edited by Araris Valerian
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1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

Oh yeah. Hmm.

One other thing that's bothering me a little is why did Sart claim lurcher? I'm not sure why it would make sense for an elim to do that, unless Drake is also an elim. In that case, Drake could have claimed to self-protect without implicating a teammate.

Edit: Ninja'd

My current theory is Devotary’s patented Wounded Buffalo Gambit (TM), in which a villager is attacked and protected by the Eliminators to arouse suspicions of a WGG or to get an Eliminator Lurcher trusted by the village. This tactic was used by Araris’ very own Eliminator team back in LG44 and serves as a perfect explanation as to why Sart would claim this attack. 

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5 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Oh yeah. Hmm.

One other thing that's bothering me a little is why did Sart claim lurcher? I'm not sure why it would make sense for an elim to do that, unless Drake is also an elim. In that case, Drake could have claimed to self-protect without implicating a teammate.

Edit: Ninja'd

Sleep evades me, so I can answer this one.

2 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

My current theory is Devotary’s patented Wounded Buffalo Gambit (TM), in which a villager is attacked and protected by the Eliminators to arouse suspicions of a WGG or to get an Eliminator Lurcher trusted by the village. This tactic was used by Araris’ very own Eliminator team back in LG44 and serves as a perfect explanation as to why Sart would claim this attack. 

Nevermind :P back to bed

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35 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm not so sure. We probably would have lynched Drake if he (Sart) hadn't claimed.

Exactly. Well, the only thing I can think of doing is removing my vote on Devotary and adding one on Aman. I really hope there's not two Village Lurchers, otherwise we just wasted a whole lot of time.

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55 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Joe's Gunnerkrigg LG

:( I know I'm not around much, but I am in this game, you know. :P (Yeah you were in the Forest IIRC and Joe GM'd that half, but still. :P)

At this point, Araris/Drake/Sart seems like the obvious elim team. (Although there are definitely other possibilities.) Don't think it really matters where my vote goes, but just in case there's a rioter and a soother on the Elim team, Drake, Sart.

 

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Well then. Seems like it's been a fun day. I apologize for my inactivity again, but unfortunately it is likely to continue throughout the week. As is, I agree that now that we've seen my theory of role madness to be incorrect that two village lurchers are extremely unlikely. I've not had much to go on for Sart. I'm vote Aman

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I'm going to vote for Sart. Aman has privately claimed to me early in the game, which I think is more village than straight up claiming in thread mid-game. Also, I don't remember much content and analysis that Sart has been providing this game - mostly, it's been RP with short conclusions. This could be a sign of an elim trying to lay low and go unnoticed.

It is of note that there are indeed vanilla roles in this game, which makes duplicate roles much less likely to exist. So, if Aman is indeed a village Lurcher, that'll make Sart less likely to be a Lurcher, let alone a village one. Aman could be lying, but at this point in the game, Aman's claim seems more trustworthy to me.

I'll also note that if Aman is elim, Fifth very likely is as well.

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Wheee I love incorrectly reasoned bandwagons that form on me while I'm not online.

As I am no longer under the gun and the cycle is almost up, I'm not going to waste time justifying myself.

 

So, there's a chance that I'm going to fall on the wrong side of history, but...

I believe Sart's claim.

Here's why:

  • Sart both PMed me claiming lurcher and later announced it in-thread. It's not like he was trying to hide it. I think you may have created that narrative, Aman, because you were able to figure it out before he ever claimed to you, but Sart is not by any stretch of the imagination avoiding accountability here.
    • I highly doubt an eliminator lurcher would expose themselves like that while they had strong evidence of another village lurcher.
      • It's possible that elim!Sart protected both elim!Aman and village!me and is now taking a bullet to clear Aman and get me killed to boot, but that just sounds highly improbable.
    • Sart also told me about Fifth's claim (which by the way, why was Fifth pulling a fake-claim gambit like that one cycle after lynching Furamirionind for doing the exact same thing?). I don't think elim!Sart would tell village!Drake about a claim like that.
  • I know I am village. Sure, a reverse-WGG frame job is possible, but it's seriously unlikely. The only time I can remember it happening, I was the one who did it, and in retrospect I don't think it was even a good idea.
    • Even if you are not me, and do not know that I am a villager, it is very likely that Sart and myself have the same alignment, and it is also very likely that Sart would not have exposed himself if we were both eliminators. Ergo, Sart is very likely to be a villager.
  • Sart's defense frankly sounds both more sincere and less convoluted than the accusations against Sart do.

I am more suspicious of Amanuensis. Reasons:

  • I agree that two village lurchers on top of a mistborn sounds highly unlikely. Ergo, if Sart is village, Aman is not.
    • The way Aman has approached lurcher claiming is considerably less direct than Sart, and I believe simplicity and directness plays in the favor of the village 90% of the time.
  • I've thought for a while that Aman could be the SK:
    • They survived an attack on the first night, and is claiming to have protected themselves. There was no kill on the first night, indicating the SK had something better to do. Such as protect themselves.
    • On the second night, Xino was killed. Aman speculated a coinshot kill because it was an attack against an inactive. I find it highly unlikely that there is a village coinshot in addition to a village mistborn, even more unlikely than two village lurchers. There is a much more obvious explanation: Aman is the SK, making the kill on the second night, and Aman is definitely the type to take out inactives.
      • Aman conspicuously did not bring up that they were the type of person who would attack inactives as an SK/eliminator. I do not believe this fact would not have occurred to village!Aman, or that they would have refrained from mentioning it.
    • Aman has been largely ignoring the subject of the SK in the thread. I am pretty sure Aman is good enough that the stuff they do say, will rarely be incriminating. But the things that are left unsaid are more telling.
      • I also tucked a question about SK analysis in a PM with Aman containing several other points, and that particular point was ignored. Not hard evidence, but I think it's fairly indicative that Aman is avoiding the subject of the kandra.
    • This may be a function of time to write posts, but Aman has been changing views about things in a way that seems a bit disingenuous. Notably, one of the only things that has changed today from last night was that an eliminator died, but now Aman doesn't suspect Devotary at all. If I were the SK I would want to keep the elims and village mostly balanced against each other.
Edited by MrakeDarshall
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Night 3 - Truth and Lies

The day had started off calm enough, with just a few scattered discussions going on around the station. But then it seemed as if Ruin himself came back to whisper in everyone’s ears.
There were so many claims being made about the few officers that people were now afraid of, Wilco, Thomas, and Sart. Plus, apparently some people had been making untrue claims about whether or not they had allomantic abilities.
Draff knew there would be trouble today, but he couldn’t be in all places at once. So, he decided he’d patrol the lobby, hallways, and every room he could think of where someone might try to kill one of the people being accused of being a rebel now.
He was making his seventh rotation around the station when he heard yet another scream from a nearby room. Cursing under his breath, he ran to go see who had died now.
He found Sart in the room, just barely breathing. Apparently whoever had been attacking him had decided he couldn’t be a rebel.
Draff had him taken to the infirmary, then settled down on one of the benches in the lobby. There were only so many of them left now, and they couldn’t afford to keep doing this to each other. All of the lying, half-truths, and beatings were going to tear them apart.

~

(7) Sart: Fifth Scholar, Amanuensis, Ventyl, _Stick_, Devotary, Aonar, Lumgol
(4) Aman: Sart, Araris, Rath, MrakeDarshall

Sart was lynched! They were a Police Lurcher!

Player List:

Spoiler
  1. Amanuensis, aka "Detective Wilco Renaud"
  2. Ark1002, aka "Arr K. Thousantoo" Police Mistborn
  3. Lumgol, aka "TBD"
  4. Fifth Scholar, aka “Serdig Darillid”
  5. Araris Valerian, aka “Fade”
  6. Ventyl, aka “Lafay Etteax”
  7. Furamirionind, aka "Furamirionind" Police Hazekiller
  8. Rathmaskal
  9. Devotary of Spontaneity, aka "Sindale"
  10. Sart Police Lurcher
  11. _Stick_, aka "Stick"
  12. Young Bard, aka " Nedar Latfin" Police Officer
  13. Aonar, aka "Ainm Lathair"
  14. Snipexe
  15. Straw, aka "Mertis tyl Loesp"
  16. Drake Marshall, aka “Thomas Blackburn”
  17. xinoehp512 Rebel Officer

PMs are open, but remember that each player may only make one new PM each turn. Remember to include me and Mailliw in all PMs, and group PMs ARE allowed.

This turn will last 24 hours and will end at 7:30 PM CDT on June 18th. 

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Well, Aman, you’ve led us on a merry chase. It’s a little amusing to me that my first instincts on you were correct, but I silenced my paranoia too much. 

Drake and Araris are probably cleared, but I’m not extending that to Rath. Meanwhile, if the Coinshot which Aman claimed to could kindly target me tonight so we don’t waste a lynch on me in the future, that would be excellent. I raise no hand to defend myself. 

Aman, I commend you. You really did pull off a convincing WGG. Now, I get to gloat about being right in the shadow of being so utterly wrong. Well played. 

As for Aman’s teammates? Lum springs to mind immediately, and Devotary and Stick are possibilities. Rath too, if there was distancing going on (I suspect one of Aman’s teammates possibly being on his lynch). 

This lynch probably was helpful, in a way—we are one Elim closer to victory after tomorrow’s lynch. However, we did lose our only protection role. Also, to close, let’s not let Aman double-talk us out of his lynch tomorrow. He’s done it before and will do it again if we let him. 

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Sigh.

This feels like a repeat of the last round of voting.

Quote

Alright, well that’s not good. Either Aman is elim or there are two village lurchers.

Three, if you count mistborn. I don't think the village has 3 protect roles.

The third option is that Aman is the SK. I think SK!Aman generally fits a bit better than elim!Aman. I'd wager Aman already has a good explanation ready for why they aren't an elim, and I'm betting it's going to be true.

Edited by MrakeDarshall
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I don't think Aman is the SK. Him and Devotary are elims. I think so because in our PM, Devotary seemed to subtly be rooting for Sart to be lynched.

If Aman is elim, Fifth might be as well... although if that were the case, Fifth probably wouldn't have included Aman in so many of his PM's. But basically they had a disagreement at first and might have made it look like distancing, when they really they agreed, and made it look very long and very genuine when it was just elims trying to distance. I find that rather unlikely though, as I think that Aman was pocketing both myself and Fifth.

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Current elim list: Aman + two players from Fifth/Devotary/Lum (I’m also less sure about Rath and Ventyl now - these two previously were probably my strongest village reads.) Bc xino flipped vanilla I think it’s safe to assume there’s 3 elims left, or perhaps 2 if they have a Mistborn. 

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6 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Night 3 - Truth and Lies

(7) Sart: Fifth Scholar, Amanuensis, Ventyl, _Stick_, Devotary, Aonar, Lumgol
(4) Aman: Sart, Araris, Rath, MrakeDarshall

Sart was lynched! They were a Police Lurcher!

Sart is... what? This has to be a joke.

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6 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Well, Aman, you’ve led us on a merry chase. It’s a little amusing to me that my first instincts on you were correct, but I silenced my paranoia too much. 

Drake and Araris are probably cleared, but I’m not extending that to Rath. Meanwhile, if the Coinshot which Aman claimed to could kindly target me tonight so we don’t waste a lynch on me in the future, that would be excellent. I raise no hand to defend myself. 

Aman, I commend you. You really did pull off a convincing WGG. Now, I get to gloat about being right in the shadow of being so utterly wrong. Well played. 

As for Aman’s teammates? Lum springs to mind immediately, and Devotary and Stick are possibilities. Rath too, if there was distancing going on (I suspect one of Aman’s teammates possibly being on his lynch). 

This lynch probably was helpful, in a way—we are one Elim closer to victory after tomorrow’s lynch. However, we did lose our only protection role. Also, to close, let’s not let Aman double-talk us out of his lynch tomorrow. He’s done it before and will do it again if we let him. 

Sigh.

I led you all on a merry chase, huh? Is no one going to ask what Elim!Aman benefits from going all out on Sart like that? If I knew Sart was a Village!Lurcher, I would also know that getting him lynched would end with my lynch too. So why would I do it? Why would I not let the Devotary lynch go, or the Drake lynch? Why would I decide to back off of Fura? Why would I advocate a no lynch D1?

Literally the one thing that could happen to drag your tunnel back onto me full force.... I hate to break it to you, Fifth, but your instincts are not as correct as they seem. Neither are mine apparently, because Striker gave us two Lurchers and I have absolutely no clue why.

Wasn't a WGG, and honestly tired of defending myself from this accusation. At this point I'm just going to ask the Coinshot to shoot me so I don't waste the Village's time, and so I can finally get some answers on what's been going on this game.

6 hours ago, Ventyl said:

Alright, well that’s not good. Either Aman is elim or there are two village lurchers.

The second, but of course no one is going to believe it until I'm dead. I probably wouldn't if I were anyone else's shoes, but that doesn't make it any less true.

5 hours ago, MrakeDarshall said:

Sigh.

This feels like a repeat of the last round of voting.

Three, if you count mistborn. I don't think the village has 3 protect roles.

The third option is that Aman is the SK. I think SK!Aman generally fits a bit better than elim!Aman. I'd wager Aman already has a good explanation ready for why they aren't an elim, and I'm betting it's going to be true.

With the existence of the Coinshot, I think we're definitely overestimating how the Mistborn plays into balance. Sure, while it's possible a Mistborn could just choose any of the power roles and stick with it, it's becoming increasingly obvious to me that it's not a factor in deciding the rest of the roles.

5 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Even if Aman is the SK and not an elim I'm suspicious of Rath, and would seriously consider lynching him the cycle after next.

I would also appreciate a Rath lynch, although a part of the reasoning is slightly hypocritical.

3 hours ago, Lumgol said:

I don't think Aman is the SK. Him and Devotary are elims. I think so because in our PM, Devotary seemed to subtly be rooting for Sart to be lynched.

If Aman is elim, Fifth might be as well... although if that were the case, Fifth probably wouldn't have included Aman in so many of his PM's. But basically they had a disagreement at first and might have made it look like distancing, when they really they agreed, and made it look very long and very genuine when it was just elims trying to distance. I find that rather unlikely though, as I think that Aman was pocketing both myself and Fifth.

It's because Devotary realized that I'd be a suicidal madman for doing what I did yesterday as an elim. It just makes no sense. It's very clear I had no idea that Sart was a Villager, not to mention the sheer confidence I had in him being an elim should be an incredible indicator that I've been serious this whole time.

I'm re-evaluating my stance on Fifth, too. I think he was going for the Drake Mislynch so hard because he knew as soon as Sart died, my death would follow. Now they can't mislynch Drake later because Sart made it obvious he was a Villager. It makes a lot of sense considering we blocked both the elims first and second night kill.

34 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Current elim list: Aman + two players from Fifth/Devotary/Lum (I’m also less sure about Rath and Ventyl now - these two previously were probably my strongest village reads.) Bc xino flipped vanilla I think it’s safe to assume there’s 3 elims left, or perhaps 2 if they have a Mistborn. 

Not even going to entertain the idea of me being a Village Lurcher too? My suspicion of Stick just shot way up.

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1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Sigh.

I led you all on a merry chase, huh? Is no one going to ask what Elim!Aman benefits from going all out on Sart like that? If I knew Sart was a Village!Lurcher, I would also know that getting him lynched would end with my lynch too. So why would I do it? Why would I not let the Devotary lynch go, or the Drake lynch? Why would I decide to back off of Fura? Why would I advocate a no lynch D1?

Literally the one thing that could happen to drag your tunnel back onto me full force.... I hate to break it to you, Fifth, but your instincts are not as correct as they seem. Neither are mine apparently, because Striker gave us two Lurchers and I have absolutely no clue why.

Wasn't a WGG, and honestly tired of defending myself from this accusation. At this point I'm just going to ask the Coinshot to shoot me so I don't waste the Village's time, and so I can finally get some answers on what's been going on this game.

The second, but of course no one is going to believe it until I'm dead. I probably wouldn't if I were anyone else's shoes, but that doesn't make it any less true.

With the existence of the Coinshot, I think we're definitely overestimating how the Mistborn plays into balance. Sure, while it's possible a Mistborn could just choose any of the power roles and stick with it, it's becoming increasingly obvious to me that it's not a factor in deciding the rest of the roles.

I would also appreciate a Rath lynch, although a part of the reasoning is slightly hypocritical.

It's because Devotary realized that I'd be a suicidal madman for doing what I did yesterday as an elim. It just makes no sense. It's very clear I had no idea that Sart was a Villager, not to mention the sheer confidence I had in him being an elim should be an incredible indicator that I've been serious this whole time.

I'm re-evaluating my stance on Fifth, too. I think he was going for the Drake Mislynch so hard because he knew as soon as Sart died, my death would follow. Now they can't mislynch Drake later because Sart made it obvious he was a Villager. It makes a lot of sense considering we blocked both the elims first and second night kill.

Not even going to entertain the idea of me being a Village Lurcher too? My suspicion of Stick just shot way up.

Elim!Aman benefits by killing the only village Lurcher, casting enormous amounts of suspicion on me for trusting your reads on Sart and Drake, wasting another two cycles of discussion needed to re-commit to lynching you, and getting the chance of swindling others out of his lynch with the silver tongue he’s always possessed. Devotary is a potential teammate—she’s shared information with you that I’d consider fairly confidential, though Drake is probably the closest we have to a cleared player right now. As for why you backed off them? Keeping your hands clean would be important to Elim!Aman, and if they really are villagers, being on the wrong wagon might bring suspicion down on you even sooner (considering what is now a clear WGG). 

You think I haven’t realised that about my instincts yet, after trusting you this cycle and going after Sart and Fura? Or after my numerous failures in past games? My title on the Shard has always been “Honourary Eliminator” for a reason. That said, as you yourself point out, two Lurchers for the village in a game this size would be simply absurd, unless the Elim have a team of full Mistborn or something (and one was vanilla, so there you go). 

I find it interesting that you’re convinced enough of your innocence that you argue that the village view you as such, and not lynch you in suspicion tomorrow, and then proceed to ask to be killed in a manner which you can clearly defend. Perhaps there’s a solution here—if your contact attacks you, and you survive or if the attack was hazekilled, we lynch you tomorrow? You would have actually no way of explaining that one, although how you’re trying to worm out of this lynch after expressing “100% confidence” in Sart’s alignment last turn is amazing to behold. And of course, we have nought but your word on whether your attack was a WGG, though you’ve also admitted that it was an Aman move and that Elim!Aman would do it eventually, so it still makes a lot of sense. 

Yeah, speaking of the Coinshot...Aman (and by extension the Eliminators) now know the identities of the Coinshot, the Seeker, the Tineye, probably the Thug and the Soother, and maybe a couple of Vanillas. I’m not sure if the Rioter has yet claimed. 

Aman, sheer confidence in another’s alignment and willingness to tie one’s alignment to another’s can be signs of a villager, but are also tactics used by Eliminators when trying to bus or to drive a mislynch at a perceived tipping point. Given that the village power roles have claimed and are now unguarded thanks to your efforts, this would count as a tipping-point, particularly as you have the chance of talkin your way out of the spot you’re in. 

You were the one who attempted to force the lynch into a conflict between two Lurchers so that if one died, and flipped village, the other would be lynched on suspicion. Now that it falls like this, you complain? And you fault me for pursuing Drake when you were stoking the flames of his lynch (and Fura’s as well, might I add) in PMs with me? And yes, as soon one Lurcher dies and flips village, the other Lurcher dies too. You set it up that way. And now that Sart has flipped village, you expect us to abandon this earlier position which you yourself held? 

I’ll entertain that possibility, but not seriously consider it. You’ve decided, in effect, to trade your Lurcher for the village Lurcher and a clear shot at village power roles. If both Lurchers are village, that would be not only trollish, but also imbalanced, and if we hadn’t made such a mess of things with the lynches we set up, the Elims would have no chance at all considering the other strong roles we were given (Mistborn, Coinshot, Seeker). 

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4 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Elim!Aman benefits by killing the only village Lurcher, casting enormous amounts of suspicion on me for trusting your reads on Sart and Drake, wasting another two cycles of discussion needed to re-commit to lynching you, and getting the chance of swindling others out of his lynch with the silver tongue he’s always possessed. Devotary is a potential teammate—she’s shared information with you that I’d consider fairly confidential, though Drake is probably the closest we have to a cleared player right now. As for why you backed off them? Keeping your hands clean would be important to Elim!Aman, and if they really are villagers, being on the wrong wagon might bring suspicion down on you even sooner (considering what is now a clear WGG). 

You think I haven’t realised that about my instincts yet, after trusting you this cycle and going after Sart and Fura? Or after my numerous failures in past games? My title on the Shard has always been “Honourary Eliminator” for a reason. That said, as you yourself point out, two Lurchers for the village in a game this size would be simply absurd, unless the Elim have a team of full Mistborn or something (and one was vanilla, so there you go). 

I find it interesting that you’re convinced enough of your innocence that you argue that the village view you as such, and not lynch you in suspicion tomorrow, and then proceed to ask to be killed in a manner which you can clearly defend. Perhaps there’s a solution here—if your contact attacks you, and you survive or if the attack was hazekilled, we lynch you tomorrow? You would have actually no way of explaining that one, although how you’re trying to worm out of this lynch after expressing “100% confidence” in Sart’s alignment last turn is amazing to behold. And of course, we have nought but your word on whether your attack was a WGG, though you’ve also admitted that it was an Aman move and that Elim!Aman would do it eventually, so it still makes a lot of sense. 

Yeah, speaking of the Coinshot...Aman (and by extension the Eliminators) now know the identities of the Coinshot, the Seeker, the Tineye, probably the Thug and the Soother, and maybe a couple of Vanillas. I’m not sure if the Rioter has yet claimed. 

Aman, sheer confidence in another’s alignment and willingness to tie one’s alignment to another’s can be signs of a villager, but are also tactics used by Eliminators when trying to bus or to drive a mislynch at a perceived tipping point. Given that the village power roles have claimed and are now unguarded thanks to your efforts, this would count as a tipping-point, particularly as you have the chance of talkin your way out of the spot you’re in. 

You were the one who attempted to force the lynch into a conflict between two Lurchers so that if one died, and flipped village, the other would be lynched on suspicion. Now that it falls like this, you complain? And you fault me for pursuing Drake when you were stoking the flames of his lynch (and Fura’s as well, might I add) in PMs with me? And yes, as soon one Lurcher dies and flips village, the other Lurcher dies too. You set it up that way. And now that Sart has flipped village, you expect us to abandon this earlier position which you yourself held? 

I’ll entertain that possibility, but not seriously consider it. You’ve decided, in effect, to trade your Lurcher for the village Lurcher and a clear shot at village power roles. If both Lurchers are village, that would be not only trollish, but also imbalanced, and if we hadn’t made such a mess of things with the lynches we set up, the Elims would have no chance at all considering the other strong roles we were given (Mistborn, Coinshot, Seeker). 

And the tunnel continues -_- when I'm dead, someone please kill Fifth

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