Long Game 53: The Fate of the Forum

[I think I am here. he/him]

My first vote on Road was initially for the fact he was lurking (lurkers are smerkers) but I didn’t really make that clear enough.

Anyway, Steel . I for one think Fura is village due to PMs and my little PM experiment, and my next suspicion was Steel. The defending Road and then jumping on the Guest lynch is consistent with what we thought elims were doing, Rae’s analysis sheds a light on things I missed, and from what info I got in my PMs, it’s more than me who’s suspicous of you.

在下週將召開高層官員會面、這個月餅的一天我就NeedLynchHelp?SignUpNow.com.

Edited March 24, 2019 by I think I am here.

[Sapphire Elephant]

Hm. I'm willing to give Steeldancer the benefit of the doubt here. I've played as an eliminator with Steeldancer before, and he always tends to panic a lot in the eliminator document before raising any suspicion on a team mate, much less voting on them. It could be ploy, but that's what I've seen of his playstyle. Still worth keeping an eye on, though. 
As useful as Rae's analysis is, honestly, I'm more interested in those who didn't vote on either Roadwalker or Guest. I'm still doing some looking over of the thread, but, I feel we will have more luck finding spammers in there, attempting to create a counter wagon. 

[Steeldancer he/him]

ok, sorry about the low quality of my last post, I only had 5 minutes to write that before a choir thing. Now it’s time to attempt the thing I am straight up the worst at: defending myself without sounding defensive, my personal kryptonite. 

My vote on Rae: I didn’t explain it well when I voted on Rae, but I did think I explained it well after. The idea of mayoring just ran past my suspicion filters  and I became paranoid of the spammers using trolling to shield themselves from suspicion. And I was right about that, as I expressed on the weekend.  I then retracted my vote when Rae proved she wasn’t just voting on Elandera for whatever reason. I’m also a trifle annoyed that Scholar isn’t aware of my tendency to be a bit dramatic right now. If you haven’t figured that that is part of my personality in general... well... then I’m at a bit of a loss. In fact, I would argue my being dramatic is more a sign of me being an eliminator than being a spammer. As a spammer, I tend to be more cautious about the tone of my posts. I don’t hold much emotion back as an eliminator/villager. Also, have I expressed how much I despise the terminology of this game? It’s so confusing. 

Anyway, the placement of my vote, is suspect, but if you look at my previous post, that was my first post after starting to look at the thread. I understand the placement of votes is important, but that was the very first time I had posted after Guest voted in such a suspicious way. I feel like my real world schedule and the true identities of the people the lynch was focusing on at that point kind of screwed me over a bit. After reading the thread, of course I voted on him! Especially as it made sense, as I said before, to give Roadwalker the benefit of the doubt in case there was a speechless role. 

Also, I have no idea if that was an insult or a compliment, Elephant. But thanks I guess? 

Edited March 25, 2019 by NotASteelClone
Adding relevant thoughts about my playstyle that made more sense to edit in than create a whole new post.

[Sapphire Elephant]

Furamiriond. I find you by far the most suspicious out of the day 1 lynch. First off, you were up all the way up to rollover, and never voted on either Guest or Roadwalker, instead keeping the vote on Rae, which at that point wasn't going to happen. Fura also asks for more participation from Rae. Rae gave that, which it appears is what Steel is saying is the reason for him taking his vote off of Rae. However, Fura never did, despite very much being around to see the further posts Rae made. Also, it would seem to me that it would make more sense for an eliminator to vote on the actual suspicious person, namely Guest, but instead Fura kept a vote that was sourced as being a call for more relevant conversation from Rae. 
I also find myself suspicious of the other individuals who left their votes on random people, although that varies depending on what their actual schedules were like. Fura is at the top of my suspicion list because they were there to the very end of the cycle, while the others who left their vote on individuals, like Fifth Scholar, Cadmium Compounder, Lum, and Araris weren't necessarily there to the very end of the cycle. 
Futhermore, there are a bunch of individuals who posted once or twice in day one, and haven't shown up since. These people include Rathmaskal, @May I suggest The Only Joe, @Araris Valerian, although there are a few more. I invite you guys to say a bit more. 
Edit: I was just being honest about your playstyle, Steel. No compliment or insult to it, just a statement of what I've seen playing SE before. 
Edit 2: I guess I should address the fact that Itiah didn't die last night, despite telling Fura that they are me. Thing is, that's bait, and a good spammer will spot that. I myself wouldn't kill them until the next night, or even better yet, I would convert them, not kill them! In fact, that's now my theory. If I were a spammer Fura in that situation, I would be very cautious about just killing Itiah that same night, because with open PMs that is asking for it to be a set up. And in case they were telling the truth, I would put up to my team using the conversion on them. So, I don't see that as clearing Fura at all, but rather just evidencing that Fura's team isn't stumbling into traps easily. 

Edited March 25, 2019 by Sapphire Elephant

[Steeldancer he/him]

Alrighty then, I know this is going to look bad, but after a full reread of the thread I’m primarily suspicious of Seventh Saint . Fura, I’m less suspicious of right now because they sent me a PM and actually talked to me, I didn’t get any evil vibes. Note, I’m not voting on Saint for the fact that he’s voting on me. No, rather he’s been tunneling on me in a weird way. We’ve played together pretty closely before, and I’m pretty sure he’s aware of my play style. I’m not playing any differently than my normal dramatic self, and he’s suspicious of that? If it were a newer player, or someone I hadn’t played with as much as Fifth, I wouldn’t be counter voting like this. But the reasoning for his votes just make no sense to me, given our player history. Also, elephant pointed out that he was one of the ones who were the only one to vote on a person, so I went back and looked at his vote. Well, there wasn’t much there, because he never posted even after I addressed his concerns, much less after Guest posted their suspicious vote. The next time he posts is in reaction to the results of the lynch, and the fact that he points out me (again with the tunneling), Alvron (like, seriously. What else do you expect from Alvron. Him creating a tie is very NAI. It would be way more suspicious if Alvron DIDNT make a tie. Talk about suspicious.) and Devotary. The person who made a decisive vote on Roadwalker. I’m so confused by this honestly. Alvron and Devotary were on at the end of the turn, and I voted like 12 hours beforehand on the person who at that point (weekend one) was the only one we knew was Spammer. Devotary seems a prime candidate for a spammer to set up suspicious on for the next lynch, which may have well happened if the vigilante hadn’t killed Roadwalker. And Alvron... again, expressing suspicion on Alvron for creating a tie is truly ridiculous. If I had been on for the end of the turn, as soon as it became possible for there to be a tie, I would have just sat and waited for Alvron to create the inevitable tie. 

Oh, and one more thing. This is the least solid thing, but Fifth Scholars posts... feel flat to me? It just feels a bit off. That’s my gut talking with that part, it’s not why I’m voting on Fifth it’s just further compulsion for me to vote on Fifth. This might be specifically because as I addressed how he is ignoring my playstyle in favor of tunneling on me, which in general just kind of bothers me. 

Edited March 25, 2019 by NotASteelClone
Clearing up time frames and making things more legible. I hate being on mobile.

[Sapphire Elephant]

@tiny wilson My suspicion of Rae last night was simply because they were the first person to come to mind when you asked. I hadn't done my analysis yet, so that wasn't really an accurate suspicion at the time. I would have cleared it up had PMs stayed active. Sorry for any misunderstanding. Please also understand that revealing this involves a bit of trust, and that I expect to not die tonight, and that you will be discreet.

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

1 hour ago, NotASteelClone said:

Alrighty then, I know this is going to look bad, but after a full reread of the thread I’m primarily suspicious of Seventh Saint . Fura, I’m less suspicious of right now because they sent me a PM and actually talked to me, I didn’t get any evil vibes. Note, I’m not voting on Saint for the fact that he’s voting on me. No, rather he’s been tunneling on me in a weird way. We’ve played together pretty closely before, and I’m pretty sure he’s aware of my play style. I’m not playing any differently than my normal dramatic self, and he’s suspicious of that? If it were a newer player, or someone I hadn’t played with as much as Fifth, I wouldn’t be counter voting like this. But the reasoning for his votes just make no sense to me, given our player history. Also, elephant pointed out that he was one of the ones who were the only one to vote on a person, so I went back and looked at his vote. Well, there wasn’t much there, because he never posted even after I addressed his concerns, much less after Guest posted their suspicious vote. The next time he posts is in reaction to the results of the lynch, and the fact that he points out me (again with the tunneling), Alvron (like, seriously. What else do you expect from Alvron. Him creating a tie is very NAI. It would be way more suspicious if Alvron DIDNT make a tie. Talk about suspicious.) and Devotary. The person who made a decisive vote on Roadwalker. I’m so confused by this honestly. Alvron and Devotary were on at the end of the turn, and I voted like 12 hours beforehand on the person who at that point (weekend one) was the only one we knew was Spammer. Devotary seems a prime candidate for a spammer to set up suspicious on for the next lynch, which may have well happened if the vigilante hadn’t killed Roadwalker. And Alvron... again, expressing suspicion on Alvron for creating a tie is truly ridiculous. If I had been on for the end of the turn, as soon as it became possible for there to be a tie, I would have just sat and waited for Alvron to create the inevitable tie. 

Oh, and one more thing. This is the least solid thing, but Fifth Scholars posts... feel flat to me? It just feels a bit off. That’s my gut talking with that part, it’s not why I’m voting on Fifth it’s just further compulsion for me to vote on Fifth. This might be specifically because as I addressed how he is ignoring my playstyle in favor of tunneling on me, which in general just kind of bothers me. 

My apologies, Steel. I’ll attempt to address each of your primary concerns, as again, time is not my friend. 

-In regards to my early vote on you, I was dissatisfied with the Roadwalker lynch, as I typically am with low-information yielding lynches, and hadn’t had much time at all to make a nuanced vote or perform any analysis beyond a basic level. This was before the Guest bandwagon, which I likely wouldn’t have joined, and in regards to me not responding, that was a simple function of me voting and then not looking at the thread for the rest of the cycle. If you want me to say it again, I was with relatives for the entire past three days and had no time whatsoever to make anything beyond minimal contribution. Obviously, I hate that. I enjoy being a fully active player, but IRL things got in the way. 

-Your vote on Guest does not clear you in the slightest. In fact, it looks worse now than it did before—knowing now that Road was up for the lynch, you helped contribute to the lynch of a Roleless Spammer over a powerful, Roled one, and the way in which it was cast is not, at least in my mind, consistent with any of the past play you mentioned. I tend to find you a cheerful yet often resigned villager who sounds slightly exasperated (no offence ), rather than an overly emotive one, and as such your vote on Guest looked odd to begin with. 

-Alvron creating a tie is, as previously mentioned, also NAI, and clearing him for it is unwise. The chance he had to create chaos with the votes shouldn’t be dismissed as well—if he was a Spammer, his seemingly random vote-switching could have been telling.

-I no longer suspect Devotary, but with the information I had at the time, could you honestly blame me? Working with limited time, that post would jump out as immediately suspect with the info I had at the time, and I was hardly the only one decrying her.

-I will note that I did express mild suspicion of Roadwalker after Guest’s lynch, which may have contributed to him as a target last Night. (This was a comment I made that Guest appeared to have tried to defuse a lynch on Roadwalker, and that it could be potentially telling either way.)

-In reference to me tunnelling on you, that may be the case, but again, I’ve not had time to survey a broad field of candidates, and currently have a lot more village than evil reads, so I’m pursuing what I have. I can’t comment on my flat tone—that’s again likely a result of me being in a rush and not being able to perform analysis. 

-Finally, as I can prove my village alignment via the lynch without the lynch killing me, I will be happy to shift my vote if that is what the village wishes. I’d rather not waste my extra life doing so, but if I must, I will, just to allay these concerns if more people than Steel actually have them. 

[Steeldancer he/him]

20 minutes ago, Seventh Saint said:

I no longer suspect Devotary, but with the information I had at the time, could you honestly blame me? Working with limited time, that post would jump out as immediately suspect with the info I had at the time, and I was hardly the only one decrying her.

AGHHHH this is LITERALLY my argument for why I voted on Guest! How in the heck was I supposed to know that Roadwalker had a more important role, just like you wouldn’t know that Roadwalker had a more important role and therefore making Devotary much less suspicious!? Your entire argument for that vote being evil is that I somehow knew his role. Which I didn’t. I didn’t vote on Roadwalker because both the benefit of the doubt and supposedly a low information lynch, which is exactly what you just pointed out. I voted on the suspicious person. What else do you want from me?! The exact same logic that makes me sound evil makes you sound evil too! 

20 minutes ago, Seventh Saint said:

t often resigned villager who sounds slightly exasperated

I WONDER WHY???? Crazed frustrated laughter

 yes, you do have a couple valid points. However, I never said Alvrons tie making clears him. It’s just not suspicious either. It’s just... him. And I get being busy, I really do. It’s just... agh. 

Also, at the point I voted on Guest, the lynch was very much not set in stone. There were only 2 votes on him, and there were 12 hours left in the turn. It would have made much more sense for me to vote on someone else, like Rae, or anyone else who had a single vote on them in order to push momentum on a different lynch. As I mentioned earlier I probably would have never taken my vote off of Rae if I were evil, therefore lowering the momentum on Guest and Roadwalker. Unless it turns out Rae is evil, which would just mess with my head at this point. Then I never would have voted on her in the first place either. 

Look, I’ve been voted on and lynched for a lot of reasons, but for voting on a genuinely suspicious individual is a new one. I didn’t know either Guest or Roadwalker were Spammers, or their relative value to the spammer team. All I knew was that guest made an over the top suspicious vote (even going back and reading it, it just oozes suspicious), and I voted on him for it. Expecting me to somehow know that Roadwalker was more valuable and vote on him is an unrealistic expectation. And congratulations you have brought out the head pounding on wall levels of exasperation. 

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

3 minutes ago, NotASteelClone said:

AGHHHH this is LITERALLY my argument for why I voted on Guest! How in the heck was I supposed to know that Roadwalker had a more important role, just like you wouldn’t know that Roadwalker had a more important role and therefore making Devotary much less suspicious!? Your entire argument for that vote being evil is that I somehow knew his role. Which I didn’t. I didn’t vote on Roadwalker because both the benefit of the doubt and supposedly a low information lynch, which is exactly what you just pointed out. I voted on the suspicious person. What else do you want from me?! The exact same logic that makes me sound evil makes you sound evil too! 

I WONDER WHY???? Crazed frustrated laughter

 yes, you do have a couple valid points. However, I never said Alvrons tie making clears him. It’s just not suspicious either. It’s just... him. And I get being busy, I really do. It’s just... agh. 

Also, at the point I voted on Guest, the lynch was very much not set in stone. There were only 2 votes on him, and there were 12 hours left in the turn. It would have made much more sense for me to vote on someone else, like Rae, or anyone else who had a single vote on them in order to push momentum on a different lynch. As I mentioned earlier I probably would have never taken my vote off of Rae if I were evil, therefore lowering the momentum on Guest and Roadwalker. Unless it turns out Rae is evil, which would just mess with my head at this point. Then I never would have voted on her in the first place either. 

Look, I’ve been voted on and lynched for a lot of reasons, but for voting on a genuinely suspicious individual is a new one. I didn’t know either Guest or Roadwalker were Spammers, or their relative value to the spammer team. All I knew was that guest made an over the top suspicious vote (even going back and reading it, it just oozes suspicious), and I voted on him for it. Expecting me to somehow know that Roadwalker was more valuable and vote on him is an unrealistic expectation. And congratulations you have brought out the head pounding on wall levels of exasperation. 

Very well. While I don’t have time to respond to all this, Steeldancer. You raise valid points, and keeping you around a bit longer hopefully won’t hurt us much if you actually are a spammer. 

To everyone else, might I suggest myself as a compromise choice? I will survive this lynch, which will clear me (at least temporarily), and hopefully allow for an analysis of this cycle untinted by the fear I may be evil. If I’m not an option, I’d be fine with a Fura lynch, though admittedly I haven’t looked into that very closely.

[Steeldancer he/him]

10 minutes ago, Seventh Saint said:

Very well. While I don’t have time to respond to all this, Steeldancer. You raise valid points, and keeping you around a bit longer hopefully won’t hurt us much if you actually are a spammer. 

To everyone else, might I suggest myself as a compromise choice? I will survive this lynch, which will clear me (at least temporarily), and hopefully allow for an analysis of this cycle untinted by the fear I may be evil. If I’m not an option, I’d be fine with a Fura lynch, though admittedly I haven’t looked into that very closely.

Ok look, your response and claim of a double life makes me less suspicious of you. If you were a spammer, doing that would be near suicide, and in general a very dangerous gambit. A fura lynch... now that I think about it, I did role name claim to him, and he never did so back, which is just rude TBH. And Elephant pointed out that Fura was around the entire time but kept their vote on Rae, just like I just said I would have done if I were evil. Therefore, per my own argument for not being evil, Fura seems a prime candidate for being evil. 

[Elandera she/her]

With a substantial break (finally) in my hectic weekend, I decided to get some analysis done. My top suspect at the moment is Rand. It's not much, but it's more than I was able to glean while reading the prior cycle. @Aranduensis

He states in the first one that voting on an inactive (who turned out to be Temptation) felt like a bad idea, then followed it up with saying he didn't feel strongly about any lynches. His removal of his vote on myself was four hours after his first post after my real analysis post. While that’s not obvious spammer, it seemed to come after realizing there was no longer a strong argument against me, nor anyone else willing to join. Combine that with the placement of his vote (the first after Ada posted the first, and very reasonable, argument against me while Temptation was in the lead) and it just feels off. He then never placed a final vote, which again isn’t 100% spammer (could have been RL things), but all together gives me a bad vibe.

I'm willing to give Steel the benefit of the doubt. His recent arguments do seem to fit his exasperated village playstyle (sorry Steel ). And at the time, his votes were reasonable, if not poorly timed with the results of last turn's kills.

@tiny wilson, that one I was waiting for validation on has proved themselves.

[Droughtbringer]

I apologize for my absence, had a writing conference the other day, and family stuff today, should start being more active tomorrow. It's late. 

(Sorry)

[Young Bard he/him]

I would be happy for a lynch on Steel, but I feel like we need to broaden our discussion a little.

I'm just going to type up raw thoughts as I go through Day 1 (mostly skimming until I get to the part where Road/Guest become the top lynch candidates):

- A lot of jokes and trollish stuff - makes sense given this game and the fact it's Day 1. NAI.
- HPoLT votes on Elandara, is deliberately vague about why. Seems to me like a satirical take on Orlok's style - it made me laugh, as the victim of that a couple times, so I really want to say slight village, even though I probably shouldn't.
- Fura votes Arand, criticising Arand for clearing Elephant too early. The post in question is one line, in which Rand says they don't want to publish their speculations on Elephant's role, which seems fair enough to me. Neutral - I disagree with Fura, but I think it's consistent with Villager behaviour.
- Fura swaps from Arand to Ada, after Gammalv's analysis. NAI.
- Banter and Fun.
- @Araris Valerian votes on Gammalv on a 'hunch' - I'd be really curious to hear some reasoning, or, failing that, whether you have any new hunches. Besides that, it's consistent with what I remember of his behaviour, so NAI.
- Elandera votes on Roadwalker. Just a poke-vote, trying to get Road to be active. We can't clear Elan for this, since it's perfectly consistent with Spambot behaviour to distance, and assume that an actual candidate will emerge, or that Roadwalker will post and the lynch will move elsewhere. (Also, I went through and checked to be on the safe side, and can confirm that Roadwalker was the only person not to have posted at that point, though a few people had posted just one joke line.)
- @Kidpen says he would vote on someone, but he doesn't want to vote when he wouldn't be able to remove it in time for rollover. That seems... suspicious to me. As a villager, if you vote on someone before going offline, you can hope that other villagers that will be online will vote for a better candidate if a better candidate exists. It makes more sense in my mind, IMO, from an Spambot standpoint - he says it would be a 'pokevote', which means that he might have been thinking about putting it on Roadwalker. If he's a teammate of Road, and he's not going to be online to remove the vote later, that's a very good reason not to vote.
- Sapphire adds vote on Roadwalker. Sapphire's confirmed good, so not too much point in me analysing this.
- Itiah adds vote to Roadwalker. Considering that they also suggest that Guest/Road were both Spambots Weekend One, a theory that turned out to be true, Itiah is very strongly village in my mind.
- Arand votes Elandera. This could be seen as an attempt to divert the lynch away from Road? But, it could just as easily be a villager with poor timing. Also, Arand's source of suspicion is Elan 'hard-clearing' Fura too early, when in reality Elan does no such thing (they say they lean village on Fura, but I read that as them trying to post their thoughts as much as they're able to on Day 1, and is certainly a long way from hard-clearing anybody). In some ways, I feel a Spambot Arand would have been able to find a more solid argument against a villager than what they gave, but on the other hand, the number of game relevant posts up to this point is actually quite low, so maybe not. Moderate suspicion.
- CadCom votes Itiah, saying the sudden bandwagon is suspicious on someone who hadn't been online since the first vote was suspicious. I don't think a Spambot would be so overt in defending a teammate, and would find subtler means of trying to get a villager lynched, so I'm actually leaning slight village.
- Ada votes on Elandera (who's now at two votes) to 'make things interesting/add some pressure'. I think one of Ada or Arand would likely be evil and trying to swing the lynch off of, but I really doubt two Spambots would bandwagon together. So, slight Spambot, depending on whether Arand is a Spambot or not.
- I vote for Mailliw.
- Steel votes HPoLT. Claims later this is due to it HPoLT advocating mayoring, when I viewed the same post as just a joke post. I can see this as just a paranoid villager reading through and trying to look for anything that might be a tell, and again, I'd have thought an Elim might have found a better excuse to lynch someone. NAI, but something I might change my mind on when I look back later on.
- Elan defends themself, tries to push for more from people who haven't really contributed. Village gut lean, combined with the fact that I highly doubt the top three candidates for the lynch that cycle were all Eliminators.
- Ada retracts from Elan, but does not vote on a new candidate. Posts votecount.
- Seventh Saint votes Steel, citing Steel's vote as flimsy. I have a hard time reading this - it feels different to Saint's usual style, but they said they're in a rush, so that's probably why. I could also see this as a desperate Eliminator trying to find an argument that sticks against a villager. Slight Spambot, mainly due to timing.
- Maill swaps from HPoLT to Arand. I don't agree with their analysis, but I think it's generally more likely to be a Villager clasping at straws.
- Fura votes for HPoLT, saying that they've posted a lot with very little analysis. Given it was still Day 1, that seems a little unfair, but then again, given that it was still Day 1, I can't expect them to have a much stronger argument. So... NAI? In some ways, I'm tempted to lynch HPoLT, simply because everyone seems to have voted on them, and figuring out their alignment could well tell us a good deal about everyone left alive, even though I'm not that suspicious of HPoLT themselves.
- Guest adds vote to HPoLT - Makes me trust Fura more, since I doubt multiple Spambots would want to form a voting block like that.
- HPoLT votes on Guest for bandwagonning.
- Guest retracts their vote on HPoLT. It's not clear whether they always intended to do that, and it was a part of the joke, or whether they were backpedalling.
- I swap my vote from Maill to Road. 4 votes on Road, 1 on HPoLT, 1 on Guest at this point in time.
- Rand says Guest is a bit off, but does not vote on them. Possibly a distancing tactic, while they discuss whether to bus Guest in the Spambot doc. More likely, I'm tunnelling. NAI.
- Wilson votes on Guest. 4 votes on Road, 2 on Guest. A Spambot Wilson would have to be fairly gutsy to try this right now - with just one vote on Guest (though more conversation), it would still be much easier to swing onto a villager. Then again, it's turtles all the way down, and Wilson seems the type who'd try something like that. Slight village, depending on who else is voting on Guest.
- Steel votes on Guest. 
- Things get crazy right about here - this is about the last 15 minutes of the cycle, I think.
- Gammalv will Gammalv. Ties the votes by voting on Guest.
- xxGaea defends herself of being a Spambot by saying they're not a Spambot. Strong Elim, lynch immediately.
- Elephant votes Guest, to mess with Alv. Confirmed good.
- Gammalv will Gammalv. Ties the vote by voting on Road.
- Elephant swaps to Road, to break the tie. Confirmed good.
- Crimsn Chanarach steps in to end the tie shenanigans, voting on Road. If we are accepting the theory that the Elims want to kill off the roleless Eliminator over the one with a role, then this is a slight village post.
- Gammalv votes on Guest, hoping to recreate the tie.
- Elephant retracts from Road in the last seconds of the game, recreating the tie in the last seconds of the game. So, without vote shenanigans, this would have been up to the gods of luck and chance.
- As it is, Itiah's vote disappeared off Road, and Jon's was moved to Guest. So Guest was lynched, 5-3. Unless the Vashikaran can roleblock votes (which I don't think they can, but I'd appreciate clarification), then the manipulations were done by villagers. Which presumably means the Elims were expecting either Road to die, or a draw and a random lynch. Or they were inactive. Which... surprises and troubles me.

Suppose that the elims decided to save their active member over their inactive one, instead of going for the more powerful role. In that case, it would strongly suggest that Crimsn Chanarach is an Eliminator, since they helped to break the tie shenanigans for Road over Guest. However, that's a big if, so I'm put them as a slight Elim, but it's worth looking into (and if the Vashikaran can roleblock votes, then they're probably a villager?)

...Wow, that took a long time. Anyway, hopefully it's worthwhile if it catches us another couple Spambots. 

TL;DR/My reads:
Strong Village: Itiah, [someone who proved they had a village role in PM's but who I don't want to out, and who I don't want converted by the Babaji]
Slight Village: Cadcom, Gammalv/AlVoidus, Elandera, Maill, Fura
Neutral: Wilson, HPoLT
Slight Elim: Adavantos, Seventh Saint, Crimsn Chanarach
Moderate Elim: Rand, Kidpen
Everyone else: Probably haven't posted much, I'd like to hear more from them.

I think I'll vote Arand, since I don't think they've given much of an explanation of their votes last cycle, and I'd like to hear a bit more from them about why they tried to shift the vote away from Road, and tried to cast suspicion on Elandera.

[Arrae]

2 hours ago, Seventh Saint said:

Very well. While I don’t have time to respond to all this, Steeldancer. You raise valid points, and keeping you around a bit longer hopefully won’t hurt us much if you actually are a spammer. 

To everyone else, might I suggest myself as a compromise choice? I will survive this lynch, which will clear me (at least temporarily), and hopefully allow for an analysis of this cycle untinted by the fear I may be evil. If I’m not an option, I’d be fine with a Fura lynch, though admittedly I haven’t looked into that very closely.

This seems rather like an overreaction. You would offer yourself up for the lynch just because one player (who others have found suspicious) has claimed suspicion of you? I would almost think that a spammer ploy to draw pity from others.

A list of the players who did not vote on Roadwalker or Guest (based off of the manipulated vote tally, so speak up if you have been wrongly counted in this list).

Droughtbringer, Xinoehp512, Furamirionin,d Randuir, I think I am here., Fifth Scholar, Cadmium Compounder, Lumgol, Snipexe, Rathmaskal, Araris, Kidpen, Hemalurgic Headshot, Amanuensis, Sapphire Elephant, Walin

I notice that Araris has not posted today. Perhaps a vote will encourage him to contribute.

[Furamirionind]

Just got back from robotics, I will hopefully respond to my accusations tomorrow when I have more energy, but just to nip this rumor in the bud:

3 hours ago, NotASteelClone said:

A fura lynch... now that I think about it, I did role name claim to him, and he never did so back, which is just rude TBH. And Elephant pointed out that Fura was around the entire time but kept their vote on Rae, just like I just said I would have done if I were evil. Therefore, per my own argument for not being evil, Fura seems a prime candidate for being evil. 

I did role claim to you... I even apologized for responding to your claim so late after you claimed to me...

I want to point out though, that I never said I would role claim, I was only asking if you WOULD be willing to.  I still hadn't made up my mind at that point if I wanted to go down that path this game. (I think I asked a similar question about role(name)claiming to just about all the people I PMed, so they could also check their PMs and verify that is what I was saying. I used similar language with everyone when asking that question.)

I even told you Itiah and another player were to be suspected if I was killed last night... I intentionally sent it right before rollover as I didn't want to chance them or me dying if you were an elim.

EDIT: Hopefully I am not breaking any rules by editing this in after others have posted.
Just wanted to say that I reread my PM with Steel, and while I did respond with my role, I never technically apologized for responding late. To which I would like to apologize to Steel for doing... Granted, I still did it for a reason. : P

Edited March 25, 2019 by Furamirionind
Ok, for some reason I said I wouldnt like to apologize to Steel? I meant to say I WOULD like to... lol

[Mailliw73 he/him]

3 hours ago, Sapphire Elephant said:

@tiny wilson My suspicion of Rae last night was simply because they were the first person to come to mind when you asked. I hadn't done my analysis yet, so that wasn't really an accurate suspicion at the time. I would have cleared it up had PMs stayed active. Sorry for any misunderstanding. Please also understand that revealing this involves a bit of trust, and that I expect to not die tonight, and that you will be discreet.

Hmm. Understood. Just to be completely clear, does your PM have the word “yourself” in the title? 

2 hours ago, Seventh Saint said:

Very well. While I don’t have time to respond to all this, Steeldancer. You raise valid points, and keeping you around a bit longer hopefully won’t hurt us much if you actually are a spammer. 

To everyone else, might I suggest myself as a compromise choice? I will survive this lynch, which will clear me (at least temporarily), and hopefully allow for an analysis of this cycle untinted by the fear I may be evil. If I’m not an option, I’d be fine with a Fura lynch, though admittedly I haven’t looked into that very closely.

I don’t think either you or Steel is a good choice for a lynch. I’ve gotten pretty village vibes from both of you this cycle. While the suggesting of yourself for the lynch is something I’ve definitely done as evil and pulled off, I’m not inclined to really test that at this stage. I propose neither of you is lynched. 

1 hour ago, Elandera said:

With a substantial break (finally) in my hectic weekend, I decided to get some analysis done. My top suspect at the moment is Rand. It's not much, but it's more than I was able to glean while reading the prior cycle. @Aranduensis

He states in the first one that voting on an inactive (who turned out to be Temptation) felt like a bad idea, then followed it up with saying he didn't feel strongly about any lynches. His removal of his vote on myself was four hours after his first post after my real analysis post. While that’s not obvious spammer, it seemed to come after realizing there was no longer a strong argument against me, nor anyone else willing to join. Combine that with the placement of his vote (the first after Ada posted the first, and very reasonable, argument against me while Temptation was in the lead) and it just feels off. He then never placed a final vote, which again isn’t 100% spammer (could have been RL things), but all together gives me a bad vibe.

I'm willing to give Steel the benefit of the doubt. His recent arguments do seem to fit his exasperated village playstyle (sorry Steel ). And at the time, his votes were reasonable, if not poorly timed with the results of last turn's kills.

@tiny wilson, that one I was waiting for validation on has proved themselves.

Concerning the validation, was it the difficult or the simpler one? It may affect my vote. 

I’m interested in this recent focus on Arand for sure. I’d also like to hear more from @Cadmium Compounder Because he’s been quieter than normal this game. Also, I’ll echo the call for Araris. I’ve been impressed with his analysis recently(especially when he basically caught me) and I’d like to hear his thoughts. 

Once I get confirmation from Elandera about my question above, I’ll place a vote. 

[Sapphire Elephant]

2 minutes ago, tiny wilson said:

Hmm. Understood. Just to be completely clear, does your PM have the word “yourself” in the title? 

Yes it does. 

[Steeldancer he/him]

7 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Just got back from robotics, I will hopefully respond to my accusations tomorrow when I have more energy, but just to nip this rumor in the bud:

I did role claim to you... I even apologized for responding to your claim so late after you claimed to me...

I want to point out though, that I never said I would role claim, I was only asking if you WOULD be willing to.  I still hadn't made up my mind at that point if I wanted to go down that path this game. (I think I asked a similar question about role(name)claiming to just about all the people I PMed, so they could also check their PMs and verify that is what I was saying. I used similar language with everyone when asking that question.)

I even told you Itiah and another player were to be suspected if I was killed last night... I intentionally sent it right before rollover as I didn't want to chance them or me dying if you were an elim.

Huh, I apologize for that. You did indeed claim to me, I only saw Joes closing of the PM and never actually looked at it beyond that. 

However, the suspicion for your vote still stands; although I am less inclined to be suspicious of you now given the name of your role. Did you use your role for the purpose implied by it? 

[Furamirionind]

2 minutes ago, NotASteelClone said:

However, the suspicion for your vote still stands; although I am less inclined to be suspicious of you now given the name of your role. Did you use your role for the purpose implied by it? 

If you are thinking in general terms, then yes.

I haven't thought too hard about what I should/should not say in response to people's votes, this may either help me, or get me lynched... However, as PMs are no longer open:

@tiny wilson Hmm, given the circumstances, it was probably rude of me not to elaborate. My role requires I vote on someone. I assume this is enough for you to infer the rest.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

1 minute ago, Furamirionind said:

If you are thinking in general terms, then yes.

I haven't thought too hard about what I should/should not say in response to people's votes, this may either help me, or get me lynched... However, as PMs are no longer open:

@tiny wilson Hmm, given the circumstances, it was probably rude of me not to elaborate. My role requires I vote on someone. I assume this is enough for you to infer the rest.

Interesting. Definitely a new quirk. Like Steel, I’d be interested in what you learned. But probably after this turn. 

[Sapphire Elephant]

You know, sometimes, I really would like to have a clue what the heck everyone else is talking about. 

[Furamirionind]

@tiny wilson Sorry to keep pinging you, but I just realized, what you claimed to me does not seem match the writeup for D1. Do you have an explanation for that?

2 minutes ago, Sapphire Elephant said:

You know, sometimes, I really would like to have a clue what the heck everyone else is talking about. 

Sorry. : /

[Steeldancer he/him]

6 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

If you are thinking in general terms, then yes.

I haven't thought too hard about what I should/should not say in response to people's votes, this may either help me, or get me lynched... However, as PMs are no longer open:

@tiny wilson Hmm, given the circumstances, it was probably rude of me not to elaborate. My role requires I vote on someone. I assume this is enough for you to infer the rest.

Huh. Interesting. Fura

[Elandera she/her]

21 minutes ago, tiny wilson said:

Concerning the validation, was it the difficult or the simpler one? It may affect my vote.

It was the simpler one. I'm still not sure how to confirm the other, especially with the PMs closed.

[Sapphire Elephant]

I love how the thread goes dead for a few hours, and then everyone starts posting at once, but now everyone is being extremely cryptic and hedgy about what they're revealing. And I still haven't figured out why Itiah keeps posting in chinese. How am I supposed to gain suspicions of people if everyone being all cryptic about things.