Long Game 43: Under the Banner of Adonalsium

[shanerockes]

I've been on silverlight since N0 and I went inactive because school so I wouldn't have any chance to steal a shard. That's my defense for this and as a poke vote,  Droughtbringer only because he hasn't said a lot and I know he sees everything.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 hours ago, Young Bard said:

The thing that surprised me most is that I would have expected an as-close-as-possible even distribution of refugees between planets.

Randomly distributed does not necessarily mean equally distributed. Depending on how many refugees went to Nalthis, Ruin could have gone to a planet other than Roshar and there would still be a good chance that the distribution was random.

@Elbereth, @Megasif, @Magestar, @Hemalurgic Headshot, you four are on Nalthis. Can any of you tell us how many of you were refugees and how many of you worldhopped to Nalthis?

[Droughtbringer]

8 minutes ago, shanerockes said:

I've been on silverlight since N0 and I went inactive because school so I wouldn't have any chance to steal a shard. That's my defense for this and as a poke vote,  Droughtbringer only because he hasn't said a lot and I know he sees everything.

. . .

Have i said much? No I have not. 

Should I say more? Yes.

Do I know everything? Not in the slightest. 

 

44 minutes ago, livinglegend said:

Given recent analysis, I'll place my vote on Eternum. 

I don't think Eternum has been active enough to be Ruin, at this point. I'd expect it to be Fifth over Eternum. 

[Magestar he/him]

Well, I apparently didn't post the rather long thing I had written up earlier...

And now it's gone.  And I don't remember enough of what I said to try and write it up again.  I did want to vote on Drought, though.  I remember that.

DoS is right about the distribution for Nalthis.

I think El and I arrived this cycle, and I was placed here randomly.  I was still hanging out on Silverlight.

And that's all I've got for now.

Sorry I can't be more active.

[Stick. she/her]

50 minutes ago, Droughtbringer said:

I don't think Eternum has been active enough to be Ruin, at this point. I'd expect it to be Fifth over Eternum. 

I agree. You don't have to be terribly active to be a Vessel, technically, since all you need to do is send an order to steal investiture and possibly get that Shard, but to overuse your power like Ruin has, you probably do need to be active. 

37 minutes ago, Magestar said:

Well, I apparently didn't post the rather long thing I had written up earlier...

And now it's gone.  And I don't remember enough of what I said to try and write it up again.  I did want to vote on Drought, though.  I remember that.

You alread did that, Mage. Here:

6 hours ago, Magestar said:

Or maybe get to use one of their actions to gain an investiture of the shard they have.  That makes sense to me, balance-wise, and also from a flavor perspective it works out ok.

Anyway, I don't really claim to understand how balance works, and yeah, it's unfortunate that their aren't more kills, but I think the GMs probably know what they're doing. And, to start the day, I'm going to put a vote on Drought.

 

 

Why do you want Drought lynched, though?

As much as I don't like the idea of not using this lynch to try and get an elim, killing Ruin as early as possible is probably the best course of action to take. Fifth, I believe is most likely to be Ruin. 

You know, Ruin, if you think that there's even a slight possibility of your win con being compatible with the village's, just claim in-thread. We can try and see if we can win together. Fat chance, though.

Edited March 27, 2018 by _Stick_
weird quote thing happened

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

I can win with Ruin.  

[Stick. she/her]

You can win with Hoid and Khriss, too.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Yeah, but Hoid is HARD!  I mean, his faction has to have 2-3 people in the end, and I have to be the only/one of two others left.

[Magestar he/him]

26 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

You alread did that, Mage. Here:

*blinks*

Uh.  I guess I forgot about that.

Wow.

As far as why I want to lynch Drought, it's mostly because of gut feelings.

I'm also totally for lynching Ruin, if we figure out who that's most likely to be.  I don't really want to see any more planets destroyed.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Taladain is BUSY!

[Hemalurgic Headshot he/him]

2 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Randomly distributed does not necessarily mean equally distributed. Depending on how many refugees went to Nalthis, Ruin could have gone to a planet other than Roshar and there would still be a good chance that the distribution was random.

@Elbereth, @Megasif, @Magestar, @Hemalurgic Headshot, you four are on Nalthis. Can any of you tell us how many of you were refugees and how many of you worldhopped to Nalthis?

All of us are refugees. I know, since my aspect has been keeping an eye on the planet for nearly the entire game.

Also, @Steeldancer. I suggest you make use of your Returned abilities.

Edited March 27, 2018 by Hemalurgic Headshot

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Can Culty please put me in at least 1 PM?  Thanks.  I still do not have a PM.

[Megasif he/him]

I was on silverlight and sent to Nalthis randomly upon silverlight's destruction.

[Eternum he/him]

Yeah, nah, I'm not Ruin. I only got kicked off of Silverlight because Ruin destroyed it

I'm on Roshar at the moment.

[Steeldancer he/him]

I will not be using my abilities yet. I want to finish my RP first. Then I will sacrifice myself nobly to give someone the investiture they need. 

[Elbereth she/her]

Sorry for not getting on in the last couple of days. I had a post written up Sunday morning, but it got deleted and I didn’t have time to rewrite it until today. Given that, some posts from the last day: 

Drake:

Quote

With regard to Ruin blowing up Braize, I honestly did not remember that suggestion. I was paying more attention to the suggestion made for Odium, I suppose. I had recently been relieved of my position of Hoid, and was thinking that shattered shards would be really annoying for Hoid. Still, while I don't really remember it, you are probably right that I did think blowing up Braize was a good idea at the time. Although if I were distancing myself from Ruin, I probably would not have been the first person to make a post raising awareness about the threat Ruin poses, arguably greater than that of Odium. The threat of Ruin may be moot though, as Ruin has declined to destroy another planet last night, and may not be anti-village.

Pointing out this bit because it just strikes me as off. Not sure why, and not nearly enough to cast a vote for it, but I don't like it.

Pyro:

Quote

 

Okay.  @A Joe in the Bush, here is how I can help the village:  By telling you what I have deduced.

Assertion: Odium is Khriss.  That is the most reasonable explanation I can come up with.

1. I was not attacked the night when I claimed Survival.  There are 4 possibilities.                         

1a.  Odium wasn't on when I claimed.

1b.  Odium decided to go after Cultivation, like I said.

1c.  Odium is in the hands of Khriss, and therefore didn't need to attack me.                                         

1d.  Odium planned to launder his Shard, and therefore was trying to help the village.  Unlikely.

2. I was not attacked last night (in game, not real time).  There is only really 2 options.                                                                                                           2a.  Odium is in the hands of Khriss, and therefore didn't need to attack me.                                                                                                                           2b.  Odium planned to launder his Shard, and therefore was trying to help the village.  More likely than last time, but not by much.

EDIT:Sorry for double-posting!  I thought someone else had posted.

 

@TheYoungPyromancer So, I disagree with this logic slightly - there are other potential reasons that Odium wouldn’t kill you, and I don’t think it conclusive by any means - but my main question is why you claim that Odium is specifically Khriss. Why? Why not Hoid? I see no reason the same logic couldn’t apply there - so why not even mention Khriss? 

Bard reminded me that there’s a post of livinglegend’s from even earlier that I forgot to ever comment on. 

Livinglegend:

Quote

 

You and Orlock are both correct that it is a lot of fun to talk about shards. Even more so than the conversion factions because I would assume that most if not all of us are slightly infatuated with the idea of becoming a vessel. Plus, with two to one shards to players compared with the almost five to one odds of being converted to a faction, we all have higher hope of obtaining shardic power. /rant

More importantly, I feel that we need to treat all potentially thirteen conversion factions as threats. @Seonid I apologize if this is answered elsewhere, but does the game end as soon as one of the fourteen factions reaches their goal? 

If that is the case, it seems to me that Hoid and Kriss have win conditions that take longer than some of the shards, so the shards will take precedence. You're right we can't ignore them, but we can fight them in an organized manner.

(Wow, rereading this I sound angry. That is not my intention. you brought up valid points and I appreciate you challenging the way I have thought about this.)

 

@livinglegendYou don’t sound angry at all, don’t worry. Yes, the Shards are fun to talk about - that’s my point. I dispute, however, that they’re higher priority than the conversion teams because of how much time they take. First, I’d argue that if this game is balanced (which it honestly seems to be this time, particularly in comparison to previous games), all win conditions should take about the same length of time. Those that don’t probably shouldn’t cause the game to end. Secondly, we can make fairly good guesses about many of the Shardic win conditions, and importantly what many of them probably have in common is that we can see them: Ruin probably needs to destroy all or a certain number of planets, for instance. And we know whenever a planet is destroyed. Similarly, Shattering and Returning and creating aspects of Autonomy are all quite obvious to the village. It’s a lot easier to tell how close a Shard is to its win con, and we know exactly what it can do. Neither of those is true of the conversion teams. We can’t keep track of them nearly as well, so even if the Shards do have sooner win conditions, I’d argue the conversion teams are still at least as much of a priority. 

Rand:

Quote

I'd say there are three reasons for not doing so, at least one of which is good. First, there's the risk of me getting taken by the shardic win-con if I use the shards power too much. It would be awkward If I use its power now, pass it on using my other action, and then get told I now have ambition's win-con.

I’ll note that if you did change win condition the same turn as you passed it, it wouldn’t actually pass, for precisely that reason.

17 hours ago, Sart said:

Well, at least we have the lynch right? Well, no, actually, that won't help us either. Let's suppose we lynch a Villager today. Well, that's bad. Don't worry though, Endowment will just bring them back as a Returned. Okay, well, what if we get lucky, and lynch a bad guy? The team might have Ambition, meaning they can resurrect their teammates, or they could have a way to gain an extra life. This is going to grind the game to the halt. It's Day 4, and only 1 person is dead. If this keeps up, we won't be done with this game till June. This is simply absurd. Eventually the village would triumph over the elims, but it would be a long drawn out process that wouldn't be fun for anyone.

In addition to Rand's comments (all of which I agree with), I'll note that the lynch is more powerful than it seems right now, because the first cycle we had a no lynch and the second we voted likely-Survival despite knowing he wouldn't actually die. 

Also, what I'm particularly not fond of is the implication from your post that the game is intrinsically broken or that any of this is the GMs' fault, which I don't think it is at all. They didn't know that Odium would be released N0, or that they wouldn't kill (well, at least N1, given they could've been roleblocked with everyone else last night), or that Ruin wouldn't kill, or that Braize would be destroyed, or that we'd spend so much time on lynches that weren't actually useful. All of that is our fault as players. 

Last note is that while it'll take a while for people to die, we know that it's quite likely that there are Shards whose win conditions don't depend on death. It's entirely possible that one of those will end the game if achieved, and will likely take place in a normal amount of time as a result even if there's little death. 

7 hours ago, Young Bard said:

I may as well quickly verify this list is correct, and that I was on Silverlight until it exploded.

The thing that surprised me most is that I would have expected an as-close-as-possible even distribution of refugees between planets. The fact that there are 3 (2, if you don't count Steel as a refugee like Jon and Joe presumably are) makes me think that:

The rules explicitly state that players will be moved to a random world. So some variance is entirely expected. 

Other thoughts/vote probably coming later. 

 

Edited March 27, 2018 by Elbereth

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

3 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

I agree. You don't have to be terribly active to be a Vessel, technically, since all you need to do is send an order to steal investiture and possibly get that Shard, but to overuse your power like Ruin has, you probably do need to be active. 

You alread did that, Mage. Here:

Why do you want Drought lynched, though?

As much as I don't like the idea of not using this lynch to try and get an elim, killing Ruin as early as possible is probably the best course of action to take. Fifth, I believe is most likely to be Ruin. 

You know, Ruin, if you think that there's even a slight possibility of your win con being compatible with the village's, just claim in-thread. We can try and see if we can win together. Fat chance, though.

First of all, how has Ruin’s power been overused? He’s blown up two planets, sure, but he didn’t take any kind of action N2 as far as we know, and other than that has just been worldhopping. Eternum is definitely active enough to be Ruin. 

Being Ruin does not preclude somebody from being an Elim. I maintain that Khriss is likely in possession of Ruin at the moment, because I still see a lot of incentive for her trying for Ruin N0. 

I’d like to point out that Roshar is not the only location possible for Ruin, despite it being the most likely. I’d take a good hard look at Taldain, to be honest, as it’s nearly as powerful a planet as Roshar, and doesn’t have an Autonomic aspect protecting it. Could we get a list of players on Taldain from someone who’s there right now? However, I agree that Eternum and I are still the biggest suspects. 

I’d like a bit more explanation as to your vote on me, than just “you’re most likely to be Ruin.” While Bard has good analysis, it precludes Ruin being anywhere else right now, and leaves several suspects open. 

I’d still like those lists of people on planets during N2, before I vote on anybody for being Ruin. 

Finally, I’m going to pick one or two players and do some analysis on them. Drought probably, since he’s up for lynch, but a few others if I can as well.

[Stick. she/her]

17 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

First of all, how has Ruin’s power been overused? He’s blown up two planets, sure, but he didn’t take any kind of action N2 as far as we know, and other than that has just been worldhopping. Eternum is definitely active enough to be Ruin. 

Blowing up planets isn't the only action Ruin's Vessel can take. They also have a kill, which evidently hasn't been executed sucessfully, yet, but we don't really know if they have been sending the kill orders. And it's entirely possible (and even likely, if they're evil) that they have been investing in players. All of this can amount to an overuse of Ruin's power. Also, part of the write up seems to say that Ruin had been corrupted. 

17 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Could we get a list of players on Taldain from someone who’s there right now? However, I agree that Eternum and I are still the biggest suspects. 

I did post a list earlier and Devotary confirmed it.

17 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I’d like to point out that Roshar is not the only location possible for Ruin, despite it being the most likely. I’d take a good hard look at Taldain, to be honest, as it’s nearly as powerful a planet as Roshar, and doesn’t have an Autonomic aspect protecting it. Could we get a list of players on Taldain from someone who’s there right now? However, I agree that Eternum and I are still the biggest suspects. 

I’d like a bit more explanation as to your vote on me, than just “you’re most likely to be Ruin.” While Bard has good analysis, it precludes Ruin being anywhere else right now, and leaves several suspects open.

The Silverlight refugees on Taldain include Joe, Steel, and Jondesu. We can strike Steel off the list of possible Ruin Vessels, so that leaves Joe and Jondesu. Because you say so, I'll look at these (and other) possiblities tomorrow, when my eyes and head hopefully won't be hurting so much.:P 

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

I have found my evidence that I am not Ruin (which admittedly isn’t conclusive, but it’s better than nothing): I went for Odium N0, when under pressure for being Odium or Autonomy. You can see me reveal this to the thread on D1. 

I got put in a “chickens PM” with El, Sart, Jondesu, Ripple, and... shoot, I forget. Mage, I think? Don’t want to check the PM for fear of losing this post. Not really sure what Cultivation is playing at, but whatever. Anyone else get a weird PM? 

I could see Jondesu or Joe as Ruin, honestly. And people make a good point about Eternum’s activity patterns not matching with Ruin’s destruction patterns, but I hate using that as a way to clear people . To be fair, it’s possible Eternum went for Ruin N0 and just didn’t post in thread, so I’m not crossing him off our list of suspects. Out of Jondesu and Joe, I’d suspect Jondesu a bit more, but again, we don’t have much to go on, since Jondesu hasn’t said much, and @A Joe in the Bush just arrived (please say something, Joe, I’d like to see more from you). I might end up getting lynched just because I’m the most vocal, and I’d honestly hate that. Let’s see how this goes. I’ll poke Eternum for now, because even if he’s not Ruin, I’d like to hear him say something that isn’t just “I’m not Ruin.”

[Hemalurgic Headshot he/him]

I looked back at all of the previous page's posts concerning the placement of players on planets and have compiled a list, for convenience. Spoilered for length. Asterisk implies an aspect on that world, and italicized players were not refugees. I can vouch that Pyro was not a refugee to Taldain, because he told me before that he would be hopping there. Everyone on Scadrial and Nalthis are refugees.

Spoiler

 

Roshar:

Eternum

Shanerockes

Young Bard

Fifth Scholar

RippleGylf

Randuir

Taldain:

Joe in the Bush

Steeldancer

Jondesu

Devotary

Sart

Pyromancer

Arinian

Nalthis*:

HH

Elbereth

Magestar

Megasif

Scadrial*:

Drake

LivingLegend

Droughtbringer

 

Of the refugees on the vulnerable worlds (Roshar, Taldain), I suspect Eternum, Fifth, RippleGylf, Jondesu, and Joe. Young Bard is also a possibility, but no one has suspected them yet, mainly because they brought up the point first.

You may wonder why I included RippleGylf in my list. She took over from Monster, who was pretty active in the earlier game. Braize was destroyed N1 (D2), which was during the time that MonsterMetroid was active. Then notice no apparent action from Ruin N2. RippleGylf comes in N3, and now Silverlight has blown up.This train of thought places a lot of stress on what I presume Ripple's actions would be after being thrown into a random role. I assume that Ruin got their new win-con last Night. If Ripple is Ruin, and saw this new win-con as the first thing they see coming into the game, I would assume that the obvious course of action is to pursue that win-con.

This entire spiel relies heavily on "if", but should still be considered. We haven't heard a lot from Joe nor Jondesu.

2 hours ago, Eternum said:

Yeah, nah, I'm not Ruin. I only got kicked off of Silverlight because Ruin destroyed it

I'm on Roshar at the moment.

This is a very safe comment by Eternum. This literally applies to everyone who was on Silverlight, including Ruin.

Fifth has been discussed previously this turn by other players, and I'm feeling a bit lazy to go through all of their posts. However, being Ruin is perfectly within possibility for Fifth, but the flaw I see here is what happened N2. Specifically, nothing happened. This could have occurred from roleblock, inactivity, or prudence. Ruin could have been roleblocked, which would have been quite lucky and was probably done randomly. Anyone with an ability to roleblock and did so N2 should probably speak to test this theory (this applies only to Silverlight, Taldain, and Roshar. I had an eye on Scadrial and Nalthis). Ruin could have been inactive that cycle, and thus didn't put in an order. Or, Ruin chose not to take an action, neither destroy a world, submit a kill order, nor invest in a player. All of Ruin's actions take place during the Night turn, so to not do anything essentially throws away the whole cycle.

[A Joe in the Bush]

17 minutes ago, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

I looked back at all of the previous page's posts concerning the placement of players on planets and have compiled a list, for convenience. Spoilered for length. Asterisk implies an aspect on that world, and italicized players were not refugees. I can vouch that Pyro was not a refugee to Taldain, because he told me before that he would be hopping there. Everyone on Scadrial and Nalthis are refugees.

>.<  I literally just finished making that same list, and immedietly got notified that you had posted. Bah.

Anyway, first off, to get this out of the way, Where is Honor? Does anyone have it? Or is it on a world somewhere?

And secondly of Jondesu, Joe, Eternum, Shane, Bard, Scholar, and Ripple, I agree with Ripple as being Ruin.

I know I am not Ruin, and I don't believe that Shane is active enough for it. I don't even think he was online during the timeframe, from what i remember of the Submarine PM's read times. Fifth Scholar did in fact claim to be going for Odium, and Orlok's notes indicate that Orlok believed him, so I'm not going to question that. Jondesu has not read or posted in Taldain this cycle, so I doubt it's him, though that is weak. At the time, that left Bard, Eternum, and Ripple. Before HH's post, i discounted Ripple, since i assumed that Monster/Ripple had not been active enough. I trusted Bard due to his theory of 3/4 refugees plus Ruin meaning that Ruin was on Roshar. I couldn't find anything to clear Eternum. I would vote for Eternum if Ripple can defend themself.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

3 hours ago, Elbereth said:

Why? Why not Hoid?

 Because Hoid can't kill.

Wait, I missed out on ANOTHER group PM!?!  COME ON!

Edited March 28, 2018 by TheYoungPyromancer

[RippleGylf she/her]

Here are Monster's actions the past few rounds as I understand them:

N0: get Preservation's investiture
D1: nothing
N1: fail to get Preservation's investiture
D2: nothing
N3: get Honor's investiture
D3: nothing
N4: try for Honor's again; roleblocked and moved to Roshar

As a side note, I did not change Monster's action as he put it in last cycle.

I still don't know how half of the mechanics work this game, so it's difficult for me to judge based on mechanics and stuff, which makes figuring out who's Ruin straight up impossible. I don't think Eternum's actually put up a defense yet, so I'll put a vote on them until they do.

[Jondesu he/him]

I’ll go ahead and state that I’m not Ruin. I said this in the Taldain doc, but I’ve basically been lazy and didn’t want to deal with a world doc, and I was hoping to still get a charge of Investiture, which failed each time, and now is out of the picture. I was kicked out when Ruin destroyed Silverlight and ended up on Taldain.

[Hemalurgic Headshot he/him]

Ripple's list of Monster's actions matches up, so I'm less inclined to suspect her now. This leaves my other main suspects as Eternum, (Joe, though just to leave possibilities open) and Bard, who I don't have much evidence against, but I want to be thorough. Of these, I am most suspicious of Eternum.