Long Game 43: Under the Banner of Adonalsium

[Magestar he/him]

2 hours ago, randuir said:

which is either a clever bit of lampshade hanging (warning, tvtropes link)

Pff, what's wrong with TVtropes?   It's not like you can get lost in there for hours-

Woah, what just happened.  I swear I only looked at it for a minute or two.  

21 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

I've been playing almost exclusively on mobile so far, Rand, meaning I couldn't easily go back and look through posts as I posted, and my memory (especially my very short term memory, oddly) can be weird, so yeah, I had legitimately forgotten. I'll 'fess up to trying to take a charge from Preservation last night, which led to it being released, but I'm happy to see Shards released and hopefully some fun will follow.

I'll fess up to using Ambition's investiture to double tap Ambition and then I'll fess up to crying when I didn't get it.

No really though I'm not happy. 

[Megasif he/him]

That's... a lot of shards out of containment. 

Fifth - worldhopping to wherever we want? As in we don't have to be in silverlight for investiture anymore?

Tvtropes. I admit I have spoiled many a series for myself there.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Despite the fact that I can attempt to take two charges of Investiture, I STILL haven’t gotten one

And I’ve had no chance of getting the Shard because I already have one.

Edited March 20, 2018 by TheYoungPyromancer

[livinglegend]

I can't help but wonder if anyone has received investiture yet. I also went for ambition and did not receive the shard. I'll admit if I had, I'd probably already be playing to its win condition. Assuming that is the case, we now have a best case scenario 1 AC, 1 SoH, 8 vessels, and 12 17th Sharders. At worst we have 3 AC, 3 SoH,  8 Vessels and 8 17th Shard. In the latter case, we are already about to be outnumbered if the shards decide to work with the conversion factions especially if it's Odium or Ruin working with them. 

@Hemalurgic Headshot I'm sorry if this seems tunnel-y, but I still want to know what you meant when you said all your shard planning might have been wasted. Who were you planning with? I'd love to know what your plans were. I'll likely change my vote if you can answer these questions, but for now Hemalurgic Headshot. 

We have three shards left in containment and potentially 12 17th sharders left to go for them. Given this I'll bet the rest get released tonight. I will probably leave the planet as no one will be getting investiture tonight, and at the very least I might get some information on where/ who Autonomy is.

[Young Bard he/him]

Gah. It seems like uni will take up most of my time in the Monday-Wednesday period generally when I have classes (it's Tuesday night/technically very early Wednesday morning for me now) - me dropping off the Shard is mostly due to that. In the 'off-periods', I should have much more time to dedicate to the game, which is why my activity level will probably fluctuate somewhat. Which is why I'm posting a quick, after-midnight post now (again), and only have time for the things that are directly aimed at me, except for one or two quick points (again). I apologise for that.

 

5 hours ago, randuir said:

Young Bard

Starts by claiming that he's almost sure someone was lying, which is just a general odd thing to say if you're not going to explain it.

He's also focused a lot on the 17th's sudden death condition, but I wouldn't say that its harmful for the village, even if the past couple of cycles have proven this win-condition to be pretty unworkable at this stage.

There's one thing I'd like to ask him about (@Young Bard):

Quote

2. Huh. OK, then. Does anyone want to counter-claim this?

...Against my better judgement, Devotary, unless I hear a counter-claim. I do consider that my main piece of evidence, but if you were Khriss last time, then that explains that comment.

His comment at the start of the cycle about nothing having changed was your stated main reason to suspect him. How does him being Khriss in the Timeline-0 change this statement in a way that makes it less suspicious? I'm not really seeing how it makes it an less suspicious.

Overall, Young bard has been an active participant in discussion, and hasn't been afraid to push less popular plans. He doesn't seem to want to lie low, so I'm leaning village on him right now.

Yeah, the 17th Shard Sudden Death Win Con is definitely a blazing wreck at this point. It was worth a shot, though.

The specific comment (it's very early in the LG43a Night 0, if you want to find it) specifically had a line that struck me as off that was basically "Well, we've started again, but that doesn't matter to me at all since I have the same role..." <- I am ridiculously exaggerating this, but it struck me as very, very off, and it was a matter of trying to decide whether it was 1) my head being weird, which it turned out not to be, 2) him having a role and losing it, and not wanting to reveal the fact, or 3) him gaining a role, and not wanting to reveal the fact. I was assuming it wasn't Number 1, since I had nothing better to go on, so it was a matter of deciding whether it was Number 2 or Number 3. When he claimed Khriss, that was me going "So that's what caused that weird line" in my head, which meant it was a lot easier to write off Number 3 as a dud theory. Does that make sense? I'm not sure if I'm able to describe my thought process clearly this late at night.

Huh. Nobody's voted yet?

Hmmm... Arinian (@Arinian) - you contributed very little to the discussion, and when you did, you voted in favour of a no-lynch, when a lynch could have helped the village gain more information on the alignments of players. Could you elaborate on why you started a no-lynch vote?

As I said at the start, tomorrow I should be somewhat more able to get on properly tomorrow and properly comment on the game as a whole so far, and a much deeper analysis of several players. (Well, that's the theory, anyway. I find that things rarely work out like that.)

P.S. Me saying I thought someone was lying was a bluff that turned out to be completely wrong. I thought Pyromancer was lying when he said he was Survival the first game, as a way of encouraging people (including the actual Survival, who would presumably know he was lying after seeing a fake win con) to contact him. It turns out I, uhhh, misjudged Pyro, let's say.

P.P.S. (I did that analysis after about 4 hours of sleep. Don't judge.)

[Eternum he/him]

Hey, everyone. Finally got my life back into some semblance of order. Don't expect long analysis posts from me, however-- I'm going to be almoet exclusively ln mobile.

Anyway, I'll read through the thread and post any opinions. At this point they may be outdated, because conversions have probably happened, but there's no harm in trying.

[MonsterMetroid]

Well from what I can conclude I dont think Odium is in elims hands as I dont see any reason he wouldnt kill anyone if he was in elim hands, this doesnt mean he has completely village intentions though as he might have wanted to shatter cultivation and it got released before he could. Ruin seems somewhat village due to them removing Braize as quickly as possible. The tough part is does ruin try to remove another planet if he does I would have to assume the shardic intent would be in full effect if it isn't already. That means he will probably nee to pass the shard if he doesn't want to get overwhelmed.

Is anyone on Roshar currently? If so it might be good to note who is there so we can have an idea of possible people with investiture to kill seeing how both odium and ruin were released the first night the only way for people to obtain that investiture would be roshar or hemalurgy.

As for elim reads... I need to go back and look for patterns. It feels like another day one with no-one having died yet. @Seonidwould we know if anyone was attacked if they were protected by extra lives or abilities?

[Seonid he/him]

1 hour ago, MonsterMetroid said:

 @Seonidwould we know if anyone was attacked if they were protected by extra lives or abilities?

If the attack was protected by a protection role or absorbed by an extra life, yes.  If it was roleblocked, no

[DeTess she/her]

Alright, on to the next two, being Droughtbringer and Devotary.

Droughtbringer

Drought has posted quite a bit, but most of his posts are very short (with one major exception). There's really only one thign that has stood out to me enough to make note of, and that thing honestly involves a bit of tin-foil.

Quote

You are playing as I expect you to play, and are being amazingly active and useful, for everyone in the thread. I find myself agreeing with most of your posts, and I am getting a fairly strong village read from you.

This is probably me projecting my own paranoia about Orlok on someone else, but I find it odd that Droughtbringer is willing to village-read Orlok on his usual playstyle. In my experience Orlok always plays very active and is always very helpful with analysis, irrespective of his alignment. I'm fairly certain Drought also played the game that taught me this, so I'm wondering if he's trying to 'pocket' (that's the term, I think) Orlok.

This is me being incredibly paranoid, however, so take this  with an unhealthily large dose of salt.

So my read on Drought is neutral if I'm not being paranoid, or slightly elim if I'm being very paranoid.

Devotary

Devotary is definitely a fan of figuring out convoluted ways of getting things done (see PM-circle plan and 4-step-plan-to-confirm-pyro-is-survival plan).  His willingness to propose plans and figure out ways to help solve the game make me lean slightly village on him. I didn't agree with his PM-circle plan, and I think his method for confirming that pyro is survival is a bit too convoluted, but just because I disagree doesn't mean I suspect him.

There's one thing I'm wondering about though. Devotary was Khriss last cycle, and at the beginning of this cycle he stated that it made no difference for him. does that mean he is still Khriss? (I'm joking, obviously)

slight village lean.

 

Now, regarding our freed Shards. I agree with Monster that Odium probably isn't in elim hands. I'm not so certain one way or another about Ruin. Destroying Braize could have been meant to deny kills to the elims, but it could also have been part of a ploy to give his elim faction the sole use of kill actions (apart from odium, of course).

With Ambition now in play, it might be worthwhile to share what investiture you have if you're very certain you're going to die. If Ambition is village she'll know whether it is worthwhile to turn you into a shade if you die. If Ambition is an elim or neutral then sharing that information probably won't harm anyone, as long as you share that information only if you're certain you're going to die (such as when you're well ahead in the lynch and there are good arguments against you).

Dominion being in play means that you should be careful about who you tell about your intended actions. Loose lips sink ships or, in this case, get your game-winning action redirected in a way that makes you lose the game instead.

Cultivation being free probably means that a bunch of PM's will start appearing. Just remember that whoever has cultivation probably has some form of agenda that they try to further by letting people talk to eachother. That agenda could be 'Help the village win by furthering communication', but it could also be more nefarious. Make use of any PM's you happen to get, of course, but be vigilant!

There's not much to say about preservation, I think. If you do happen to turn into a mistborn you should be somewhat careful though, as your reactive kill could just as easily hit someone trying to set up a Pm as it could hit an attempted conversion.

[MonsterMetroid]

I guess I will poke the bear... I am suspicious of @Orlok Tsubodai and I believe he may have been converted, or become one of the new heads of elims for the following reasons

1. The first cycle of the first game he has a great idea with everyone listing their suspicions as the game goes on but he never brought it up for this game.
2. He has seem uncharacteristically detached from this game, initially I thought maybe it was RL but he has been in PM's a lot lately and shown online quite a bit.
3. He removed his vote and didn't place it on anyone else though he did know there was a strong possibility of a no-lynch.
4. This one is kind of a low blow reason but, he is Orlok, If I was an elim I would try to convert him for fear he would find me out early otherwise.

These things added together make me feel the need to get this out into the open earlier rather than later.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

1 minute ago, MonsterMetroid said:

I guess I will poke the bear... I am suspicious of @Orlok Tsubodai and I believe he may have been converted, or become one of the new heads of elims for the following reasons

1. The first cycle of the first game he has a great idea with everyone listing their suspicions as the game goes on but he never brought it up for this game.
2. He has seem uncharacteristically detached from this game, initially I thought maybe it was RL but he has been in PM's a lot lately and shown online quite a bit.
3. He removed his vote and didn't place it on anyone else though he did know there was a strong possibility of a no-lynch.
4. This one is kind of a low blow reason but, he is Orlok, If I was an elim I would try to convert him for fear he would find me out early otherwise.

These things added together make me feel the need to get this out into the open earlier rather than later.

I’m actually quite grateful to have been mentioned, Monster.

I have been detached recently. I’m not terribly well at all - hence the lack of activity over the last 36 hours. I’ve been in PMs with El recently - she contacted me at the turn of the cycle.

I retracted my vote at about 4am. I’d been awake at that point for nearly 22 hours. I didn’t have the energy to replace my vote, and had been trying to sleep for hours at that point. 

I’m about to go to a Society AGM, but should be online in a few hours, and will do my best to reengage.

[MonsterMetroid]

Ok if it is health issues then I apoligize and will remove my vote... but I am watching you  Orlok

[Droughtbringer]

28 minutes ago, randuir said:

so I'm wondering if he's trying to 'pocket' (that's the term, I think) Orlok.

What is pocket?

29 minutes ago, randuir said:

Cultivation being free probably means that a bunch of PM's will start appearing. Just remember that whoever has cultivation probably has some form of agenda that they try to further by letting people talk to each other. That agenda could be 'Help the village win by furthering communication', but it could also be more nefarious. Make use of any PM's you happen to get, of course, but be vigilant!

Along side that, do not trust PM groups that are formed, always assume that there is at least one Eliminator in any group with more than 2 people in it, and, even if there are only 2 people, do not trust the person in the PM solely off of what they say in PM, and take into account what they have said in the thread as well. The AG had an example of a "Strong Village Reads" PM group that had 2 elims in it, I believe, so please be very, very, careful with PMs, and, if you are Cultivation, please be careful how you set them up and use them.

Until we are proven otherwise, I would suggest that we treat all PMs as if they were created by an Elim Cultivation.

36 minutes ago, randuir said:

Dominion being in play means that you should be careful about who you tell about your intended actions. Loose lips sink ships or, in this case, get your game-winning action redirected in a way that makes you lose the game instead.

Please, please, be careful with your actions, last game we (The Elim!17th) had a lot of fun with Dominion, and probably won the game due to the information we had as a faction, and the control that Dominion gave us. Controlling Dominion could be a major boon for the Elims (either group), as they are going to have more information than the standard player with Dominion.

Devotion is a fairly scary Shard, and I'm not overly fond of the idea of the elims getting that, as they can just stop a lynch whenever they want to, Which can not only be used to protect a team mate, but also to create really scary IKYKs

 

 

@Seonid if Both Devotion and Preservation target the same person with their Shardic Action, which goes through? Will Preservation prevent the person from being targeted? Or will Devotion receive the Preservation affect?

I'd like to call out @shanerockes, as he has not been active, and I would love to see you come over and join us.

[Steeldancer he/him]

I will second Rand. Trust groups, bad. Also, why does everyone have PMs when I haven't seen a single one? Me sad 

[DeTess she/her]

9 minutes ago, Droughtbringer said:

What is pocket?

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/wiki/Pocketing

Basically, it's when an elim tries to get in a villager's good graces by defending them or otherwise acting favorably towards them.

Edited March 20, 2018 by randuir

[Droughtbringer]

7 minutes ago, randuir said:

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/wiki/Pocketing

Basically, it's when an elim tries to get in a villager's good graces by defending them or otherwise acting favorably towards them.

Huh, cool.
Also, I didn't know there was a Mafiauniverese wiki, thanks for giving me that resource.

 

8 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

I will second Rand. Trust groups, bad. Also, why does everyone have PMs when I haven't seen a single one? Me sad 

I haven't been in one either :/

[Hemalurgic Headshot he/him]

4 hours ago, livinglegend said:

@Hemalurgic Headshot I'm sorry if this seems tunnel-y, but I still want to know what you meant when you said all your shard planning might have been wasted. Who were you planning with? I'd love to know what your plans were. I'll likely change my vote if you can answer these questions, but for now Hemalurgic Headshot. 

I wasn't referring to my plans. It just seemed to me that the players as a whole had put a lot of effort into trying to plot out Shard actions and predict outcomes. I wanted to point out that it might be more complicated than previously thought. 

I haven't even gotten a PM yet, but then again, PMs are a bit more difficult to make this game.

Does this satisfy your curiosity?

[Sart he/him]

10 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Yay! Nice* Shards were released! 

*some restrictions may apply *cough*DOMINION*cough*

Actually, this isn’t too bad. I’m kind of surprised Odium didn’t kill anyone last night, but I’m not really complaining. Ruin blew up Braize, suggesting perhaps a team that wants a monopoly on kill actions? I’m not sure. I need to read back through the old thread. For now, things look much better than they did yesterday, and if we can release the remaining three Shards tomorrow, we can finally worldhop to wherever we please.

I disagree on this point. To prevent Hoid or Khriss from getting the sudden death win condition, we should leave one Shard in containment. That way, if one team actually tries to go for it, we'll immediately have a list of suspects, since everyone would theoretically leave Silverlight after the other two Shards are released. I propose we leave Devotion in containment. I don't want lynches getting cancelled in this game, and vote manipulation is more annoying than useful at this point. Honor is good for protecting against Odium, and Endowment can bring people back from the dead, both of which can be helpful for the Village. For that reason, let's free Honor and Endowment tonight, leaving Devotion in containment. I suppose to counter this, an Elim team might try to steal Devotion, but that's not guaranteed, especially if they haven't used all of their conversions yet. Even if they do manage it, we can keep watch for Devotion, as it will most likely be in Elim hands.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Still deciding on some things. A bit distracted. I'm kind of in an evacuation zone at the moment.

Off the top of my head though? Curious about Ruin.

Blowing up Braize doesn't make much sense for a villager. Sure, killing is scary, but Braize's killing power is relatively more accessible to regular villagers than anyone else.

It doesn't really seem to make sense for Hoid or Khriss, since I reckon they'd kill somebody with it.

The way I see it, the only solid reason to blow up a random planet is if the vessel fully intends to be converted by Ruin and is exercising their power in anticipation of that fact.

I understand why Ruin would do this. Heck, I'll even admit that there's a pretty storming high chance that I'd do the same thing in Ruin's place.

But I'm bringing this up because I don't think Ruin is serving the village win con.

Anyways, back in a few.

[Sart he/him]

5 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

Still deciding on some things. A bit distracted. I'm kind of in an evacuation zone at the moment.

Off the top of my head though? Curious about Ruin.

Blowing up Braize doesn't make much sense for a villager. Sure, killing is scary, but Braize's killing power is relatively more accessible to regular villagers than anyone else.

It doesn't really seem to make sense for Hoid or Khriss, since I reckon they'd kill somebody with it.

The way I see it, the only solid reason to blow up a random planet is if the vessel fully intends to be converted by Ruin and is exercising their power in anticipation of that fact.

I understand why Ruin would do this. Heck, I'll even admit that there's a pretty storming high chance that I'd do the same thing in Ruin's place.

But I'm bringing this up because I don't think Ruin is serving the village win con.

Anyways, back in a few.

If we want to track where Ruin is, it's honestly not that hard. Blowing up a planet is the only way to worldhop during the Night.  Thus, all we need to do is figure out which planet the Vessel landed on. If we got unlucky, they made it back to Silverlight, which doesn't have a doc. Otherwise, if someone new showed up on the world you are on, that means they are most likely Ruin. @Seonid can Ruin choose what planet he lands on after blowing up the planet he was on? If he can, then this line of reasoning isn't actually useful. If it's random though, that can be a very important lead.

[DeTess she/her]

18 minutes ago, Sart said:

I disagree on this point. To prevent Hoid or Khriss from getting the sudden death win condition, we should leave one Shard in containment. That way, if one team actually tries to go for it, we'll immediately have a list of suspects, since everyone would theoretically leave Silverlight after the other two Shards are released. I propose we leave Devotion in containment. I don't want lynches getting cancelled in this game, and vote manipulation is more annoying than useful at this point. Honor is good for protecting against Odium, and Endowment can bring people back from the dead, both of which can be helpful for the Village. For that reason, let's free Honor and Endowment tonight, leaving Devotion in containment. I suppose to counter this, an Elim team might try to steal Devotion, but that's not guaranteed, especially if they haven't used all of their conversions yet. Even if they do manage it, we can keep watch for Devotion, as it will most likely be in Elim hands.

The problem with this plan is that, if one elim team already has a convert, and they are all still on silverlight, they can break devotion free between them without needing any villager support. I think we just established that having devotion in the hands of the elims would be problematic, and this plan would guarantee that it would end up with one of the two elim factions as no villagers would be taking from devotion.

[Seonid he/him]

23 minutes ago, Sart said:

If we want to track where Ruin is, it's honestly not that hard. Blowing up a planet is the only way to worldhop during the Night.  Thus, all we need to do is figure out which planet the Vessel landed on. If we got unlucky, they made it back to Silverlight, which doesn't have a doc. Otherwise, if someone new showed up on the world you are on, that means they are most likely Ruin. @Seonid can Ruin choose what planet he lands on after blowing up the planet he was on? If he can, then this line of reasoning isn't actually useful. If it's random though, that can be a very important lead.

Ruin chooses.  Everyone else is random

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, Steeldancer said:

I will second Rand. Trust groups, bad. Also, why does everyone have PMs when I haven't seen a single one? Me sad 

There can only be at most 3 PMs at this point, if I'm reading the rules correctly. Hoid can have one from his starting Investiture, and the at most two people who went for Cultivation on Night 0 can have one. I haven't received any PMs either.

2 hours ago, randuir said:

There's not much to say about preservation, I think. If you do happen to turn into a mistborn you should be somewhat careful though, as your reactive kill could just as easily hit someone trying to set up a Pm as it could hit an attempted conversion.

 @Seonid, would self-targeting abilities trigger the retaliatory attack? If they do, Preservation will be an even better Shard for an elim team. Invincibility for one player at night plus the ability to attack any player who tries to roleblock scan, message, redirect, protect, attack, or self-target a specific player would be a dangerous combination.

1 hour ago, Sart said:

I disagree on this point. To prevent Hoid or Khriss from getting the sudden death win condition, we should leave one Shard in containment. 

Both Hoid's and Khriss's sudden death win conditions depend on them getting all the Shards, excluding Survival in Khriss's case. They would then have to spend ten actions fusing or investing them, unless Khriss manages to get a Fused Shard. Since Shattered Shards can neither be fused nor Invested, Vessels cannot randomly receive Shards, and Ruin can divest Shards by destroying their planet, the chances of either Hoid or Khriss achieving their sudden death win conditions is low enough that I don't think it's worthwhile to purposefully leave a Shard in containment where it can be easily taken by either elim team.

1 hour ago, Drake Marshall said:

But I'm bringing this up because I don't think Ruin is serving the village win con.

I would agree with you here. Blowing up Braize looks like an attempt for Ruin to stay alive long enough to destroy up all the planets. Since players on the same world as Ruin can't kill him at night as they get roleblocked when he blows up the planet, removing a source of kills that can target anyone makes a self-aligned Ruin much harder to stop. If Ruin destroys any more planets, especially Taldain, which allows targeting of any player, or Roshar, the only reliable source of Odium's Investiture, it would be safe to assume that Ruin is not village-aligned.

[livinglegend]

1 hour ago, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

I wasn't referring to my plans. It just seemed to me that the players as a whole had put a lot of effort into trying to plot out Shard actions and predict outcomes. I wanted to point out that it might be more complicated than previously thought. 

I haven't even gotten a PM yet, but then again, PMs are a bit more difficult to make this game.

Does this satisfy your curiosity?

I suppose that is fair enough Hemalurgic Headshot.

I agree with Drake that Ruin is most likely playing to their potential win condition as opposed to the 17th shard's.

It is interesting that Odium didn't attack anyone and if you are still attempting to work for the 17th shard, can I recommend that you pass your shard to Pyromancer and have him pass it back. This just because he can't have been converted and still can't convert to become Odium. That way you retain your win condition without losing your shard.

Or you could pass it to me that would be fine too

[Seonid he/him]

Self-targeting abilities do not trigger the Mistborn's attack.