Long Game 35: L35 Miserables

[Paranoid King]

Hi, I'm back. I'm not usually very active on Sundays...

Anyways, from what I've seen in the thread, straw is being voted on for making too many PMs. Randuir is being voted on... for some reason. And he won't be back before the end of the cycle to defend himself.

I don't think either of them are evil, though. Straw might be evil, but I get the impression that he's just making the most of his PMs while he has them. 

So... shqueeves, I guess. I'm not suspicious of him, but I feel like lynching an inactive is better than the current bandwagons.

[Amanuensis]

I was working on a response to Crimsn but then I saw PK's post and wanted to get my reaction out first.

1 minute ago, Paranoid King said:

Hi, I'm back. I'm not usually very active on Sundays...

Anyways, from what I've seen in the thread, straw is being voted on for making too many PMs. Randuir is being voted on... for some reason. And he won't be back before the end of the cycle to defend himself.

I don't think either of them are evil, though. Straw might be evil, but I get the impression that he's just making the most of his PMs while he has them. 

So... shqueeves, I guess. I'm not suspicious of him, but I feel like lynching an inactive is better than the current bandwagons.

Ew.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

@Amanuensis, isn't your defence of Randuir based solely on the fact that's you don't think he'd have risked people realising that he might be turning the neutrals against the village? Your defence essentially comes down to believing you have a perfect understanding of Randuir's propensity to take risks, and his ability to predict how others will react to his actions.

Edited June 26, 2017 by OrlokTsubodai

[Straw]

One question: is this the most active first day in the history of SE?

[Amanuensis]

4 minutes ago, Crimsn-Wolf said:

Correct. Thats why I placed a vote on him for right now, because that is the basis for my suspicion, as well as gathering information for what others have said. I havent been able to keep up with all the posts super well today, since i have been solely on my phone, lol. I will be going through everything again before the cycle ends, though, so my vote very well might change as I wrap my mind around things. 

//edit// He did remove his vote, you quoted it in one of your other posts on this page.

Okay. Since this is relevant to @BrightnessRadiant and @Yitzi2 I'll go ahead and mention them.

There's no contradiction. I understand how it looks that way, but the two are completely unrelated. Honestly the advice is pretty silly anyway since he says letting the Convict live long enough to use his one-shot protection is in the village's best interest, but that has absolutely nothing to do with him voting Joe.

It has everything to do with Joe approaching multiple people saying if they're evil let him know so he can help them out. So first of all, if Rand is an eliminator, why not try to take him up on his offer? Second of all, if Rand is an eliminator, why lynch a neutral over a villager when that has nothing to do with their win con?

If someone can answer those two questions for me in a satisfying enough manner, I might reconsider, but I'm pretty set on town!Rand from this alone.

 

[A Joe in the Bush]

Oh right, before Drake gets lambastwd for voting for me;

@Drake Marshall, thank you for voting for me as I asked you to, in order to draw out the PO officer. Unfortunately, our plan did not work, and the player I PM'd wasn't the Parole Officer.

People, don't lynch Drake please. He's nice, and can be helpful.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Second of all, if Rand is an eliminator, why lynch a neutral over a villager when that has nothing to do with their win con?

Because through orchestrating the lynch of the neutral player, whilst appearing a villager, he may swing five other neutral players towards the eliminator team, massively changing the balance of numbers in the game.

[Steeldancer]

1 minute ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

Because through orchestrating the lynch of the neutral player, whilst appearing a villager, he may swing five other neutral players towards the eliminator team, massively changing the balance of numbers in the game.

Well. That sounds scary. Randuir . And @Amanuensis I took your advice and took notes. I am going to wait to utilize them, however I did find some solid suspicions. I think. 

[Straw]

@cloudjumper I can see you lurking, care to post anything?

[cloudjumper]

2 minutes ago, Straw said:

@cloudjumper I can see you lurking, care to post anything?

Currently working on it, soon will post.

[xxGaea]

8 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

There's no contradiction. I understand how it looks that way, but the two are completely unrelated. Honestly the advice is pretty silly anyway since he says letting the Convict live long enough to use his one-shot protection is in the village's best interest, but that has absolutely nothing to do with him voting Joe.

It has everything to do with Joe approaching multiple people saying if they're evil let him know so he can help them out. So first of all, if Rand is an eliminator, why not try to take him up on his offer? Second of all, if Rand is an eliminator, why lynch a neutral over a villager when that has nothing to do with their win con?

I can see where you are coming from, but it still does seem suspicious to me. Right now, my gut-reaction is that Ranuir seems very suspicious to me, so I will probably go through with my vote on him. Something just seems off about his posts.

5 minutes ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

Because through orchestrating the lynch of the neutral player, whilst appearing a villager, he may swing five other neutral players towards the eliminator team, massively changing the balance of numbers in the game.

That is one of the things that makes me suspicious, as well, because it would be a good way to get the other neutrals to turn on the village. By making us seem to not want to work with them, neutrals would have more incentive to help the elims. But at the same time, there are more Villagers than Elims, so it could potentially be safer for them to help us? I don't know, this all seems very chaotic. Which is what Joe seems to be going for, lol.

[Amanuensis]

7 minutes ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

Because through orchestrating the lynch of the neutral player, whilst appearing a villager, he may swing five other neutral players towards the eliminator team, massively changing the balance of numbers in the game.

Extremely far-fetched, imo. Do you seriously think that is more likely than him just being a villager adverse to a neutral take the elim's side?

4 minutes ago, The Flash said:

Well. That sounds scary. Randuir . And @Amanuensis I took your advice and took notes. I am going to wait to utilize them, however I did find some solid suspicions. I think. 

Would I be correct in assuming Randuir is among those your suspicious of, or are you really buying Orlok's narrative?

[Jondesu]

I won't be awake when the cycle rolls over, so I'm going to put down a vote on Randuir. The issue has been discussed at length, but having seen Rand work in previous games, I can see him attempting to throw one neutral to the wolves in order to bring the others to the Elims side (or at least make them stay quiet on the sidelines and not announce themselves or help the village). I know it's not an exceptionally strong case against him, but it's the best I've seen, and it's pretty good for a day 1 lynch like this.

[asterion137]

 

4 minutes ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

Because through orchestrating the lynch of the neutral player, whilst appearing a villager, he may swing five other neutral players towards the eliminator team, massively changing the balance of numbers in the game.

I think that if elim!Rand actually wanted to orchestrate the lynch of a neutral, he would choose a time when he could actually be present to swing the vote toward Joe. That or one of his teammates would be helping. Besides, an elim!Rand-led bandwagon on Joe would only swing neutral opinion against the village until Rand dies and is revealed as an elim.

 

[Steeldancer]

2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Extremely far-fetched, imo. Do you seriously think that is more likely than him just being a villager adverse to a neutral take the elim's side?

Would I be correct in assuming Randuir is among those your suspicious of, or are you really buying Orlok's narrative?

You are correct, in both points. However Randuir is not the only person I am suspicious of. But for the sake of not making this day any more confusing than it already is, I will hold on my suspicions and see what happens. 

Edited June 26, 2017 by The Flash
And ninja'd

[Jondesu]

Just now, The Flash said:

You are correct, in both points. However Randuir is not the only person I am suspicious of. But for the sake of not making this day any more confusing than it already is, I will hold on my suspicions and see what happens. 

By all means, please do share. It's always best to know your suspicions even if you're not acting on them yet.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Extremely far-fetched, imo. Do you seriously think that is more likely than him just being a villager adverse to a neutral take the elim's side?

Would I be correct in assuming Randuir is among those your suspicious of, or are you really buying Orlok's narrative?

I don't see why it's in a villager's interests, Aman, to make a post applicable to every neutral player suggesting that they're likely to support the eliminators, and so that they should be lynched. He doesn't make the claim explicitly, but the logic applies to every neutral player, not just Joe:

The goal of convict!joe, as well as several other Neutrals, is to ensure that specific people survive till the end of the game. The quickest way for the game to end is if the village plays a perfect game and manages to lynch an elim (nearly) every cycle. The second quickest way for the game to end is if the village makes a lot of mistakes, doesn't get any elims, and the elims win by having a majority. For this second win-condition, every living 'survivalist' will ensure that this moment occurs sooner, as it is in their interest to end the game as soon as possible. Furthermore, the elims can guarantee immunity from the elim kills to the neutrals, while the village can't completely guarantee immunity to the lynch, unless someone can prove his neutral role(which, with the exception of the thief, is not possible this game, I believe).

So, the village would benefit from a dead Joe as it removes a potential elim vote from the end-of-game hammer if it comes down to it, thereby delaying said hammer for a cycle.

.

[Steeldancer]

Just now, Jondesu said:

By all means, please do share. It's always best to know your suspicions even if you're not acting on them yet.

The thing is, I don't really trust my suspicions. I kind of want more information before I start really pointing fingers. I promise I'll share them tomorrow. I should have time in the bus... I just, still being relatively new, am unsure of myself. After the fiasco in the first couple days of LG34, I'm going to try to be a bit more careful. 

[Amanuensis]

8 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

I won't be awake when the cycle rolls over, so I'm going to put down a vote on Randuir. The issue has been discussed at length, but having seen Rand work in previous games, I can see him attempting to throw one neutral to the wolves in order to bring the others to the Elims side (or at least make them stay quiet on the sidelines and not announce themselves or help the village). I know it's not an exceptionally strong case against him, but it's the best I've seen, and it's pretty good for a day 1 lynch like this.

Honestly I would rather people vote for me rather than bandwagon a guy who can't even be here to defend himself. I mean if Rand is an eliminator I absolutely have to be to, don't I?

2 minutes ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

I don't see why it's in a villager's interests, Aman, to make a post applicable to every neutral player suggesting that they're likely to support the eliminators, and so that they should be lynched. He doesn't make the claim explicitly, but the logic applies to every neutral player, not just Joe:

Maybe. Or he probably just hasn't played games with neutrals before and followed a hypothetical to it's logical conclusion.

I'm curious what @little wilson's opinion is.

Edited June 26, 2017 by Amanuensis

[xxGaea]

2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Honestly I would rather people vote for me rather than bandwagon a guy who can't even be here to defend himself. I mean if Rand is an eliminator I absolutely have to be to, don't I?

I mean, not necessarily. From what I've read, most of your arguments do make sense. You could easily be a villager who is trusting Randuir too much. Just because you are defending him so much, doesn't auto-confirm you as another elim. It would certainly increase suspicion on you, but still doesn't guarantee your alignment. At least, that's what I think, lol.

[Elenion]

@Amanuensis  I voted on Straw primarily because he wasn't Joe, secondarily because STINK asked me to in PM (and as somebody else said in thread a couple pages back, he has claimed neutral), and thirdly because I was about to log off but wanted to get a vote down. I haven't had much time for the thread because of LG34 still going and I'm trying to be more active in PMs than I usually am.

[cloudjumper]

Straw(4):Stink, Araris, Rae, El

Rand(6):BR, Orlok, Straw, Crimsn-Wolf, Flash, Jon

El(1):Aman

Cloud(1): Seonid

Probably missed something, but here, take this vote tally.

Okay so my disorganized and jumbled thoughts on this game so far:

Pretty sure Stink wouldn't call this much attention to himself if he was an Elim. Rand seems like village to me. He could be a parole officer or village, and his logic does seem to make sense. Never played with Rand before so might change my opinion later. Would not lynch for now. Flash seems to be unsure where to place his vote, but still wants to vote(duh). He seems to be posting less than in LG34, even though a lot of it was posting that he was going to be inactive, so perhaps he is posting elsewhere, an Elim doc perhaps? Would lynch, but only after more proof comes. Doubt Aman is an Elim if Rand is. Pushing hard for Rand's innocence if Rand is an Elim would draw attention, never good for Elims. 

Edited June 26, 2017 by cloudjumper

[Amanuensis]

Just now, Elenion said:

@Amanuensis  I voted on Straw primarily because he wasn't Joe, secondarily because STINK asked me to in PM (and as somebody else said in thread a couple pages back, he has claimed neutral), and thirdly because I was about to log off but wanted to get a vote down. I haven't had much time for the thread because of LG34 still going and I'm trying to be more active in PMs than I usually am.

Oh right. Hi Elenion. Please be more active.

3 minutes ago, Crimsn-Wolf said:

I mean, not necessarily. From what I've read, most of your arguments do make sense. You could easily be a villager who is trusting Randuir too much. Just because you are defending him so much, doesn't auto-confirm you as another elim. It would certainly increase suspicion on you, but still doesn't guarantee your alignment. At least, that's what I think, lol.

It was mostly a joke, although I'm completely serious. Not a fan of the Rand bandwagon (which in itself is more evidence of him being a villager).

[asterion137]

I'll vote on Straw because voting on someone who isn't here seems like a classic elim move to get a free village kill.

[little wilson]

My thoughts on the Rand situation? I've mostly just been skimming it. I can see both you and Orlok's take on him, though I don't think Orlok's hypothesis is as far-fetched as you say, Aman. Mostly because I remember both Sart and Rae doing exactly that to me in LG26. Rae already mentioned that, and you wrote it off as impractical, but I don't really. Do I think that's necessarily what's going on here? I don't know. To be completely honest, I don't really....care? Like, there's a reason I've been hitting so hard on the "let the neutrals do their thing" thing. You can take that as an alignment claim, by the way.