Long Game 33: Life

[Hemalurgic Headshot he/him]

Well, I've been busy today, so I haven't been able to post very much. I think I'll put in some RP soon, though.

[STINK he/him]

6 minutes ago, Straw said:

Wow, this thread is quiet.

I'm still grieving about the loss of my elevation.

[Straw he/him]

I got no elevations before I got expelled!

[Hemalurgic Headshot he/him]

It was quieter. Noremac couldn't quite place it, but there was a looming presence over the University. It was like it was holding its breath, waiting. Or maybe grieving. Whatever it was, the mood matched the weather. Dull stratus blocked out the sky, a blank gray sheet that spanned horizon to horizon. The humidity was high, and he felt a storm was coming. A flat breeze rolled over the green.

The rumor was that three students had been expelled yesterday. Three! What's more, a student had been found dead in his room, his corpse oddly construed on the floor. Noremac had inquired further, but he could not get a name. However, he no longer saw Telar around in the library anymore. 

Noremac walked briskly to his next class, which happened to be Physicks. He glanced up at the sky. The clouds had seemingly grown darker. The wind picked up, scattering leaves across the ground. Suddenly, he spun around. Were those footsteps? His eyes jumped back and forth, but he saw no one. He sighed, nervously relieved. It must be the weather getting to him. He continued on his way, stepping lightly now. His eyes flicked back and forth at every noise. When he got to the building entrance, he quickly opened it, slipped inside, and slammed the door behind him, gasping. The door echoed down the hall. Nervously, he glanced out the window. No one, just the leaves on the wind.

He chuckled, but it sounded more like a whimper. He shouldn't be listening of all this talk of death and skindancers. He shuddered. Nope, it is nothing. Nothing at all. Just go to class. He gulped, gave himself a shake, and walked to Physicks.

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

I've been busy with church today and then I took a nap and now back to church soon for the night service...I will be on later this evening though

Yeah I was surprised too at how empty this thread has been...I guess with no randuir to guide us we are gonna have to step up our games.

I feel kinda lost on how to proceed in this game...

@Hemalurgic_Headshot your RP is very fitting for this turn

 

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Right. Apologies, all, for the lack of posts. Doing the analysis this game takes a lot of time, and I needed a day off before I go back to work tomorrow.

There are two plausible reasonable for the lack of a sabotage this cycle. The first is a double-tap, and is fairly obvious. Randuir had been posting a lot, and I had hoped he'd bought himself a bodyguard.

The second reason is that the sabotage was submitted by a player staying in Anker's, who failed their action last cycle.

Of more interest, I think, is the information we gained last cycle. I don't have time to write out my thoughts on each player, and indeed have not analysed the last cycle fully. I may not do so, depending on the length of this cycle. I'm struggling to balance this, my job, and free time, and am trying not to endanger my health.

 

I do, though, want to have a look at Sart. Prior to last cycle, his activity has been very limited. He made four posts in T1M1, and only RP in T2M1. 

Last cycle, however, his activity seemed very suspicious to me. Sart looked at elevations, and then voted on me, demanding to know the field I was elevated in. I'd like to know why you thought asking me was a good idea, and how it benefits the village?

It was 1:15am when I answered, and I almost certainly should not have, but your question both narrowed down who people elevated in dangerous fields are, and gave me a choice between risking expulsion, or being targeted myself, for fear that my field was dangerous. Indeed, I am fortunate to have received Malfeasance, which adds some degree of risk to targeting me. What were you trying to gain from asking about this, other than making it seem like you were engaging in the discussion?

Your only prior post of note was in T1M1. You seemed far too eager to vote on Queensteph for calling Haelbarde Hael, which read to me as lack of care as to the results of your actions.

Sart, Sart. I'd like to hear your explanation for this, and think it worth putting pressure on you to generate discussion.

I would add to everyone that Randuir's absence doesn't mean we should stop talking. Yes, he made 51 of the 364 posts made by the end of T2M1, and certainly generated yet more discussion, but the rest of us are capable of analysis, and do very much need to generate information.

@Drake Marshall, @Straw, @Arinian, you are all still capable of adding opinions to this thread.

@Straw, would you care to provide opinions on all players you didn't analyse last cycle?

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

I know I am capable of adding opinions in thread...

Speaking of which... Another possible explanation for why there was no sabotage has occurred to me.

It is, I think, somewhat ironic that I am the one to bring this possibility up... But what if a sabotage failed because the saboteur got expelled this cycle, and targeted someone who isn't at Imre?

[Hemalurgic Headshot he/him]

34 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

I know I am capable of adding opinions in thread...

Speaking of which... Another possible explanation for why there was no sabotage has occurred to me.

It is, I think, somewhat ironic that I am the one to bring this possibility up... But what if a sabotage failed because the saboteur got expelled this cycle, and targeted someone who isn't at Imre?

By this logic, it could be yourself, Arinian, or Straw. Given the interesting events last cycle concerning Arinian, if your hunch is correct, I would think it most likely that Arinian is a skindancer.

But let's see what @Arinian thinks.

[Arinian]

44 minutes ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

 

@Drake Marshall, @Straw, @Arinian, you are all still capable of adding opinions to this thread.

 

 

3 minutes ago, Hemalurgic_Headshot said:

By this logic, it could be yourself, Arinian, or Straw. Given the interesting events last cycle concerning Arinian, if your hunch is correct, I would think it most likely that Arinian is a skindancer.

But let's see what @Arinian thinks.

I'm dead. Dead people don't talk.(maybe later I will say something. But right now I need to calm down)

[Alvron]

1 hour ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

Right. Apologies, all, for the lack of posts. Doing the analysis this game takes a lot of time, and I needed a day off before I go back to work tomorrow.

There are two plausible reasonable for the lack of a sabotage this cycle. The first is a double-tap, and is fairly obvious. Randuir had been posting a lot, and I had hoped he'd bought himself a bodyguard.

The second reason is that the sabotage was submitted by a player staying in Anker's, who failed their action last cycle.

Or it hit someone with a bodyguard/gram/bloodless.
Or it was someone on the streets who placed the order and were cancelled.
Or they targeted someone staying at the Horse and Four and were unlucky.
Or they were role blocked by a Mommet, Fae Lore, Medica Detainment or Nahlrout.
Or maybe they just didn't submit orders due to the new rollover time.
Or it could be any combination of the aboves.

At least that's all the ways I can think of.

Edited May 8, 2017 by Alvron

[little wilson she/her]

47 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

It is, I think, somewhat ironic that I am the one to bring this possibility up... But what if a sabotage failed because the saboteur got expelled this cycle, and targeted someone who isn't at Imre?

Offensive actions happen before expulsion in the order of actions.

It's also possible that someone who's been elevated in Archives got Fae Lore and targeted the Skindancers making the kill, blocking them. Or, if someone studied Physicking and used Medica Detainment, that would do it too. Or, as Orlok suggested, it was an Anker's cancellation. Damnation, Alv, you had to ninja me, didn't you? Though your suggestions are far more complete. 

Anyway. As for what I can add. Rand was certainly killed by an assassin. I'm in Imre again, and the last time I was here, assassins were 9 talents. They are now 18.5. Because of Rand's death, I asked the GMs how assassins are operating in this game. In LG18, they were on a turn (or was it cycle?) delay. This game, they are immediate (well, not immediate, but end of that turn immediate, like all other actions). So, someone purchased an assassin in Imre last turn and sent them after Rand. Likely a Skindancer, though the suspect pool of who isn't terribly narrow, since I think most players who are Yllish Commoners and above (and even some Cealdish) could've had 9 talents to spare.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

If the sabotage was a result of roleblock, I get the feeling that the roleblocker would have spoken up by now (or maybe they aren't online yet). We'll j have to wait and see if anyone comes forward, but I don't think it was a roleblock, seeing as nobody has said they roleblocked anyone else yet.

So I'd guess that if expulsion isn't a likely cause, probably the target the elims hit was protected, in one of the ways Alv/Wilson listed.

EDIT: Or the attacker could have been roleblocked independent from another player, if they stayed at ankers.

Edited May 8, 2017 by Drake Marshall

[Alvron]

4 minutes ago, little wilson said:

It's also possible that someone who's been elevated in Archives got Fae Lore and targeted the Skindancers making the kill, blocking them. Or, if someone studied Physicking and used Medica Detainment, that would do it too. Or, as Orlok suggested, it was an Anker's cancellation. Damnation, Alv, you had to ninja me, didn't you? Though your suggestions are far more complete. 

Not as complete as I thought.   Turns out Wind is a role block possibility as well.  There are way too many ways to role block in this game.  

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

Dele was very pleased with herself. For the first time since attending this university, she'd gone a month with no complaints! She was quite relieved to not have to be chastised by chancellor Varda again. She had a feeling that she would have been even more disapproving if Dele had taken another visit to the horns. But, her good behaviour wasn't helping her get elevated like she really wanted. It had been two months since she gained a rank… she was determined to succeed soon however. So she took a seat, opened a notebook, and  began to write. Observations, examples, even began working on a new experiment. This one was at least more safe than the previous. Mildly. No fire at least. Maybe some shrapnel though. Hm. Shed need to fix up a rig to contain that. Unless she made it all out of plushies. Then nothing harmful would fly around right? Hm… plushies… she suddenly had a great idea and began to scribble down potential uses for plushies in exciting experiments. Not every possibility ended with the plushies demise. But a fair few. She really wanted to make plushie fireworks for example. Of course, the best ones would be saved for living in her room to keep her company when she studied. Dele paused her scribblings to look across her room at the large plushie in the darker corner of her room and smiled at it. She'd named that one Niur.  It had been with her for a long time and it was her favorite by far.

[little wilson she/her]

54 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

If the sabotage was a result of roleblock, I get the feeling that the roleblocker would have spoken up by now (or maybe they aren't online yet). We'll j have to wait and see if anyone comes forward, but I don't think it was a roleblock, seeing as nobody has said they roleblocked anyone else yet.

I'm not sure we can assume that someone would've come forward, in the thread, to declare that they were studying in Naming, Physicking, Archives or much else that could block a Skindancer's actions. I can see the Skindancers wanting to get rid of any of those players. If someone did roleblock a Skindancer, I would suggest they tell a PM contact they trust because telling the thread would result in them being sabotaged soon. If they have enough money, go to Imre and get a Bloodless (they're cheaper than Bodyguards right now, which are 12 talents and won't go down unless a currently purchased Bodyguard is used up. If they don't....yeah. There aren't many abilities that can guarantee protection of other people, particularly since no one is a Master and won't be for at least a few more turns.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

4 minutes ago, little wilson said:

I'm not sure we can assume that someone would've come forward, in the thread, to declare that they were studying in Naming, Physicking, Archives or much else that could block a Skindancer's actions. I can see the Skindancers wanting to get rid of any of those players. If someone did roleblock a Skindancer, I would suggest they tell a PM contact they trust because telling the thread would result in them being sabotaged soon. If they have enough money, go to Imre and get a Bloodless (they're cheaper than Bodyguards right now, which are 12 talents and won't go down unless a currently purchased Bodyguard is used up. If they don't....yeah. There aren't many abilities that can guarantee protection of other people, particularly since no one is a Master and won't be for at least a few more turns.

Or I suppose they might just quietly arrange for the skindancer's assassination.

But in terms of not wanting to reveal one's role... If one used physicking to roleblock a skindancer, but didn't want to reveal that they were a physicker, couldn't they just come forward but lie and say they used nahlrout?

I agree that someone may have reasons to keep it a secret, but I would still guess that a roleblocker would most like come forward, unless they are rich enough to afford an assassin or they have a killing power like naming.

Also, if someone did roleblock using naming, wouldn't it say a name was used in the writeup?

[little wilson she/her]

2 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

Also, if someone did roleblock using naming, wouldn't it say a name was used in the writeup?

 

20 hours ago, Elbereth said:

A name was used.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Lol why do I keep missing that?

So that could have roleblocked someone, yes. And if naming is indeed responsible for the roleblock, it makes perfect sense that the namer hasn't come forward, since they can already unilaterally kill the skindancer using the name of the wind.

[Sart he/him]

Titud strode up to Locke, scowling. "How dare you vote for me behind my back? The least you could have done is notify me!" (Seriously, at people that you're voting against)

"I voted on you because I thought you were jumping between disciplines. It's in our best interests to stick to one field, in order to quickly attaining mastery status, while not clogging up other fields with points scattered everywhere."

"However, you revealed yourself as a master of sympathy. That was my true motive. I wanted a trust group to form around you, so that you could deflect a kill. I knew you were powerful, so I merely directed the Skindancer's gaze at you, in the hopes that you would be protected. Considering the lack of sabotage, I believe I have succeeded"

He stopped to collect his thoughts.

"In addition, you are studying Sympathy. I do not believe that a Skin-dancer would do such a thing. Malfeasance is only good once it's upgraded, Malignant Sympathy Protection is situational, and Mommet-Making only helps the village. Therefore, I have every reason to suspect that you are a villager, and a powerful one at that." He noted that Locke was now an El'the.

"Although I cannot with certainty say you are not a Skindancer, I suspect you are not. Thus, I have created a cop for the village to rely on. Why would a Skindancer do something like that? It makes no sense for them to pull a gambit like that. In addition, I have not tried to worm my way into your trust. Wouldn't a Skindancer, after revealing such a powerful threat, try to ally themselves with you, in order to cloud your judgement? I have done no such thing." 

Titud privately added that he had just voted for Locke. There wasn't much chance of joining the trust circle after doing that.

"Therefore, I strongly advise you to take your vote off of me. I am only an Edema Ruh. I have been elevated once, and I have only 4 points invested in my chosen field. I am not a threat. I am skipping the university this cycle because I do not have enough money to afford it. Being put on the horns would ruin me, and make me practically useless for this game. I already have a 10% (Not 20, darn it math) chance of going insane due to my lodgings, so I strongly ask that you retract your votes."

With that, Titud turned around, and stalked off. He was done talking to Locke. He needed to find the Skindancers, not worry all day about staying off the Horns.

Edited May 8, 2017 by Sart
Math is hard

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

39 minutes ago, Sart said:

I already have a 20% chance of going insane due to my lodgings

Interesting, so you just admitted to being involved in an arcane field, correct?

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

38 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

Interesting, so you just admitted to being involved in an arcane field, correct?

No, lodging in the Mews grants +2 to insanity. that is what he admitted.

Edited May 8, 2017 by A Joe in the Bush

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

3 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

No, lodging in the Mews grants +2 to insanity. that is what he admitted.

And you go insane if you roll a 12, and the base roll is only 10. So you only get 10% from staying in the mews.

It is possible Sart was mistaken about his numbers (or that I am mistaken about them but I obviously do not believe that I am ), which is why I asked for clarification from Sart.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

2 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

And you go insane if you roll a 12, and the base roll is only 10. So you only get 10% from staying in the mews.

It is possible Sart was mistaken about his numbers (or that I am mistaken about them but I obviously do not believe that I am ), which is why I asked for clarification from Sart.

Well, you are mistaken about your numbers, but sart may also be. staying in the mews is 16%, not 10%, and not 20%. either way though, do we really want people revealing even hints about EP in thread?

[little wilson she/her]

How is it 16%? You'd only go insane if you rolled a 10. On a d10 dice, that's a 10% chance. So a 10% chance to go insane while staying in the mews, if you haven't studied in the arcane arts.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

3 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Well, you are mistaken about your numbers, but sart may also be. staying in the mews is 16%, not 10%, and not 20%. either way though, do we really want people revealing even hints about EP in thread?

Not really, but if it looks like someone might be, best to be sure whether they are or aren't.

And where are you getting 16%? It looks to me like the insanity roll on someone staying at the mews but with no additional modifiers is 1d10 + 2.

You go insane if that roll is >= 12. That only happens at 10+2 which is a 10% probability of occurring.

EDIT: Ninja'd by Wilson

Edited May 8, 2017 by Drake Marshall