Jo and the Bush all/any Posted May 8, 2017 Posted May 8, 2017 Well, you have to get to 12 to go insane, and staying in the mews provides 2 of that 12. 2/12 = 16 and some repeating 6's, so, 16%.
little wilson she/her Posted May 8, 2017 Posted May 8, 2017 I'm pretty sure that's not the way it works, Joe....
Jo and the Bush all/any Posted May 8, 2017 Posted May 8, 2017 we're just looking at it differently i think. And I think you're way is closer to what Sart originally meant. I'm looking at it as being the Mews providing 2 points, or 16% of the necessary total, where as you're looking at it as just being the chance per round(?)
Sart he/him Posted May 8, 2017 Posted May 8, 2017 Whoops. I got the math wrong. I am staying at the Mews so I have a 10% chance of going insane. I'm not studying the arcane fields. I suppose I could have studied Sympathy, but Orlok dedicated himself to that, and I hadn't thought about it. Alchemy and Artificery require you to continuously stay at the university, which I couldn't afford since I'm Edema Ruh. Naming was undoubtedly going to be popular, and I didn't trust my luck enough to go into it. My points would quickly be outclassed, and even if I did get in, the danger to my sanity was too great. Thus, I am not in an Arcane field. 1
little wilson she/her Posted May 8, 2017 Posted May 8, 2017 Okay, Joe. I can see that. Doesn't make sense to me, because if you're not in the mews, you have a 0% chance of going insane. Even if you're an E'lir in an arcane field. Even if you're a Namer and you know 2 names. The mews points put you in the realm of insanity being a possibility, but you chose to be there, so it's not part of the the probability. The probability comes from the dice roll.
Alvron Posted May 8, 2017 Posted May 8, 2017 Queensteph, what are your thoughts on the lack of a sabotage? You too Cluny. Both of you are rich enough to buy some protection. Don't suppose either of you were attacked?
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted May 8, 2017 Posted May 8, 2017 Seeing as those votes appear to be primarily meant to elicit a response from the ones voted on, we should probably tag them. @queensteph @Cluny the Scourge
Alvron Posted May 8, 2017 Posted May 8, 2017 I'm not really a fan of tags. If they aren't paying attention to the game, they deserve to be lynched. 1
BrightnessRadiant she/her Posted May 8, 2017 Posted May 8, 2017 aaaaaand I'm back...as I promised I'm glad that since I left there are a lot more posts! Yay! @Elbereth If you pay for an assassin do you have to use it on the turn you pay for it? do you put in the order and then it makes the kill the next turn? Or is it affective on that turn? Here's a list of everyone who has stated or hinted in the thread when they have been/might be going to Imre in case it helps narrow down who might have payed for an assassin: 1. Mystery person(Wilson stated on Term 2 Turn 1 that she had it on "very good authority" that there had been a gram still left in the apothecary on Term 1 Turn 1 so someone must have gone then and told her) 2. Steph (asks on Term 1 month 2 if a person who's actions are on hold can still go to Imre...on Term 2 Month 1 she says she didn't know the grams were sold out...so she may have gone to Imre Term 2 month 2 3. Burnt (says on Term 2 Turn 1 that she was the one who purchased a gram so she must have been there the turn before or at the very beginning of Term 2) 4. Wilson (stated in thread that she was there on Term 2 Turn 1) 5. Brightness Radiant (yes I went that same cycle and also saw that the gram was gone) 6. Aonar (says on Term 2 Turn 1 that he didn't get elevated and so he's going to hang out in Imre and do nothing for two turns...so he was either there on that turn or the next probably) 7. Sart (states in thread that he's in Imre on Term 2 Turn 2) 8. Wilson (says that she saw that the assassin price was raised this turn) I know someone else could have gone too and not have posted about it but I thought it might help to look at all the info we have in the thread...if anything it could tell us who was open about going to Imre. And you can't stay in Imre for two turns in a row unless you aren't a student right? So that would help us mark off whoever went to Imre on the turn before Randuir was killed if the assassin is affective immediately..or if you have to put in the order on the turn before the kill will take affect I hope this all makes sense I feel like I'm rambling
Paranoid King he/him Posted May 8, 2017 Posted May 8, 2017 Wait, WHAT? I broke out of the crockery in my first turn? I had, like, 5 terms worth of RP lined up for when I couldn't escape! Anyways, it's late tonight and I don't have access to my notes, but I'm placing 2 votes on Joe. Joe. As I recall, an elevation tally created by Straw was inaccurate in that it excluded Joe. Joe also said that the field nobody had been elevated in was not such-and-such because he had placed EP in those fields just in case nobody else had. Since he was elevated, he couldn't have gone up in those fields, so his claim was invalid. This points to straw and Joe working together to draw attention away from each other. I'm voting on Joe, not Straw, because I don't think anyone's drawn attention to him yet. (As of last cycle. I haven't read this cycle yet) I have other notes, but as I said, I'm tired. I'll get back to you in 8 hours or so. 2
TheMightyLopen he/him Posted May 8, 2017 Posted May 8, 2017 1 minute ago, BrightnessRadiant said: @Elbereth If you pay for an assassin do you have to use it on the turn you pay for it? do you put in the order and then it makes the kill the next turn? Or is it affective on that turn? Well, I'm not Elbereth , but I can answer that. You do have to use the Assassin the Turn you paid for it, and it's effective the same Turn you paid. 1
BrightnessRadiant she/her Posted May 8, 2017 Posted May 8, 2017 (edited) 8 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said: Well, I'm not Elbereth , but I can answer that. You do have to use the Assassin the Turn you paid for it, and it's effective the same Turn you paid. Thanks GM Lopen! Okay so that means the people from my list who could have been there are Steph, Aonar, and Sart...but I dunno if they would have mentioned going to Imre in the thread if they were gonna buy an assassin...plus aonar and sart are probably too poor to afford one since they're both Edema Ruh This also rules out the people who were in Imre on Term 2 Turn 1 cuz they couldn't have been there two turns in a row, right? Edited May 8, 2017 by BrightnessRadiant
queensteph she/her Posted May 8, 2017 Posted May 8, 2017 @Alvron hey I thought we were becoming friends sorry for not being active today guys, I was busy and also exhausted. anyways i need to sleep but i scanned over all the posts and i DO have something to add. I'm pretty sure Arinian is a skindancer if my theory is correct. Last turn I put in a request to research (gasp, FIELD REVEAL IN THREAD?!?) Arinian, but then it ended up making me research Randuir. So my theory is that Arinian is studying Rhetoric and Logic and a Elim buddy bought the Assassin and used it on Arinian Because if Arinian has Law of Contraposition: Redirect a targeted action of another player to another player of your choice. Then he could just redirect it onto Randuir and they'd still get a kill without it being a sabatoge and being able to be traced back to them. (I'm like asleep rn I hope this makes sense.) But idk I don't think that makes sense as to why my action was switched. Ok but maybe actually he actually studied Sympathy??? and used Malfeasance: Create a binding between you and another student. All actions that happen to you also affect the person you’re bound to. Upgrade: Your bind can affect two other students. Because if he binded with Randuir and then they used the Assassin on him, but he was prepared and protected by someone(?) but Rand wasn't protected so it succeeded in killing him. Idk I'm just trying to think of why my research on Arinian ended up researching Randuir (which I then didn't get any info on Randuir's field bc he died RIP friend). Either this or he is studying Naming possibly ? (idk what all the naming things do off the top of my head so if someone wants to add to that theory then please do) Honestly I'm so tired this might not make actually make any sense. But hopefully it's useful. Okay sleep for me finally.
Orlok Tsubodai Posted May 8, 2017 Posted May 8, 2017 @queensteph, I've been elevated three times now in Sympathy. There's no way Arinian could have used Malfeasance and been protected. I'm not quite sure where the advantage in that would lie, anyway - the eliminators would have to use an assassin either way, and would sacrifice a bodyguard needlessly in so doing. I suspect the law of contraposition is more likely. Given Randuir was, a time least to me, very obviously a villager, I'm not sure why Arinian would seek to redirect actions to Randuir. @Arinian, did you redirect actions targeting you to Randuir, and if so, why? What made you believe Randuir to be suspicious?
Arinian Posted May 8, 2017 Posted May 8, 2017 (edited) 36 minutes ago, OrlokTsubodai said: @queensteph, I've been elevated three times now in Sympathy. There's no way Arinian could have used Malfeasance and been protected. I'm not quite sure where the advantage in that would lie, anyway - the eliminators would have to use an assassin either way, and would sacrifice a bodyguard needlessly in so doing. I suspect the law of contraposition is more likely. Given Randuir was, a time least to me, very obviously a villager, I'm not sure why Arinian would seek to redirect actions to Randuir. @Arinian, did you redirect actions targeting you to Randuir, and if so, why? What made you believe Randuir to be suspicious? I have 2 abilities and now both of them is useless. And I even can't remember which field provides with ability to redirect kills. Edited May 8, 2017 by Arinian
Jondesu he/him Posted May 8, 2017 Posted May 8, 2017 @queensteph, that's compelling information and I'm inclined to believe you, though it could easily be a Skindancer ploy. For now, since I don't have any better info to act on, Arinian, Arinian.
Eolhondras he/him Posted May 8, 2017 Posted May 8, 2017 I got my brain rearranged playing rugby over the weekend and have had to take a couple away from technology. But will catch up on the last cycle and get up to date asap.
Orlok Tsubodai Posted May 8, 2017 Posted May 8, 2017 @Jondesu, I believe that Arinian was expelled last cycle, so voting on him will be somewhat ineffective. @Sart, I'm leaving my votes on you, pending thinking through your explanation properly this evening.
Arinian Posted May 8, 2017 Posted May 8, 2017 50 minutes ago, Jondesu said: @queensteph, that's compelling information and I'm inclined to believe you, though it could easily be a Skindancer ploy. For now, since I don't have any better info to act on, Arinian, Arinian. Really ineffective. Be more careful with your votes next time.
little wilson she/her Posted May 8, 2017 Posted May 8, 2017 Additionally, the Law of Contraposition only redirects a single targeted action. And I'm pretty sure that the way it works is that you say "I want to redirect Steph to Rand" rather than "I want to redirect an action targeting Ari to Rand." So all we can gather from this is that Steph was targeted by Law of Contraposition. Paranoid theory: Steph is a Skindancer who purchased an assassin last turn to go after Ari, but was targeted by Law of Contraposition and hit Rand instead. To cover her butt so the person who used LoC on her won't figure out that she purchased the assassin, she's claiming to have used another action instead. As I said, paranoid. But not impossible. I personally find it more likely that the Skindancers would go after Rand over Ari, though, so I'm not going to give this too much merit, but I figured I'd toss out the idea anyway. I'm going to withhold voting right now, but I'm eyeing Jon and/or Joe currently. Though Cluny is also an option, since he was super active and now he's gone mysteriously silent ever since he attracted a lot of attention and suspicion.
Jondesu he/him Posted May 8, 2017 Posted May 8, 2017 Ouch, I noticed the expulsion at the time and forgot. I was in the airport in Atlanta at the time, so I plead distraction. Arinian, Arinian
Guest Posted May 8, 2017 Posted May 8, 2017 HI. I'm back! I was inactive because I was at a scout meeting.(no internet)
Guest Posted May 8, 2017 Posted May 8, 2017 My brain is fighting my gut, so Orlok Is now somewhere in between Not Suspicious and Suspicious.
Jo and the Bush all/any Posted May 8, 2017 Posted May 8, 2017 (edited) 17 hours ago, Paranoid King said: Wait WHAT? I broke out of the crockery in my first turn? I had, like, 5 terms worth o f RP lined up for when I couldn't escape! Anyways, it's late tonight and I don't have access to my notes, but I'm placing 2 votes on Joe. Joe. As I recall, an elevation tally created by Straw was inaccurate in that it excluded Joe. Joe also said that the field nobody had been elevated in was not such-and-such because he had placed EP in those fields just in case nobody else had. Since he was elevated, he couldn't have gone up in those fields, so his claim was invalid. This points to straw and Joe working together to draw attention away from each other. I'm voting on Joe, not Straw, because I don't think anyone's drawn attention to him yet. (As of last cycle. I haven't read this cycle yet) I have other notes, but as I said, I'm tired. I'll get back to you in 8 hours or so. Hmm, that is correct i suppose. I had not realized my elevation prevented me from being elevated in the other fields, possibly because i just didn't think about it. But the reast is wrong. I did not realize i was excluded from Straw's graph, and i have been trying to draw attention to him because i'm suspicious of him. Edited May 8, 2017 by A Joe in the Bush Typo's
queensteph she/her Posted May 8, 2017 Posted May 8, 2017 Randuir is the only one who knew of my ability so it's possible that they spied on his PMs with me and therefore targeted me? I told him my ability because I trusted him more than the others and I knew what PK was studying. Since he was in the Crockery already I didn't feel bad for revealing his field. But now that he's escaped I'm sorry PK because now if the Skindancers did read my PM (also, assuming you are not a skindancer) then they know your field. I thought it's be best to warn you. Okay nevermind it probably doesn't matter. I just looked at the rules again and it says it takes away a random power from you though, and you've only been elevated once so I guess you don't have a power anymore. I still don't like revealing peoples field tho so my apology stands. I don't really know what a students motives would be for roleblocking me because so far no one has really stated being very suspicious of me, which is why I'm inclined to believe it was a skindancer.
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