Long Game 29: A Mote in Adonalsium's Eye

[A Joe in the Bush]

So, Conquestor was Preservation? That's not a terrible shard to be shattered. I would like for it to be unshattered, but it's not that great of a loss. Does anyone want to come forward and claim to hold preservation?

@Assassin in Burgundy Jond was saying people shouldn't vote d1 long before i had my two votes. And I'm still planning to kill myself at the end of Night 3. (Speaking of, anyone have any suggestions for how i kill myself? Who I should protect and so on?)

[Alvron he/him]

59 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

So, Conquestor was Preservation? That's not a terrible shard to be shattered. I would like for it to be unshattered, but it's not that great of a loss. Does anyone want to come forward and claim to hold preservation?

I must've been staring at this for about 6-7 mins trying to work out how you knew the Con was Preservation before seeing that it says so in the write up.

[Dalinar Kholin]

2 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

So, Conquestor was Preservation? That's not a terrible shard to be shattered. I would like for it to be unshattered, but it's not that great of a loss. Does anyone want to come forward and claim to hold preservation?

@Assassin in Burgundy Jond was saying people shouldn't vote d1 long before i had my two votes. And I'm still planning to kill myself at the end of Night 3. (Speaking of, anyone have any suggestions for how i kill myself? Who I should protect and so on?)

Why kill yourself? Do we really have enough information for the sacrifice to be worth it? 

[A Joe in the Bush]

I have to kill myself, because I promised I would. I promised to kill myself to prevent Hoid, odium and Autonomy from converting me, because i'm the closest thing we have to a confirmed villager.

I won't kill myself only if I get converted and ordered not to, or if half of the village wants me to stay alive.

so while we really don't have enough information, it needs to happen anyway.

[Stick. she/her]

So wait, Harambe,   you aren't Ruin? What? I didn't quite get your plan...can you explain what you were trying to do?

Oh, Odium should keep doing this tho

11 hours ago, Elbereth said:

3. Jondesu - Quintus17th Shard

[Kasimir he/him]

It's interesting that Ruin didn't kill harambe for fake-claiming Ruin. (Hells, he claimed so many things I'm not even bothering to keep track of his role-claims.) Either Ruin wasn't active, or Ruin simply thought that he was better off not night-killing harambe - possibly because he thought harambe had a Shard or something. (Or maybe he thought harambe was Team Shard.)

I'm still persistently puzzled by Odium's kills. It looks like it's possible Odium has just decided to keep killing randomly (?) in the hopes of hitting on Shards, since their only win condition is to shatter all the things, so they don't really need to care about who's left. Except that intuitively, I don't think Odium is killing randomly - they're just following a different set of rules. Devotion, you've probably been busy opening PMs and stuff. If conquestor and Jondesu have been saying stuff in your opened PMs to other people, you should probably start looking for who might be Odium - just in case. No need to bring that to the thread just yet though (?) It's interesting Odium decided not to kill harambe, but I suspect that just means Odium could smell a set-up, or that conquestor said more revealing things in a PM. Whoever was in his world PMs, might be nice if you said more.

With regard to Jondesu, I can back up Assassin's claims since we were in the same world PMs. I'll give a slightly more detailed report though:

First of the Sun World PM - Cycle 1:
1. Jondesu says hi.
2. Magestar says hi and adds that he thinks it rude to just go and share who is on FotS with the thread like that. Questions Alv's doing so.
3. Jondesu agrees with Mage about the world-sharing. Says he needs to re-read the rules for strategies but asks everyone what they think the world PMs are for.
4. Magestar figures it's just for communication since there are no other PMs except for Devotion's.
5. Jondesu realises he's forgotten there are no other PMs this game. Thinks it makes things easier since there's no need to think about who to PM.
6. Kas cracks a joke about being on the World of Death. (Seriously, guys, Bear Grylls versus First of the Sun?)
7. Mage responds and says it's why he's thinking of moving to Scadrial and wasn't thrilled at the idea of blowing it up. Notes Scadrial seems to be really active.
8. Kas makes another joke about how he's sure it's not because Endowment could bestow awesome Mistborn powers.
9. Mage jokingly responds that was totally not a motivation for moving to Scadrial - or why he wanted Scadrial kept un-Ruined.
10. Kas cracks yet another joke, but then sobers up to say that it makes Joe's suggestion to blow up Scadrial look strange - either Joe slipped up there, or...
11. Mage says Joe's response seems odd: he seems to have forgotten but also seems to be emphasising that he had forgotten it a bit too much. Almost as if Joe was covering up. Ultimately, he is conflicted as his gut thinks Joe is Team Shard.
12. Kas jokes that he would trust Mage's gut given QF20, but he doesn't know if he can trust Mage.
13. Mage agrees that he can't trust Kas either, since he doesn't know Kas's faction. Adds that he's hoping to get a Shard soon, but that he's not confident people with Shards will pass them, ergo the people who suggest passing Shards are unlikely to be Shards. Balances that out with the wry observation that having a Shard is like asking for the Odium Überkill to come after you.
14. Kas agrees to stick to mutual distrust. Adds that the worry is really that being a Shard makes you an juicy target for Team Hoid, and that not-having a Shard makes the Odium Überkill even scarier since you're just roadkill/collateral damage.
15. Mage says it's not scary - just rage-inducing. Asks if Hoid can convert Shardholders.
16. Jondesu responds - the rules seem to suggest say, barring exceptions like Odium and their Champion.
17. Mage then reads the rules and says it's right there so he won't quote it.
18. Kas agrees that he reads the rules that way as well. Jokes it would suck to be Hoid and have Odium smash all the Shards in your collection. (Hey it was funnier originally but I have to paraphrase...)
19. Mage says Team Hoid still wins even with Shattered Shards, and there are many possibilities for cooperation between factions, but he doesn't want to talk about them since he doesn't want to go for 'forced' wins since that's boring.
20. Adds that he didn't think LG26 was 'forced' per se but it was boring because of the team-ups.
21. Kas agrees Team Hoid can still win, notes he was just joking it would annoy Hoid. Says he doesn't care about forced wins but that talking too much about the interactions between factions could alienate factions he doesn't want to alienate at this point.
22. Mage agrees and says he thinks Odium can win with Team Shard. Changes topic to asks if anyone has any suspicions.
23. Kas agrees Odium can win with Team Shard - he just thinks it would require so much micromanagement it'd be difficult, but agrees to close the topic. Offers to trade suspicions for Mage's.
24. Mage claims his gut thinks Lopen and Kas are Team Village, and that Alv and Joe are neutral but potentially bad. Jondesu/Bard and Sheep are neutral, but that's Day 1 for you.
25. Kas replies: he begins a game distrusting everyone by default, because paranoia. He's not considering anyone good yet - undecided on Sheep because of the Shard discussion. Adds that some of Sheep's evidence does not support his claims so that leaped out at him. Claims biggest suspicion would be Joe because of the previously-mentioned weird points, but eh, it's Day 1.
26. Assassin says we shouldn't lynch because we have a 90% chance of lynching a villager, due to poor evidence.
27. Jondesu agrees, at least for this game.
28. Mage counters by noting gut reads are sometimes right. Adds that the point of Day One lynches are really to get some sort of base impression of players, and information. Still, he usually doesn't vote because he has poor information, but generally, he thinks Day One lynches do more good than harm.
29. Seonid closes the PM.

Make of it what you will.

Edit: Whoops, sorry Alv - to your second question, he didn't worldhop on Cycle 2. It was just me, Assassin, and Jondesu, and a glorious total of 1 message in the world PM, from me on reading the write-up, saying I didn't expect us to literally be the World of Death (i.e. where Jondesu died.)

Edit 2: Also, isn't Kynedath supposed to be playing this game?

Edited December 28, 2016 by Kasimir

[manukos he/him]

Btw i got frozen 

preservation you kinda wasted your shardic ability this turn. even I voted for myself 

 

Edited December 28, 2016 by harambe

[Elenion he/him]

Either:

1. Harambe is village, 17th, or Auto, and Odium left him alive knowing that we'd do their hard work for them.

Or

2.  Harambe is working with Odium and so escaped Shattering that way.

 

 I'm inclined to believe the former, but I'm not involved enough in this game to suggest a good lynch alternative. I'll be home in about 3 hours and will figure things out then.

[Magestar he/him]

Yeah, I'm not sure what to think about Harambe.  I think that, in the very least, his lynch will give us some good information.  So I'm going to put my vote on him for now, seeing as I can't really see a good reason not to.  Harambe, if you do have a Shard, pass it to someone you trust.  I'm pretty sure Shard passing happens before the lynch.

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

First of the Sun World PM - Cycle 1: 1.~Blah Blah Blah~29.

It's a pity there aren't exactly 30 things.  

[Alvron he/him]

9 hours ago, harambe said:

Btw i got frozen 

preservation you kinda wasted your shardic ability this turn. even I voted for myself 

Are you saying that when we lynch you, you still won't die?

Also, I suspect that Ruin didn't attack anyone the last couple of cycles was because they were inactive and have now lost their Shard.  Hopefully they can kill Harambe should they survive the lynch.  I'm doubtful of that happening given all the other lies/misdirections that's happening but still.

Edited December 28, 2016 by Alvron

[Dalinar Kholin]

11 hours ago, Kasimir said:

It's interesting that Ruin didn't kill harambe for fake-claiming Ruin. (Hells, he claimed so many things I'm not even bothering to keep track of his role-claims.) Either Ruin wasn't active, or Ruin simply thought that he was better off not night-killing harambe - possibly because he thought harambe had a Shard or something. (Or maybe he thought harambe was Team Shard.)
 

Well, Ruin has as of yet not killed a single player. It's probable he's inactive? 

Also, we should consider it's highly improbable harambe is actually a member of the 17th shard. That drew way to much attention to him and essentially resulted in his assured death. As much as I believe we have no other strong option but to kill him, I don't think killing him will give us any information. Why do you think his lynch will give us good information @Magestar?

5 hours ago, Elenion said:

Either:

1. Harambe is village, 17th, or Auto, and Odium left him alive knowing that we'd do their hard work for them.

Or

2.  Harambe is working with Odium and so escaped Shattering that way.

 

 I'm inclined to believe the former, but I'm not involved enough in this game to suggest a good lynch alternative. I'll be home in about 3 hours and will figure things out then.

I agree, got any other ideas for a lynch?

 

12 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

I have to kill myself, because I promised I would. I promised to kill myself to prevent Hoid, odium and Autonomy from converting me, because i'm the closest thing we have to a confirmed villager.

I won't kill myself only if I get converted and ordered not to, or if half of the village wants me to stay alive.

so while we really don't have enough information, it needs to happen anyway.

I understand, but promising to kill yourself also makes you a dangerous target. I think that the democratic self lynch would be an effective method to keep that risk in check.

Worst case scenario you get converted, and you manage to convince us not to lynch you for the rest of the game (but I find that highly unlikely given your push for it and we could put a cap on it), and the village is signifignatly detrimentented.

Medium Case: you get converted, do some damage, and then we lynch/kill you with odium/ruin.

Best Case: You get converted, we figure it out fast or just coincidentally kill you because of our system in place, and you (thus one less conversion  gone from the 17th shard)  Or B: you never get converted and we have a confirmed villager on our side.

Of course, this puts me under suspiciion, if through my stupidity you have been converted and I'm defending you, I deserve to be lynched for my foolishness. 

[Elenion he/him]

We need a new discussion topic, and it looks like my first action after coming home from vacation will be to make one.

Lopen

I'm feeling paranoid about him. He's been awfully quiet this game, for one, but more than that I think he's more likely than most to be in one of Devotion's PMs. Unless Odium got Conq by chance, Odium was in a PM with Conq. Right now my evidence is circumstantial at best, but I want some village input. It's better than just hopping on the bandwagon, after all.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

15 minutes ago, Elenion said:

We need a new discussion topic, and it looks like my first action after coming home from vacation will be to make one.

Lopen

I'm feeling paranoid about him. He's been awfully quiet this game, for one, but more than that I think he's more likely than most to be in one of Devotion's PMs. Unless Odium got Conq by chance, Odium was in a PM with Conq. Right now my evidence is circumstantial at best, but I want some village input. It's better than just hopping on the bandwagon, after all.

Looks like my first action after coming home from vacation will be to defend myself.

So, yeah, just got back, so I'll have constant internet and I can use my laptop again. I think I already explained before, but I've been gone for the past week and was only able to get online by "borrowing" my sister's phone at random times.

I was in a PM made by Devotion, but only for 1 Cycle and Conquestor wasn't in it. There were about, 5 or 6 players in it I think and it was shut down after only 1 Cycle(I think). Other than that, I've only been on Sel, which has me, Alv, and Rubiks. Stick was on it on C1, but worldhopped away.

[Sart he/him]

27 minutes ago, Elenion said:

We need a new discussion topic, and it looks like my first action after coming home from vacation will be to make one.

Lopen

I'm feeling paranoid about him. He's been awfully quiet this game, for one, but more than that I think he's more likely than most to be in one of Devotion's PMs. Unless Odium got Conq by chance, Odium was in a PM with Conq. Right now my evidence is circumstantial at best, but I want some village input. It's better than just hopping on the bandwagon, after all.

I don't think that we can read that much into Odium's kills. Jondesu was killed Night 1, so I don't think Odium could know about his alignment. In my opinion, Jondesu was killed because he was trying to generate discussion. Conquestor was killed Night 2. I'm not sure it's likely that Odium was in a PM with Conquestor. With only 26 players, and 10 shards, there's about a 1 in 3 chance Odium hits a shard by pure luck. In addition, there are only 2 Devotion PMs going around right now. It's not the greatest odds that Odium and Conquestor to be in the same one.

In regards to the lynch, I have absolutely no idea what Harambe is doing. I was speculating that there was a secret shard whose win condition was to be lynched, but Straw said that he lost that shard, so I don't think that's the case anymore. I think he's just a misguided villager, but we need information about the vote manipulation, so he needs to be killed.

[Magestar he/him]

1 hour ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

As much as I believe we have no other strong option but to kill him, I don't think killing him will give us any information. Why do you think his lynch will give us good information @Magestar?

Having his alignment should clarify some of his actions, plus, it will be interesting to see how people interacted with him after his alignment is revealed.  Also, I'm not seeing a good reason to keep him alive.

[Elenion he/him]

I was right about something this game!  Can you give us some details about that PM, such as who was in it and what was discussed? If you die I don't want that info to be lost.

[Magestar he/him]

6 minutes ago, Elenion said:

I was right about something this game!  Can you give us some details about that PM, such as who was in it and what was discussed? If you die I don't want that info to be lost.

There were 5 or 6 players in it.   It won't be lost easily.  I can tell you I was in it, which tells you something about the person who started it.  I can also say it struggled for activity, IMO.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

10 minutes ago, Elenion said:

I was right about something this game!  Can you give us some details about that PM, such as who was in it and what was discussed? If you die I don't want that info to be lost.

Yeah, what Mage said. I don't think there was much discussion, and I'd rather not say who all was in it, in case Devotion decided to include themselves.

[Kasimir he/him]

3 hours ago, Sart said:

I don't think that we can read that much into Odium's kills. Jondesu was killed Night 1, so I don't think Odium could know about his alignment. In my opinion, Jondesu was killed because he was trying to generate discussion. Conquestor was killed Night 2. I'm not sure it's likely that Odium was in a PM with Conquestor. With only 26 players, and 10 shards, there's about a 1 in 3 chance Odium hits a shard by pure luck. In addition, there are only 2 Devotion PMs going around right now. It's not the greatest odds that Odium and Conquestor to be in the same one.

In regards to the lynch, I have absolutely no idea what Harambe is doing. I was speculating that there was a secret shard whose win condition was to be lynched, but Straw said that he lost that shard, so I don't think that's the case anymore. I think he's just a misguided villager, but we need information about the vote manipulation, so he needs to be killed.

 

10 hours ago, Elenion said:

Either:

1. Harambe is village, 17th, or Auto, and Odium left him alive knowing that we'd do their hard work for them.

Or

2.  Harambe is working with Odium and so escaped Shattering that way.

 

 I'm inclined to believe the former, but I'm not involved enough in this game to suggest a good lynch alternative. I'll be home in about 3 hours and will figure things out then.

I don't understand these two quotes. Odium can win with 17S or with the Village. Odium has absolutely no reason to kill someone for generating discussion - or for not generating discussion. Odium is literally indifferent to anything that doesn't point to someone having a Shard. You're ascribing Eliminator motivations to someone who doesn't have to play that way, and it doesn't make sense; even worse, it may be an unwarranted assumption.

Ditto for the second quote. You're assuming Odium knows alignments or cares about alignments. Odium has no reason to, and if Harambe is Autonomy, then Odium has all the more no reason allow Harambe to be left alive. Doing so simply allows the Shard to pass to an investee, which means Odium has to go through the work of hunting down Autonomy yet again to shatter it.

Sart does raise a good point about Harambe possibly being a Fool-kind of Shard. @Straw, do you think you could clarify if your Shard carried a different win con with it? Otherwise, I think we should just lynch Harambe and be done with it (and I will shift my vote once we get a little closer to the close.) I definitely applaud Elenion trying to open the discussion, though, because there's no reason to just focus on Harambe this cycle. @Sart, you sound like you were in both Devotion PMs. Do you think you could give us a general idea of what was going on in there?

[Straw he/him]

My shard carried the Village win con. I had a secret role shard

[Dustbringer12 he/him]

@Straw 

Arcanum Unbounded Spoiler

Spoiler

is it ambition?

Edited December 29, 2016 by RubiksCube

[Straw he/him]

SPOILERS(yes) you have violated the 17th shard's spoiler policy. Prepare for obliteration.

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, Straw said:

SPOILERS(yes) you have violated the 17th shard's spoiler policy. Prepare for obliteration.

Are you sure the Shard isn't Obliteration?  

[Dustbringer12 he/him]

3 minutes ago, Straw said:

SPOILERS(yes)

Is that a confirmation to my question?

[Straw he/him]

Yes, it is a confirmation.