Anniversary Game 2: Return of the Koloss

[Alvron]

Hmm, so my vote was soothed off Hero.  (I don't like it when people mess with my votes)  I highly doubt Maill would've been the one to do that since it would mean he dies.  Most likely he Soothed Ripples vote on him.  So to me it means either Hero is a Soother or he's Spiked and has a Soother partner.

 

Hey, missing Coinshot.  Care to kill Hero for us tonight so we can learn which one?  Please.

[Mark IV]

Well, I feel that it wouldn't be all that realistic if El entered into a romantic mood the day after her home burnt down. So, I'll head into a friend zone, eh? How's that sound?

-------------- - - - - - - - - - - --------------

"Tiring" Four said. "I was out all day long, in the woods, gathering firewood. Since we do freeze at night, while sleeping, I thought we could put up a fire. What do you say, eh? "

[Haelbarde]

As Alv pointed out, it seems we might have a Spiked Soother - They certainly paid no attention to my suggestion of scanning for the Spiked Smoker. I don't suppose anyone has any clues as to who the other Soother is?

Edit: Hero didn't post last cycle, did he? But he's been on the Shard. Currently of the opinion that he's one of our Spiked. So Coinshot/Mistborn, Hero would be my suggestion for a kill as well.

I'll try and collate info and post some final thoughts before end of cycle, incase the Spiked have had a Mistborn who has finally rolled Steel.

Edited January 17, 2016 by Haelbarde

[Herowannabe]

*comes back to check the thread*

*sees he was very nearly lynched* :S

Thanks to whatever soother trusted me enough to save me!

Not a great time to go inactive for a day or two. Sorry everyone, been busy. I'll reread things and reply to them before the cycle is over.

But in the meantime let me just affirm that I am NOT spiked, nor am I a Soother. However, neither do I have any important role for the villagers, so if I do get taken out by a Coinshot/Mistborn, we wouldn't be out much- just the loss of one semi-active villager.

Edit: fixed typo

Edited January 17, 2016 by Herowannabe

[Haelbarde]

Okay, so some belated quick links:

Quicklinks

Signups
Night 1
Day 1
Night 2
Day 2
Night 3
Day 3
Night 4
Day 4
Night 5
Day 5
Night 6
Day 6
Night 7
Day 7

Player List:

1. Mailliw73 - Maill (The Cobbler)
2. Haelbarde - Edrab Leah (Author)
3. Seonid - Senn Conrad (Minor Nobleman) Village Regular 
4. IrulelikeSTINK - STINK (Glitched AI in the Shape of a Horse) Village Tineye
5. Herowannabe - Herwynbe (Terris Steward)
6. OrlokTsubodai - Locke Tekiel (Estranged Son of a Noble House)
7. Kasimir - Kassien Estvaril (Apothecary) Village Smoker
8. Bort - Bartholomew the Blind (Knight Awkward)
9. Wyrmhero - The Surprisingly Mediocre Amazing Wyrm (Traveling Magician) Village Tineye
10. Ripplegylf - Clara Lepinceau (Former Noblewoman)
11. Venture Mistborn - Alexander Venture (Mute Beggar) Village Regular
12. Mark IV - Unknown (Amnesiac)
13. WeiryWriter - Riew (Skaa Courier)
14. Hellscythe - Hellscythe (Madman who thinks he's a ghost) Village Smoker
15. Adavantos - Gidomara Grae (Professional Procrastinator) Village Smoker
16. Araris Valerian - Aralis (Skeptical Elderly Grump) Village Regular
17. Phattemer - Exisa (Small and Paranoid)
18. Madashar Mistborn - Kilven (Blacksmith)
19. Creccio - Inor Haze (Mortician/Taxidermist)
20. Shallan / Kipper - Citona Vinid (Bellringer) Village Regular
21. Alvron - Vron (Alchemist and all around resurrected guy)
22. Lightsworn Panda - Jain (Panda, of course)
23. Sart - Slart (Quiet Hunter)
24. TheMightyLopen - Lippen (Head of the Sewing Circle) Spiked Lurcher
25. Elkanah - Kane (Florist)
26. Elbereth - El (Apprentice Apothecary)
27. Luckat - Lu (Town Busybody)

Now, for info:

Verified:

Haelbarde - Village Seeker

OrlokTsubodai -

Alvron -

Luckat -

 

Active: 

Mailliw73 - 

Herowannabe - 

Elkanah - 

Mark IV - 

Ripplegylf - 

Sart - 

Elbereth - 

 

Semi-inactive:

Phattemer - Hasn't said a lot, but is GMing the QF atm

 

Madashar Mistborn - 

WeiryWriter - Online and posting, but not in the game

 

Inactive:

Creccio - Last online: 28 December

Bort -  Last online: Jan 5th

Lightsworn Panda - Last online: 16 Jan, but hasn't posted much at all

 

Dead:

Seonid - Village Regular 

Araris Valerian - Village Regular

Shallan / Kipper - Village Regular

Venture Mistborn - Village Regular

IrulelikeSTINK - Village Tineye

Wyrmhero - Village Tineye

Kasimir - Village Smoker

Hellscythe - Village Smoker

Adavantos - Village Smoker

 

TheMightyLopen - Spiked Lurcher

 

The role distribution for AG1, which had 28 players was as follows:

Regular(8)

Smoker(5)

Soother(3)

Tineye(2)

Mistborn(2)

Lurcher(2)

Rioter(2)

Thug(2)

Coinshot(1)

Seeker(1)

 

 

Eliminators(5): Mistborn, Lurcher, Smoker(x2), Rioter

So far, there's been some similarity to this game. We know the spiked had a Lurcher, and I strongly suspect they have a smoker, with a fair chance of one of the Soothers we've encountered being a Spiked. 

 

Probably my picks for eliminators would be mainly Mail and Hero. If they were both spiked, I expect there'd only be one more player on their team. 

[Herowannabe]

Okay, I'm back and have read through everything I missed. Wow. REALLY not a good cycle to go inactive for. Sorry everyone. I am in the process of typing up my thoughts, theories, and suspicions and will try to have them posted before the cycle ends in case I don't survive until tomorrow. 

[Herowannabe]

Okay, let's see here. I'm reposting some stuff and stating obvious things just to help me work through things I see. First, Hael's list:

 

Verified:

Haelbarde - Village Seeker

OrlokTsubodai -

Alvron - (not smoking cycle 7)

Luckat -

 

Active: 

Mailliw73 - (smoked cycle 7)

Herowannabe - 

Elkanah - 

Mark IV - 

Ripplegylf - (not smoking cycle 7)

Sart - 

Elbereth - 

 

Semi-inactive:

Phattemer - Hasn't said a lot, but is GMing the QF atm

 

Madashar Mistborn - 

WeiryWriter - Online and posting, but not in the game

 

Inactive:

Creccio - Last online: 28 December

Bort -  Last online: Jan 5th

Lightsworn Panda - Last online: 16 Jan, but hasn't posted much at all - Thug down one life

 

Dead:

Seonid - Village Regular 

Araris Valerian - Village Regular

Shallan / Kipper - Village Regular

Venture Mistborn - Village Regular

IrulelikeSTINK - Village Tineye

Wyrmhero - Village Tineye

Kasimir - Village Smoker

Hellscythe - Village Smoker

Adavantos - Village Smoker

 

TheMightyLopen - Spiked Lurcher

 

It's probably worth noting that Jain was a Thug, but is now down one life. I added that little bit in.

 

From this past cycle:

 

Votes before manipulation:

Hael (1): Orlok

Mailliw (3): Phattemer, Sart, Ripple
Hero (3): Alvron, Hael, Mailliw

 

Actual votes:

 

Maill (2): Exisa/Phattemer, Sart

Herwynbe (2): Maill, Edrab/Haelbarde

Edrab (1): Locke/Orlok

No Votes (12): Herwynbe, Bartholomew, Clara, Unknown, Riew, Kilven, Inor, Vron, Jain, Kane, El, Lu

 

So we had two people soothed:

First, Alvron (who was confirmed by Haelbarde) was soothed off of me. The fact that he was targeted by a soother either means that Soother#1 was spiked, or that he was a Villager who was blatantly ignoring Hael's suggestion to scan non-confirmed players to try to find Smokers. 

 

Second, Ripple was soothed off of Maill. I don't have as many insights to draw from this one.

 

Either way, we can now add Alvron and Ripple to the list of people who weren't smoking Maill last cycle. It doesn't tell us much, but hey, I'll note that on the list above anyway. 

 

Also, it seems likely that we either have 1 Village Soother and 1 Spiked Soother, or we have 2 Village Soothers who sometimes work against each other. It seems unlikely that we have 2 Spiked Soothers working against each other. The fact that Alvron was Soothed suggests to me that we have 1 vSoother and 1 sSoother though. 

 

Now as for Maill- I suspected him before, but after the last cycle I'm definitely of the opinion that he needs to be lynched/killed, whether or not his erratic behavior is "part of his play style." There is just too much stacked up against him. His erratic voting patterns shaky reasonings for the same just for starters. Also the fact that he was smoked last cycle should be a huge red flag. Mathematically speaking, there is at least a 50% chance that he is a Smoker and was Smoking himself. The other alternative is that someone else (presumably spiked) is a Smoker and targeted Maill. But really, the odds are much higher against Maill. 

 

Assume for a minute that the sSmoker was not Maill and was simply trying to block Hael's scan. There were a few likely targets, and Maill was definitely one of them, so we'll put it at a 33% chance that they guessed right.

 

Another possibility is that the sSmoker was not Maill and smoked Maill because he is also an Eliminator with a useful role that the sSmoker was trying to protect from being scanned.

 

And lastly, there is the possibility that Maill was the Smoker in the first place (again, a 50% chance that this was the case) and if he is, then he is almost certainly an Eliminator. 

 

Do the math, and there is a very high likelihood that Maill is an Eliminator, just from the fact that he was being smoked last cycle. Add to that all of his suspicious behavior and erratic tendencies, his outing of Haelbarde and the group of Verified players, and I will be SHOCKED if Maill is a villager. Its too late to do anything about it during this night phase, but come the day cycle we need to lynch Maill. 

 

Out of time for this night phase, have to post this before it ends. Will post more during the day phase. 

[Metacognition]

Day 8: First Words

Edrab was a writer in the same way that an apprentice was a Blacksmith; both knew all the skills, but had never made anything of their own.

It wasn’t that he didn’t try. In fact, he had a whole world sketched out inside his head. It had magic and ancient artifacts and people that could talk to animals and horrible monsters and dream worlds and an epic battle against the forces of pure evil. He knew that if he could ever get it out, it would easily take him the rest of his life to be able to tell the tale.

And that was the problem. Getting it out was proving to be more difficult than he thought. He had restarted the story hundreds of times already to no avail. The book he carried with him, though halfway filled, was just him trying to get the intro right. He knew that if he got that down, the rest, like water breaking through a dam, would just pour out of him. As he sat at his desk, he tried again.

Time is circle-ish in nature, he wrote. Like a ball. Like a ball with a bright, red dot on it. And if you were to bounce the ball, the dot would be in different places and such. But sometime, it would come back to the same spot. And then, that spot would be the same, but different. And the ball would bounce down the corridor of time forever, like a…. like a…

Edrab scratched his pen through what he had just written. It was horrible. Where had the corridor idea even come from? Wasn’t the ball supposed to represent time? If it was, then how was time bouncing through time? It was all wibbly wobbly stuff and it wouldn’t do. He viewed time much more like a piece of fabric in the first place.

Edrab sighed. He supposed he couldn’t be too harsh on himself right now. His mind was already stretched thin. He spent his days arguing with his fellow villagers, trying to find the Spike that plagued Tyrian Falls. At night, he went out, hoping that his bronze would help him find them. Between the two, it didn’t leave one in the right frame of mind to get much writing done, let alone the time to do it. But he kept at it. He just needed that one break through. What else was spherical? A barrel? A dome? A wh-

A crash sounded from his bedroom. Edrab froze; barely even daring to breathe. He wasn’t much of a fighter, so when caught between the prospect of fight or flight, he choose flight. But his mind couldn’t decide on a direction, so like a deer in the headlights, he just sat there.

Nothing. No sounds accompanied the crash. Ten minutes later and still nothing.

Finally, Edrab’s heart started to slow down and rationality began kicking in. For all he knew, something had just fallen over and here he was, giving himself a heart attack over nothing. Everyone was jumping at the slightest noises these days, but that didn’t mean that every time something happened, it just had to be the Spiked. Sometimes gravity could be just as culpable.

But when he finally talked himself into checking, all his justifications were dashed just like the window to his bedroom had been. The cold wind blew in some of the snow that had built up on the window ledge, but other than that, the room was clear. There were no shadowy figures hiding in the corners, waiting to kill him.

He turned to get a blanket to hang over the window when his felt something intense hit his neck. At first he thought it was just one of the snowflakes drifting in the air landing on his skin, but when he reached up to wipe it away, his hand made contact with a dart. He stared at it for a minute, his mind trying to catch up to this turn of events. Which gave the poison time to start cycling through his body.

He stumbled his way out of the bedroom, his breathing already becoming erratic. He half fell before catching himself on his kitchen table; knocking his dinner plate off and onto the floor.

It surprised Edrab how interesting he found the plate. It rolled on its edge, rolling across the floor of his home like a wheel.

A wheel, he thought as his legs gave out from beneath him and he tumbled to the floor. Yes, of course. A wheel.

The Wheel of Time turns, and Ages come and pass, leaving memories that become legend. Legend fades to myth, and even myth is long forgotten when the Age that gave it birth comes again.

Yes. That is definitely how I should start my book, he thought before the poison devoured him.



Day 8 begins! You have 48 hours until the end of the turn.

Edrab was a Village Seeker!

Current Player List

Edited May 27, 2017 by Alvron

[Herowannabe]

Well crap. I'd like to point out my last second post (literally- after submitting the message I refreshed the page and Meta had already locked and transferred the thread to the main AG2 thread  ) in which I talk about a bunch of stuff and state my reasons for voting Maill today. 

[Mailliw73]

Again, Hero. Now I know I can trust Orlok and Alv and Lu. So Mark, Hero, and Elb are my top 3 suspects.

[Elbereth]

Meta, excellent writeup. Unfortunate for the villagers, but great all the same.

I... I believe I'm going to agree with Hero on this one. Maill.

[Elkanah]

@Mailliw, You've just named the six most active people left alive. Is there a reason for that?

Edit: ninjad by El

Edited January 18, 2016 by Elkanah

[Sart]

And again Mailliw. It's time this ended. There's a chance you might be a Villager, but at this point we need to lynch you. I'm assuming we have 4 Eliminators remaining. Since we only have 16 people remaining, that means that a fourth of the village is evil. Unfortunately, it's worse odds than that.

 

Two of our players (Creccio, and Bort) haven't been seen in weeks. In addition, four of our players, (Phattemer, Mashadar, Weiry, and Jain) have been active on the site, but haven't participated in this game very much. That puts our odds at 6 good guys vs. 4 Eliminators. That's of course assuming that the Inactives are actually good.

 

Generally speaking, Eliminators have more invested in any particular game, so they're more likely to participate. Still, even if one of them is an Eliminator, that still makes it 7 vs. 3. Worst case scenario, we only have one more lynch before the Eliminators win, unless some of the inactives start voting. We are not in a good situation right now. We need a lynch, and you're our best candidate.

[Mailliw73]

@Mailliw, You've just named the six most active people left alive. Is there a reason for that?

Edit: ninjad by El

Yes. Hael said he scanned Orlok, Alv, and Lu. So since he's good, we know they are too.

And with 6 inactives, the eliminators have voting power, I'd guess. We need every villager to vote for Elb or Hero or we won't win. Elb seemed to be on my side last cycle but then switched now.

Hero, I already told y'all that I'm a Soother, not a Smoker. So, I couldn't have Smoked myself.

[Herowannabe]

Yes. Hael said he scanned Orlok, Alv, and Lu. So since he's good, we know they are too.

And with 6 inactives, the eliminators have voting power, I'd guess. We need every villager to vote for Elb or Hero or we won't win. Elb seemed to be on my side last cycle but then switched now.

Hero, I already told y'all that I'm a Soother, not a Smoker. So, I couldn't have Smoked myself.

You did? I missed that.

Edit: still doesn't change my vote.

Edited January 18, 2016 by Herowannabe

[Mark IV]

Well, I've been waiting for this day cycle, hoping that I wouldn't die.

Maill, your reasons against me seem to be quite suspicious to me. You're providing claims that I can't defend against (because they're your opinions of how I've been acting). Now that, I feel, from my experience, is something an eliminator would do. So, here, my vote stays.

Also, you haven't died yet. Which is surprising. You, until now, have died on the first or second Cycle for these past few games, as far as I'm aware. So, that is another thing that pushes you up in my list.

[RippleGylf]

Maill, for the same reasons as before.

[Mashadar Mistborn]

Sorry I was not very active recently. I'm back. Since Orlok, Alv and Lu are good, they shouldn't be lynched. I'm a bit concerned about how quickly a lynch train formed on Maill, so if someone could explain all concerns to me, that would be appreciated.

Okay, I read Hero's last second post and it makes some sense, but with how quickly the lynch train came, I'm inclined to trust Maill.

Edited January 18, 2016 by Mashadar Mistborn

[Elkanah]

I'm beginning to wonder if we even have a lurcher. That seemed like an obvious protect.

Maill, I understand that those three are cleared, but they were also done of your top suspicions even after you knew Hael had checked them. It seems that you're trying to get rid of the active players.

Based on MR10, and QF11 I'm still wary of eliminators hiding in semi inactivity. My suspicions are the spiked are Maill or Hero, someone barely on like Phattemer or Weirywriter, and then Maybe one or two more, but I think if we kill Maill today and he turns out good, then Hero is probably spiked.

Edit: autocorrect is autoincorrect

Edited January 18, 2016 by Elkanah

[Mark IV]

I'm beginning to wonder if we even have a lurcher. That seemed like an obvious protect.

Good point. Alvron, could you confirm the presence of your aforementioned lurcher?

[Mailliw73]

Maill, I understand that those three are cleared, but they were also done of your top suspicions even after you knew Hael had checked them. It seems that you're trying to get rid of the active players.

I think if we kill Maill today and he turns out good, then Hero is probably spiked.

Edit: autocorrect is autoincorrect

Yes, because I didn't know they were scanned and then I didn't know it Hael was good.

The problem is, if that happens, the Spiked will likely have voting power until an inactive comes back.

[Sart]

All aboard the lynch train...

 

Vote Tally:

Mailliw (5): Hero, Elbereth, Sart, Mark, Ripple

Hero (1): Mailliw

 

We definitely have a bandwagon forming. This could mean two things. Mailliw might be a Villager, and the Eliminators have played us like a fiddle. If he's innocent, we're going to need a lot of luck to win this game. On the other hand, Mailliw could be an Eliminator, and his teammates have cut ties with him in order to look innocent.

 

There's one major piece of evidence for Mailliw that I should address. Mailliw knew that Haelbarde was our Seeker around Cycle 3. Normally, an Eliminator would jump at the chance to kill an important role. However, there's a problem with that line of reasoning. Mailliw was most likely the only non-verified person who knew Hael's role. If Hael died, it would immediately indicate him as evil. In addition, Mailliw had no way of knowing if Alv's story was true. If he killed Hael, and he turned out to not be a Seeker, then he would be in serious trouble. Mailliw, as an Eliminator, would be in a Catch-22. If he killed Hael, he would get rid of the Seeker, but almost immediately be killed. If he did nothing, he could trust his Smoker to shield the team, and take the risk of a scan. Clearly, he did the later. In addition, there's one other thing that struck me as odd about Hael's death today. Why didn't they kill him sooner? I believe on Night 3, they took out Venture, most likely because they didn't like his summaries. Why then did they not kill Hael, whose links were doing the same basic function? I believe they didn't kill him because they didn't want to implicate themselves. Therefore, I strongly believe that Mailliw is an Eliminator.

[Mailliw73]

Hael could easily be explained by a fear kill. He's been around long enough and is good enough for that to easily be a plausible solution.

In LG1, I was the lynch that sealed the village's doom. Don't make the mistake again. This time, it's Hero instead of Beetle who's manipulating, I think.

[Sart]

Hael could easily be explained by a fear kill. He's been around long enough and is good enough for that to easily be a plausible solution.

In LG1, I was the lynch that sealed the village's doom. Don't make the mistake again. This time, it's Hero instead of Beetle who's manipulating, I think.

 

You're still not making sense. I'm saying Hael should have been a fear kill. He was active every cycle, and the Eliminators were targeting people who made active contributions to the thread. He should have been killed earlier! Instead, he survived until he was revealed as the Seeker. You even made a point about that yesterday, when you were accusing him of being a fake Seeker. You're not addressing my concerns.

 

In addition, you're trying to confuse the issue by bringing up LG1. In that game, the village made the mistake of ignoring all the evidence, like role distributions, that pointed to the obvious Eliminator. In this case, your role of Soother also hurts your innocence. In a game with 3 Village Smokers, it would make sense for the Spiked to have a role-manipulator. Stop trying to confuse the issue here.

[Mailliw73]

You're still not making sense. I'm saying Hael should have been a fear kill. He was active every cycle, and the Eliminators were targeting people who made active contributions to the thread. He should have been killed earlier! Instead, he survived until he was revealed as the Seeker. You even made a point about that yesterday, when you were accusing him of being a fake Seeker. You're not addressing my concerns.

In addition, you're trying to confuse the issue by bringing up LG1. In that game, the village made the mistake of ignoring all the evidence, like role distributions, that pointed to the obvious Eliminator. In this case, your role of Soother also hurts your innocence. In a game with 3 Village Smokers, it would make sense for the Spiked to have a role-manipulator. Stop trying to confuse the issue here.

Sorry, I misread that. What do you want me to address? How I'm somehow suspicious because he didn't die when he role claimed to me? Of course he didn't! I'm not a Spiked. I have no clue how I'm supposed to address that.

I'm not confusing anything, I specifically said that it was a different game, and we won't be down players if I die, but we will likely have less actives than the Spiked. I know that being a Soother is not the best for me, but there is another. The one who keeps tying all the ones I Soothe on. They keep trying to get me lynched, in my opinion, while I soothe to stay alive.