Long Game 11: Twinborn Village

[ostrichofevil]

Yeah, I also have to agree with Neodymium.  Twelfthrootoftwo.  Alv.

[Newan]

Extension granted.  

[twelfthrootoftwo]

 

Twelfthrootoftwo, why are you voting for me if you know that I've been scanned?

Because putting a name in red tends to attract attention. For example, last time you posted was day 4, and my vote has caused you to post again. (You haven't answered my question, so I guess the vote is staying there for now.)

 

 

Whomever is charging Spikes, please be careful with them! I know everyone would like to have additional powers, but you could also wind up as a Spiked! Unless that's your intent, which then I wouldn't count you as a Villager anyways. 

They were charged from NPCs, which means they're the "Two metal spikes" item; they don't have a risk of changing alignment (except potentially to Koloss).

[Bort]

I was hoping to have my action report before joining in the conversation here, but it still hasn't arrived.

My vote this cycle is for Alvron. A few of us have suspicions about him and decided the village may be better off without his headstones.

[jaelre]

Sorry for not showing up earlier, I don't have much to say in my defense, I have been playing, yes, but my attention has not been particularly focused on this game, and I have been losing interest. Add to that an irregular schedule and you can understand why I haven't been posting. I guess I have to thank a risked lynch for being drawn back again. I realize my actions have been a hindrance though.

 

What I would like to point out though, after a very brief review of the past discussions, is that while many people have been trying to start a discussion, few have actually engaged in one. Which is actually a great way to stifle it, while not looking suspicious at all. For instance, Wonko has been making some consistently good points. Meta on the other hand, has encouraged people to discuss time and again, but hasn't said much of consequence. And he wound Sart up against me, albeit, I think and hope, involuntarily.
Talking of Sart, I don't personally see much wrong in what he did but for the recklessness of his action. Trying to prove oneself in that way is not, in my opinion, the best way. But fortunately no harm was done, and I do share the fault of it.

But coming to the voting part: Meta, I would kindly (and I guess somewhat childishly) encourage you to act as you preach.

[Surgebound Rainspren]

I have some sources that say Alvron is spiked. However my vote might change when I get my actions back.

Who knows maybe I burst into flame and gained the ability to summon hordes of the undead last night.

[ostrichofevil]

Alright.  To answer your question, Twelfthrootoftwo, I had been in contact with Vine.  Before his death, he told us that he thought that he probably would be killed.

[Araris Valerian]

I have heard from a couple sources that Alvron has been confirmed somewhat as a Kandra. None of those sources themselves are people I have complete trust in though, and killing a Kandra is better than killing an innocent villager. There has been a rumor floating through the world of PMs that Meta is spiked. I myself don't know what to make of that since I have heard zero rationalization behind it, but I was wondering if anyone had more information on the whole story behind such a statement.

[Metacognition]

If you look back, I never set Sart on the path to you, Jaelre. My last vote was for Tulir and before that, Ella. I never really mentioned you unless you considered yourself amongst those hiding as inactive. If that's the case, well, there were plenty of inactives to choose from. The fact that Sart picked you out, out of everyone who's been inactive, is on him; not me. 

 

In fact, I find it curious that you would defend Sart so much, especially if it was based on a random chance read. It would be easy for two Spiked to make sure that they weren't in the same room as each other (as they'd know where they where) and thus provide an excuse for why an attack never happened ("Oops! I must have been in the wrong room!"). It would be a nice way to soft confirm someone. 

 

You think I'm unwilling to practice what I preach, then let's debate! You only started talking when you finally came under fire and you decided to defend one of those that was attacking you (Which, btw Sart, where are you and do you still feel the same way?). To add to that, Sart called you out and you did nothing. You didn't respond to him. It wasn't until I did that you finally got out of your shell and posted (ENTIRELY OOC: I understand that the lack of GM order has screwed up this game quite a bit, so I'm not taking that into account when determining player actions. I'm taking into account what people did within each specific turn). 

 

So explain to us: Why now? You're not up any more for the lynch than you were that last day turn; the first time you were up for a lynch. So a "risked lynch" was as valid last day turn as it is now; more so when you account that Sart was willing to kill you for your inactivity during the night. 

 

That seems a lot more risky to me than only me throwing a vote towards you, but you were absent throughout that cycle. Seems to me that you might have known that Sart's claim wouldn't hit*. That, to me, is worth looking in to! 

 

*I'm not claiming that Sart is Spiked and that they were working together (though they might be). I'm only claiming that Jaelre knew that he wasn't in B2 due to inactivity and thus knew that if that was what Sart was basing his read on, then he wouldn't die. 

Edited April 26, 2015 by Metacognition

[Alvron]

Rolan worked on his final gravestone.  It was the one that all stone carvers didn't want to do.  Their own headstone.

The village had turned against him.  Rolan had done nothing wrong but that was enough apparently.  Keeping your head down and trying not to draw attention was now all it took for the mob to think you had joined the ranks of the spiked.

Letting out a sigh of regret Rolan looked at the piece of stone that would forever mark the place of his rest.

Here Lies Rolan
Dead before his time.

Stop ye travellers as you pass by
As you are now, so once was I
As I am now, soon you shall be
Prepare yourself to follow me.

 

Heading inside his small workshop Rolan gathered up his notes.  Even though he would soon be dead it didn't mean that his work wouldn't continue.  His apprentice Jain would have to see to the rest of the commissioned epitaphs.

Once everything was in order he once more went outside to await the mob that would soon arrive calling for his head.  Glancing one final time at his final masterpiece Rolan dropped the stack of notes.  Someone had defaced his tombstone.  Written under his carving in blood red letters was the following.

 

To follow you

I am not content.

Until I know

which way you went

[Sart]

Alright, let me preface this by saying that I still haven't received my actions yet, so this might become outdated.

 

Honestly, I'm not sure what the deal is with Jaelre. He clearly was active, as I wasn't able to kill him, but at the same time, why didn't he respond after I posted a message. I assume he just left the Town Square after I posted. It's suspicious, but I don't want to force a lynch. We need answers. I know there's been some trusted groups forming, so hopefully we can work from there.

[Mailliw73]

I feel like I've explained this way too many times but, here we go. Somebody did a double enhanced tin scan and showed me the results last night. This was for period 2, and I didn't show up in any of the rooms. I also don't have Feruchemical iron or Feruchemical atium, so I assumed that I had been killed. Turns out the GM confused something, and I just got left out on accident.,

Sorry, I do remember seeing that now. Araris. Alv. I've also heard from multiple sources that you're spiked. So sorry, but I will be looking into those responsible if you die.

 

GMs, can you let us know when all the PMs are sent out and when the cycle will be over?

[Tulir]

I know the GMs have a lot on their plate, so I would advocate that this current cycle lasts the normal cycle length from when we get our PMs.

[Newan]

Yes, the cycle will go for a while after the last PM gets sent out.  It won't be exactly 48 hours, because I want it to still end at the same time of night, but it will be thereabouts.  

 

Again, sorry for the wait, but life always manages to throw a wrench into things.  The PMs will come when they come.  

[twelfthrootoftwo]

Alright.  To answer your question, Twelfthrootoftwo, I had been in contact with Vine.  Before his death, he told us that he thought that he probably would be killed.

Much as I am intrigued, that sounds like you're not going to give me any more. Ostrich

 

There seems to be something rather compelling against Alv in the PMs if six people have "good reason" to vote for him. He, Smart and Jae are also tied together by the lynch last cycle - Alv poked Smart, a bandwagon formed based on that (Alv did not remove his vote, but if we believe Bort, it didn't count anyway), Smart offered to kill Jae to prove himself, and also voted for Jae. Perhaps we can draw something from that. (I'm broadly grouping kandra into Twinborn here, since I would expect on the whole their actions would be reasonably similar, and because 3^3 states is too much work.)

 

If Alv is Spiked:

 

If Smart is Spiked:

Would Alv have voted for Smart? Potentially. It would be a way to galvanise a less active teammate, but (in theory) not much of a risk, being a poke vote that could be removed without drawing too much attention. In this scenario, Alv knew his vote wouldn't count (due to him not sleeping) and didn't want to risk pulling off the vote when it became a bandwagon.

 

If Jae is Spiked:

Would Smart have voted for Jae? In theory, it could be done for similar reasons to Alv voting for Smart. However, that leads to three Spiked publicly interacting like that for no real reason, which is dangerous and thus unlikely.

Would Smart have offered to kill Jae? Unlikely for similar reasons, but IMO more plausible. Smart gets a trust boost, prods a teammate into action, and Jae isn't actually in danger. Involves revealing Smart's role, so the Spiked would be relying on him essentially being cleared for the idea to work. (If we consider what Ostrich said to imply that the Spiked were targeting Vine as the Feruchemical zinc, they wouldn't need to worry about him getting scanned.)

 

If Jae is Twinborn:

Would Smart have voted for Jae? Yes - ease the pressure of the lynch with a viable target. The vote came rather late in the cycle to be expected to have an effect, though.

Would Smart have offered to kill Jae? Again, yes. If he otherwise believed he would be lynched, revealing the extra Spiked kill role (which, in this scenario, they have been holding in reserve) is preferable, letting them hold the line on numbers. Freely killing a Twinborn is a bonus. Alternatively (and more likely), the kill role claim was a bluff and he already knew Jae was elsewhere so the failed 'kill' wouldn't be questioned.

 

If Smart is Twinborn:

Would Alv have voted for Smart? Yes. Decent logic, applied to a Twinborn.

 

If Jae is Spiked/Twinborn (doesn't really matter):

Would Smart have voted for Jae? Yes, because (as above) he wanted to survive. The issue again is the lateness of the vote.

Would Smart have offered to kill Jae? Possibly. Proves his power, and kills an inactive. He is publicly revealed as a kill role, though, which is something that could perhaps have been better done via PM to some trusted people.

 

If Alv is Twinborn: (Humour me; I don't know the persuasive arguments against him.)

 

If Smart is Spiked:

Would Alv have voted for Smart? Yes, for obvious reasons.

 

If Jae is Spiked:

Would Smart have voted for Jae?

Would Smart have offered to kill Jae? These go as for the similar case with Alv being spiked. They're somewhat more likely, however, since there's one less Spiked in the spotlight.

 

If Jae is Twinborn:

Would Smart have voted for Jae?

Would Smart have offered to kill Jae? As for Alv spiked. Smart is under more pressure here as he doesn't have any indication of which votes will count.

 

If Smart is Twinborn:

Would Alv have voted for Smart? Yes.

 

If Jae is Spiked/Twinborn:

Would Smart have voted for Jae?

Would Smart have offered to kill Jae? As for Alv spiked.

 

 

I should make a judgement on which case is most likely, but it's late and I feel like I've forgotten something important   Probably Jae defending Smart. I might come back and add that tomorrow.

[Bort]

 

(Alv did not remove his vote, but if we believe Bort, it didn't count anyway)

 

Just to clarify, I was referring to my own vote that cycle being wasted, not Alvron's. I have no idea what happened to his, but as there were two voters, but only only vote, I can guess.

[Tulir]

 

Much as I am intrigued, that sounds like you're not going to give me any more. Ostrich

 

There seems to be something rather compelling against Alv in the PMs if six people have "good reason" to vote for him. He, Smart and Jae are also tied together by the lynch last cycle - Alv poked Smart, a bandwagon formed based on that (Alv did not remove his vote, but if we believe Bort, it didn't count anyway), Smart offered to kill Jae to prove himself, and also voted for Jae. Perhaps we can draw something from that. (I'm broadly grouping kandra into Twinborn here, since I would expect on the whole their actions would be reasonably similar, and because 3^3 states is too much work.)

 

If Alv is Spiked:

 

If Smart is Spiked:

Would Alv have voted for Smart? Potentially. It would be a way to galvanise a less active teammate, but (in theory) not much of a risk, being a poke vote that could be removed without drawing too much attention. In this scenario, Alv knew his vote wouldn't count (due to him not sleeping) and didn't want to risk pulling off the vote when it became a bandwagon.

 

If Jae is Spiked:

Would Smart have voted for Jae? In theory, it could be done for similar reasons to Alv voting for Smart. However, that leads to three Spiked publicly interacting like that for no real reason, which is dangerous and thus unlikely.

Would Smart have offered to kill Jae? Unlikely for similar reasons, but IMO more plausible. Smart gets a trust boost, prods a teammate into action, and Jae isn't actually in danger. Involves revealing Smart's role, so the Spiked would be relying on him essentially being cleared for the idea to work. (If we consider what Ostrich said to imply that the Spiked were targeting Vine as the Feruchemical zinc, they wouldn't need to worry about him getting scanned.)

 

If Jae is Twinborn:

Would Smart have voted for Jae? Yes - ease the pressure of the lynch with a viable target. The vote came rather late in the cycle to be expected to have an effect, though.

Would Smart have offered to kill Jae? Again, yes. If he otherwise believed he would be lynched, revealing the extra Spiked kill role (which, in this scenario, they have been holding in reserve) is preferable, letting them hold the line on numbers. Freely killing a Twinborn is a bonus. Alternatively (and more likely), the kill role claim was a bluff and he already knew Jae was elsewhere so the failed 'kill' wouldn't be questioned.

 

If Smart is Twinborn:

Would Alv have voted for Smart? Yes. Decent logic, applied to a Twinborn.

 

If Jae is Spiked/Twinborn (doesn't really matter):

Would Smart have voted for Jae? Yes, because (as above) he wanted to survive. The issue again is the lateness of the vote.

Would Smart have offered to kill Jae? Possibly. Proves his power, and kills an inactive. He is publicly revealed as a kill role, though, which is something that could perhaps have been better done via PM to some trusted people.

 

If Alv is Twinborn: (Humour me; I don't know the persuasive arguments against him.)

 

If Smart is Spiked:

Would Alv have voted for Smart? Yes, for obvious reasons.

 

If Jae is Spiked:

Would Smart have voted for Jae?

Would Smart have offered to kill Jae? These go as for the similar case with Alv being spiked. They're somewhat more likely, however, since there's one less Spiked in the spotlight.

 

If Jae is Twinborn:

Would Smart have voted for Jae?

Would Smart have offered to kill Jae? As for Alv spiked. Smart is under more pressure here as he doesn't have any indication of which votes will count.

 

If Smart is Twinborn:

Would Alv have voted for Smart? Yes.

 

If Jae is Spiked/Twinborn:

Would Smart have voted for Jae?

Would Smart have offered to kill Jae? As for Alv spiked

 

I should make a judgement on which case is most likely, but it's late and I feel like I've forgotten something important   Probably Jae defending Smart. I might come back and add that tomorrow.

 

Nice analysis.  I would like to see what your judgement on which case is more likely.

 

Now, I have been out of this game for a bit, so I don't feel as strongly as some of you do about Alvron.  If you all have acquired legitament information that he is Spiked, very nice job as he will likely die.  However, if he turns out not to have been Spiked, and would be very interested in learning where the information created to kill him originated from.

Edited April 28, 2015 by Tulir

[Aonar]

All PMs have been sent. You have roughly 49 hours left in the day, unless you'd prefer it to end tomorrow night. Sorry about the wait.

[twelfthrootoftwo]

Just to clarify, I was referring to my own vote that cycle being wasted, not Alvron's. I have no idea what happened to his, but as there were two voters, but only only vote, I can guess.

I interpreted your post to mean your vote figuratively didn't count - that it was there, but the amount of weirdness going on made it effectively worthless. Which meant that it must have been Alv's vote that literally didn't count.

 

Now for round two.

 

I’m using an Occam’s Razor-type logic here, in which something strange/unexplained inherent in a scenario makes that scenario less likely to have occurred. It’s not a precise method, because I’m sure we all agree that strange things certainly happen in these games, but it’s a useful tool in assessing the relative probability of each case. Comments apply to scenarios as a whole, not just this post.

 

If Alv is Spiked:

 

If Smart is Spiked:

 

If Jae is Spiked:

Would Jae have defended Smart? Perhaps. It draws another connection between them, but may have helped Smart's standing.

Comment: On the whole, this is an extremely risky move by the Spiked; it requires them accidentally starting a bandwagon and making multiple questionable decisions to try and get the situation under control. I can see it being tried only if Smart was both nearly inactive and had a powerful role.

 

If Jae is Twinborn:

Would Jae have defended Smart? If he believed Smart about being a kill role, he would have wanted to keep Smart safe. Since Meta's query about Smart stems from the circumstances around Jae, then Jae choosing to defend Smart could have seemed logical.

Comment: Mostly makes sense. The questionable parts here are whether Alv would poke a teammate (and I think he might), and how the Spiked knew Jae was elsewhere.

 

If Smart is Twinborn:

 

If Jae is Spiked:

Would Jae have defended Smart? Probably not. He may have been trying to win Smart to his cause, or defend a Villager who could be killed before him. But having a trusted Village kill role is bad for the Spiked; it's more likely Jae would have tried to keep suspicion on Smart. Unless that defence was intended to arouse suspicion; not something I can see an inactive Jae doing, but it's possible this was Alv's idea.

Comment: Both Smart and Jae have questionable actions here - respectively, publicly revealing his kill role, and defending said kill role. Both have possible explanations(Smart under pressure, Jae cosying up to/framing Smart), but two strange things in one case is worth noting.

 

If Jae is Twinborn:

Would Jae have defended Smart? As for Smart Spiked.

Comment: Smart revealing his role is the only strange part here. Overall, this is a plausible scenario.

 

If Alv is Twinborn:

 

If Smart is Spiked:

 

If Jae is Spiked:

Would Jae have defended Smart? It's more likely than the case where Alv is Spiked, as they don't have a third team member under fire. It's still a risk to draw that connection, though.

Comment: More plausible than all three Spiked, but requires Smart and Jae repeatedly drawing connections between each other. If we assume neither of them have been paying much attention to the game, it's possible, but still unlikely.

 

If Jae is Twinborn:

Would Jae have defended Smart? As for Alv Spiked.

Comment: The only question here is how the Spiked knew Jae's position.

 

If Smart is Twinborn:

 

If Jae is Spiked:

Would Jae have defended Smart? As for Alv Spiked, with the corollary that Alv can't advise Jae on casting suspicion on Smart with the defence.

Comment: Again, issues with Smart revealing his power and Jae defending a kill role. The absence of Alv on the Spiked team makes this one less likely.

 

If Jae is Twinborn:

Would Jae have defended Smart? As for Alv Spiked.

Comment: Then we've all wasted our efforts looking at these three. Again, the only question is why Smart revealed his role.

 

 

So, to give an overall view (Alv/Smart/Jae):

Likely

Spiked/Spiked/Twinborn

Spiked/Twinborn/Twinborn

Twinborn/Spiked/Twinborn

 

Possible

Spiked/Twinborn/Spiked

Twinborn/Spiked/Spiked

Twinborn/Twinborn/Twinborn

 

Unlikely

Spiked/Spiked/Spiked

Twinborn/Twinborn/Spiked

 

Of the three ‘likely’ scenarios, my gut feeling is leaning towards the Spiked/Twinborn/Twinborn case. That’s partly based on my read of Smart, though. The analysis suggests Jae is likely to be Twinborn; if I’m wrong there, then I’d go for ?/Twinborn/Spiked over ?/Spiked/Spiked as IMO two smaller problems are more probable than one large problem.

[Metacognition]

A lot of people were saying they were waiting till they received their PMs of the night or that their actions might change due to that. Well, we know that all PMs have been sent out now, to where is everyone? 

[Bort]

I'm changing nothing. I'm happy with where my vote is.

[neodymium]

The PM I received has not changed my vote.  It seems as though many have voted.  Should we just end the day tonight?  I feel like it's been a VERY long day.

[dowanx]

I am voting for Alvron.  It seems that the trusted groups that have formed believe he is spiked and I would like to see how it plays out.  If Alvron is spiked and we lynch him great!  If he isn't spiked and we lynch him then we should gain a whole lot of information.  Either way it seems like the best decision for the village.

[Bort]

Sorry Rolan. We will surely miss your headstones.

Edited April 28, 2015 by Bort

[Lightsworn Panda]

Sorry Rolan. We will surely miss your headstones.

 

Don't worry about that. I'm next in line for the headstone business.