Long Game 11: Twinborn Village

[twelfthrootoftwo]

Alright.  To answer your question, Twelfthrootoftwo, I had been in contact with Vine.  Before his death, he told us that he thought that he probably would be killed.

Much as I am intrigued, that sounds like you're not going to give me any more. Ostrich

 

There seems to be something rather compelling against Alv in the PMs if six people have "good reason" to vote for him. He, Smart and Jae are also tied together by the lynch last cycle - Alv poked Smart, a bandwagon formed based on that (Alv did not remove his vote, but if we believe Bort, it didn't count anyway), Smart offered to kill Jae to prove himself, and also voted for Jae. Perhaps we can draw something from that. (I'm broadly grouping kandra into Twinborn here, since I would expect on the whole their actions would be reasonably similar, and because 3^3 states is too much work.)

 

If Alv is Spiked:

 

If Smart is Spiked:

Would Alv have voted for Smart? Potentially. It would be a way to galvanise a less active teammate, but (in theory) not much of a risk, being a poke vote that could be removed without drawing too much attention. In this scenario, Alv knew his vote wouldn't count (due to him not sleeping) and didn't want to risk pulling off the vote when it became a bandwagon.

 

If Jae is Spiked:

Would Smart have voted for Jae? In theory, it could be done for similar reasons to Alv voting for Smart. However, that leads to three Spiked publicly interacting like that for no real reason, which is dangerous and thus unlikely.

Would Smart have offered to kill Jae? Unlikely for similar reasons, but IMO more plausible. Smart gets a trust boost, prods a teammate into action, and Jae isn't actually in danger. Involves revealing Smart's role, so the Spiked would be relying on him essentially being cleared for the idea to work. (If we consider what Ostrich said to imply that the Spiked were targeting Vine as the Feruchemical zinc, they wouldn't need to worry about him getting scanned.)

 

If Jae is Twinborn:

Would Smart have voted for Jae? Yes - ease the pressure of the lynch with a viable target. The vote came rather late in the cycle to be expected to have an effect, though.

Would Smart have offered to kill Jae? Again, yes. If he otherwise believed he would be lynched, revealing the extra Spiked kill role (which, in this scenario, they have been holding in reserve) is preferable, letting them hold the line on numbers. Freely killing a Twinborn is a bonus. Alternatively (and more likely), the kill role claim was a bluff and he already knew Jae was elsewhere so the failed 'kill' wouldn't be questioned.

 

If Smart is Twinborn:

Would Alv have voted for Smart? Yes. Decent logic, applied to a Twinborn.

 

If Jae is Spiked/Twinborn (doesn't really matter):

Would Smart have voted for Jae? Yes, because (as above) he wanted to survive. The issue again is the lateness of the vote.

Would Smart have offered to kill Jae? Possibly. Proves his power, and kills an inactive. He is publicly revealed as a kill role, though, which is something that could perhaps have been better done via PM to some trusted people.

 

If Alv is Twinborn: (Humour me; I don't know the persuasive arguments against him.)

 

If Smart is Spiked:

Would Alv have voted for Smart? Yes, for obvious reasons.

 

If Jae is Spiked:

Would Smart have voted for Jae?

Would Smart have offered to kill Jae? These go as for the similar case with Alv being spiked. They're somewhat more likely, however, since there's one less Spiked in the spotlight.

 

If Jae is Twinborn:

Would Smart have voted for Jae?

Would Smart have offered to kill Jae? As for Alv spiked. Smart is under more pressure here as he doesn't have any indication of which votes will count.

 

If Smart is Twinborn:

Would Alv have voted for Smart? Yes.

 

If Jae is Spiked/Twinborn:

Would Smart have voted for Jae?

Would Smart have offered to kill Jae? As for Alv spiked.

 

 

I should make a judgement on which case is most likely, but it's late and I feel like I've forgotten something important   Probably Jae defending Smart. I might come back and add that tomorrow.

[Bort he/him]

 

(Alv did not remove his vote, but if we believe Bort, it didn't count anyway)

 

Just to clarify, I was referring to my own vote that cycle being wasted, not Alvron's. I have no idea what happened to his, but as there were two voters, but only only vote, I can guess.

[Tulir he/him]

 

Much as I am intrigued, that sounds like you're not going to give me any more. Ostrich

 

There seems to be something rather compelling against Alv in the PMs if six people have "good reason" to vote for him. He, Smart and Jae are also tied together by the lynch last cycle - Alv poked Smart, a bandwagon formed based on that (Alv did not remove his vote, but if we believe Bort, it didn't count anyway), Smart offered to kill Jae to prove himself, and also voted for Jae. Perhaps we can draw something from that. (I'm broadly grouping kandra into Twinborn here, since I would expect on the whole their actions would be reasonably similar, and because 3^3 states is too much work.)

 

If Alv is Spiked:

 

If Smart is Spiked:

Would Alv have voted for Smart? Potentially. It would be a way to galvanise a less active teammate, but (in theory) not much of a risk, being a poke vote that could be removed without drawing too much attention. In this scenario, Alv knew his vote wouldn't count (due to him not sleeping) and didn't want to risk pulling off the vote when it became a bandwagon.

 

If Jae is Spiked:

Would Smart have voted for Jae? In theory, it could be done for similar reasons to Alv voting for Smart. However, that leads to three Spiked publicly interacting like that for no real reason, which is dangerous and thus unlikely.

Would Smart have offered to kill Jae? Unlikely for similar reasons, but IMO more plausible. Smart gets a trust boost, prods a teammate into action, and Jae isn't actually in danger. Involves revealing Smart's role, so the Spiked would be relying on him essentially being cleared for the idea to work. (If we consider what Ostrich said to imply that the Spiked were targeting Vine as the Feruchemical zinc, they wouldn't need to worry about him getting scanned.)

 

If Jae is Twinborn:

Would Smart have voted for Jae? Yes - ease the pressure of the lynch with a viable target. The vote came rather late in the cycle to be expected to have an effect, though.

Would Smart have offered to kill Jae? Again, yes. If he otherwise believed he would be lynched, revealing the extra Spiked kill role (which, in this scenario, they have been holding in reserve) is preferable, letting them hold the line on numbers. Freely killing a Twinborn is a bonus. Alternatively (and more likely), the kill role claim was a bluff and he already knew Jae was elsewhere so the failed 'kill' wouldn't be questioned.

 

If Smart is Twinborn:

Would Alv have voted for Smart? Yes. Decent logic, applied to a Twinborn.

 

If Jae is Spiked/Twinborn (doesn't really matter):

Would Smart have voted for Jae? Yes, because (as above) he wanted to survive. The issue again is the lateness of the vote.

Would Smart have offered to kill Jae? Possibly. Proves his power, and kills an inactive. He is publicly revealed as a kill role, though, which is something that could perhaps have been better done via PM to some trusted people.

 

If Alv is Twinborn: (Humour me; I don't know the persuasive arguments against him.)

 

If Smart is Spiked:

Would Alv have voted for Smart? Yes, for obvious reasons.

 

If Jae is Spiked:

Would Smart have voted for Jae?

Would Smart have offered to kill Jae? These go as for the similar case with Alv being spiked. They're somewhat more likely, however, since there's one less Spiked in the spotlight.

 

If Jae is Twinborn:

Would Smart have voted for Jae?

Would Smart have offered to kill Jae? As for Alv spiked. Smart is under more pressure here as he doesn't have any indication of which votes will count.

 

If Smart is Twinborn:

Would Alv have voted for Smart? Yes.

 

If Jae is Spiked/Twinborn:

Would Smart have voted for Jae?

Would Smart have offered to kill Jae? As for Alv spiked

 

I should make a judgement on which case is most likely, but it's late and I feel like I've forgotten something important   Probably Jae defending Smart. I might come back and add that tomorrow.

 

Nice analysis.  I would like to see what your judgement on which case is more likely.

 

Now, I have been out of this game for a bit, so I don't feel as strongly as some of you do about Alvron.  If you all have acquired legitament information that he is Spiked, very nice job as he will likely die.  However, if he turns out not to have been Spiked, and would be very interested in learning where the information created to kill him originated from.

Edited April 28, 2015 by Tulir

[Aonar he/him]

All PMs have been sent. You have roughly 49 hours left in the day, unless you'd prefer it to end tomorrow night. Sorry about the wait.

[twelfthrootoftwo]

Just to clarify, I was referring to my own vote that cycle being wasted, not Alvron's. I have no idea what happened to his, but as there were two voters, but only only vote, I can guess.

I interpreted your post to mean your vote figuratively didn't count - that it was there, but the amount of weirdness going on made it effectively worthless. Which meant that it must have been Alv's vote that literally didn't count.

 

Now for round two.

 

I’m using an Occam’s Razor-type logic here, in which something strange/unexplained inherent in a scenario makes that scenario less likely to have occurred. It’s not a precise method, because I’m sure we all agree that strange things certainly happen in these games, but it’s a useful tool in assessing the relative probability of each case. Comments apply to scenarios as a whole, not just this post.

 

If Alv is Spiked:

 

If Smart is Spiked:

 

If Jae is Spiked:

Would Jae have defended Smart? Perhaps. It draws another connection between them, but may have helped Smart's standing.

Comment: On the whole, this is an extremely risky move by the Spiked; it requires them accidentally starting a bandwagon and making multiple questionable decisions to try and get the situation under control. I can see it being tried only if Smart was both nearly inactive and had a powerful role.

 

If Jae is Twinborn:

Would Jae have defended Smart? If he believed Smart about being a kill role, he would have wanted to keep Smart safe. Since Meta's query about Smart stems from the circumstances around Jae, then Jae choosing to defend Smart could have seemed logical.

Comment: Mostly makes sense. The questionable parts here are whether Alv would poke a teammate (and I think he might), and how the Spiked knew Jae was elsewhere.

 

If Smart is Twinborn:

 

If Jae is Spiked:

Would Jae have defended Smart? Probably not. He may have been trying to win Smart to his cause, or defend a Villager who could be killed before him. But having a trusted Village kill role is bad for the Spiked; it's more likely Jae would have tried to keep suspicion on Smart. Unless that defence was intended to arouse suspicion; not something I can see an inactive Jae doing, but it's possible this was Alv's idea.

Comment: Both Smart and Jae have questionable actions here - respectively, publicly revealing his kill role, and defending said kill role. Both have possible explanations(Smart under pressure, Jae cosying up to/framing Smart), but two strange things in one case is worth noting.

 

If Jae is Twinborn:

Would Jae have defended Smart? As for Smart Spiked.

Comment: Smart revealing his role is the only strange part here. Overall, this is a plausible scenario.

 

If Alv is Twinborn:

 

If Smart is Spiked:

 

If Jae is Spiked:

Would Jae have defended Smart? It's more likely than the case where Alv is Spiked, as they don't have a third team member under fire. It's still a risk to draw that connection, though.

Comment: More plausible than all three Spiked, but requires Smart and Jae repeatedly drawing connections between each other. If we assume neither of them have been paying much attention to the game, it's possible, but still unlikely.

 

If Jae is Twinborn:

Would Jae have defended Smart? As for Alv Spiked.

Comment: The only question here is how the Spiked knew Jae's position.

 

If Smart is Twinborn:

 

If Jae is Spiked:

Would Jae have defended Smart? As for Alv Spiked, with the corollary that Alv can't advise Jae on casting suspicion on Smart with the defence.

Comment: Again, issues with Smart revealing his power and Jae defending a kill role. The absence of Alv on the Spiked team makes this one less likely.

 

If Jae is Twinborn:

Would Jae have defended Smart? As for Alv Spiked.

Comment: Then we've all wasted our efforts looking at these three. Again, the only question is why Smart revealed his role.

 

 

So, to give an overall view (Alv/Smart/Jae):

Likely

Spiked/Spiked/Twinborn

Spiked/Twinborn/Twinborn

Twinborn/Spiked/Twinborn

 

Possible

Spiked/Twinborn/Spiked

Twinborn/Spiked/Spiked

Twinborn/Twinborn/Twinborn

 

Unlikely

Spiked/Spiked/Spiked

Twinborn/Twinborn/Spiked

 

Of the three ‘likely’ scenarios, my gut feeling is leaning towards the Spiked/Twinborn/Twinborn case. That’s partly based on my read of Smart, though. The analysis suggests Jae is likely to be Twinborn; if I’m wrong there, then I’d go for ?/Twinborn/Spiked over ?/Spiked/Spiked as IMO two smaller problems are more probable than one large problem.

[Metacognition he/him]

A lot of people were saying they were waiting till they received their PMs of the night or that their actions might change due to that. Well, we know that all PMs have been sent out now, to where is everyone? 

[Bort he/him]

I'm changing nothing. I'm happy with where my vote is.

[neodymium]

The PM I received has not changed my vote.  It seems as though many have voted.  Should we just end the day tonight?  I feel like it's been a VERY long day.

[dowanx]

I am voting for Alvron.  It seems that the trusted groups that have formed believe he is spiked and I would like to see how it plays out.  If Alvron is spiked and we lynch him great!  If he isn't spiked and we lynch him then we should gain a whole lot of information.  Either way it seems like the best decision for the village.

[Bort he/him]

Sorry Rolan. We will surely miss your headstones.

Edited April 28, 2015 by Bort

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

Sorry Rolan. We will surely miss your headstones.

 

Don't worry about that. I'm next in line for the headstone business.

[Lord Pifferdoo he/him]

Hmmm...so now we know why Panda wants Alvron dead...

[luckat she/her]

First, I’m sorry I haven’t been very active in the thread. I’ve been busy for the last couple of weeks, but I should be less busy now, so hopefully I’ll be able to be more active.

Second, a vote tally:
Alvron (8): Wonko, Neo, Ostrich, Bort, Karlin, Maill, Dow, luckat
Nicroburst (1): Araris
Jaelre (1): Meta
Meta (1): Jaelre

I agree with the vote on Alvron. I’ve seen compelling evidence for it in PMs.

Finally, I have a plan to help us find the Spiked more efficiently, but it will require cooperation.

As has been mentioned, Ostrich was verified by Vine. I was also verified by Vine, and any of you can check that with Ostrich. We want to try to find the Spiked as best we can, and since we’re verified, we think it is a good idea for people to share information with us. If we have information about people’s powers, actions, items, and positions throughout the game, it will be possible to learn a lot about the identities, positions, and capabilities of the Spiked.

We want to organize this as efficiently and openly as possible. We need cooperation from as many people as possible for the information to be useful. We don’t want to turn this into a dictatorship at all, and what you share and what you do is entirely up to you. However, I hope you will see the benefit of getting a lot of information together.

[Metacognition he/him]

The days and the nights just seemed to drag on and on for Malrick; it seemed to him to be unaturally long. Perhaps it was in part that Cylkan wasn't still up on his feet and now Malrick was pulling double duty; both at the Alehouse and as a Lighter of Lamps. Most of the time, he would spend his entire day at the Alehouse and the second he closed up shop, he'd be out making sure the lamps were lit for the next day. If he was quick about it, he could maybe catch a few hours of sleep before he opened the Alehouse the next day. 

 

But the constant strain was starting to wear on him and every night he went out, more lamps had fallen into disuse than before; needing him to take even more time to make the rounds. 

 

On top of this, it was becoming more and more apparent that the streets weren't safe. D'wag being murdered was bad enough, but it seemed that no one was above the knife when Mayor Gund was also killed. The fact that he turned out to be a Trellist Conspirator only helped so much. 

 

If they could get to the Mayor, what chance did Malrick have while walking the streets alone?

 

The strain and stress were adding up; causing him to jump at the slightest sound during his rounds. 

 

"Founders, help me," he'd mutter to himself while trying to pierce the darkness between him and the next unlit lamp. "I can't do this forever! Please, help us. You brought us here to get us away from the chaos of the Empire's leash. And now we face it anyways. Can't you at least give us a sign that we're doing what we should?"

 

Of course, no answer ever came except the hollow moan of the wind passing through the cavernous rock. 

 

Then he'd steel himself by reminding himself that he was descended from one of those very Founders and proceed to the next lamp. 

 

Just for one more day, he'd tell himself. One more day and Cylkan will be alright again. One more day and then we'll finally find all the Spiked and be done with it. Just one more day. 

 

He'd been chanting that every day since Honerius' death.... 

 

Considering that we have had a lot more downtime than we expected, I suggest we do something with it! Specifically, get in some RP and help flesh out not only Twinborn Village, but our characters as well. No reason to just sit here and wait when we've been given such an opportunity. We can turn the GM's difficulties into a boon and make this one of the best RP games in quite some time! And why not? It's not like we're using this extra time to debate, so let's make something more out of it!  

 

EDIT: I just get done writing all this up and get ninja'd by the write up going live. ...Well played, Aonar!

Edited April 30, 2015 by Metacognition

[Aonar he/him]

Night Seven: Last Words

 

Rolan was tired. Keeping up appearances among these imbeciles was a pain. Although he had to admit, he appreciated the irony of his role. Getting the final say in someone's life, and the first in their death? It was perfect. Better than what his fellows had chosen, anyways.

 

Still, keeping up the act, being friendly, and helpful; it was grating. In a way, he was almost relived when the villagers came knocking on his door. 

 

Inviting them in, he started with one of his usual lines. "You need another tombstone already? It's early in the day to be killing people. Not that I mind, but usually you come around a little closer to nightfall."

 

It wasn't hard to divine the reason for their arrival. The cold expressions and readied weapons told the whole story.

 

When they failed to respond he sighed an leaned back in his chair. "Well, if you're not even going to pretend, you might as well get on with it."

 

This got a reaction. A brief moment of confusion passed through them, soon replaced by wariness. Rolan rolled his eyes as they continued to watch him. "Please. I'm not an idiot. There're nine of you, and one of me. I can count, and the odds aren't worth the effort."

 

Sheriff Millie was pushed to the front. This sort of thing was her job, after all. She carefully unsheathed a pale grey knife, made from an aluminum alloy; specially designed to kill metalborn, regardless of their powers. Stepping forwards, she angled the knife towards him. "Any last words?"

 

Rolan's eyes were downcast, any expression on his face concealed. He didn't bother speaking.

 

"None? Good. Because I've got some." The Sheriff lashed out with the knife, severing Rolan's ring finger. As the metal band fell to the floor, exposed gold could be seen on the underside. "I'm not an idiot, either." With that, she slipped the knife between his ribs.

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Alvron was lynched! He was a Spiked with Allomantic bendalloy/Feruchemical gold!

 

Alvron (5): Wonko, Neo, Ostrich, Bort, Karlin, Maill, Dow, luckat, Meta
Nicroburst (1): Araris
Meta (1): Jaelre

 

Sorry for the late write-up. (Briefly got distracted researching the relative strength of various aluminum alloys, and whether or not it would be practical to make a knife from one of them. There are aluminum alloys with comparable strength and hardness to some weaker steels, apparently. (The best of which contains some ratio of aluminum, copper, zinc, magnesium, carbon, and several other trace impurities.) The more you know. )

 

Actions must be in within the next 24 hours, and the Night will end at 10:00PM CDT Friday, unless an extension is called.  

Edited April 30, 2015 by Aonar Faileas

[Metacognition he/him]

While I can't speak for everyone, I can definitely say that not only was it worth the wait, but that I love that attention to detail! I've caught myself doing basically the same thing; where I'd stop in the middle of writing, just to find out if what I was writing was even possible, so well played!

[Bort he/him]

Starting in the mushroom farms, notices began to appear on the wall, complete with a small ink pot and pen, hanging from a piece of string crafted from local mushroom vine.

 

They read:

 

"Please update this list as more of our numbers fall.

 

The Undeceased:

1. Temai Nimiad (Nicroburst)

2. Karlin (Surgebound Rainspren)

3. Bortington-Smythe (Bort)

4. Hadrian Penrod (Araris Valerian)

5. Walin (spencer12347)

6. Faliu Faliu (Feligon)

7. Lord Ostrich Malescei Tekiel II (ostrichofevil) 

8. Millie (Mailliw73)

9. Quaqua Qua (Splinter)

10. Jain (Lightsworn Panda)

11. Pifferluke III (Lord Pifferdoo)

12. Cylkan (Clanky)

13. Lutir (Tulir)

14. Levant Nebben (lev)

15. Kwon (Wonko the Sane)

16. Dow (dowanx)

17. neo (neodymium)

18. Acer Tuy (a smart guy)

19. Malrick A'Lees (Metacognition)

20. Jaelre (Jaelre)

21. Kirrah Dotze (twelfthrootoftwo)

22. Llurch (Kandra Skrull)

23. Ella (luckat)

 

The Deceased:

4. Cleo (Winter Cloud)

5. Honerius Bager (The Honey Badger)

7. Axies (phattemer)

10. D'wag (vineyarddawg)

 

11. Rolan (Alvron)

18. Sheol (Eolhondras)

24. Lord Mattias Mountford (Lord Mattias Mountford)

29. Jode (The Only Joe)"

 

Eolhondras is in the deceased list due to the mistakes that originally put Dowanx there. Aonar/Newan, can either of you please confirm this is correct?

 

Finally, posted to Rolan's gravestone was another message...

 

"There once was a man named Rolan

Generally his RP was stormin'

But when push came to shove

That's all that we loved

Only the spiked in this village are mournin'"

 

Villagers, I cannot take credit for Rolan's gravestone rhyme. It comes from one of my allies who shall remain nameless for their own protection.

Edited April 30, 2015 by Bort

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

A gravedigger's funeral was always a lonely affair. Normally, you'd have a few family members and maybe a few friends. This time, there was only an apprentice doing his first solo.

 

Jain finished shoveling the dirt onto Rolan's grave. His former master been helpful enough to complete most of the work for him, even going as far as to set his own gravestone. Dirt was a luxury in a cave like this one. The cemetery happened to be one of the few areas that had a seam of dirt, and even then Jain would constantly hit bedrock. No one had thought to donate flowers, although they did have a reason. Few people donate flowers to Spiked. Besides, flowers were almost impossible to find in a cave.

 

As a replacement for a flower, Jain left his toy panda before the grave. Rolan had given him the toy panda when he first apprenticed him, although he had seemed quite desperate to get rid of it.

 

Bidding his final goodbye to his late mentor, Jain turned and left, not looking back, which was why he missed the red spren that had begun to emerge from the toy panda.

[Surgebound Rainspren he/him]

Karlin gazed out from his small window. Off in the outskirts of town, on a dark and lonesome hill, stood the silhouette of the Stone Carvers grave. He was confused, why was he mourning the death of spiked, maybe it was because this one had tried to contribute to the village. It was still hard to believe that the skilled headstone carver was one of their enemies.  "I guess you don"t choose your side in this, you never do!"

[Bort he/him]

Only the spiked in this village are mournin'"

 

 

He was confused, why was he mourning the death of spiked, maybe it was because this one had tried to contribute to the village.

 

Have we found another Spiked?

[Aonar he/him]

An Extension has been called! (Which is good, as the write up would have been real late, otherwise. ) The night will end at 10:00PM CDT on Saturday.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Um, when is this night going to end?

[Feligon he/him]

Does anyone know where Lev is?  Or why he's not getting on 17th shard?

 

edit: color

Edited May 4, 2015 by Feligon

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

Newan was online this morning, and Aonar was on yesterday. It's already almost 48 hours after the expected end time.

[Aonar he/him]

Sorry guys. I've been out of town the last couple days, and my Wi-Fi access has been sporadic at best. I was hoping to get enough time to do the write-up Saturday, but it didn't end up working out. Things will be done tonight, although a bit late. Write-up will probably come in around eleven-ish.

 

EDIT: Actually, scratch that. I just realized I forgot to give out one of the mid-night PMs. So in interest of fairness, the night will end tomorrow. 

Edited May 5, 2015 by Aonar Faileas