Long Game 11: Twinborn Village

[Kandra Skrull]

I vote for Honey Badger as well. I can also vouch for Clanky. He's done nothing but encourage participation, and I don't find it suspicious at all that someone has chosen not to sleep, let alone a reason to lynch someone.

[Bort]

I'm a villager, and I've not slept yet. I've been too busy.

 

I know some of Lev's and Kandra's reasonings behind voting for Honey Badger, and I have to admit, my vote would be going on the badger cull too (if I had slept and had a vote). That said, Ostrich also has an interesting point, and Vineyawddawg has been known for sneaky tactics in other games.

[vineyarddawg]

Bort is correct that I've been covert in past games, most notably in LG10, when I was an eliminator. (The role kinda calls for covert deception if you're an eliminator, right?) I was also trying to be covert in the MR5 game that just ended, because half of my team was knocked out in the early stages and Wilson was acting like she'd defected to "team Chaos," so I had little choice but to try to fly under the radar and take covert action.  In the only other game where I've been a villager so far, QF6, I was completely open with everyone else who was a villager, though I was careful about revealing information to people who weren't confirmed as villagers (as anyone should be).  I've been very open with everyone I've been communicating with in this game, which should be a sign that I'm not trying to play both sides of the coin here.

 

Other than that, though, I suppose I have no proper defense in this case, since any conclusive game-related information I could give could be detrimental to the actual, not-a-lie confirmed villagers group of which I'm a part, and I won't sell out information about my fellow villagers just to save my own skin. I only know that we had a colossal case of bad timing with Ostrich getting attacked.  We don't even know if the spiked were targeting Ostrich specifically... they could have been simply targeting a random person in that room.

 

If I had a vote, which I don't, I would be voting for Honey Badger. His behavior patterns are definitely suspicious and lead to the conclusion that he's either spiked or acting rather oddly for some other reason.

[Araris Valerian]

Well, it seems that multiple people think Clanky is innocent, so Yeah. I'm not going to put in a replacement vote, but I would like to hear from Kandra Skrull why you think that not sleeping is suspicious. Already several people have been unable to vote, so instead of 5 different people with votes on them there are now 2.

[Tulir]

Lutir crept out of the shadows, nervous.  He had been lucky and clever, hiding out in the cemetery from everyone.  Normally he would take advantage of the situation and try to con as much out of people as he could, but Lutir felt more comfort hiding, at least for now.  He hadn't interacted with anyone in a while, and wondered if they remembered who he was.

 

Well, I am back from my trip, and let me say, I am grateful for not being killed.  I will work on reading up the cycles that I missed, but could someone give me a quick summary and a list of dead/alive people?

[Clanky]

So Ostrich, vine says brought you over to Village square to get scanned.  Have you been contacted about the result from their supposed scan? Also do you know what type of scan it was supposed to be?

 

Also Tulir here is the Dead/Alive List twelfth posted last cycle:

1. Temai Nimiad (Nicroburst)
2. Karlin (Surgebound Rainspren)
3. Bortington-Smythe (Bort)
4. Cleo (Winter Cloud) Allomantic gold/Aluminium-SPIKED
5. Honerius Bager (The Honey Badger)
6. Hadrian Penrod (Araris Valerian)
7. Axies (phattemer) Allomantic bronze/Feruchemical nicrosil
8. Walin (spencer12347)
9. Faliu Faliu (Feligon)
10. D'wag (vineyarddawg)
11. Rolan (Alvron)
12. Lord Ostrich Malescei Tekiel II (ostrichofevil)
13. Millie (Mailliw73)
14. Quaqua Qua (Splinter)
15. Jain (Lightsworn Panda)
16. Pifferluke III (Lord Pifferdoo)
17. Cylkan (Clanky)
18. Sheol (Eolhondras) Allomantic chromium/Feruchemical atium
19. Lutir (Tulir)
20. Levant Nebben (lev)
21. Kwon (Wonko the Sane)
22. Dow (dowanx)
23. neo (neodymium)
24. Lord Mattias Mountford (Lord Mattias Mountford) Allomantic brass/Feruchemical bendalloy
25. Acer Tuy (a smart guy)
26. Malrick A'Lees (Metacognition)
27. Jaelre (Jaelre)
28. Kirrah Dotze (twelfthrootoftwo)
29. Jode (The Only Joe) Allomantic cadmium/Feruchemical pewter
30. Llurch (Kandra Skrull)
31. Ella (luckat)

 

EDIT: Colour

Edited April 13, 2015 by Clanky

[vineyarddawg]

So Ostrich, vine says brought you over to Village square to get scanned.  Have you been contacted about the result from their supposed scan? Also do you know what type of scan it was supposed to be?

 

 

The answer to both of those questions is yes, but you have no real reason to believe my word on the subject, so I'll let Ostrich answer for himself.

[Kandra Skrull]

Araris what I meant to say is that in a game with so many abilities, there are tons of reasons people may not have slept, and just because your vote didn't count the next day is no reason to lynch someone. That being said, I understand where you're coming from saying that sleeping helps the village more.

[Surgebound Rainspren]

It would definitely be a service to the village to make sure to sleep every night.

As far as we can tell there are some where between three and five spiked left. This may not seem like much but if only a handful of people are sleeping each round then we could very easily lose a lynching to the spiked by one or two votes. 

 

this is multiplied by the number of players who are not contributing to the main threads (this will be much more of an issue one the new Qf game starts) 

[neodymium]

Can anyone vouch for HoneyBadger or Vine?  I would also be interested to see what HoneyBadger has to say about the allegations brought against him.  Ostrich, do you have any more info about the scan or your convo with vine?  Anyone feel free to PM me any info that might be pertinent to know before casting a vote.  

[spencer12347]

I am voting for honey badger. He has told me that he was in contact with winter cloud since day one and through pms he has constantly told me things then back tracks on these statements to cover his tracks. He defended winter cloud when she was voted on immediately, lev and I have just seen to many suspicious things when it comes to badger, i believe he is 100% spiked. 

[lev]

Luckat said this at the end of yesterdays day phase:

There's not much time left, but I have something to add. Phatt gave me his seeking results from the second night, and they included hemalurgic allomantic bronze. I asked my Kandra contact, and it wasn't due to a Kandra, so there must have been a spiked seeker.

 

Earlier in the game, Winter told me she was in contact with a seeker besides Phatt and that they had given her some results from the first night. I thought it was a little odd that they would trust her like that, especially when those results included that there had been both hemalurgic and nonhemalurgic versions of her feruchemical power active.

 

When I learned there was a spiked seeker who had been in the Town Square during the second night, I decided to ask Winter about the seeker she had been in contact with earlier. At first she didn't give me their name, but said she would tell them I wanted to contact them. After a while, I pushed harder and explained why I thought the seeker was spiked. She finally relented and said the seeker was Spencer.

 

I decided to contact Spencer myself, and he said he was not a seeker, had never claimed to be one, and had never been in contact with Winter. He also gave me some good evidence and a contact who confirmed what he said.

 

Badger is a bronze misting, and he, spencer, and I were in a fairly expansive pm since the beginning of the game, so it makes sense that he would work with winter to try to frame someone who 1) was a less experienced player and 2) he had a background with so that he could use true details to make the story more believable. Badger was also in the town square on the second night phase so that he could perform an enhanced bronze scan of the town square and the four connecting caverns. The results of the scan that he shared made little sense: they were only for the central cavern even though he was nicrosil enhanced at the time of the scan. This could have been explained if there had been allomantic copper in use, but that was not one of the reported allomantic metals. Lastly he tried to change the tide of votes against winter both on the main thread, and in the pm with spencer and I. I don't have absolute conformation that he is spiked, but I think there is enough evidence to prove guilt.

 

I led the vote against winter yesterday, so I am not a spiked trying to take down a villager. We need enough people to vote for badger that spiked emotional allomancers cannot change the vote to get one of the villagers lynched. 

Edited April 13, 2015 by lev

[neodymium]

I will vote for honey badger.

[ostrichofevil]

According to Vine, I scanned as a villager.  I think that if Vine is not to blame for the attack then there may be a spy in his PM group.

[Feligon]

Nicroburst.

[Metacognition]

In the interest of being helpful, Vote Tally! 

 

Honey Badger (4): Lev, Kandra Skrull, Spencer, Neodymium

Nicroburst (1): Feligon

 

I find it odd that the Spiked are supposedly trying to lead people to certain rooms to seal their doom. That just doesn't seem very effective, as today shows, because it seems like it would be incredibly easy to be found out. 

 

But, I also don't see how or why Lev and Spencer in particular (and Ostrich as well to a degree) would concoct such an elaborate plot just to get one person killed. After all, if Honey Badger does turn out to be innocent, they're going to be the first people that we look at when we're looking for suspicious people during the next day turn! So I'll give my support to lynching Honey Badger today, but if he turns up innocent, you guys are going to have a lot of explaining to do! 

 

Also, in regards to Luckat's message; Can a Bronze Allomancer detect the difference between Hemalurgic Spiked Bronze and Regular Bronze? Or is it Hemalurgic Kandra Bronze and Regular Bronze? Cause that's a pretty useful power if it can also tell when a Spiked uses a power in the same room. 

[Kandra Skrull]

Bronze active.  Find out what metals are being burned, what feruchemy is being stored or tapped, and what hemalurgy is being used in the same room as you during this action period.  You’re not quite good enough to detect blessings, and any powers being used by kandra will appear as hemalurgy.  

 

Looks like you can tell the difference at least between Allomancy, Feruchemy, and Hemalurgy.

[Clanky]

The other option if it turns out that badger is innocent is poor communication. Perhaps there was something lost in translation during the information transfer. Maybe the Nicroburst misting didn't boost badger during the same action period that he burned his Bronze so he only did get the information from the Town Square. It isn't very likely but could be the case. Was this discussed as a possibility lev?

 

As for his defence of Winter it could be something as simple as Winter saying something in PMs that earned Badgers trust or even that he was playing devils advocate (as I am dong now).

 

Still I think with the evidence we have now badger is the most likely spiked we know of so I agree with his lynch unless more evidence comes around. 

 

 

 

Also does anyone else look at the tags for todays thread and think about the terrifying image of ostriches running around with the ability to awaken? No, just me?

 

EDIT: Some small clarifications

Edited April 13, 2015 by Clanky

[Mailliw73]

Okay, guys. I have a couple complaints with how this is going. Take none of this personally, please.

 

First off, why in the storms are we revealing whether or not we slept the night before when we vote?! As Meta brought up before, in Day 1 or 2, I believe, all this does is let the Spiked vote how they want and avoid real suspicion. If I tell the Spiked that my vote won't count and that it's basically just a simple poke vote(and I hate those too), why would they ever feel the need to really defend themselves? It's mainly in their defenses and counterarguments that we are able to catch Spiked. If we're eliminating a lot of the discussion part of voting by waving off our votes to the public, then the Spiked will never have a need to defend themselves or have the pressure of being lynched on them. Not sleeping doesn't mean you can't vote; it just means that your vote will appear to be soothed and will not count. But the pressure of not knowing before the cycle ends is where we can catch the Spiked. So, from now on, I propose that no one shares whether they slept the night before or not, at least to the public. Unless dire circumstances come up where we will need to know which votes count and which don't, there is no reason to give the Spiked a free pass. 

 

Secondly, not sleeping isn't a crime, Araris, as you seem to believe. Many players have roles valuable enough to use every cycle which limits their options. Would you rather have the Lurcher(s) sleep and be able to vote than potentially save a villager? That's a waste of the ability and the Spiked don't have that inhibition. They are able to coordinate all their moves and figure out who needs to sleep in order to know how many votes they have as a group. We don't have that luxury. Additionally, if Villagers have to sleep or be considered Spiked, the real Spiked have much higher chances of finding items that will extremely benefit their cause. Many items are potential game changers. Hazecrusher has already been found. While I doubt this is actually the case, what if a Spiked was able to pick it up because a Villager decided to sleep instead of search their room because they'd be considered a Spiked otherwise? Consider the alternatives. Roles and Items are what are going to save us in the end of this game. End-game, when the Spiked likely outnumber or rival the Twinborn, the roles and items are going to be our best weapons. But if we all spent all our time sleeping and gave all the items to the Spiked, then we might as well give up now. I'm not saying that everyone should neglect sleep, not at all. Votes are valuable, but if there is good reason not to sleep, then don't be afraid to not sleep. 

 

About the current Vine/Ostrich issue: What I've heard through PMs and here have convinced me that Vine is likely clean. The plan that Ostrich suggests seems too convoluted for the Spiked to attempt. If Vine is clean, then his contact likely also is as I assume Vine has found a way to clear him, which means that Ostrich too is a Villager. 

 

Honey Badger, my vote goes to you this cycle. The evidence just points too strongly for it to be likely false. As Meta said, I will be watching Lev and Spencer very carefully if Honey is indeed a Villager, but for now it seems to be our strongest lead.

[Araris Valerian]

Not sleeping is, as you say, not a crime. And perhaps I overemphasized the importance of sleeping, but both this cycle and last cycle that served as a good starting point for conversation. I guess my main problem stems from what you said, that people are openly revealing in the thread that they have not slept! That is a really easy way for the spiked to avoid most of the lynch discussion and get away free. If people were participating, placing votes, and then saying by the end of the day that they felt it was best not to place a vote, or putting a vote that doesn't count somewhere where it won't confuse things, that would be great. But claiming to not have slept and then trying to actively participate in conversation is too close to walking the line that the spiked probably are aiming for.

 

Just a couple of things: If we assume the 20% rule, and our dead fit that ratio, so it could still apply, then spiked actions are 5 times more valuable to that alignment than twinborn actions are to the village. So in my opinion, any one spiked is more likely to avoid sleeping than any one villager.

[The Honey Badger]

I would like to say a few things in my defense:

 

1) In response to the matter of a nicroboosted bronze reading, that was legit, I even checked with the GMs to make sure that it was. They can verify that what I received was correct, and Lev and I were on the same page, he boosted me while I burned

 

2) Not sleeping should not be a reason for someone to be lynched, there are many people that don't sleep they simply don't say anything or don't vote so you never know

 

3) I have Feruchemical brass, when I am lynched, I will blow up and the last person to vote for me will die, Lev, Spencer, Kandra Skrull, they can all verify I have claimed that from the beginning, you all will have the opportunity to rescind your votes is you wish to live

[Metacognition]

Burn away. Mail, feel free to pull your vote, if you so desire; I will leave mine on and thus protect everyone else. 

 

Threats don't tend to work very well on me. I'll gladly take one for the team if necessary. You see, that last bit has me convinced that Lev and Spencer are correct. If you were truly a villager, you wouldn't try to make this situation a two-for-one deal for the Spiked just to spite the villagers. To me, that reads as a last, desperate attempt at staying alive. I don't blame you for trying such a tactic, but if you're a villager, I'll call your bluff and if you're a Spiked, I'll gladly save a few others. 

[Feligon]

Nicroburst.

 

Splinter.

Edited April 14, 2015 by Feligon

[twelfthrootoftwo]

I guess my main problem stems from what you said, that people are openly revealing in the thread that they have not slept!

 

Didn't you argue otherwise last cycle? Or did I misunderstand you then?

Confusion about votes lets the spiked slip emotimancy by us and hurts the margins of the lynch. In a normal game, having a margin of 3 or 4 would pretty much ensure the lynch to go through. But now, we probably need around 5, and the spiked could mess with the confidence level there by not sleeping and voting for the lynchee.

 

 

So the arguments against Honey Badger are:

-They have a metal known to belong to one of the Spiked (Allomantic bronze)

-They presented false Allomantic bronze readings to Lev

-They strongly defended Winter last round

 

The results of this lynch will be quite interesting. I'd be surprised if Lev and Spencer have gone to such lengths to frame Honey Badger, though I'm not game to put out a vote given his Feruchemical brass claim.

Lev, have you compared what Honey Badger sent you to the scan by Phat (I think) on night 2, where the Spiked Allomantic bronze was active? That might make for an interesting comparison. It seems like quite a risk to give out a scan that's clearly only for one room, and if you're correct about Honey Badger, then we might be able to draw something from it.

[Araris Valerian]

I guess I should lay out all the points about sleeping that have been brought to the table that I think are important, and if I leave anything out then just tell me. This should summarize all of the thought I have had and/or that I have been convinced of by other players:

1) You have to sleep to vote

2) We can't tell who hasn't slept from the outcome of the vote unless the vote is solitary

3) Anyone who proclaims to have not slept doesn't have serious weight in the lynch discussion unless they make crazy comments

4) Some people (those trying to become savants/looking for items/some feruchemists) have legitimate reasons to do 3 actions every night.

5) We find spiked through the lynch discussion primarily, with some supplements from seeking roles and PMs

6) If enough of the village is active, it can control the lynch even with votes that don't exist

Pewter is always nice

So, there are obviously some people that are going to avoid sleeping. Also, time bubbles can cause problems for people that get unlucky.  If there are too many of these people, then the spiked can control the lynch by misguiding a couple of well-slept villagers without us really being able to point fingers very well. The other problem is if we have around 10 or so of these people and they just claim to have not slept. At that point we don't have much reason to ask for their input/whatever they do doesn't have any real force behind it. Currently, we are having a combination of the two problems. Last cycle, 9 votes were placed, and only 6 counted. That means that only 1/3 of the remaining players took part in discussion and committed to a lynch, and 1/3 of those were just faking. I'm actually surprised that the spiked haven't tried to do anything with that, since beating a 3-vote margin is laughably easy with 25+ players remaining in the game.

 

Actually, I'm surprised that Honey hasn't tried anything at this point either. With a paragraph long defense and some reasoning against another player, this lynch isn't really settled yet, especially since we don't know how many of the votes placed are actually going to count. Also, I'm fine taking one for the team, so Honey Badger. If I die, the AG had amazing dead doc discussions so I'll be happy there, and maybe send my cognitive shadow to cause some mayhem now and then.