Archer he/him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 37 minutes ago, |TJ| said: Oh btw, happy birthday @Divergent! I tried to pocket-watch Burnt, and I was quite lenient with what is considered as 'discussion post' and this is what I got - Turn RP Posts Discussion Posts Purchases Rupees Cumulative D1A 2 3 ? 5 5 N1A 3 2 ? 5 10 D2A 1 5 - 6 16 N2A 4 1 - 5 21 D3A 0 3 - 3 24 N3A 4 1 - 5 29 D1B 5+ 3 20 -12 17 N1B 3 2 - 5 22 D2B 1 4 - 5 27 N2B 4 2 - 6 33 D3B 0 3 - 3 36 N3B 4 2 - 6 42 Like I said, it could be an overestimate and obviously, it's not considering PMs and stuff but yeah, slight possibility of Burnt hitting 50 this cycle. Obviously though, Coco is ahead by quite a distance. Much obliged! I'm still wary of a teammate having Scent, but the truth is probably the more straightforward option. 10 minutes ago, Divergent said: Bringing this up (Postman Messages L1) since it might be relevant to building elim teams. On Day 3 A, Doc brought up that he had information on which players sent messages, which I believe only he knew that that was part of his role at that point in time since it's not stated anywhere in the mask description. If we assume Doc is village, then that could mean e!Burnt is not in a team with Hael, Coco, and Doc, since there's no reason really for her to send fake PMs to her fellow elims, since no one was aware that the Postman knew where the messages were going. That would mean her teammates are Mistfallen and TwinStorm, which also doesn't make sense either since she's in a thunderdome with Mistfallen with the Mask of Scents situation. If we assume Doc is elim, then this is irrelevant and there is a world where knowing that he has such info, that he would send messages to potential fellow elims (Coco, Burnt, Archer) and then reveal that info on D3 to make it look like e!Burnt isn't connected to Hael, Coco, and Doc. At the moment, I find this unlikely since it seemed like this was the only instance where he had mentioned it. With this info, I think that Doc and Burnt are most likely on the same faction - either both are village or both are elim. And at the moment, I'm leaning toward the possibility they're both village. I'm trying to rationalize why an e!Burnt would lie about seeing Mistfallen visit Ashbringer, and I feel like it's more of a disadvantage to do so? Mistfallen is in a much better position after D2B, so it would have been a hard sell to make up those results. And for our wincon atm, we win if we win two loops and win the final day. During the final day, we win if we execute an elim and I'm not sure I see the value of an elim putting themselves in a thunderdome and giving us a guaranteed 50% chance of winning on that final day if we reach it. A possible motivation would be that they are that confident they could seal the deal and win the game by winning this loop, but I'm finding it unlikely since they have very little room to hide now since all eyes will be on what they do and say throughout this loop. I'll agree with you and Drake that MF and Burnt aren't e/e. And the PM logic is a convincing point. I can't find when Doc first revealed who exactly each PM went to, just the initial admission that they can track it. Quote . I'm the postmaster today, and I would like to continue sending PMs If anyone wants to track PMs sent yesterday, burnt and me were the only ones who sent PMs in the day, and Mistfallen in the night. The differential hypothesis is Burnt knew PM claims would happen eventually so she did PM teammates. Maybe she inquired about the rules privately and knew she needed to spend the rupees. Didn't Doc break down the exact numbers in a later round? I'll repeat my blue mask math which is that the odds of there being one elim in Divergent/Doc/Coco/Wonko are at most 50%, two is 25%.
Wonko the Sane he/him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 Hi everyone! So I kind of need to play catch up as I was NOT following along while dead, but there are pressing issues under discussion here. First, I disagree that the correct play for the elims here is to go aggro and give everything to win this Loop. They have plenty of space to be more careful about all this. That said, they've definitely shown that they have more a aggressive attitude than me across the board, so I'll acknowledge it's possible. Hael claimed repeatedly not to remember that I had the Bunny Hood for Loop A. This is either a lie, or solid confirmation that he's village; I am nearly certain that the elim doc contained serious discussion of it. This also applies to Drake, but slightly less so, as he could simply have been responding to Hael's mistake by trying to appear just as mistaken. As much as I still disagree with Archer's "pop the Blast Mask on a Villager" plan, I feel like it probably came from a Village place. The only reason I can imagine e!Archer going through with it is to gain the trust I'm giving him now -- but if that were the plan, then I have to imagine more people would have mentioned it by now. The idea that Burnt/Mistfallen are e/e seems so implausible to me that it actually makes me suspicious of Stick for trying to push it. I think I agree with the assessment that the elims are trying to push both candidates, and I also think there's a lot of merit to the idea that killing Ash was premeditated attempt to set up material for this. For this reason, I vote Burnt. It is absolutely imperative that we not waste an exe on the Stone Mask. Possible elims who could afford the mask are Burnt, coco, Doc, and maybe Mist. That's too many for us to reliably keep it out of elim hands (though we should still try our hardest), which means that we need another solution. @Amanuensis, Can the Circus Leader Mask steal the Stone Mask? If so, then I advocate that every villager with 50 rupees put in an attempt to purchase the Stone Mask, with a backup bid for the Circus Leader Mask. The Keaton Mask can be overpowered by sufficient votes, and does not pose nearly as great a risk to our losing the Loop.
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 9 Author Posted March 9 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Wonko the Sane said: @Amanuensis, Can the Circus Leader Mask steal the Stone Mask? No if the Stone Mask is currently equipped. Only window is the same turn it's being equipped or unequipped. Also for clarity since I think I forgot to respond to a question last turn: When the Stone Mask is equipped, the wearer cannot vote or receive votes, nor act and receive actions. They, effectively, just become an unbreakable rock fixture until they unequip the Mask or the Loop ends. For more clarity, they can act like they can vote but in the next vote count, their vote and anyone who voted them would not appear in the write up Edited March 9 by Amanuensis
Divergent He/Him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 3 minutes ago, Archer said: I'll agree with you and Drake that MF and Burnt aren't e/e. And the PM logic is a convincing point. I can't find when Doc first revealed who exactly each PM went to, just the initial admission that they can track it. The differential hypothesis is Burnt knew PM claims would happen eventually so she did PM teammates. Maybe she inquired about the rules privately and knew she needed to spend the rupees. Didn't Doc break down the exact numbers in a later round? I'll repeat my blue mask math which is that the odds of there being one elim in Divergent/Doc/Coco/Wonko are at most 50%, two is 25%. He mentioned being able to track who sent messages on D3A. Then on N3A, he revealed that he can see who PMed who. On D1B, he revealed the exact list of who sent messages to which players and when That's a fair point and I think Burnt did express wanting to PM very early in the first loop, so she could have clarified that. It does depend on whether or not Burnt is the cautious sort of player, who'd check to make sure the strategy's 100% solid
Through the living Wahr He/Him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 Had not much time to keep up with the loop today, since theres now irl stuff keeping me busy. I saw a the suggestion that at least one of Burnt/Mistfallen is elim, maybe both. And with the scent claim from Burn earlier today, I can see where this comes from. Theres also a lot of suspicion against Coco. I can go with a Coco exe, but might change, as I will try to reread the current loop to get a better grip on whats happened so far.
The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 1 hour ago, Wonko the Sane said: Hi everyone! So I kind of need to play catch up as I was NOT following along while dead, but there are pressing issues under discussion here. First, I disagree that the correct play for the elims here is to go aggro and give everything to win this Loop. They have plenty of space to be more careful about all this. That said, they've definitely shown that they have more a aggressive attitude than me across the board, so I'll acknowledge it's possible. Hael claimed repeatedly not to remember that I had the Bunny Hood for Loop A. This is either a lie, or solid confirmation that he's village; I am nearly certain that the elim doc contained serious discussion of it. This also applies to Drake, but slightly less so, as he could simply have been responding to Hael's mistake by trying to appear just as mistaken. As much as I still disagree with Archer's "pop the Blast Mask on a Villager" plan, I feel like it probably came from a Village place. The only reason I can imagine e!Archer going through with it is to gain the trust I'm giving him now -- but if that were the plan, then I have to imagine more people would have mentioned it by now. The idea that Burnt/Mistfallen are e/e seems so implausible to me that it actually makes me suspicious of Stick for trying to push it. I think I agree with the assessment that the elims are trying to push both candidates, and I also think there's a lot of merit to the idea that killing Ash was premeditated attempt to set up material for this. For this reason, I vote Burnt. It is absolutely imperative that we not waste an exe on the Stone Mask. Possible elims who could afford the mask are Burnt, coco, Doc, and maybe Mist. That's too many for us to reliably keep it out of elim hands (though we should still try our hardest), which means that we need another solution. @Amanuensis, Can the Circus Leader Mask steal the Stone Mask? If so, then I advocate that every villager with 50 rupees put in an attempt to purchase the Stone Mask, with a backup bid for the Circus Leader Mask. The Keaton Mask can be overpowered by sufficient votes, and does not pose nearly as great a risk to our losing the Loop. You can't do conditional bids afaik All villagers who can afford the Stone Mask must try to buy it We need the rng to be as in our favor as possible 1 hour ago, Amanuensis said: No if the Stone Mask is currently equipped. Only window is the same turn it's being equipped or unequipped. Also for clarity since I think I forgot to respond to a question last turn: When the Stone Mask is equipped, the wearer cannot vote or receive votes, nor act and receive actions. They, effectively, just become an unbreakable rock fixture until they unequip the Mask or the Loop ends. For more clarity, they can act like they can vote but in the next vote count, their vote and anyone who voted them would not appear in the write up Wait wait wait, not that this matters, but they can take off the mask? I thought that it being unable to be removed meant they couldn’t take it off Also, I just realized, whoever gets the Mask won't be invincible until n2. We just need to vote off whoever got the mask on d2 (we can figure out who got the mask by making them do PMs I think?)
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 9 Author Posted March 9 1 minute ago, The Unknown Medallion said: Wait wait wait, not that this matters, but they can take off the mask? I thought that it being unable to be removed meant they couldn’t take it off Ah, that's right. I forgor that I stated it's permanent once equipped. That is correct, it cannot be removed.
Ashbringer he/him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 1 hour ago, The Unknown Medallion said: Also, I just realized, whoever gets the Mask won't be invincible until n2. We just need to vote off whoever got the mask on d2 (we can figure out who got the mask by making them do PMs I think?) Pretty sure they can buy it D1 and put it on N1, then they're invincible D2 onwards. 1 hour ago, Amanuensis said: Ah, that's right. I forgor that I stated it's permanent once equipped. That is correct, it cannot be removed. Permanent for the loop or permanent for the game?
Araris Valerian he/him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 @Archer @coco.pudding out of curiosity, do either of you feel like the other has been behaving in a way to deliberately make the two of you seem to be on a team? Or are you both reasonably convinced the other is village?
|TJ| he/him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 2 hours ago, The Unknown Medallion said: I think, if the elims wanted Mist to be exed today, there would be more votes on Mist. Elims don't go straight to bussing when they have a good reason not to. That means they don't want Mist exed today (or are fine with Burnt). That means they're either happy with a Burnt/Mist 50/50 and win d3 (that means they have a third teammate who can afford Stone imo), or Mist is actually the elim here, or they're putting their energy into a Coco exe, which is my slight suspicion right now. Bro obviously not everyone would follow immediately, that would be outing the whole team (Looking back, I do wonder if I should have stayed quiet to look if anyone would push Mistfallen, but in order to convince y'all to vote Coco over Burnt I needed to post my thoughts as soon as possible). Bolded mine is exactly my point. The teammate who can afford Stone IS Coco. If Mist is an elim, the easiest would be to exe Burnt because that is who the 50-50 is. Not bring another person into the equation. Even forgetting all that, just go through a few of Burnt's posts. There is this urgency in earning rupees in her posts, but there is no urgency in solving at all. 3 hours ago, Divergent said: I'm trying to rationalize why an e!Burnt would lie about seeing Mistfallen visit Ashbringer, and I feel like it's more of a disadvantage to do so? Mistfallen is in a much better position after D2B, so it would have been a hard sell to make up those results. And for our wincon atm, we win if we win two loops and win the final day. During the final day, we win if we execute an elim and I'm not sure I see the value of an elim putting themselves in a thunderdome and giving us a guaranteed 50% chance of winning on that final day if we reach it. My assumption is they put forward the plan to "exe them both" to guarantee an elim death, then push/bus the elim who got the Stone on the final Day for the win. They banked really hard on the village only focusing on Burnt/Mistfallen in this cycle which would have allowed for the other elim to get the Stone and even if we pushed an exe on them D3, they don't die and we lose. Also, could you explain the 50% bit? 2 hours ago, Archer said: Much obliged! I'm still wary of a teammate having Scent, but the truth is probably the more straightforward option. I think this is more likely than we think it is. I was thinking Burnt would not have been the option to give the Scan result if if she was in the running for Stone but what if they were confident that we would go for Mistfallen? 1 hour ago, The Unknown Medallion said: Also, I just realized, whoever gets the Mask won't be invincible until n2. We just need to vote off whoever got the mask on d2 (we can figure out who got the mask by making them do PMs I think?) Uhhh, why so? They buy it D1 and equip it N1, so they would be invincible from D2 onwards, no? *** Cosmetica woke up to a severe headache. He did not remember anything from his previous life but he knew he was killed in his sleep. All because he was absent. He forgot things. Well, it was not his fault! If he couldn't be there, how could he be there? No matter, I will show them in this life. Just when he had walked around to gather info and had made his thoughts known, they had killed him. He remembered a friend he had in another life. A long time ago. A friend he had almost forgotten as well. Mel would know what to do. He would know the exact words to speak. He would make them understand. No matter. He would try his best. He would speak. 1
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 9 Author Posted March 9 6 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: Pretty sure they can buy it D1 and put it on N1, then they're invincible D2 onwards. Permanent for the loop or permanent for the game? For the Loop. Masks always reset.
Wonko the Sane he/him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 (edited) 1 hour ago, The Unknown Medallion said: You can't do conditional bids afaik Oh, wait. For the record, you definitely can, I made one L1. But I just remembered, I think Aman said that you need to have the money to afford both masks. So it's irrelevant in this case. Sorry, carry on. 1 hour ago, The Unknown Medallion said: Also, I just realized, whoever gets the Mask won't be invincible until n2. We just need to vote off whoever got the mask on d2 (we can figure out who got the mask by making them do PMs I think?) Ooh! So, others have already said you're incorrect here, BUT you've still found a way to ID who got it! Clever! @Amanuensis Does purchasing the Stone Mask automatically equip it, like with other masks, or do you need to take a turn to equip it? If I bought the Stone Mask today, could I take advantage of the action order, and submit a PM tonight before it took effect? 25 minutes ago, |TJ| said: The teammate who can afford Stone IS Coco. If Mist is an elim, the easiest would be to exe Burnt because that is who the 50-50 is. Not bring another person into the equation. From what I can tell, Doc, Coco, Burnt, and Mist are all potential elims who might be able to afford the mask. Sure, Burnt would have to wait for tonight if your calcs are correct, but that's easily done, and still means our only window to exe her would be today, wouldn't it? Edited March 9 by Wonko the Sane
Araris Valerian he/him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 Something to point out here: If we assume e!Burnt, then we don’t actually know which elim had the Mask of Scents.
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 9 Author Posted March 9 So, regarding how mask roles work, there are two rules. Most expensive Masks are rolled first (Silver, Purple, Red, Blue) Masks with the fewest bidders are rolled before the most bidders A lot of people have submitted conditional orders but there is no feasible way I could figure out to handle that with 16 players 5 minutes ago, Wonko the Sane said: @Amanuensis Does purchasing the Stone Mask automatically equip it, like with other masks, or do you need to take a turn to equip it? If I bought the Stone Mask today, could I take advantage of the action order, and submit a PM tonight before it took effect? Stone Mask is like Blast Mask in that you need to choose when to put it on, so it's not automatic.
|TJ| he/him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 4 minutes ago, Wonko the Sane said: From what I can tell, Doc, Coco, Burnt, and Mist are all potential elims who might be able to afford the mask. Sure, Burnt would have to wait for tonight if your calcs are correct, but that's easily done, and still means our only window to exe her would be today, wouldn't it? The Stone is going to be grabbed today as in D1, we know this for sure - meaning Burnt cannot buy it and will always be votable. I am not advocating for a shot in the dark like with Doc (at least until I get the time to ISO him). I am quite confident in v!Mistfallen. I am not simply voting on Coco because she has funds for the Stone. She fits the elim team I am hypothesizing as well. Vote out Burnt -> Coco buys mask -> ? Who do we vote out? Who then makes sense in a Burnt/Coco team? No one is really convinced about e!Archer. Vote out Coco -> Someone not Burnt buys Mask because Burnt has no funds for it -> Vote out Burnt -> Revaluate in D3 An idea... @Amanuensis, can someone who does not have funds for a Mask go for it, win the RNG, but obviously not having funds for it, the Mask returns to the supply?
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 9 Author Posted March 9 4 minutes ago, |TJ| said: An idea... @Amanuensis, can someone who does not have funds for a Mask go for it, win the RNG, but obviously not having funds for it, the Mask returns to the supply? No you can only bid for a Mask if you can buy it
Myst He/Him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 (edited) Everyone. Today, Ash, Coco, and Doc can get a purple mask. Burnt and I can only get one tonight. Edit: meaning exe one of them today, and me and Burnt after that Edited March 9 by Mistfallen Soldier
|TJ| he/him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: No you can only bid for a Mask if you can buy it smh justice for the poor >>
Ashbringer he/him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 Pretty sure e!Burnt would have funds for it today. v!Burnt wouldn't. Meanwhile e! or v!Mist probably would have funds for it. But I don't think that's information we can actually use. Also it wouldn't be too hard to prove who has the Stone Mask with voting. Depending on how Mayor-y I become.
Wonko the Sane he/him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 8 minutes ago, |TJ| said: The Stone is going to be grabbed today as in D1, we know this for sure - meaning Burnt cannot buy it and will always be votable. I am not advocating for a shot in the dark like with Doc (at least until I get the time to ISO him). I am quite confident in v!Mistfallen. I am not simply voting on Coco because she has funds for the Stone. She fits the elim team I am hypothesizing as well. Vote out Burnt -> Coco buys mask -> ? Who do we vote out? Who then makes sense in a Burnt/Coco team? No one is really convinced about e!Archer. Vote out Coco -> Someone not Burnt buys Mask because Burnt has no funds for it -> Vote out Burnt -> Revaluate in D3 An idea... @Amanuensis, can someone who does not have funds for a Mask go for it, win the RNG, but obviously not having funds for it, the Mask returns to the supply? Hm. I can accept that reasoning. I'll tentatively make the switch. Burnt. Coco. I don't love being talked into the decision by just one player, though, especially since near the start of today some people seemed to think there was some kind of black mark on your name that I'm not aware of yet, that happened in the dead doc. Do you know what they're talking about? 2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: Pretty sure e!Burnt would have funds for it today. v!Burnt wouldn't. Meanwhile e! or v!Mist probably would have funds for it. But I don't think that's information we can actually use. Also it wouldn't be too hard to prove who has the Stone Mask with voting. Depending on how Mayor-y I become. At this stage, I'm all in favor of you taking up a somewhat mayor-shaped position, yeah. Though the PM identification strat isn't as reliable as we could hope; As Aman just clarified, the Stone Mask is NOT auto-equipped on purchase.
Myst He/Him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: Pretty sure e!Burnt would have funds for it today. v!Burnt wouldn't. Meanwhile e! or v!Mist probably would have funds for it. But I don't think that's information we can actually use. Also it wouldn't be too hard to prove who has the Stone Mask with voting. Depending on how Mayor-y I become. I can literally prove I can’t you know getting max rupees all loos gets me up to 70. Subtract 20 for the mask of scents, and then 7 from the PMs I sent. I can’t Burnt also claimed the mask of scents, she also sent PMs. She can’t either. Doc lost 7 rupees of his buying of the postman(he spent 11 on PMs, 5 to but, but only got like 8 back) mask. As long as he didn’t get a red mask last loop he can get a purple. Coco never sent PMs, and never got a red, she can get a purple
Through the living Wahr He/Him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 When Wahi awoke again in his bet in the Stock Pot Hotel, he remembered exactly what happened. They were in the mountains trying to get a Mask from that mechanical Bull, he remembered someone calling it a Goht. Then Ap had played his Ocarina and now Time had rewound, he was pretty sure that this wasnt just a dream it had happened, he needed someone to talk too about it, he had no idea where he would find most of the others that were there when it happened but he knew where Thistles Flower Shop was, so he left the Inn and got to the Shop as fast as he could he knocked on the Door even though the Shop was still closed he hoped that Thistle would recognize him. @Doc12 1
Wonko the Sane he/him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 7 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said: I can literally prove I can’t you know getting max rupees all loos gets me up to 70. Subtract 20 for the mask of scents, and then 7 from the PMs I sent. I can’t Burnt also claimed the mask of scents, she also sent PMs. She can’t either. Doc lost 7 rupees of his buying of the postman(he spent 11 on PMs, 5 to but, but only got like 8 back) mask. As long as he didn’t get a red mask last loop he can get a purple. Coco never sent PMs, and never got a red, she can get a purple Yes, but you getting Mask of Scents is something we have to take on your word. Same with Burnt. If either of you is lying, you can easily afford the Stone Mask.
|TJ| he/him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Wonko the Sane said: I don't love being talked into the decision by just one player, though, especially since near the start of today some people seemed to think there was some kind of black mark on your name that I'm not aware of yet, that happened in the dead doc. Do you know what they're talking about? Stick wanted Ash to do a reaction test in the thread, to inform you all that me and Stick elim-slipped in the dead doc. Ash misunderstood and thought Stick asked him to inform the thread that I had elim-slipped in the dead doc, which is what he did. ALSO, you HAVE access to the dead doc SMH I just realised xD Edited March 9 by |TJ|
Myst He/Him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 1 minute ago, Wonko the Sane said: Yes, but you getting Mask of Scents is something we have to take on your word. Same with Burnt. If either of you is lying, you can easily afford the Stone Mask. That’s true, which one of us do you trust more? If Burnt doesn’t have the scents mask, an Coco does, both of them can get the stone mask btw. It would let Burnt call me out while still having many people who can get the Stone. I’m in favor of Coco though, because in either situation she can buy a purple mask Coco
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