Long Game 104: The Flame of Tar Valon

[Kasimir he/him]

8 hours ago, BridgeBoi said:

What I am confused on is how yall are telling each other are lying.

Spoiler

It's mostly a combination of factors. But a lot of it is feeling people out and hoping for the best. I stated at some point that I thought someone in <TUF, Polly> was making an Elim slip and it seemed suspicious to me, but even then I wasn't really sure sure. Just gotta live with the uncertainty.

If I'm alive and sane tomorrow, I'll probably say a bit more here, IDK if it'll help you out or not.

I woke up at 0330hrs to catch the Glasgow live show and to try to make some posts in the thread because I'm probably gonna be the NK tonight and I want to drop my thoughts before EoD.

8 hours ago, Terrisman said:

If I would have seen this before the game started,I don’t think I would have ever played. I’m doing this all in my head y’all 

Thirding the responses to you. I CBA to do spreadsheets and the number of times I've done link analysis charts can be counted on one hand. It's too much effort and I'm just here to have fun. How high effort I feel for a particular game is a combination of a number of factors including if I have the time, if I feel locked in, and if I just got off an Elim game. If I don't feel like doing vote progression analysis this round, then I'm just not gonna.

Play it with only as much effort as you feel like.

Looking at the D1 votes to at least get the basic chunk done:

Quote

KelsierApologist (5): The Wandering Wizard, Ashbringer, Steeldancer, Terrisman, xxGaea
Kasimir (3): TwinStorm, The Unknown Flame, BridgeBoi
TwinStorm (2): Aeternum, Mark IV
xxGaea (2): Kasimir, Sart
Ashbringer (1): ThatOneWorldhopper
DrakeMarshall (1): Joe
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar

I've highlighted Sitters for everyone's convenience. Neither Drake nor Polly voted. If Drake doesn't show up tomorrow, he's probably going to get replaced in which case it's a tomorrow problem.

Polly definitely significantly went over. I think I have a positive read of Wiz, but would not strongly clear Steel or Terris here off the votes, particularly since (a) Sitters in particular have an incentive to bus for V!cred, and (b) the fact Polly was willing to make a post claiming she was willing to let someone else be Sitter probably suggests the Black Ajah either aren't going all-in on the Sitter posts, or they have other Sitters.

There's a possibility that instead of bussing, the Elim team just didn't have enough thread control to push back near the end, given the consensus Polly was uncontested as a train, or at least that people preferred Polly go over rather than I did. There's also the possibility they weren't really on in time. Not really sure. If the team lacks thread control, then I think I'd ask what to make of Drake's inactivity.

Rough Thoughts:

I'm tired and it's been a long day so I'm not going to really give read strengths here.

• Villagers Probably/Maybe?

I think Wiz voting me then making a Polly pivot is probably fine. I feel a tad weirded by it because Wiz self-admittedly didn't want to contest for Sittership and also didn't really push anyone who followed him in voting for me so it feels like there wasn't any build-up to it, it's just a one-off thing. That being said, there's this post from Wiz that I lean positive on - I feel like E!Wiz in a world where Polly's about to go over, or at least a main train would either switch or at least have some buildup. His disinterest here feels like it should get some credit. (I'll note E!Wiz used to have a disengagement tell. I wouldn't worry about it but I am saying this read should be re-evaluated at say, C3/C4.)

I am not as willing to give strong cred to Steel but IMO the straightforward view should be that he does get cred for breaking the tie between me and Polly. I will say that a meta-read of Steel for the moment leans positive, but not strongly so as I'm comparing at a brief, impressionistic level to his QF E!play here. 

I have a suspicion based off Terris's place that Terris has an E!range that players should not underestimate. Drakebro, if you back and reading, Terris gives me Moth vibes tbh. As a result, I will mark Terris as a player to be potentially re-evaluated at the C3/C4 mark. For the moment, I think Terris generally has some Villagery posts and was an early Polly voter. I'm not sure E!Terris busses Polly here, but this is just a gut feeling.

I have a positive read of Drake based off N0, in terms of how he positioned himself in responding to me and taking a more counterintuitive stance that an Elim would probably be worried to endorse because cheap heat. I acknowledge this is something the game doesn't really agree with me about, and it may to some extent be a bro read/gut read. I haven't seen a reason to change this, but also, tbf, he hasn't been around. If I'm alive, and he's more active/replaced, we can talk about how I feel about Drake then. He usually prefers to kill me because we're not very good at hiding from each other when V/E.

I generally have a positive read of Jo based off his posts and engagement with the game. Some of it is just very tone/vibes based. I would probably want to go back to relooking him at C3/C4 due to a bunch of factors.

Slight positive read of Ash. Mostly meta-based, and his vibes in our Ajah doc feel more authentically Paranoid Threnody Ash than E!Ash - I'm not sure E!Ash would think to simulate this degree of paranoia.

General positive/mindmeld read of Aet in thread. Have deep respect for Aet's E!range and wouldn't really bet the farm on this, again, constantly relook this read to decide how I feel about it.

Gaea should get credit for faer vote. Beyond that, I'm okay with faer thread engagement. 

• Null

Trending null+ on Storm. I just feel that if TWTBAW applies to anyone, it's probably Storm over TUF. I don't really know if E!Storm kind of sticks to his guns the way he's been doing so throughout this game both on TUF and in terms of the response to Aet that I flagged on D1. I'd probably flip TUF first in that Ajah. I don't want to lock Storm V because I'm notoriously bad at reading newer players due to a larger error bar, I'm just putting my thoughts out there.

Shout out to STINK - STINK lightly shaded TUF but didn't really have a stance. No particular read but I note E!STINK's superpower is he goes under the radar and people just forget he exists. Need the Village to not forget STINK.

I haven't gone over the night in as much detail as I like so I've got a more wary weak positive on Hopper for that N0 opening. Beyond that, Hopper's gone below the radar. Hopper kind of feels alone in the thread and that's my entire take on his N0-N1. Well, no. I actually feel like Hopper not playing along with going No Vote after the thread was agreeing to gerrymander the votes is a positive sign - Elims tend to overcomply with Village plans, particularly new Elims who don't have the confidence to push against the thread. I am going to say weak positive to very weak Village on Hopper.

I have reduced Sart back to null but leaning positive due to not knowing how I feel about him, and due to my being weirded out by vibing with his takes and our history as Villagers together (normally if we fully agree, I'm V and he's E.) At the same time, it feelsbad because we semi-agree, and by right that should be a mindmeld read, so I'm splitting the difference and giving him a weak null+ read instead.

Sorry Mark IV. Feelsbad but null because I do not recall anything at all about your posts which is probably on me, but tired and running out of time.

No real read on Teldris.

BridgeBoi gets a a slight negative for the bandwagon vote. I'm sorry. I accept that BridgeBoi has an explanation, and the vibes are alright, but also, I'm not a great post reader and feel BridgeBoi could've just flagged this uncertainty on D1 itself rather than having to make a post-hoc explanation after the vote happened. In general, I credit actions more than I do posts, so yeah.

• Sus

TUF - see these two posts here where I explain it at great length. Saying it N1 isn't a great look and fundamentally, whatever TUF's explanations are, it's one of a series of protective votes for Polly and probably needs a flip. (It's an action that materially benefited the Elims. Barring a super Villagery post, I feel that just has to be Flip And Find Out territory, or there's a decent argument for it. Minimally he shouldn't get to remain in the Sitter pool.)

In terms of main people I'd look at/relook: <TUF, BridgeBoi, Mark IV, Teldris, STINK> - if you're a null and not a null+, I'm ok pressuring you. I probably have cleared someone too quickly that I shouldn't have but this is the nature of the game. My preference would be to still flip in <TUF, BridgeBoi> - I also accept that to a significant number of players, TWTBAW isn't a thing and you should just flip someone who looks Evil rather than saying that a real Elim wouldn't look that bad  I...respect that, but I'm ok with my Hopper read and don't feel a Storm exe, but probably don't be alive to litigate that.

I wouldn't spend too much time on Drake unless he returns because either he'll get replaced (and his replacement is probably more active and then pressure matters) or he gets removed, in which case he's not our problem.

[Aeternum]

25 minutes ago, ThatOneWorldhopper said:

I have literally nothing going on in my life but this. 

But there's no real other way to Still someone, so I'm trying to hope that the numbers are kind to me and will still the person of whom I am suspicious. There's no real other way to Still someone, save for the Green Ajah.

No vote is safer, because I think that because of something else, the Black Ajah is watching me. If I try to get rid of one of them and don't succeed, then there's a chance that they'll come after me.

I haven't played this game before, so I have no other strategy ideas.

Person with lowest votes gets Stilled, I've been told. So there is a way!

This post is towny I think lol.

3 minutes ago, ThatOneWorldhopper said:

I have my suspicions. I was hoping that by not voting, the Black Ajah wouldn't think that I was inhibiting their plans and kill me, and the Villagers wouldn't think I was supporting the Black Ajah.

Being NK'd is the highest honour for town

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Have deep respect for Aet's E!range

Since when did you have any idea of my elim range

[Kasimir he/him]

6 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Since when did you have any idea of my elim range

Stick told me about it when we were discussing our thoughts on Champs nominees  I have my sources.

6 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Being NK'd is the highest honour for town

I mean, if Hopper genuinely feels anyone who isn't me is getting NKed tonight, that's kinda...  

Rule #1 of Elimming: Never suffer an obvtown to live unless they're wrong af lol.

Edited to add:

The one you probably don't know is mine because the two approximately back-to-back Elim games I came off were all on Discord.

Edited March 24, 2025 by Kasimir

[Terrisman]

10 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I have a suspicion based off Terris's place that Terris has an E!range that players should not underestimate. Drakebro, if you back and reading, Terris gives me Moth vibes tbh. As a result, I will mark Terris as a player to be potentially re-evaluated at the C3/C4 mark. For the moment, I think Terris generally has some Villagery posts and was an early Polly voter. I'm not sure E!Terris busses Polly here, but this is just a gut feeling.

Is that a good thing? Who is/was moth?

Also what is TWTBAW?

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

27 minutes ago, Terrisman said:

But it really doesn’t make sense. If whomever we elect is BA then we lose and even if they are Village what potential benefit is there? I don’t think 2 votes is worth the risk and especially since we lose your (village) vote afterwards. Not to mention that we can’t still another potential suspect.

You wanting to interact with part of the game that’s dangerous can totally risk losing for no in game reason. Just doesn’t really work out

If you want an ‘in-game’ reason to vote for me, consider that there are 5 players who are completely immune to the Execution right now. As things stand, they have no incentives to truly interact with the Execution, because we cannot pressure them. The Black Ajah can actually hide amongst the Sitters easily, because they know they don't have to try to seek power, and they don't have to defend themselves. Electing me to the Amyrlin Seat early removes the Execution immunity of every Sitter.
Additionally, it will *never* be safe to elect a player. I am the only one who will be able to 100% certainly deduce my alignment. That will not change if we wait for 4 full Cycles until there are only 2 Sitters left. We will have more info, sure, but there are excellent players in this game,  who, if they are BA, can use that time to set up a BA Sitter as clearly Village.
The additional information we will attain by waiting will mitigate that somewhat, but it will not entirely offset it.
Finally, most importantly, I do not believe I am going to be elevated tonight, tomorrow night, or any night before night 4. I don't care about that though. Actively pursuing the sea gets me valuable information, and makes the game more entertaining.
If I have to choose between an Optimal-boring strategy, and an Entertaining-risky strategy, but both have vaguely equal chances of victory, I'm going to choose the Entertaining strategy.
It's a game after all, and with how stressful this game can be at times, I have to make it entertaining for it to be worthwhile.
Vote Jo for the Aymrlin Seat!
I promise to never learn how to spell Amrylin!
 

[TwinStorm He/Him]

14 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

  Reveal hidden contents

Trending null+ on Storm. I just feel that if TWTBAW applies to anyone, it's probably Storm over TUF. I don't really know if E!Storm kind of sticks to his guns the way he's been doing so throughout this game both on TUF and in terms of the response to Aet that I flagged on D1. I'd probably flip TUF first in that Ajah. I don't want to lock Storm V because I'm notoriously bad at reading newer players due to a larger error bar, I'm just putting my thoughts out there.

TWTBAW?

[Terrisman]

4 minutes ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

Electing me to the Amyrlin Seat early removes the Execution immunity of every Sitter

Is that true? I don’t think it is @|TJ|

Edited March 24, 2025 by Terrisman

[TwinStorm He/Him]

Just now, Terrisman said:

Is that true? I don’t think it is

if it is, its definitely worth it

I don't completely trust Jo tho

I respect his reasoning, but to me its too sudden of a change to go full on "I'm running for Amyrlin Seat" not to be sus

[|TJ| he/him]

2 minutes ago, Terrisman said:

Is that true? I don’t think it is @|TJ|

Not Jo in particular, but yes. Once an Amyrlin Seat is elected, Sitters are not immune to execution or kills anymore. 

[BridgeBoi]

what time is the rollover tonight?

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Terrisman said:

Is that true? I don’t think it is @|TJ|

Quote

Sitters are immune to the faction Night Kill of Black Ajah and cannot be eliminated during the Day Phase until an Amyrlin Seat is elected or unless they are Stilled.

Right there

7 minutes ago, Terrisman said:

Is that a good thing? Who is/was moth?

It's good and bad in a way. It's good for you because it means I'm advocating treating you like any skilled veteran player. It's good for us because skilled players are to some extent more predictable in terms of behaviour than newer ones - the newer ones are always tricky to read due to large error bars. The line between being a chaotic new player and just being, you know, Evil, can be really thin and it's not always easy to call. It's bad in a way because, well, no kid gloves for you  

Moth's a player who just has a similar approach to the game. Your approach reminded me of her. She played a couple games here, but mostly Drake and I play with her on Discord. She was my Evil teammate in the last game I just came off.

To put it bluntly, I'm saying you could be subwoofing/deepwolfing - an Elim trying to take control and appear to be as Villagery as possible to stab the Village in the back. I am ok with reading you as a Villager for now but I think your range is deep enough that I'm not gonna rule that possibility out of hand and I need the Village to at least keep that possibility in mind by C3/C4 and rethink then when doing their probability assessment. Reads should never be locked in stone anyway.

10 minutes ago, Terrisman said:

Also what is TWTBAW?

7 minutes ago, TwinStorm said:

TWTBAW?

Too Wolfy To Be (an) Actual Wolf - it's the idea that Elims care about appearing Villagery so sometimes a player doing things that seem Evil may be argued to be really a Villager because that looks so Evil a real Elim wouldn't do it.

It's a controversial concept because sometimes it really is true but a lot of times, you can end up overthinking and clearing someone you shouldn't on the basis of...being too Evil. A lot of players and I think this was Aet in the AG just say you should exe when someone looks Evil. I've gotten burned by this but I still do sincerely kind of feel Storm has posts that come off this way - like Storm doesn't super care about how he comes across to people, and that's not something I feel E!Storm with a teammate down and a doc of teammates should be doing?

But I also respect the error bars and the controversy, so I lean null+ rather than saying weak V.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

7 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Not Jo in particular, but yes. Once an Amyrlin Seat is elected, Sitters are not immune to execution or kills anymore. 

He's wrong, it only happens if i get elevated. =P

[TwinStorm He/Him]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Right there

It's good and bad in a way. It's good for you because it means I'm advocating treating you like any skilled veteran player. It's good for us because skilled players are to some extent more predictable in terms of behaviour than newer ones - the newer ones are always tricky to read due to large error bars. The line between being a chaotic new player and just being, you know, Evil, can be really thin and it's not always easy to call. It's bad in a way because, well, no kid gloves for you  

Moth's a player who just has a similar approach to the game. Your approach reminded me of her. She played a couple games here, but mostly Drake and I play with her on Discord. She was my Evil teammate in the last game I just came off.

To put it bluntly, I'm saying you could be subwoofing/deepwolfing - an Elim trying to take control and appear to be as Villagery as possible to stab the Village in the back. I am ok with reading you as a Villager for now but I think your range is deep enough that I'm not gonna rule that possibility out of hand and I need the Village to at least keep that possibility in mind by C3/C4 and rethink then when doing their probability assessment. Reads should never be locked in stone anyway.

Too Wolfy To Be (an) Actual Wolf - it's the idea that Elims care about appearing Villagery so sometimes a player doing things that seem Evil may be argued to be really a Villager because that looks so Evil a real Elim wouldn't do it.

It's a controversial concept because sometimes it really is true but a lot of times, you can end up overthinking and clearing someone you shouldn't on the basis of...being too Evil. A lot of players and I think this was Aet in the AG just say you should exe when someone looks Evil. I've gotten burned by this but I still do sincerely kind of feel Storm has posts that come off this way - like Storm doesn't super care about how he comes across to people, and that's not something I feel E!Storm with a teammate down and a doc of teammates should be doing?

But I also respect the error bars and the controversy, so I lean null+ rather than saying weak V.

actually I know exactly what you're talking about

its an unfortunate habit that got me killed in the AG 

[Ashbringer he/him]

4 minutes ago, BridgeBoi said:

what time is the rollover tonight?

In 20 minutes, iirc?

Steel

[Kasimir he/him]

4 minutes ago, BridgeBoi said:

what time is the rollover tonight?

Probably about twenty one minutes more unless I've messed up my timezone conversion. Say what you want to before it hits!

Side-thought: Kingdom is such a jam.

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

I'd say I'd trust Joe to be sitter on a later night, probably not tonight though  

I was going to create dog buckets for people so people know roughly what I think but, nah  

[Kasimir he/him]

7 minutes ago, TwinStorm said:

its an unfortunate habit that got me killed in the AG 

You did pull off a very nice kill block though so hey, good way to go out  

[Aeternum]

26 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Stick told me about it when we were discussing our thoughts on Champs nominees  I have my sources.

That's vaguely threatening so hopefully Stick told you I'm polarized

11 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

A lot of players and I think this was Aet in the AG just say you should exe when someone looks Evil.

Probably yeah, I'm a believer in twtbaw is often just wifom lol.

Purposefully holding talking about my reads rn. Gl gl.

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

That's vaguely threatening so hopefully Stick told you I'm polarized

She didn't actually  Smh you mfers always tell me you're polarised and then you're not.

Well, good luck Village! I'll be cheering for you from the dead doc! o7

Gonna be pretty embarrassing if they don't kill me but lol whatever we'll deal with things one thing at a time

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

She didn't actually  Smh you mfers always tell me you're polarised and then you're not.

Well, good luck Village! I'll be cheering for you from the dead doc! o7

Gonna be pretty embarrassing if they don't kill me but lol whatever we'll deal with things one thing at a time

I mean, the longer you survive the more the village can implode without stable pillars and then turn on you due to the fog of war  

Personally I lean village on you but I can't say for sure for a few rounds at least. Same as you said about me  

[Kasimir he/him]

Vote Kas for NK target!

I vow to turn the deadspec doc into a live WWE reaction/replay doc!

[|TJ| he/him]

Cycle is over!

[|TJ| he/him]

Day 2 - Consolidation

As the Sitters gained gathered their Sisters and consolidated their power, divisions in the Tower became obvious. Sierin could figure out where to hit and whom to target to coerce their support from others. In this case, she had seen the prospective Brown Sitter indulging in activities quite unbecoming of the Amyrlin Seat, and she knew just where to twist the knife. The Brown Sitter was no longer in the running, and that was one less Sitter for her to worry about.

***

Vote Count:

Quote

Steeldancer (3): Ashbringer, Sart, Joe
Terrisman (3): Aeternum, Steeldancer, BridgeBoi
Joe (3): Kasimir, Mark IV, xxGaea
Sart (2): Terrisman, Teldris Anuar
BridgeBoi (1): TwinStorm

Teldris Anuar has been killed! They were from the Hall of the Tower!
The Unknown Flame has been Stilled!

@DrakeMarshall would be getting an inactivity warning. 

Day 2 has now begun and will end on 26th March, 2025 at 23:00 hrs GMT. Get voting!

Sitters:

Spoiler

A Jo in the Bush - Sitter of the Yellow Ajah
Sart - Sitter of the Green Ajah
Terrisman - Sitter of the Grey Ajah
BridgeBoi - Sitter of the Blue Ajah
Steeldancer - Sitter of the White Ajah

Players: 

Spoiler

1. @The Wandering Wizard - Evelyn Rosemary
2. KelsierApologist - Coprolite Black Ajah
3. @TwinStorm - Melian
4. @Aeternum
5. @Ashbringer
6. @Steeldancer - John Steel
7. @Kasimir - Kamil Lovric
8. @The Unknown Flame - Verde
9. @ThatOneWorldhopper - Alkarii Tay'TerTüne
10. @DrakeMarshall
11. @Mark IV
12. @BridgeBoi - Taimon
13. @Terrisman - Terri
14. Teldris Anuar - Tesan Alruddin Hall of the Tower
15. @Sart - Sartala
16. @STINK - Rasmuht
17. @Illwei
18. @A Jo in the Bush - Emmett

Edited March 26, 2025 by |TJ|

[Kasimir he/him]

7 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Teldris Anuar has been killed! They were from the Hall of the Tower!

Wow Elims that's a really low blow It's interesting as a choice because this severely breaks the 'don't shoot new players, let them have fun in the game' taboo, and makes me feel like it's not the sort of NK someone like Ash goes for, for instance.

...Sart's Elim isn't he.

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

That's a really weird kill, like really really weird.